IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No.

2, May 1994 957

A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO RESIDENTIAL LOAD MODELING

A. Capasso (*) IEEE Senior Member, W. Grattieri (**), R. Lamedica (*), A. Prudenzi (*) IEEE Member

(*)Electrical Engineering Dept., University of Rome "La Sapienza"

Via Eudossiana 18,00184 Rome, Italy
(**) ENEL-CREL (Italian Electricity Authority - Electrical Research Center)
Via A. Volta 1, Cologno Monzese, Milan, Italy

Abstract - A model of electric residential end-use is proposed for
establishing the load diagram of an area by a process of synthesis.
The model follows a "bottom-up" approach, allowing construction
of the relative load shape of the area, starting from knowledge of
its most relevant socioeconomic and demographic characteristics,
Unitary Energy Consumption (UEC) and the load profiles of indi-
vidual household appliances. Several probability functions have
been introduced in order to cover the close relationship existing be-
tween the demand of residential customers and the psychological
and behavioral factors typical of the household; the model makes
frequent use of the latter through a Montecarlo extraction process.
The model has been applied for the simulation of a residential area
where field measurements of power demand had been made at 15-
minute intervals and a combined-mail survey had been conducted to
investigate household energy usage.
The paper reports the results of a comparison between recorded and
predicted load profiles.
INTRODUCTION
The development of models for ascertaining the load shape in end-
use areas is a cost-effective option for electricity utilities as it allows
reduction of load investigations to those needed for model tuning
and validation. This is especially true in the case of models which
also make provision for consideration of technological advances and
behavioral evolution in residential energy usage.
Models provide extremely interesting possibilities where load s h a p
ing is concerned, particularly as regards evaluation of the diverse
Load Management (LM) options available to the utility within the
framework of various Demand Side Management (DSM) programs,
as also indicated by Chan et al. [l].
Researchers operating in this sector have already produced several
residential load-shaping models through the adoption of economet-
ric-statistical, engineering-end-use or combined approaches [2,3,4],
but there have been few attempts to broach the subject of the discre-
tionary nature of residential energy usage.
However Walker & Pokoski [5] have made a relevant contribution
in this regard by introducing the concept of probability.functions
such as "availability" and "proclivity" which are needed in order to
assure correct defmition of psychological factors affecting energy
usage by residential customers.
93 SM 498-6 PWRS A paper recommended and approved
by the IEEE Power System Engineering Committee of
the IEEE Power Engineering Society for presentation
at the IEEE/PES 1993 Summer Meeting, Vancouver, B.C.,
Canada, July 18-22, 1993. Manuscript submitted Aug.
31, 1992; made available for printing May 7, 1993.
PRINTED IN USA
Over the last few years, Italy has given much attention to the appli-
cation of DSM policies in the residential sector. This has culminated
in recent legislation framed to permit residential customers to opt
for a two-part tariff which provides for cheap power in off-peak
periods.
In order to arrive at a suitable method for evaluating the impact
of DSM policies on residential customers, a simulation model
(ARGOS) has been developed following a "bottom-up'' ap-
proach. Though such a methodology tends to be highly complex,
it is extremely accurate, thus guaranteeing that the approach is
adequately customer-oriented. Moreover, the implementation of a
validated customer response model, allowing to evaluate and predict
the impact of the different rate policies which may be implemented
within the framework of DSM programs, results more feasible.
The good results obtained are attributable to the fact that the model
allows reproduction of the load diagram of an end-use area by a
process of synthesis that permits differentiation between the behav-
ioral and engineering components of power consumption. The
synthesis involves aggregation of the load diagrams of each house
hold there, taking due account of the macroscopic socioeconomic
and demographic characteristics of the area concerned.
1. OVERVIEW OF THE MODEL
Load shaping of residential end-users by a process of synthesis is a
highly complex task, because household energy usage is intimately
linked to lifestyle-related psychological factors that are, of course,
extremely subjective and not easily defined with any degree of
precision. Nor does the definition of the standard behavior of the
various types of customer through statistical correlations within the
framework of load-research fully resolve the problem, because it
fails to consider the random variability of the demand. This aspect,
however, is revealed by surveys covering a given type of family
during the same day (cross-sectional analysis) and the same family
over a period of several days (longitudinal analysis) [I]. The varia-
bility factor, moreover, is inherent in analyses performed on end-
use areas of limited dimensions.
In order to develop a model that takes account of all these require
ments, a load-shape synthesis approach based on the following two
levels has been adopted:
Level 1 : aggregation of individual appliance demand so as to pro-
duce an individual household demand profile;
Level 2: aggregation of the load shapes of various households so as
to derive the end-use area load profile by synthesis.
In developing the model it was found essential to make provision for
consideration of the relevant psychological and behavioral aspects.
This was achieved through logic rules, implemented in an automatic
procedure, thus permitting quantification of interrelations between
the various elements which constitute the essential basis of energy
usage by residential customers.

