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Peter Mock, Stephan A. Schmid
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts,
Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany, peter.mock@dlr.de
Abstract
A method for assessing the potential and costs of various technologies for CO2 emission
reduction of passenger cars, using a newly built computer model, is presented. A variety of
vehicle technologies, each with different attributes regarding CO2 emissions and costs, is
simulated for the supply side, as well a variety of different synthetic customer groups for the
demand side within the model. An econometric based selection process calculates the number
of each type of new vehicle sold in any year of the simulation. Hence, deriving future market
shares of vehicle technologies and overall CO2 emissions is possible.
The detailed technology database used for calculations includes conventional vehicle propulsion
technologies as well as innovative vehicle concepts (battery electric vehicles, extended range
electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles). Cost degression effects for new technologies are
incorporated using learning curves, with costs depending on the cumulative number of vehicles
sold. Different types of fuels and influence of crude oil price on fuel prices are taken into
account, as well as different taxation systems.
Using the model, different scenarios for future development of CO2 emissions of the new vehicle
fleet as well as the vehicle stock are evaluated for the time period 2009-2030.
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 1
2 Technology Database selection of potential individual technical
measures to reduce energy consumption of
Basis for all calculations using VECTOR21 is
the vehicle is given below, resulting in five
an extensive database on vehicle
fuel economy packages with effects on
technologies and their effects with regard
specific energy consumption ranging from -8
to energy consumption and costs. A broad
to -40 %. The most advanced vehicle variant,
range of potential future combinations of
without consideration of hybridization,
vehicle propulsion and energy storage types
features an energy consumption of 1.59
is covered by the database:
MJ/km.
- conventional gasoline and gasoline
hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles Fuel Econ.
Packages
Energy
Cons.
Production
Cost
Retail
Price
- conventional diesel and diesel HEV Baseline Vehicle 2,65 MJ/km 9.337 € 15.000 €
- extended range electric vehicles (EREV) Weight reduction: package 1 (mild) = 1,5% veh. weight (20 kg)
Weight reduction: package 2 (medium) = 3,5% veh. weight (50 kg)
X X
X
-1,0%
-2,0%
120 €
300 €
193 €
482 €
Weight reduction: package 3 (strong) = 9,0% veh. weight (120 kg) X -5,0% 720 € 1.157 €
- battery electric vehicles (BEV) Fuel-Economy Packages
- fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV) G_FE#01
G_FE#02
X
X
-8,0%
-17,0%
300 €
870 €
482 €
1.398 €
G_FE#03 X -24,0% 1.490 € 2.394 €
G_FE#04
G_FE#05
X
X
-34,0%
-40,0%
2.645 €
3.615 €
4.249 €
5.807 €
Vehicle energy consumption Best available vehicle (medium size gasoline, no hybrid) X 1,59 MJ/km 12.952 € 20.807 €
For each type of vehicle system and size Figure 1: Individual technical measures and fuel
economy packages (medium size gasoline vehicle)
category (small, medium and large), specific
energy consumption of a baseline variant is
estimated, using data from in-house All fuel economy packages are treated as
simulations [1] and literature [2]. Due to optional add-ons to a baseline vehicle in the
reflecting real-world driving conditions, model. Therefore, the model automatically
values tend to be higher than in New generates a range of vehicle variants, each
European Driving Cycle (NEDC). equipped with a different set of fuel economy
In addition to baseline energy consumption packages, representing the supply side of a
a number of potential measures for virtual new vehicle market.
reducing specific energy consumption is
identified. These include e.g. direct injection
for gasoline vehicles, downsizing and turbo Vehicle production costs and retail price
charging, variable valve control and Manufacturing costs for gasoline, diesel and
reduction of vehicle curb weight. For each CNG vehicles are estimated based on sales
individual technical measure the effect on prices of currently available passenger car
specific energy consumption of the baseline variants. In order to derive overall production
vehicle is estimated using detailed data from costs for other vehicle types, individual costs
various literature sources (e.g. [3]). for non-necessary technical parts are
Energy consumption saving potentials of deducted and costs for supplementary
individual measures cannot be added up. necessary parts, according to literature data
Therefore, for each type of vehicle system (e.g. [2],[3]), are added. For example, for HEV
and size category, several fuel economy vehicles costs for a standard ICE alternator
packages are defined. These packages are and starter are credited, while costs for a
combining a set of individual technical battery, an electric motor and several other
measures and are indicating an overall system components are added.
