Chapter 14

Probability

Department of Mathematics - GSS

 Some Basic Terminologies
If we desire the Cases:
Favourable even numbers,
cases2, that
4, 6 are the to the desire or success
tend
favourable cases.
Example: while throwing a die, if we desire odd numbers then 1, 3 and 5
are the favourable cases.

Mutually Exclusive Cases: cases whose simultaneous occurrence is not possible

Example: occurrence of head and tail in a single toss of a coin are mutually excusive.

Independent Cases: occurrence of one case does not affect the occurrence of other case
Example: If a coin and a die are thrown, the occurrence of head or tail on coin will not
affect occurrence of any face on dice.

Dependent Cases: occurrence of one case affects the occurrence of other case.
Example: successively drawing cards form a pack without replacement.
 Definition of Probability
Classical Definition: Let n be the total number of mutually exclusive equally
likely cases of which m cases are favourable to the occurrence of an event E.
Then, the probability of occurrence of that event is denoted by P(E) and given
by
𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑚
𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑛
Properties of Probability:
1. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐸 ≤ 1
2. 𝑃 𝑆𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 1
3. 𝑃 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 0
4. 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝐸ത = 1, where 𝑃(𝐸)
ത denotes the probability of non-occurrence of
event E.
 Two Basic Theorems
Addition Theorem: If A and B be any two events then the probability of
occurrence of at least one of the events is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) and is given by
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
where 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 denotes the probability of simultaneous occurrence of the
events A and B.
Note that:
1. If the events A and B are mutually exclusive i.e. 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0, then
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
2. 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴ҧ . 𝑃(𝐵) ത
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴1 . 𝑃 𝐴2 … 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
Multiplication Theorem: If two events A and B are independent, then the
probability of their simultaneous occurrence is denoted by 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 and is given
by 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 .𝑃 𝐵
Example 1: From 20 tickets numbered from 1 to 20, one is drawn at random. Find the
probability that it a multiple of 4 or 5.
Example 2: A problem in mathematics is given to two students A and B. Their chances of
1 1
solving it are and respectively. Find the probability that the problem will
2 3
a. be solved b. not be solved
 Use of Combination in Probability
𝑛!
We can select or choose r objects from a set of n objects in 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 = ways.
𝑟!. 𝑛−𝑟 !

Example 3: Suppose 4 Cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards.

a. What is the probability that all 4 are spade?
b. What is the probability that all 4 are black?
Example 4: A bag contains 7 white and 9 black balls two balls are drawn in succession at
random without replacement. What is the probability that (a) one of them is white and other
is black (b) both are white and (c) both are black.

What would be the

solution of above
problem if there is
the case of with
replacement?
Example 5: Out of 9 candidates, 6 men and 3 women apply for two vacancies of a
manufacturing company what is the probability that one man and one women are selected in
that vacancies?
 Conditional Probability
Let A and B be two dependent events.

➢ The probability of occurrence of event A given that B has already occurred is denoted by
P(A/B) and is given by
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
P(A/B) = ; P(B) ≠ 0
𝑃 𝐵
➢ The probability of occurrence of event B given that A has already occurred is denoted by
P(B/A) and is given by
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
P(B/A) = ; P(A) ≠ 0
𝑃 𝐴

Note: If the events A and B are dependent, then from above we have
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = P(A) . P(B/A) = P(B) . P(A/B)
Where, P(A/B) is the conditional probability of A given that B has already occurred and
P(B/A) is the conditional probability of B given that A is already occured.
Example 6: If A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.45, P(B) = 0.60 and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 0.90,
find P(A/B) and P(B/A).
Example 7: In a certain college, 75% of the students passed in Marketing, 60% of the
students passed in Account and 45% of the students passed in both Marketing and Account.
A student is selected at random. Find the probability that:
(a) He/she passes in Marketing given that he/she has passed in Account.
(b) He/she passes in Account if he/she has passed in Marketing.
Example 8: A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a dice and reports that
it is six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.