1

REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

REWIND 2021 AND

OUTLOOK 2022
2
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Outlook on Global macros in 2021 and expectations from 2022 3

Outlook on Indian macros in 2021 and expectations from 2022 6

Currency and Gold Outlook 12

Outlook on Sectors 14

Top stock picks for 2022 16

Behavior of the Retail investor in 2021 22

 3
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

OUTLOOK ON GLOBAL MACROS IN 2021 AND

EXPECTATIONS FROM 2022

The last two years have been extraordinary -for humanity Volatile Prices
and the global economy. Despite the fact that the
COVID-19 pandemic now appears more under control Future prices of oil, coal and natural gas, 20172014
thanks to vaccination programs, parts of the global
economy, e.g. labour markets, have yet to stage a full
600

500
recovery. Inventories throughout the global economy
400
have been drawn down. Some of these shortfalls in
Index
300

production are related to COVID-19 measures and are 200

likely to improve as restrictions are lifted. Others look 100

set to persist in 2022, particularly those that require 0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
new business investments (i.e. factories) to ramp up
Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil
production. Despite these issues, global market-cap
kept rising, and the m-cap on GDP ratio touched all-time
Source: Blackrock
high due to large liquidity flows, low interest rates, the
expectation of normalcy and low returns from other asset
classes.
U.S. budget policy could remain more expansionary than
appears likely right now — keeping the economy away
from the brink of the fiscal cliff, and boosting growth.
Global m-cap soars Globally, households are sitting on trillions of dollars
of excess savings, thanks to pandemic stimulus and
enforced frugality during the lockdown. If that gets spent
$120
faster than expected, growth will accelerate.
$100
trillions (USD)

$80

$60
Real GDP %Y CPl %Y
$40
2021E 2022E Q4 2021E Q4 2022E
$20
Global 6.1 4.7 4.5 3.0
2004

2006

2009
2008
2005

2020
2007

2014
2010

2013

2016

2019
2018
2015
2012

2021
2017
2011

US 5.5 4.6 6.6 3.0

Global GDP Global Market Cap

Euro Area 5.2 4.6 4.1 1.4
UK 6.9 4.6 4.1 2.3
Japan 1.9 2.9 0.3 1.2
Source: Bloomberg, Purpose Investments
China 7.8 5.5 1 .3 1.9
India 8.9 7.5 4.5 4.3
The rate of change in price levels should start to peak Brazil 4.8 0.5 10.1 4.9
going forward. Much of the initial recovery in prices Russia 4.4 2.7 8.2 4.7
is now behind us (i.e. base effects are fading), while
there should be fewer supply chain disruptions ahead. Source: Morgan Stanley Research forecasts
However, tight labour markets and low inventory levels
may still prevent prices from going back to the previous
levels.
4
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Omicron, sticky inflation, Fed lift-off, China’s Evergrande going to be living with inflation. Gold could become more
slump, Taiwan, a run on emerging markets, hard Brexit, vulnerable if and when real yields shift upward. Among
a fresh euro crisis, and rising food prices in a tinder-box cyclical, decarbonisation efforts should lift medium-term
Middle East — all these are concern areas for the global demand prospects for base metals, even as one may see
economy and markets. tactical swings and periods of surplus dynamics along
the way. Oil prices could stay supported, as demand has
The year ahead will see the start of a meaningful economic further room to catch up, but supply competition could
and financial transition. A transition not just to post- increase as more non-OPEC volumes return. Hence, spot
COVID reality, but also to more normal monetary policy, prices may moderate somewhat as 2022 progresses. Gas
and to more moderate returns on financial markets. We and power could remain a source of volatility for a few
could see another year of positive equity returns (though months.
milder) coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful
restart of economic activity can at best be delayed – but Central banks and their assessment of economic
not derailed - due to new virus strains. Central banks will conditions will likely be front and centre once again in
start to raise rates but remain more tolerant of inflation. shaping investment strategies in 2022.
Inflation may settle above pre-Covid trends – we’re

Global Debt Levels (% of GDP)

Global Debt has risen post pandemic Federal Reserve Balance Sheet at a % of GDP
40 %

140 35
123
120 107
102 102 30
100 86 86 89 90 92
USD Trillion

84 85
77 25
80
60 20
40 15
20
10
0
5
16

17
10

11

12

13

14

15

18

19

20

21
n

n
n

n
n

n
n

n
Ja

Ja

Ja
Ja

Ja

Ja
Ja

Ja
Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja

0
Financial corporations General goverment Non-financial corporations Global Debit
90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18
Note: 3 month moving average with most recent data point being actual value. CS economics team estmates.

Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM
service, Credit Suisse

Debt to GDP for major economics at all time high Debt to GDP (%)
levels
251.9
223.1
450 The Events around US hitting debt celling
remains on important development to monitor
100
total dedt to GDP %

155.3

350 113.7
98.3 99.2
300 68.4

250

200
Germany U.S. U.K. France Italy Japan Greece
150

100
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19 Mar-21

US China Japan Euro Area Source: Federal Reserve, Office for National Statistic de France,
Deutche Bundesbank, Instituto Nazionale di Statistica, Bank of
Japan, Ministerio de Economia y Prodcution, Haver Analytics, the
Source: Edelweiss Research
BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service, Credit Suisse
 5
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

In the US, a multi-year infra spend could result in a virtuous cycle for that economy and other countries that can be
suppliers to the demand.

