KESEJAHTERAAN,

KEADILAN This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC

SOSIAL,DAN
OLIGARKI

Faisal Basri | 23 Desember 2021

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 -15
-10
0
5

-5
10
1976
1977

* Projection.
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 8%

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
7%

1999 -13.1%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
GDP growth, percent

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6%

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5%

-2.1%

2021*
2022*
2023*
2024*
The trend of economic growth continues to slow

4.5%
 The speed of Indonesia's economic recovery is very slow
(recovery speed, percent)

Q3'20 - Q2'20 Q4'20 - Q2'20 Q1'21 - Q2'20 Q2'21 - Q2'20

38
• China's economy has returned to its pre-pandemic track in Q2-2021.
33 • Vietnam's economy has never contracted during the pandemic.
• Economic contraction in Korea is relatively mild, only 2.7% in Q2-2020.
28

23

18

13

-2

y
ep

ia
m

EU

re

ce
a

sia
y

y*
A
d

s
**

ne

l
di
an

K.
pa

lan

US

Ita
s
na

po

an
a
R

ay
ne

In
rm

pi
U.

rk
Ja

in
ai
et

a,

Fr
ga

al
do

ilip
Tu
Ch
Th
re

Ge
Vi

M
Sin
In
Ko

Ph
* Estimates. **The base is Q2-2020 when most countries experience the deepest contraction, except for China which experienced the start of the pandemic earlier so the
countdown base becomes Q1-2020.
Sources:, OECD, Statista, and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Investasi di Indonesia relatif sudah sangat besar,
mencapai puncaknya pada 2015 sebesar 32,8%
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
45

40

35 32.8

30

25

20

15

10

0
60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
China Upper middle income Indonesia India
Lower middle income Vietnam Thailand Russian Federation
Philippines Malaysia Brazil South Africa
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS on December 23, 2021.
 (X) – 2019 ranking
1. United States (1) 156
261
2. China (2) 149
141

FDI inflows, 3. Hong Kong (5)

4. Singapore (3)
74
91
119

114

top 20 host 5. India (8)

6. Luxembourg (25) 15
51
64

62

economies, 7. Germany (7)

8. Ireland (4)
36

33
54

2019 & 2020

81
9. Mexico (14) 29
34
10. Sweden (32) 26

(US$ billions)
10
11. Brazil (6) 25
65
12. Israel (20) 19
25

13. Canada (10) 24

48
14. Australia (12) 20
39
15. UAE (22) 20
18
16. United Kingdom… 20
45
17. Indonesia (19) 19
24
18. France (15) 18
34
19. Viet Nam (24) 16
16
20. Japan (26) 10
15 2020 2019

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2021, p. 5.

 Large investment but small returns
ICOR had been increasing consistently since 2012, surging in 2015

ICOR and GDP growth ICOR and GDP growth by era

6.6 ICOR GDP growth
6.6
6.4 6.4
6.3 6.3
6.2 6.2 6.5
6.0 6.0
5.7 5.8% 5.8%
5.6 5.6%

5.5 5.1
5.0
4.6%
5.2 5.0%
5.0 5.1 5.0
4.9 4.9 4.6
4.5
4.6 4.4
4.1 4.0 4.1

3.9 2018
2.6 Philippines 3.7
3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 !"#"(t−1)
3.4 ICOR = Thailand 4.5
△!%& Malaysia 4.6
2.1% Vietnam 5.2
05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Indonesia 6.4
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Sumber: Kemenkeu, 2020.

ICOR GDP growth (%) 1961-1966 1967-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2019

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

 “K-shaped” recovery?

“K-shaped” recovery

Economic
Before COVID-19 recession Recovery
 Net worth (US$) 2020 2019

1-5 million 150,678 91,932

High 5-10 million 12,403 8,264

net worth 10-50 million 7,616 5,210

individual 50-100 million 626 468

100-500 million 367 295

500+ million 50 46

Over USD1 million 171,740 106,215

Source: Credit Suisse Research Institute, Global Wealth Databook 2021.
 Wealth and its composition

Number of adults with Composition of wealth

net worth >USD1 million

171,740

57.7%
67.3%
106,215

42.3%
32.7%

2020 2019

2019 2020 Financial assets Non-financial assets

Source: Credit Suisse Research Institute, Global Wealth Databook 2021..

 Should be more inclusive

Material Power Index, 2010-2020 Wealth Concentration Ratio, 2020

United States 6.4
MPI: Kekayaan rerata 40 759,420 Brazil 5.3
orang terkaya Indonesia Russia 5.0
(data dari Forbes) dibagi Philippines 4.8
kekayaan rerata pendu-duk India 4.5

Indonesia (PDB per kapita South Africa 4.5

Singapore 3.8
sebagai proxy).
Indonesia 3.8

644,708 Malaysia 3.4

Thailand 3.1
Vietnam 3.1
Cambodia 2.9
China 2.8 Rerata dibagi
570,988 Korea 2.4 median dari
Finland 2.3
kekayaan per kapita
Denmark 2.3
Japan 2.1
orang dewasa.
2010 2015 2020 Iceland 1.5

