Emkay

India Equity Research | Chemical

October 7, 2021
©
Sector Update

The Chemical Express Your success is our success

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Chemical, Petrochemical Prices, Margins and

Trends September 2021 and Q3CY21

China power disruptions constrain chemicals supplies; China Soda Ash Prices – Chart of the Month

prices of commodity chemicals rising Demand-led price rise, at life-time high

550
China tightened its duel control policy on energy in mid-Sep’21, curtailing the power supply 500 517.18
in some provinces that had exceeded their power consumption targets. Among them, 450
China’s largest chemical manufacturing province Jiangsu, which accounts for one-third of 400

(US$/ MT)
total chemical production in China, was given a red alert, signifying a severe situation. This 350
event will constrain supplies from China, consequently affecting the demand-supply 300
250
equation. Chemical prices have been trending higher due to supply issues and logistic
200
bottlenecks. Now, with this new event, prices of commodity chemicals have started 150
spiralling. On the supply front, the near-term outlook looks grim, which may keep the pricing 100
environment upbeat.

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20

Sep-20
Mar-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-21
May-20

May-21
 Chinese soda ash prices at all-time highs (up ~25% MoM/~40% QoQ) – Positive for Tata
Chemical, DCW, and GHCL
Source: Bloomberg
 ~6% MoM rise in Chinese caustic soda prices (up ~25% QoQ) – Lower availability from
China to benefit domestic caustic prices; positive for Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani
Organochem, GACL, TGV SRAAC, and DCW
 ~11% MoM rise in Caprolactam-Benzene spreads (up ~17% QoQ) – Positive for GSFC This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following
person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:
 Production of Chinese caustic soda, soda ash, and ethylene was the highest ever in
Aug’21 in the past four years. Rohit Nagraj
rohit.nagraj@emkayglobal.com
 Incessant rise in Chinese Glyphosate prices; currently at a new peak of ~CNY56,000/MT +91 22 6624 2490

Ayush Chaturvedi
 ADD imposition on Rubber Chemicals PX-13 and MOR from EU, China PR – Positive for ayush.chaturvedi@emkayglobal.com
NOCIL +91 22 6612 1327

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Earnings at Risk
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Index

 Chemical,Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices and Trends – Sep’21

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins

 Chemical Price Trends – Graphs

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Trends – Graphs

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins – Graphs

 Currency Movement and Trends – Graphs

 China Monthly Production Trend

 India Import Volumes (MT)

 Chemicals, Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices

 China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Prices

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins

 Chemical, Petrochemicals, Crude Prices, Margins & Trends – Q3CY2021

 Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 2
Chemical, Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices and Trends – Sep’21

% MoM
Chemical Name Latest Prev. % WoW Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ Indian Manufacturers
Sep-21
Naphtha (USD/MT) 716 714 0.3 693 657 5.5 680 607 11.9

Soda Ash (USD/MT) 517 477 8.3 447 368 21.5 383 275 39.3 Tata Chemicals, GHCL, DCW
Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani, GACL, TGV
Caustic Soda (USD/MT) 449 449 0.0 435 413 5.4 412 331 24.5
SRAAC, DCW
Caprolactam (USD/MT) 2,529 2,521 0.3 2,449 2,227 10.0 2,314 2,081 11.2 GSFC

MEG (USD/MT) 800 735 8.8 718 678 6.0 694 646 7.4 RIL, IOC, India Glycols

Propylene NWE (USD/MT) 1,316 1,400 -6.0 1,399 1,461 -4.2 1,433 1,355 5.8

Phthalic Anhydride (USD/MT) 925 905 2.2 892 851 4.8 855 823 3.9 IGPL, Thirumalai Chemicals

Acrylonitrile (USD/MT) 2,343 2,320 1.0 2,330 2,298 1.4 2,297 2,231 3.0 RIL

Phenol (USD/MT) 1,497 1,492 0.3 1,495 1,409 6.1 1,454 1,428 1.9 Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

TDI (USD/MT) 2,126 2,119 0.3 2,153 2,206 -2.4 2,184 2,202 -0.8 GNFC

PP (USD/MT) 2,169 2,191 -1.0 2,201 2,226 -1.1 2,227 2,253 -1.2 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

LDPE (USD/MT) 2,551 2,619 -2.6 2,622 2,693 -2.6 2,692 2,740 -1.8 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

Fluorspar (USD/MT) 2,600 2,550 2.0 2,560 2,490 2.8 2,521 2,583 -2.4

HDPE (USD/MT) 2,058 2,103 -2.1 2,108 2,205 -4.4 2,193 2,280 -3.8 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