Spending and Tax proposals under the American Spending and Tax proposals under the American
Jobs Plan (AJP) Families Plan (AJP)

Spending Category Total (2022-2031) Spending Category Commitment

Transportation Infrastructure $621 bn Tax Credit extension (Child, Dependent,

$600 bn
Earned Income Tax credits)
Electricity Grid, Broadband and Drinking
$311 bn Healthcare Tax Credit Extensions $200 bn
Water

Homes, Schools and Buildings $350 bn Child and Family Support (incl.paid leave) $495 bn

R&D and Green and Resilient Education Initiatives (pre school, college
$580 bn $511 bn
Manufacturing levels)

Cane Economy $400 bn IRS Capacity Building $80 bn

Total $2262 bn Total $1886 bn

Bond markets track economic The extreme optimism in Oil market may be a cause of concern for Oil
growth. When growth slows, bond bulls. It did bottom out in extreme pessimism.
yields fall. Recently global growth has
begun to slow down & is now seeing 50 Global growth has hit a 75
plateau and is coming off
a slowdown after rising swiftly over
40
the last 12 months. 70
30

This is likely to have a sobering 20 Rate expectations

65
Bps

Bps
impact on bond yields & interest have begun to decline
10 60
rates globally. Look for softening of
bond yields, especially for bonds 0
55
of longer duration, even as central 10
banks roll back stimulus. 50
20
Dec-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21

Fed Funds Rate Expected Increase In One Year (LHS Growth Barometer* RHS

Source: DSP Mutual Fund

While the global markets could correct in the near term, some analysts believe
that later in H2CY22, a ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble
in 100 years. Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace)
leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again
create a bubble that bursts.

Buying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given
the market’s behaviour in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases.
According to Credit Suisse data, statistics in the S&P 500 from a year before
an initial rate boost to six months afterwards have averaged almost 15%.From
the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average
gain is 18%.
6
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

OUTLOOK ON INDIAN MACROES IN 2021 AND

EXPECTATIONS FROM 2022

Indian macros and equity outlook

Post a super show in 2021, valuation levels in Indian
equities could make most people cautious on India
within EMs and Asia. Also, uncertainties on crude and
commodity prices, speed of US tapering, and Covid
recurrence are other factors that lead to a cautious
view. Indian equities are running into many challenges,
including the US rate cycle, rising oil prices, elections
in key states, potential Covid wave 3, upward inflexion
in domestic interest rates, rich headline valuations and
strong relative trailing performance. However, the market
still has potential to positively surprise, as a macro
construct (GDP growth, tax collections, flush liquidity, the
start of a Capex cycle, a listing of start-ups leading to
risk on sentiments, supportive monetary policy, better-
than expected pace of macro recovery post-pandemic,
and strong vaccination drive) and earnings remain largely
supportive.
India appears to be in a structural uptrend with a likely new
profit cycle, supportive policy, likely rise in fixed income
flows, new issuances and falling return correlations with
the world. While headline valuations look rich, they must
be seen in the context of depressed long-term earnings.
In H1CY22, we think the market could cool off as it
absorbs the gains of the preceding 18 months. Earnings
momentum could pick up in 2HCY22. We expect
clarification on the tax issues in the budget in February,
paving the way for the inclusion of Indian bonds in the
global bond index by Q2FY22.
We think the equity markets and the bond markets could
discount this major positive shift in India’s macro going
forward.

Bull market cycles FIIs have been negative on India post September 2021
with outflows every month. This has been compensated
700% by MF flows and retail money.
600%

500%
FII vs MF Net Equity Inflows (Rs. Crore)
400%

300%
35000

200% 30000
25000
100% 20000
Weeks into the bull market 15000
0%
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 10000
5000
0
1991  1992 1998  2000 2009  2010 1993  1994
5000
2003  2008 Mar ‘ 20 onwards 10000
15000
Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21

July-21

Aug-21

Sep-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

20000
Source: BSE, Morgan Stanley Research
Net Fll Equity (Rs. Crore) Net MF Equity (Rs. Crore)

The above chart shows the steepness of the rise in this

upmove compared to the previous ones. However, in
terms of timelines, it still has a few weeks to run.
 7
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Indian economy on good wicket.. here are some data points & charts

Number of Demat Number of SIP Accounts

India Population Accounts (Nov 21) (Nov 21)
1,380 million 77.2 million 47.8 million

Number of Active Life Insurance Premium

Bank Accounts
Broking Clients (Nov 21) (Nov 21)
1,060 million ₹1,807 billion
~29 million

PAN Card Number of Aadhar Card Life Insurance AUM

509.5 million 1,317 million (Mar 21)

₹38,900 billion

Tax Return
MF Total AAUM (Nov 21) MF Equity AUM (Nov 21)
59.5 million 3,845 billion ₹1,320 billion
(as of 2019)

MF Investor
Bank Deposits (Oct 21)
117 million
(Folios, Nov 21) ₹157 trillion
8
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

PMI Numbers in Expansionary Mode Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21
Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-20

Sep-21
Nov-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

May-21

Sep-21
Jan-20

May-20

Jul-20

Jan-20

Jul-21

GDP growth YoY % - Indian economy recovering from

Covid-19 Composite PMI

70
20.1

60

8.7 8.9 8.4

7.3 7.1 5.8 50
5.1 6.2 5.6 5.4 4.6 3.3 2.7
0.4 1.6
40

30

20

10

0
Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21
Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-20

Sep-21
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY18 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY21 FY21 FY21 FY22 FY22

Indian real estate on a cyclical uptrend

Unsold inventory in top 10 Indian cities India is the fastest growing Economy with 8.4%
GSDP growth rate
1.1

1.0

1.0 India 8.4

Romania 8.0
0.9
UK 6.0

0.9 South Africa 6.2

Hungery 6.1
0.8 Mexico 5.8

China
0.8 4.9
USA 4.9
0.7 Mexico 4.0

Italy 3.8
0.7
Canada 3.8
0.6 Indoneshia 3.7

July-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 -20

Jun Dec-20 Jun-21 Sweden 3.7

France 3.3
Unsold Inventory (Mn Units) Spain 2.7

Germany 2.5 India is the fastest growing Economy

Japan 1.3 with 8.45 GDP growth rate
Source: Proptiger
Source: OECD, SBI Research

Nifty consensus estimates suggest that after a long period of muted growth between FY15 and FY20, strong growth
in Nifty EPS is expected over the next three years.
 9
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

