ASSIGNMENT 3

POLI 343

STUDENT ID: 10711813

LECTURER: PAUL A. BOAKYE (Ph.D.)

29 YEARS IN THE FOURTH REPUBLIC :

COULD GHANA BECOME A ‘FAILED STATE’ IN THE

NEXT 20-25 YEARS?

ARTHUR FREDERICK

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF GHANA.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE NUMBER

Synopsis 2

Literature Survey 2

Research Questions 6

Theoretical Foundation 7

Methodological Preference 7

Selection of Sample 8

Statement of Need 8

Work Plan 9

Timeline of Research 9

Drawbacks 10

Budget 11

Dissemination 11

Bibliography 12

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 SYNOPSIS

The study is aimed at investigating the possibilities of Ghana attaining a ‘Failed State’

status in the next 20-25 years. The factors that make Ghana a likely candidate of

falling into the category of failed states will be explored and the results analyzed to

draw the link between the current state of affairs of the nation and how the current

affairs will have a massive impact on the nation in the next 20-25 years to come.

Participants will include a focused group composed mainly of experts who would be

interviewed to gain their opinion concerning the study. The research seeks to answer

the question, why Ghana could become a failed state in the next 20-25 years?

SURVEY OF LITERATURE

A Failed State is a state whose political or economic institutions and systems have

become so fragile that it cannot manage its affairs. In a failed state, the government is

unable to enforce law and order, the government is ineffective in raising taxes,

exercises little or no control over its territory, hence there is little provision of public

services by the State or non at all. States may be categorized as Strong when they

perform very well in all vital sectors, Weak when they perform very well in some

areas and fails to fulfill expectations in other areas, Crisis State when the state is

under intense pressure and unable to manage conflicts, and Collapsed when they are

unable to perform in any area of national development at all. (Di John, 2008; Rotberg,

2004)

Why States Fail

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According to several studies ( Gros, 2011; Rotberg, 2004; Zartman, 1995; Di John,

2008) the various factors that causes the failure of State’s include the ballooning of

criminal violence, inadequate provision of political goods, destroyed or deteriorated

infrastructure, the exhibition of defective institutions, flawed educational systems, and

defective medical institutions, corruption reaches its peak, widespread poverty and

economic hardships among others. Somalia the prototype of a failed state in

contemporary times faced all these symptoms before finally attaining the mark of a

failed state. Clearly, without a doubt, the above causes of State failure are exactly the

order of the day in Ghana. After 29 years of constitutional rule, Ghana is battling

corruption, combating criminal violence in its capital city, has widespread poverty and

a flawed educational system among several others. This reveals that the nation Ghana

is on the path to becoming a failed State if appropriate solutions are not put in place.

The Implication Of State Failure

Failed States become the center of attraction for criminal groups and terrorists. Failed

States such as Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia have become one of the

breeding grounds for terrorist groups and a high rate of criminality in the world.

Iqbal and Starr (2008) revealed that State failure results in political instability, civil

wars and international conflicts. Looking at the nations where State Failures have

been recorded, there is either a current or an ongoing anarchy that has destabilized the

nation. Some of the civil wars spread to even neighboring countries in the process.

Ghana Has Trodden The Path Of State Failure Before In The ‘70s

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In the 1970s, Ghana followed a modal path of state failure indicated by Rotberg

(2004) and Clapham (1996) as the second modal path towards state failure. In this

modal, though there was the absence of civil wars, the state was completely unable to

carry out its responsibility of supplying basic services to its inhabitants, the State

failed to generate revenue to pay its officials, the Government was incompetent in

carrying out activities that promote the welfare of its citizens as well as failure to

exercise power over its territories.

Zartman (1995) also reveals that, under the Third Republic of Hilla Liman (1979-81),

the central government completely lost control over the country and was unable to

perform its functions in the capital as corruption replaced the government.

Ghana Is On The Path To State Failure Again

According to Fund For Peace (2020), Ghana lied in a very delicate position. Among

the states that are falling into the Failed State status, Ghana lied in the “Warning

Zone” ( 108th position out of 178 countries) with a score of 64.2 in the Fragile States

Index Annual Report. The findings are centered on 12 essential factors such as

Human Rights and Rule Of Law, Public Services, Economic Decline and Property,

Uneven Economic Development, National Security among others. To me, this report

is a sign that the Ghanaian State is fragile and is therefore on the path to be labeled as

a failed state in the next few years to come in the absence of serious interventions by

the Government.

