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WINTER / EARLY SPRING 2004 DISPLAY UNTIL MAY 30, 2004 ISSUE #37 com
com
THE SECRET TO TIMING ALL MARKETS
GETTING THE RIGHT TRADING COMPUTER
ENHANCING STOCK MARKET PROFITS WITH A
COMPREHENSIVE COVERED CALL STRATEGY
INVESTING 101: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INVESTING
MENTORS
FOR TRADERS
TRADING DENIAL
TIME-SPACE-REALITY
TRADING STRATEGIES
IN THE FOREX
GEOMETRY LOOK
AT THE EURO
TRADER’S GUIDE TO
THE WASH SALE
RULE
PRESORTED
STANDARD
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Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 1
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Examples: (per contract) ratio*
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to be happy I was just doing what the
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“If I had found your course sooner, I would have
SP-0312: S&P 500 INDEX (Daily bars US-0312: T. BONDS (Daily bars)
Dec 2003 S&P 500
Graphed by the 'Navigator Pro 2.26' -- www.GFDS.com Dec 2003 T-Bonds (30 Yr.)
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* Futures and options trading involves high risk with the potential for substantial losses. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual
performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades may not have actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact,
if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation
is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Comments by students do not necessarily represent the experience of the typical user.
Trading securities and futures involve substantial risk of loss and may
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accounts are subject to commissions as set forth in the 2004 World
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NFA. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 3
4 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 5
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2004 Expanded D RO t Youriness”
C G e s
Edition V D, OW to fect Bu
D N er
R EE Call: The P
F din
g
a
“Tr
I
would like to share with you today stop is close, and the reversal becomes of the high, in steps of one and a one
some traditional trading strategies, a much closer possibility. day range of the low to the thirty-five
the ones based on indicators, the The concept of having a strategy day range of the low, In steps of one.
ones you’ve heard about. You that is always long or short may be This means I let the computer do what
may be interested in knowing more scary, particularly in today’s market it does best.)
about the theories behind these trading where you don’t know what is going to The computer finds the best channel
Strategies. happen as far as risk on any one market. using this piece of data. The trick, of
I believe the concept is still valid, course, is figuring out a way for that
The four Strategies I’m going to especially for those of you who do your
feature today are: math to go forward in the future, rather
own research or your own discretionary than backwards, into the past.
trading. Wouldn’t it be great to have If you take a look at Figure 1,
1. The Channel Break Out (31) one of these strategies running on I’ve shown a channel break out
2. The Moving Average Cross Over whatever it is you are trading and you strategy on two years of trading
System (28,32) told yourself, “If my base strategy $10,000 worth of Euro FX with a $5
is LONG, I’ll go ahead and do my per trade commission deducted, you
3. The Exponential Moving Average long trades, but I will or not take new
Cross Over System (5,2) can see what the net profit is, what
LIQUIDATE any SHORT positions.” the draw down is, and the number
4. The RSI Oscillator System If I feel like I want to go short, I won’t of trades in the two year simulation.
(12,28,80) go short, I’ll just liquidate my longs Figure 1. 31 Bar Intra Bar Channel
and wait for the next long signal, and Breakout, First trade 3/30/2001 thru
For those of you who have because this is the way my base strategy
TradeStation or SuperCharts or almost 3/27/2003
is pointing. What this will do is this: The second most popular trading
any other charting program, you will
probably know the indicators, which strategy of all time probably is the
1. It is tremendous discipline moving average cross over strategy. The
these strategies are based upon. 2. It will cut out half of your trades,
When these Strategies were originally way a moving average is computed, if
mathematically you will only be you have a 28-day moving average
written, back in the 1950’s or 60’s, trading one side of the market, and
when commodities trading Strategies versus the 32-day. To compute the 28
hopefully if you have chosen the right day moving average, you add the closes
became popular, most Strategies were base strategy, you will be on the right
some form of either a moving average of the last 28 days, divide them by 28,
side. and this new number is the 28 day
indicator or a channel break out.
Traditional strategies were always 3. It will cut your draw down, the moving average. To compute the 32 day
long or short. That means they risk you will have with your own moving average, you add the closes of
were never out of the market. This discretionary trading. It will focus the last 32 days, divide them by 32, and
technique is PERFECT for FOREX! you on the side of the market, which this new number is the 32 day moving
An interesting observation about the is technically strongest. This is average. The concept is:
channel breakout system is, it is pretty the way I suggest most of you use If the 28 day number is higher (or
efficient, even today because as a these “always in” trading strategies. above) the 32 day number, you go long.
market gets more active and develops If the 28 day number is lower (or below)
wider ranges, the channels widen, so When larger funds are looking at a the 32 day number, you go short. Again,
the trailing stop reverse is further away strategy that has its own trailing stop, you are always in the market when you
from the market. If the market is quiet, the administrators are looking at some are trading a moving average cross over
then the channels are narrow, then the form of a channel breakout strategy. The strategy.
Figure 1 Figure 2
Figure 3 Figure 4
D
uring the decline of vaude- Nor is it all horse parlor tawdriness.
ville, a certain stage ventril- Several months ago, the Wall Street explain what the horse- player does
oquist found his bookings Journal ran an article entitled “Can This before explaining what the bookmaker
dwindling. He became a fake Portfolio Be Saved?” The husband was does. Shares in Jenny’s Pink Ribbons,
spiritualist, using his voice-throw- a medical doctor, the wife an executive Inc. sell, let us say, for 19 and a frac-
ing ability to management consultant. Both had hefty tion per. You buy one call option with
make it sound stock portfolios that had shrunk to a a strike-price of 20 and an expiration
as though fraction of their value in the market date of April, three months in the future.
the deceased slide of 2001-2003. The wife said that During the next three months, that
were speak- despite it all, she planned to stay in the gives you the right to buy 100 shares of
ing from the market because she “liked the excite- Jenny’s for the strike-price--20 dollars
Beyond. ment of stocks.” a share.