GST Collections & E-way bill generation

GST collections rose to Rs. 1.31 lakh crore in November’21, second highest since implementation of the GST
regime

1,41,384

1,31,526
1,30,127
1,23,902
1,60,000
1,19,847

1,16,393
1,15,174

1,17,010
1,12,020
1,13,143
1,04,963

1,40,000

1,02,709

92.849
1,20,000

1,00,000
Rs. Crore

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

Mar-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Nov-21
Nov-20

Jun-21

Jul-21
Dec-20

Jan-21

Sep-21
Source: Ministry of Finance

Corporate Profit as % of GDP E-Way Bill generation (Cr.)

... 8.0
6.0 th but
ro co
ug nt
h h t inu
ug he es
7.0
ro
5.0 st
h 2n to
d d st
ise ec um 6.0
y r ... ad p
b ilit ade e
4.0 ita ec 5.0
of t d
Pr e 1s
th
3.0 4.0

3.0
2.0
2.0

1.0
1.0

0.0 0.0
FY07
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06

FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E

Jun-18

Jun-19
Aug-18

Dec-18

Aug-19

Dec-19
Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21
Aug-20

Source: Ace Equity, Jefferies

10
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Corporate Balance sheet have seen deleveraging

On a D/E basis, the deleveraging in the current cycle India has sufficient fiscal space, given the nominal
has already exceeded that seen in previous, creating growth rebound being much healthier
significant CAPEX headroom.
20,000

Gross D/E ratio of large listed companies 18,000

16,000 At INR 5.5 billion, fiscal
deficit is currentl;y lower
14,000 than pre-covid years

INR Billion
12,000
1.20 10,000
Deleveraging cycle 8,000
1.00 largely played out
Deleveraging cycle
6,000

0.80 4,000
2,000
0.60 0
Total Total Total Revenue Capital
0.40 Receipts Revenue Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure
FY18F Y19F Y20F Y21 FY22
0.20

0.00
Source: Ace Equity, Jefferies
FY07

FY17
FY18
FY19
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06

FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16

FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY08
FY09

India is now the 6th largest market cap nation, having

overtaken France in September, and is just behind the
Source: Ace Equity, Jefferies
UK. The moves from $1 trillion t$2 trillion came between
2007- 2017, $2 trillion to $3 trillion came between 2017-
2021. The next trillion-dollar move could come in even
India has seen a huge 23% jump in nominal GDP in
faster, pulling up the rankings of India soon.
H1FY22 partly due to the base effect. However, higher
inflation + real rebound in activity have been a catalyst. India’s share of World and regional marke
Improving listed space profitability has resulted in higher capitalization and index weight is likely to
tax collection. Apr-Oct tax collections at Rs. 10.5 trillion is meaningfully over the next few years
double of last year & handsomely beat pre-covid figures
of INR 6.8 trillion. India is set to surprise positively the
18.0%
India’s Share of World Share of EM
deficit front in the upcoming budget in Feb 2022. 16.0% 15.3%
14.2%
14.0%
12.0%
12.0%
2023E
10.0% Current
8.0%
6.0%
3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7%
4.0% 2.8%
2.0% 2.5%
1.4%
2.0%
0.0%
GDP Listed Market Cap MSCI AC World wgt MSCI EM wgt

Source: MSCI, Goldman Sach Global Investment Research India’s

share of World and regional market capitalization and index weight
is likely to meaningfully over the next few years
 11
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Some concern areas

Withdrawal of monetary stimulus and rise in interest rates could result in some foreign funds being withdrawn from
India temporarily. However, these could come back if Indian economy performs to its potential.

Crude oil price rise above $80/barrel could impact the Indian indices trajectory.

The Indian equity market appears to be less tolerant of crude oil prices above USD80/b

160 20000
18000
140
16000
120
14000
100 12000
80 10000
8000
60
6000
40
4000
20 2000
0 0
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 Dec -20

Crude Oil (USD/b)

Source: Refinitiv, HSBC. Data as of 1 Dec 2021

Inflation remains a cause for concern

CPI WPI

8 14
7 12
6 10
8
5
6
4
4
3 2
2 0
-2
1
-4
Oct-19

Feb-20

Oct-20

Feb-21
Dec-19

Apr-20

Jun-20

Dec-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jun-21
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

0
-6
Oct-19

Oct-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Oct-20
Dec-19

Jun-20
Apr-20
Feb-20

Aug-21
Dec-20
Aug-20

WPI 3 Month Avg

CPI 3 Month Avg
12
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

CURRENCY AND GOLD OUTLOOK

USDINR chart

Source: MSCI, Goldman Sach Global Investment Research

Spot USDINR Outlook for 2022

Bullish Factors for INR Bearish Factors for INR

• Strong FDI Inflows • Higher Trade Deficit

• Fastest Growing Economy • Rise in Crude and Dollar Index
• India’s inclusion in JPMorgan’s global emerging- • Foreign Fund Outflows
market bond index • Higher Inflation and Unemployment
• Policy Divergence between Fed and RBI