Sumber: Jeffrey A. Winters, 2021. Sumber: Credit Suisse Research Institute, Global Wealth Databook 2021..
 The world’s most unequal countries

Top 1%, 2019, percent Top 10%, 2019, percent

1. Russia 58.2 1. Russia 82.7

2. Thailand 50.4 2. Thailand 76.6

3. Indonesia 44.6 3. United States 75.9

4. India 42.5 4. Sweden 75.3

5. Chile 37.7 5. India 74.3

6. Sweden 37.4 6. Indonesia 74.1

7. Israel 37.2 7. Turkey 70.3

8. Czech Republic 36.1 8. Netherlands 68.0

9. United States 35.4 9. South Africa 67.5

10. South Africa 34.6 10. Israel 67.2

Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2019.

 The crony-capitalism index
billionaire wealth as a % of GDP, ranked by crony-sector wealth, 2016

Crony sectors Non-crony sectors

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Russia Indonesia’s rank (% of GDP):

Malaysia
Philippines 2007 18th
Singapore 2014 8th (5.2)
Ukraine
Mexico 2016 7th (5.8)
Indonesia 3.8 2.0
Turkey Where the living is easy
India Rent-seeking sectors included in the
Taiwan index
China* • Casinos
Thailand • Coal, palm oil and timber
South Africa
Britain • Defense
Brazil • Deposit-taking banking and investment
United States banking
Argentina • infrastructure and pipelines
France • Oil, gas, chemicals and other energy
Japan • Ports, airports
South Korea • Real estate and construction
Poland Steel, other metals, mining and
Germany •
commodities
*Includes territories. • Utilities and telecoms services
Source: The Economist, Daily chart: Comparing crony capitalism around the world (http://econ.st/24zXocy).
 China 182.4

Korea, Rep. 164.8

Thailand 160.3

Domestic Vietnam
Upper middle… 143.6
147.7

credit to Cambodia
Malaysia
139.9

134.0

private sector, Singapore 132.7

2020
South Africa 107.9

Brazil 70.2
Russian Federation 60.0
India 54.8

Philippines 52.1
Lower middle… 46.9
Bangladesh 45.3

Indonesia 38.7
Myanmar 27.4
 As of October 2021, percent

Tiering of nominal (IDR) Account Nominal

<100 million 98.4 13.0

100 millions - <200 millions 0.7 5.4

Composition
200 millions - <500 millions 0.5 8.5
of deposits
500 millions - <1 billion 0.2 7.4

1 billion - <2 billions 0.1 6.5

2 billions - <5 billions 0.1 8.3

>5 billions 0.0 50.9

Total 100.00 100.00

Source: Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS).
 • Pejabat pusat yang hartanya
naik mencapai 70,3%.
• Sebanyak 58% menteri yang
kekayaannya bertambah lebih
dari Rp 1 miliar dan 26%
menteri kekayaannya
bertambah kurang dari Rp 1
Pejabat pun miliar, hanya 3% melaporkan
kekayaannya turun.
kian tajir • Untuk pejabat daerah: 30%
gubernur dan wakil gubernur
yang melaporkan kekayaannya
bertambah di atas Rp 1 miliar,
40% lainnya melaporkan
kekayaannya bertambah
kurang dari Rp 1 miliar.
• Sumber: KPK.
 19
70

March
19 60.00
76
19 40.10
78
19 33.30
80
19 28.60
81
19 26.90

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..

84
19 21.60
87
19 17.40
90
19 15.10
93
19 13.70
96
19 11.30
97
19 17.47
98
19 24.20
99
20 23.43
00
20 19.14
01
20 18.41
02
20 18.20
03
20 17.42
04
20 16.66
05
20 15.97
06
17.75
Percent of population

20
07
20 16.58
08
20 15.42
09
20 14.15
10
20 13.33
The number of poor people in March 2021: 27.54 million

11
20 12.43
12
20 11.81
13
20 11.41
14
11.11
The percentage of poor people

20
has again reached double digits

15
20 11.18
16
20 10.78
17
20 10.38
18
20 9.74
19
20 9.32
20
20 9.99
21
* 10.14
 But the insecure population is much larger
Indonesia's insecure population compared to wealthier countries