LLDPE (USD/MT) 2,140 2,191 -2.3 2,195 2,298 -4.5 2,289 2,395 -4.4 RIL, IOC, HMEL, HPL, GAIL, OPAL, MRPL

ABS (USD/MT) 2,420 2,450 -1.2 2,436 2,353 3.5 2,393 2,534 -5.6 INEOS Styrolution, Bhansali Engineering

Propylene Korea (USD/MT) 980 990 -1.0 984 983 0.2 982 1,045 -6.0

Ethylene (USD/MT) 1,130 1,165 -3.0 1,140 1,199 -4.9 1,141 1,230 -7.3

GNFC, Ashok Alco-Chem, Laxmi Organics, Jubilant

Ethyl Acetate (USD/MT) 1,548 1,624 -4.7 1,492 1,323 12.8 1,401 1,511 -7.3
Ingrevia
PVC (USD/MT) 1,600 1,450 10.3 1,440 1,315 9.5 1,348 1,482 -9.1 DCM Shriram, DCW

Vinyl Acetate Monomer (CNY/MT) 12,269 12,269 0.0 11,571 10,930 5.9 11,571 13,164 -12.1

Acetic Acid (USD/MT) 1,412 1,438 -1.8 1,172 918 27.7 1,009 1,158 -12.8 GNFC, Ashok Alco-Chem

Acetone (USD/MT) 985 1,013 -2.8 1,005 944 6.5 913 1,076 -15.2 Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Benzene (USD/MT) 935 905 3.3 951 1,020 -6.8 1,003 1,221 -17.9

MDI (USD/MT) 2,865 2,964 -3.3 2,865 2,964 -3.3 2,829 3,145 -10.0 BASF

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), latest prices for week ended 01 Oct 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 3
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends
% MoM
Chemical Name (Unit) Latest Prev. % WoW Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ Indian Manufacturers
Sep-21
Dharamsi Morarji Chemicals, Amal, Dye
Sulfuric Acid (CNY/MT) 1,031 1,008 2.3 1,019 866 17.7 876 400 118.9
manufacturers for captive consumption
Grasim, DCM Shriram, Meghmani, GACL,
Caustic Soda (CNY/MT) 804 674 19.3 739 679 8.7 693 339 104.2 Andhra Sugars, TGV SRAAC, DCW, Chemfab
Alkalies, Punjab Alkalies and Chemicals
Compound Fertilizer (CNY/MT) 3,206 3,200 0.2 3,203 3,147 1.8 3,149 1,705 84.7

Butadiene Rubber (CNY/MT) 13,170 13,624 -3.3 13,397 14,111 -5.1 13,880 7,919 75.3

Glyphosate, 95% (CNY/MT) 58,600 53,375 9.8 55,988 51,512 8.7 52,708 30,481 72.9

Urea (CNY/MT) 2,650 2,591 2.3 2,620 2,697 -2.8 2,713 1,709 58.7

Methanol (CNY/MT) 2,904 2,619 10.9 2,762 2,496 10.6 2,578 1,680 53.5

Benzene (CNY/MT) 8,681 7,917 9.6 8,299 7,529 10.2 7,982 5,226 52.7

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), China Government

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 4
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/Margins
% MoM Indian
Chemical Name Latest Prev. % WoW Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 % QoQ
Sep-21 Manufacturers
Caprolactam-Benzene ((USD/MT)) 1334 1253 1205 1055 1071 909 GSFC
6.5 14.2 17.9
Deepak Nitrite,
Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/ Propylene (USD/MT) 689 700 713 617 637 688
-1.7 15.6 -7.4 HOCL
PP-Propylene (USD/MT) 852 791 7.8 801 765 4.7 776 898 -13.5
Ethylene-Naphtha (USD/MT) 414 451 -8.3 447 541 -17.5 513 623 -17.7
PVC-VCM (USD/MT) 295 230 245 210 223 272 DCW
28.3 16.7 -17.8
PVC-EDC (USD/MT) 705 695 1.4 659 603 9.4 622 777 -20.0
Note: Q3 related to Q3CY2021 (Jul-Sep qtr), latest prices for week ended 01 Oct 2021

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 5
China Chemical Trends
Sharp ~28% MoM increase in Acetic Acid prices

Caustic Soda SE Asia China Acetic Acid spot

800 1,600
1,412
1,400
700
1,200
600

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

1,000
449
500
800
400 600

300 400

200
200

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China Acetone spot China Acrylonitrile spot