Spot USDINR Outlook

Period Bias Range

H1 2022 Bullish 74.50 to 77.50

H2 2022 Profit Booking (Sideways) 77.50 to 75.50

Central Bank Buying 605 255

 13
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Gold Outlook

World Stats (in Tonnes) 2019 2020 YoY

Gold Supply 4878 4723 -3%

Gold Demand 4344 3658 -16%

Central Bank Buying 605 255 -58%

Gold ETF (Q320 vs Q321) 3887 3592 -8%

World Demand Stats (in Tonnes) Q3'20 Q3'21 YoY%

Gold demand 894 831 -7%

Jewellery 333 443 33%

Technology 77 84 9%

Investment 495 235 -53%

Central banks & other inst. -11 69 -754%

Indian Stats (in Tonnes) Q3'20 Q3'21 YoY %

Supply 135 278 106%

Indian Gold Demand 189 278 47%

India Gold Imports 89 256 188%

• Gold prices have so far witnessed negative returns in
the year 2021 losing more than 5% as the reopening of
global economic activities and large scale vaccination
improved investors sentiment towards riskier assets.
• The economic growth optimism boosted buying in
USD, trading 3% up for the year. The rebound in the
economic recovery has led to sharp buying in equity
markets, which resulted in liquidation from Gold ETFs
holdings. As a result, the Bloomberg World Gold ETF
holdings have declined to 3054 tonnes from record
3467 tonnes.
• The US Fed is one of the key factors determining future
gold price trends as COVID worries are overcome.
Gold prices fell below $1800 per ounce after the US
Fed Vice Chair’s recent comments hint to raise interest
rates sooner than 2023.
get some relief from Rupee depreciation. The spot
rupee is trading 2.63% down for the current year
against the dollar. The total Indian consumer demand
has risen by 47% in the September quarter on year on
year basis as per World Gold Council report.
• The hawkish US Fed stance has clearly voided the
long term bullish outlook for gold. However, gold
prices still may continue their upside over the medium
term following inflation worries and uncertainty over
the omicron variant of coronavirus. The US inflation
and development in real bond yields may still cause
some triggers for gold to rally.
• With CMP at $1780, we maintain our bullish view in
Gold with Targets at $1920 with strong support at
$1670 per ounce.

• Gold prices in India have their downside capped

compared to the fall in COMEX gold prices as prices
14
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
OUTLOOK ON SECTORS
Key investible themes for 2022
Technology
The IT sector is clearly the leading sector of this
economic upcycle, with strong IT spending being visible
across sectors. We expect this momentum to sustain
in 2022 and beyond as corporates across sectors
increase digital thrust. Along with the gigeconomy,
this sector has a strong multiplier factor for overall
job creation and GDP growth. While valuations have
rerated across the board for IT stocks, we continue to
find large-cap IT stocks reasonably valued relative to
growth and quality of cash flows.
Financials
2021 saw large banks posting strong profit growth as
the worst of NPA cycle of 2016-2020 is clearly behind
us. We expect 2022 to see further improvement in
banks profit drivers, viz. loan growth and credit costs.
Smaller banks and NBFC’s struggled through 2021,
given NPA issues that should resolve out in 2022.
Valuations for financials seem reasonable with scope
for further rerating as business conditions improve.
Within BFSI, we continue to favour insurance and
capital market businesses (brokerages, AMC’s) given
the structural shift away from bank deposits to a wider
spectrum of financial products such as mutual funds,
direct equity investments, life and non-life insurance
products. We expect this trend to sustain for the next
few years given low penetration levels vs traditional
bank deposits.
Consumption
Low ticket consumer discretionary (appliances,
eating out, apparel, leisure and entertainment, home
improvement) continues to remain an attractive
space as the economy comes out of covid induced
lockdowns, and structurally, with rising income
levels, discretionary spends on low ticket items are
increasing (Typically economies witness a J-curve on
low ticket discretionary spends after per capita GDP
crossing USD 2000). Greater access to financing with
the rise of fintech’s will further facilitate consumption
ahead of income growth. While valuations are rich
in consumption space, we continue to spot select
bottom-up opportunities which look attractive from
multiyear investment perspective as demographics
and income pyramid are in favour.
Real estate and building materials
Real estate has made a strong comeback in 2021
with a pick-up in residential volumes across large
metro markets. Lower inventory levels, decade best
affordability, and consolidation of market share
with larger players are structural positives that
should underpin the residential upcycle’s early stage
continuing into 2022. Therefore, we remain positive on
real estate themes, and building material companies
(e.g. cement, tiles, pipes, paints etc.) should also see
the same benefits in 2022 and beyond.

Infrastructure and capital goods
Govt. thrust on infrastructure creation is expected to
pickup further momentum as manufacturing activity
picks up. Pre-election years tend to witness pick-up in
order, which should provide a fillip in 2022 and 2023.
Valuations seem reasonable in this space, and balance
sheets have become stronger for key players given
better execution and capital allocation discipline.
15
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
Healthcare
Healthcare spends are expected to be on a structural
uptrend both in public and private space. Post covid,
awareness towards health has increased, and we expect
hospital, diagnostic chains and domestic oriented
pharma companies to benefit from this multiyear trend.
Rising healthcare insurance penetration (also driven
partly through the impetus of government schemes)
and disposable incomes are key drivers for this
spending to continue its upward momentum.
 16
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

TOP STOCK PICKS FOR 2022

Book Net Change Change

Sr Equity PAT EPS P/E Last Dividend
Company Industry FV CMP Mkt cap Value Sales in sales in PAT P/BV
No Latest FY21 TTM TTM Div %. Yield
latest FY21 y-o-y y-o-y
Finance -
Aditya Birla
1 Investment / 2,416.2 10 125.1 30,227 59.8 19247.8 15.3% 1126.5 21.6% 5.6 22.5 2.1 0 0.0%
Cap
Others