GDP per capita PPP of

wealthier countries when % of insecure population % of current
they reached the level of when it reaches Indonesia's insecure
Indonesia 2019 GDP per capita level 2019 population
South Africa 11,924 (2006) 67.7 56.9
Indonesia 11,812 (2019) 52.8 52.8
Brazil 11,797 (2002) 40.3 19.6
Mexico 14,998 (1990) 39.7 22.7
Turkey 12,547 (1991) 39.2 10.2
Thailand 11,898 (2004) 33.4 6.2
Russian Federation* 12,396 (1998) 31.6 3.7
China 11,917 (2014) 31.5 24.0
Malaysia 11,664 (1992) 30.3 2.9
Iran, Islamic Rep. 11,764 (2004) 15.8 14.0
Argentina 14,145. (1990) 10.3 14.4
Korea, Rep. 12,704 (1990) 1.2 0.7
*In 1990, GDP per capita PPP had reached $21,549 but continued to decline until 1998.
Source: World Bank.
 Indonesia's insecure population when GDP/capita
reaches the level of poorer countries in 2019
The number of insecure people is around 143 million (52.8%), much more than the number of recipients of
the National Health Insurance Contribution Assistance (PBI JKN) in 2020 of 96.8 million (35.8%) and the
number of people below the poverty line in 2019 as many as 25 million (9.3%)
GDP per capita % insecure % of Indonesia’s insecure population when it reaches
(PPP), 2019 population, 2019 the level of GDP per capita (PPP) of poorer countries
Indonesia 11,812 52.8 52.8 (2019)
Vietnam 8,041 22.4 81.9 (2009)
Philippines 8,908 46.9 71.4 (2012)
India 6,700 87.4 85.9 (2005)
Nigeria 5,135 92.0 96.1 (1993)
Pakistan 4,690 76.2 96.3 (1991)
Bangladesh 4,754 84.2 96.3 (1991)
Source: World Bank.
 "Pembangunan besar-besaran era Presiden
Jokowi tidak boleh berhenti atas nama emisi
karbon atau atas nama deforestasi.”
Pembangunan "Menghentikan pembangunan atas nama
ekonomi jadi zero deforestation sama dengan melawan
panglima mandat UUD 1945 untuk values and goals
establishment, membangun sasaran
nasional untuk kesejahteraan rakyat secara
sosial dan ekonomi.”
—Menteri LHK, Siti Nurbaya Bakar
 Non-oil and gas exports January-November 2020-2021
(US$ millions)

Product group HS code 2020 2021 Growth (%) Share (%)

Animal or vegetable fats and oil 15 18,100.4 29,856.8 64.95 15.08
Mineral fuels 27 15,529.3 29,586.4 90.52 14.94
Iron and steel 72 9.657.7 18,622.9 92.83 9.41
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof 85 8,255.7 10,566.2 27.99 5.34
Rubber and articles thereof 40 5,072.7 6,498.0 28.10 3.28
Footwear, gaiters and the like; parts of such articles 64 4,342.6 5,534.0 27.44 2.80
Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones, precious metals 71 7,884.4 5,154.8 -34.62 2.60
Tin and articles thereof 80 1,007.5 2,131.8 111.59 1.08
Residues and waste from the food industries 23 880.6 1,410.6 60.20 0.71
Salt; sulphur; earths & stone; and cement 25 361.4 488.2 35.07 0.25
Total 10 product groups - 71,092.3 109,849.7 54.52 55.49
Others - 68,327.7 88,128.5 28.98 44.51
Total non-oil and gas - 139,420.0 197,978.2 42.00 100.00
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank.
 Harga batu bara mencapai rekor tertinggi
sepanjang sejarah pada Oktober 2021
Coal, Australian (US$/mt)
250
224.51

200

157.48
150

100

50

0
6
11
4
9
2
7
12
5
10
3
8

6
11
4
9
2
7
12
5
10
3
8

6
11
4
9
2
7
12
5
10
3
8

6
11
4
9
2
7
12
5
10
2003-1

2008-1

2013-1

2018-1
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
 Harga tahunan batu bara

Coal, Australian (US$/mt)

160

135
140

127

121
120

100

80

61
55

60

40

20
8

0
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021*

* January-November.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
 1. Perekonomian disusun sebagai usaha bersama
berdasar atas asas kekeluargaan.
2. Cabang-cabang produksi yang penting bagi negara
dan yang menguasai hajat hidup orang banyak
dikuasai oleh negara.
3. Bumi dan air dan kekayaan alam yang terkandung
di dalamnya dikuasai oleh negara dan dipergunakan
UUD 1945: untuk sebesar-besar kemakmuran rakyat.
Pasal 33 4. Perekonomian nasional diselenggarakan berdasar
atas demokrasi ekonomi dengan prinsip
kebersamaan, efisiensi, berkeadilan,
berkelanjutan, berwawasan lingkungan,
kemandirian, serta dengan menjaga keseimbangan
kemajuan dan kesatuan ekonomi nasional.
5. Ketentuan lebih lanjut mengenai pelaksanaan
pasal ini diatur dalam undang-undang.
 Jangan • Nilai ekspor batu bara (kode HS 27) selama
Januari-November 2021: US$29,6 miliar,
mengemis: meningkat tajam sebesar 90,5 persen
dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu.
potensi Perkiraan sampai akhir tahun: US$33 miliar atau
penerimaan sekitar Rp472 triliun (kurs rerata Rp14.313 per
dolar AS)
negara dari • Jika pemerintah mengenakan pajak ekspor
ekspor batu sebesar 25 persen saja, ada tambahan
penerimaan negara sebanyak Rp118 triliun.
bara sangat
• Mengapa pemerintah tidak melirik potensi ini,
besar padahal untuk ekspor CPO dikenakan pajak
ekspor dan pungutan sawit yang pada Agustus
2021 sebesar US$268 per ton. Padahal ada
jutaan petani rakyat terlibat, sedangkan usaha
batu bara dikuasai oleh segelintir pengusaha.
 Sumbangan PDRB menurut pulau
Sasaran RPJM: peran luar Jawa 2019 sebesar 46%, realisasi hanya 41%