1,900 2,900
2,343
1,650 2,600
985
2,300
1,400
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT) 2,000

1,150
1,700
900
1,400
650 1,100

400 800
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 6
..continued
~13% MoM increase in Chinese Ethyl Acetate prices

China Caprolactam spot China Ethyl Acetate spot

3,200 1,800
1,548

2,800 2,529 1,600

2,400 1,400

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

2,000 1,200

1,600 1,000

1,200 800

800 600

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China Fluorspar 97% China MDI spot

4,000 6,200

3,500 5,200

2,600 4,200 2867

(CNY/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
3,000
3,200
2,500
2,200

2,000
1,200

1,500 200
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 7
…continued
~22% MoM/~8% WoW increase in Soda Ash prices

China Phenol spot China Soda Ash spot

2,100 550
1,497 517.18
1,850 475

1,600 400

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

1,350 325

1,100 250

850 175

600 100
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-20

Jun-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Jun-21

Aug-21
Sep-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21

Oct-21
Feb-20

May-20

Feb-21

May-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

China TDI spot Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil CIF Rotterdam
7,000 2,200

6,000 1,900

5,000 1,600
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
4,000 1,300
2,126
3,000 1,000
1,535

2,000 700

1,000 400
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 8
Petrochemical Price Trends
~7% MoM decline in Benzene prices; ~6% MoM increase in Naphtha price

Benzene FOB Rotterdam Toluene FOB Rotterdam

1,950 950

1,700 795
800
1,450 935
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
1,200 650

950
500
700
350
450

200 200
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Naphtha CNF Japan Ethylene Spot CIF NWE

800 1,600
716
700 1,400 1,130

600 1,200
(US$/ MT)

500 (US$/ MT) 1,000

400 800

300 600

200 400

100 200
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 9
..continued
~12% MoM increase in Ethylene (Korea) prices/ ~4% MoM decline in Propylene (Korea) prices

Ethylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene Spot CIF NWE

1,400 1,750
1,090
1,200 1,550

1,000 1,350
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
800 1,150
1,316
600 950

400 750

200 550
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Propylene FOB Korea Spot HDPE Injection Europe

1,250 2,500

980
2,250
1,100

2,000
(US$/ MT)

950 (US$/ MT)

1,750 2,058
800
1,500

650
1,250

500 1,000
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 10
…continued
~10%/19% MoM/WoW increase in EDC prices

LDPE Europe LLDPE Butene Europe

3,200 2,800

2,850 2,500

2,551 2,200
2,500

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

2,150 1,900
2,140
1,800 1,600

1,300
1,450

1,000
1,100

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

PP Injection Europe EDC CFR SEA

2,600 1,050

900 895
2,300

750
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
2,000
600
2,169
1,700
450

1,400
300

1,100 150
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 11
…continued
~10%/8% MoM increase in PVC/VCM prices

VCM CFR SEA PVC CFR SEA

1,600 1,850

1,400
1,600 1,600

1,200
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
1,350
1,000
1,100
800 1,305
850
600

400 600
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

MEG CFR South East Asia Price PTA CFR SEA

1,200 1,200

1,050 1,050

900 800 900 745

(US$/ MT)

750 (US$/ MT) 750

600 600

450 450

300 300
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 12
…continued
~5% MoM increase in Phthalic Anhydride

PX FOB Rotterdam ABS CFR SEA

1,400 3,000
2,800
1,200
2,600
2,400
1,000

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

2,200
800 2,000 2,420

1,800
600 885
1,600
1,400
400
1,200
200 1,000
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Phthalic Anhydride CFR FEA ACN CFR SEA

1,200 3,300

1,100 2,220
2,800
1,000 925

(US$/ MT)
(US$/ MT)

900 2,300

800 1,800
700
1,300
600

500 800
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 13
…continued
~6% MoM increase in Vinyl Acetate prices; ~5% MoM increase in Brent prices

China Vinyl acetate monomer Brent (US$/ bbl)

14,500 100.0

79.55
85.0
12,500

70.0
(CNY/ MT)

10,500

(US$/bbl)
55.0
8,500 12,269
40.0

6,500
25.0

4,500 10.0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

WTI (US$/ bbl) Dubai-Oman (US$/ bbl)

95.0
85.0
75.88
80.0
70.0

65.0
(US$/bbl)
55.0
(US$/bbl)

75.92
50.0
40.0

25.0 35.0

10.0 20.0 Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 14
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Price Trends
~11% MoM increase in Methanol prices; ~9% MoM increase in Glyphosate and Caustic Soda prices
China Caustic Soda (Liquid 32%) (CNY/ MT) Compound Fertilizer (of Pot. Sulfate) (CNY/ MT)
1,150 3,450