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 958
The elementary units composing the residential customer model
have been identified as:
* appliance * household member
Combination of these elementary units leads to the basic aggregation
referred to as "the household".
In other words, it is considered that an end-use area load shape is
determined essentially by interrelations between appliances and
members of the household. However such interrelations may pro-
duce different demand-profile results, depending on the geographic
area involved and the type of household concerned. In order to
reproduce the psychological factors which form the very basis of
domestic energy usage, the interrelations in question have been
expressed as rules and constraints affecting certain functions which
have been introduced in the model. These functions reflect the
average tendency of members of the household to carry out various
specific activities at home at given times of the day.
T h e functions introduced (generally of probabilistic
type) may be summarized as follows:
Behavioral functions
- Availability at home of each member of the household; a histo-
gram representing percentage values is assigned to the various
time intervals which make up the day. The time reference of this
function refers to such critical events as going out to school/work,
coming home, meal-times and bed-times.
- Home-activities;the various activities involving the use of electric
energy by members are grouped under four main headings:
housework, personal-hygiene, cooking and leisure. The per-
centage probability of their distribution during the day is given.
- Appliance usage; appliances most frequently found in a household
are assigned a percentage distribution of usage during the day.
- Proclivityfor home-activities; each member is assigned his or her
percentage availability to carry out each of the above home-
activities.
- Human resources; each member is assigned a batch of resources
such as eyes, ears and hands which are expressed symbolically in
terms of percentage. The ensuing values are useful for quantifying
the possibility of each member using more than one appliance at
the same time (the function is introduced to exclude - for example
- the simultaneous use of a flat-iron and a hair-drier, while permit-
ting the simultaneous use of the latter and a radio or TV).
- Appliance ownership; each type of household is assigned a param-
eter indicative of a given set of appliances available. This parame-
ter depends on certain features that are characteristic of the type
of household, such as assumed income, number of members,
socioeconomic characteristics of the relevant end-use area, etc..
As an alternative to the histograms the functions availability at home
and home activities of the various types of household members can
be represented by normal type probability distributions. In this case
functions are described in terms of time instants of home "in/outgo-
ing" (or "startlend" activity) and of duration of the corresponding
availability at home (or activity) (see also Para. 4).
Engineering functions
- Appliance mode of operation:
.Cycle or activation time
.Power demand (depending on the type, size or model)
*Averageannual consumption
- Household demand limit (fmed by contract, in Italy)
- Technological penetration; saturation of appliances embodying
any technological innovation.
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Extractions obtained by the Montecarlo method are introduced to
simulate random differences from the typical average daily behav-
iors assigned. In the proposed model the household load diagram
thus ensues from each member activating one or more of the appli-
ances present in the home. Activation is considered to be deter-
mined by heuristic rules which interrelate engineering and behavior-
al probability functions.
2. MODEL STRUCTURE AND IMPLEMENTATION
By means of the two-level synthesis procedure, the proposed model
permits simulation of one of the probable load diagrams of a
household to which specific socioeconomic and demographic char-
acteristics have been assigned. The resulting load profile is then
combined with those obtained from simulations on all the other
households in the area concerned. Each simulation step thus pro-
vides an update of the demand as a running total. On a step-by-step
basis, therefore, the results of the ongoing simulation for a house-
hold having specific characteristics are also known in terms of
power, consumption and the contribution of each specific appliance
to the demand profile.
A schematic representation of the model structure and implementa-
tion (ARGOS procedure) is shown in Fig. l.
I I
Build main characteristics Build the oppliances set used
for the simulated day assign each appliance working/
(loop for m members of
the household)
I
Build the household doily
Aggregate household load
profiles to build load shape
of end-use area
(loop for n households)
Fig. 1 -Schematic flow-chart of model implementation (ARGOS).
2.1 Specit%data-fde
All the data needed for characterization of the elementary units
(namely appliances and members of the household) are contained in
a specific data-file constructed by means of a batch procedure, or an
automatic preprocessing procedure. The file must contain the fol-
lowing parameters regarding appliances and household members:
appliance
. recognition label which connects appliance usage to the pertinent
home-activity (cooking, housework, personal-hygiene, leisure)
.'mode of operation, which may b e completely automatic
(e.g.refrigerator, freezer) or call for the use of human resources.
As regards this last mode of operation, the procedure further
distinguishes between activation and usage (e.g. hair-drier) on the
one hand, and activation only (e.g. dish-washer, clothes-washer)
on the other
. power demand limits (minimum, maximum)
. workinglduty cycle typical duration