One day, there entered into his Excitement. Financially, is there a Let us say that during the three
reception parlor a wealthy society word more rigged with TNT? For years months, the price-per- share climbs to
matron dripping with diamonds and the horse-player would have fared better 25 or 30, so that 100 shares rise in value
furs. She said, “If you can have my hus- stashing the wampum in a mattress but from less than ,$ 2,000 to $ 2,500 or $
band talk to me from the spirit world, that would lack the excitement of the 3,000. That call option gives you the
I’ll pay you 500 dollars.” bell at the starting gate or the voltage right to buy 100 shares for just $ 2,000,
The amount so startled him that he he feels during a photo finish. He can even though the market price of the
replied, “For 500 dollars, I’ll have him claim myriads of counterparts in stocks, stock is markedly higher.
talk to you while I’m drinking a glass futures and options, myriads whether But before you exercise the call and
of water.” degree-holders or dropouts, whether in buy the stock, please note that there is a
Other “demonstrations of the mansions or trailer parks or where you wonderful “side effect.” You paid per-
supernatural” were known to go more live. Excitement is great but too many haps $300 for the option. A rise in the
smoothly. The lights went dim in a people gain it and lose cash. stock to 25 can boost the call’s re-sale
Currier & Ives type parlor as women When you track the flow of dollars . value to $700, a climb to 30 to $ 1,200.
in bustles and men with waxed mous- . . The Houdini- style magician’s melo- Never mind the. Just re-sell the option
taches gazed at a tall mahogany cabinet drama of the “spirit cabinet” mentioned before it expires.
with wooden doors, said to be a “spirit a seven-word question inscribed on Therefore, many speculators buy
compartment.” In the darkened interior, a treasure box. Let us say a gumshoe “options entitling them to buy shares”
an unseen entity picked up a tambourine reporter sneaks in, gets a glimpse, and with no intention of purchasing the
lying therein and shook it, then picked jots it down. Then he looks at his pad underlying stock. They are hoping
up a horn and tooted it. and remarks, “It ain’t ‘rosebud’ but it’s to profit from the price-changes of
An eerie female voice echoed from got me curious.” That key question: the options. In the example given,
the compartment, “Engraved on the “Who gets the money other people the share’s rise to 25 is a little over a
treasure chest is a seven-word question. lose” 25-percent increase but the option it
Answer the question and you unlock the With bookmakers and phony spiri- underlies has more than doubled. The
chest.” tualists the answer is clear enough. With climb to 30 is just over 50 percent but
Fake spiritualists who give comfort stocks, the sad soul who bought at the the option quadruples.
to the bereaved for hard cash have a top paid some happy one who sold at Great so cash in those certificates
perennial excuse: “If I don’t take their the top. With “wasting assets” bearing of deposit and buy thousands and
money, somebody else will.” expiration dates--futures, options--the thousands of dollars worth of options
This thought degenerates in the seller enjoys a complete triumph on Yeh, right. Alas, most stock prices do
mouth of a two- or three- pack-a-day expiration and the buyer suffers a total not move so spectacularly, so that more
smoker. “What’s the use of quitting? If I loss. than 90 percent of all out-of-the-money
don’t smoke, somebody else will.” Expiration date securities are often options expire worthless. Multitudes of
Yet there is truth in it. One man called “crap shoots” because they are option-buyers slump on bar- stools next
bought an adult movie theater. Subse- not something granny can stash in the to long-shot horse-players. Gee, I don’t
quently he became a born-again Chris- back of her elderberry wine cabinet for see how I could’ve lost. How could the
tian and proceeded to show only family years to come. You either fly a cargo of Powers-that-Be shaft a nice guy like
films. A news piece in the Philadelphia ivory or are shot down as of expiration. me?
Inquirer said, “Purged of its sins, the My specialty--stock options, also called So who gets the money they lose?
theater died peacefully a few weeks equity options--are not shares that last You can track the flow of dollars partly
later.” a century, and the time limit boosts the to stockholders and partly to various
From a strictly box-office view- risk for the option-buyer. This works option strategists including spreaders.
point, one man “seeing the light” did to the advantage of the option-seller. Yet not all stockholders are created
not convert the adult house crowd to Since in effect he sells IOUs that turn equal. Smith owns 1,000 shares of
Walt Disney. They simply took their worthless on a specific date, he gets the Jenny’s Hair Ribbons, Inc. but does not
wallets elsewhere. When a bookmaker money other people lose. care about options. It annoys him that
leaves the business or is closed down by During the l970s, I had a conversa- the stock just sits in his portfolio for the
police, does it cause gamblers to stop tion in a restaurant with a young black longest time without doing much, just
betting and start banking? When you woman who had just received her fluctuating between 18 and a fraction
track the flow of dollars, they flow inde- stockbroker’s license. As she rose from and 19 and a fraction. Jones also owns
pendently of the Dow theory, the cross, the table she said, “We’re recommending 1,000 shares and sells covered calls--
the badge, the H.L. Mencken essay on covered calls.” She meant you should one per 100 shares. He sells 10 options
14 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
Attention Options Traders! Amazing New “Can’t Lose” Report Reveals Seven Secrets
H
ave you ever been bitten by from a couple of IRS Revenue Rulings
a snake in the grass? It is that “acquired” includes a purchase or
unpleasant, to say the least. exchange; it includes receipt of stock
First, there is the pain and as compensation; and it includes the
agony of the bite. Then there is the receipt of a compensatory stock option.
further pain that comes with the knowl- been a genuine, material change in The real area of trouble is trying
edge that if you had only known about the taxpayer’s investment position. to figure out when the “substantially
the snake and where it was, you might Combine that notion with the fact that identical” element is present. What
have been able to avoid the whole mis- taxpayers always have their fingers “on constitutes “substantially identical”
erable incident to begin with. the trigger,” so to speak. Each taxpayer stock options when different expira-
The Wash Sale Rule (WSR) is a bit decides when to sell a particular stock tion dates and different strike prices
like that. It is a Congressionally cre- or security, so it follows that each tax- are involved? We will explore that
ated serpent, lurking in the tall grass of payer is in a position to sell the losers topic in depth later in this article.
the Internal Revenue Code. Its favorite at will while continuing to holder the
diet consists of unwary traders. Its winners. If that were to occur on a
habitat of choice is within the shad- widespread basis, then there could be a CONSEQUENCES WHEN THE
owy recesses of your trading portfolio. drastic drop in revenue. If the taxpayer WASH SALE RULE OPERATES
The purpose of this article is to then turns right around and repurchases If the above elements are present,
provide you with a bit of educational the same stock, then the taxpayer then you have a wash sale transac-
antidote to this Congressional snake- has not really changed his or her tion. What are the consequences?
bite. Actually, with the knowledge you economic position—so the argument There are two direct consequences:
receive from this article, maybe you goes—but the taxpayer has succeeded
can avoid being bitten in the first place! in generating an “artificial” paper loss. 1. Losses from wash sale transac-
This article is going to cover sev- Ergo, to combat this real or imag- tions are “disallowed.”
eral key points. First, we will explore ined evil, Congress enacted the WSR.
the definition of the WSR, determine 2. The taxpayer’s basis in the
when it operates, and what its effects THE WASH SALE RULE—WHAT replacement stock or securities is
are. We will then turn to one of the ARE THE ELEMENTS? adjusted, i.e., the basis is increased
more troublesome aspects of the WSR, The first step to enlightenment about to reflect the loss that was disal-
namely trying to determine whether the this snake—I mean WSR—is to iden- lowed.