1,000 3,200
3,206
804

(CNY/ MT)
(CNY/ MT)

850 2,950

700 2,700

550 2,450

400 2,200
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

Sep-19

Sep-20
Mar-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Mar-19

Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Mar-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Mar-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20

Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government, data till 20th Sep’21 Source: China Government , data till 20th Sep’21

Methanol (CNY/ MT) Pesticide (Glyphosate, 95%) (CNY/ MT)

3,600 70,000

3,200
2,904 60,000

2,800 58,600
(CNY/ MT)

(CNY/ MT)
50,000
2,400
40,000
2,000

1,600 30,000

1,200 20,000
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government , data till 20th Sep’21 Source: China Government , data till 20th Sep’21

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 15
..continued
~18% MoM increase in Sulfuric Acid prices

Sulfuric Acid (98%) (CNY/ MT) Urea (Small Granule)(CNY/ MT)

1,100
2,850
1,008
900
2,600

(CNY/ MT)
(CNY/ MT)

700
2,350

500 2,650
2,100

300 1,850

100 1,600
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18

Sep-20
Mar-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Mar-19

Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20

Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-18

Sep-18
Mar-21

Mar-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19

Sep-20
Mar-19

Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20

Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government , data till 20th Sep’21 Source: China Government, data till 20th Sep’21

Benzene (Industrial Grade) (CNY/ MT) Butadiene Rubber (BR9000) (CNY/ MT)
10,000 16,000

8,681 14,500
8,500

13,000

(CNY/ MT)
(CNY/ MT)

7,000
11,500
5,500
10,000 13,170

4,000
8,500

2,500 7,000
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: China Government, data till 20th Sep’21 Source: China Government, data 20th Sep’21

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 16
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins
~16% MoM increase in Phenol/Acetone-Benz/Propylene spreads; ~18% MoM decline in Ethylene-Naphtha spreads

Caprolactam-Benzene Phenol/ Acetone- Benzene/ Propylene

1,850 1,500

1,250
1,600

1,000
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
1,350
750
1,334 689
1,100
500

850
250

600 0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

PP-Propylene Ethylene-Naphtha
1,050 900

750
900

600
(US$/ MT)
852
(US$/ MT)

750 414
450
600
300

450 150

300 0 Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
Earnings at Risk
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 17
…continued
~17% MoM increase in PVC-VCM spreads

PVC-EDC PVC-VCM
1,000 350

900 300
800
250 295
(US$/ MT)

(US$/ MT)
700
200
600 705
150
500

400 100

300 50
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 18
Currency Movement and Trends

Dollar Index USD/INR

105.0 60.0

100.0 65.0

94.04
95.0 70.0

90.0 75.0
74.13

85.0 80.0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

USD/CNY EUR/INR
6.0 65.0

70.0
6.3

75.0
6.5 85.83
6.44 80.0
6.8
85.0

7.0
90.0

7.3 95.0
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-17

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-17

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Sep-21
Mar-17

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
May-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19

Mar-20
May-20

Mar-21
May-21

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 19
China Monthly Production Trend
Chinese caustic soda and soda ash production during 2021 (cumulative till Aug’21) trending the highest compared to previous years

Phosphate Ore (in '000) Caustic Soda (in '000)

18000 3480

15000 3230

12000 2980
(MT)

(MT)
9000 2730

6000 2480

3000 2230
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government, *data till Aug 2021 Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021

Sulfuric Acid (in '000) Soda Ash (in '000)

9000 2800

2600
8000

2400
(MT)
(MT)

7000
2200

6000
2000

5000 1800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021 Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 20
…continued
Chinese Ethylene and Syn. Rubber production highest ever for 2021 vs. previous years; Fertilizer production continues to decline
Ethylene (in '000) Chemical Fertilizers (in '000)
2750 6750

2400 6000

2050 5250
(MT)

(MT)
1700 4500

1350 3750

1000 3000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021 Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021

Pesticides (in '000) Synthetic Rubber (in '000)

400 800

700
325

600
250 (MT)
(MT)

500

175
400

100 300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021 Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 21
…continued
Chinese Synthetic Fiber production has been the highest ever in 2021 vs. previous years

Synthetic Detergents (in '000) Synthetic Fiber (in '000)

1400 6250

1250
5500
1100
4750

(MT)
950
(MT)

4000
800

650 3250

500 2500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021 Source: China Government , *data till Aug 2021