. usage profile (not essential because if not explicitly assigned it is
replaced by the hourly profile of the corresponding homeactivity)
. unitary energy consumption (UEC)
* penetration
. probability of daily usage
* human resources engaged in usage (eyes, ears and hands as per
centages)
* deferrability (possibility of shifting the usage in time)
* working/duty cycle of certain appliances forming the base load of
the household's global demand diagram (see 8 2.2)
household member
. type (adult male, adult female, boy, girl)
. income (high, medium, low) presumed on basis of job
* availability at home profile
* proclivity for home-activities (assignment of a percentage of the
total availability daily at home)
In order to aggregate the elementary units in households, it is also
necessary to assign the following data which serve to characterize
the different households present in the area simulated:
i. number and type of household members
ii. number of such households in the area
iii. average electricity consumption of household
iv. appliance ownership
The data for Parameters i and ii can be assigned either by a deter-
ministic procedure or on the basis of demographic statistics.
2.2 Composition of household load diagram
The ARGOS procedure reconstructs a probable load diagram of a
household with given characteristics, through the aggregation of the
load diagrams of the individual appliances utilized during the day.
The procedure is designed to attain two distinct objectives.
The first is that of identifying those time intervals when the follow-
959
that concerning the activation, by the i-th member, of an appliance
whose operation, characterized by a power requirement and a lapse
of time, is compatible with the residual power and energy. A more
detailed mathematical description of the model is in the Appendix.
Fig.2 illustrates schematically the two main phases through which
the model builds up the load diagram of an individual household.
The first, concerning the search for time intervals in which there is
at least one person at home, starts from an average seasonal profile;
in order to derive the daily profile of the simulation, the procedure
executes a Montecarlo extraction phase on the times of entering and
leaving home, having considered a probability distribution within
the range of time intervals covering a reasonable variability toler-
ance (graph AT=f(t) of Fig.2). The intersection of the profile of the
presence of members at home (by way of example, F i g 2 indicates
that for kitchen activities, Sj= f(t)) identifies the time intervals
during which the i-th member could activate one of the appliances
associated with the activity in question.
The latter hourly profile is multiplied by a coefficient (Y. This takes
account of the capacity of the member to perform the relevant activ-
ity and also of whether that activity can be performed, namely, that
the person concerned is not doing something else during the same
period of time. The last profile indicated in the first row of Pig.2,
Tij=f(t), is obtained in this way.
Regarding appliance selection, the procedure extracts from a list
which covers the average range of appliances present in the house
hold simulated, taking account of the daily-use probability assigned
to each of these. The range reflects the data concerning appliance
penetration as a function of the socioeconomic conditions derived
from ISTAT Consumption Tables (see paragraph 3).
The procedure extracts the duration and power requirement of the
activated appliance's working-cycle, or its duty-cycle in the case of
an automatic cycle (e.g. dish-washer or clothes-washer).
After having ascertained the energy necessary for the appliance to
operate, the procedure indicates the activation thereof on the T, pro-
file, where possible.
In the Fig.2 example the only position possible on the final P(t)
diagram is between 18:OO and 22:30 hours; a Montecarlo extraction

1; ,
ing conditions exist contemporaneously: at least one member of the procedure is employed to select the time of activation.
household at home, and the possibility and wish of that member to In the hour considered for the simulation, the allocation follows
activate one of the household appliances. The second objective is general criteria, favoring the percentually-predominant activity.

