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Section 2 - Macroeconomics Complete Pack
Section 2 - Macroeconomics Complete Pack
INFLATION
1. Measuring UET:
a. CPI (Consumer Price Index) – shows the cost of living for a typical household –
compares the value of the basket of goods and services for a particular class of consumer
in the current year as compared to the value of the same basket of goods and services in
the base year. (Cost of living index)
2. Problems of using CPI
a. Different rates of inflation for different consumers (depending on the different quantities
consumed by different types of consumers (economic levels))
b. Different rates of inflation depending on cultural / regional difference: eg: South Indians
buy more rice than North Indians – inflation affects them differently.
c. Consumption patterns change due to change in relative prices. (substitute goods)
d. Consumers using ‘sales’ / discount times due to which consumption time is affected.
e. Consumption changes due to new products introduced – the base year basket does not
have that or take it into account.
f. Can’t be used to compare countries.
g. Comparability is not possible over a long period of time – goods go in and out of the
‘basket.’
3. Core rate of inflation: calculating inflation by ignoring certain goods like food and energy
(oil) which are highly volatile in nature (Then CPI)
4. Producer Price Index: several indices of prices which are received by the producer at different
stages of the production process. (PPI for inputs, intermediate goods, and final goods).
5. Consequences of Inflation:
a. Redistribution effects:
Better off Worse off
Savers if the rate of interest is greater People who receive a fixed income (PP
than the rate of inflation. falls, RV of money falls)
Lenders if the rate of interest is greater Savers if the rate of inflation is greater than
than the rate of inflation. the rate of interest.
Borrowers if rate of inflation is lesser Lenders if the rate of inflation is greater
than rate of inflation. than the rate of interest.
Payers of fixed incomes, because the real - Holders of cash, since PP has
value of money falls, purchasing power fallen.
falls. - People who receive incomes that
increase less rapidly than inflation.
- Borrowers when rate of interest is
greater than rate of inflation.
b. Uncertainty – investors, consumers, producers are all uncertain due to the rising prices.
Consumers and investors postpone their expenditure, demand falls, producers produce
less.
c. Menu cost and shoe leather cost.
d. Money illusion – some people feel better off after receiving incomes not realizing that the
PP has fallen – fail to realize that the prices have also risen, and start behaving
irrationally.
e. Reduces international competitiveness – prices in Country X rise faster than Country Y,
so exports for Country X fall and imports rise, so the balance between net exports
becomes unfavorable.
6. Types of inflation:
a. Demand pull – Excess of AD over AS at the full employment level which leads to
inflation in the economy.
b. Cost pull inflation – increase in cost of production due to supply-side shocks. (increase
can be because of rise in wages, rise in material prices, natural calamities, and rising oil
prices.)
7. Demand pull inflation
a. UET is lesser than NRU
b. No cyclical UET
8. Cost pull inflation
a. UET is greater than NRU
b. No cyclical unemployment.
c. Stagflation.
d. Demand deficient UET.
e. Stagflation – (UET rises, APL rises)
9. Deflation – rarely seen in real-life situations.
10. Why not in real life?
a. The wages of the workers do not fall (trade unions) and since the wages do not fall,
sellers find it difficult to cut costs, hence prices don’t usually fall.
b. Falling prices might lead to price wars, especially in oligopolistic firms since the rival’s
reaction is unknown – so prices don’t usually fall to avoid price wars.
c. Firms avoid price drops due to menu cost as well.
11. Types of deflation – good deflation and bad deflation.
12. Good deflation – due to increase in AS.
13. Bad deflation – due to fall in AD
a. AD falls = consumers postpone consumption, so prices fall further, and UET rises. As
UET rises, AD goes further down (people go on postponing).
b. SRAS shifts to the right since the cost of production falls (because workers are insecure
and accept lower wages. Spiral begins after second AD push.
14. Consequences of deflation:
a. Redistribution effects
Better off Worse off
Borrowers, if rate of interest is lesser than Borrowers when rate of interest is greater
rate of deflation. than rate of deflation.
Holder of cash (purchasing power and RV
of money has risen)
Savers if rate of interest is greater than Savers when rate of interest is lesser than
rate of deflation. rate of deflation.
