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FEATURES
16 18 Steps to Six Sigma Project Success 34 A Match Made in Maintenance Heaven
This step-by-step guide will help Six Sigma A case study showcases how one organization
practitioners align their projects to their from the oil and gas industry combined quality
organization’s business strategy and and maintenance management programs to
guarantees that the project stays headed achieve equipment reliability and drive its
in the right direction. maintenance philosophy.
by Marcelo Machado Fernandes, Jennifer by Ray Stoute
Hurst, Jiju Antony, João Batista Turrioni
and Messias Borges Silva 42 Slam Dunk
There’s a new way of using statistics and
24 Mining Matters analytics to identify undervalued professional
Six Sigma methods can provide a rock-solid basketball players and build a winning roster
way to help mining companies unearth in fantasy basketball leagues.
metrics and analytics to help make their by George Recck, I. Elaine Allen,
operations safer. Adam Kershner, Zachary Mittelmark
by Rajeev Chadha and Julia E. Seaman
INSIDE
February 2019 EXCLUSIVES
VOLUME 52 ● NUMBER 2 at qualityprogress.com
More on Mining
Additional figures to illustrate how Six
Sigma was used to assess the risks in
underground mining operations, the
topic of “Mining Matters” (pp. 24-33)
On the Radar
More graphics to supplement this
month’s Try This Today column
(“Risk on the Radar,” p. 64).
Digital Option
Experience QP in its digital format—just
another way to access the magazine
when you’re on the go.
6 8 15 52
Quality Progress (ISSN 0033-524X) is published monthly by the American Society for Quality, 600 N. Plankinton Ave., Milwaukee, WI 53203. Editorial and advertising
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To promote discussion of issues in the field of quality and ensure coverage of all responsible points of view, Quality Progress publishes articles representing conflicting and
minority views. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily of ASQ or Quality Progress. Use of the ASQ logo in advertisements does not necessarily
constitute endorsement of that particular product or service by ASQ.
WORKING IN HARMONY
“Statistics Spotlight: The Music of the Spheres” (January 2019, pp. 44-45) is a great article. It
is an example of metaphor becoming model. I particularly appreciate the tune-up exercise. It
not only drives alignment, but it also permits errors as vehicles for learning to improve the
harmony. Thank you!
Andy Moysenko, Chelmsford, MA
IMPROVING PERCEPTIONS
“Standard Issues: Prove Your Worth” (December 2018, pp. 65-69)
tackles the main challenge faced by employees and the person
leading an organization’s quality assurance (QA) program. The
topics covered in the column call for an entire book. The column
THIS MONTH'S QUESTION degradation line fitted on the stability data and on
the appropriate statistical interval.
Stability studies are Establishing and monitoring stability data across the product life cycle
an integral part of ensures product quality and minimizes patient risk. Hence, a systematic
any pharmaceutical approach must be adopted in the presentation and evaluation of the stability
information. The stability information should include, as appropriate, results
manufacturing system.
from the physical, chemical, biological and microbiological tests, including
Monitoring this data those related to attributes of the dosage form (for example, dissolution rate
across the life cycle of for solid oral dosage forms).
the product is equally The adequacy of the mass balance must be assessed. Factors that can
cause an apparent lack of mass balance must be considered, including, for
important. What
example, the mechanisms of degradation and the stability-indicating capa-
statistical tools should be bility and inherent variability of the analytical procedures.
part of a stability study? Where applicable, an appropriate statistical method should be
employed to analyze the long-term primary stability data. The purpose
of this analysis is to establish, with a high degree of confidence, a retest
OUR RESPONSE period or shelf life during which a quantitative attribute will remain within
acceptance criteria for all future batches manufactured, packaged and
Stability of a pharmaceutical product must stored under similar circumstances.
be established before seeking regulatory To provide a valid statistical inference for the estimated retest period
approval for commercialization. The pur- or shelf life, the statistical method used for data analysis must consider
pose of the stability study is to establish shelf the stability study design. The statistical evaluation of the pharmaceutical
life and to propose a retest period of a drug stability data must include regression analysis, analysis of variance, general
product. A complete stability study includes linear model and the computation of several statistical intervals (confidence,
a long-term stability study performed at prediction and tolerance).
intended storage conditions and an accel- Regression analysis is considered an appropriate approach to evaluating
erated stability study performed under the stability data for a quantitative attribute and establishing a retest period
stressed conditions (at higher temperatures or shelf life. The nature of the relationship between an attribute and time will
and relative humidity). determine whether data should be transformed for linear regression analysis.
The shelf life of a pharmaceutical product The relationship can be represented by a linear or nonlinear function on an
can be defined as the time the drug product arithmetic or logarithmic scale. In some cases, a nonlinear regression can
is expected to remain within the specifica- better reflect the true relationship.
tions defined for its purity and strength. However, nonlinear and other special linear models (square root, 1/x, log,
For an attribute known to decrease exponential, polynomials) generally are avoided unless specifically indicated
with time, International Council for Har- from the data, historical experience or a careful analysis of the residuals.
monization of Technical Requirements for Finally, stability is a key consideration when setting product specification
Pharmaceuticals for Human Use guidelines acceptance limits. Stability and rates of degradation must be compared to
state that the shelf life is calculated as the the upper specification limit and lower specification limit during early devel-
time at which the lower, one-sided, 95% opment and throughout the product life cycle.
confidence limit for the mean degradation
REFERENCE
curve intersects the acceptance criterion. 1. International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for
For an attribute known to increase with Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH), “Guidance for Industry: Q1A(R2) Stability
time, the shelf life is calculated as the Testing of New Drug Substances and Products,” ICH, www.fda.gov/downloads/drugs/
guidances/ucm073369.pdf.
time at which the upper confidence limit
intersects the acceptance criterion.1
Hence, the estimation of pharmaceuti- This response was written by Suresh Anaganti, CEO, Lab to Pharmacy LLC,
cal drug quality is based on the adequate Palmyra, PA.