2007 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sumatera 22.9 23.10 23.01 22.18 22.02 21.73 21.58 21.32 21.36

Jawa 58.8 58.10 57.39 58.33 58.52 58.37 58.48 59.00 58.75

Bali & Nusa Tenggara 2.7 2.70 2.87 3.07 3.12 3.12 3.05 3.06 2.94

Kalimantan 9.4 9.20 8.76 8.16 7.86 8.24 8.20 8.05 7.94

Sulawesi 4.1 4.50 5.65 5.91 6.04 6.12 6.22 6.33 6.66

Maluku dan Papua 2.1 2.40 2.32 2.35 2.44 2.42 2.47 2.24 2.35
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Keunikan Kondisi
geografis Indonesia
• 17.508 pulau.
• Sekitar dua pertiga wilayah
Indonesia berupa lautan
• Garis pantai terpanjang kedua
di dunia sepanjang 54.716 km.
• Kita menggunakan sebutan
Tanah Air, bukan motherland
atau homeland.
• Lautlah yang mempersatukan
pulau-pulau, sehingga
mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik.
 Komposisi sektor transportasi dan pergudangan

2010 2015 2019 2020 2021*

Angkutan rel 0.84 1.20 1.44 1.12 1.06
Angkutan darat 55.18 48.61 44.34 55.26 57.67
Angkutan laut 8.96 6.77 5.75 6.94 7.08
Angkutan sungai, danau dan penyeberangan 3.36 2.39 1.97 2.24 2.12
Angkutan udara 15.69 24.90 29.26 15.21 13.33
Pergudangan & jasa penunjang angkutan; pos dan kurir 15.97 16.14 17.41 19.02 18.75
Jumlah 100 100 100 100 100
* January-June.
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 Indonesia: Indeks demokrasi dan komponennya

8.5 40

8.0
45
7.5

7.0 50

6.5
55
6.0

5.5 60

5.0
65
4.5

4.0 70

2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Overall score Electoral process and pluralism Functioning of government
Political participation Political culture Civil liberties
Rank-RHS

Sumber: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

 Economic
freedom and
well-being

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/map
ped-economic-freedom-around-the-
world/
 Corruption perception index dropped in 2000
100 the cleanest (LHS); 1.0: bottom rank (RHS)
46 0.0

40 0.1
41 Indonesia's ranking is divided by the 38
37 37 37
number of countries surveyed 36 0.2
36 34
32 32
30 0.3
31
27 28 28
27 26 0.47 0.4
26 24
22 23
0.5
21 19 20 19 19 19 20
17 17 0.62 0.6
0.57
16
0.7
0.68
11 0.8
1.00

6 0.9

1 1.0
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
Score-LHS Ranking-RHS
Source: Transparency International.
 The Third Pillar: Raghuram Rajan
Community q State is the political governance
structure of a country. In this context,
it will refer to the central government.
In addition to the executive branch,
the state will also include the
legislature and the judiciary.
q Markets will include all private
economic structures facilitating
production and exchange in the
economy.
q Community is a social group of any
size whose members reside in a
specific locality, share government,
and often have a common cultural and
State Market historical heritage.
 The narrow corridor

Society: non-elites (similar but more general

than civil society)

+ Power of society: norms against political

Corporation Poland hierarchy and elites and bottom-up
mobilization; institutionalization is key.

State: state institutions and elites that control

them.

Power of the state: both the ability of the

elites and the institutions they control to
dominate society and capabilities and capacity
of state institutions.
Liberty: the state of being free within society
from oppressive restrictions imposed by
authority on one's way of life, behavior, or
political views.
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Daron Acemoglu dan James A. Robinson, The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, London: Penguin Press.
Democracy Does Cause
Growth
• Acemoglu, et al. (2019)
• Democracy increases GDP
per capita
• Democracy increases
investment/GDP ratio and
schooling
• Democracy decreases infant
mortality
 Demokrasi dan pendapatan per kapita
10
SWE NOR
CAN FIN
NZL ISL DNK
9 TWN AUS IRL
URY ESP GBR DEU CHE LUX
CHL EST
8 CRI MUS JPN FRA AUT
PRT USA
CPV BWA MYS ITA
ZAF BRA GRC MLT BEL
7 TLS IND JAM COL TTO LTU
TUN SUR ARG SVK POL
BGR
GHA NAM PER HUN
Democracy index

LSO
ECU
IDN DOM
6 BGD ALB MEX ROU SGP
SLV UKR MDA THA MNE
MWI MDG SEN PNG
MAR HKG
LBR HND BTN FJI GEO AVERAGE
TZA NPL BOL
5 UGA KEN ARM
SLE ZMB BIH
GMB BEN KGZ GTM TUR
HTI PAK DZA
4 NGA CIV LBN
MLI MRT KWT
BFA NIC AGO JOR IRQ
MOZ COG KHM GAB
NER ETH RUS QAT
3 RWA COM MMR SWZ KAZ OMN
TGO ZWE CUB EGY VEN
GNB CMR DJI ARE
SDN VNM BLR BHR
BDI ERI IRN CHN
2 UZB SAU
YEM TJK GNQ LBY
LAO TKM
SYR TCD
CAF
1 PRK
COD

