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Lean Thinking of L/T: The Confusion of Safety Time Lead Time
Lean Thinking of L/T: The Confusion of Safety Time Lead Time
-John Dewey
良好的定义问题,问题已经解决了一半。
- 约翰・杜威
During daily discussing, it is easy to make consensus with shorting Lead time, but a lot of friends feel confused
for complex holistic problem and transfer them to me .From this article, I want to discuss some hot subjects.
疑问转给了我,本文开始,我希望能和大家一起探讨其中一些引起大家热烈争论的问题。
Firstly, I ’d like to summarize the conclusions from the first two articles:
2. Rapid delivery ability is DCE , it will be obvious appeal to any market segment.
3. We must cut down Lead time, we can make significant improvement in short term and use minimum
investment.
首先我先总结一下上两篇文章的主要结论:
1 、 我们面临的核心问题是:没有决定性的竞争优势来持续获得订单。
2 、 项目的快交优势是决定性的竞争优势,对任何细分市场都会有明显的吸引力。
Bycutting down Lead time, we face not only one component or on projects lead time,but a systematic problem,
There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a
system approach.Then I want to discuss the systematic improve direction with all colleagues.
We all know, our product need to go through a lot of dependent work station, one finished, last can be started,
every process will add value till final delivery.In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. If we regard
lead time as aggregated score of relay race, thus every process likes the race player.To achieve good results we
我们都知道,产品要经过一系列相互依存的工序才能完成加工,每个工序都会使产品增值,最终完成产品的交付。为了要示
绩必须做到三件事:
第一、每个运动员有足够的个人能力;
第二、每个运动员的目标要一致:总时间最短;
第三、每个运动员都要发挥最大能力为整体目标做贡献;
Please think about why not let each player run 400m separately,and then add each score together?
Every player has lap time, but each player does not care about the lap time, and just trytheir best to run for team
goal. A player is slower, the next player quickly will win back some time, but everybody's speed is shared team,
every player to make some contribution, the entire team will have better results. This is a cooperative spirit of
sports.
接力赛中每位选手虽然都有单圈成绩,但每位选手并不关心单圈成绩,而只是尽力的快跑,为了团队共同目标奋力拼搏。一
位选手慢些,下一位选手快些就会争取回来一些时间,而大家的速度是团队共享的,每一位选手多做出些贡献,整个团队就
会有更好的成绩。这是一种合作的体育精神。
Unlike, let each player run 400m and the assessment is lap time respectively. If one player is not slowest one,
how much odds that run as quickly as possible? Very low! If each player cannot share their speed, so it is easy to
有多大呢?非常低!如果每位选手不能共享各自的速度,那么很容易形成一种指责的文化。
Attention : The really important is the relay baton, not the race player.
注意:真正重要的是接力棒,而不是运动员!
QC master Dr. Deming pointed out in <Out of the Crisis >: ” according to my experience, about 94% of the
problems from the system inherent reasons, 6% is special because of abnormal cause, it is hard to get good
在特殊因的杂音中改善很难得到效果“。
Scanningour system model base on relay race inspiration: if Lead time management is relay race forms? If not,
then we did not find the system reason and only improve in the noise.
系统因,而只是在杂音中优化。
Standish Group, a famous investigation institution in US, show the research result in project management
industryin 2000: the average Lead time beyond the original plan of 63%, the project has been completed 45%
average costs exceed the budget, the project has been completed 64% did not meet the delivery.
Not only our company, almost all project management enterprises in the world will face the same problem, the
most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal for the Olympic, they gave up the roof. Why
most projects cannot be controlled in budget, consistent with the initial plan to finish on time? Most participants
in the project management staff will say: too many customers change or alteration in the design, quality issues,
supplier tardiness or quality problem, priority too much controversy or commitment of resources often shortage
etc.
不只是我们公司,世界上几乎所有的项目管理型企业都会面临相同的问题,最著名的例子是在蒙特利尔,为奥林匹克
运动会而盖的体育馆放弃了屋顶。为什么大部分项目无法在预算内,符合初始计划准时完成?大部分参与项目管理的人员会
说:太多的客户变更或设计变更,品质问题,供应商拖期或质量问题,优先顺序太多争议,或承诺的资源经常会短缺等等。
Careful analysis of these problems has a characteristic, that is : Everything is not as we expected. Project
Yes, any project management enterprises have a huge magnitude of uncertainty. The question is: do n’tweknow it exists?
Of course we know, so how to deal with our uncertainty? Two roads, one is to eliminate all fluctuations, but it requires a
huge investment and it is difficult to be effective in a short time; another way is to set up the safety time to deal with the
uncertainty factors, and programming the commitment of the project Lead time, project management call it :Risk
Assessment.