influence on energy consumption of the Furthermore, for each technical measure to
baseline vehicle. reduce energy consumption previously
Figure 1 illustrates a database excerpt for a identified, production costs are estimated and
medium size gasoline vehicle. Energy summarized in order to define overall costs of
consumption of the baseline vehicle is 2.65 available fuel economy packages. Figure 1
million joule per kilometer (MJ/km). A illustrates the process of costs definition for
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 2
the example of a medium sized gasoline doubling of cumulative number of units
vehicle. It becomes obvious that ambitious produced.
fuel economy packages come at high
investment costs, e.g. more than 3.500 € 1,500
Bosch, 2008 Average 88 % learning curve
for package #05 with an energy
-1
1,250
For conversion of production costs in retail 750 Argonne, 2000
0
added tax (VAT) is added on top. 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000
90 % Minimum
application of improved materials for 90 % Maximum
Tsuchiya, (worst)
electrodes and conducting salts (learning-
100 Tsuchiya, 2004
by-searching), optimization of production DTI, 2003
Carlson, 2005
DOE target 2010
learning curve with a rate of approx. 88 %
Produced number of FC vehicles (cumulative)
(figure 2), i.e. manufacturing costs would be Figure 3: Production cost estimate for fuel cell stacks for
reduced by 100 - 88 = 12 % for each platinum market price 20,000 $/kg [9, 10, 11, 12]
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 3
3 Scenario model hydrogen and electricity, it is possible to
define a separate fuel tax and VAT. Similarly,
Using VECTOR21, data on vehicle energy
raw material price developments may also be
consumption as well as costs is combined
taken into account. E.g. it is possible to
with relevant boundary conditions,
connect platinum price with the overall price
including energy prices and taxation, in
for a fuel cell stack in order to achieve a more
order to model customer purchase decision
dynamic and realistic modeling.
and to determine profound scenarios on
future market shares of vehicle technologies
For vehicle technologies which require
and their effect on CO2. The model is
installation of a novel infrastructure for
divided into two major parts: vehicle
vehicle refuelling and maintenance services,
manufacturer behaviour (supply side) and
the investment and time necessary is reflected
customer behaviour (demand side).
by restricting the technology to more
innovative and therefore less demanding
3.1 Supply side
customer types at first. Following a time delay
Similar to reality, a broad range of vehicle of approx. 5 years, the respectively next
variants with individual energy consumption adopter group is allowed to purchase the
and retail price is offered to customers in affected vehicle variants, assuming that
each year of the analysis by combining infrastructure density would be sufficient by
baseline vehicles with previously identified then [13].
fuel economy packages and incorporating
the results on vehicle energy consumption 3.2 Demand side
from chapter 2.
Research indicates that vehicle purchase
decision involves a high cognitive effort with
For innovative vehicle technologies with a
vehicle size, safety and price ranking at top
learning curve rate used to describe future
priority of most important criteria to
development of production costs, the
customers. Environmental issues are also
cumulative number of units sold in previous
often considered important, however at
years is used by the model to derive
almost no willingness to pay an additional
manufacturing costs in the current year. In
charge [14].
the beginning of production of a new
technology, it is necessary for the
Therefore, for modeling customer purchase
manufacturer to subsidy these vehicle
decision, a three-step approach is
variants (see e.g. first generations of Toyota
implemented:
Prius) in order to attract potential customers
and to build up an increasing number of
sales for lowering production costs • Step 1: Reduce the number of available
according to learning curve theory. With vehicle variants by choosing a size
increasing units produced, manufacturer category and filtering for general
subsidies are automatically reduced by the compulsory requirements.
model, finally leading to the standard mark- • Step 2: Within remaining variants choose
up rate applied to all conventional the ones with lowest total cost of
technologies. ownership (TCO).