~ ; ' ; p ~ ~ ~ p:Ai-th
levoi ~
household member from
*'
h~; ,o h
; member i ~the ~simulated
for ~ , ~:day~; ~t ;$mj-th:
doily
o hprofile ; o f ; c r u ; ; u hhome-activity j - i
averoge typological
profile c3'
' 0 4 8 12 16 20 24h 0 4 8 12 16 20 24h0 4 8 12 16 20 24h

PM1
Extraction of k-th Pllrnlt
appliance related to Presidual
j-th home-activity Ek=energy consumed Pappl'ance
from appliances by k-th appliance 0
doto set working cycle
4h
"L"J
d=durotion of usage
PW1 t
Plirnit
Presidual

Pdernand

Fig. 2 -Simplified schematic of appliance load diagram allocation procedure for construction of household load diagram for simulated day.
Schematic refers the case of i-th member of household using electric oven.

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 960
Activation probabilities are assigned by criteria that limit the aver- TABLE I: Geographical breakdown of household size (5%).
age daily energy within tolerance bands around the values indicated
by national statistics. Number of Northerr C e n t r a l 3out h e r n
members Italy Italy Italy
2.3 Composition of load diagram of entire simulated area
1 7.5
The procedure described in 2.2 is repeated for all the households in 2 16.3
the end-use area. 3 27.8 26.4
The model provides a wide range of computational and intermediate 4 33.7 28.2 34.0
processing options for simulation of an entire end-use area. Simula- 5 11.1 17.3 20.8
tion results are reproduced in the form of output tables or diagrams 2 6 4.4
referring to:

- daily load diagrams calculated at preassigned intervals (e.g. fif-
teen minutes) of:
-entire area (average per user demand)
-individual household
-household types
-individual appliance (its contribution both to the individual
household load profile, and to the load profile of the entire area)
-individual home-activity (its contribution to the load profile of
the entire area).
- energy consumption of individual appliances, individual home-
activities, individual and global household types
- partial and global energy consumption expenses evaluated on the
basis of the various applicable tariffs.
3. DATA SOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT
The data needed to simulate the load shape of a residential area can
be broken down into the following classes:
Demographic and socioeconomic data
. Data concerning the lifestyle of the persons concerned and their
electricity-usage habits
. Engineering data on operation of the relevant household appli-
ances.
These data have been utilized to establish the "Behavioral functions"
and "Engineering functions'' already mentioned.
TABLE 11: Geographical breakdown of male proclivity for home-
activities such as housework and cooking (5%).
Italy Italy Italy
Often
Never 27.8 26.4 16.0
diverse activities performed during the daily life of a household,
thus providing all the necessary data concerning psychological and
behavioral factors affecting energy usage at home.
By way of explanation, Table 11 reports data on the participation of
an employed male in housework and cooking. On the basis of simi-
lar data has been possible to outline average profiles on the proclivi-
ty to engage in various home-activities.
As things stand at the moment, the procedure still do not permit
breakdown of the data on the basis of calendar time
(weekday/weekend, wintedsummer).
ISTAT has been running its Household Consumption Survey con-
tinuously for some years now. This provides the main characteris-
tics on the national-user's electric energy consumption and, more
especially, the relationship of this with socioeconomic, demographic
and regional conditions [I.

Demonrauhic and socioeconomic data

These data are available from statistical studies conducted within the
framework of nationwide demographic and social surveys made Income c l a s s High Middle Low
periodically by organizations such as ISTAT (Italian Central Insti-
tute of Statistics) and CENSIS (Social Investment Studies Center). Northern Electric [$I 8 7 5
They permit very detailed characterization of social and demograph- Italy Total [ $ I 737 637 486
ic aspects. Regarding the latter, for example, Table I reports the
data on the breakdown of families by size in north, central and Central Electric [ $ ] 10 7 6
southern Italy. Italy Total [ $ ] 639 573 322

Customers' lifestvle and habits Southern Electric [ $ ] 9 7 6

The two main sources of such data are:
Survey of Use of Time in Italy
+hrvey of Household Consumption
The Time Use Survey was conducted by ISTAT within the context
of a Multipurpose Survey covering a sample of about 40000 persons
between June 1988 and May 1989. The persons concerned were
asked to keep a diary listing all their activities during a given day,
and indicating in each case: a) starting and finishing times; b) brief
description of the activity; c) the place concerned; d) the person(s)
present during the activity; e) other activities performed at the same
time, if any [6].
Such surveys, of course, permit description and quantification of the
Italy Total [ $ I 557 452 312
Table 111 gives electricity consumption, with breakdown by pre-
sumed income and geographic area.
Ennineerinp data on auvliances
These data stem mainly from experimental investigations made by
constructors and organizations such as ENEL (Italian Electricity
Authority), ENEA (National Institute for New Technologies,
Energy and Environment) and CESI (Italian Experimental Electric
Center) [8]. The electrical aspects of the workinglduty cycle of the
commonest household appliances have been characterized on the