stock or securities you are trading is tify its elements, to focus closely on the
“substantially identical” to the ones you definition. Once we understand exactly Don’t over-read the point that losses
sold. Finally, we’ll explore the ways what the definition is, it is easier to focus within the WSR are disallowed. The
to avoid the WSR in the first place. on the situations where it operates.2 losses are not disallowed in the sense
that they disappear forever. A more
WHO CARES ABOUT ANY OF THIS? The governing provision of the Internal accurate way of saying it is that the
If you are a trader or investor, you do! Revenue Code (“Code”) is Section losses are not recognized. The loss
If the WSR operates in your situation, 1091. Here are the elements If: actually happened, of course. The
it can wreck havoc on your taxable WSR just says the loss will not rec-
income. As is explained later in this 1. The taxpayer sustains a loss; ognized at that time. The loss will be
article, the WSR may distort your recognized eventually, just not then.
actual economic situation by deferring 2. On a sale or other disposition; This leads to the second point. The
the recognition of losses to a later tax- mechanism for deferring recognition of
able year. If that happens, the result is 3. Of stock or securities [specifically the loss is the basis adjustment in the
that you’ll get taxed on all your gains defined to include options]; stock or securities that the taxpayer
in the year they occurred, but you may purchased within the wash sale win-
not be able to take advantage of all 4. And then the taxpayer acquires dow. The basis is increased by the
your losses in that year to reduce those substantially identical stock or loss that was disallowed. Hence, when
gains. So you wind up with a higher tax securities; the taxpayer eventually gets around to
bill than is warranted by the economic selling the replacement stock/securities
reality reflected in your portfolio.1 5. Within 30 days before, or 30 days, for a profit, or even at a loss outside
As if that is not bad enough, you may after the sale that generated the wash sale window, the adjusted
have to pay significantly higher fees to the loss [“the wash sale win- basis will result in either (a) a lower
your tax preparer to sort through your dow”] . . . taxable gain than would otherwise
trades and determine the extent of the have occurred; or (b) a larger loss
damage. So it is a double-whammy: then the WSR operates. than would have otherwise occurred.
You have higher preparation costs to Either way, the taxpayer is eventu-
determine the figure on which you There are several important things ally put back in the same economic
will have to pay taxes, and that figure to note about the definition. First position that the taxpayer would have
is higher than what you expected! of all, it only operates with respect held but for the WSR . . . maybe. That
to sales that generate a loss. It does is true if the sale outside the WSR
THE INTENT BEHIND THE not operate when you sell at a gain. occurs within the same taxable year.
WASH SALE RULE The term “stock or securities” But if the loss disallowance occurs
Congress deemed it to be an abuse does not include commodity futures in Tax Year 1 and the eventual sale
of the revenue laws for taxpayers to or foreign currency. So it does not outside the WSR occurs in Tax Year
recognize losses when there had not apply to sales of Section 1256 con- 2, then the taxpayer’s reportable
Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 17
income in Tax Year 1 can be a whole There is even less guidance on
lot higher than it otherwise would what constitutes “substantially identi-
www. PEAKCAP. COM
have been. And on top of all that, the
higher taxable income comes in a year
when the taxpayer may not have the
cal” for options whose only differ-
ence is different expiration dates.
The leading commentaries, and there
cash to pay the tax since, by defini- are not many of them, argue that
• Position trade up to 19 tion, the transactions that generated options with different expiration
global futures markets the WSR problem were sold at a loss! dates are not substantially identical,
therefore they are outside the WSR.
• Trades posted to website INJURY ON TOP OF INJURY
before markets open That is a good lead-in to the observa- The reader needs to understand
tion that the consequences of the WSR that the following rules are not bind-
• See Entry, Stop and can extent beyond simply the disallow- ing on the IRS, and hence each
Target prices ance of the loss and the corresponding taxpayer should access their risks
adjustment of basis in the replacement accordingly. Nevertheless, the best
• All trade actions logged securities. As noted above, the WSR guidance that is presently available is:
and time stamped for can result in a distortion of your tax-
complete transparency able income in a given reporting year. 1. Options whose only difference is
Stated differently, you can wind up in the strike price are “substan-
• Interactive database for with a greater tax bill in Year 1 (when tially identical” for purposes of the
trade modelling your losses were disallowed) and a lower WSR;
tax bill in Year 2 (when you finally sell
• 5 packages to choose the replacement stock or securities with 2. Options whose expiration dates
from the adjusted basis). That’s great for are different are not substantially
Year 2. But Year 1 can be a killer. identical, hence the WSR does not
Here’s a real world example. We apply.
had a client who came to us to do
1 MONTH FREE TRIAL her taxes. She’d lost approximately HOW TO AVOID THE WASH
$100,000 on trades in and out of the SALE RULE
same five stocks. When we analyzed There are four ways to avoid the WSR:
her transactions, we found extensive
PEAKCAP.com wash sale transactions. After we
traced those transactions and did the
1. If the sale is going to generate a
loss, make the sale outside the
The Smarter Alternative basis adjustments, we discovered she wash sale window.
had approximately $60,000 of taxable
gain, not $100,000 of taxable loss! 2. If you qualify as a trader,6 you can
She was not happy, and understand- make the mark-to-market (MTM)
ably so. But she was even less happy accounting election7 under IRC §
when she got the CPA’s bill that was 475(f).
incurred to sort through her mess. The
analysis of her trades was very time- 3. The WSR does not apply to
consuming. She had over a thousand Section 1256 contracts.
trades, and the CPA had to look at
each one of them, compute the loss, 4. The WSR does not apply to deal-
determine whether the loss occurred ers.
within the wash sale window, and if so,
adjust the basis in the replacement stock CONCLUSION
accordingly. The snake bit her again! The wash sale rule is part of the every-
day life of a trader, at least one who has
WHAT DOES “SUBSTANTIALLY not made the MTM election. Hopefully
IDENTICAL” MEAN? this article will serve as a “snake-bite
Goodness only knows. We have kit” that enables you to better under-
zero guidance from Congress, either stand the WSR and maybe even help
in the statute or the legislative his- you to avoid it.
tory. The IRS gives no guidance
in the regulations that construe the Joe Wishcamper, Esq. is a tax attorney
Code, presumably because it doesn’t and co-founder of Traders Accounting,
know what Congress intended either. a tax and accounting firm based in
Nevertheless, we have some decent Seattle, WA. He is a leading authority
clues in a couple of IRS General on the use of legal entities for trad-
Counsel Memoranda3 and also in ing businesses, and consults regularly
several revenue rulings.4 One of the with trading groups and individuals
General Counsel Memoranda5 address- nationwide. He is the co-author of Tax
es the question whether stock options Secrets for Traders, available at www.t
that differ only in their strike price are radersaccounting.com Wishcamper can
“substantially identical” for purposes of be reached at jwishcamper@tradersac
the WSR. The conclusion is that they counting.com.
are, hence they are within the WSR.
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Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 19
The Secret to Timing All Chart #1
e•group
for Gann Students
early-Feb. 2002 and September 2002. If it follows a related • The Only e•group with Archived
pattern between the lows, the Dollar should rebound for at least Charts, Graphs and Rare Writings,
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for 2004 and for longer-term cycles that culminate in 2006-- Available Free to All Members
2008. Suffice it to say that 2004 is likely to begin with a bang.
An ‘aftershock’ could be felt in mid-July--early-August 2004.
