Sampling, Estimation, Test of hypothesis

Sampling: Instead of every unit of the population, only a part of the population is studied and the
conclusion are drawn on that basis for the entire population is called sampling.
Example: A doctor examines a few drops of blood and draws conclusion about the blood constitution of
the whole body.
Complete enumeration survey or census method: Data are collected for each and every unit
belonging to the population or universe which is the complete set of items which are of interest in any
particular situation is called complete enumeration survey or census method.

Unbiased estimates: A statistic is called an unbiased estimator of a population parameter if the mean or
expectation of the statistic is equal to the parameter. The corresponding value of the statistic is then called an
unbiased estimate of the parameter.
Example: The mean X and variance Ŝ 2 are unbiased estimators of the population mean  and variance  2

if E ( X )   , E ( Sˆ 2 )   2 . The values of X and Ŝ 2 are then called unbiased estimates. However Ŝ is actually

biased estimator of  since in general E ( Sˆ )   .

Point estimates and interval estimates: An estimate of a population parameter given by a single
number is called a point estimate of the parameter. An estimate of a population parameter given by two
numbers between which the parameter may be considered to lie is called an interval estimate of the parameter.
Example: If we say that a distance is 5.28 meter, we are giving a point estimate. If on the other hand we say
that the distance is 5.28  0.03 meters, i.e. the distance lies between 5.25 and 5.31 meters, we are giving an
interval estimate.
A statement of the error or precision of an estimate is often called its reliability.

Test of hypothesis
Definition:
(i) Hypothesis: A hypothesis is defined by wabster as a tentative theory or supposition provisionally adopted
to explain certain facts and to guide in the investigation of others.

For example, Mr ‘X’ will be the next president of Bangladesh or the Mar’s is inhabitated by human beings.
These are hypothesis.

(ii) Simple hypothesis: If all the parameters are specified by any hypothesis then it is called simple hypothesis.
For example, if X ~ N (  , 10) , the hypothesis, H 0 :    0 is called a simple hypothesis.

(iii) Composite hypothesis: If all the parameters are not specified by any hypothesis then it is called composite
hypothesis.
 For Example: If X~N(  ,  2 ), the hypothesis, H 0 :    0 is called a composite hypothesis.

(iv) Null hypothesis: Null hypothesis is that hypothesis which is tested for all possible rejection under the
assumption that it is true. It is usually denoted by Ho.

(v) Alternative hypothesis: The hypothesis giving the statement against the null hypothesis is called the
alternative hypothesis. it is denoted by H1.

(vi) Level of significance: Intesting statistical hypothesis the hypothesis is declared to be true if the calculated
probability exceed a given value  and it is considered false if the calculated probability is less than
 .Hence  is called the level of significance.

(vii) Significant test: In testing a statistical hypothesis if the calculated probability is less than  indicating
that the hypothesis is false the result is termed significant.
It is commonly accepted convention to consider a result significant if the calculated probability is less
than   0.05 and to term it highly significant if the calculated probability is less than   0.01 .

(viii) Power of a test: The power of a statistical test is defined as the probability of correctly rejecting an
untrue hypothesis. Let  be the probability of type II error. Then 1   is known as power of the test.

# Type I and Type II Error: When a statistical hypothesis is tested there are four possible results:
(1) The hypothesis is true but our test rejects it.
(2) The hypothesis is false but our test accepts it.
(3) The hypothesis is true and our test accepts it.
(4) The hypothesis is false and our test rejects it.
Obviously the first two possibilities leads to errors. If we reject a hypothesis when it should be accepted
(Possible no.1) we say that Type I error has been made. On the other hand if we accept a hypothesis when it
should be rejected (Possible no.2) we say that Type II error has been made. (In either case a wrong decision or
error in judgment has occurred).

Two tailed test: When the critical region of a test lies at both ends of the distribution of the test statistics
then it is called a two tailed test.

Rejected region
Accepted region Rejected region

 z  z
2 2

One tailed test: When the critical region of a test lies at one end of the distribution of the test statistics
then it is called a one tailed test. One tailed tests may be left tailed or right tailed.

Rejected region

- Z
2
 The following table gives critical values of z for both one tailed and two tailed tests at various levels of
significance. Critical values of z for other levels of significance are found by use of the table of normal curves
areas:
Level of significance 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.005 0.0002
Critical value of z for one tailed test -1.28 -1.645 -2.33 -2.58 -2.88
or, 1.28 or, 1.645 or, 2.33 or, 2.58 or 2.88
Critical value of z for two tailed tests -1.645 -1.96 -2.58 -2.81 -3.08
and 1.645 and 1.96 and 2.58 and 2.81 and 3.08

Example: The mean lifetime of a sample of 100 tubelights produced by a company is found to be 1580 hours
with standard deviation of 90 hours. Test the hypothesis that mean lifetime of the tubes produced by the
company is 1600 hr.

Solution: The null hypothesis is that there is no significant difference between the sample mean and
hypothetical population mean, i.e, H 0 :    0
and H 1 :    0
x s
Now, z  where  x 
x n
x

s
n
1580  1600
  2.22
90
100
The critical value is z  1.96 for a two tailed test at 5% level of significance. [100-90=10, 10/2=5%]
since the computed value of z  2.22 falls in the rejection region. we reject the null hypothesis.
Hence the mean lifetime of the tubes produced by the company may not be 1600 hrs.