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Ch.1. Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management - Exp and Sol
Ch.1. Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management - Exp and Sol
STRATEGIC FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
PROF.RAHUL DANAIT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
1
EXPOSURE & RISK
MANAGEMENT
Video 1
Spot Rates
1. Spot Rates in the Currency Market reflect the Relationship between two
currencies in Today‟s terms.
3. Let‟s say a Bank today quotes 1£ = `100. We can then understand the
following equations:
1 £ = ` 100
50 £ = ` 5,000
` 6,000 = £ 60
Video 2
(b) 1 $ = NG 1.9
? $ = NG 50
with NG 50, we can buy $ 26.32
(c) 1$ = SK 6.4
40$ = SK 256
(d) 1$ = SF 1.50
? = SF 200
With SF 200, we can buy
$133.33
(e) 1$ = IL 1300
10 $ = IL 13,000
(f) 1$ = JY 140
?$ = JY 1000
$ 7.14
Video 3
Currency Risk
Video 4
Product and Price
Video 5
Thus,
Product = 1 Unit of FC
Price = Expressed in HC
DQ for Home
But simply, to Identify whether a quote is a DQ or not, just check the Price.
The quote is a DQ for that Country whose Currency is in the Price.
1 SGD = AUD 12
This is a DQ for Australia
Video 6
Q.2. Quote
Quote Product Price Reciprocal Quote
Status
1 £ = ` 72.76 £ ` DQ 1` = £ 0.0137
Video 7
Video 8
Bid, Ask and Spread
Bank quotes 2 Rates/ Prices for the same Product: One Price at which the Bank Buys
the Product and the Second Price at which the Bank Sells the Product.
This is called as a 2 way quote, which is explained below:
1 $ = ` 50 – 55
1 $ = `50 1 $ = `55
Video 9
Q.4. DQ DQ
Particulars 1 OMR 1£
= ` 130 – 132 = ¥ 141 – 145
(a) The country where the quote is India Japan
made
(b) Bid 130 141
Ask 132 145
Spread 2 4
(c) For the Ask Price :
(i) Currency being bought by bank Rupees Yen
(ii) Currency being bought you OMR Pound
(d) For the Bid Price :
(i) Currency being bought by bank OMR Pound
(ii) Currency being bought by you Rupee Yen
Video 10
To purchase £ 250,
We need to pay £ 250 73.25
= `18,312.50
Video 11
1$ = ` 50 – 55 DQ for India
1 1
1` $ –
50 55 WRONG
1 1
1` $ –
55 50 IDQ for India
`1 = $ 0.0182 – 0.02
Bid Rate of Ask Rate of
` in terms of ` in terms
$ of $
Video 12
Q.6. 1 £ = ` 70 – 72
1 1
1` £ –
72 70
1 `= £ 0.0139 – 0.0143
Strategic Financial Management 7 Forex
CA – FINAL
Video 13
Video 14
Video 15
3 AUD 1$ ` 60
Video 15
Video 16
Q.9. 1$ = 5.9 FF
1 £ = $ 1.50
1£ = FF ?
FF FF $
£ $ £
= 5.9 1.50
= 8.85
1 £ = 8.85 FF
Video 17
` ` $
Step 3 :
AUD $ AUD
1AUD 1$ 1AUD
= ` _______ = ` _______ = $ _______
BR of BR of $ BR of
AUD in in terms AUD in
terms of of terms of
` ` $
1 $ on sale of 5 AUD
You want to sell $, Bank will therefore buy $
Relevant Rate will be bid rate of $ in terms of `
1 $ = ` 60
On sale of 1$ you will receive ` 60
5 AUD 1$ ` 60
5 AUD = ` 60
1 AUD = ` 12 (BR of AUD in terms of `)
Video 18
` ` $ TAKE AR of PRODUCT
AUD in BOTH QUOTES IN RHS
Step 3 :
AUD $
1AUD = ` _______1$ = ` _______1AUD = $ _______
AR of AR of AR of
AUD in $ in AUD in
terms of terms terms of
` of ` $
` ` $ `
AR of Product
AUD $ AUD
1
63 21
3
1AUD = ` 21 (AR of AUD in terms of `)
For purchase of AUD 1,00,000,
We will have to pay 1,00,000 21 = ` 21,00,000
Logic : 1$ = ` 60 – 63,
1$ = AUD 3 – 5
1 AUD = ` ? [AR of AUD in terms of `]
We want to buy $. Bank will sell $.
The relevant rate will be AR of $ in terms of `
1 $ = ` 63
We have $
We want to buy AUD. Bank will sell AUD.
