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Development of solar forecasting in India: The introduction of REMCs

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 Development of solar forecasting in India: The
introduction of REMCs
Ms. Mandeep Kaur, Dr. Indradip Mitra, Mr. Markus Wypior, Mr. Sunil Kumar Sharma, Mr. Aravindakshan Ramanan
Indo-German Energy Programme – Green Energy corridors
GIZ Gmbh
New Delhi, India

Abstract
In India solar forecasting has been recently
operationalised. Two kinds of forecasting needs to be Breakup of RES as on 31.08.16
done, one for the individual solar & wind plants for 10%
scheduling and accounting purpose and the other for
18% Small Hydro
entire grid control area for safe & secure grid operations.
11%
Week ahead, Day ahead and intraday forecasting was Wind
made mandatory as a consequence along with several sets
61% Biopower
of rules and mechanisms introduced by the Central as
well as State level authorities. Day ahead forecasting with Solar
15 minute resolution, 16 times intra-day revision is
required by solar and wind generators. One new
development is the concept of Renewable Energy
Management Centres which would be co-located with Figure 2. Breakup of installed capacities of Renewable Energy Sources [1]
existing load dispatch centres and take care about
forecasting, scheduling along with a few other activities.
With establishment of REMC it is assumed that Installed Solar Capacity in India (MW)
Renewables will be better integrated by system operators
Installed Solar Capacity (MW)

9000 8083
into existing grids. 8000
7000
Keywords-Forecasting, Solar Renewable Energy Mangement 6000
5000 4098
Centre 4000
3000
2000
I. INTRODUCTION : NEED FOR SOLAR FORECASTING 1000 15
0
Installed Capacity Breakup as on 31.08.16
Month

14% Figure 3. Installed Solar Photovoltaic capacities [2]