0
700 7,000 70,000
Log GNI per capita PPP

Sumber: Indeks demokrasi bersumber dari Democracy Index 2020 terbitan EIU; pendapatan per kapita mengacu pada Gross National Income
berdasarkan paritas daya beli (purchasing power parity) tahun 2019 yang tertera dalam World Development Indicators Bank Dunia.
 1. Denmark 85.2
2. Norway 83.6
3. Finland 83.6
4. Sweden 83.5
5. Iceland 82.7
11. Germany 78.8
12. France 76.7
15. Japan 76.1
20. Singapore 74.6
21. United Kingdom 74.4

Social mobility
25. Korea, Rep. 71.4
27. United States 70.4
39. Russian Federation 64.7

index, 2019 43. Malaysia

45. China
50. Vietnam
62.0
61.5
57.8
55. Thailand 55.4
58. Mexico 52.6
60. Brazil 52.1
61. Philippines 51.7
64. Turkey 51.3
67. Indonesia 49.3
72. Lao PDR 43.8
76. India 42.7
77. South Africa 41.4
82. Côte d'Ivoire 34.5

Source: World Economic Forum.

 Social mobility and inequality
60
RUS
55

50 THA

45 IDN
IND TUR
Inequality – Top 1%

40
CHL ISR SWE
USA CZE
35 ZAF MEX
COL SGP NOR
30 CHN KOR DEU
NLD DNK
IRL FIN
POL CAN
25 GBR AUT CHE
GRC HUN ESP
ROU ITA AUS FRA
20 PRT NZL
JPN BEL
15
SVK
10
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Social mobility index

Source: World Economic Forum, and Credit Suisse, Global Wealth Databook.
 China 182.4

Domestic
Korea, Rep. 164.8
Thailand 160.3

credit to Vietnam
Upper middle… 143.6
147.7

private sector Cambodia

Malaysia
139.9

134.0

(percent of Singapore
South Africa
132.7

GDP), 2020
107.9
Brazil 70.2
Russian… 60.0
India 54.8
Philippines 52.1

Lower middle… 46.9

Bangladesh 45.3
Indonesia 38.7

Myanmar 27.4

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

 (1) Perekonomian disusun sebagai usaha bersama berdasar
atas asas kekeluargaan.

Sesuai dengan (2) Cabang-cabang produksi yang penting bagi

negara dan yang menguasai hajat hidup orang
amanat banyak dikuasai oleh negara.
Konstitusi: (3) Bumi dan air dan kekayaan alam yang
terkandung di dalamnya dikuasai oleh negara
UUD 1945 dan dipergunakan untuk sebesar-besar
kemakmuran rakyat.
Pasal 33
(4) Perekonomian nasional diselenggarakan
berdasar atas demokrasi ekonomi dengan
prinsip kebersamaan, efisiensi, berkeadilan,
berkelanjutan, berwawasan lingkungan,
kemandirian, serta dengan menjaga keseimbangan
kemajuan dan kesatuan ekonomi nasional.
(5) Ketentuan lebih lanjut mengenai pelaksanaan pasal ini
diatur dalam undang-undang.
 2,000 1,927 1,944

Rp triliun
1,833
1,800

1,600 1,496
1,455

1,400
1,265
1,154
1,200

Komposisi
1,000

800

belanja negara
813
742 758 763 770 770
600 710

400

200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021* 2022**

Belanja Pemerintah Pusat Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa

* Outlook.
** APBN
Source: Ministry of Finance.
 Central government expenditure by type
(Rp trillion)

Growth Growth
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021* 2014-19 2014-21
Personnel 244 281 305 313 347 376 381 421 54% 73%
Material 177 233 260 292 348 334 422 363 89% 105%
Interest payments 133 156 183 217 258 276 314 373 108% 180%
Capital 147 215 170 209 184 178 189 247 21% 68%
Subsidies 392 186 174 166 217 202 196 175 -48% -55%
-Energy 342 119 107 98 154 137 109 110 -60% -68%
-Non-energy 50 67 67 69 63 65 87 65 30% 30%
Social assistance 98 97 50 55 84 113 203 161 15% 64%
Others 13 15 12 13 17 17 126 215 31% 1,554%
Total 1,204 1,183 1,154 1,265 1,455 1,496 1,831 1,955 24% 62%
Memo:
Primary balance -93 -142 -126 -124 -11 -73 -642 -633 22% -581%
* Buget (APBN)
Source: Ministry of Finance.
 Youth unemployment in Indonesia is relatively high

Indonesia, age group 2019

18.03% Cambodia 0.4%
16.31% Myanmar 1.5%
Lao PDR 1.7%
Thailand 4.2%
Vietnam 6.6%
Philippines 6.7%
Mexico 7.2%
Hong Kong 8.6%
Korea, Rep. 9.8%
4.57%
China 11.0%
3.14%
Singapore 11.5%
1.07% 1.29% Malaysia 11.8%
Indonesia 13.4%
15-24 25-59 60+ Brunei Darussalam 21.7%
India 23.0%
February 2020 February 2021 Brazil 27.5%

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Source: World Bank.