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basis of the results, which also indicated the main technological
innovations designed to favor energy-saving.
Some of the data utilized are as follows:
- UEC of each appliance grouped by sue, brand, etc.
- Typical setting-dependent load diagrams for each appliance
- Average annual consumption of each appliance class (dish-
washer, refrigerator, etc.)
- Technological characteristics and innovations
The residential electric load in Italy has some peculiar characteris-
tics such as:
a) a fmed contractual demand limit for customers (3 or 6 kw);
b) very low levels of penetration ( < 2-3 W ) of weather-dependent
appliances such as air-conditioners and ventilators;
c) home heating provided almost entirely by natural gas or other
fossil fuels.
The model still does not include any data concerning residential
buildings or the average daily temperature profile.
Moreover, no thermal models have yet been implemented for elec-
tric water heaters and refrigerators, whose duty-cycle is also partial-
ly influenced by climatic conditions. While awaiting the validation
of available thermal models through field tests, which are under
way, reference has been made to average load diagrams obtained
from measurements of a large sample of such appliances produced
by the main manufacturers.
The "bottom-up'' approach used by the model provides a large de-
gree of flexibility when inserting in the data set appliances which
incorporate new manufacturing technologies and also new consump-
tion models as determined by load research.
4. CASE STUDY
The specific data-file forming the basis of the simulation of a resi-
dential end-use area can be compiled specially for the study of an
area where the data listed in Q 2.1 are available, or they can be
obtained automatically, with assistance from the program user.
In the latter case the user must assign certain macroscopic character-
istics, such as:
* day to be simulated
. geographic location of area
. number of households simulated
. presumed income band.
The socioeconomic conditions of the area are included in these
macroscopic characteristics because they affect the consumers' life
styles, of course, and hence determine different presences at home
and different consumption patterns. They also serve to assign labels
to the various prepared lists of appliances. The lists themselves
indicate the appliances possessed by the various households in
presumed income band.
The macroscopic characteristics assigned by the user permit the
execution of a preprocessing procedure to select certain sets of data
relating to the desired simulation. They thus allow production of the
specific data-fde.
To facilitate the search for the residential load and the analysis
thereof, the model is also implemented complete with certain utility
procedures contained in an extraction and aggregation rules set.
As the instructions representing these rules are in a meta-prograrn-
rning simplified language, the user has no difficulty in rapidly
modihing the heuristic rules which go to make up the electric load
profile. Such modifications can be extremely useful if the imple-
mented behavioral and engineering probability functions have to be
changed, following the acquisition of a new correlation law result-
ing from Load Research and econometric studies or application of
the model to new typological and functional realities.
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961
The program can access this set both during automatic compilation
of the specific data-file and during the construction of the load
diagrams for the individual households and the entire area.
The data needed for application of the model to specific, limited
end-use areas so that they can be characterized in order to optimize
existing plants or to plan plant resources in developing areas can be
supplemented by field surveys (census of household energy-use
habits in the area), and records of hourly load diagrams.
The model has been applied to a residential customer area including
95 households grouped in four buildings in the outskirts of Milan, in
order to run certain checks on the validity of the simulation results
for a limited end-use area.
Recordings have been made of the global demand profile measured
every quarter of an hour on a daily basis and over a one-month
period during the winter season. A combined-mail survey, based on
a questionnaire to which 70% of the households replied, has also
been conducted in the same area in order to investigate the demo-
graphic characteristics of households as well as the main aspects of
energy usage at home.
Probabilistic distributions gathered from answers to the question-
naire, together with those resulting from regional statistical surveys
and load-research have been fed into the model in the form of
behavioral and engineering probability functions. Fig. 3 illustrates
the probabilistic profiles of the different home-activities, as deduced
from elaboration of customers' answers. Further details of the
survey have been given by Capasso et al. [9].
ercent (%)
1 oc 100
8C
60
40
20
0 4 8 12 16 20 24h
-B- tiousowork -+ cooklng
0personal hygiene leisure time
Fig. 3 -Home-activities profiles of surveyed households
The performance of the model for the prediction of recorded load
profiles has been evaluated by comparison of simulated and meas-
ured power demand on a daily, weekly or monthly time basis.
Fig. 4 illustrates the variability range of recorded and simulated
daily load profiles obtained for each of the 22 working days within
the period examined.
Fig. 5 compares recorded and simulated average load profiles on a
monthly and weekly time basis.
The following Normalized Variation Factor (NVF) can be used to
produce a numerical evaluation which determines the extent to
which the simulations refled the recorded data:
Ci@redi - reci)2
NVF = (3)
n.reco2
 962
where: The results obtained for the maximum calculated values of weekly
predi = predicted demand at i-th time step and monthly averages respectively are:
reci = recorded demand at i-th time step
rec,, = average recorded demand NVF = 0.0124, NVF = 0.0099 (6)
n number of time steps in a day
XlW xi04 The calculated values reveal the "time averaging" effect of the
simulations, thus accounting for the steady reduction in the NVF
i 71-
value calculated on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, as also
reported by Walker & Pokoski [5].
6 6