2 GAIL (India) Gas Distribution 4,440.4 10 133.4 59,213 135.3 57371.9 -20.9% 6136.4 -34.9% 21.1 6.3 1.0 50 3.7%

Hindustan
3 Metal - Zinc 845.1 2 368.0 155,470 86.0 22071.0 20.4% 7980.0 17.3% 20.8 17.7 4.3 1065 5.8%
Zinc*
Pharmaceuticals
4 Ipca Labs. 25.4 2 2035.7 415.0 5420.0 16.6% 1140.0 88.0% 77.5 26.3 4.9 400 0.4%
- 25,823
Automobiles -
5 M&M 621.6 5 843.1 347.3 74277.8 -1.5% 2534.4 251.9% 35.7 23.6 2.4 175 1.0%
passenger cars 104,814
Finance -
6 Max Financial Investment / 69.0 2 996.1 108.5 31273.9 71.5% 425.4 193.4% 8.7 115.0 9.2 0 0.0%
34,374
Others
Hospitals
Max
7 / Medical 969.6 10 399.4 61.4 2504.7 136.5% 50.3 -14.7% 4.7 84.6 6.5 0 0.0%
Healthcare 38,725
Services
Banks - Public
8 St Bk of India 892.5 1 487.8 301.3 278115.5 3.1% 21393.2 31.2% 38.2 12.8 1.6 400 0.8%
Sector 435,342
Computers
Tech
9 - Software - 485.2 5 1638.2 259.7 37855.1 2.7% 4428.0 9.8% 52.4 31.3 6.3 900 2.7%
Mahindra 158,969
Large
Zee Entertainment -
10 96.1 1 358.1 107.8 7729.9 -4.9% 875.6 37.4% 12.4 28.9 3.3 250 0.7%
Entertainmen Electronic Media 34,391

Source: Capitaline Database, All figures in Rs. except for Equity, Sales FY21 and PAT FY21, CMP is as of Dec 13 2021, EPS is adjusted for extraordinary items, Past
dividend yield may not necessarily sustain in future, Amount in cr

Aditya Birla Cap.
(M Cap Rs 30,227 cr)
• Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (ABCL) is the holding company
of all the financial services businesses of the Aditya
Birla group and aims to be an end-to-end financial
services provider. It continues its credible makeover
journey to drive consolidated return ratios closer to
franchise potential over the next three years.
• AB Finance remains focused on building granularity
across segments while reducing ticket size across
the board. ABHFL continued its focus on affordable
housing, which has doubled its AUM in the last 2
years and comprises 33% of the total housing finance
AUM. ABSLAMC is focused on increasing the share of
equity-oriented funds overall, which provides a higher
margin.
GAIL (India)
(M Cap Rs 59,213 cr)
• GAIL is India’s leading gas transmission and
distribution company in India and engaged in various
activities ranging from the gas transmission and
distribution to processing (for fractionating liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG), propane, special boiling point
(SBP) solvent and pentane, the transmission of LPG,
production and marketing of petrochemicals like
high- density polyethylene (HDPE) and Linear low-
density polyethylene (LLDPE) and leasing bandwidth
in telecommunications.
Hindustan Zinc
(M Cap Rs 1,55,470 cr)
• Hindustan Zinc (HZL) is one of the world’s largest and
India’s only integrated manufacturers of zinc-lead and
silver. World’s second-largest zinc-lead miner and one
among the lowest-cost producers of zinc globally.
HZL is India’s largest primary zinc producer, with 77%
market share including alloys and 80% market share
without alloys.
17
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
• ABCL focuses on leveraging technology and analytics
to grow revenue, improve customer experience,
optimise cost and build robust, scalable systems.
The company is implementing a common branch
infrastructure, which will allow a number of its
businesses to enter new locations with a lean and
low-cost model and cross-sell products, which could
lead to a saving of about Rs 40cr.
• Concerns: Stiff competition from peers and new
entrants and worsening of asset quality in the lending
book due to the third wave of Covid pandemic and/
or slowdown in the economy are key concerns for the
stock.
• GAIL is planning to expand in petrochemicals,
speciality chemicals and renewables to supplement
growth in its core business of natural gas marketing
and transportation. It plans to bid for new pipelines
put on offer by the regulator.
• Concern: Volatility in oil and gas prices, higher tariff
reduction in existing pipelines and regulatory changes
could impact its growth story in the near future. A
general economic slowdown can have an impact on
the growth plan of the Company.
• High operating efficiency is driven by fully integrated
operations (with a captive power plant capacity of
485.5 megawatts) and low-cost, high-grade zinc
reserves and with access to the bulk of lead-zinc
deposits in Rajasthan through long-term agreements
with the Government of India, hence the company
should sustain as a low-cost producer of zinc over the
medium term.
18
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
• The Supreme Court allowed disinvestment of the
Centre’s residuary 29.5% share in the open market
in November. Post divestment, it is expected to
command better valuation.
• Concerns: Demand for zinc is very closely linked
to the galvanized steel industry, which consumes
approximately 70% of the zinc produced in India. The
Ipca Labs.
(M Cap Rs 25,823 cr)
• The key therapeutic segments include Cardiac, Pain
Management (Rheumatology), Anti-Malarial and
AntiDiabetic, Anti-Infectives etc. the company derived
~46% of its revenues from the domestic market while
54% from international markets in FY21.
• US business has seen some improvement and now
forms ~10% of the overall revenues. Timely resolution
of import alerts issued by the US FDA could provide an
additional uptick to revenue growth and profitability.
Any favorable outcome from US FDA for its facilities
would further rerate the stock.
• Ipca continues to maintain a leadership position in
segments such as rheumatoid arthritis & orthopaedic
and cardiac and anti-diabetic therapies in the
domestic market
M&M
(M Cap Rs 1,04,814 cr)
• M&M is the world’s largest tractor manufacturer and
the third largest passenger vehicle manufacturer
in India. M&M’s refreshed SUV portfolio including
XUV300, Thar, Bolero Neo, XUV700 etc. has a healthy
order book. It has a strong product pipeline in UVs and
tractors to help outperform the industry.
steel industry depends on the growth of end user
industries such as automotive, consumer durables,
batteries, home appliances, construction, and
infrastructure. Any downturn in any of these industries
will impact the demand for galvanized steel. The
company also faces regulatory and environmental
risks as all mines are clustered in Rajasthan.
• Company had one-off benefits such as HCQS during
covid and sartan opportunities in API. Hence, the
FY22 growth outlook remains challenging, we see
strong growth to resume FY23 onwards.
• We are positive on Ipca Labs on the back of: i)
strong volume growth in domestic formulation
across therapeutic areas, ii) cost competitive and
consistent quality driving better business prospects
in API segment, iii) robust debt free B/S and strong
return ratios and iv) better traction in the international
markets such as Europe and Asia.
• Concerns: Change in the regulatory landscape; and
negative outcome of key facility inspections by the US
FDA may affect earnings prospects. Ratlam, Silvasa
and Indore facilities continue to be under US FDA
import alert. Addition of drugs in the National List of
Essential Medicines (NLEM) could hurt the domestic
business.
• It is planning to launch 13 new products across LCVs,
SUVs, and 3Ws to drive growth in the medium term –
of this, 20% will be EVs. The company plans to launch
16 electric vehicles by 2027, out of which 8 will be
electric SUVs and 8 light commercial vehicles.