Landasan
• Undang-Undang No. 39 Tahun 2014
perundang- tentang Perkebunan
undangan: • PP Perkebunan
awal • UU No. 11/2020 (Omnibus Law)
• PP OL
kehancuran
• Permenperin No. 23/2021
industri gula
nasional
 Pasal 74 ayat (1): Setiap unit Pengolahan Hasil
Perkebunan tertentu yang berbahan baku impor
wajib membangun kebun dalam jangka waktu
paling lambat 3 (tiga) tahun setelah unit usaha
pengolahannya beroperasi.
Undang- Pasal 74 ayat (2): Ketentuan mengenai jenis
Undang Pengolahan Hasil Perkebunan tertentu
sebagaimana dimaksud dalam Pasal 74 ayat (1)
No. 39 diatur dengan Peraturan Pemerintah.

Tahun 2014 Penjelasan Pasal 74 ayat (1): Hasil Perkebunan

tertentu yang berbahan baku impor antara lain
gula tebu.
 Pasal 30
(1) Setiap unit pengolahan hasil Perkebunan tertentu yang berbahan
baku impor wajib membangun kebun paling lambat 3 (tiga) tahun
terhitung sejak unit pengolahan hasil Perkebunan tertentu
beroperasi.
(2) Unit pengolahan hasil Perkebunan tertentu sebagaimana dimaksud
pada ayat (1) merupakan unit pengolahan gula tebu berbahan baku
PP No. 26/2021 impor berupa gula kristal mentah yang berasal dari tebu.

tentang (3) Unit pengolahan gula tebu sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (2)
wajib membangun kebun tebu yang terintegrasi dengan unit
Penyelenggaraan pengolahan.
(4) Terintegrasi sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (3) dapat berada:
Bidang Pertanian a. pada satu hamparan antara unit pengolahan gula tebu dengan
kebun tebu; atau
b. dalam hamparan terpisah antara unit pengolahan gula tebu
dengan kebun tebu.

Penjelasan Pasal 30 ayat (2): Yang dimaksud dengan "unit pengolahan

gula tebu berbahan baku impor" dalam ketentuan ini tidak termasuk unit
pengolahan gula kristal rafinasi.
 § Pasal 6
• Ayat (1) Perusahaan Industri gula kristal rafinasi
Peraturan hanya dapat memproduksi Gula Kristal Rafinasi
(Refined Sugar).
Menteri • Ayat (2) Perusahaan Industri sebagaimana
dimaksud pada ayat (1) hanya dapat
Perindustrian memperdagangkan Gula Kristal Rafinasi (Refined
Sugar) hasil produksinya kepada Industri
No. 3 Tahun Pengguna sebagai Bahan Baku dan/atau bahan
2021 Pasal 6 penolong Industri.
§ Pasal 7: Sebaliknya, dalam Pasal ini
dan Pasal 7 menyatakan: “Perusahaan Industri gula
berbasis tebu hanya dapat memproduksi
Gula Kristal Putih (Plantation White Sugar).
 Senarai pabrik gula rafinasi: tiga kelompok usaha
menguasai 80,3% kapasitas produksi nasional
CR-4 = 96,2%
Kapasitas
Nama Perusahaan Lokasi Pemilik Produksi/ Hari (Ton)
PT Angels Products Serang, Banten Tommy Winata 1.000
PT Jawamanis Rafinasi Cilegon, Banten Martua Sitorus (Wilmar Group) 2.000
PT Sentra Usahatama Jaya Cilegon, Banten Kurniadi (Bank Indeks Group) 2.000
PT Permata Dunia Sukses Utama Cilegon, Banten Edy Kusuma (Teluk Intan Group) 1.800
PT Duta Sugar International Serang, Banten Martua Sitorus (Wilmar Group) 2.000
PT Berkah Manis Makmur Serang, Banten Edy Kusuma (Teluk Intan Group) 2.000
PT Dharmapala Usaha Jaya Cilacap, Jawa Tengah Olam Group Singapura 700
PT Sugar Labinta Lampung Selatan, Lampung Ali Sanjaya 2.000
PT Makassar Tene Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan Edy Kusuma (Teluk Intan Group) 1.800
PT Andalan Furnindo Bekasi, Jawa Barat Kurniadi (Bank Indeks Group) 2.000
PT Medan Sugar Industry Deli Serdang, Sumatera Utara Kurniadi (Bank Indeks Group) 1.500
 Conflict of interests di inti pusaran kekuasaan