CUSTOMER SERVICE
Shape Up or
Ship Out Package delivery is playing a bigger role
than ever in customer satisfaction
The days of seven-day shipping are shoppers agree their loyalty to a brand is be able to correct a deliv-
long over. Today, it’s all about next-day influenced by the organization’s shipping ery address after placing an
or even same-day delivery. We live in a abilities. The survey also found that 84% order, and 53.2% thought they
time in which we can order something would cut ties with a brand if they had just should be able to redirect a
on Amazon.com at lunch and reasonably one bad delivery experience—a whopping package after it shipped.2
expect it to be waiting at our front door 34% increase from 2017.1 Meanwhile, when there’s a
when we get home from work. Not only do customers want faster delivery delay, 52% of customers
A 2018 survey conducted by Convey, delivery, but they also want more flexible expect the organization to make
a delivery experience management orga- delivery. For example, in 2018, nine up for it by refunding or dis-
nization, found that an astonishing 98% of out of 10 people thought they should counting the price of shipping.3
Meeting demand
These factors have made the delivery world a lot “Modern e-commerce
more cutthroat in recent years. According to Con- retailers need a solution
vey’s chief marketing officer, Kirsten Newbold-Knipp, for delivery as fast as
Amazon is to blame. two hours.”
“Delivery expectations have clearly increased —Andrew Chung
year-over-year as Amazon continues to raise the bar
and customers take the bait,” said Newbold-Knipp.
“Today, simply tracking a package isn’t enough.
Retailers and brands that want to thrive need to
invest in people, processes and tools that positively
impact last-mile delivery and customer loyalty.” 4
With increased customer expectations and higher- UPS and FedEx see rates rise by 32%. Rates
than-ever competition among retailers, how do No matter how quickly a for FedEx’s similar Smart-
organizations meet customer demands? According retailer packages and ships Post arrangement are also
to Andrew Chung, a journalist, the answer involves an order, part of the process going up. The USPS also
that last mile. still depends on the mail raised its rates this past
“Modern e-commerce retailers need a solution for delivery service. Two of those October, with its Parcel
delivery as fast as two hours,” Chung said. “Last- services—UPS and FedEx— Select package rates rising
mile warehouses facilitate the movement of goods in have recently imposed a 4.9% between 9% and 12%.”10
the supply chain to the final destination. Being closer average rate hike for 2019. That adds up quickly—in
to the consumer decreases supply-chain costs while The carriers have imposed the 2018, UPS alone averaged 31
minimizing the time to complete delivery.”5 same rate increase every year million deliveries each day.11
With 41% of the U.S. retail market share, Amazon for the past 10 years. How- Although the rate increases
has set a precedent for fast delivery.6 It’s no longer ever, it’s targeted this year at won’t be detrimental to
a luxury, but an expectation, which makes it increas- residential customers, and the organizations like Amazon—
ingly difficult for smaller retailers to keep up. increases could significantly which charges an annual fee
“While consumer expectations around delivery impact free shipping.9 for free shipping—smaller
are rapidly increasing, their delivery experiences Journalist Rich Duprey organizations will feel the
are declining,” Chung said. “Fast delivery is import- reported that what will impact impact. According to Spend
ant to 99% of U.S. consumers when making online free shipping the most is the Management Experts, a trans-
purchases. At the same time, an increasing number rate hike UPS imposed on portation spend management
of consumers feel frustrated with the lack of profes- SurePost, which is used in col- consultant, Parcel Select,
sionalism and accuracy when having items delivered. laboration with the U.S. Postal SmartPost and SurePost are
For retailers looking to exceed expectations, there Service (USPS) for faster last- the services retailers use most
is a large opportunity to capture customer loyalty mile deliveries. for free shipping.12
when delivery is done right.”7 “For packages over one
Despite these challenges, there are some things pound, rates are rising by The future of delivery
organizations can incorporate into their last-mile 9%; for those under a pound, So how can retailers afford to
facilities that can help, such as locating logistics they’re going up 9.34%,” offer fast and free delivery?
facilities near major roadways and cities, and Duprey said. “Surcharges The answer is technology.
ensuring the facilities can adequately house the to certain rural or diffi-
organization’s products.8 cult-to-access locations will continued on page 10
In ANAB to ANSI
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Rich Dubrey, “Will UPS and FedEx Rate Hikes Doom
Free Shipping?” Fool, Jan. 1, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/
yde3ys24. ASQ sold its share of ownership in the ANSI-ASQ National
10. Ibid. Accreditation Board LLC (ANAB) to American National Stan-
11. FreightWaves “Parcel Carriers Shine During Peak Delivery dards Institute (ANSI) in late 2018.
Period, Firm’s Data Shows,” Benzinga, Jan. 7, 2019, https:// ANAB had been owned equally by ANSI and ASQ since 2005.
tinyurl.com/ybexlfnd. The purchase results in ANAB becoming a wholly owned subsid-
12. Dubrey, “Will UPS and FedEx Rate Hikes Doom Free iary of ANSI, registered as a separate legal entity, and renamed
Shipping?” see reference 9. the ANSI National Accreditation Board (ANAB).
13. Hamza Shaban, “Amazon Is Issued Patent for Delivery While ANSI and ANAB will continue business as usual in the
Drones That Can React to Screaming Voices, Flailing
near term, ANSI intends to move its accreditation of conformity
Arms,” Switch, March 22, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/
y7hh2vl2. assessment bodies into ANAB under the auspices of ANSI own-
14. Lauren Thomas, “Walmart Taps Udlev for Latest ership, creating a single entity to lead accreditation services.
Driverless Car Tests to Deliver Groceries,” CNBC, Jan. 8, For more information about ANSI and the ANSI National
2019, https://tinyurl.com/y6w5sgfr. Accreditation Board, visit www.ansi.org/accreditation/anab.