Relevant Rate will be AR of AUD in terms of $
1
1 AUD = $
3
3 AUD ? =$1
` 63 _______ 1$ _______ 3AUD
3 AUD = ` 63
1 AUD = ` 21 [AR of AUD in terms of `]
Quote 1 AUD = ` 12 – 21
V17 V18
Video 19
1 £ = $ 1.43 – 1.46
1 £ = € __? _ – __?___
€ € $
Bid Rate of Product
£ $ £
1
1.43
1.36
= 1.0515
1£ = € 1.0515 (BR of £ in terms of €)
€ € $
AR of Product
£ $ £
1
1.46
1.33
= 1.0977
1 £ = € 1.0977 (AR of £ in terms of €)
Quote 1 £ = € 1.0515 – 1.0977
Video 20
Q.11. We have `.
We want to buy SGD. Bank will sell SGD
Therefore, the relevant rate will be AR of SGD in terms of `.
1 SGD = ` ? (AR of SGD)
1 $ = ` 65 – 68
1 $ = SGD 12 – 14
` ` $
AR of Product
SGD $ SGD
1
68
12
= 5.6667
1 SGD = ` 5.6667
? ` 10,00,000
= 1,76,470 SGD
With ` 10,00,000 we can purchase SGD 1,76,470
Video 21
Video 22
Video 23
= 25,00,000 25.9806
1
45.97 1.7775
3.1380
= 26.0394 (AR of SGD)
Adding 0.125% to the above
1SGD = 26.0719 (Including Exchange Margin)
For purchase of 25,00,000 SGD we need to pay
25,00,000 26.0719
= ` 6,51,79,750 (Actual ` outflow)
Therefore Loss or gain due to delay :-
Jan 28 = ` 6,49,51,500
Feb 4 = ` 6,51,79,750
Loss = ` 2,28,250
Video 24
Video 25
Calculation of Loss in ` -
We want to buy €. Bank will therefore sell €.
The relevant rate will therefore be AR of € in terms of `.
1 $ = ` 31.4300 – 31.4500
1 $ = € 1.4400 – 1.4450
1 € = ` __?__ [AR of €]
` ` $
€ $ €
1
31.4500
1.4400
= 21.8403
1€ = ` 21.8403 [AR of €]
For Purchase of € 5000,
We will have to pay €5000 21.8403
= ` 1,09,201.5
Video 26
Video 27
Forward Contracts
A Forward Contract is an agreement entered into between two parties that decide
today to buy / sell a commodity in future at a Fixed Rate decided today itself. It is one
of the most important currency Risk Hedging Tools that we will study in this chapter.
Example : On 1/1 we approach the Bank to tell them that we would be wanting to
buy $10,000 from them after 3 months, i.e. on 1/4
1$ = ` 70 – 75 Spot
1$ = ` 73 – 79 3m forward Rate
Strategic Financial Management 21 Forex
CA – FINAL
Customer enter into a 3m forward contract with the bank today to buy
$10,000 after 3 months @ 3m FR quoted today – AR of $, in term of `
i.e. 1$ = ` 79
On due date, ` payable on purchase of $10,000 will be:-
10,000 79 = ` 79,00,000
(IRRESPECTIVE OF SPOT RATE THEN)
Video 28
Video 29
Video 30
Video 31
1
62.22
102.34
= 0.6080
1¥ = ` 0.6080 SPOT
On sale of ¥10,00,000;
We would have received = 10,00,000 0.6080
= ` 6,08,000
Step 2 : Calculation of Actual ` Inflow based on Expected spot
1$ = ` 65
1$ = ¥ 124
1¥ = ` __?__
` ` $
¥ $ ¥
1
65
124
= 0.5242
1¥ = ` 0.5242
On sale of ¥10,00,000; we will received
= 10,00,000 0.5242
= ` 5,24,200
Gain / Loss based on Exchange Rate Fluctuations
= ` 5,24,200 – ` 6,08,000
= (`83,800) Loss
Video 32
(ii) If the six-month forward rate is $ 1.80, the expected profits of the firm
can be maximized by retaining its pounds receivable.
Video 33
Video 34
? = $ 12.5156 mn
= ` 576.76 Lakhs
UK : Surplus £ 6mn
Invest in UK @ 3.7% p.a. (deposit rate)
30
3.7%
i.e. 360
= 0.308%
Maturity Value after = 6mn + 0.308%
30 days = £6.01848 mn
? = £ 6.01848 mn
= ` 401.232 Lakhs
(ii) Option b:
India Deficit ` 500 mn
US Surplus $ 12.5 mn
` 1= $ 0.0215 (spot Rate)
? = $ 12.5 mn
= ` 581.395 mn
UK Surplus £ 6mn
` 1= £ 0.0149
? = £ 6mn
= ` 402.685 mn
Net ` Inflow Today = 581.395 + 402.685 – 500
= ` 484.08 mn
Invest in India @ 6.2% p.a.