• Yang menetapkan kebijakan

atau yang mengkoordinasikan
kebijakan adalah Kementerian
Koordinator Bidang
Kemaritiman dan Investasi.
• Petinggi Kemenko Marinves
pula yang menjajaki kerja
sama dengan perusahaan luar
negeri untuk memproduksi
https://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20211118/257/1467562/bangun- sepeda motor listrik di
ekosistem-motor-listrik-gojek-dan-perusahaan-luhut-rogoh-rp17-t
Indonesia.
 § Awalnya adalah subsidi untuk minyak
Menyelesaikan tanah yang terus menggelembung dan
masalah menggerogoti APBN
dengan § Subsidi minyak tanah digantikan dengan
menimbulkan elpiji melon 3 kg. Lambat laun subsidi
masalah- membengkak seperti subsidi minyak
tanah. Timbul tambahan masalah karena
masalah baru sebagian besar elpiji diimpor.
§ Masalah subsidi dan impor elpiji 3 kg
diatasi dengan semakin banyak distorsi:
• DME
• Gas kota
• Tabung listrik
Atas nama EBT: 1. Proyek batu bara menjadi Dimethyl Ether (DME)
antara PT Indika Energy Tbk dan APCI
Megaprojects
dengan Air
Products and 2. Proyek gas alam menjadi amonia biru antara PT
Butonas Petrochemical Indonesia dan APCI
Chemicals Inc
(APCI) senilai
3. Proyek batu bara menjadi Dimethyl Ether (DME)
US$15 miliar antara PT Batulicin Enam Sembilan dan APCI

4. Proyek gasifikasi batu bara untuk produksi

metanol antara PT Bukit Asam dan APCI
 Distribution of provinces
by level of fiscal autonomy

Degree of autonomy 2016 2017 2018 2019

Very low (0-25%) 8 10 10 11

Low (>25-50%) 19 16 16 15

Medium (>50-75%) 7 8 8 8

High (>75%) 0 1 0 0

Total 34 34 34 34
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 2019, trillion rupiah

State revenue: 1,958.6

central,
provincial, and
district/municipal
governments

168.4 127.1

Pendapatan Negara Pendapatan Asli Daerah Pendapatan Asli Daerah

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (Provinsi) (Kabupaten/Kota)
 Bagi hasil perpajakan

Dana Bagi Hasil Pajak

Pajak Penghasilan
Pajak Bumi dan
(PPh Pasal 21, PPh Pasal Cukai Hasil Tembakau
Bangunan + BPHTB
25, dan Pasal 29)

Pusat: 10% (dibagikan kepada K/K: Pusat: 80%

65% merata dan 35% insentif) Pusat: 98%
Provinsi: 8% Provinsi: 0,6%
Provinsi: 16,2% Kabupaten/kota: 12%
K/K: 64.8% (K/K terdaftar 8,4%; KK penghasil: 0,8%
lainnya 3,6%) KK lainnya: 0,6%
Ongkos pungut: 8%
 Pusat Provinsi K/K Penghasil KK lainnya
Kehutanan
IIUPH 20 16 64
PSDH 20 16 32 32
Dana Bagi Dana Reboisasi
Minerba
60 40

Hasil Sumber Iuran Tetap (land rent)

- darat dan laut < 4 Mil 20 16 64
Daya Alam - 4 Mil < laut < 12 Mil
Iuran Produksi (Royalti)
20 80

(SDA) - darat dan laut < 4 Mil

- 4 Mil < laut < 12 Mil
20
20
16
26
32 32
54
Perikanan 20 80
Minyak Bumi
- darat dan laut < 4 Mil 84.5 3.1 6.2 6.2
- 4 Mil < laut < 12 Mil 84.5 5.17 10.33
Gas Bumi
- darat dan laut < 4 Mil 69.5 6.1 12.2 12.2
- 4 Mil < laut < 12 Mil 69.5 10.17 20.33
Panas Bumi 20 16 32 32
 Komposisi penerimaan daerah (provinsi)
Jenis pendapatan 2016 2017 2018 2019
A. Pendapatan Asli Daerah 48.33 46.16 47.30 46.03
1. Pajak daerah 40.89 38.89 40.55 39.23
2. Retribusi daerah 0.68 0.54 0.47 0.51
3. Hasil BUMD & kekayaan 1.15 1.07 1.09 1.24
4. Lai-lain yang sah 5.61 5.66 5.19 5.05

B. Dana Perimbangan 41.27 46.15 45.38 46.46

1. Bagi hasil pajak 8.05 8.07 7.35 7.55
2. Bagi hasil bukan pajak/SDA 3.08 2.29 3.12 3.36
3. Dana Alokasi Umum 13.98 17.24 16.87 15.98
4. Dana Alokasi Khusus 16.16 18.55 18.04 19.57

C. Lain-lain penerimaan yang sah 10.40 7.69 7.32 7.51

Jumlah 100 100 100 100

 Komposisi penerimaan
pemerintah kabupaten/kota

KABUPATEN KOTA (miliar rupiah) 2018 2019 2019 (%)