• Step 3: Finally, choose the vehicle variant
For modeling the supply side for fuel and with lowest WTW CO2 emissions.
electricity, sales prices may be directly
predefined by the user or alternatively are Step 1 is based on the assumption that
calculated according to crude oil price customers generally select an appropriate
development, using calculation factors vehicle size category based on their everyday
previously derived from an analysis of needs, as well as a vehicle variant which
historical correlations of crude oil and fuel satisfies basic requirements, e.g. regarding a
prices. For each fuel type, as well as for certain minimum driving range. Nevertheless,
it is evident that this decision often is made
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 4
on a non-rational basis, e.g. when buying a vehicle size
category
adopter
type
annual mileage
category
vehicle excessively large due to prestige
new vehicle market innovator 1,000 km/a
reasons. Therefore, for step one market
early adopter 2,000 km/a
shares of vehicle size categories, as well as
small early majority …
general compulsory requirements to be
satisfied by the vehicles considered, are to medium late majority 59,000 km/a
be predefined by the user and are not large laggards 60,000 km/a
modeled implicitly. 3 x 5 x 60
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 5
100%
historical data 'small' hydrogen in transport is stepwise introduced
diesel proportion new passenger vehicles Germany
20%
every gram of CO2 exceeding the target level.
10%
The maximum willingness to pay more for a
0%
low-CO2 vehicle is set at 20 % for the
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
adopter group of the “innovators” and
Figure 5: Model results vs. real historical consequently lower for the following adopter
developments for the proportion of diesel passenger groups (0 % for laggards).
cars in Germany The number of new vehicles is kept constant
at today’s level of approx. 3.1 million
passenger cars, with an increasing share of
small and large vehicles at the expense of a
4 Modeling market prospects decreasing share of medium size vehicles (see
and environmental impacts table 6 for a summary of assumptions).
For assessing future market prospects and Scenario 2 is set up to reflect stronger
environmental impacts of electric vehicles in governmental intervention in view of
consideration of concurrency with impending climate change. Electricity for
conventional propulsion technologies, two transportation now is generated solely on the
scenarios for the German passenger car basis of renewable sources, at higher prices
market are analyzed using VECTOR21. than in scenario 1. Hydrogen is produced
using electricity, accounting for efficiency loss
4.1 Key assumptions due to electrolysis process and distribution.
Scenario 1 is defined as a business-as-usual The price for hydrogen is assumed to be
scenario with only minor changes compared similar to electricity, due to non-applicable
to nowadays situation. Crude oil price, and grid utilization charges. The proportion of
therefore prices for conventional fuels, bio-fuels is higher then in scenario 1 and the
increases moderately. The proportion of bio- new vehicle CO2 emission target values and
fuels increases to 15 % in 2030. Electricity is penalty levels are stricter. (s. table 1).
generated according to the German
national power station mix, with a 4.2 Results – new vehicle fleet
moderately increasing share of renewable Figure 6 shows the results of the two
sources by 2030. Hydrogen is produced scenarios for the new vehicle market in
from natural gas at first, and from electricity Germany between 2010 and 2030.
later on. A new tax for electricity and
Table 1: Summary of scenario assumptions
scenario 1 scenario 2
2009 2030 2009 2030
crude oil price 54 [€/bbl] 65 [€/bbl] 54 [€/bbl] 65 [€/bbl]
proportion of bio-fuels 0-8 % 15 % 0-8 % 25 %
electricity – CO2 emission 600 [g/kWh] 550 [g/kWh] 21 [g/kWh] 20 [g/kWh]
electricity – consumer price 0.18 [€/kWh] 0.35 [€/kWh] 0.21 [€/kWh] 0.37 [€/kWh]
hydrogen – source natural gas electrolysis electrolysis
hydrogen – CO2 emission 350 [g/kWh] 650 [g/kWh] 25 [g/kWh] 24 [g/kWh]
hydrogen – consumer price 0.13 [€/kWh] 0.35 [€/kWh] 0.21 [€/kWh] 0.37 [€/kWh]
CO2 – new vehicle fleet target --- 113 [g/km] --- 76 [g/km]
CO2 – penalty for exceeding --- 95 [€/(g/km)] --- 120 [€/(g/km)]
market share small / medium /
large 25 / 55 / 20 % 30 / 45 / 25 % 25 / 55 / 20 % 30 / 45 / 25 %
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 6
100%
scenario 1 scenario 2
included in the analysis for the small vehicle
size category, a fact which supports the
small
50%
selection of FCHEV for customers with high
0%
100% annual driving ranges who are not willing to
medium
buy BEV.
