Probability

INTRODUCTION
Definition - A probability is a numerical statement about the
likelihood that an event will occur.

There are two basic rules regarding the mathematics of

probability
1. The probability P of any event or state of nature occurring
is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.
0 ≤ P (event) ≤ 1 .A probability of 1 means that an event
is always expected to occur. A probability of 0 means the
event will never occur
2. The sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes of an
activity must equal 1
• Mathematically, the probability that an event will occur
is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. Notationally,
the probability of event A is represented by P (A).

• If P (A) equals zero, there is no chance that the event A

will occur.

• If P (A) is close to zero, there is little likelihood that

event A will occur.

• If P(A) is close to one, there is a strong chance that event

A will occur

• If P (A) equals one, event A will definitely occur.

Definitions
• Random Experiment: a process that produces outcomes
– More than one possible outcome
– Only one outcome per trial

• Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a

probability experiment

• Event: One or more outcomes and is a subset of the

sample space

• Outcome: The result of a single trial in a probability

experiment
HINTS TO REMEMBER:

• Probability experiment: Roll a six-sided die

• Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}

• Event: Roll an even number (2, 4, 6)

• Outcome: Roll a 2, {2}

 Methods of Assigning Probabilities

• Classical method of assigning probability (rules and

laws)
• Relative frequency of occurrence (cumulated
historical data)
• Subjective Probability (personal intuition or
reasoning)
• Axiomatic approach to probability

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 Classical Probability
• Number of outcomes leading to
the event divided by the total
number of outcomes possible
P( E ) 
n
e
• Each outcome is equally likely N
Where:
• Determined a priori -- before
N  total number of outcomes
performing the experiment
ne
 number of outcomes in E
• Applicable to games of chance

• Objective -- everyone correctly

using the method assigns an
identical probability

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Classical probability

𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝐸

P(E) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of the following:

1. Event A: rolling a 3

2. Event B: rolling a 7

3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5.

Classical probability
• First when rolling a six-sided die, the sample space consists of six
outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1. Event A: rolling a 3
There is one outcome in event A = {3}.
So, P(3) = 1/6 = 0.167

2. Event B: rolling a 7
Because 7 is not in the sample space, there are no outcomes in
event B. So, P(7) = 0/6 = 0

3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5.

There are four outcomes in event C {1, 2, 3, 4}. So P(number
less than 5) = 4/6 = 2/3 ≈0.667
Example
You select a card from a standard deck. Find the probability of
the following:
1. Event D: Selecting a seven of diamonds.
2. Event E: Selecting a diamond
3. Event F: Selecting a diamond, heart, club or spade.

A. Identify the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

B. Find the number of outcomes in the event.
C. Use the classical probability formula.
Example
You select a card from a standard deck. Find the probability of
the following:

1. Event D: Selecting a seven of diamonds.

A. Identify the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

(52)

B. Find the number of outcomes in the event. (1)

C. Use the classical probability formula.

P(52) = 1/52 or 0.0192

Example
You select a card from a standard deck. Find the
probability of the following:

2. Event E: Selecting a diamond

A. Identify the total number of outcomes in the sample

space. (52)

B. Find the number of outcomes in the event. (13)

C. Use the classical probability formula.

P(52) = 13/52 or 0.25

Example
You select a card from a standard deck. Find the probability of
the following:
3. Event F: Selecting a diamond, heart, club or spade.
A. Identify the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
(52)
B. Find the number of outcomes in the event. (52)
C. Use the classical probability formula.
P(52) = 52/52 or 1.0
 Relative Frequency Probability
• Based on historical data
• Computed after performing
the experiment P( E )  n e
N
• Number of times an event Where :
occurred divided by the
number of trials N  total number of trials
• Objective -- everyone
correctly using the method n e
 number of outcomes
assigns an identical producing E
probability

1
Example
A pond containing 3 types of fish: bluegills, redgills, and
crappies. Each fish in the pond is equally likely to be caught.
You catch 40 fish and record the type. Each time, you release
the fish back in to the pond. The following frequency
distribution shows your results.
Fish Type # of Times Caught, (f)
Bluegill 13
Redgill 17
Crappy 10
f = 40

If you catch another fish, what is the probability that it

is a bluegill?
The event is “catching a bluegill.” In your experiment,
the frequency of this event is 13. because the total of
the frequencies is 40, the empirical probability of
catching a bluegill is:

P(bluegill) = 13/40 or 0.325

Example
An insurance company determines that in every 100 claims, 4
are fraudulent. What is the probability that the next claim the
company processes is fraudulent.

A. Identify the event. Find the frequency of the event. (finding

the fraudulent claims, 4)
B. Find the total frequency for the experiment. (100)
C. Find the relative frequency of the event.
P(fraudulent claim) = 4/100 or .04
Law of large numbers
As you increase the number of times a probability
experiment is repeated, the empirical probability (relative
frequency) of an event approaches the theoretical
probability of the event. This is known as the law of large
numbers.
Using frequency distributions to find
Probability
You survey a sample of 1000 employees at a company and
record the ages of each. The results are shown below. If you
randomly select another employee, what is the probability
that the employee is between 25 and 34 years old?
Using frequency distributions to find
Probability

• P(age 25-34) = 366/1000 = 0.366

Find the probability that an employee chosen at random is

between 15 and 24 years old.