PAD 114.345 127.105 15

Dana perimbangan 512.995 540.366 65

Lain-lain 148.396 159.742 19

Jumlah 775.736 827.213 100

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.
 Porsi PAD dalam pendapatan daerah
Pendapatan Asli Daerah Pendapatan Daerah
(triliun rupiah) (triliun rupiah) % PAD
DKI Jakarta 50.6 74.8 68%
Jawa Barat 19.8 34.9 57%
Kalimantan Timur 5.5 10.5 52%
Riau 3.6 9.1 40%
Kepulauan Riau 1.3 3.6 35%
Bengkulu 1.2 3.4 35%
Nusa Tenggara Barat 1.7 5.2 32%
Kalimantan Tengah 1.6 5.1 31%
Nusa Tenggara Timur 1.1 5.3 21%
Sulawesi Barat 0.4 2.1 18%
Aceh 2.5 15.5 16%
Papua 0.9 14.0 7%
Papua Barat 0.4 8.5 5%
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.
 Profile of business units based on scale, 2019
Dominated by micro enterprises

Number of Assets (Rp) Non-oil

Establishment Sales (Rp): Number of Invest- and gas
Large Workers GDP ment exports
5,637 >10B
(mil.) (Rp tril.) (Rp tril.) (Rp tril.)
(0.01%) >50B

Large 3.8 6,252 1,744 1,828

Medium (3,1%) (39.5%) (40.0%) (84.4)
65,465 >500M-10B
(0.10%) >2,5B-50B
Medium 3.8 2,159 1,306 252
(3,1%) (13.6%) (29.9%) (11.7%)

798,679
Small
>50M-500M Small 5.9 1,509 1,019 56
(1.22%) >300M-2,5B (4,8%) (9.5%) (23.4%) (2.6%)

Micro 109.8 5,913 294 30

Micro ≤500M (89,0%) (37.4) (6.8%) (1.4%)
64,601,352
(98.67%) ≤300M
Total 123.4 15,833 4,363 2,167
Source: Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs.
 Transformation from
“pyramid shape” to “diamond shape”

Large
Large Large

Medium
SmallSmall
& &
Medium
Medium
Small

Micro
Micro
Micro Micro
 Patron-client relationship

Patron

Sub-patron Sub-patron Sub-patron

Patron
Client Client Client

Client Client Client

Client Client Client

Client Client Client

Komposisi Partai pendukung pemerintah
471 kursi (82%)
Partai di luar pemerintah
104 kursi (18%)
kursi di PDI-P Demokrat

DPR
128 (22.3%) 54 (9.4%)

Golkar PKS
85 (14.8%) 50 (8.7%)
Jumlah anggota Gerindra
DPR: 575 78 (13.6%) • Mekanisme atau fungsi
checks and balances praktis
Nasdem
59 (10.3%) tidak berjalan.
PKB
58 (10.1%) • Di tengah pandemi COVID-19,
DPR memberikan keleluasaan
PAN
44 (7.6%) kepada pemerintah untuk
melakukan perubahan atau
PPP
19 (3.3%) relokasi anggaran.
 • Tidak memiliki ideologi. Hanya sebatas
asas dan hampir semua sama.
• Tidak ada perbedaan signifikan
Karakteristik antarpartai dalam hal kebijakan.
• Kecenderungan ke tengah: kiri-tengah
partai (central-left) dan kanan-tengah (central-
right).
• Sangat sentralistik dan paternalistik:
authority knows best.
 § Berasal dari kata Yunani, oligarkhia (oligos: few; arkho: to rule or to
command).
§ Oligarchy:
• the rule of the few; government by the few; a small group of
people having control of a country or organization;
• is a form of government where political power effectively rests
with a small, elite segment of society (whether distinguished
by wealth, family or military prowess).

Oligarchy § Oligarchy” means government of and by a few at the top, who

exercise power for their own benefit. Even a system that calls itself
a democracy can become an oligarchy if power becomes
concentrated in the hands of a few very wealthy people—a
corporate and financial elite. Their power and wealth increase over
time as they make laws that favor themselves, manipulate financial
markets to their advantage, and create or exploit economic
monopolies that put even more wealth into their pockets.
(https://prospect.org/economy/oligarchy-mean/)
§ Actors: oligarchs
 • Oligarchy is a power structure where a small
group of people, often a family, is given
governmental control. This group typically has
several distinguishing characteristics among
them, including their wealth, political, religious,
or military ties, or nobility. Oligarchies in which a
family rules results in power being passed down
from generation to generation.
Other • While oligarchies have a reputation for being
definition tyrannical and oppressive, many governments
around the world use some form of oligarchy
successfully. This includes appointing
representatives to determine national policy,
which can be seen in the United States. Oligarchy
becomes tyrannical and/or oppressive when
there is a limitation in the separation of powers
and when the rule of law is violated.
Source: worldpopulationreview.com
Potential for governance problems: pre-crisis
HIGH

GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
POTENTIAL FOR

Philippines

LOW
LOW HIGH
(CONCENTRATED) (FRAGMENTED)

DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER

Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.
Potential for governance problems: post-crisis
HIGH

GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS
Malaysia
POTENTIAL FOR

Indonesia

Philippines
Thailand
LOW
LOW HIGH
(CONCENTRATED) (FRAGMENTED)

DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER

Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.
 Thank you

• Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
• Twitter: @FaisalBasri
• Blog: faisalbasri.com