Lenders when rate of interest is greater Lenders when rate of interest is lesser
than rate of deflation. than rate of deflation.
Receivers of fixed incomes since RV of Payers of fixed income since RV of
money has risen. money has risen.
3. Monetary Policies – the policy that deals with the supply of money and credit in the economy.
a. Central banks – banks for the government, and deals with commercial banks.
b. Commercial banks – deals with the common public.
Functions of the Central Bank
1. Banker to the government – provides guidance on loans, rate of interest, et cetera.
2. Banker to the commercial banks – commercial banks have to keep a certain percentage of
their deposits with the central banks as reserves (cash reserve rates (CRR))
3. Regulates the commercial banks:
a. Gives guidance on who to lend to, when to lend, which sector, etc.
b. Commercial banks have to submit their books to the central bank.
c. Central bank has to approve mergers between commercial banks.
4. Lender of last resort – if commercial banks cannot pay, they borrow from the central bank.
5. Controller of monetary policy.
*Bank rate – the rate at which CB loans to commercial banks.
*Statutory liquidity deposits - % of total deposits that commercial banks have to keep with themselves
as reserves.
*Open market operations are the buying and selling of bonds in the open market.
- Expansionary MP (when the objective is to increase the AD)
- Contractionary MP (when the objective is to decrease the AD)
Policy Negative effects Positive effects
CB reduces the bank rate. Time lag – for problem to be CB independence – no political
Bank rate reduces so recognized, for policy to take constraints, so quick
commercial banks borrow effect. implementation.
more, then lend more, so
investments and consumer Might be ineffective in No crowding out.
expenditure increases = rise in recession, because monetary
AD. policy presupposes that No political constraints
Reduce the legal reserve ratio. commercial banks are willing because no changes made in
Less CRR and less statutory to adjust their lending rates – in government budget or merit
liquidity deposits. inflation, they will decrease,
= More disposable funds for but in recession they may be goods provision or taxation
commercial banks, I and C reluctant to increase lending revenues.
increase = rise in AD. because they fear the
Open market operations. consumers may be unable to Independence from
CB buys bonds from pay them back. government – CB can make
commercial banks so they have decisions that are for the long-
more cash in hand, lending Affects government objectives term benefit of the economy
increases, C and I increase = + domestic and foreign market regardless of how politically
rise in AD. variables + exchange rates, unpopular the policies are.
Moral suasion. creating confusion and conflict.
Verbal order to do it. Can do fine-tuning, because
Demand side policy, so cannot interest rates can be adjusted
deal with supply side shocks. incrementally.
Contractionary / tight monetary policies – to decrease aggregate demand by increasing the rate of
interest or decreasing the money supply so that consumers choose to decrease consumption,
investments fall due to high rates of interest, and AD falls.
Inflation targeting monetary policy – where the central bank makes a commitment to a certain level of
inflation in the economy.
1. Advantages of inflation targeting:
a. Low rate of inflation
b. Stable rate of inflation
c. Improved ability to speculate on future rates of inflation – since the CB has opened
communications with the public about the objectives
d. Better coordination between monetary and fiscal policy – govt can complement CB
e. More transparency and accountability for CB
2. Disadvantages of inflation targeting:
a. Reduced ability of CB to pursue other macroeconomic objectives.
b. Reduced ability to respond to supply side shocks – eg if oil prices suddenly rise leading to
stagflation and cost-push inflation, then the CB may need expansionary policy to pull
through which means higher rate of inflation than what they planned
c. Can’t deal w financial crisis – expansionary policy will mean higher inflation rate than
planned
d. Finding the right target – can’t be too high or too low
e. Inflation targeting relies heavily on forecasting, which can be unreliable.
3. Automatic stabilizers – factors that reduce fluctuations in the business cycle without any
interference from government authorities.
a. Progressive taxes
b. UET benefits
Supply-side policies focus on the production side of the economy by increasing production capacity
and institutional framework, and focusing on improving the quantity and quality of factors of
production.
Interventionist supply-side policies:
Presupposes that a free market cannot achieve the desired results of production on its own and
requires government intervention (favored by Keynesian economists).