14%
Thermal
2% 70%
Nuclear Government of India has announced ambitious targets of
Hydro adding 175 GW of renewable energy into its energy mix by
RES
2022 [3]. Out of this 175 GW, 100 GW of capacity additions
are expected form Solar, 60 GW from wind, 10 GW from
biomass and 5 GW from small hydro power. Such huge
Figure 1. Installed Capacity Breakup as on 31.08.2016 [1] amount of penetration from Renewable energy would come
with inherent properties of variability and uncertainty.
As on August 2016, all India installed generation capacity is Uncertainty can be dealt with forecasting. Grid operators of
305.56 GW [1], RES share is 14% of total installed capacity renewable rich states have been facing problems in operating
as shown in Fig1. Contributions of different renewable grid. There were frequent complaints of wind developers in
energy sources is shown in Fig 2. [1]. Tamil Nadu about curtailments. Year 2013, two to three
billion units generated from wind were curtailed due to
In recent years, there has been a steep increase in the solar absence of forecasting. Wind forecasting was started in India
power installations in India as shown in Fig 3. [2] in Tamil Nadu by National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE)
on advice from Ministry of New and Renewable Energy,
(MNRE) and funding from Indian Wind Power Association,
(IWPA) in year 2015, this has improved the evacuation from
wind plants as shown in Fig 4.[4]
Wind Evacuation in Million units
10000 8797
8542
7158
8000 6815
5338
6000
M.U
4000
2000
0 dispatch center’s (RLDC) are responsible for integrated
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Figure 4. Wind Evacuation in Million Units
With increasing penetration form solar Energy, shown in Fig
3, absence of solar forecasting is hindering smooth grid
operations. Solar energy is being curtailed in Tamil Nadu,
sometimes in the range of 50-100% during peak generation
periods [5]. In addition to this absence of accurate load
forecasting at Discom, State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC),
Regional Load Dispatch Centre (RLDC) and National Load
Dispatch Centre (NLDC) levels, lack of primary &
secondary reserves also necessitate accurate forecasting of
these variable sources. [6]
Forecasting & Scheduling of Renewable resources have
been mandated for the plants connected at interstate
transmission lines. The details can be found in section II A.
Government of India is gradually preparing to create
supporting environment to increase electricity consumption
from Renewable sources of Energy. In light of this GOI had
already formed a technical committee on 20 April 2015 for
“Large Scale Integration of Renewable Energy, need for
balancing, Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM) and
associated issues”. The members of this technical committee
are MNRE, Ministry of Power (MoP), Central Electricity
Authority (CEA), Central Electricity Regulatory
Commission (CERC), Renewable Energy rich states, Power
System Operation Corporation (POSOCO), Power Grid
Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) [6]. The committee
have been working on implementing spinning reserves,
Ancillary services, Load & Generation forecasting,
introducing extended market sessions etc. for facilitating
large scale grid integration [6]. Details on evolution of solar
forecasting have been discussed in details in section II.A.
A. STRUCTURE OF INDIAN ELECTRICITY GRID
Electricity grid in India is synchronously operating at 50 Hz
since December 2013 [7].
For secure grid operations and optimum scheduling and
dispatch, India has Load dispatch centres present at national,
regional and states level. National load dispatch center
(NLDC) is apex body to ensure integrated operation of the
national power system [8]. NLDC performs scheduling and
dispatch of power in inter regional links. NLDC exercises
supervision over RLDC’s. It also serves as the entity
responsible for coordination of transnational exchange of
power.
India has five Regional Load Dispatch Centres namely
Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre (NRLDC),
Western Regional Load Dispatch Centre (WRLDC), Eastern
regional Load Dispatch Centre (ERLDC), Southern
Regional Load dispatch Centre (SRLDC) and North Eastern
Regional Load Dispatch Centre (NERLDC). Regional load
power system operation within the region they also exercises
control over the inter-state transmission systems. Different
RLDC’s also coordinate within themselves for maintaining
system security within their region.
The State Load Dispatch Centre is the apex body to ensure
integrated operation of the power system in a State. It is
responsible for optimum scheduling and dispatch within the
state [8].
Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) is
responsible for drafting regulations applicable for interstate
transmission networks, Generators which includes tariff
determination, grid codes, open access regulations,
electricity market regulations, fixing trading margins,
interstate transmission tariff. In line with the federal
structure, the respective State electricity regulatory
commission (SERC) are responsible for drafting regulations
which are applicable to power plants connected to the intra-
state network.
II. DISCUSSIONS
A. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR RE
FORECASTING
The requirement of forecasting variable solar and wind
generators was first highlighted in Indian Electricity Grid
Code (IEGC), 2010 [8]. Before this regulation scheduling of
solar & wind generators was not done by Generators. The
wind generators of capacity 10 MW and above and solar
generators with capacity of 5 MW & above connected at
33kV & above were mandated to forecast their generations.