(deposit rate)
i.e. 6.2% 30
360
= 0.5167%
Maturity Value = 484.08 + 0.5167%
= ` 486.58 Lakhs
Option B is Preferable
Video 35
Video 36
6m FR 1 £ = ¥ 150.0000
On sale of ¥ 30,200.0392mn
30, 200.0392
Under FC, we will receive
150
= £ 201.3336 mn
Gain = £ 201.3336 mn
(–) £ 200.0000 mn
£ 1.3336 mn
Strategic Financial Management 32 Forex
CA – FINAL
$ Receivable in 6m [30/6]
6 6.4 mn
Interest 256.00 mn 5%
12
Principal Maturity 256 mn
Total $ Receivable 262.4 mn
6m FR = 1 £ = $ 1.30331
On sale of $ 262.4 mn under FC, we will receive
262.4
= £ 201.3335m
1.30331
Gain = £ 201.3335 mn
(–) £ 200.0000 mn
1.3335 mn
Video 37
Video 38
After 60d,
For Buying $ 20,00,000 we have to pay $ 20,00,000 57.10
= ` 11,42,00,000 [after 60 d]
Effective Interest for 30days
30
11, 42, 00, 000 10% = ` 9,38,630
365
Outflow after 90days
= 11,42,00,000 + 9,38,630
= 11,51,38,630
Penal Interest
30
= 20L 8%
365
= 13,150.68
90d FR 1$ = ` 57.50
Outflow after 90d
= $ 20,13,151 57.5
= ` 11,57,56,183
Conclusion – Go for 60 days offer, as it is cheaper.
Video 39
$ Payable = $ 1,30,000
Spot Rate 1$ = ` 48.35 – 48.36
Effective Interest
3
= 62,86,800 15%
12
= ` 2,35,755
3
Penalty Interest = $ 1,30,000 5%
12
= $ 1,625
3m FR 1$ = ` 48.81 – 48.83
Relevant Rate is AR of $ interest of ` [3m FR]
i.e. 1 $ = ` 48.83
Outflow after 3m
= $ 1,31,625 48.83
= ` 64,27,248.75
= ` 64,27,249
Video 40
Video 41
Video 42
Video 43
Q.33. (a) If supplier is paid within 10 days ` Outflow = [1,00,000 – 2%] 55*
= ` 53,90,000
*Spot Rate 1$ = ` 55
(b) If supplier is paid in 90 days.
` Outflow = 1,00,000 56*
= 56,00,000
90d FR 1$ = ` 56
Video 44
Example :
Spot 1$ = ` 70 $ is appreciating in the Forward
3m Fr 1$ = ` 77 Market, compared to `
77 -70 12
= × ×100
70 3
= 40%
S – F 12
% Appreciation / Depreciation in PRICE = 100
F m
70 -77 12
× ×100
77 3
= (36.36%)
Video 45
` is Appreciating
F – S 12
100
S 3
29.36 – 29.45 12
100
29.45 3
= (1.2224%) p.a.
29.45 – 29.36 12
100
29.36 3
= 1.2262% p.a.
Video 46
? = $1
= 4.55 FF
1$ = 4.55 FF
Video 47
Video 48
Case I : If FF 5%
Expected Spot after 90 days
1
Spot 1FF = $
5.7
1
Exp. Spot 1FF = $ + 5%
5.7
i.e. 1FF = $ 0.1842
1, 24, 000
FF Receivable =
0.1842
= FF 6,73,181
Loss = 7,06,800 – 6,73,181
= FF 33,619
Case II : If FF 5%
Expected spot:
1
1FF = $ – 5%
5.7
= FF 7,43,851
Gain = 7,43,851 - 7,06,800
= FF 37,051
Video 49
Q.38. B0 = $ 5,000
B1 = $ 5,250
I1= $ 350
B1 B0 I1
Return (%) = 100
B0
Let 1$ = ` 100 be spot
Spot after 1 year = ` 100 + 2%
1$ = ` 102
Strategic Financial Management 43 Forex
CA – FINAL
Video 50
Swap Points
Swap Points refer to the difference between Spot Rate and Forward Rate.
Example :
1$ = ` 70 - 72 Spot
1$ = ` 73 - 78 3m FR
Bid Ask Spread
Spot 70 72 2
3m FR 73 78 5
Swap points 3 6
Bid Swap Ask Swap
Swap Points = Forward Rate – Spot Rate
Rule 2 : If Swap point are in DESCENDING ORDER i.e. Ask swap < Bid swap;
THEN DEDUCT swap points from spot to find 3m FR
Exception : If word „ PREMIUM is used, then Add.
Rule 3: Always and always Add / Subtract to / from the LAST DIGITS
Example : 1$ = ` 70.3515 – 72.4173
3m spot = 25 – 35
FR = ` 70.3540 – 72.4208
Video 51
Video 52
1
49.56 Note1
1.7154
= 28.8912
1SGD = ` 28.8912 2m FR (Oct FR), Ask Rate of SGD in terms of `.