Jami Kovach
QUALITY-RELATED current position education
The Leapfrog Group, a national nonprofit health- destructive evaluation (NDE) The International Accred-
care advocacy group, recently released its annual technologies, and bridges itation Forum (IAF) just
list of top U.S. hospitals based on safety and quality gaps in NDE research, finished celebrating its 25th
measurements. engineering and technology anniversary last year. IAF
In 2018, a total of 118 hospitals were recognized transfer. Find more details at is the world association
because of performance in different areas of hos- www.asnt.org. of conformity assessment
pital care, including preventing infections, reducing accreditation bodies and
C-sections, using technology to ensure safer care, The 24th annual American other bodies interested in
and instituting leadership policies and practices. Productivity and Quality conformity assessment in
“Leapfrog is proud to recognize the recipients of Center Knowledge Manage- the fields of management
our most elite award for safety and quality,” said ment Conference will be held systems, products, services,
Leah Binder, president and CEO of the Leapfrog April 29 to May 3 in Hous- personnel and other similar
Group. “We’re encouraged by the hard work of top ton. Visit www.apqc.org/ programs of conformity
hospitals, as well as all of the hospitals that compete apqcs-2019-knowledge- assessment. It was founded
for this award. Their transparency and determination management-conference in January 1993 by repre-
delivers the best possible care in their communities.” for details on speakers and sentatives of accreditors of
The states of Florida, California, New Jersey and the more than 20 practi- quality system certification
Texas were each home to 12 or more hospitals that tioner-led sessions. bodies from Australia, New
received the Leapfrog distinction. Zealand, Canada, Japan,
The National Association for Mexico, the Netherlands,
Healthcare Quality has set the United Kingdom and the
For a complete list, visit https://tinyurl.com/ Oct. 20-26 as Healthcare United States. ANAB (then
leapfrog-top-hosp.
Quality Week to mark the known as RAB) was among
contributions professionals the founders of IAF.
E D U C AT I O N
What’s Your
Hedgehog?
How to determine your ideal career path by Darrell Baldock
I consider myself an expert when it comes to career devel- its day searching for food and maintaining its home.
opment. Why? Because my definition of an expert is someone When the fox attacks, the hedgehog rolls up into a ball
who has tried and failed several times. Let me explain: and is protected by its sharp spines. The fox retreats to
Although I have had my share of successes, my career path the forest to plan its next attack. This becomes a daily
wasn’t a straight line and at times wasn’t very fulfilling. It left ritual and the outcome never changes—the hedgehog
me wanting more. It was good, but it wasn’t great. always wins. The hedgehog isn’t stupid. In fact, just the
In his book Good to Great,1 Jim Collins talks about the opposite—it understands the brilliance of simplicity.
hedgehog concept, which states that the world is made up In his book, Collins shows how the success
of hedgehogs and foxes. The fox knows many things, but the of some great organizations is based on simple
hedgehog knows one big thing. concepts. We can apply the hedgehog concept to
The fox uses its cunning and speed to surreptitiously attack career development by constructing a work life that
the hedgehog. But the hedgehog is a simple creature, spending meets three tests:
Clean-Up
Time by Kate Jakubas
Quality knowledge isn’t widely considered a critical startup skill, but lean Continuous improvement
and Six Sigma helped me grow my manufacturing business over an order of and continuous growth
magnitude in two years. In May, we moved from our original
I founded Meliora Cleaning Products in 2013 after a decade of working for 1,500-square-foot factory to a space four
larger manufacturing organizations. During that time, I learned about and used times bigger, and we are fulfilling cus-
lean and Six Sigma, and became an ASQ-certified Green Belt and Black Belt. The tomer orders 10 times larger in volume
certifications were mostly an academic exercise. They ticked the “professional than those just two years ago.
development” box and gave me something to feature on my résumé. Occasion- We recently had the pleasure of tak-
ally, I applied Six Sigma or lean tools to a project, saving the organization money ing personal friends who also are lean
or improving quality. manufacturing engineers on a tour of our
Now that I own a small business, eliminating waste and improving quality isn’t plant. We are now implementing further
just an interesting exercise—it’s critical to the health of my business and paying changes based on their observations.
my employees on time. I use my quality training every day. Without a large staff to conduct internal
audits, we are lucky to have outsiders
5S and kanban evaluate our processes so we can con-
The tool and method that have helped me the most are 5S and kanban. tinue improving.
In our factory, 5S means keeping things as orderly as possible and making We will continue to make improvements
sure everyone knows where everything is. A bilingual production staff has been and look for ways to implement the best
especially helpful in encouraging us to reduce the number of verbose written parts of big-organization quality at our
procedures in favor of photos, color coding and other visual factory manage- tiny manufacturing facility.
ment systems.
Kanban is our system for keeping product flowing. We do the bare minimum
when it comes to scheduling production and don’t forecast based on anticipated
product mix. Instead, we circulate labeled trays. Each finished product is stored
Kate Jakubas is the
on labeled trays. Trays are emptied to fill customer orders, and an empty tray founder of Meliora
indicates that it’s time to make more of that product. This allows us to use our Cleaning Products
time most effectively and only make enough product to keep up with current in Chicago, and an
advisor to William
customer orders. Hooper Consulting
Our system is extremely basic, but also extremely effective. We improve our in Indiana. She earned a master’s degree
systems by adding, subtracting and adjusting kanban amounts. Rarely is there in environmental engineering at the Illinois
Institute of Technology in Chicago. Jakubas
a day that colored electrical tape isn’t used to identify a storage area or product- is a member of ASQ and an ASQ-certified Six
specific piece of equipment. Sigma Green Belt and Black Belt.