1. Investment in human capital – training and education (retraining programs for structurally
unemployed workers, skills training to reduce NRU, assistance with relocation for
geographically unemployed workers, training to make workers more skilled and
productive + education is a merit good so justified). And improvement in and access to
healthcare services (merit good + improves employee productivity = economic growth.
2. Investment in new technology – helps with improvement in physical capital = economic
growth. LRAS to the right in the long run, AD increases in the short run + added
incentives such as tax incentives by govt to private firms to do R & D. Positive
externalities of R & D too.
3. Investment in infrastructure - helps with improvement in physical capital = economic
growth. LRAS to the right in the long run, AD increases in the short run + better
productivity and efficiency.
4. Industrial policies – support for small or medium sized firms, and infant industries, which
receive grants, subsidies, tax exemptions, and tariffs (protection against imports).
Market-based supply side policies:
Presupposes that market automatically tends towards potential GDP and full employment level, and
that the focus of governments should be on creating optimal conditions for that rather than
stabilization.
1. Encouraging competition – forces firms to reduce costs, become more efficient, and
potentially increase the quality of their products. The need to be competitive will ensure that
resources are allocated effectively + LRAS shifts to the right.
a. Privatization – transfer of ownership of a firm from the public to the private sector, on the
premises that government firms are usually more inefficient due to bureaucratic
limitations, high administrative costs, and inefficient workers.
b. Deregulation – elimination or reduction of government regulations on private sectors (on
the assumption that these regulations decrease competition and encourage inefficiency)
(Regulations often control prices and output, which protects firms from competition).
(Social regulations such as worker and public safety from private sector activities are
strengthened though).
c. Private financing of public sector projects – private firms compete to be chosen = increase
in efficiency.
d. Contracting out to the private sector – competition to get the contract.
e. Restricting monopolies – preventing certain mergers, anti-monopoly legislation, etc.
f. Trade liberalization – forcing domestic producers to compete with international ones.
2. Labor market reforms – Reducing labor market rigidities and making the labor market more
competitive to reduce the NRU and lower labor costs.
a. Abolishing minimum wage legislation – more workers can be hired, firms can make
greater profits = investment = economic growth.
b. Weakening the power of trade unions – worker bargaining power falls, they accept lower
wages, more workers hired, firm profits rise = investment = economic growth.
c. Reducing UET benefits – UET people won’t be dependent, forced to look for a job = ET
rises.
d. Reducing job security – firms are more likely to hire if they can fire. Reduced job security
means a worker is forced to be productive if he wants to keep his job. Easy fire means
firms don’t have to pay high compensation to workers when fired = high profits,
economic growth.
3. Incentive related policies
a. Reducing personal income tax – lead to higher after-tax income, leading to an incentive
for people to provide work. Affects the aggregate supply, LRAS shifts right in the long
run.
b. Lowering taxes on capital gains – higher income, higher savings = investment and
economic growth.
c. Lowering corporate profit tax = investment and R & D expenditure = greater output and
economic growth.
Supply side policies
Advantages Disadvantages
Helpful in a recession by working on the AD Time lags – the supply side stuff needs time to
side and closing the recessionary gap. materialize, such as the R & D and the
investment.
Play important roles in increasing potential
output. In an inflation, it may contribute to inflationary
pressure.
Reduce inflationary pressures – LRAS shifts
right and if AS can keep up with AD then
average price levels face little to no upward
pressures. (COP low)
Arguments favoring:
Interventionist Market-based
Investment allows the targeting of sectors to Intervention could lead to allocative inefficiency
boost growth. while reliance on the market can lead to long
term growth.
Industrial policies have allowed the Asian
Tigers to emerge by investment in human Possibility of government failure – due to
capital = productivity. political constraints, lack of information, or
unintended consequences of actions.
Lowering tax rates impacts the demand side too
much, more than supply side, so interventionist Intervention requires government spending =
is better. opportunity cost.
Incentive market-based policies lead to deficit in Govt spending also requires high taxes, which
budget. are demotivators for work and thus impact
productivity.
Market-based policies that encourage
competition in the short run could cause Interventionist could lead to budget deficits.
unemployment. Easy firing means firms often
fire workers to keep costs low. Job losses in the
public sector could happen if the contracts are
given to private sector + overall job loss if
contracted to another country.