• The management has guided for flat to low single
digit growth in FY22 due to a demanding base effect.
The tractor market share though is up 190bps YoY
to 40.1%. M&M is targeting a 10x increase in the agri
implements segment to drive growth in the medium
term (INR 120bn market size by 2027).
Max Financial
(M Cap Rs 34,374 cr)
• A diversified product portfolio and strong distribution
reach has made the company fourth largest private
life insurance player in India. Given the strong brand,
leadership and tailwinds on the back of financialisaton
of savings, we remain optimistic on the future growth
of the company.
• A strategic partnership with Axis Bank provides long
term distribution capability, ending uncertainty and
market anxiety over the future of Max Life (MAXL) and
Axis Bank’s distribution arrangement.
• Over a long-term period, India’s highly underpenetrated
life insurance space is attractively positioned to
Max Healthcare
(M Cap Rs 38,725 cr)
• Max Healthcare Institute Limited (MHIL) is one of
India’s leading hospital chains with 17 facilities and
~3,400 beds and was formed after the merger of Max
Healthcare and Radiant.
• The company focuses on providing tertiary and
quaternary care services, contributing ~70% of its
hospital revenues. Max healthcare is the second largest
healthcare provider in terms of revenue and enjoys
industry-leading ARPOBs and occupancies, given that
~85% of its beds are located in metro/ tier-1 cities. It
also operates home care under Max@ Home (which
provides preventive and pre/posthospitalisation care
at home) and diagnostic business under Max Lab,
which are currently in nascent stages of development.
19
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
• Concerns: Chip shortages, commodity price inflation
and the possibility of a third wave of Covid are key
risks going forward
capture the huge growth opportunity. Large private
players are in better place to take advantage given
their ability to push protection business by leveraging
strong brand and existing network.
• Concerns: Rising competition, especially via digital
disruptors, poses pricing and volume risk for traditional
players. High promoter pledging is one of the reasons
why the stock has been given a lower valuation
multiple compared to other listed peers. As of Sep-21,
57% of the promoter’s holding has been pledged to
lenders.
• MHIL enjoys higher ARPOB compared to peers largely
due to a higher share of operational beds in metros/
northern urban areas (Delhi NCR and Mumbai) and
a superior case mix. The company enjoys higher
occupancy levels across network hospitals.
• Strong revenue growth is driven by increasing health
insurance penetration, better patient mix, increasing
ARPOB, growth in medical tourism and focus on
specialities. Optimisation of payor mix offers scope
for margin expansion.
• The company has reduced its net debt significantly.
Strong free cash flows and low debt provides adequate
headroom to expand through brownfield, greenfield
and M&A.
20
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

• Concerns: Delay in capacity addition, delay in A substantial portion of the company’s healthcare
improvement in payor mix and an unfavourable change operations are concentrated in North India; a regional
in agreement with partnered healthcare facilities slowdown or political unrest/disruption in NCR could
(trusts) would impact its operations and profitability. impact its business.

St Bk of India
(M Cap Rs 4,35,342 cr)

• SBI is the largest Public Sector Bank with over 22,000 ample provision coverage will curtail incremental loan
branches and stands to gain from improvement in loss provisions.
India’s economic growth. It is a financial conglomerate
• On the digitalization front, its YONO app continues
with a presence in insurance, asset management,
to generate strong traction across all metrics. 37%
credit cards and various other services including
of retail asset accounts and 58% of savings accounts
stake in various regional rural banks through various
opened through YONO in Q2FY22. Among PSU banks,
subsidiaries and JV companies. Bank’s subsidiaries
SBI remains the best play on the gradual recovery
remain in a better position with premium valuations on
in the Indian economy, with a healthy PCR, robust
improving positioning post COVID impact absorption.
capitalization, a strong liability franchise and an
• SBI is almost immune to any liability-side risks at this improved asset quality outlook.
juncture, given its expansive, granular deposit base
• Concerns: Given its size and exposure, increasing
and government’s majority holding. It is better placed
geographic penetration by newer private sector
to curtail asset quality worries than many other large
banks, Macro-economic risk can lead to a faster than
banks because of its quality of loan books. Moreover,
expected decline in market share.