`
Note 1: For
$
1$ = ` 49.5100 + 0.05
1$ = ` 49.56 [2m FR]
$
For ,
SGD
Video 53
Bank A Bank B
Cross Rate Option III Quote 1 from Bank A and Quote 2 from
Bank B
CHF GHF USD
= × (AR of Product)
GBP USD GBP
= 1.4655 1.7650
= 2.5866
1GBP = CHF 2.5866
= 1.4655 1.7620
= 2.5822
= 1.4665 1.7640
= 2.5869
Video 54
= $ 1,02,500
3
Interest on OD = 60,55,000 14%
12
= 2,11,925
Total ` Outflow in 3m
= 60,55,000 + 2,11,925
= 62,66,925
We will choose option I as it is cheaper.
Video 55
Video 56
1
1$ = £ [AR of $ – 3m FR]
1.5430
1
£ Accrued = 5, 05, 000
1.5430
= £ 3,27,285
Gain = £ 3,28,947 - £ 3,27,285
= £ 1,662
Option 2: Investment in New York
Amount available for investment = $ 5,00,000
3
Interest Earned = $ 5,00,000 8%
12
= $ 10,000
Total $ Receivable = $ 5,10,000
Total $ Accrued = $ 5,05,000
Gain ($) (in 3m) = $ 5,000
Calculation of Gain (in £) :–
3m FR 1 £ = $ 1.5430 – 1.5475
Relevant Rate BR of in terms of £ [3m FR]
1
i.e. 1 $ = £
5, 475
On Sale of $ 5,000
We will Receive 5,000 1
= £ 3,231
5, 475
On Sale of $ 5,00,000,
5, 00, 000
We will Receive = € 5,93,261
0.8428
Invested 3% p.a. for 3m
i.e. 0.75%
Maturity Value = € 5,93,261 + 0.75%
= € 5,97,710
3m FR :
1£ = € 1.8260 - 1.8290
(-) 0.0145 0.0140
1£ = € 1.8115 - 1.8150
To convert € to £ using 3m FR,
Relevant Rate will be BR of €, in terms of £
1
i.e. 1€ = £
1.8150
On Sale of € 5,97,710
1
We will Receive 5,97,710 = £ 3,29,316
1.8150
(-) £ Accrued £ 3,27,285
Gain (in £) £ 2,031
Video 57
Video 58
Exchange Margins
Video 59
Video 60
Video 61
Base Example
1/1 1$ = ` 40 Spot
1$ = ` 50 3m FR
1/3 1$ = ` 51 Spot
1$ = ` 53 1m FR
1$ = ` 55 2m FR
1/4 1$ = ` 52 Spot
1$ = ` 56 1m FR
1$ = ` 51.5 15 days FR
15/4 1$ = 51.75 Spot
Strategic Financial Management 55 Forex
CA – FINAL
Video 62
Video 63
Note:
ICAI has rounded off cancellation rate
DO NOT APPLY EXCHANGE MARGIN CONTRACT RATE
Video 64
1$ = ` 64.3975
Net Ask Rate:
1$ = ` 64.3975 + 0.30%
1$ = ` 64.5907
Loss on cancellation = [(64.4570 – 64.5907) 2,00,000]
= 26,740
Video 67
Video 68
Loss on cancellation of FC
= ` (47.2500 – 47.5200) 1,00,000
= ` 27,000
Video 69
Loss on cancellation of FC
= ` (36.25 – 36.52) 1,00,000
= ` 27,000
Video 70
Q.51. Contract A : Customer enter into a 3m forward contract with Bank to sell
CHF @ ` 32.4000 having due date on 25/4
Cancellation Date 25/3
Original Position : SELL CHF @ ` 32.4000
To Cancel : BUY CHF @ 1m FR AR of CHF, in terms of `
1$ = ` 49.4302 – 49.4455
+ 00.4100 00.4200
1$ = ` ` 49.8402 – 49.8655
` ` $
= × (AR of Product) (1m FR)
CHF $ CHF
Note: 49.9154 = 49.8655+ 0.10%
1
49.9154
1.5150
= 32.9475
1 CHF = ` 32.94725 (AR of LHF, in terms of `)
Loss on cancellation = (32.40000 – 32.9475) 1,00,000
= ` 54,750
Video 73
Extension on Due Date
[Customer’s point of view]
[Contract A]
Contract A : On 1/1, customer enters into a 3m forward contract with Bank A to Buy
$ 3m forward @ ` 50 (Due Date 1/4)
Video 74
Video 75
Video 76
Evaluation of Option I :
Pay supplier Today [1/3/17] Due Date
Rupee outflow Today = $ 1,00,000 ` 45
= ` 45,00,000
1
Rupee outflow after 1m = 45L + 45L 18%
12
= ` 45,67,500
Evaluation of Option II :-
Pay supplier after 1m
$ payable after 1m = $ 1,00,000 + 0.5%
= $ 1,00,500
Step I : Cancellation of FC on DD :
Original Position : Buy $ ` 45
To Cancel : Sell $ ` 46
[DD Spot BR of $]
Gain on cancellation of FC on Due Date:
= ` (46 – 45) $ 1,00,000
= ` 1,00,000
MV after 1m
1
= 1,00,000 + 1,00,000 18%
12
= ` 1,01,500
Video 77
Video 78
Video 81
Video 82
Video 83
1$ = ` 59.3300
– + 0.20%
1$ ` 58.2133
Step 2: Book a new forward contract 2m forward rate on 5/9 for 5/11
New 2m FR = AR of $,
1$ = ` 58.7425
+ 0.20%
New contract Rate ` 58.8600
Video 86
Video 87
Q.59. Amount to be debited in the customer‟s A/c
= $ 1,00,000 65.6
= ` 65,50,000
Video 90
Video 91
Video 92
Video 96
Rules of Automatic Cancellation (RAC)
“LATE”
(I) (II)
2. Swap Loss :
ST # 1 : To Cancel Contract B
Original Position : SELL $ ` 50 (OCR)
1/4 To cancel : BUY $ @ `52 (1/4 spot)
ST #2 : Book on Earliest Available forward contract
SELL : $ @ ` 51.5 (15d FR 1/4)
Swap Loss (SL) ` 0.5 per $ Customer has to pay to Bank A on 15 /4
Video 97
Q.62 RAC
(1) Exchange Rate Difference
Opening Position : BUY $ @ ` 66.8400
To Cancel : SELL $ @ ` 65.8940
[20/9 spot BR of $]
1$ = ` 65.9600
–
(0.1%)
New contract Rate ` 65.8940
Loss on cancellation = [65.8940 – 66.8400] 50,000
= ` 47,300
(2) Swap Loss :
ST # 1 : 10/9 cancel original contract B
Original Position : BUY $ @ ` 66.6800
To Cancel : SELL $ @ `66.1500
[10/9 SPOT BR OF $]
ST #2 : Book on New FC (Contract B) with Bank B to BUY $ at Earliest FR
available
BUY : $ @ `66.3200
Swap Loss (SL) = (66.1500 – 66.3200)50000
= ` 8,500
(3) Calculation of Interest on outflow :
= (66.1500 – 66.6800) 50,000
10
= 26,500 12% = ` 87
365
RAC
(1) Exchange Difference ` 47,300
(2) Swap Loss ` 8500
(3) Interest ` 87
` 55,887
(i) To cancel the contract :
RAC = ` 55,887
Video 98
Q.63.
(i) Cancellation Rate
The contract a shall be cancelled on 20/6 spot Rate.
Opening Position : BUY $ @ ` 64.4000
To cancel : SELL $ @ ` 63.6163
[Bid Rate of $ - Spot 20/6]
Bid Rate = 63.6800
– Ex. Margin 0.10%
Net Bid Rate 63.6163
Cancellation Rate = ` 63.6163 ` 63.6175
Video 100
Money Market Hedging (MMH) for Exporter
After 3 Month
Step 6: Customer pay $ 1,00,000 which is used to pay off $ Loan, which must
have grown to $ 1,00,000 FC Receivable is set off against FC Payable.
Hedging is complete as we know today itself how much ` we will be
receiving in 3m.
Video 101
We are an Indian Importer and have imported goods worth $1,00,000 from an USA
supplier money payable in 3 m time.
Spot Rate 1$ = ` 70
Deposit Amount
$1, 00, 000
=
1.01
= $ 99,010
Video 101
Video 102
Q.64. TODAY
Step 1: IDENTIFY : We have a Foreign currency Receivable of £5,00,000 in
3m.
3
5% 1.25% for 3m
12
Borrowing Amount
5, 00, 000
=
1.0125
= £ 4,93,827
Video 103
After 3m
Step 6: On due date, 3.5L$ Receivable from customer will be used to knock off
$ Borrowing which will grow to 3.5L $ then. Hedging is complete.
Video 104
(II) MMH
Step 1: Identify We have a FC payable of $ 50.5L in 3m.
Step 2: To Hedge, we Create a FC Receivable of $ 50.5L in 3m
Step 3 : Invest PV of 50.5L $ in USA today @ Deposit Rate of $[USA]
i.e. 4% p.a.
3
4% = 1%
12
Investment Amount today
50,50,000
=
1.01
= $ 50,00,000
After 3m
Step 6: FC Receivable will be set off against FC payable on Due Date.
Hedging complete. ` Outflow fixed = ` 20,98,55,625
Video 105
1£ = FF?
FF FF $
= ×
£ $ £
= 5.7485 1.4920
= 8.5768
1£ = FF 8.5768
Sale Value (in FF) = 3,50,000 8.5768
= FF 30,01,880 [Receivable in 3m]
3m Forward Cover to convert FF to £
3m FR 1$ = FF 5.7833
1£ = $ 1.4873
1£ = FF?