More to follow… • The One & Only Source The Serious
Gann Student Will Ever Need
Eric S. Hadik is President of INSIIDE Track Trading and editor
of INSIIDE Track & The Weekly Re-Lay. Comments can be visit us today for membership information at:
directed to him at INSIIDE@aol.com, by calling 630-637-0967
or by faxing 630-585-5701. More information and copies of http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wheelsinthesky
previous reports are available at www.insiidetrack.com.
Mentors return, the three-year-old son idolizes his father. When Dave bought
a new red work shirt to wear around home, the little boy pestered his
mother for days until she finally located a red shirt just like his dad’s
For Traders
shirt. That little boy walks and talks like his trader dad and wants to
be just like him in every way. In short, Dave has started his son on
a life-long path of having a mentoring relationship.
You can see what would have happened if Dave had ignored his
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach son until he was old enough to be interesting and helpful. In fact,
O
ne of the most common regrets that I hear from my trader many fathers never take an active interest in their sons because they
clients is the lack of mentoring received in their profes- use the excuse that they are either too busy or they never had the
sional lives. They regret not having the support and experience of being mentored by their own fathers. The result is a
guidance of a trusted person to whom they can talk about young man who does not have a sense of having people to whom he
their trading problems, fears, experiences, and feelings. What they can go for advice, support, and guidance.
miss is someone who can give them advice, correct them when
they are making mistakes, protect them from danger, teach them What’s so important about having a mentor as a trader?
the secrets of doing things well, watch over them, care about their “So, I don’t have a mentor,” you say. “So what? What difference
progress, and take pleasure and pride in seeing their eventual suc- does it make?” The answer is that it makes a great deal of differ-
cess. ence. From my professional experience and observation in counsel-
If you look closely at the requirements for the job of mentoring, ing traders over the past twelve years, I have found that traders who
you begin to realize that the model for a mentor is a good, support- have mentors do better as traders for the following reasons:
ive, loving and wise parent-figure. In fact, a mentor is a parent-like • Having a mentor allows traders to seek help when it is needed,
teacher for an adult who no longer needs a parent. Just because, we which is a vital resource and one that provides traders with a com-
have become fully responsible for our lives does not mean that we petitive edge.
no longer need support and guidance. We need this mentoring sup- • If traders are heading for trouble, a mentor can help to steer
port for the rest of our lives. Why, then, do so many traders feel that them in the right direction.
they do not have mentors or access to mentors? Why do they feel so • A mentor can save a trader a great deal of time by not having
isolated and lonely, the result of having no one around who takes an to repeat the same mistakes that he made or common mistakes that
active interest in their professional and personal lives? most new traders make.
The answer to this question comes from the early relationship • A mentor not only saves a trader a great deal of money by pre-
that a trader had with his parents. It is usually the case that the venting losses, he can also make a great deal of money for a trader
parent who is the same sex as the trader is the most significant and by guiding him to the best trading decisions.
influential parent-mentor model for the trader. If that parent does • A mentor can protect a trader’s career by providing him with
not take an active interest in teaching the young trader how to grow emotional support. Even the most technical mentoring provides
into a productive, well-balanced, happy, and responsible adult, then emotional support because it reduces anxiety, increases confidence,
the trader will have no future model of a mentoring relationship. and allows the trader to feel that he is not alone.
Later on, that adult trader may have a very difficult time finding a • Traders with mentors are more disciplined and good discipline
mentor because he cannot recognize an obvious potential relation- is the backbone of successful trading. Good discipline comes from
ship. Furthermore, even if he finds a mentor, he may be unable or having a strong sense of purpose and self-worth, which are side
unwilling to ask for support and guidance. Instead, he may resist benefits of having a mentor.
the assistance, even if it is the very finest help that he could receive • A mentor can steer a trader to other valuable resources that
because it is a way of getting back at his own father for not mentor- might have been previously unavailable or unknown to the trader.
ing him. • A mentor can act as a safety valve for a trader who is feeling
pressure and is unable or unwilling to share his feelings with his
A Mentor Dad family. This list is only a sampling of the benefits that accrue to a
Recently, I visited the home of one of my clients. This trader, Dave, trader who has a mentor. Suppose you do not have a mentor and
has a three-year-old son whom he loves deeply. Wherever he goes, you feel that you are not in an environment where you can find a
Dave takes his son. He has already taught him how to catch a ball, suitable mentor?
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STOCK
The Ultimate Book On 1.2207 (13)
TIMING Stock Market
Correlation
s .61035 (14)
Geocosmic
To
Timing Stock M
The Ultimate
Book On
. 305175 (15)
Investment arket Plus, all small moves, will want to reverse 25, 50, or 75 per-
16 18 20
8 10 12 14
2 4 6
16 18 20
8 10 12 14
2 4 6
Cycles Timing
2 4 6
8 10 12 14
16 18 20
2 4 6
8 10 12 14
16 18 20
SOLAR / LUNAR Correlations Geocosmic Co cent in between each of each (15) numbers.
by Raym
ond Merriman
PT
rrelations
Historical Confirmation:
16 18 20
MT
2 4 6
8 10 12 14 PT
16 18 20
8 10 12 14 PT PT
To
2 4 6
MT
MT
MT MT
MB MT
MT
MB
MB
To
PB
MB MB MB
PB 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
MB PB 18 20
2 4 6 8
PB
10 12 14 16
18 20
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 PT PT
1/2 PT
1/2 PT
Trading
1/2 PT 1/2 PB 1/2 PB
2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
1/2 PT 18 20 PB
2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
PT 18 20
PT
MT
30 2004.
1/2 PT
PB 1/2 PB MT
1/2 PT MB
MT MT
1/2 PB PB MB
Trading
1/2 PB
MB
MB 1/2 PB PB
Cycles
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
PT 2 4 6 8 PB
10 12 14 16
18 20
Please remember this truth. Now, show your friends. Tell the
PT MT by Raymond 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
1/2 PT Merriman 18 20
16 18 20 MT MB MT
8 10 12 14
2 4 6
16 18 20
2 4 6
8 10 12 14 1/2 PT
MT 1/2 PB MB
2 4 6
8 10 12 14
MB
16 18 20
2 4 6
8 10 12 14
16 18 20
by Raymond Merriman
In 1993, T. Henning Murrey formulated (his) Murrey’s
Universal Laws of Trading set to .305175,* so “teachable” trad-
The Ultimate Book on ers could learn to trade inside (13) lines until it explodes out (up
Stock Market Timing - Volume 4 or down) into a Binary Doubling.
Please do your homework and add in the 25, 50, and 75%
SOLAR-LUNAR Correlations To numbers between each (above).