50%
0%
100% For the medium size vehicle category today’s
market is divided almost equally into gasoline
large
50%
and diesel vehicles. According to calculations,
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
by 2015 G-HEV would enter the market
Gasoline (G) G-HEV Diesel (D) D-HEV CNG CNG-HEV G-EREV BEV FCHEV significantly, as CO2 target values are
Figure 6: Market shares new vehicle market – introduced. Additionally, D-HEV would
differentiated by size categories penetrate the market. Nevertheless, by 2030
in total the proportion of diesel vehicles
For the small vehicle size category gasoline would reduce in both scenarios to approx. 15
cars (G) dominate the market nowadays. % in scenario 1 and almost 0 % in scenario
According to calculations, in both scenarios 2. A reason for the decreasing diesel
gasoline hybrid (G-HEV) variants would proportion is seen primarily in higher
enter the market in large numbers between technical potential for improvement for
2015 and 2020, as CO2 target values are gasoline vehicles at similar costs. CNG
tightening and production costs for HEV are vehicles would achieve a significant market
decreasing. Especially in scenario 2 diesel (D) share of approx. 20 % in scenario 1, but
and CNG vehicles would be successful entering only temporarily in scenario 2 until
during a short period of time between 2015 being displaced by electric vehicles. In
and 2020, as CO2 target values are scenario 1, electric vehicles are penalized due
tightening and alternatives are not yet to their relatively high WTW CO2 emissions,
competitive. Starting in 2015 BEV would as electricity and hydrogen would be
enter the market in significant numbers, produced using fossil energy sources. BEV
consequently further decreasing production would achieve market shares of approx. 15
costs due to learning curve effects and % by 2030, EREV would enter only
therefore increasingly displacing temporarily until a tax for electricity in
conventional technologies. A maximum transport would be introduced starting in
market share of 50 % was set for BEV to 2018, and FCHEV would leave the market as
reflect existing customer concerns regarding soon as subsidies would be stopped. In
the driving range of the vehicles. FCHEV contrast, in scenario 2, electric vehicles would
would enter the market for a short period achieve significantly higher market shares by
of time in scenario 1, only as long as these 2030 (BEV 35 %, EREV 20 %, FCHEV 45 %).
vehicles are subsidized by governmental Crucial for this development are low CO2
funds. emissions due to the usage of renewable
energy sources for production of electricity
In contrast, in scenario 2, FCHEV would and hydrogen as well as strict CO2 target
penetrate the market in the long run and values, increasing the price of conventional
achieve market shares as high as 40 % by technologies with higher TTW emissions due
2030. The remarkable success of BEV and to penalty payments.
FCHEV in scenario 2 is due to strict CO2
regulations which enforce vehicle In the large vehicle size category the
technologies with low TTW emissions, and proportion of diesel vehicles would remain at
furthermore due to electricity and hydrogen approx. 30 % until 2020, but would decrease
being produced from renewable sources, significantly afterwards. CNG vehicles would
making BEV and FCHEV attractive from a enter the market only temporarily in scenario
customer point of view during vehicle 2 until being displaced by electric vehicles,
purchase decision process. A EREV was not but penetrate the market (approx. 15 %) in
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 7
the long run in scenario 1. EREV would be innovative technologies have to be applied.
successful in both scenarios starting in With increasing production volumes for new
2020, with market shares of approx. 70 % / vehicle technologies, and therefore cost
85 % by 2030. Similar to the small and degression effects, TCO tend to decrease
medium vehicle size categories, FCHEV again.
would enter the market only temporarily in
scenario 1, while in scenario 2 achieving a 100 %
162 162 well-to-tank
market share of approx. 15 % by 2030. tank-to-wheel
124 125
112
Figure 7 summarizes the results for the 88 75
50 % 92
individual vehicle size categories. Scenario 2
is more dominated by electric vehicles and
42 17
especially FCHEV, whereas the focus in 22 17 13 23 31 22 10 4 2 3
scenario 1 is more on G-HEV, D-HEV and
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CNG-HEV.
scenario 1 scenario 2
scenario 1 scenario 2
100%
Figure 8: CO2 emissions new vehicle fleet [g/km]
50%
From a manufacturer’s point of view extra
costs would apply temporarily, as new
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 technologies, e.g. BEV and FCHEV, would
Gasoline (G) G-HEV Diesel (D) D-HEV CNG CNG-HEV G-EREV BEV FCHEV have to be subsidized at the beginning.