Just the
Facts
Quality profes-
sionals tend to
struggle with
selecting and
prioritizing Six
Sigma projects.
Recognizing the
opportunity, the
authors created a
Six Sigma project
portfolio manage-
ment model to
help quality pro-
fessionals select
appropriate proj-
ects and ensure
their success.
Selection and prioritization of Six Sigma projects (SSP) is to the CEO’s staff.5 For example, MBBs should be
one of the most frequently discussed issues in Six Sigma sitting at the table with senior executives to properly
literature. (“Six Sigma literature” refers to the references listed understand their voices and translate them into
at the end of this article.) If an SSP is poorly selected, positive significant projects, as well as walking the processes
results are delayed and frustration may build throughout the (gemba walk) to collect improvement opportunities
organization. This is one of the main factors separating success- straight from the shop floor.
ful SSPs from other types of improvement projects.1,2 Step two is focused on the MBB filtering out
To explore this research opportunity, the project portfolio improvement initiatives that clearly have no link to
management (PPM) theory was used to cover not only project the organization’s business strategy,6 such as those
selection, but also other important elements of an SSP, such as not associated with common and unknown causes,7
project prioritization, resource allocation, constant performance as well as immeasurable problems8 and problems
monitoring, risk management and project portfolio balancing. better solved with a different method.
The dynamism created by PPM is particularly important for To illustrate this topic, let’s look at an example
Six Sigma. SSP selection must be a dynamic process,3 so it is from a global automotive organization. The orga-
useful to identify a fragment of PPM theory and use it—along nization was facing a quality outbreak related to
with the Six Sigma literature that discusses criteria for project the diameter of copper cables in a wiring harness
selection—to build a conceptual model for Six Sigma project production line. The plant manager suggested open-
portfolio management (SSPPM). ing a lean Six Sigma project to contain the problem.
Proposed here is a framework for SSPPM that can be used In this type of emergency, the recommendation is to
by any Six Sigma practitioner aiming to maximize the chances act using a task force or immediate kaizen approach
of not only selecting the right projects, but also guaranteeing rather than the structured define, measure, analyze,
they are aligned with business strategy, properly progressing improve, control method.
to deadlines and reaching the organization’s expected results. Step three is to classify the PSSPs. The most
common categories are Green Belt (low-medium
SSPPM model complexity) and Black Belt (medium-high com-
Many articles from Six Sigma literature were used as a starting plexity) projects.9 Any other justified form of
point for the SSPPM model. However, it is important to rein- categorization can be used, such as product line,
force that our collective practical experience also contributed customers affected or departments involved.10
significantly to designing this 18-step SSPPM framework. If the organization has a Yellow Belt (YB) pro-
Figure 1 (p. 20) presents the SSPPM conceptual model, which gram, low-complexity projects can be conducted
is structured in three phases: the main process (steps one using the SSPPM method. Nielsen Media Research
through 12), auxiliary process one (steps 13 through 16) and (Nielsen), the global market research organization,
auxiliary process two (steps 17 and 18). Table 1 depicts the con- implemented this approach, and a YB wave recently
nection between the main steps and components of the SSPPM took place in the organization: More than 20 associ-
model and the Six Sigma literature. ates were certified as YBs, and six projects brought
Main process. Step one of the main process is the potential significant improvement to the organization in terms
SSP (PSSP) continuous screening. The Master Black Belt (MBB) of quality and cycle time.
or Six Sigma program leader must provide and coordinate differ- Step four of the model must be carried out by the
ent ways of identifying new continuous improvement initiatives Belt who will lead the project. At this stage, the Belt
to be evaluated as potential new improvement projects.4 should consider information related to the levels and
The MBB should avoid portfolio biases by drawing on sources behavior of the problem to be analyzed. At this step,
that are as varied as possible, from workers on the shop floor the project manager also should estimate resources
required to develop the project, as well as the base-
line cost associated with not solving the problem.11
At minimum, the size of the problem should be esti-
If a Six Sigma project is poorly selected, positive mated or, in some cases, the baseline stability should
results are delayed and frustration may build be evaluated and the initial baseline sigma level
throughout the organization. should be estimated.
SSPPM literature
Cheng (2009)
Authors
SSPPM steps
Potential Six Sigma project continuous X X
screening
Potential Six Sigma project pre-evaluation X X X
Potential Six Sigma project categorization X X
Potential Six Sigma project detailed X
information gathering
Potential Six Sigma project evaluation X X X X X X X
(individual)
Potential Six Sigma project evaluation X
(interaction)
Potential Six Sigma project prioritization X
Six Sigma project portfolio balancing X
Six Sigma project portfolio resource X
allocation
Six Sigma project portfolio graphical X
representation
Six Sigma project portfolio final adjustments X
Six Sigma project portfolio presentation X
Business strategy evaluation X
Significant change in business strategy X
evaluation
Six Sigma project portfolio selection criteria X
(and criteria weights) reevaluation
Current Six Sigma project portfolio X
reevaluation
Six Sigma project portfolio performance X X X
evaluation
Feedback on Six Sigma project portfolio X X
according to its performance
5
After steps 11 and 12, the
4 Avoid
Simple lean proper potential changes
concepts/tools 3 must be implemented in the
2 bubble chart.
1 According to the Six Sigma
0
literature, SSPPM is dynamic
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 in many ways. For example, it:
Complexity ++ Continuously evaluates
Latin America India SEANAP Europe
improvement initiatives.
++ Allows for terminating or
Greater China NA East NA West halting current projects.