FF FF $
= ×
£ $ £
= 5.7833 1.4873
= 8.6015 1£ = FF 8.6015
30, 01,880
On Sale of FF 30,01,880, we will Receive =
8.6015
= £ 3,48,995
Step 1: Identify:
We have FC Receivable of $ 2,25,000 in 3m (Asset)
(iii) Yes, uganda customer‟s offer for payment in US$ should be accepted as
USD is a strong and reliable currency. There is no forward cover
available on Uganda shillings.
Video 106
Video 107
Q.69. £ Exposure :
£ Receivable :£ 1,38,000
In 3m
£ Payable : £ 4,80,000
3
i.e. 10% p.a.
12
= 2.5% for 3 months.
Investment Amount Today :
£ 3, 42, 000
= £ 3,33,659
1.025
€ Receipt :
Option 1: Forward cover
4m FR 1€ = $ 1.9510 – 1.9540
We want to sell €. Relevant Rate will be Bid Rate of € in terms of
$ i.e. 1.9510.
On Sale of € 5,90,000; we will receive
€5,90,000 1.9510
= $ 11,51,090
Step 6: On Due Date, € 5,90,000 FC be Receivable from customer will get set
off against €.
Borrowing which will grow to € 5,90,000 then. Thus, Hedging is
complete.
We will choose Option 1: Forward Contract as it result in higher $
inflow.
Video 108
Comparing all 4 options, the cheapest option available with the customer
is option (c) i.e penalty.
Video 109
Introduction
$ 1L (3m)
A B
$ 30K (3m)
Netting:
$ 70K (Net)
A B
Video 110
Video 111
Q.72. Step 1: Covering all amounts to common currency $
Amount Spot Rate Amount
EL 240 1$ = € 0.90 $ 267
¥ 12,000 1$ = ¥ 120 $ 100
EL 120 1$ = € 0.90 $ 133
£ 75 1$ = £ 0.70 $ 107
¥ 12,000 1$ = ¥ 120 $ 100
Step 2:Netting
UK Euroland Japan
($267) $267
($100) $100
$133 ($133)
$107 ($107)
($100) $100
($260) $193 $67
Thus, UK has to pay $ 193 to Euroland and $ 67 to Japan.
Strategic Financial Management 89 Forex
CA – FINAL
Video 112
For Eg –
1$ = ` 60
1£ = $2
1£ = ` 100
Path 2:
` £ $ `
6000 ……… $60 ……… £120 ……….` 7200
Path 2 will give us Profit, as we end up with more Rupees, than what we
invested, within a day; sure shot profit – Arbitrage!
Video 113
Q.73. ` £ $ `
(1) Converting ` to £
1£ = ` 81.2 / 81.90
Relevant Rate = 81.90
` 1,00,00,000
81.90
= £1,22,100
(2) Converting £ to $
1£ = $ 2.14/2.156
We want to sell £
Bank will buy £ @ Bid Rate
= £ 1,22,100 2.14
= $ 2,61,294
Video 114
Available $ = $ 1,00,00,000
Ex. Margin = 0.125%
$ £ ` $
(1) Converting $ to £
1£ = $ 1.70 – 1.72
Relevant Rate = 1.72
+ Ex. Margin = 0.125%
1.72215
$1,00,00,000 =
£ 58,06,695
1.72215
(2) Converting £ to `
1£ = `102.5 – 103.00
Relevant Rate = 102.5
– Ex. Margin = (0.125%)
102.3719
£ 58,06,695 102.3719
= ` 59,44,42,399 ` 59,44,42,400
(3) Converting ` to $
1$ = `59.25 - 59.35
Relevant Rate = 59.35
+ Ex. Margin = 0.125%
= $ 59.4242
` 59, 44, 42, 400
59.4242
= $ 1,00,03,372
Gain = 1,00,03,372 – 1,00,00,000
= $ 3,372
Video 115
Q.75. The company can proceed in the following ways to realise arbitrage gain:
(a) Buy Rupees from US$ at Mumbai:
` 64.10 US$ 2,00,00,000
= ` 128,20,00,000
(b) Convert Rupees from US$ at London:
` 128,20,00,000/99.10
= GBP 1,29,36,427.85
(c) Convert GBP into US$ at New York
= GBP 1,29,36,427.85 1.5530
= US$ 2,00,90,272.45
There is a Net Gain of = US$ 2,00,90,272.45 - US$ 2,00,00,000
= US$ 90,272.45
Video 116
Interest Rate Parity Theorem
Eg. 1$ = ` 50
Home Currency = India
1` = $ 0.02
Home Currency = USA
Solving the example,
1 0.1 F
1 0.06 50
1.1 50
F
1.06
F = ` 51.89
Video 117
Video 118
Video 119
1yr FR
1 rh F
1 rf S0
1.08 F
1.06 1.50
F = 1.5283
1£ = $ 1.5283
2yr FR
1 rh F
1 rf S1
1.08 F
1.06 1.5283
F = 1.5571
1£ = $ 1.5571
3yr FR
1.08 F
1.06 1.5571
F = 1.5865
1£ = $ 1.5865
Another way of calculating year 2 & year 3 :-
2 yr FR:
1.08
2
F
1.06
2
1.5
1.1664 F
1.1236 1.5
1£ = $1.5571
3yr FR :
1.08
3
F
1.06
3
1.5
1.2597 F
1.1910 1.5
1£ = $ 1.5865
Video 120
Video 121
1 rh F
1 rf S0
1 rh 7.2721
1.06125 7.05
rh = 0.09468
i.e. 9.47%
Video 122
For IRPT,
Singapore Home
UK Foreign
rh = 15%
rf = 12%
If £ was to