Figure 7: Market shares new vehicle market – Manufacturer’s profit would be reduced by
sum of all size categories approx. 5 % in 2012 (the first year of
introduction of FCHEV) compared to 2009 in
Figure 8 shows the development of the scenario 1 and approx. 8 % in scenario 2.
average CO2 emissions of the new vehicle However, in the long run profits would tend
fleet for both scenarios. In scenario 1 it to be higher in scenario 2, as it is assumed for
would be possible to reduce average TTW the analysis that with increasing production
emissions from approx. 162 g/km today to volumes mark-ups for new technologies
as low as 75 g/km by 2030. Due to an would adjust to the values for conventional
increasing share of electric vehicles and the technologies, while at the same time turnover
use of electricity and hydrogen from fossil would be higher for a high proportion of
sources, well-to-tank (WTT) emissions would electric vehicles as these would be more
increase from approx. 22 g/km in 2010 to expensive, even by 2030. Turnover in scenario
approx. 31 g/km by 2030. In scenario 2, 1 would be approx. 77 billion € by 2030,
with a higher proportion of electric vehicles compared to 83 billion € in scenario 2 (60
and at the same time renewable sources for billion € in 2009).
electricity and hydrogen production, CO2
emissions would reduce from approx. 162 4.3 Results – vehicle stock
g/km to approx. 17 g/km (TTW) and from Using information on today’s vehicle stock
approx. 22 g/km to approx. 3 g/km (WTT). and data on average surviving rates of new
vehicles, market shares for the future vehicle
Costs from a customer point of view would stock are calculated (Figure 9). According to
increase in both scenarios. TCO would calculations, approx. 650,000 / 1 million
increase from approx. 25,000 € in 2010 to (scenario 1 / 2) BEV would be on the roads in
approx. 29,000 € in 2025 and then Germany by 2020 and 4.5 million / 8 million
decrease to approx. 28,000 € by 2030. This by 2030, additionally approx. 5 million FCHEV
is due to increasing prices for fuels as well scenario 2.
as higher average sales prices for vehicles,
as CO2 penalties have to be paid or costly
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 8
scenario 1 scenario 2
100% 5 Conclusion
Calculation of two scenarios, each with a
50% different set of input variables, using the
VECTOR21 model, led to the conclusion that
0%
remarkable changes of the passenger vehicle
2010
Gasoline (G)
2015
G-HEV
2020 2025
Diesel (D)
2030 2010
D-HEV CNG
2015
CNG-HEV
2020
G-EREV
2025
BEV
2030
FCHEV fleet appear feasible for the time horizon up
to the year 2030. Assuming a moderately
Figure 9: Market shares vehicle stock
increasing crude oil price, electricity and
hydrogen from fossil energy sources as well
TTW CO2 emissions of the passenger vehicle as an average CO2 target value of 113 g/km
stock would decrease from approx. 109 for the German new vehicle fleet in 2030,
million tons today to approx. 61 / 40 million electric vehicles (BEV and EREV) could achieve
tons by 2030 (Figure 10). WTT emissions market shares of approx. 40 % by 2030 in
would decrease from approx. 19 to approx. scenario 1. Under different constraints, with a
12 / 2 million tons. stricter CO2 target value of 75 g/km and
higher penalty fines as well as electricity and
100 %
well-to-tank
hydrogen being produced from renewable
109 109
tank-to-wheel sources, electric vehicles could achieve market
89 89 shares as high as 95 %, including a 35 %
77
68 74 proportion of FCHEV in scenario 2.
50 % 61
57 Regarding CO2 emissions both scenarios
40 indicate significant potential for reduction.
WTW emissions of the vehicle stock could
19 13 10 10 12 19 12 8 4 2
decrease by approx. 40 % in scenario 1 by
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 9
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PHEV’09 Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 10