++ Alters criteria or how crite-
ria are weighed according
NA = North America SEANAP = South East Asia, North Asia and Pacific to changes in business
Note: This model was adapted from Nielsen Media Research.
strategy.
Management can rebalance
of Microsoft Office, so the fact that files to reinforce that portfolio management a new portfolio based on how
can be easily shared with other associates is dynamic, so at any time, additional well current projects are per-
increases the chance of proper awareness resources can be added or reduced forming. Therefore, portfolio
on the first version of the Six Sigma project according to the portfolio’s performance. communication should not
portfolio (SSPP). Step 10 is the graphical representation be the last step in the main
Step eight is related to portfolio balanc- of the SSPP. The objective is to offer the process. Rather, it is a task
ing. It helps the MBB decide which projects best view of the project’s characteristics, that should be performed
will receive the organization’s financial scope, risk and potential benefits. Often, whenever the portfolio under-
resources, per category.21 It primarily con- it takes the format of a bubble chart, with goes a modification. Indeed, if
siders the organization’s strategic needs. each project represented with bubbles someone changes a portfo-
This is the point at which the word “poten- in a two-dimensional scenario. The axes lio’s structure without giving
tial” is dropped and the project is referred can be complexity and effect (potential proper notice to everyone
to thereafter as an SSP. Indeed, this step gains), for example. The size and color of involved, the expectations of
is where the first version of the portfolio is the bubble also may have meaning, such the project team and stake-
presented to the organization. as region, development time or resources holders may diverge, resulting
Step nine refers to resource allocation to involved.23 Figure 2 is a sample SSPP in a poor contribution to
develop SSPs. The resources to be allocated bubble chart adopted from Nielsen. It project development from
should not only be human but also any other uses different shapes and colors to refer champions and sponsors.
important resources,22 such as machines, to different regions around the world. Auxiliary process one.
labs and special materials. It also means Step 11 lays out the adjustments to the In steps 13 to 16, all quality
that, conceptually, the resources initially portfolio. After defining the initial version, initiatives must be linked to
allocated to conduct SSPs should not be risk analysis and graphical representa- the business strategy.26 It is
displaced during project development to tion, the MBB can, if necessary, adjust the up to the MBB to understand
conduct day-to-day activities. It is important portfolio to optimize the final figure before and regularly monitor the
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alsmadi, Majed, Brian Lehaney and Zulfiqar Khan, “Implementing Six Sigma
in Saudi Arabia: An Empirical Study on the Fortune 100 Firms,” Total
Quality Management & Business Excellence, Vol. 23, No. 3-4, 2012, Marcelo Machado Fernandes is a Master
pp. 263-276. Black Belt (MBB) at Nielsen Media
Anand, Gopesh, Peter T. Ward and Mohan V. Tatikonda, “Role of Explicit Research in Cotia, Brazil. He earned a
and Tacit Knowledge in Six Sigma Projects: An Empirical Examination doctorate in industrial engineering from
of Differential Project Success,” Journal of Operations Management, São Paulo State University in Brazil.
Vol. 28, 2010, pp. 303-315. Fernandes is an ASQ-certified MBB and
Antony, Jiju, “Is Six Sigma a Management Fad or Fact?” Assembly Automation, a member of ASQ.
Vol. 27, No. 1, 2007, pp. 17-19.
Antony, Jiju, Maneesh Kumar, Christian N. Madu, Douglas C. Montgomery
and Sung Hyun Park, “Common Myths of Six Sigma Demystified,”
International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Vol, 25,
No. 8, 2008, pp. 878-895. Jennifer Hurst is Business Process
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), “Data Base Research,” Improvement Center of Excellence
IBGE, www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela. leader at Nielsen Media Research in
Brun, Alessandro, “Critical Success Factors of Six Sigma Implementations Oldsmar, FL. She earned a master’s
in Italian Companies,” International Journal of Production Economics, degree in computer information
Vol. 131, No. 1, 2011, pp. 158-164. systems from Georgia State University
Cheng, Chen-Yang, and Pu-Yan Chang, “Implementation of the Lean Six in Atlanta. Hurst is an ASQ-certified
Sigma Framework in Non-Profit Organizations: A Case Study,” Total Black Belt and a member of ASQ.
Quality Management & Business Excellence, Vol. 23, No. 3-4, 2012,
pp. 431-447.
Eisenhardt, Kathleen M., “Building Theories From Case Study Research,”
Academy of Management Review, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1989, pp. 532-550.
Eisenhardt, Kathleen M., and Melissa E. Graebner, “Theory Building From
Cases: Opportunities and Challenges,” Academy of Management Journal, Jiju Antony is a professor of quality
Vol. 50, No. 1, 2007, pp. 25–32. management at Heriot Watt University
Goh, Thong Ngee, P.C. Low, Kwok-Leung Tsui and Min Xie, “Impact of in Edinburgh, Scotland. He earned a
Six Sigma Implementation on Stock Price Performance,” Total Quality doctorate in quality management from
Management & Business Excellence, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2003, pp. 753-763. the University of Portsmouth in England.
Hart, Susan, Erik Jan Hultink, Nikolaos Tzokas and Harry R. Commandeur, Antony is a senior member of ASQ.
“Industrial Companies’ Evaluation Criteria in New Product Development
Gates,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2003,
pp. 22-36.
Jonas, Daniel, “Empowering Project Portfolio Managers: How Management
Involvement Impacts Project Portfolio Management Performance,” João Batista Turrioni is a professor
International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 28, 2010, pp. 818-831. at the Federal University of Itajubá
Linderman, Kevin, Roger G. Schroeder, Srilata Zaheer and Adrian S. in Minas Gerais, Brazil, and earned a
Choo, “Six Sigma: A Goal Theoretic Perspective,” Journal of Operational doctorate in engineering from São
Management, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2003, pp. 193-203. Paulo State University.