-
g 4
5
-.-
g 4
5

1m w Male-employed €3
Availability at home
3 3 I m ~ , H a u s e - w i f a'(present and awake
2 2

1 1
clothes-washer
dish-washer
:0 5 lo 15 20 ' tv
a) time (hour) b) time (hour) liohting
Fig. 4 -Daily load profiles of 22 winter working days (month) as miscellaneous (leisure)
obtained from: a) recordings; b) simulation. miscellaneous (cooking)

refrigerator (B)
refrigerator (BQ

Fig. 6 -Predicted daily demand profile for a household.

[U1
700
I I I I I

0' 5 10 15 20
a) time (hour) b) time (hour)

Fig. 5 -Average load profiles on: a) weekly and b) monthly time

basis. Comparison between (-) recorded and (--) predicted
per household values.

Several NVF numerical evaluations have been made by assuming

that the recordings and the simulations fit sufficiently well, provided
that differences between predicted and recorded values fall within
the variation range of the load profiles recorded on different days.
Pairs of different days of recordings were compared in order to 1
calculate the NVF value. The resulting variability range of the 11

coefficient was: Fig. 7 -Predicted average (per household) daily load profile of the
simulated area and contribution of appliances related to
0.0801 2 NVF 2 0.0220 (4) housework (clothes-washer, dish-washer, miscellaneous).

The same evaluation was also made by comparing day-to-day varia-
tion of predicted versus recorded values. The result was as follows:
0.0527 2 NVF 2 0.0094
It is evident from comparison of (4) and (5) that the model provides
a good approximation of the daily recorded load diagram. The
highest value of the variability range for the daily simulations indi-
cated in (3,appears to fall well within the variability range of the
recordings referred to in (4).
NVF values have also been calculated in order to compare record-
ings and simulations on a weekly (5 working days) and monthly (22
working days) basis.
The possibilities guaranteed by the model to indicate the individual
contributions to the simulated-area load diagram, listed in 8 2.3,
permit precise estimations of indices such as "coincidence factor"
(5) and "load factor", which are particularly useful for analyses of
system peak load and DSM studies [9,10].
Fig. 6, for instance, illustrates the results of the daily load profile
simulation of a household with certain characteristics. It shows:
- breakdown of time spent at home by each member of the family,
derived from the extraction stage of 8 2.1;
- list of appliances being activated during the day;
- total daily load shape.
Fig. 7 illustrates the contribution to the average global load diagram