Wind and solar generators were exempted to pay penalties
within ± 30 % of the schedule generation, after which wind
generators have to pay penalties according to unscheduled
interchange mechanism in form renewable regulatory charge
operated through (Renewable Regulatory Fund) RRF. The
Generators were allowed to revise their schedule 8 times a
day. IEGC instructed NLDC to prepare mechanism for
implementation of RRF. NLDC came out with procedure
which was to be implemented 1.1.2012 [9]. It was never
operationalised. NLDC again tried to revise the procedure in,
this revised procedure was to be made operational from
15.07.13 [10]. Due to several executional issues it was never
made operational. With increasing penetration of renewables On similar lines, states like Karnataka [15], Madhya Pradesh
into grid, the need of enforcing regulations was felt by [16], Tamil Nadu [17], Rajasthan [18], Jharkhand [19] and
central regulatory body of India CERC. On 31.03.2015, Andhra Pradesh [20] issued draft regulations on forecasting
CERC released draft framework on “Forecasting, and scheduling of Renewable Energy. Karnataka on
Scheduling & Imbalance Handling for renewable energy 31.05.16 notified the regulations [21]. These draft
generating stations based on wind and solar at Interstate regulations mandates Generators and grid operators to do
level” [11]. CERC invited comments from various forecast. Forecast by the Generator is with the purpose of
stakeholders and after receiving inputs from various scheduling, whereas forecast by the grid operator is for the
stakeholders, CERC had issued third amendment in IEGC on purpose of maintaining grid security. Schedules can be
07.08.2016 [12] and second amendment in deviation revised 16 times in day. Evolution of forecasting regulation
settlement mechanism & related matters [13]. The above is depicted in Fig 5.
stated regulations were meant to be applicable for Generators
connected at interstate level. Odisha came out with draft Deviation Settlement
Mechanism and Related Matters) Regulations, 2015 [22] and
For solar and wind generators connected at intra state level, Chhattisgarh came out with draft Intra-state Availability
Forum of regulators formed model regulation on Based Tariff and Deviation Settlement) Regulations, 2016
“Forecasting, Scheduling and Deviation Settlement of Wind [23]. These regulations mandates solar & wind Generators of
and Solar Generating Stations at the State level” in 5 MW and above to provide accurate schedules. Comparison
November 2015 [14]. of different forecasting regulations have been shown in
Table 1.
IEGC 2010 RRF 2011 RRF 2013
Inception of  Applicable to wind/solar Applicable to
concept of generators connection point wind/solar B. Current Infrastructure to aid solar power forecasting
forecasting at 33kV or above generators
 Tolerance band of ±30% for connected to 1) Solar Radiation Resource Assessment
wind generators pooling station
MNRE in 2010 had authorized NIWE, to establish for setting
up the world’s largest network of solar radiation resource
FOR 2015 CERC IEGC 3rd, DSM Draft National RE assessment (SRRA) stations all over the country to overcome
2nd 2015 Act – 2015
 Tolerance band of the deficiencies in the availability of investor grade ground
10% or 15% as  Tolerance band for  POSOCO as
Nodal Entity
measured solar radiation data. Technical assistance for
applicable deviation set at +/-15%.
 Deviation charges  Error definition changed for attaining and sustaining high quality standards, quality
linked to PPA rate forecasting all management, checks, generation of reports and developing
RE generators
connected to
Solar Atlas of India is provided by GIZ.
grid
 All generators SRRA stations were set up in 121 locations across India. A
have to share
data
typical SRRA station consists of secondary standard
pyrheliometers for measuring DNI, two first class
pyranometers for measuring GHI and DHI. Other
KERC 2015 (draft) MPERC 2015 TNERC 2016 atmospheric parameters like ambient temperature, relative
 Error  In line with Forum  Tolerance humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed & direction, rain
Definition of Regulators Band
changed definition narrowed fall etc. are also measured. The solar sensors are traceable to
𝑬𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 % down to 5% the World Radiometric Reference (WRR) and the
𝐀𝐆 − 𝐒𝐆 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 for solar meteorological sensors are traceable to World
=
𝐒𝐆 Generators
Meteorological Organization (WMO) [24].Different
parameters are measured every second and averaged over
one minute interval. All these values are stored in the Central
KERC (notified JSERC 2016 RERC 2016 Receiving Stations (CRS) established at NIWE. Four of the
regulation) In line with Forum of  In line with measuring stations are certified by Baseline Surface
In line with Forum of Regulators definition
Regulators definition
Forum of Radiation Network (BSRN).
Regulators
definition
Solar forecasting requires GHI as an output by running
Numerical Weather prediction (NWP) model. The measured
GHI from these SRRA station could be used in fine tuning
APERC 2016 the predicted output as part of post processing.
 In line with
Forum of
Regulators 2) Weather Service providers
definition
Indian meteorological Department (IMD) and National
Figure 5. Evolution of forecasting regulation in India Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
are the government owned weather service providers in
India. NWP output required for solar power forecasting are
generated by some of the models run by NCMRWF.
 Table 1:Comparison of various regulations on forecasting [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21].