(a) Gain by 4%
Expected Spot after 6m :
1£ = SGD 2.5 + 4%
1£ = SGD 2.6
(b) Lose by 2%
Expected Spot after 6m :
1£ = SGD 2.5 – 2%
1£ = SGD 2.45
Video 123
Video 124
Covered Interest Arbitrage
(V116 Example Taken)
1$ = ` 50 Spot
India Int. Rate (rh) = 10%
USA Int. Rate (rf) = 6%
Theoretical 1yr FR 1$ = ` 51.89
Actual 1yr FR 1$ = ` 54
Strategic Financial Management 101 Forex
CA – FINAL
1$ = ` 50 Spot
1$ = ` 54 1yr FR (Actual)
Strategic Financial Management 102 Forex
CA – FINAL
rf = 6%
We have to find out the Theoretical
1 rh F
,where
1 rf S
F = Actual FR
S = Actual Spot Rate
rf = Foreign Interest rate
1 rh 54
1 0.06 50
1 + rh = 1.1448
rh = 14.48%
Since 14.48% > 10%
Thus borrowing in India is cheaper.
Video 125
On Due Date
Step 5: Realize £1922 Investment Maturity Proceeds
Step 6: Convert £1,922 to ` (under FC)
£ 1922 52.8
=` 1,01,482
Step 7: Repay ` Loan
= 1,00,000 + 2%
= ` 1,02,000
Loss = 1,02,000 – 1,01,482
= ` 518
There is NO SCOPE for Covered Interest Arbitrage if we Borrow ` for
3m and invest in foreign.
On Due Date
Step 5: Realize £1974 Investment Maturity Proceeds
Step 6: Convert £1898 to ` (Under FC)
= £ 1974 53.10
= ` 1,04,819
Strategic Financial Management 104 Forex
CA – FINAL
Video 126
1 rh F
1 rf S0
1 rh 0.670
1.0175 0.665
1 + rh = 1.02515
rh = 2.515% for 3m
For 12m,
12
rh = 2.515
3
= 10.06%
Actual rh (9%) is lower than Theoretical rh (10.06%)
Thus, borrowing from Home (Canada) is cheaper.
Actual rh < Theoretical rh,
Our Strategy for Arbitrage is Borrow at Home (CD) and Invest in foreign (DM)
Video 127
Video 128
Video 129
$ 1060 = ` 77,000
`77000
1$ =
1060
1$ = ` 72.64
(Theoretical 1yr FR – PPPT)
Formula
1 rh F
where,
1 rf S0
Video 130
Video 131
Video 132
Nostro, Vostro, Loro
If Bank of America has an SBI A/c, SBI will call that A/c NOSTRO A/c (My A/c
with You) and BOA will call that SAME A/c as VOSTRO A/c.
(Your A/c with Us)
Now, if a small Indian Bank uses SBI‟s A/c with Bank of America, it will be called
as LORO A/c.
Video 133
Exchange position is a statement where we will record the buy and sell of Foreign
Currency the moment we AGREE to buy/sell FC.
Cash position is that position where we record the debit and credit when it actually
happens.
(For more theory content on this concept, read Theory Section below)
Video 134
Cash Position
Particulars Debit (SF) Credit (SF)
Opening Balance 1,00,000
Remittance by TT 75,000
25,000
Buy TT 5,000
Closing balance 30,000
Video 15
Video 135
Cash Position
Particulars Debit (SF) Credit (SF)
Opening Balance 65,000
Remittance by TT 37,500
1,02,500 -
Buy TT 1,17,500
Closing balance 15,000
Video 136
Calculation of Actual P/L (`) on Due Date, based on Actual Spot Rates on
Due Date
= 2,400 [`25,000 – 800 SGD 27.75 – 1,000 – 1,500]
= ` 7,20,000
485.44 483.09
= 100
485.44
= 0.48%
% in Demand = 0.48 1.5
= 0.72%
Revised Demand
= 2,400 u + 0.72%
= 2,417u
Alternatively,
Actual Profit / Loss on Due Date based on Spot Rate on Due Date:
= 2,417u [` 25,000 – (800SGD 27.75) – 1,500] – 24,00,000
= ` 7,42,100
Loss due to operational Exposure = ` 11,29,900
Video 137
(ii) The exposure of Japanese yen position is being offset by a better forward
rate
Video 138
On due Date
Step 5 : Realize $ Maturity Proceeds $ 1,56,467
Step 6: Convert to $ to £ at 2 year FR
= 1,56,467 0.85
= £ 1,32,997
Step 7: Repay £ Loan £ 1,10,500
Arbitrage Gain = £ 22,497
Video 139
(ii) $ Borrowing
3
3m Interest Rate = 6% = 1.5%
12
6
6m Interest Rate = 5.5% = 2.75%
12
Payoff(6m) = Payoff (3m)
(1.0275) = (1.015) (1 + r)
1 + r = 1.01232
r = 0.01232
1.232% for 3m
12
Annual = 1.232
3
= 4.928%
Video 140
Q.94. Strategy 1: This strategy is covered by High Risk: Low Reward category
and worst as leaves all exposures unhedged. Although this strategy does not
involve any time and effort, it carries high risk.