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on a wintertime weekday of the demand stemming from all the
appliances connected with housework, as predicted by simulation.
Starting from the observed distribution given by the histograms,
(see for instance home-activity diagrams of Fig. 3) a check was
made on the fitting possibilities offered by normal probabilistic
distribution.
Mean values and standard deviations (expressed in terms of time)
were evaluated on the basis of the frequency distributions surveyed,
in order to identify characteristic parameters of the corresponding
probability density function.
A good fitting of the statistical data with normal distribution func-
tions was not always found to be possible. However such a distribu-
tion was systematically adopted, because the greatest differences
were detected in the case of distributions with small numbers of
samples. Research is scheduled to explore the application of differ-
ent standard probability functions to non-normal distributions.
For instance, Fig. 8 illustrates the comparison between the availabil-
ity at home frequency distribution of a student (histogram), as ob-
tained from the answers to the questionnaire of the survey, and
those simulated assigning in input Gaussian probability functions
having several standard deviation values.
Fig.8 -Availability at home diagrams. Comparison of probabilistic
functions and frequency distribution surveyed (histograms).
5.CONCLUSIONS
A model based on a "bottom-up'' approach is proposed for establish-
ing the load profile of a residential area by a process of synthesis.
The following characteristics have to be provided in order to
achieve accurate simulation of the parameters considered fundamen-
tal for residential load research:
- Synthesis procedure involving aggregation on a two-level basis: a)
aggregation of the contribution made by individual appliances to
the household demand profile; b) aggregation of the various rele-
vant household profiles, so as to arrive at the demand shape of the
entire area;
- Introduction of "behavioral" and "engineering" probability func-
tions in order to reproduce the psychological factors affecting
residential demand;
- Adoption of a Montecarlo extraction process applied to average
behavior and characteristics represented by the above functions,
so as to take account of the highly random variability of the
demand.
The proposed model has been used to simulate a residential area,
where load recordings and a survey targeted on each individual
household were carried out simultaneously. The results are encour-
aging.
Because of the very flexible nature of the model stemming from its
bottom-up approach and structure, repeated changes can be made to
the behavioral and engineering functions as required, in order to
reproduce end-use variations resulting from technological innova-
tions affecting appliances and the socioeconomic evolution of
households.
Aspects of the model needing further development are: a) imple-
mentation of weather-dependent appliances models, such as HVAC
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963
applications, in view of a future likely increase of penetration in the
Italian residential sector; b) determination - through field measure-
ments and experimental tests - of a model of customer response to
Utility price signals to be-introduced in order to evaluate the impact
of various Load Management policies (Time of Day, Time of Use
tariffs).
APPENDIX:Mathematical description of the model
List of svmbols
j: home activity index;
i: household member index;
1: human resource index (1= 1t3)
Til: resource of the i-th member;
pij: proclivity of i-th member for j-th home activity;
Ai: availability at home daily profile of i-th member (average for
each member type;
A;: availability at home daily schedule of the i-th member for the
simulated day;
Sj: j-th home activity daily profile;
Pmt: contractual power demand limit of individual household;
k: mdex of appliance activated during day simulated;
P-,:minimum and maximum power demanded by the k-th appli-
ance;
d-,:miniium and maximum duration of dutylworking cycle of
the k-th appliance;
d,: duration of use of the k-th appliance;
Dg usage daily profile of the k-th appliance.
The daily load diagram of the user is simulated without taking
account of the chronological sequence during the day of the various
household-memberlapplianceinteractions, but instead locating the
use of each appliance in the different time intervals when the condi-
tions necessary for its usage occur (see also paragraph 2.2).
By extraction on the relative average probabilistic profile (Ai), each
member is assigned an hourly histogram which is representative of
hidher availability at home on the specific day simulated (A*i).
Starting from the hourly probability profile of the various activities
(Sj), the following is determined for each member:
Tij = (A: fl Sj).ailj
where:
cyilj = ri 'p..
In this manner various daily profiles are determined, one for each
resource and for each activity (see Fig. 2). The human resources
voluntarily made available by the entire household are thus:
Tlj = CiTij (A.3)
Each appliance k is ascribed a load diagram by probability extrac-
tion of the installed power and the duration of operation, within the
average characteristic ranges (P-, ,,P d-, d-). The total
energy absorbed during the day is:
E, = P;d,
The time profile of the resources necessary for using the k-th appli-
ance activated is:
IU = riledk
Indicating with:
Emt = Pmt.d,
 964
if:
E, < Ewt
the load cycle and hence the energy of the k-th appliance can be