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 22
India Import Volumes
Caustic Soda imports declining YoY in past few months

Acetic Acid Caustic Soda

150000 50000

120000 40000

90000 30000

(MT)
(MT)

60000 20000

30000 10000

0 0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India

Phenol Soda Ash

37500 125000

30000 100000

(MT)
(MT)

22500 75000

15000 50000

7500
25000

0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 23
Chemical, Petrochemicals, and Crude Prices

Chemical Name (Unit) Latest Prev. Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Sep-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019

Caustic Soda SE Asia (US$/ MT) 449 449 435 413 412 331 282 357 0.0 5.4 24.5 (21.1) (29.0)

China Acetic Acid spot (US$/MT) 1,412 1,438 1,172 918 1,009 1,158 385 438 (1.8) 27.7 (12.8) (12.1) (36.0)

China Acetone spot (US$/ MT) 985 1,013 1,005 944 913 1,076 1,038 568 (2.8) 6.5 (15.2) 82.7 (28.7)

China Acrylonitrile spot (US$/MT) 2,343 2,320 2,330 2,298 2,297 2,231 1,301 1,786 1.0 1.4 3.0 (27.2) (25.1)

China Caprolactam spot (US$/MT) 2,529 2,521 2,449 2,227 2,314 2,081 1,442 1,812 0.3 10.0 11.2 (20.4) (25.9)

China Ethyl Acetate spot (US$/MT) 1,548 1,624 1,492 1,323 1,401 1,511 874 846 (4.7) 12.8 (7.3) 3.4 (22.1)

China Fluorspar 97% (CNY/MT) 2,600 2,550 2,560 2,490 2,521 2,583 2,750 3,069 2.0 2.8 (2.4) (10.4) 4.6

China MDI spot (US$/MT)* 2,865 2,964 2,865 2,964 2,829 3,145 2,066 (3.3) (3.3) (10.0)

China Phenol spot (US$/ MT) 1,497 1,492 1,495 1,409 1,454 1,428 927 1,189 0.3 6.1 1.9 (22.0) (24.5)

China Soda Ash spot (US$/ MT) 517 477 447 368 383 275 195 8.3 21.5 39.3

China TDI spot (US$/ MT) 2,126 2,119 2,153 2,206 2,184 2,202 1,789 1,936 0.3 (2.4) (0.8) (7.6) (55.7)
Malaysia/ Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil CIF
1,535 1,500 1,434 1,331 1,344 1,480 815 657 2.3 7.7 (9.2) 24.1 (28.9)
Rotterdam (US$/ MT)

Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 1st Oct 2021 Note: * Monthly prices for latest and previous month

Earnings at Risk
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 24
…continued

Petrochemicals (Unit) Latest Prev. Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Sep-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Benzene FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 935 905 951 1,020 1,003 1,221 497 695 3.3 (6.8) (17.9) (28.5) (16.4)
Toluene FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 795 780 773 758 778 775 441 716 1.9 2.0 0.4 (38.4) (5.6)
Naphtha CNF Japan (US$/ MT) 716 714 693 657 680 607 382 526 0.3 5.5 11.9 (27.3) (14.5)
Ethylene Spot CIF NWE (US$/ MT) 1,130 1,165 1,140 1,199 1,141 1,230 681 956 (3.0) (4.9) (7.3) (28.8) (17.4)
Ethylene FOB Korea Spot (US$/ MT) 1,090 1,090 1,052 943 991 1,011 728 849 0.0 11.6 (2.1) (14.2) (30.0)
Propylene Spot CIF NWE (US$/ MT) 1,316 1,400 1,399 1,461 1,433 1,355 789 960 (6.0) (4.2) 5.8 (17.8) (18.9)
Propylene FOB Korea Spot (US$/ MT) 980 990 984 983 982 1,045 796 881 (1.0) 0.2 (6.0) (9.6) (15.0)
HDPE Injection Europe (US$/ MT) 2,058 2,103 2,108 2,205 2,193 2,280 1,293 1,440 (2.1) (4.4) (3.8) (10.2) (10.5)
LDPE Europe (US$/ MT) 2,551 2,619 2,622 2,693 2,692 2,740 1,379 1,491 (2.6) (2.6) (1.8) (7.5) (11.9)
LLDPE Butene Europe (US$/ MT) 2,140 2,191 2,195 2,298 2,289 2,395 1,274 1,403 (2.3) (4.5) (4.4) (9.2) (13.1)
PP Injection Europe (US$/ MT) 2,169 2,191 2,201 2,226 2,227 2,253 1,304 1,480 (1.0) (1.1) (1.2) (11.9) (11.1)

