Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A 810 Specimen Tests
A 810 Specimen Tests
PLEASE NOTE
Logistics students will have a test similar to this one. It will last two hours and
students attempt any 4 out of the 6 questions.
Planning students will have a two section paper, each section meant to take one
hour. Section A will give a choice of 2 out of 4 questions, which will be similar
to the first 4 questions below. Section B will give a choice of 1 out of 3
questions and Professor White will be circulating specimen questions.
Double-decker buses would give 2.6 years of return if the market grows
and 3.2 years if it does not. ‘Bendy’ buses give 4.9 years of return
because fare evasion is a problem. If the government pass suitable laws
then the years of return comes down to 1.9 .The probability of this
happening is 60%.
2. A coach company owns a fleet of 84 coaches. Last week the average cost
of fuel used by a coach was £1.38 per km with standard deviation £0.21
per km. Since the coaches were purchased, 8 of them have developed
serious mechanical faults.
(a) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the average fuel cost per
km for a coach. Hence comment on the manager’s claim that last
week was exceptional and the true average is only £1.25 per km.
(5 marks)
3. For each of the last 24 months, the number of delays during the month to
an underground train system was recorded together with the percentage
of staff absent from work (‘absent%’), the number of cancelled buses in
the city during the month (‘buses’) and the number of defective trains
during the month (‘deftrains’).
(b) The number of delays was regressed against each of the predictors
alone:
Compare these regressions with each other and with the original three
predictor model. Write out with reasons which of them you consider to
be the ‘best’ model. Use your suggested model to forecast the number of
delays during a month in which 40% of staff are absent, there are 70
cancelled buses and 44 defective trains. Discuss any other regressions
which could be performed.
(9 marks)
(c) Following a delay, the trains are assumed to form a simple queue to
enter a station. If trains arrive to the queue at an average rate of
3.2 per minute and the station can process trains at an average
rate of 4.1 per minute, calculate the expected number of trains in
the queue. Comment on the assumption that the trains form a
simple queue.
(9 marks)
4. The number of cruise liners arriving at Ruritania over the last few years
was:
(c) The number of liners for the first 5 months of this year were:
5. [Logistics only]
A bus manufacturer uses 500 electrical switches every week at a
constant rate. The storage cost of a switch is 4p per week and the
ordering cost for any number of them is £20 . There is a lead time of
half a week between placing orders and receiving delivery.
(b) The manufacturer can save 4p per switch by placing orders for
2,000 or more at the same time. Determine whether ordering
2,000 switches at a time gives a cheaper stock control system
than the one you described in part (a). (10 marks)
(c) Assume now that demand is random in time with average 500
switches per week and lost sales penalty 8p per switch. Advise the
manufacturer on a least cost stock control strategy.
(7 marks)
4TRN7A7/8 SPECIMEN TEST 1 6/18
6. [Logisitics only]
The activities which have to be performed at the end of each working
day to a railway locomotive are as follows:
Determine the new shortest total project time and the minimum
cost of achieving this.
(8 marks)
4TRN7A7/8 SPECIMEN TEST 1 7/18
FORMULA SHEET
1. Expectation
Other multipliers:
3. Binomial Distribution
–λ*t
P(waiting longer than t) = e
p ×(1 −p)
95% sampling error for a proportion is ±1.96 ×
n
7. Simple Queues
r
P( r or more items in the system) = ρ
2
Expected number in the queue = ρ / (1 - ρ )
8. Exponential Smoothing
2* P*d
Economic order quantity, EOQ:
S
PLEASE NOTE
Logistics students will have a test similar to this one. It will last two hours and
students attempt any 4 out of the 6 questions.
Planning students will have a two section paper, each section meant to take one
hour. Section A will give a choice of 2 out of 4 questions, which will be similar
to the first 4 questions below. Section B will give a choice of 1 out of 3
questions and Professor White will be circulating specimen questions.
(b) Analyse your tree diagram and hence advise the company on where
to advertise to achieve the largest audience remembering that it
can adopt one of various attitudes to risk.
(10 marks)
2. The times 344 drivers left their cars in a car park were measured. Here
is part of a computer report on them:
(b) At present, the car park does not admit cars towing caravans. It is
thought that if this restriction is lifted, 10% of arriving cars would
be towing a caravan. Calculate a 95% prediction interval for the
number of cars with caravans when there are 165 cars parked.
(10 marks)
3. The numbers of ships arriving each year to unload cargo at a port are
observed to be:
A regression of the number of ships against the year gave the following
results:
(a) Discuss the overall conclusions that can be drawn from this
analysis. Write down a regression model for the number of ships
arriving each year and use the model to make a forecast of the
number for next year, year 10.
(10 marks)
(c) The port authorities are planning a new dock to handle an average
of 16 ships per week. Use your forecast to predict the average
number of ships arriving per week assuming that there are 50
working weeks in a full year. Use simple queue formulae to predict
the average number of ships in the queue and the average time a
ship will spend in the system. Hence comment on the plan.
(10 marks)
4TRN7A7/8 SPECIMEN TEST 2 13/18
(c) The trend estimate for the first quarter of 2006 is 40.7 reports.
Produce a forecast for this quarter based on your previous answer.
(5 marks)
4TRN7A7/8 SPECIMEN TEST 2 14/18
Demand for ‘Healit’ aspirin in a hospital averages 7.2 cases per week. It
costs 15p per week to store a case and £5 to place an order for any
number of cases. Delivery occurs exactly one week after an order is
placed.
(b) Assume now that demand is random. The penalty cost of not having
a case of aspirin when it is needed is £3 because a special delivery
has to be made. Advise the hospital on a least cost stock control
strategy.
(8 marks)
(a) The distance between two stations on the London Underground can
be measured by the number of stations a passenger passes through
in travelling between them on the same line. Here is a distance
matrix for a selection of stations with dashes showing that the two
stations are not on the same line:
O K H V B
Oxford Circus (O) 0 - 2 2 -
Knightsbridge (K) - 0 6 - -
Holborn (H) 2 6 0 - 5
Victoria (V) 2 - - 0 -
Bethnal Green (B) - - 5 - 0
(b) A haulage company runs 5 ton and 10 ton trucks. The manager
wants a total carrying capacity of at least 275 tons from at most
36 trucks. It costs £160 per day to run a 5 ton truck and £240
per day to run a 10 ton truck. Do not solve this problem but
explain how the ‘Solver’ facility on an Excel spreadsheet can be
used to find the numbers of 5 ton trucks and 10 ton trucks the
company should have in order to minimise the total cost.
(10 marks)
4TRN7A7/8 SPECIMEN TEST 2 16/18
FORMULA SHEET
1. Expectation
Other multipliers:
3. Binomial Distribution
–λ*t
P(waiting longer than t) = e
p ×(1 −p)
95% sampling error for a proportion is ±1.96 ×
n
7. Simple Queues
r
P( r or more items in the system) = ρ
2
Expected number in the queue = ρ / (1 - ρ )
8. Exponential Smoothing
2* P*d
Economic order quantity, EOQ:
S