• P(age 15-24) = 54/1000 = .054

 Subjective Probability
• Comes from a person’s intuition or reasoning
• Subjective -- different individuals may (correctly) assign
different numeric probabilities to the same event
• Degree of belief
• Useful for unique (single-trial) experiments
– New product introduction
– Initial public offering of common stock
– Site selection decisions
– Sporting events

2
Axiomatic approach to probability
Probability is a measure of uncertainty. Once a random experiment is
defined, we call probability of the event P(A) the real number Prob
{A}∈[0,1] assigned to each event A.

The function Prob {⋅}:S→[0,1] is called probability measure or probability

distribution and must satisfy the following three axioms:
1. P (A) ≥ 0
2. P(S) = 1 where S is the sample space
3. P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) if A and B are mutually exclusive
These conditions are known as the axioms of the theory of probability .
The first axiom states that all the probabilities are nonnegative real
numbers. The second axiom attributes a probability of unity to the
universal event S, thus providing a normalization of the probability
measure. The third axiom states that the probability function must be
additive, consistently with the intuitive idea of how probabilities behave.
AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO PROBABILITY

Verbal description of events Equivalent set theoretic

notation
Not A A
A or B AꓴB
A and B Aꓵ B
A but not B A ꓵ B
Neither A nor B A ꓵ B = (A ꓴ B)
At least one of A , B or C AꓴBꓴC
All three of A, B and C AꓵBꓵC
Some Basic Relationships of Probability
• Complement of an Event

• Union of Two Events

• Intersection of Two Events

• Mutually Exclusive Events

• Collectively Exhaustive Events

• Independent Events

• Conditional Probability

• Addition Law

• Multiplication Law
 Complementary Events
• The complement of event A is defined to be the event
consisting of all sample points that are not in A.

• The complement of A is denoted by Ac.

• The Venn diagram below illustrates the concept of a

complement.

Sample
Space A A P ( Sample Space) 1

P ( A ) 1 P ( A )
Union of Two Events
The union of two sets contains an instance of each element
of the two sets.

X  1,4,7,9 X Y
Y  2,3,4,5,6
X  Y  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9

C  IBM , DELL , Apple

F  Apple, Grape, Lime
C  F  IBM , DEC , Apple, Grape, Lime
Intersection of Two Events
The intersection of two sets contains only those element
common to the two sets.

X  1,4,7,9
Y  2,3,4,5,6 X Y
X  Y   4

C  IBM , DELL , Apple

F  Apple, Grape, Lime
C  F  Apple
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Events with no common outcomes

• Occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the

other event

P( X  Y )  0 X Y

C  IBM , DELL , Apple X  1,7,9

F  Grape, Lime Y  2,3,4,5,6
CF   X Y   
Collectively Exhaustive Events

• Contains all elementary events for an experiment

E1 E2 E3

Sample Space with three

collectively exhaustive events
 Table of Differences

MUTUALLY COLLECTIVELY
DRAWS
EXCLUSIVE EXHAUSTIVE
1. Draws a spade and a club
2. Draw a face card and a
number card
3. Draw an ace and a 3
4. Draw a club and a nonclub
5. Draw a 5 and a diamond
6. Draw a red card and a
diamond
 Table of Differences

MUTUALLY COLLECTIVELY
DRAWS
EXCLUSIVE EXHAUSTIVE
1. Draws a spade and a club Yes No
2. Draw a face card and a Yes Yes
number card
3. Draw an ace and a 3 Yes No
4. Draw a club and a non club Yes Yes
5. Draw a 5 and a diamond No No
6. Draw a red card and a No No
diamond
Four Types of Probability
• Marginal Probability

• Union Probability

• Joint Probability

• Conditional Probability
Four Types of Probability
Marginal Union Joint Conditional

P( X ) P ( X Y ) P ( X Y ) P ( X |Y )

The probability The probability The probability The probability

of X occurring of X or Y of X and Y of X occurring
occurring occurring given that Y
has occurred
X X Y X Y
Y
Four Types of Probabilities
• Marginal (or simple) probability is just the probability of an event
occurring
P (A)
• Union Probability
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

• Joint probability is the probability of two or more events occurring and

is the product of their marginal probabilities for independent events

P (AB) = P (A) x P (B)

• Conditional probability is the probability of event B given that event A
has occurred

P (B | A) = P (A∩B) / P (A)

Or the probability of event A given that event B has occurred

P (A | B) = P (A∩B) / P (B)
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event given that another event has
occurred is called a conditional probability.

• The conditional probability of A given B is denoted by P(A|B).