Martinsuo, Miia, and Päivi Lehtonen, “Role of Single-Project Management
Achieving Portfolio Management Efficiency,” International Journal of
Project Management, Vol. 25, 2007, pp. 56-65.
Meskendahl, Sascha, “The Influence of Business Strategy on Project Portfolio
Management and its Success—A Conceptual Framework,” International
Journal of Project Management, Vol. 28, No. 8, 2010, pp. 807-817.
Nair, Anand, Manoj K. Malhotra and Sanjay L. Ahire, “Toward a Theory of
Managing Context in Six Sigma Process-Improvement Projects: An Action Messias Borges Silva is a professor at
Research Investigation,” Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 29, No. 5, São Paulo State University and earned a
2011, pp. 529-548. doctorate in chemical engineering from
the University of Campinas in Brazil.
Just the
Facts While switching my career from auto-
motive to the mining sector, I realized
A mining organi-
zation’s ultimate that the mining of precious metals and
goal must be commodities is inherently risky. But
to achieve zero
fatalities, even during my onboarding, the employer
though mining is showed me that mining operations in
an inherently risky
activity. North America are statistically safer than
the average workplace in manufacturing,
Leading indica-
tors are more construction and other sectors.
relevant than Over the years, the mining sector has
lagging indicators
to achieve this driven down instances of time lost due to
common goal injury, but more work can be done when
and to diminish
low-occurrence, it comes to eliminating serious injuries
high-severity and deaths. In one case in 2009, the bot-
incidents.
tom of a cone-shaped bin holding raw ore
A collaborative let go, spewing an estimated 500 tons
approach among
mining organi- of raw ore. A 40-year-old mine operator
zations that taps was spared the brunt of the impact, but
into the power of
Six Sigma for met- another young miner was crushed under
rics and analytics the ore. Emergency response crews had
is needed to reach
the goal of human to dissolve the water-soluble ore and sift
safety by sharing through it to retrieve the body, according
lessons learned
and experiences. a company spokesperson.
8 1
11 11 1 11 1 1 1 1
6
11 1 1 1
1 1 11 1 11 111 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11
4 1 1 1
1
10 10 011 0 11 0 11 11 12 12 12 13
20 /2
0
/2 /2 /2 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
1/ 19 /7 27 15 /3 22 10 8 15
6/ 9/
1 4/ 8/ 12 3/ 7/ /2 2/
10
Date
++ Safety incidents happen more with new, less-experienced To deliver excellence in safety performance,
employees and contract workers, compared to seasoned a Six Sigma professional must fully integrate safety
operators. with the business because working in silos does not
++ Faster job rotation is a factor in improved productivity. How- provide the desired outcomes. The safety function
ever, this productivity can compromise safety because time must prove to add value to the business and work
spent on personnel training is not enough to make the job toward a world-class safety culture that helps
rotation safe. place the business at a distinct advantage among
The Six Sigma approach for ensuring mine safety is well its competitors.
defined in literature. The process determines the root causes The best way to achieve this is through improve-
contributing to the hazard or injuries so each of them can ment of systems that are already in place and
be targeted and improved. By using mistake-proofing monitored by management for continuous business
(poka-yoke) tools, a process’ safety performance can be performance.
significantly improved.
This requires testing and awareness among everyone Mine site safety data organization
involved, as well as the institutionalization of these practices Finding comprehensive data and statistics on mining
across the mining operation. These remedies must be built health and safety is a major challenge. Organizations
into the process specifications and procedures, and the safety measure and define injuries or accidents differently.
department should create awareness across all groups and Due to the lack of a common standard, there is no
functions to prevent injuries or a specific hazard type.2,3 one-stop shop for safety data for the industry on
FIGURE 2
8
x̅ = 0.63 x̅ = 0.57
1 x̅ = 0.57 x̅ = 0.55 1
6 x̅ = 0.5
1 x̅ = 0.29 1
1 1 1 1 1
4 x̅ = 0.25
x̅ = 0.14 1 1
1 1 1 111
2
11
10 10 10 10 10 0 11 11 12 12 12
/2
0
/2
0
/2
0
/2
0
/2
0
/2 20 20 20 20
25 16 13 /4 26 17 8/ 9/ 0/ 2 /
/ 9/ / 11 / / 1/ /2 /2 /1
8 10 11 10 1 10 11 12
Date
work periods are 0.25, 0.63, 0.55 and 0.93, and it has steadily with less difficulty. People are willing to share best
increased since 2010. This might be correlated with a new main- practices that are making them safe.
tenance workforce, including new on-site contractors. On the contrary, safety incidents happen more
This indicates there may be a correlation between new frequently when production support activities—such
employees and contract workers and safety incidents, as noted as plant maintenance start-up preparations and
earlier. This shows some signs of our paradigm that safety inci- shutdown activities—are increased beyond their nor-
dents happen more with new employees and contract workers mal level. These activities are random and discrete,
as compared to seasoned operators. See Figure 2, p. 29. and often unique in their makeup and planning.