Tech Mahindra
(M Cap Rs 1,58,969 cr)

• Tech Mahindra is US$ 5.2 bn the company with 121,000 operations, 5G, Cloud, AI and customer experience on
professionals across 90 countries and engaged in the the communication side in the longer term.
business of providing IT solutions to various clients. The
• Tech Mahindra net new deal TCVs has been remained
company has established capabilities across verticals
significantly higher than the average quarterly deal
– Communication and Enterprise (Manufacturing,
wins of US$ 400mn -500mn. Tech Mahindra is well
BFSI, Technology, Media and Entertainment (TME),
positioned to expand a fair share of 5G network
Retail, transport and logistics (RTL), healthcare etc.).
services and the company is experiencing a large-
• Tech Mahindra is focused on leveraging next deal strategy and customer-led approach.
generation technologies including Blockchain,
• Concerns: Indian rupee appreciation against the USD,
Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, 5G and more, to
pricing pressure, higher attrition rate and retention of
disrupt and enable digital transformation and to build
the skilled headcounts, strict immigration norms ,and
cutting-edge technology solutions and services. Tech
rise in visa costs are key concerns.
Mahindra could see improved spending on network

Zee Entertainment
(HIGH RISK Pick, M Cap Rs 34,391 cr)
• Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL) has
strong recognition in the media and entertainment
industry and it has a long and successful track
record. Further, ZEEL and its affiliate companies have
presence across varied media value chains including
television broadcasting, cable distribution, direct-
tohome satellite service, digital media, and print media
• Concerns: Media and Entertainment industry is highly
amongst others.
• The company’s pan-India viewership and focus on
digital are likely to anchor growth over the long term.
Apart from this, ZEEL’s OTT app Zee5 is well placed to
improve its traction leading to revenue improvement &
loss reduction.
• ZEEL and Sony Pictures Networks India (SPNI) have
entered into an exclusive, non-binding term sheet for
21
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022
the merger of the two companies. The parent company
of SPNI will invest growth capital of ~US$ 1.6bn. The
merged entity will become the market leader with
~25% of market share led by wide offerings, robust
financials, and strong digital businesses and sports
rights.
regulated and competition, implementation of New
Tariff Amendment Order (NTO 2.0) and increasing
smartphone penetration and affordable data tariffs
are key concerns. Besides, American investment firm
Invesco’s ongoing allegations on favouritism over Zee
Entertainment and Sony deal has highlighted relatively
poor corporate governance standards.
22
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

BEHAVIOR OF THE RETAIL INVESTOR IN 2021

The pandemic-sparked retail frenzy in India’s stock market got even bigger this year. Individual investors piled more
money into equities than foreign and domestic institutions combined for the second straight year. And the gap
widened. Individual investors have clearly moved away from dull small savings instruments towards the more exciting
and rewarding equities (directly or through mutual funds) in a big way.

Changing Preference

Small Savings Accounts Opended (In Lakh)

465.9
411.9 410.8

233.1

Increase in Demat Accounts (In Lakh) Increse in MF Investors Accounts (in Lakh)

187 191

142
112
81.2
72
50
39

*Data on demat account is up to Oct 2021, while for small saving scheme is up to Nov 2021; All MF data as of March-end, FY22 os as of Nov 21
Source: MSCI, Goldman Sach Global Investment Research
 23
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Total DMAT Active Account As per NSE India’s Market Pulse report, net investment by
the retail segment in the cash market stood at Rs 86,000
90000000
80000000
crore as of October \2021. That’s a 68% jump over the
70000000 entire 2020. In comparison, foreign portfolio investors
60000000
50000000
withdrew Rs 30,600 crore and domestic institutions
40000000 pumped in less than Rs 10,000 crore during the period.
30000000
20000000
10000000
0 Annual net inflows by investors through NSE’s CM
Segment, 2017-21
Sep-18
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18

Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Nov-21
Jul-18

Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19

Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20

Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Total

Average daily turnover (cash)

70000
61839
60000
50000
40000
32062
30000
20387
20000 17818
11325 14048 10833
10000 7812
5337 4506
17 1176 1651 2462
0

Source: NSE

Source: NSE

Individuals directly buying shares FPIs increased their exposure to Of the more than 1.9 crore new
accounted for nearly half of India’s additional 306 companies so far in investors who entered the market
stock market turnover in 2020 2021 in search of alpha. DIIs have in 2021, over 80% have below Rs
and 2021 so far, the highest in a expanded their portfolio by additional 50,000 invested on a net basis. Retail
decade. The retail segment owned 58 companies and retail investors by investors’ share (others) in the BSE
9.4% of the NSE-listed stocks as of 38. Retail investors have invested in turnover rose to 55.7% in July 2021
September compared to 21% by FIIs 1,986 companies till October. (vs 52.5% in 2020-21) before falling
and 13.4% DIIs. later.

Category-wise Share of Turnover in Cash Segment of BSE

Year / Month Proprietary FPls Mutual Fund Banks Others

2020-21 32.4 12.2 2.9 0.1 52.5
2021-22$ 32.7 13.0 2.1 0.0 32.1
Apr-21 36.7 7.7 1.2 0.0 54.5
May-21 77.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7
Jun-21 31.4 13.0 1.7 0.0 53.8
Jul-21 32.9 9.5 1.8 0.0 55.7
Aug-21 31.4 14.3 2.6 0.0 51.6
Sep-21 29.4 21.8 2.0 0.0 46.8
Oct-21 34.0 15.5 2.7 0.0 47.7

$ indicates as on October 31,2021, Source: BSE

24
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

In NSE Derivatives market, Retail investors (others) share In 2017, India saw USD 15bn in IPOs, but the global number
has not grown much even as the proprietary trader’s stood at USD 215 bn. This time, the IPO rally is a huge
share has risen. global sweep, with total IPO issuances at a whopping
USD 600 bn!
NSE Dervatives Category wise (% Turnover)
India is set to break its 2017 record of USD 15bn
70.0 0.6 in IPOs in a massive global tide. Historically these
60.0
0.5
peaks have been followed by a quiet primary market
50.0
phase.
0.4