located in a time interval of the simulated day. The residual energy
available for usage of the remaining appliances is:
Em,, = E,,-E,
hence, the time intervals (S,) of possible location of the successive
appliances are limited to those for which:
Some privileged time bands are identified for using the appliance k.
This is done on the basis of the usage daily profile (D,,if
assigned), or on the basis of the daily profile of the activity j with
which the appliance service is connected. The profile of the re-
sources made available within the whole household for the k-th
appliance activation is then:
F~~= ( c ~ T ~n~D,
)
or: (A. 10)
F,~= (ciT ~ n~ sj)
If it ensues that:
Ilj C F,j. (A.ll)
the daily time bands utilisable for time allocation of E, are identified
through the following time profile:
H, = s, n F~~n rlj (A. 12)
A Monte Carlo extraction on the probability profile Hljidentifies the
definitive time allocation.
The procedure continues with the updating of the profiles utilized
until the last extracted appliance is located.
The model considers the refrigerator and electric water-heater (the
latter in continuous-operation mode) as base loads in the house-
hold's global load diagram. Hence the working cycle of these appli-
ances is broken down into two distinct contributions:
Pb = C, + BC, (A. 13)
C, takes account of the power consumption resulting from automat-
ic, thermostatically-controlled cyclical activation which occurs
throughout the day to maintain the temperature set for the appliance,
while BC, takes account of power consumption resulting from use
of the appliance by a member of the household (opening the refrig-
erator, or turning on a hot-water faucet).
The load diagram of each of the k appliances activated is indicated
by P, and the total load diagram of the household by P(t). so:
P(t) = E, P, + E, P, (A. 14)
REFERENCES
[l] M.L. Chan, E.N. Marsh, J.Y. Yoon, G.B.Ackerman, N .
Stoughton, Simulation-based load synthesis methodology for
evaluating load-management programs, IEEE Transactions on
Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-100, n. 4, April 1981.
[2] J. Broehl, An end-use approach to demand forecasting, IEEE
Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-100,
n.6. June 1981.
[3] C.W. Gellings, R.W. Taylor, Electric load curve synthesis - A
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computer simulation of an electric utility load shape, IEEE
Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-100.n.
4, January 1981.
[4] EPRI, Combining engineering and statistical approaches to
estimate end-use load shapes, %l. 2: Methodology and results,
Report EA-4310, Electric Power Research Institute, Oct. 1985.
[5] C.F. Walker, J.L. Pokoski, Residential load shape modeling
based on customer behavior, IEEE Transactions on Power
Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-104. n. 7, 1985.
[6] ISTAT, Time Use Survey, Notiziario n. 10, 1990 (in Italian).
[A ISTAT, Household consumption: year 1987, vol. 14, 1989 (in
Italian).
[8] ENEA, Domestic appliances energetic consumptions, vols. 7-
10, 1992 (in Italian).
[9] A. Capasso, W. Grattieri, A. Invernizzi, F. Insinga, R.
Lamedica, A. Prudenzi, Wlidation tests and applications of a
model for Demand Side Management studies m residential bad
areas, CIRED 1993, Birmingham (UK), May 17-21, 1993.
[10]EPlU, Selected statktical methorls for analysis of load research
data, Report EA-3467, Electric Power Research Institute, May
1984.
BIOGRAPHIES
Alfonso Cauasso (M.72, SM.'92) was born in Padua, Italy, on
January 24, 1945. He graduated in electrical engineering from the
University of Rome, Rome, Italy, in 1968. He then joined the
Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome "La Sapienza", and
was appointed Assistant Professor in Electric Power Systems in
1969, Associate Professor in 1973 and Full Professor of Electric
Power Systems in 1980.
His main interests are in computer applications to Electric Power
Systems and in Railway Electrification.
Prof. Capasso is a member of the AEI (Italian Electrical Associa-
tion), the CEI Committee 110 (EMC), the Italian Committee of
CIRED and CIFI (Italian Railway Engineers Assoc.).
Walter Grattieri was born in Romano di Lombardia, Italy, on
November 9, 1954. He graduated in Electrical Engineering from the
Polytechnic of Milan in 1978. He joined the ENEL Electrical
Research Center, in Milan, in 1980. In 1990 he was a fellow of the
Advanced Study Program at the MIT's Center for Advanced Engi-
neering Study.
His main interests are in the field of Load Forecasting, Distribution
Planning and Demand Side Management.
He is a member of the IEA working group for the creation of an
Implementing Agreement on Technologies and Programmes for
Demand Side Management.
Regina Lamedica was born in Foggia, Italy, on December 6. 1952.
She graduated in Electrical Engineering (Hons.) from the University
of Bologna, Italy, in 1976. From 1976 to 1986 she was Assistant
Professor in Electric Power Systems at the University of Rome "La
Sapienza",Italy and since 1987 has been Associate Professor in
Electric Power Systems for Transportation.
Her main interests are in computer applications to Electrified
Transportation Systems and to Power Systems Analysis.
She is a member of CIFI (Italian Railway Engineers Association).
Alberto Prudenzi (M.'91) was born in Rome, Italy, on December
10, 1961. He graduated in Electrical Engineering from the Universi-
ty of Rome in 1987. Since 1992 he has been Assistant Professor in
Electric Power Systems.
His main interests are in computer applications in Power Systems.
He is a member of AEI (Italian Electrical Association).