Figure 3 is the I-chart of all data points representing all 16 peri- Pressure to finish maintenance quickly is an
ods. The lowest mean severity is 0.25 and the maximum is 1.14. important contributor in creating unsafe conditions
The mine site safety data are primarily discrete and require a when safety procedures are violated and shortcuts
simple hypothesis to be tested to draw major inferences about are adopted. These reasons and others—such as
mine safety. One valid hypothesis is to test whether the various tempered tools, operator fatigue and inadequate
time periods are significantly different. To do this, we can per- job preparation—validate the common notion
form a single-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) and a t-test. that safety incidents happen more frequently
See Online Figures 1 and 2, which can be found on this article’s when production support activities—such as plant
webpage at qualityprogress.com. maintenance start-up preparations and shutdown
The t-test and one-way ANOVA results show there is no activities—are increased beyond their normal level.
statistically significant difference in the severity of incidents The paradigm that a series of small incidents hap-
between the different time periods. This weakens our safety pens before a major incident is difficult to validate.
culture paradigm that says safety incidents happen more It requires investigation and analysis around major
frequently when production support activities—such as plant incidences to draw conclusions. A few fatal incidents
maintenance, start-up preparations and shutdown activities, in similar underground mining environments were
are increased beyond their normal levels. See Online Figures reviewed to analyze this paradigm. However, there
3 and 4. were signs of small safety incidents recorded by the
In a continuous operation—such as rock cutting, conveying, mining companies.4
crushing, screening and refining—human activities are typically
repetitive and recorded in the subconscious mind. Because
of this, the hazards are known and well defined. Further, the Job rotation increases the variety of tasks required
safety records are tangible in these activities, and continuous because the worker takes on more duties, enlarging
improvement programs can be implemented in routine and the physical demands and adding variety to the job.
8 x̅ = 0.55 1 x̅ = 0.5
x̅ = 0.25
11 11 1 11 1 1 1 1
6
11 1 1 1
1 1 11 1 11 111 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11
4 1 1 1
1
10 10 011 0 11 0 11 11 12 12 12 13
20 /2
0
/2 /2 /2 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
1/ 19 /7 27 15 /3 22 10 8 15
6/ 9/
1 4/ 8/ 12 3/ 7/ /2 2/
10
Date
That means when the continuous propagation was severed when 900 kilograms of rock fell on him, pinning
of safety violations is visible in the form of small him to a conveyor belt. Goddard was paralyzed from the
incidents—such as near misses, cuts, bruises and waist down and suffered two broken arms.6
equipment damage—the occurrence of a major inci- In mines, faster job rotation is a factor in improved produc-
dent is highly likely.5 The following examples validate tivity. However, it works against safety because time spent on
these local safety paradigms: personnel training is not enough to make the job rotation safe.
++ In Saskatchewan, a fire trapped more than 50 According to Ergonomics Plus, an injury prevention and ergo-
miners underground for about 15 hours until nomics consulting firm,7 job rotation is the structured interchange
emergency workers extinguished the blaze. No of workers between different jobs, requiring workers to rotate
one was injured in this February 2014 incident. among different workstations or jobs at certain time intervals.
++ Andrew Hann, a 25-year-old Newfoundland man, Job rotation increases the variety of tasks required because
died after falling about 20 meters from a steel the worker takes on more duties, enlarging the physical
scaffold in July 2013. Hann was employed by a demands and adding variety to the job. The objective is to pro-
construction company contracted to work on a vide a consistent and systematic method of developing formal
mine expansion project. job rotations that are based on the requirements of the jobs
++ Edward Artic, a 59-year-old electrician, died in being rotated.
a mine’s above-ground mill in May 2010 when a Research on ergonomics shows that workers who partake
load being lifted into the building struck his head. in medium-complexity rotations have high job satisfaction.8
++ In 2006, 29-year-old Paul Goddard’s spinal cord However, a high or low-complexity rotation, which many
FIGURE 4
Comments
0.00 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24 • Test: There is not enough evidence to conclude that the
means differ at the 0.1 level of significance.
• CI: Quantifies the uncertainty associated with estimating the
Distribution of data
Compare the data and means of the samples. difference from sample data. You can be 90% confident that
Severity score
the true difference is between -0.025254 and 0.25690.
• Distribution of data: Compare the location and means of
samples. Look for unusual data before interpreting the results
of the test.
2Severity score
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
workers prefer, leads to fewer accidents and days of sick leave. safety performance, some historical knowledge of the
It is important to remember that job rotation does not eliminate original statistical improvement tools and industrial
ergonomic risk factors. processes is necessary.9
While job rotation is an effective control measure for jobs that It is important for a Six Sigma practitioner to
have been identified as high-risk jobs, it is not desirable that define proper metrics in any Six Sigma exercise.
ergonomic risk factors are hidden by administrative controls. Developing leading measures that could more
Obviously, ergonomic problems should be addressed and fixed accurately predict future events would be extremely
through training whenever possible. Despite the caution this helpful to the mining and metals industry. The idea
solution presents, it is important to recognize the many great is to identify trends that reveal whether conditions
benefits to implementing job rotation in the workplace. leading to an accident are increasing. The aim is
to be able to take preemptive measures before an
Preemptive measures accident happens.
Six Sigma is the evolution of data-driven process improvements Traditionally, safety has been framed as a business
that have been used extensively to improve the performance of priority, with the case for safety often made in terms
manufacturing and chemical industries. Although Six Sigma tools of enhanced productivity and reduced costs. Infor-
can help produce significant and sustainable improvements in mation about safety management measurements
Quality in the maintenance industry and existing—or “brown- They are closely managed so
The marriage of quality assurance (QA) and quality field”—environments. These as not to exceed the project
control (QC) in the oil and gas industry, particularly terms are commonplace in management anchors of
in the manufacturing and construction management the petrochemical industry, time, cost and quality. By
environments, is a natural and symbiotic relation- and Massy Wood functions comparison, maintenance
ship. QA and industry-specific QC techniques are comfortably in both areas. management professionals
fully ingrained in such contracts internationally. include reliability engineers,
Asset maintenance management—by definition— Maintenance focus mechanical technicians and
focuses on the upkeep of facilities that often are When maintenance and equipment specialists.