• A conditional probability is computed as follows:

P( A  B)
P ( A| B ) 
P( B)
Also, P(A ꓵ B) = P(B)P(A/B)

or P(A ꓵ B) = P(A)P(B/A)
Independent and Dependent Events
Events may be either independent or dependent
Example,
(a) Draw a jack of hearts from a 52 card deck
(b) Draw a jack of clubs from a 52 card deck
( _____________events)

(a) Chicago clubs win the National league

(b) Chicago clubs win the World series
(_____________ events)

(a) Snow in Srinagar

(b)Rain in Chennai
(___________ events)
Independent and Dependent Events
(a) Draw a jack of hearts from a 52 card deck

(b) Draw a jack of clubs from a 52 card deck

( independent events)

(a)Chicago clubs win the National league

(b) Chicago clubs win the World series

(dependent events)

(a) Snow in Srinagar

(b) Rain in Chennai

(independent events)
Independent Events

• For independent events, the occurrence of one event

has no effect on the probability of occurrence of the
second event

• Two events A and B are independent if,

P(A│B) = P(A) or
P(B│A) = P(B)
 Independent Events
A bucket contains 3 black balls and 7 green balls. We draw a ball
from the bucket, replace it, and draw a second ball

1. Probability of drawing a green ball drawn on first draw

P (G) = 0.70 (a marginal probability)

2. Probability of drawing two green balls

P (GG) = P (G) x P (G) = 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49

(a joint probability for two independent events)

 Independent Events

3. Probability of drawing a black ball on second draw if the first

draw is green

P (B | G) = P (B) = 0.30
(a conditional probability but equal to the marginal because the
two draws are independent events)
4. Probability of drawing a green ball on the second if the first
draw was green

P (G | G) = P (G) = 0.70

(a conditional probability as in event 3)

 Dependent Events
A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing
cards. Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is
the probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the
second card chosen is a jack?

P(queen on first pick) = 4 / 52

P(jack on 2nd pick given queen on 1st pick) = 4 / 51

4 4 16
P(queen and jack) = X = = 0.006
52 51 2652
Addition Law

The addition law provides a way to compute the probability

of event A or B or both A and B occurring.

The law is written as:

P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ꓵ B)

Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the events
have no sample points in common. That is, two events
are mutually exclusive if, when one event occurs, the
other cannot occur.
Sample Space S
Event A Event B

• Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive Events:

P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B)

 Find the additive law for Non Mutually Exclusive Events:

Multiplication Law

• The multiplication law provides a way to compute the

probability of an intersection of two events.

• The law is written as:

P(A ꓵ B) = P(B)P(A|B)
Multiplication Law
for Independent Events
• Events A and B are independent if P(A|B) = P(A).

• Multiplication Law for Independent Events:

P(A ꓵ B) = P(A)P(B)

• The multiplication law also can be used as a test to see if

two events are independent.
A unbiased die is thrown. What is the probability of getting
i. An even number
ii. A multiple of 3
iii. An even number or a multiple of 3
iv. An even number and a multiple of 3
A unbiased die is thrown. What is the probability of getting
i. An even number
ii. A multiple of 3
iii. An even number or a multiple of 3
iv. An even number and a multiple of 3
Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of
getting
i. All heads
ii. Two heads
iii. One head
iv. At least one head
v. At least two heads
Q 1.Find the probability that a leap year, selected at
random, will contain 53 Sundays

Q 2. There are 26 balls marked with alphabetical order A to

Z. What is the probability of selecting vowels listed balls?
One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, each of the 52
cards being equally likely to be drawn. Find the probability
that the card drawn is:

i. An ace
ii. Red
iii. Either red or king
iv. Red and a king
An urn contains 9 red, 7 white and 4 black balls. If two balls
are drawn at random, find the probability that:

i. Both the balls are red

ii. Only one ball is white
iii. The balls are of the same color
iv. One is white and other red
Two students A and B try to solve a problem. Probability of
A solving is 1/2 and of B, 1/3. If they try independently
what is the probability that the problem

• is solved

• is not solved
Ques 1. A word consists of 9 letters; 5 consonants and 4
vowels. Three letters are chosen at random. What is the
probability that more than one vowel will be selected ?

Ques 2.A bag contains 2 red Roses, 4 yellow Roses and 6 pink
Roses. Two roses are drawn at random. What is the probability
that they are not of same color?

Ques 3. A committee of five persons is chosen at random from

out of 12 accountants, 7 of whom are males and 5 are females.
What is the probability that the committee comprises of 2
males and 3 females?

Ques 4. A group of five persons is formed from five boys and

four girls. Find the probability that there are at least two girls
in the group?
A purchasing agent has placed "rush orders" for a
particular raw material with two different suppliers, A and
B. If neither order arrives in 4 days, the production process
must be shut down until at least one of the orders arrives.
The probability that supplier A can deliver the material in 4
days is .50, while the probability that supplier B can deliver
the material in 4 days is .40.

a. What is the probability that both suppliers will deliver

the material in 4 days?

b. What is the probability that at least one supplier will

deliver the material in 4 days?

c. What is the probability that the production process will

be shut down in 4 days because of a shortage of raw
material?
In a study of the consumer's view of the economy, the
probability that a consumer would buy a house during the
year was .053, and the probability that a consumer would
buy a car during the year was .198. There was also a .009
probability that a consumer would buy a house and a car
during the year.

a. What is the probability that a consumer would buy

either a car or a house during the year?

b. What is the probability that a consumer would buy a car

during the year given that the consumer purchased a
house?