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Mine424 - Project Management in Mining
Mine424 - Project Management in Mining
Mine424 - Project Management in Mining
CHAPTER 4
FORECASTING
Example 4.1:
Year Electricity Consump. (GWh)
1998 1569
1999 1586
2000 1545
2001 1645
2002 1590 Let’s assume that a global mining company is operating 9 different
2003 1712
2004 1717 mines simultaneously since 1998. The records show that there is a
2005 1841
2006 1896
tremendous increase in the total electricity consumption of the
2007 2000
mines due to the increase in production capacity year by year.
2008 2072
2009 2350
General manager of the company wants to see the general trend in
2010 1910
2011 2120 electricity consumption of 20 years with a better illustration.
2012 2147
2013 2117
2014 2287
2015 2351
2016 2425
2017 2436
The constants in the equation ( and ) can be found with side by side solution of
the following formulas:
= +
( )= +
= +
= + ⇒ 287.2 = 9 ⇒ = 31.91
( )= + ⇒ 593 = 60 ⇒ = 9.88
The constants in the equation ( , , and ) can be found with side by side solution
of the following formulas:
= + +
= + +
= + +
Parabola Equation
Example 4.3: We have to forecast the sales of blister copper the mining company
produces for the coming years in order to establish a mining plan based on the
sales. Let us assume a Parabola equation model for our forecast by choosing the
year 2001 as basis.
Solution:
Sales of blister copper (1000t)
Years Y X XY X2 X2Y X3 X4
1997 3.6 -4 -14.4 16 57.6 -64 256
1998 5.6 -3 -16.8 9 50.4 -27 81
1999 10.1 -2 -20.2 4 40.4 -8 16
2000 16.5 -1 -16.5 1 16.5 -1 1
2001 23.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2002 31.1 +1 +31.1 1 31.1 +1 1
2003 47.4 +2 +94.8 4 189.6 +8 16
2004 64.6 +3 +193.8 9 581.4 +27 81
2005 85.3 +4 +341.2 16 1364.8 +64 256
= . = = 593. = = 2331.8 = =
Parabola Equation
Solution(cont’d):
287.2 = 9 + 60
593 = 60
2331.8 = 60 + 708
Exponential Equation
= ⟺ log = log + log
The constants in the equation ( and ) can be found with side by side solution of
the following formulas:
Exponential Equation
Example 4.4: We have to forecast the sales of blister copper the mining company
produces for the coming years in order to establish a mining plan based on the
sales. Let us assume a Exponential equation model for our forecast by choosing the
year 2001 as basis.
Solution:
Sales of blister copper (1000t)
Years Y X logX XlogY X2
1997 3.6 -4 0.55630 -2.22520 16
1998 5.6 -3 0.74819 -2.24457 9
1999 10.1 -2 1.00432 -2.00864 4
2000 16.5 -1 1.21748 -1.21748 1
2001 23.0 0 1.36173 0 0
2002 31.1 +1 1.49276 +1.49276 1
2003 47.4 +2 1.67578 +3.35156 4
2004 64.6 +3 1.81023 +5.43069 9
2005 85.3 +4 1.93035 +7.72140 16
= . = = 11.80 = 10.30 = 60
Exponential Equation
Solution(cont’d):
11.79 = 9 log
10.30 = 60 log
120
100
Sales Tonnage (1000t)
80
Exponential Equation ∑( − )
60 =
Actual Data −1
Straight Line
40
Parabolic Equation : Standard error of estimates
20 : Actual data values
: Estimated values
0 : Number of values in the series
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Years
Average of X values
( )
/ = ∓ +
Sum of squares of errors for X values, = ∑( − )
Number of observation
t-test result for the confidence interval of 1-α and degree of freedom of (n-2) (from the t-test table)
Example 4.4: We have to forecast the sales of blister copper the mining company
produces for the coming years in order to establish a mining plan based on the
sales. Find the confidence interval of the straight line fitted into the data.
Solution(cont’d):
t-test table
=9
Degree of freedom = n − 2 = 9 − 2 = 7
= 2.365
Solution(cont’d):
SS = (Y − Y) = 20.2
20.2
= = = 1.70
−2 7
= ( − ) = 60
1 (X − X) 1 (X − 0)
Y / = Y ∓ t SE + Y / = Y ∓ 2.365 × 1.70 × +
n SS 9 60
1 −4 − 0
Y = 4.9 − 2.365 × 1.70 × + ≈ 2.4
9 60
1 −4 − 0
Y = 4.9 + 2.365 × 1.70 × + ≈ 7.4
9 60
Sales of blister
Years X copper (1000t)
Y
1997 -4 3.6 4.9 2.4 7.4
1998 -3 5.6 5.4 3.3 7.4
1999 -2 10.1 8.5 6.8 10.2
2000 -1 16.5 14.4 12.9 15.8
2001 0 23.0 22.9 21.6 24.2
2002 +1 31.1 34.2 32.7 35.6
2003 +2 47.4 48.1 46.4 49.8
2004 +3 64.6 64.8 62.7 66.8
2005 +4 85.3 84.1 81.6 86.6
Solution(cont’d):
Fitted line (dash line) equation:
100
y = 1.3543x2 + 9.8833x + 22.882
90
80
Upper bound with
max values
70
Lower bound
with min values
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5