Short -Term Trading Reversals Now, every rookie trader, knows, finally, that any prediction
for the future, should be set off market reverses, off the week
240 Pages, 8-1/2” x 11”, perfect bound, gloss softcover, of the Harvest Moon (Murrey Time) and on the closest, largest
$95.00 (postage and handling $5.00 USA/Canada - $24.00 for overseas.) Murrey Math Trading Line (owned)* by T. Henning Murrey:
1993 – 1994.
This is the most comprehensive analysis yet of all the Sun-Moon Logic Deduction: the larger the horizontal MM Trading Line
combinations and their correspondence to price movements in
stock indices available today. It examines 60 years of daily data
and the wider the spread will predict faster reversal.
on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, and the past 16 – 18 years This past year’s starting Trading Time (date), set by T.
of daily data on the NASDAQ Composite and Japanese Nikiei Henning Murrey, was October 06, 2003.
stock indices. The probability of 4% or greater reversals is In 1999, the starting date was Oct. 09.
assigned to each Sun-Moon combination. Thus when a Sun- See Chart # 1.
Moon combination with a high correlation to 4% or greater price
swings is in effect, a trader knows that this 1-2 day period offers Now, please look at the attached chart accompanying this
a high probability for an isolated low or high to form, from which article, and you will see that it is set to the correct trading frame,
the market will reverse a substantial amount in a very short time. based exactly on what Gann said about Price variance (highs and
This is the ideal situation for short-term traders: high profit lows) and Time elapsed based on how much data you need (to
probability with a minimal amount of time exposure (risk) in the
market. This is the “edge” that traders seek! know). This is an interday chart.
Murrey has given you Time set to the Harvest Moon. Do you
“ Ray Merriman has done a remarkable job of isolating high probability time periods need more?
to trade. This book is an excellent addition to a trader’s technical toolbox for short- Murrey has given you his Three Master Squares. Do you need
term entries and intraday trading, and also for identifying ideal entry time periods for more?
longer-term moves and cycles.” This is the age old question of the chicken or the egg? Time or
- Walter Bressert Price determines the other. Who really cares?
World-renowned cycles’ analyst, and President Follow the money: Price will always give you a better reversal
of Walter Bressert Asset Management Company signal than Time.
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Volume 3: $150.00 (add S&H of $5.00 if USA/Canada, $28.00 overseas) March 2002 through March 2003, there were (64) reverses
Volume 4: $95.00 (add S&H of $4.25 if USA/Canada, $24.00 overseas) (26,000 points) of 406.25 points each, so you had (64) opportuni-
ties to make + 2% on your mutual fund or futures contract, but
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32 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
works best, over Time. Graduate School, invited by Jimmy
Are you still a “loser” from 2000 Bradford, of J.C. Bradford “retail” stock
highs?
1929 till 1954: Gann (1927) predicted
brokerage firm, and the next day, Mr.
Roberts, Mr. Joe Prone, who owns two
Feel Like the
Crash Fall 1929, then, he promised not to
die, till Dow 30 got back even, which it
“seats” in Chicago, and Murrey, were
having our pictures made, after our meet- Markets are
did in 1954, so he died in 1955, thanks ing in Chicago, in Mr. Arbor’s office, and
W.D.!
Murrey’s Prediction: 1st low reversal
Murrey asked Mr. Arbor, if “Jimmy” had
taken him by the Parthenon, and he said Unpredictable?
will be down at 7,187.50 in the future. yes, then Murrey said, he learned to find
Why? .305175 in the spacing of the 17 columns
Murrey confides in Jim and Tom on long side, but five of the manag- TRADINGSOLUTIONS improves on
Roberts 05/20/2002: Nashville, Tennessee, ing partners at J. C. Bradford laughed traditional technical analysis
at Princeton’s Grille Restaurant. at Murrey, and called him Moon Man
Murrey established 7,187.50 as 1st time Murrey, back in 1995, when he made techniques by utilizing state-of-the-
down lows on 05/20/2002, since it failed his upside target projections about prices art artificial intelligence technologies
up at 10,625, then – 312.50 at 10,31250. above 10,000, off 2,500 base: to be + that learn from the data itself and
Simple: The last higher reversal lower 5,000, + 6,250, + 7,500, + 8,750, + 9,375 adapt to changing market
before 05/20/2002, was up at 10,625 and or 10,000. 2,500 base + 9,375 = 11,875. It conditions.
it came down to 10,000 and reversed up is a small world.
½ way to 10,312.50, so it will remember After 2,000, the Bradford family,
7,187.50 as Murrey’s Harmonic Balance decided to close their doors. Why? They TRADINGSOLUTIONS End-of-Day
against 8,750 (Key of B). opened in 1929, on the highs, and closed enables you to use this technology
Murrey told Nashville residents, Mr. near highs. for swing trading, allowing you to
Tom Roberts and his brother Jim, who Over the past 50 years, mutual funds
make money in both up and down
have engineering degrees from Vanderbilt have averaged 12.5%, so why not close
and Georgia Tech and in 1955, lived on out your fund, now, if you have made this markets by using brief multi-day
Sweetbriar Ave., across from Mr. & Mrs. much from the 7,187.50 lows, and wait trades.
Rotier, and Murrey lived one street down for a – 25% pull back to buy more shares NEW!
on Oakland Ave, to expect support 1st time cheaper: greed? TRADINGSOLUTIONS Real-Time
down at 7,187.50, back in 05/20/2002. Example: October 09 2002: Dow 30
They have owned a business with over Index down – 4,687.50 points to 7,187.50 extends this technology to day
312 employees. off 11,875 from Jan.2000, highs: Chart trading, giving you an edge by
Mr. Tom Roberts and Murrey humor #2. allowing you to react more quickly
the fact that Mr. Patrick Arbor, past 1,250 x3 = 3,750; + 625, + 312.50 = to changes in the fast-paced
Chairman of the Board of the CBOT, 4,687.50, is the exact low from the highs markets.
was in Nashville, several years ago, giv- January 2000. How hard is this?
ing a speech at Vanderbilt’s MBA Owens 1997 the Dow 30 reversed up down at
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Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 33
.305175 x2 15 times, or divide 10,000 a check for the entire price, back to the
GANN-ELLIOTT (x2), then, ask them to instruct you, every
time the Dow 30 Index moves up or
school’s fund.
