< # BISWA 3 > A BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING APPROACH TO RAINFALL RUNOFF

MODELLING
Supervisor: Biswa Bhattacharya (B.Bhattacharya@unesco-ihe.org), Professor: Dimitri

Solomatine

Introduction
Rainfall runoff models are frequently used to simulate runoff from known, synthetic or design rainfall
data. Such models can be deterministic or stochastic, or, physically based or lumped conceptual
models. Due to the complexity of the process involved and the simplistic approach adopted in some of
the models often different models provide very different runoff of a catchment. If measured data is
available then an analysis of accuracy of the different models can be investigated but still over a long
period of time the betterment of a model over the others cannot be easily concluded. Moreover, at
ungauged locations we are often unsure of which model result to use. A way out is seen in integrating
the different model outputs, perhaps with its uncertainty bounds.

Objectives
The main research question: Can a Bayesian probabilistic approach be adopted in combining runoffs
predicted by multiple models?
The objective of the research is to develop a methodology to combine multiple predictions of runoffs
by multiple models. An additional objective will be to carry out an uncertainty analysis of the runoff
prediction.

Methodology
A Bayesian probabilistic approach to combine runoff simulated by multiple models will be carried out
and validated with a case study. The steps could be:

(i) A literature review to ascertain the existing approaches of Bayesian multi-model

framework and to assess their fundamental differences with the present concept.

(ii) Develop the mathematical framework. Consider for a catchment the measured discharge
at the outlet (or at a location) is given by where
x,y: denotes the location and t: time

Consider that a set of rainfall-runoff models provide the discharge at x,y and they are denoted as 1

, 2 , 3 ,....., where there are n number of models used to predict runoff at x,y.

(iii) Develop a Bayesian probabilistic framework to use the estimated prior probability and the
outputs of different models for location x,y to come up with a probabilistic runoff value.

(iv) Compare the mean runoff values and present the advantages and limitations.

(v) Now prepare an uncertainty estimate

(vi) Develop a case study. Develop models using HEC-HMS, NAM, some other
simple modelling tools. One possibility could be to use published results of rainfall
runoff modelling using different tools for which measured data is also available.

Expected output
1. A methodology for Bayesian multi-model averaging for rainfall-runoff modelling; 2. Case-studies 3.
MSc thesis, a peer-reviewed publication.

References
Liang, Z., Wang, D., Guo, Y., Zhang, Y., and Dai, R. (2013). ”Application of Bayesian Model Averaging
Approach to Multimodel Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasting.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 18(11), 1426–1436.