PARAMETERS CERC Forum of Karnataka Madhya Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Jharkhand Andhra
/ Dated Regulators Electricity Pradesh Electricity Electricity Electricity Pradesh
REGULATION 7.8.2015 Dated Regulatory Electricity Regulatory Regulatory Regulatory Electricity
S DSM 2nd x.x.2015 Commission Regulatory Commission Commission Commission Regulatory
amendment (KERC) Commission (TNERC) (RERC) Dated Commission
and IEGC 3rd Dated (MPERC) Dated Dated x.x.2015 Dated
amendment 31.05.2016 Dated x.x.2016 x.02.2016 06.09.2016
08.12.2015
Applicability All wind/ All wind/ solar All wind and All wind and All wind and All wind and All wind/ solar All wind/ solar
solar generators solar solar solar solar generators generators
generators connected to generators generators generators generators connected to connected to
which are the state grid above connected to connected to above the state grid the state grid
regional including threshold the state grid the state grid, threshold including including
entities. those collective including including collective those those
connected via capacity at the those those capacity at the connected via connected via
pooling pooling connected via connected via pooling pooling pooling
stations, and station selling pooling pooling station selling stations, and stations, and
selling power power within stations, and stations, and power within selling power selling power
within or or outside the selling power selling power or outside the within or within or
outside the state. within or within the state outside the outside the
state. outside the state. state. state.
state
Threshold 50 MW and NA ≥ 10 MW for NA NA 5 MW and NA NA
Collective above Wind Gen above
Capacity ≥ 5 MW for
Solar Gen
Data Turbine Technical Technical Technical Technical Technical Technical Technical
Requirement availability, specifications, specifications, specifications, specifications, specifications, specifications, specifications,
from RE power output power system power system power system power system power system power system power system
Generators and real-time output & output & output & output & output & output & output &
weather parameters parameters parameters parameters parameters parameters parameters
measurement and weather and weather and weather and weather and weather and weather and weather
s data to the data to the data to the data to the data to the data to the data to the
(wind speed, concerned concerned concerned concerned concerned concerned concerned
temperature, SLDC in real SLDC in real SLDC in real SLDC in real SLDC in real SLDC in real SLDC in real
pressure etc.) time. time. time. time. time. in real time. time..
time.
Who RLDC as well Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind Solar/ Wind
Should do as wind/ solar Generator or Generators or Generator or Generator or Generator or Generator or Generator or
forecast generator. QCA on their QCA/ QCA on their QCA on their QCA on their QCA on their QCA on their
behalf should Aggregator on behalf should behalf should behalf should behalf should behalf should
do forecasting their behalf do forecasting do forecasting do forecasting do forecasting do forecasting
for the should do for the for the for the for the for the
purpose of forecast for purpose of purpose of purpose of purpose of purpose of
scheduling. the purpose of scheduling. scheduling. scheduling. scheduling. scheduling.
SLDC should scheduling. Or SLDC should SLDC should SLDC should SLDC should SLDC should
also do services from also do also do also do also do also do
forecasting for REMC could forecasting for forecasting for forecasting for forecasting for forecasting for
ensuring be taken. ensuring ensuring ensuring ensuring ensuring
secure grid SLDC should secure grid secure grid secure grid secure grid secure grid
operations. also do operations. operations. operations. operations. operations.
forecasting for
ensuring
secure grid
operations.