Your child would know that if the Dow
CYCLE REPORT down, off MM Lines set to 312.50 (x2, x2 30 Index moves up or down (interday) at
,x2) points inside Murrey’s Master Square a minimum of 19.53125 points (slowest
80% ACCURATE ON 10,000, so you will be able to break the trading width) of 1/8th (.305175 x64), it
PRICE AND TIME ! Buy and Hold till you grow old mold that would move at 1,250 points (19.53125
failed January 2000, when the Dow 30 x64), then start to double after it has
We give you exact price and time Index reached 11,875 (up + 5,000 points) appreciated + 1,250 points, or one MM
and stop objectives. We predict from 6,875. 1/8th, so, a major move up for the market
Math Brain teaser: 2 to the eleventh would be 2,500, then + 5,000 points.
the 12 most important markets power = 4,096, or 64 x 64 equals the Let’s ask your child to find the last
each week. We give you the same, just as 1 doubled 13 times = 4,096, five low supports of the Dow 30 Index,
exact top and bottom price to so, .305175 x 4,096 = 1,250, or a Major between 5,000 and 10,000.
enter or exit. We have been a 1/8th inside Murrey’s Master Square: They will tell you that there were five,
professional 35 years in business 10,000. down at 7,500, then one down at 7,187.50,
since 1967. Gann-Elliott Weekly The human brain is 87.5 % fat com- which is exactly – 312.50 points below
Trading Newsletter will analyze: posed of the Double Helix set to 64 7,500, which is one of Murrey’s Binary
Gann price and time cycles and “codons” of D.N.A., so your brain is Doubling numbers off .305175.
Elliott Waves in 15 stocks, Indi- set to .305175 inside each cell, of which So, your child would set our base
ces and Commodities, the S&P- we have 256 different (kinds), plus your (MM 0/8th) at 7,500, so, we would move
“trading” eye can see only 256 different up + 1,250, + 2,500, then + 5,000, and
500, Dow, NASDAQ-100. QQQ, moves or colors. set 12,500 as the maximum highs of these
T-Bonds, Gold, Silver, Soybeans, You may choose, not to believe me, past five lows, except October 09, 2002,
Corn, Wheat, Live Cattle, Feeder with your present thought patterns, or on Murrey’s Birthday, which was the last
Cattle and Live Hogs. This report your twisted words from a “losing” trad- exact low reversal in the Dow 30 Index
is sent via E-mail every week. ing habit, but your “birth brain” accepts since 6,875, 1997 lows, which are exactly
Sign up today for the free 2 week what I say, before you hear it. You 312.5 points difference, or 1/8th higher
trial! confuse the simple truth with averaging with The Murrey Math Trading System.
indicators. Your child already has 5,000 marked as
Ask your child what .305175 (x2) 14 being .305175 x14, so 6,875 1997 lows
800-288-4266 times equals? Answer: 5,000. (minus 312.50 below 7,500) added up +
They have it if they just doubled 5,000 = 11,875, which is the exact high in
TWO WEEK FREE TRIAL .305175 15 times, or divided 10,000 in the Dow 30 Index in January 2000, which
½ 15 times. is Murrey’s 7/8th line (yellow) fast reverse
www.gann-elliott.com They are using either inductive or down, which it did, and it is still lower.
deductive reasoning. Please explain the 1993: Murrey said: fastest reverses off:
difference. down off (yellow) 7/8th, + 1/8th, and up off
6,875, which is – 312.50 below 7,500. It If your child is having trouble – 1/8th and 1/8th: Chart 2.
moved up + 5,000 points to 11,875 Jan with their calculations, please have Murrey Math Trading System: 1993
2000, then fell: them contact Ryan Waring (13) at – 1994: predicted (in advance), exact all
Chart #4. ryan@murreymath.com. time high in Dow 30 Index six years in
Do you want to (change) from random Declaration of Appreciation: Any advance off .305175, off Time and Price
measurements, to set your (s/r) lines? school may request Murrey’s software set to 1st week in October and Murrey’s
Could you trust your child to multiply at full price, then, Murrey will make out Universal Numbers.
The Murrey Math Real Time Software
I
t is the desire of Traders World Magazine that the magic of astrology
should become available to as many people as possible as inexpen- October 09, 2002, was the exact low
sively as possible. Traders World will have a professional astrology reversal for all major indexes all over the
report done for you. The professional report is approximately 30 pages trading world. Every guru has to point it
beautifully presented in columns with beautiful fonts covering both your personal and out for the next ten trading years.
professional life. You can use the professional part of the report to develop your talents, The October 09, 2003 high reversal
so you will be better able to attain your desired growth in your profession. Problems can (interday) for S&P 500 Cash Index was
be avoided and transformed into positives through insight and wise action. The personal 1,046.87, then the exact high reversal for
part of the report given will deal with your identity, emotion, love, destiny, etc. Another the S&P 100 Cash Index was 523.43: ½?
section of the report deals with the major times of change in your life, showing clearly in October 09, 2002 – 7,187.50 interday
graphic form the months when these changes are the strongest. Through this timing you low and October 09, 2003 closing high
will know what to do and what not to do during these changes. The report is $19.95 plus – 9,687.50, equals 2,500, or .305175 x2
$3.00 shipping and will be sent to you by U.S. Priority Mail. Without any extra charge. To (13 times), which is 8th grade math for
receive the report fill out the following form: Murrey.
Birthdate______________________________ Time of Birth________________ Please go back as many years as you
City of Birth_______________________State_______Country______________
Name___________________________________________________________
like, and look at major market reverses
Address_________________________________________________________ the 1st week of October, or 3, 6, or nine
City___________________________________State_______Zip____________ 12, 15 or 18 months from this starting
Telephone_______________________________________________________ point.
Payment Method __Check Enc. __VISA __MC __AMAX You will be surprised when you back
Credit Card #____________________________________________Exp._____ test any market, how many major Price
Traders World, 2508 W. Grayrock St, Springfield, MO 65810 reverses are off .305175 doubled x2, x2,
x2, etc.
34 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
Murrey’s Master Square 1,000, and
its Harmonic Internal Octaves, will
accurately predict, present and futures
MURREY MATH SUPPLIES
reverses, down to .975 of one point, for
this market (ES04H), so you may know The MurreyMath Trading Frame software program will automatically
(just before the market opens) support and decide for you if a market is Over Bought or Over Sold, and automatically
resistance. display the Trading Strategy whenever the Daily Price Action
Most traders are confused when mar-
kets run past their Gann 0/8th or 8/8th. The MurreyMath Trading Frame Software
Rookies believe in the Breakout “theo- • All Gann Lines (8/8ths) • Set Parallel Momentum Lines
ry” that works only 43% of the time. • All Vertical Time Lines • Set Speed Angles (7)
• All Squares in Time Lines • Set Learning Mode Data
The entire trading world never (ever) • Present “Best Entry Price”
• Entry Price Points
considered knowing what the + 1/8th, + 2/ • Set all Overbought/Oversold Lines • Present Daily Volume differential
8th, - 1/8th, or – 2/8th are affecting markets • Set 5 Circles of Conflict • Sell 50.% of Position Price Points
interday, before T. Henning Murrey dis-
covered this truth in 1993: Chart #2. PRICE $875.00
These two areas are called: End-of-Day version includes: Software,
1) Over Bought (on highs), Murrey Math Book, CD Learning Lessons & EMail Updates
2) OverSold, (on lows), which
means that if they don’t break- Murrey Math Book 60 Day Software Trial
out, they want to reverse and alone & credit for full version
try and touch the “current” MM $78.00 $200.00
4/8th trading line.