How To Prevent State Failure

According to Frost (2004), one of the vital ways to prevent State failure is Risk

Assessment. By risk assessment, a nation can easily detect early signs and warnings of

State failure and plan adequately. Risk Assessment should always precede strategic

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planning to tackle a predictive State failure. A State must be able to put together a risk

evaluation and management team to study the indicators of State failure, establish

patterns and provide measures that can prevent that predictable phenomenon.

(Rotberg, 2004; Rao, 2014).

How To Rebuild Failed States

Debt relief according to Eizenstat et al (2007) is a great initiative to rebuild States that

have failed. Developed countries should cancel the debt of Highly Indebted Poor

Countries (HIPC) for them to reform and revive their collapsed economies. Relieving

failed States of their debts can be a great incentive for them to prevent further

outbreaks of uncontrollable debts. The World Bank on this note should issue Grants

instead of loans to these countries for them to recover economically.

Conclusion

Whiles, there has been much research on the problem of failed states, few researchers

have considered Ghana in a predictive way. This research would stand on the

shoulders of already existing researched works but will bridge the gap of why Ghana

could become a failed state which I identify as a vacuum in the existing works.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The main research problem is going to center around the question, is there a

possibility for Ghana to attain the level of a failed state in the next 20-25 years? There

would also be sub-questions such as,

 Upon what conditions could Ghana be labeled as a failed state ?

 What will be the consequences of Ghana as a failed State?

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 Are there any remedial initiatives that can be put in place to salvage the nation

from this predictable phenomenon by the government?

 What should be the main focus of policies in Ghana when the phenomenon of

state failure begin to emerge in Ghana?

THEORETICAL FOUNDATION

So far two giant theories have emerged on the concept of Failed States. The first

approach according to William Zartman (1995) and Robert Rotberg (2004) is that the

State is a service provider. William Zartman a principal authority on failed State

asserts that a state has failed when it can no more provide the services for which it

exists. Robert Rotberg another authority in this field also claims that a State can be

described as a failed state when it no longer provides positive political goods to the

citizens.

According to the second theory, a State has failed when it loses control over its

territory and can no longer manage internal violence. Robert Jackson (1991) and

Stephen Krasner (2004) are the architects behind this approach. The conceptual

framework for my research is going to build from the perspective of the first theory

which asserts that, a State has failed when it can no more supply essential goods to its

inhabitants.

METHODOLOGICAL PREFERENCE

To answer the proposed question, qualitative methods will be the most suitable to

provide an answer to the problem. Literature on related topics is suggestive that,

qualitative methods are suitable (Gros, 2004; Rotberg, 2004; Zartman, 1995;

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Clapham, 1996). The reason being that, the research is going to be a forecast, it will

offer explanations, and be exploratory hence the qualitative approach. Because the

research is exploratory and there is a need for interpretation, the best method I will

employ is the qualitative method.

SELECTION OF SAMPLE

Data for this study is going to be gathered through interviews and/or focused groups.

The sample group comprises of a group of 15 experts known for their several years of

political practice in Ghana. 5 Senior lecturers at the Department of Political Science in

the University of Ghana in the fields of Political Economy, Public Policy,

Comparative Politics, and Political Institutions will be interviewed in person, 8 iconic

Political Analysts will also be interviewed through phone calls and 2 Members of

Parliament from the Ayawaso West Wuogon and Okaikoi North constituencies

respectively will be interviewed via the Zoom Meeting App, as well as a group

discussion comprising of 10 Senior Officials at the Institute Of Economic Affairs

(IEA) will be organized to tap opinion and insights into the study.

WORK PLAN

When participants respond and give their consent to take part in the research, the

researcher will move to their respective offices, homes, schools, via the phone or

internet to conduct an interview based on the research questions at a convenient time

and place agreed by both the respondent and the researcher. Each respondent is going

to have a maximum of 30 minutes to respond to the interview questions and the group

discussion is going to last for an hour and 40 minutes because each contributor will

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have 10 minutes to respond to the same questions. The interviews and discussions will

be recorded and notes will be taken and later transcribed.

