Modular control work #1

of subject “Geologistics”
Variant 1

1. Enterprise want to invest in design of modern geoinformation system.

There is possibility invest in three IT companies. We can invest all amount of
money or divide it on parts. It was carried out investigation and was found that
after six month market will have 4 states. Possible profit according to states of
market is presented in table 1.
All amount of money that we have is 23600 USD. The parts on which we can
divide the sum is 5900 USD. Probability of the state of nature N1 equal 0,2, N2 –
0,1, N3 – 0,4; criterion of pessimism = 0,7.
Table 1
A possible profit for every $ 5900 The states of nature
invested N1 N2 N3 N4
Company 1 200 210 200 190
Company 2 160 190 190 160
Company 3 200 160 210 210
You have to calculate the values of Bayesian, Laplace’s, Wald’s, Savage’s
and Hurwicz Criterias for option for investment (1;1;2).
N4= 1-0.2-0.1-0.4=0.3
A possible profit for every $ 4300 invested The states of nature
N1(0.2) N2(0.1) N3(0.4) N4(0.3)
Strategy 1 (1;1;2) 760 880 1020 980

Strategy Bayesian Laplace Walds Hurwitz Savages

s N1 N2 N3 N4
S1 942 910 760 838 260 140 0 40

Bayesian= 760*0.2+880*0.1+1020*0.4+980*0.3=942
Laplaces= (760+880+1020+980)/4=910
Walds= min=190
Hurwitz= 0.7*760+0.3*1020=838

Conclusion: We should recommend to invest in the first company 5900$, in the

second company 5900$ and the third company 11800$ as the investment is the
most optimal concerning the risks and their analysis.

2. How to change the distribution of transport companies by routes (and also

the total minimum costs) if transport company # 4 reduces tariffs by 15% (the
 calculated tariff value is rounded to the nearest integer)? Use Hungarian method
for calculation.
Table – The matrix of the transport tariffs, $/km
Routs Transport companies
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 88 87 79 82 79
R2 87 94 76 86 81
R3 94 68 72 89 83
R4 85 97 68 94 97
R5 76 92 74 92 88

1) Usual tariffs:

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Min
R1 88 87 79 82 79 79
R2 87 94 76 86 81 76
R3 94 68 72 89 83 68
R4 85 97 68 94 97 68
R5 76 92 74 92 88 74

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 9 8 0 3 0
R2 11 18 0 10 5
R3 26 0 4 21 15
R4 17 29 0 26 29
R5 2 18 0 18 14
Min 2 0 0 3 0

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 7 8 0 0 0
R2 9 18 0 7 5
R3 24 0 4 18 15
R4 15 29 0 23 29
R5 0 18 0 15 14
 Routs Transport companies
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 7 8 5 0 0
R2 4 13 0 2 0
R3 24 0 9 18 15
R4 10 24 0 18 24
R5 0 18 5 15 14

R1-T4
R2-T5
R3-T2
R4-T3
R5-T1

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 88 87 79 70 79
R2 87 94 76 73 81
R3 94 68 72 76 83
R4 85 97 68 80 97
R5 76 92 74 78 88

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Min
R1 88 87 79 70 79 70
R2 87 94 76 73 81 73
R3 94 68 72 76 83 68
R4 85 97 68 80 97 68
R5 76 92 74 78 88 74
Routs Transport companies
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Min
R1 18 17 9 0 9 70
R2 14 21 3 0 8 73
R3 26 0 4 8 15 68
R4 17 29 0 12 29 68
R5 2 18 0 4 14 74

min 2 0 0 0 8

Routs Transport companies

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
R1 16 17 9 0 1
R2 12 21 3 0 0
R3 24 0 4 8 7
R4 15 29 0 12 21
R5 0 18 0 4 6
R1-T4
R2-T5
R3-T2
R4-T3
R5-T1