EDC CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 895 755 781 713 730 705 314 349 18.5 9.6 3.5 (10.0) 12.7
VCM CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 1,305 1,220 1,195 1,105 1,127 1,211 740 733 7.0 8.1 (6.9) 1.0 (2.5)
PVC CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 1,600 1,450 1,440 1,315 1,348 1,482 886 860 10.3 9.5 (9.1) 3.0 (6.6)
MEG Cfr South East Asia Price (US$/ MT) 800 735 718 678 694 646 471 579 8.8 6.0 7.4 (18.5) (36.9)
PTA CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 725 745 729 748 741 702 474 743 (2.7) (2.5) 5.6 (36.2) (14.6)
OX China spot (US$/ MT) 978 974 970 941 946 897 663 887 0.4 3.0 5.5 (25.3) (11.8)
PX FOB Rotterdam (US$/ MT) 895 920 896 900 897 868 503 806 (2.7) (0.4) 3.4 (37.6) (17.8)
ABS CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 2,420 2,450 2,436 2,353 2,393 2,534 1,524 1,469 (1.2) 3.5 (5.6) 3.8 (23.0)
Phthalic Anhydride China Spot (US$/ MT) 925 905 892 851 855 823 721 877 2.2 4.8 3.9 (17.8) (7.6)
ACN CFR SEA (US$/ MT) 2,220 2,220 2,216 2,155 2,161 2,521 1,189 1,660 0.0 2.8 (14.3) (28.4) (16.6)
China Vinyl acetate monomer (CNY/ MT) 12,269 12,269 11,571 10,930 11,571 13,164 5,648 6,672 0.0 5.9 (12.1) (15.3) (19.3)

Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 1st Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 25
…continued
Crude (Unit) Latest Prev. Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Sep-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Brent (US$/ bbl) 79.6 77.7 75.4 71.7 74.1 68.7 42.3 64.1 2.4 5.2 7.8 (34.0) (9.8)
WTI (US$/ bbl) 75.9 74.1 72.2 69.7 71.8 66.2 39.6 57.0 2.4 3.5 8.5 (30.6) (12.1)
Dubai-Oman (US$/ bbl) 75.9 74.5 72.9 70.4 72.3 66.5 42.5 63.6 1.9 3.6 8.7 (33.1) (8.0)

Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 01st Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 26
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals Prices
China Chemicals and Petrochemicals (Unit) Latest Prev. Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Sep-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
China Caustic Soda (Liquid 32%)
804 674 739 679 693 339 517 754 19.3 8.7 104.2 (31.4) (20.8)
(CNY/ MT)
Compound Fert. (of Pot. Sulfate)
3,206 3,200 3,203 3,147 3,149 1,705 2,348 2,546 0.2 1.8 84.7 (7.8) (0.7)
(CNY/ MT)
Methanol(CNY/ MT) 2,904 2,619 2,762 2,496 2,578 1,680 1,772 2,148 10.9 10.6 53.5 (17.5) (25.4)

Pesticide (Glyphosate, 95%) (CNY/ MT) 58,600 53,375 55,988 51,512 52,708 30,481 22,513 24,562 9.8 8.7 72.9 (8.3) (9.0)

Sulfuric Acid (98%) (CNY/ MT) 1,031 1,008 1,019 866 876 400 159 270 2.3 17.7 118.9 (41.0) (28.0)

Urea (Small Granule)(CNY/ MT) 2,650 2,591 2,620 2,697 2,713 1,709 1,778 1,937 2.3 (2.8) 58.7 (8.2) (6.2)

Benzene (Industrial Grade) (CNY/ MT) 8,681 7,917 8,299 7,529 7,982 5,226 3,952 5,077 9.6 10.2 52.7 (22.2) (21.0)

Butadiene Rubber (BR9000) (CNY/ MT) 13,170 13,624 13,397 14,111 13,880 7,919 9,174 11,387 (3.3) (5.1) 75.3 (19.4) (11.3)

Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for 20t, Sep 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 27
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Spreads/ Margins
Spreads/ Margins (US$/ MT) Latest Prev. Sep-21 Aug-21 3Q2021 2Q2021 2020 2019 % WoW % MoM Sep-21 % QoQ 3Q2021 % YoY 2020 % YoY 2019
Caprolactam-Benzene 1,334 1,253 1,205 1,055 1,071 909 867 1,083 6.5 14.2 17.9 (19.9) (26.0)
Phenol/Acetone-Benz./Propylene 689 700 713 617 637 688 715 514 (1.7) 15.6 (7.4) 39.2 (35.6)
PP-Propylene 852 791 801 765 776 898 516 521 7.8 4.7 (13.5) (0.8) 9.5
Ethylene-Naphtha 414 451 447 541 513 623 302 423 (8.3) (17.5) (17.7) (28.5) (20.1)
PVC-EDC 705 695 659 603 622 777 574 514 1.4 9.4 (20.0) 11.6 (14.0)
PVC-VCM 295 230 245 210 223 272 147 125 28.3 16.7 (17.8) 17.6 (26.5)

Source: Bloomberg, China, Weekly average prices for month, quarter, and year, latest prices for week ended 01st Oct 2021

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 28
Chemical, Petrochemicals, Crude Prices, Margins & Trends – Q3CY2021
Price Trend Margin Trend
Acetic Acid Down ~13% QoQ at ~US$ 1,009/ MT from ~US$ 1158/ MT Caprolactam-Benzene Up ~18% QoQ
Acetone Down ~15% QoQ at ~US$ 913/ MT from ~US$ 1,076/ MT Phenol/ Acetone-Benzene/ Propylene Down ~7% QoQ
Acrylonitrile Up ~3% QoQ at ~US$ 2,297/ MT from ~US$ 2,231/ MT PP-Propylene Down ~14% QoQ
Caprolactam Up ~11% QoQ at ~US$ 2,314/ MT from ~US$ 2,081/ MT Ethylene-Naphtha Down ~18% QoQ
Caustic Soda Up ~25% QoQ at ~US$ 412/ MT from ~US$ 331/ MT PVC-EDC Down ~20% QoQ
MDI Down ~10% QoQ at ~US$ 2,829/ MT from ~US$ 3,145/ MT PVC-VCM Down ~18% QoQ

Phenol Up ~2% QoQ at ~US$ 1,454/ MT from ~US$ 1,428/ MT

Soda Ash Up ~39% QoQ at ~US$ 383/ MT from ~US$ 275/ MT

TDI Down ~1% QoQ at ~US$ 2,184/ MT from ~US$ 2,202/ MT

Ethyl Acetate Down ~7% QoQ at ~US$ 1,401/ MT from ~US$ 1,511/ MT

Phthalic Anhydride Up ~4% QoQ at ~US$ 855/ MT from ~US$ 823/ MT

Brent and WTI Up ~7-8% QoQ

Dollar Index Up ~2% QoQ

USDINR Flattish QoQ

Note: Q3 related to Q3CY 2021 (Jul-Sep qtr)

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 29
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions
Type of Investigation Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies
EU, Korea RP, Russia and
Final Finding (Sep 2021) Caprolactam ADD recommended GSFC
Thailand
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)
Final Finding (Sep 2021) China PR ADD recommended SRF
Component R-32
Investigation commenced for
Initiation (Sep 2021) China PR Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) Gujarat Fluorochemical, SRF
continuation of imposition of ADD
Rubber Chemicals PX-13 and
Final Finding (Sep 2021) EU, China PR ADD imposed
MOR
National Peroxide and Chlor-
Sunset review (Sep 21) Bangladesh and Thailand Hydrogen Peroxide Investigation commenced
Alkali Players
Investigation commenced for
Sunset review (Sep 21) Thailand Flexible Slabstock Polyol Manali Petrochemicals
continuation of imposition of ADD
Sunset review (Sep 21) China PR, Japan and Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) Investigation commenced GNFC
Sunset review (Aug 2021) China PR, Japan and Korea RP Toluene Di-isocyanate (TDI) Investigation commenced GNFC
Natural Mica based Pearl Industrial
Imposition of ADD (Aug 2021) China PR ADD imposed Sudarshan Chemical
Pigments
Gujarat State Fertilizers &
Sunset review (Aug 2021) People's Republic of China Melamine ADD recommended
Chemicals
Sunset Review (Aug 2021) Russia/Korea RP Polytetrafluoroethylene ADD recommended Gujarat Fluorochemicals, SRF