Video 141
(B) Assuming that since the forward contract for receivable was already
booked it shall be cancelled if we lag the receivables. Accordingly any
profit/ loss on cancellation of contract shall also be calculated and shall
be adjusted as follows:
Amount Payable ($) $7,00,000
Amount receivable after 3 months $ 4,50,000
Net Amount payable $2,50,000
Applicable Rate ` 48.45
Amount payable in (`) (A) ` 1,21,12,500
Profit on cancellation of Forward cost ` 2,70,000
(48.90 – 48.30) × 4,50,000 (B)
Thus net amount payable in (`) (A) + (B) ` 1,18,42,500
Since net payable amount is least in case of first option, hence the
company should cover payable and receivables in forward market.
Note: In the question it has not been clearly mentioned that whether quotes
given for 2 and 3 months (in points terms) are premium points or
direct quotes. Although above solution is based on the assumption
that these are direct quotes, but students can also consider them as
premium points and solve the question accordingly.
Video 142
Premium on US$
1.05 0.96%
-1
1.04
Net Cost 5.31%
Premium on US$
1.05 1.94%
1
1.03
Thus, loan from Swiss Bank is the best option as the Total Outflow
including Interest is Less i.e. €105200
Video 143
Video 144
Q.98. (a) No, while Citi Bank‟s quote is a Direct Quote for JPY (i.e. for Japan) the
Hong Kong Bank quote is a Direct Quote for USD (i.e. for USA).
(b) Since Citi Bank quote imply USD/ JPY 0.0094 - 0.0095 and both rates
exceed those offered by Hong Kong Bank, there is an arbitrage
opportunity.
Alternatively, it can also be said that Hong Kong Bank quote imply JPY/
USD 107.53 – 111.11 and both rates exceed quote by Citi Bank, there is
an arbitrage opportunity.
(c) Let us how arbitrage profit can be made.
(i) Covert US$ 1,000 into JPY by buying from Hong JPY
Kong Bank 1,07,530
Sell these JPY to Citi Bank at JPY/ USD 106.50
and convert in US$ US$ 1009.67
Thus, arbitrage gain (US$ 1009.67 - US$ 1000.00) US$ 9.67
(ii) Covert JPY 1,00,000 into USD by buying from Citi
Bank at JPY/ USD 106.50 US$ 938.97
Sell these US$ to Hong Kong Bank at JPY/ USD JPY
107.53 and convert in US$ 100967.44
Thus, arbitrage gain (JPY 1,00,967.44 - JPY JPY 967.44
1,00,000)
Video 145
Q.99. (a) (i) calculate the cross rate for pounds in Yen terms
1 £ = ? ¥
US$1 = ¥ 107.31
£1 = US$ 1.26
¥ $ ¥
$ £ £
¥
= 107.31 1.26
£
£1 = ¥ 135.21
(iii) Calculate the cross rate for Australian Dollar in Yen terms
A$1 = ¥?
US$1 = ¥ 107.31
A$ 1 = US$ 0.70
¥ $ ¥
$ A$ A$
¥
= 107.31 0.70
A$
A$ 1 = ¥ 75.12
(iii) Calculate the cross rate for Pounds in Australian Dollar terms
£ 1 = A$ ?
A$1 = US$ 0.70
US $ 1 = A$ 1.4286
£1 = US$1.26
A$ $ A$
$ £ £
A$
= 1.4286 1.26 = 1.80
$
£1 = A$ 1.80
(b) (i) If you believe the spot exchange rate will be $ 1.32/£ in three
months, you should buy £ 1,000,000 forward for $1.30/£ and sell at
$ 1.32/£ 3 months hence.
Your expected profit will be:
£1,000,000 ($1.32 - $1.30)
= $20,000
(ii) If the spot exchange rate turns out to be $1.26/£ in three months,
your loss from the long position in Forward Market will be: -
£ 1,000,000 ($ 1.26 - $1.30)
= $ 40,000
Strategic Financial Management 123 Forex