Frequency of Day ahead Day ahead and A week ahead, Day ahead and Day ahead and Day ahead and Day ahead and Week ahead,
schedules week ahead day ahead and week ahead week ahead week ahead week ahead day ahead and
schedule intraday schedule schedule schedule schedule intra-day
schedule.
Revisions Max 16 Max 16 Max 16 Max 16 Max 16 Max 16 Max 16 Max 16
Allowed revisions are revisions are revisions are revisions are revisions are revisions are revisions are revisions are
effective from effective from effective from effective from effective from effective from effective from effective from
4th time block 4th time block 4th time block 4th time block 4th time block 4th time block 4th time block 4th time block
starting from starting from starting from starting from starting from starting from starting from starting from
00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of 00:00 hours of
a particular a particular a particular a particular a particular a particular a particular a particular
day. day. day. day. day. day. day. day.
Normalised 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 %
AG − SG AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100 AG − SG ∗ 100
Error Definition = 𝑥100 = = = = = = =
AvC 1 AvC AvC AvC AvC AvC AvC AvC

Tolerance band ± 15% Generators ± 15 % Generators 10% for wind ± 15 % Generators Generators
applicable for selling power selling power and 5% for selling power selling power
both wind/ within state within state solar within state within state
solar can deviate can deviate generators can deviate can deviate
generators upto ±15 % upto ±15 % upto ±15 % upto ±15 %
(prior) and (prior) and (prior) and (connected
±10 % (after) ±10 % (after) ±10 % (after) prior to
this regulation this regulation this regulation regulations)
and ±10 %
(connected
after this
regulation)

1
AvC = Available Capacity for wind or solar generators means the cumulative capacity rating of the wind turbines or solar
inverters that are capable of generating power in a given time-block;
AG = Actual Generation
SG = Scheduled Generation
Time–block; means a time block of 15 minutes, for which specified electrical parameters and quantities are recorded by
special energy meter, with first time block starting at 00.00 hrs.