Imposition of ADD (Aug 2021) China PR Aceto Acetyl ADD imposed Laxmi Organic

Imposition of ADD (Jul 2021) EU Phenol ADD continued Deepak Nitrite, HOCL
Imposition of ADD (Jul 2021) China PR, Korea RP, and USA Rubber Chemical PX-13 ADD imposed NOCIL
Initiation (June 2021) Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and USA Mono Ethylene Glycols or MEG Investigation commenced India Glycols, Reliance Industries
Natural Mica based Pearl Industrial
Imposition of ADD (June 2021) China PR ADD Imposed Sudarshan Chemical
Pigments excluding cosmetic grade
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and
Initiation (May 2021) Soda Ash Investigation commenced GHCL, Tata Chemicals, DCW
Russia
China PR, Indonesia, Korea RP, IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai
Imposition of ADD (May 2021) Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) ADD Imposed
and Thailand Chemicals
China PR, European Union (EU), ADD to the tune of diff. between
Imposition of ADD (May 2021) Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber Apcotex
Japan, and Russia reference price and imported price
EU, Malaysia, Singapore, South
Sunset Review (Mar 2021) Normal Butanol - Andhra Petrochemicals
Africa, and USA
Source: DGTR, GoI

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 30
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions

Type of Investigation Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies

EU, Japan, Qatar, and United Arab

Initiation (Feb 2021) Melamine - GSFC
Emirates
European Union, Saudi Arabia,
Final Finding (Jan 2021) Chinese Taipei and United Arab Toluene Di-Isocyanate (TDI) ADD Imposed GNFC
Emirates

Final Finding (Jan 2021) Turkey Soda Ash Termination of ADD GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW

Gujarat Fluorochemicals, TGV

Final Finding (Jan 2021) China Methylene Chloride Continuation of ADD SRAAC, Gujarat Alkalies,
Meghmani
Positive for GNFC, Negative for
importers (users) such as NOCIL,
Final Finding (Jan 2021) China Aniline ADD Imposed
Aarti Industries, Bodal, Bhageria
Chemicals

Final Finding (Jan 2021) Turkey Soda Ash ADD Imposed GHCL, Tata Chemical, DCW

Final Finding (Jan 2021) China PR, Saudi Arabia Dimethyl Formamide (DMF) ADD Imposed Balaji Amines

IG Petrochemicals, Thirumalai
Sunset Review (Jan 2021) Russia Phthalic Anhydride ADD Imposed
Chemicals

Sunset Review (Dec 2020) European Union, Singapore Phenol In-Process Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Sunset Review (Dec 2020) South Africa Phenol ADD Imposed Deepak Nitrite, HOCL

Mid-Term Review (Dec 2020) Russia Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) ADD Modified Gujarat Fluorochemicals

DCW Limited, Grasim, GACL,

Initiation (Dec 2020) Japan, Iran, Qatar, Oman Caustic Soda In-Process Meghmani Organics, TGV SRAAC,
Chemfab Alkalies, Andhra Sugars

Imposition of ADD (Nov 2020) China PR ‘Fluoroelstomer’ (FKM) ADD Imposed Gujarat Fluorochemicals

Source: DGTR, GoI

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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 31
Anti-Dumping (ADD) Investigations/ Impositions

Type of Investigation Countries Product Imposed/ In-Proc. Impacted Companies

Sunset Review (Nov 2020) Korea RP Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber ADD Imposed Apcotex

Imposition of ADD (Nov 2020) China PR, Korea RP, USA Rubber Chemical PX-13 Prov. ADD imposed NOCIL

DCW Limited, Grasim, GACL,

Sunset Review (Oct 2020) China PR, Korea RP Caustic Soda ADD Imposed Meghmani Organics, TGV SRAAC,
Chemfab Alkalies, Andhra Sugars

Sunset Review (Oct 2020) China PR Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric’ (NTCF) ADD Imposed SRF

Imposition of ADD (Oct 2020) Korea, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan Acetone ADD Imposed Deepak Nitrite

Source: DGTR, GoI

Earnings at Risk
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as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 32
 Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%
HOLD Between -5% to 15%
SELL Below -5%

Completed Date: 07 Oct 2021 15:55:51 (SGT)

Dissemination Date: 07 Oct 2021 15:56:51 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

CIN - L67120MH1995PLC084899
7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai - 400028. India
Tel: +91 22 66121212 Fax: +91 22 66121299 Web: www.emkayglobal.com

NAVAL Digitally signed by NAVAL SETH

DN: c=IN, o=EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD,
ou=INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, cn=NAVAL SETH,
serialNumber=5486859566404ade1c4ed187e19b0fbd0
bc6ded66804bd4a1fa0708c90aeeb5f,

SETH
postalCode=400028,
2.5.4.20=abda4ce9ac067602590d86cf238501fd6c297f8
3ac23daf73ed9a76df274942b, st=Maharashtra

Earnings at Risk
Date: 2021.10.07 13:57:30 +05'30'

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors
as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. 35