Now, if it closes above or below our
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1-800-288-4266
www.tradersworld.com (order on-line)
Chart #3.
Answer: the trading frame “doubles” have been a strong sell off. It didn’t hap-
up or down, depending which end was This is a Major Internal Octave inside
Murrey’s Square 1,000 – 2,000. 1,125 is pen.*
exceeded. Why expect more than a + 2/8th move
But, if the “current” MM trading frame actually MM 1/8th or the key of “C” inside
Murrey’s Master Square. in either direction for ½ your contracts?
is not violated, we simply make our trades Greed wins over need?
off what the day offers set to your toler- If you grasp the 1st MM 1/8th (inside
1,000) you will be able to deduct how our Murrey’s Momentum Lines:
ance to “see” the trading frame on its saf- Please look at the 45 degree angled
est scale. real time software program sets today’s
trading frame 8/8th. momentum lines, moving to the right (up
Proof: Chart #2 and Chart #3 (OEX). and down). This market already knew its
Why imagine future “breakouts” when You “see that this market (Chart #1)
reversed (up) the day before, off 1,115, “bounces” (off these angled lines) without
you know the exact price it takes to shift
the frame (up or down)? Chart #2 and which is one of the “fives” Gann warned
Chart #3. all expert traders reverse off interday. SPECIAL STOCK
7,187.50 MM – 2/8th October 10 2002 If you don’t know the significance of MARKET REPORT 1 & 2
up to 9,062.50 at + 2/8th = 1,875 points. the “fives” we shall pass it on to you. Here is a once in a lifetime deal that you cer-
Both numbers forced the Dow Prices in Please look how this market was tainly do not want to miss!
bought up (five times) on higher lows Hi, my name is Larry Jacobs, I am editor
the direction of 8,125, till it can close of Traders World magazine. I know that you
above 9,062.50 4 to 7 days in a row. off MM Trading Lines. Five times in a are BOMBARDED with lame “market trading
row, this market was bought higher + schemes” on the internet all the time. You
Please look at our chart (#1) and find 1/8th higher than the last low. 87.5% of probably get a new promise of wealth every
all traders will not take these higher lows few hours in your e-mail box. If you’re like me
MM 4/8th – 1,121.09. Gann said to short you probably have deleted most of them at a
up at 4/8th, so we made four short trades (long) trades. glance. I have good news for you.
against moves up to this number (trusting You have been taught that the safest Mr. Ferrera, who has written several maga-
Murrey’s Numbers). trade is always off the double or triple zine articles for us, has put together a unique
bottom. stock market report that clearly shows how
This week our market is trying move two dominant long-term cycle patterns have
up toward MM 8/8th 1,125 set Oct. 09 Gann said to buy the third trade in any predicted every major Bull & Bear Market for
2003. direction, so Buy C, should have been a the past century. Mr. Ferrera then graphically
strong up move, just as Short C should projects this cyclic model 16 years into the fu-
ture and then describes how the stock market
is likely to unfold over the next 100-years!
In all my years at Tradersworld Magazine,
I have never seen anything like this report!
This information is absolutely invaluable for
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PESAVENTO
T here is an old Chinese proverb
that states one picture is worth a
thousand words. This is certainly
true when you look at the Euro currency
chart. One of our favorite patterns, the
to 11,000
Does this mean this is a top in the
Euro Currency? Of course not! It means
there is a probability of a top in the
Butterfly pattern, is forming as 2003 Euro. We deal in probabilities - not cer-
_______________ draws to an end. Butterfly patterns are tainties. The ultimate job of the trading
unique because they are formed by mul- strategist is to control risk?
tiple price swings that conform to the It is the only variable that can be
WILL TEACH numbers intrinsic to Sacred Geometry, controlled. We never know how much
including the Fibonacci summation we will make on a trade and we never
series. know which trades will be successful.
Every year since 2000 I select a Risk is the only thing you can control.
YOU TO trade of the year and all have been But- Remember the words of the great
terfly patterns. Here is a summary of the Amos Barr Hostetter, one of the found-
past Butterfly patterns that have been ers of Commodity Corporation and
chosen as trades of the year; mentor to many of the Market Wizards -
“TRADE LIKE A PRO” “Take care of your losses and the profits
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Mars
Uranus
|
|
Saturn________________________Venus
Mercury
Uranus
|
|
Saturn________________________Moon
Cotton Low June 25th 1927
So here we have Mercury replacing Mars and the Moon
replacing Venus. This was the only time in the whole price
Swing move where any planets could reproduce the original
pattern that was at the low.
Trading S+P Sept 1 2000 High to March 12 2003 Low
Chair The articles above were written in 1999 and early 2000. I
thought it was time to do a follow up showing how the tech-
nique has timed to within one and two days two major lows
This chair is perfect for the trader who needs excellent back sup-
port. Designed for a trader who sits on a chair for long periods
on the S+P since the high of Sept 1 2000. In this case the
of time. No comparison to any other chair. For more information pattern at the high in 2000 was a T square (the same as in the
please go to: www.tradersworld.com soybeans above) The pivotal planet in this S+P example is
Pluto. At the lows planets will come in and reproduce the
800-288-4266 pattern made at the high.
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* E-Mini * E-Naz * Euro Stoxx * Dax * FTSE The S+P had a major low on March 12th 2003.
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tion surely there must have been some more of the same
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40 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
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take are based upon their own set of money. (Get all the back articles on CD which
associations with what is going on Confident that they can make includes hundereds of articles, charts,
in the world outside of them. These money in the market. and illustrations from the archives of
associations are based upon past Not afraid to take a loss. the past 37 issues of Traders World.
experiences and a person’s beliefs Patient - waits for opportunities.
about himself and the task at hand. Uses a highly planned strategy. Name ___________________________
The world consists of inputs that Is well prepared, done his home- Address__________________________
make people feel and they respond. work.
To relate this to trading, winning Measures the risk/reward ratio of City_____________________________
traders and losing traders experience every trade. State ________ Zip________________
the trading environment differently.
It makes them feel different and as a Losing Traders: Email____________________________
result their actions consistently vary. Never define a loss. Check MC Visa AMAX
In psychological terms, they inter- Locked into a narrow belief sys-
pret the market differently because tem. Card#___________________Exp._____
they have a separate belief system Hesitate to make a trade. Traders World Magazine
in the way that they see themselves Do not stick to a system. 800-288-4266
2508 W. Grayrock St. Springfield, MO 65810
relative to the stock market. Trade by whim.
Trade by emotion.
Let’s list these beliefs and actions Have no consistent strategy.
below. Belief statements that differ- Do not practice risk management Gilbert Steele’s
ent traders can make: More interested in proving them- Time & Dimension
selves right then being a success.
Winning Traders on DVD.
The markets provide an opportu- Financial markets are structured
nity. in such a way that make it very
The markets exist to give me difficult for someone to approach
profits. them with a confident psyche; and
If I get stopped out then I have to that is why it is so difficult for most
reevaluate the trade. people to make money trading them.