C. Proposed infrastructure for solar forecasting
As discussed in section I India is having huge targets of
installing Renewable Energy into its grid. Understanding the
integration challenges Power Grid Corporation of India
(PGCIL) was entrusted by MNRE (Ministry of New and
renewable Energy) and Forum of Regulators (FoR) to carry
out studies to identify transmission infrastructure and control
requirements for RE capacity additions envisioned in 12 th
five year plan of Government of India. PGCIL was also made
to estimate capital requirement and financial strategy [25].
Concept of Renewable Energy Management Centre (REMC)
for effective handling of intermittency and variability of
Renewable Energy was proposed in this report called Green
Energy Corridors. PGCIL estimated the capital requirement
for transmission expansions and control requirement as 6
Billion Euros. Intra, Interstate Transmission lines for
facilitating RE power from RE rich potential states to other
states as well as absorption of this power into the state,
transmission corridors were proposed.
Government of Germany expressed its willingness for
providing financial assistance through Kreditanstalt für
Wiederaufbau (KfW Bank). KfW had sanctioned
concessional loans upto 1 billion Euros for financing
transmission corridors. Financial assistance goes hand in
hand with technical assistance. Technical assistance is
provided through Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. GIZ through Indo German
Energy programme – Green Energy Corridors, contracted
consortium of Ernst & Young, University of Oldenburg,
Fraunhofer IWES and Fichtner. This consortium had
conducted studies in the areas of forecasting, balancing
requirements, improved market mechanism, ancillary
services, grid codes, control requirements and preparing
detailed project reports for establishment of REMC. 11
DPRs were prepared by consortium members and GIZ in
close consultation with PGCIL for 7 SLDC’s, 3 RLDC’s and
NLDC as shown in Fig. 6.
Figure 6. Location of proposed Renewable Energy Management Centres
On 27.08.16, PGCIL had come out with tender inviting
applications for establishing REMC in Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Southern Regional load
Dispatch Centre (SRLDC) latest by September 2016 [26].
Details from PGCIL tender have been discussed in
subsequent sections. The results are expected soon. REMCs
are proposed to be procured in 14 months after award of
contract [26].
1) RENEWABLE ENERGY MANAGEMENT CENTRES
Renewable Energy Management Centre (REMC), equipped
with Forecasting and scheduling tools & Real Time
Monitoring of RE generation for safe, secure and optimal
operations of the overall grid. REMC’s are currently
proposed to be co-located with already existing seven load
dispatch centres (Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan,
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu),
three regional load dispatch centres (Northern, Southern and
Western Load dispatch Centre) and at national load dispatch
Centre. Ministry of Power has allocated fund for
construction of these 11 proposed REMCs. These funds
would include cost for procuring SCADA system including
maintenance, Forecasting & Scheduling tool, services of
three forecasting service providers for providing wind and
solar forecasts, weather service providers, servers, wires and
other control equipment. In future these REMC’s may be
proposed for other states as well.
REMC is the “hub” for all information regarding RE power
generation in its area of responsibility. Conceptual
architecture is shown in Fig 7.
Figure 7. Schematic architecture of REMC [26]
Major functionalities of the proposed REMC would be:
• Forecasting of RE generation (day ahead, intraday,
week ahead)
• Online geospatial monitoring of RE Generation – at
the transmission grid boundaries & at RE pooling
Stations (through direct Data Acquisition OR
through interface with RE Developer monitoring
Systems)
 • Responsible for providing reliable RE data
(generation, forecasting ad scheduling data) to the
SLDC
• Provide SLDC with information for dispatching
and balancing RE power
• Central Repository for RE generation data for MIS
and commercial settlement purposes
• Coordination agency on behalf of SLDC for
interacting with RE Developers
FORECASTING TOOL
The main purpose of the forecasting tool is to provide
prediction of solar and wind generators close to actual so as
to help system operator in smooth grid operations and
enhanced system security. Schematic diagram of the
forecasting tool is depicted in Fig. 8.Forecasting tool consists
of three external forecasting service providers (FSPs) and
one internal forecasting module.
Figure 8. Schematic architecture of Forecasting tool [26]
Forecasting Service Provider (FSP) will provide Wind and
Solar generation forecast at State Transmission Utility
(STU) Pooling station level (including developer pooling
station/ Qualified coordinating Agency (QCA)/RE generator
level) as well as aggregated state level. FSP shall provide
Power forecast on Week ahead, Day ahead as well as Intra-
day basis [27]. Historical SCADA data from STU pooling
stations, available real time generations data and static data
will be shared with FSPs by the REMCs. Temporal
resolution for day ahead/ intraday will be 15 min block
interval and for week ahead will be hourly. For intraday
forecasting 16 revisions in a day are allowed in every 1.5
hours.
Internal forecasting tool shall be used to produce reference
prediction of power generation forecast in parallel to external
forecast provided by three FSP’s. It would be fully automatic
and will run on advanced auto adaptive algorithm without
any grid operator’s interventions. Real time generation data,
static data, historical SLDC data and weather forecast data
would be provided through REMC for operation of this
module. The algorithms would be fine-tuned based on the
forecast and real time generation data.
The weather forecast data would be provided by the
contractor to internal forecasting module.
The forecasts from external FSP’s and internal prediction
module would be optimally combined by forecast
combination and aggregation module using auto adaptive
algorithm. Combination of forecasts would be done by
assigning weights to forecasts provided by external FSP’s
and internal forecasting module based their historical
performances at individual sites and time horizons.
Forecasting aggregation would be done using upscaling
techniques for arriving at pooling station and state forecasts
[26].
For evaluating performances of different forecasting service
providers, metric root mean square error (RMSE)
normalized to available capacity shall be used. Error would
be calculated using formula shown in Equation1.
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 % = ∗ 100
𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
(1)
Where Available Capacity is the cumulative capacity rating
of the wind turbines/solar inverters that are capable of
generating power in a given time-block in entire control area.
Available Capacity would be equal to the Installed Capacity,
unless one or more turbines/inverters are under maintenance
or shutdown.
RMSE will be calculated for the duration of a year using
formula shown in Equation 2.
1 1/2
RMSE k = √𝑀𝑆𝐸 𝑘 = ( ∑𝑁 2
𝑡=1 𝑒 𝑡 + 𝑘 𝑡 ) 2
𝑁
N is total number of 15 minutes block in a year (365*24*4)
Initially for two years three FSP would be contracted to
provide solar and wind forecasts. The two best performing
FSP’s based on Accuracy evaluation on NRMSE for state
level aggregated forecast provided w.r.t to real time
generation (SCADA) data would be retained for providing
forecast for next two years. The contract of these FSP’s may
be extended for another two years as per mutual agreements.
Remittance to the FSP’S would be linked to NRMSE, first
year of operation would be considered as a stabilization
period.
From second year payment would be disbursed as:
 100 % payment of quoted cost for forecasting, if
error NRMSE of control area forecast is less than
7%
 90% payment of quoted cost for forecasting, if error
NRMSE of control area forecast is between 7% -
9%
 80% payment of quoted cost for forecasting, if error
NRMSE of control area forecast is between 9% -
11%
 70% payment of quoted cost for forecasting, if error
NRMSE of control area forecast is greater than 11%
 Performance evaluation would be a continuous process
and will be conducted year on year. If any slump
performance is observed in selected two FSP’s after two
years of service, then new FSP’s could be selected without
any financial implications. Further weather service provider
for internal forecasting module could be potentially replaced
in case of slump performance without any financial
implications.
SCHEDULING TOOL
The main purpose of scheduling tool is to enable individual
RE developers/ Generators/QCA to upload their schedules
and available capacity through web based system. Tool
would be configured to receive schedules from RE
Generators/QCA for 96 time blocks on day ahead basis and
16 times intraday revisions. This tool would have ability for
bidirectional data exchange with forecasting tool and
SLDC’s main scheduling tool. This tool will prepare final
day ahead schedule based on forecast information and
proposed RE Schedules by RE Generators/ QCAs [26]. Tool
would also calculate error in each time block using real time
generation data. The proposed tool would raise alarms in
case of non-publishing of schedules by Generators/ QCAs.
Scheduling tool also has a curtailment module for scheduling
curtailment in view of congestion and operational issues for
maintaining grid security. Curtailment instructions from this
module could be given in terms of percentage reduction or
absolute megawatt (MW) reductions.
III. CONCLUSIONS
Forecasting of solar and wind generatos have been mandated
by various inter and intra state regulations. These
regulations were made in order to facilitate grid operators in
integrating variable generation into the grid. Renewable
Energy Management Centre once made operation will
provide better visibility of Renewable generation to grid
operators through its forecasting and scheduling tools. This
would improve offtake from these variable sources, hence
would bring more investments from developers. REMC
would help government of India in realising targets of
installing 175 GW by 2022.

REFERENCES

[1] CEA, "Installed capacity report August 2016," [10] "CERC," [Online]. Available:
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