40.0
0.3
30.0
700 18
0.2 600 16
20.0
14
500
10.0
0.1 12
400 10
0.0
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
0.0
300 8
Proprietary FPIs Others Mutual Funds Banks
6
200
4
100
2
0 0

2007
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
IPOs brought in even more flurry from the retail in addition
to FPIs. This is clear from the total IPO amount raised, Global Equity IPOs (USD Bn)I ndia Equity IPOs (USD Bn) RHS

retail portion oversubscription and the number of retail

applications which touched and crossed 30 lakhs in quite
a few issues. Historically, a primary market boom is followed by lull or
low activity years.. It usually coincides with low secondary
market returns ahead as well. Equities beat returns from
IPO Offer size ($ Billion)
other asset classes handsomely in 2021.
15.8
16.0

14.0

12.0
12.3 12.5
Asset classes returns 2021
10.0 9.1
8.7
8.0 7.6 7.3
6.8
USDINR 2.98%
6.6
6.0
4.9
4.0
4.0
2.8 3.1 3.0
2.3 SENSEX 26.01%
2.0 1.3 1.4
1.0
0.40 .2 0.3
0.0
2001 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gold -2.02%

3 Yr. Yield 5.12%

1Yr. Yield 4.28%

Retail Applications in IPO 2021

Company Name Number in Lakhs

Glenmark Life Sciences 39.5 Though the corrections during 2021 were few and far
Latent View Analytics 37.6 between, retail investors who would have waited for
Paras Defence And Space them may not have adopted the best strategy. At the
36.2
Technologies
same time, it is necessary for them to do their own risk
Tega Industries 34.8
profiling, draw up an asset allocation plan and invest in
Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem 32.4
stocks or mutual funds post enough study or advise from
C.E. Info systems limited 31.5
dependable sources. They also need to do a review of
MTAR Technologies 29.2 their overall assets/equity portfolio and do rebalancing at
Go Fashion 28.9 periodic intervals so that the goals they have set become
Reliance Power (2008) Heighest 47.8 more achievable.
 25
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Missing out on few days can be very costly

Growth of Rs. 10 lakh invested on January 1, 2009

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000
In INR

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
Invested Missing 5 Missing 10 Missing 20 Missing 30
all days best days best days best days best days

Investing at peaks also can be profitable, if you choose the right stocks

Returns (as on Nov 2021)

Data of Investment Nifty Subsequent Correction Abs (%) CAGR (%)

01-06-1997 1065 -24.10% 1695% 12.30%

01-02-2000 1550 -44.90% 1165% 11.90%

01-10-2007 5510 -58.90% 328% 9.80%

01-12-2010 5961 -23.80% 303% 10.60%

15-10-2016 8738 -10.50% 207% 15.40%

01-02-2020 11662 -34.70% 155% 27.90%

10-11-2021 18050

Source: Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

26
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Retail investors have been exploring passive, low cost, yet effective, investment vehicles such as ETFs. In addition,
they are also adapting to investing in overseas fund of funds and sovereign gold bonds (as an asset diversification
tool in an efficient way).

ETF AUM Trend (Rs. Cr) ETF AUM (% of Equity AUM)

400,000 35%

350,000 30%
300,000
25%
250,000
20%
200,000

150,000 15%
100,000
10%
50,000
5%
0
Feb-03
Jan-04

Sep-07

Feb-14
Jan-15

Sep-18
Aug-19
Mar-02

Dec-04
Nov-05
Oct-06

Oct-17

Jul-20
Aug-08
Jul-09

May-11
Apr-12
Mar-13

Dec-15
Nov-16

Jun-21
Jun-10

0%

Sep-19
Jan-08

Sep-09

Jan-13

Sep-14

Jan-18

May-21
Mar-02
Jan-03

Sep-04

May-06
Mar-07

May-11
Mar-12

May-16
Mar-17
Nov-03

Nov-08

Nov-13

Nov-18

Jul-20
Jul-05

Jul-10

Jul-15
Source: NAVIndia Source: NAVIndia; Note: AUM of open-ended equity schemes is considered

FoF Overseas AUM Trend (Rs Cr) No. of grams of Gold issued in SGBs

35,000 35000000
32351961
30,000
30000000
25,000
25000000 23162257
20,000
20000000
15,000
15000000
10,000 11387765
10000000
5,000 4903285 6524691 6161169
5000000
0 2030873
0
FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22*

Source: NAVIndia
 27
REWIND 2021 AND OUTLOOK 2022

Stock Analyst Educational Qualification Holding

Aditya Birla Cap Atul Karwa MMS Finance Yes
GAIL (India) Abdul Karim MBA Yes
Hindustan Zinc* Chintan Patel MSc Financial Mathematics No
Ipca Labs. Kushal Rughani MBA No
M&M Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Max Financial Nisha Sankhala MBA No
Max Healthcare Hemanshu Parmar ACA No
St Bk of India Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Tech Mahindra Abdul Karim MBA No
Zee Entertainmen Abdul Karim MBA No

Disclosure:
We, Abdul Karim (MBA), Kushal Rughani (MBA), Nisha Sankhala(MBA), Atul Karwa (MMS Finance), Chintan Patel MSc Financial Mathematics and Hemanshu
Parmar (ACA) authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views
about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no
part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her
relative or HDFC Securities Ltd does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or
its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the
Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – Yes of Abdul Karim for GAIL and Atul for Aditya Birla Cap
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
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HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, “Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East),
Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066
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HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, “Alpha”, Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 3075 3450 Compliance Binkle R. Oza Email: Phone: (022) 3045 3600
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