If the market doesn’t do what I Almost all environments - the work-
expect then I must reconsider. place, family, and friends - provide
I’ll take one trade at a time. external forces that limit a person’s
I don’t have to be perfect; I just behavior. They provide a set of rules
have to do my best. of what is right and wrong and what
Money is not that important. actions are to be rewarded or pun-
Losing is part of the process of ished. This is not true for the stock
making money. market.
Trading is a game, I know I can The stock market does not care if
win. you make or lose money. The mar-
Every setback provides me with ket has no control over you. Since
new market information. the market does not exert any exter-
I can wait for an opportunity to nal control over your actions you
come. have to fashion your own system of
rules and have the discipline to obey Learn about the time and dimension
Losing Traders them in order to be successful. No of the markets. How does Gann’s
I must be in the market now. one else will do it for you. You have Square of 9, Eliott Wave, Fibonacci,
all work in to it. Audio and visual
If I lose on this trade I am a to have the confidence to take this presentation by Gilbert Steele. Price
loser. responsibility yourself. It takes enor- is just $49.95 plus $6.95 S&H.
If I wait for my trading rules I’ll mous self-control and discipline.
miss out. Most people cannot take this 800-288-4266
If I get stopped out I have bad approach. Instead they construct a
luck. fantasy in which the market pro- Traders World
I can’t lose money. vides them with future riches. They 2508 W. Grayrock St.
The market makers got me again. transplant these fantasies on to the
Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 45
individual stocks that they purchase a fear stricken psyche to one capable
and have difficulty confronting the of building enough confidence to
reality of being wrong. When events make money in the market is to first
don’t match their illusions they believe in oneself and develop a
simply ignore them. If a stock they strategy that consists of strict money
bought drops below their purchase management techniques. I’ll discuss
price they refuse to reject the fan- how I have done this later. But, once
tasy that their decision to purchase you have a strategy in place you have
the stock will make them money to have the fortitude to continue to
and instead convince themselves believe in it when you suffer losing
that it is a winner that merely isn’t trades. Losses are a part of the game.
in favor yet. The way to make money is to accept
However, stocks do not make them and to use money management
successful traders money. They do techniques to keep your winners
it themselves. Instead of believing larger than your losers.
in the power of stocks, they believe You have to move away from a
in the viability of their own trading mindset that stocks will make you
strategy. They have faith that their rich and believe that your trading
own disciplined interaction with the method will make you money. Then
stock market will make them money you must come to realize and hold
and not the other way around. The the belief that being right or wrong
decision-making freedom the stock on each individual trade does not
market gives ruins most active matter. You have to be able to move
investors, but handsomely rewards through the adversity of losing trades
the few prudent traders. and hold the faith that you will make
As I said earlier it takes extreme money in the long run. This is why
confidence to execute a well-planned people find it so difficult. People
trading strategy and most people focus too much on the individual
cannot find it. Instead, they often trades and hold unrealistic fantasies
experience intense anxiety in the about them, while they cannot take
market. They may come to believe responsibility for the decisions that
that the markets are rigged against go wrong. The worst ones take it
them. The market doesn’t cause this. personally. Most never understand
It’s their lack of strategy that twists what is required to succeed.
them into emotional knots. The bad news in all of this
What one has to do to move from is that if you are trying to generate
large percentage returns on your
account the odds are stacked against
you. The odds of someone starting
small and making a lot of money in
the stock market are probably the
equivalent of a rookie league base-
ball player making it into the big
leagues. The good news is that most
people trade recklessly, on pure
emotions, and with little or no strat-
egy so the competition isn’t so hot.
Dedication and following a sound
strategy can go a long way. I try to
demonstrate that and encourage you
in that direction with this newsletter
and website.
To read the Odean studies yourself
click this link:
http://www.gsm.ucdavis.edu/
~odean/papers/returns/returns.html
Mike Swanson can be reached at
TimingWallStreet.Com
www.ld.net/?uoi8la
Ā ̀
46 Winter / Early Spring 2004 • Traders World Magazine
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Despite the bear market there have been stock Go to TimingWallStreet.Com and try our
groups that have gone up. In 2000 tobacco, free trial. Our head editor, Michael Swanson,
utility, and health care stocks bucked the mar- has generated a gain of 800% In his personal
ket to go up30%, 50% and in some cases even account in the past 4 years. Find out what
over 100% while the tech stocks crashed. Last he is buying and selling right now. His
year auto dealerships and auto parts stocks, record includes issuing sell and short warn-
such as Autozone, more than doubled while ings on the Nasdaq at major market tops in
the rest of the stock market tanked. And this September, 2000, January 30, 2001, August
year it is gold stocks that are running wild and 15, 2001, and January 14, 2002. Each of
will likely to continue to do so for the these warning came at the end of broad
rest of the year. market advances and were used by
Mike to enter short positions in
The world and the economy are technology stocks.
constantly changing and in
the stock market sector rota- Mike combines a technical and
tion is the name of the game. fundamental approach to invest-
Money is made not by being ing, going long only in stocks that
a bag holder of falling stocks are in the top performing sectors
while insiders cash out, but of the market and using fundamen-
by going long in the top per- tal analysis to spotlight overpriced
forming sectors and staying out and scandalous stocks. In 2001
of the worst sectors. And during Mike exposed a stock scam operation
market downturns you can profit that manipulated the shares of a com-
by short selling. pany called GenesisIntermedia (GENI). The
operation was run by Adan Khashoggi, an
Despite what Wall Street says, the stock mar- infamous international arms dealer wanted
ket is not on the verge of beginning a new bull by the government of Thailand for bank
market. After this bear market ends it will fraud, a convicted drug smuggler living in
enter a trading range that will last for years. California, and a Florida boiler room opera-
During this time high stock valuations will tion. Several months after Mike’s articles
be worked off and the path will be set for a the SEC removed the stock from the Nasdaq.
real bull market, but market timing and stock It now trades on the pink sheets at a penny
selection will easily defeat a buy and hold a share. Mike had shorted it just under $18,
strategy while this happens. A market that weeks after a guest on CNBC recommended
is stuck in a trading range provides plenty of it as a buy. You do not want to miss the next
opportunities for those who know how to take newsletter. Go to
advantage of it. TimingWallStreet.Com today.
ADVERTISEMENT Traders World Magazine • Winter / Early Spring 2004 59
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Stock Trading Systems
Thanks for making the Four-Dimensional Course one of the best-selling price-adjusted market books in
history. And because this is the first advertising in 3 years, the success was achieved by word-of-mouth!
SOFTWARE
CycleTimer
CycleTimer Download a free trial
by Bradley F. Cowan Keep the free tutorial
All Ellipses Are Clones,
Unique Features Include: Same Length And Width
Price-Time Radius Vector (PTV) as discovered and taught
by Bradley F. Cowan in his Four-Dimensional Course