没错,任何项目管理型企业的不确定性都很大。问题是:我们难道不知道它的存在吗?当然知道,那么我们怎么应对不确定
因素呢?两条路,一是我们消除所有的波动,但需要巨大的投入,且在短期内难以见效;另一条路是增加安全时间( Safety
time )来应对不确定性因素的发生,并以此规划出可以承诺的项目周期,项目管理称为风险评估( Risk assessment )。
Setting up safety time, avoids the possible risk, why is hard to reach a commitment? Where is the safe time effect? What
if this system management method we used leads to safety time wasted, unable to deal with uncertainty? If it is, we can
think about the system approach, let the viable commitment becomes true!
增加了安全时间,避开可能的风险,为什么还是很难达成承诺?安全时间的效果何在?会不会是我们所用的系统管理方
法造成了安全时间被浪费掉,以致于无法应对不确定性因素。如果是,我们就可以思考系统的改善方案,将不可行的承诺变
成可行!
Each task will finish on time then the whole project will finish on time ?It is right as a result,
试想这个问题:项目的每个任务都准时完成,整个项目就准时完成吗?如果作为结果来说是没有问题的,但
是如果作为假设,我们需要挑战一下。
We tend to judge actions and decisions not according to the impact on the whole picture even though that is what we
want to do, we tend to judge it according to the local impact.What we really want is the whole project finish on time ,not
the each task. But how are we going to do? Setting up OTD examination in every process, an assumption to do so, which
is to ensure that each task is completed on time is the best way to make the whole project is completed on time.
我们在评估行为和决策时,是根据它们对局部的影响,而不是对整体的影响。我们真正希望的是整个项目准时完成,而不是
成是让整个项目准时完成最好的方法。
Most of people ’ s behave is base how to measure them , since the KPI is OTD and the cost of each task, the
people will focus on each task OTD and cost. As a manager, on one hand he will charge of the on time delivery
of self-department, face of uncertainty he will put the safety time in his task. But on the other hand he will
continue to reduce costs, so he should cut down safety time, so that every manager is faced with a huge conflict.
和成本。对于一个管理者,一方面要对份内任务的交期负责,面对不确定性因素,他会把安全时间添加在自己的任务内。但
另一方面他还要持续地降低成本,所以他应该删减安全时间,这样每个管理者就面临着一个巨大的冲突:
If the actual delivery can be done earlier than the commitment, as a manager, will be finished ahead of time?
This time finished earlier, next time will have safety time enough? If the safety time is not enough, the next still
如果实际可以比交期更早完成的情况下,作为一个管理者,会提前完成吗?这次提前完成了,下次的安全时间还会足够吗?
如果安全时间不足够,下次还能达成交期的承诺吗?
Attention! This mentality is not negative, is very responsible work attitude, as a responsible person for the work,
must reach has pledged to do. In order to always reach the commitment, even if will have the ability to be
注意 !这种心态并不是消极的,恰恰是对工作非常负责的心态,作为一个对工作有责任感的人,必须要达成已承诺的事情。
为了每次都达成承诺,即使可以有能力可以提前完成,也会把安全时间浪费掉。
①
In fact, this is a very common phenomenon, it has another name: Parkinson's Law , the task in an
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事实上,这是一种非常普遍的现象,它有另一个名字: 帕金森定律 ,组织中工作的完成会拖延到它所能允许的最后一刻。
Due to Parkinson's Law, the safety time of each task will be wasted. The odds of each task ahead of schedule
may become very low, because of uncertainties, delays odds may become very high.
因为帕金森定律的存在,每个步骤的安全时间都会被浪费掉。相当于每一个任务提前完成的可能变得很低,由于不确定性因
素的存在,拖延的可能变得很高。
Safety time should be used to protect the whole project, not the individual tasks!
安全时间应该用来保护整个项目,而非各个任务!
Project Lead time improvement direction is: We must keep safety time available. Try to cut the safety time of
each task to effectively resist the Parkinson phenomenon, the safety time will be transferred at the end of the
project, let each task closely connected, each resourcing share the common safety time. At the same time we
need to change the KPI from each task for the whole project Lead time, like the relay race.
Note 1: Mr. C ・
Northcote Parkinson published < Parkinson ’ s Law> in 1958. By many years investigation and
research, he found it have big gap that same person doing the same thing. If the time is enough, it will slow
down the pace of work or additional work to get rid of all the time. So the conclusion is: Work will continue to
expand till the time and space is filled with. Parkinson's Law is an important law in the science of organizational
behavior, Parkinson law and Peter theory and Murphy's law is recognized as the "the three discovery in
Jonah Kou