An analysis of the responses will be conducted after the interview to draw the

similarities, differences, and connections between the various responses to draw the

conclusion of the research as well as answer my research question.

STATEMENT OF NEED

After returning to constitutional rule in 1992, there were high hopes that Ghana is on

track to be among the wealthiest nations in the world, however, the opposite has

proven to be true. Not only has the nation failed to maximize its potential and has

been unsuccessful in realizing her ambitions but is gradually gearing towards the

status of a ‘failed state’. Even though Ghana has not experienced civil wars and has

not been plagued with political unrest, several critical factor could earn Ghana the title

of a “failed state” if adequate measures are not laid down to tackle the problems to be

discussed in this research study.

The raison d’etre of this research study is to make the reader aware that, Ghana is

sitting on a ‘time bomb’ ready to explode if appropriate measures are not put together

to prevent this predictable phenomenon. By the end of this research, the reader will

not need a soothsayer or prophet to be alerted that there might be dark days ahead of

Ghana if serious measures are not put in place to tackle the challenges to be discussed

in this research. However, this research is not going to be a duplicate of the work of

others but a new area of study worth the attention of policy makers and the citizens of

Ghana at large.

TIMELINE OF RESEARCH

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The study is going to take approximately 4 months of consistent fieldwork. A month

is to be dedicated to interviewing the experts in the Department of Political Science,

University of Ghana. The second month will focus on interviewing the Political

Analysts whiles the third month will focus on interviewing the Members of

Parliament and organizing the group discussion at GIMPA. The last month will then

be used to transcribe the recorded data, conduct critical analysis, draw conclusions

and answer the research question.

DRAWBACKS

One of the greatest limitations to be encountered in this study is that there is no

standard definition for State Failure. There is no agreement among scholars about

how to define a failed state and how to accurately measure State failure. (Call, 2008).

The State Failure Task Force (now Political Instability) is considered the most

accurate predictor of State Failure by using severe internal political crisis. However, it

is not inclined to measuring and analyzing occurrences of moderate weakness. The

aforementioned Fragile States Index by Fund For Peace is also an excellent attempt

that is globally recognized but the attempt is focused basically on the risk of violence,

however, rather than institutional strength. There have been many attempts to define a

failed state and how to measure state weakness but there is no consensus between

scholars on the definition and indices to use in measuring State failure.

Another limitation to be encountered in this research is the absence of body language

in the interviews with Political Analysts. Due to the distance barrier between the

researcher and the respondents, phone calls will be used in the process and the

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researcher will not have access to the body language which plays a key role in

qualitative research.

ESTIMATED BUDGET

Financially, the study is going to cost approximately 1,100 Ghana Cedis. Part of the

said amount is going to be used to provide transportation to the offices of the Senior

Lecturers, buy airtime and mobile data to interview the Political Analysts and

Members of Parliament, and to provide refreshments for the group discussion. Below

is the tabulated form of the estimated expenses in detail.

ITEMS AMOUNT (IN CEDIS)

TRANSPORTATION 300
AIRTIME 50
DATA BUNDLE 50
REFRESHMENTS 300
Digital Voice Recorder 400
TOTAL 1,100

DISSEMINATION

Upon completion of the research, the findings will be communicated through

periodicals such as the The Graphic Mirror and the Legon Observer as well as

engaging in conference presentations. I will also create a blog and upload my

completed work for the masses to be educated through my research.

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Clapham, C.(1996). Africa and the International System: The Politics of State Survival.

Cambridge University Press: UK.

Gros, J.(2011). Failed States in Theoretical, Historical, and Policy Perspectives.

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led_States_in_Theoretical_Historical_and_Policy_Perspectives/links/5514c2840cf260

a7cb2d6417.pdf. Accessed on 6th May 2021.

Zartman, W.(1995). Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of

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https://books.google.com.gh/books?collapsed%20states%20zartman&f=false.

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Patrick, S.(2007). “Failed” States and Global Security: Empirical Questions and

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Eizenstat,S.E., John,E.P , Weinstein, J.M. (2004). Rebuilding Weak States. Foreign

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