Production of U.S.

crude oil and natural gas plant liquids

U.S. crude oil production U.S. natural gas plant liquids production
AEO2021 side cases AEO2021 side cases
million barrels per day million barrels per day
2020 2020
25 25
history projections history projections

20 20
High Oil and
Gas Supply
15 High Oil Price 15
Reference
Low Oil Price High Oil and
10 Low Oil and 10 Gas Supply
Gas Supply High Oil Price
Reference
5 5 Low Oil Price
Low Oil and
Gas Supply
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 2
U.S. crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production and
consumption
U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption U.S. crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production
AEO2021 economic growth cases AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
million barrels per day million barrels per day

2020 2020
30 30
history projections history projections
High
25 High Oil and Gas
25 Economic
Supply
Growth
20 Reference 20 Reference
Low Economic
15 Growth 15 Low Oil and Gas
Supply
10 10 Reference, crude
oil only
5 5

0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 3

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. crude oil production, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case
million barrels per day million barrels per day million barrels per day

25 2020 25 2020 25 2020

history projections history projections history projections

20 20 20

15 15 15

10 10 10
tight oil

5 5 5
Alaska
Gulf of Mexico
other
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 4
U.S. crude oil levels and cumulative production
Crude oil production Cumulative crude oil production
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case
million barrels per day billion barrels
2020 160
20
history projections
tight oil
16 Wolfcamp 120
Bone Springs/
12 Avalon
Spraberry
80
Eagle Ford
8 Bakken
Niobrara
other tight oil 40
4 Alaska
Gulf of Mexico
0 other 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 5

Onshore crude oil production in the Lower 48 states

Onshore crude oil production in the Lower 48 states by region
AEO2021 Reference case
million barrels per day
2020
6
history projections
Southwest
5

2 Northern Great Plains

Gulf Coast
Rocky Mountains
1 Midcontinent
East
0 West Coast
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 6
Natural gas plant liquids production by region and type
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production by region U.S. natural gas plant liquids production by type
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case
million barrels per day million barrels per day
7 2020 2020
7
history projections history projections
6 6 natural gasoline
East isobutane
5 5 normal butane
4 4 propane
Southwest
3 3

2 2 ethane

1 rest of United 1
States
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 7

Biofuels as a percentage of motor gasoline and diesel

Projected biofuels percentage of gasoline and diesel consumption
AEO2021 oil price cases
percentage

15% 2020
High Oil Price
history projections

Reference
10%
Low Oil Price

5%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 8
U.S. biofuels production by type
Biofuels production by type, AEO2021 high and low price cases
Reference case Low Oil Price case High Oil Price case
million barrels per day million barrels per day million barrels per day
2020 2020 2020
1.8 1.8 1.8
history projections history projections history projections

1.5 1.5 1.5

1.2 1.2 1.2

biodiesel
0.9 0.9 0.9

total ethanol 0.6

0.6 0.6

0.3 0.3 0.3

other biomass
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 9

U.S. refinery utilization

U.S. total crude supply U.S. diesel and residual fuel exports and unfinished
AEO2021 Reference case oils imports, AEO2021 Reference case
million barrels per day million barrels per day
20 2020 3.0 2020
history projections history projections
2.5
15
2.0
diesel and residual fuel
10 1.5
exports
1.0
5
0.5
unfinished oils imports
0 0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 10
U.S. petroleum and other liquids trade
U.S. petroleum and other liquids net exports
AEO2021 supply and price side cases
million barrels per day
2020
15
history projections
10
High Oil Price
5 High Oil and Gas
Supply
0 Reference

-5 Low Oil and Gas

Supply
-10 Low Oil Price

-15
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 11

Ethanol and motor gasoline consumption

Total ethanol consumption Total motor gasoline consumption
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case
million barrels per day million barrels per day
2020 2020
1.4 14
history projections history projections
1.2 12

1.0 10

0.8 8

0.6 6

0.4 4

0.2 2

0.0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 12
Motor gasoline and diesel prices
Retail prices of motor gasoline Retail prices of diesel
AEO2021 oil price cases AEO2021 oil price cases
2020 dollars per gallon 2020 dollars per gallon
2020 $7 2020
$7
history projections history projections
High Oil Price
$6 $6

$5 High Oil Price $5

$4 Reference
$4
Reference
$3 $3 Low Oil Price
Low Oil Price
$2 $2

$1 $1

$0 $0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo 13