designed to provide as near-continuous operational quality are juxtaposed, The common ground here,
service as possible in the provision of hydrocarbon herein lies the dilemma of though, is the need for plan-
and its derivatives. It is this base product that is whether to rely on one or ners and schedulers, sound
responsible for making and breaking hundreds of the other when it comes health, safety and environ-
organizations in the energy sector, depending on to asset and equipment ment (HSE) management
which end of the global monetary scale oil and gas reliability and availability. systems and, of course, QMSs.
can command. Quality professionals in
Like quality management, maintenance man- the construction industry, for Types of
agement also has its own specialisms, theories and example, are dedicated to maintenance
gurus that make it a standalone profession in previ- myriad specialized tasks, such organizations
ously undeveloped—or “greenfield”—environments as nondestructive examina- There are four general types
tions, welding inspections of maintenance organizations:
and tank, pipe and pressure reactive, preventive, predic-
When maintenance and quality are juxtaposed, vessel inspections, which tive and productive. These
herein lies the dilemma of whether to rely on one are all part and parcel of the organizations, their key char-
or the other when it comes to asset and equipment day-to-day project activities acteristics and quality overlap
reliability and availability. of the oil and gas industry. are summarized in Table 1.
++ Emphasis on preventive maintenance (PM) activities (weekly, monthly, ++ QMS implemented but
quarterly maintenance). limited in adding value
to the maintenance
++ Planned turnarounds/shutdowns. function.
Preventive ++ Computerized maintenance management system (CMMS) in place.
++ Minimal KPIs in place.
++ Short-term work scheduling.
++ Inventory control present but focuses on short-term activity.
++ PM activities are based on time and use. ++ QMS implemented
contributes to the
++ Planned turnarounds/shutdowns. maintenance strategy
effectiveness via
++ Advanced CMMS in place.
Predictive performance trending,
++ Wider use of KPIs, includes trending of equipment shutdown/failure. root cause analysis
(RCA) and risk analysis
++ Short, medium and long-term work scheduling. (RA).
++ More intelligent inventory control with specialized or critical spares included.
++ Condition-based and reliability-based maintenance (PM) activities in place. ++ QMS implemented
aligns with the
++ Corrective maintenance activities influenced by the above. organization’s business
strategy.
++ Minimal unscheduled/emergency work.
++ Cost of poor quality
++ Planned turnarounds/shutdowns not as intrusive or extensive. is now an inherent
Productive ++ Innovative use of CMMS. measurement
in addition to
++ Robust use of wide-ranging KPIs. performance trending,
RCA and RA.
++ Short, medium and long-term work scheduling.
++ Inventory control includes critical spares and alignment with budgetary costs
and capital expenditure.
Types of maintenance strategies optimizing the useful life was the overarching element.
An organization’s classification in Table 1 depends of equipment or a system.” It was at this design stage
on its maintenance strategy (or mix of strategies). In the case of Massy Wood, that quality assurance played
The different maintenance strategies include reactive, the organization began a its most crucial role, ensuring
preventive, predictive and proactive. The strategies, detailed gap analysis of its that the organization was on
their key characteristics and quality overlap are sum- major client at the time, which par with its world-class status.
marized in Table 2 (p. 38). influenced the maintenance This was orchestrated
These strategies all have a governing attribute strategies applied. The keeping in mind that the
that triggers when and what type of maintenance analysis was done under the functions of maintenance and
takes place. They also all fall under the umbrella framework of an overall man- quality management are sim-
definition of “maintenance,” which is defined as agement system, of which ilar in that the most effective
“activity that is geared toward sustaining and maintenance management systems are developed when
TA B L E 2
FIGURE 1
Predictive
(condition-based)
strategy
Integrated maintenance system controls
Preventive
strategy
Reactive
strategy
No
strategy
Reliability
not only its global operations, but also industry best FIGURE 2 control, process simplifica-
practices in maintenance and quality. As a result, the tion and contributions to
organization saw operations benefits from as early
as the implementation phase and throughout the
Plan-do-check-act cycle operational lessons learned.
++ Understanding the bound-
execution of the core maintenance business. These aries where maintenance
benefits included: ended and quality began—
++ Differentiating between a preferred ratio of and vice versa—also was
planned and scheduled maintenance vs. reac- important. The run-to-
tive and unplanned maintenance allowed for failure maintenance
proper analysis of failure modes on occurrence strategy mentioned earlier
(or those allowed to occur, such as in the case typically is an instance of
of the run-to-failure strategy for non-critical, the maintenance strategy
easily replaceable equipment). Such trending working as it should, rather
allowed Massy Wood to improve its inven- than an opportunity to
tory and spares-management programs. launch a failure investiga-
++ Finding a balance between preventive and tion. Where these failures
corrective maintenance activities should be a become recurrent and
fundamental metric in any maintenance system. fail too soon in the useful
Because it was aligned with the QMS (via the life of the equipment, the
monitoring and measurement clause of ISO 9001), situation must be reviewed
however, the trending and criticality of failures to determine whether there
was investigated using fault tree analysis and root Finding a balance between is a quality issue rendering
cause analysis. Calibration and categorization of preventive and corrective the cost-effectiveness of
IMTE as critical or not also influenced this task. maintenance activities should the strategy ineffective.
++ The governing activities in the maintenance sys- be a fundamental metric in any ++ Maintenance quality per-
tem were occasionally reviewed for effectiveness. maintenance system. sonnel were not embedded
This was achieved by implementing a risk-based in the execution teams, as
internal audit schedule that focused on the higher married well with the HSE would normally occur in a
areas of impact to production and efficiency. applications and empha- construction environment.
Tailoring the schedule frequency played a crucial sis of the business. This was a deliberate move
role and was influenced by the number of non- For example, a recur- because, given its nature,
conformities, such as breakdowns and operational ring seal failure identified maintenance execution can
upsets that occurred. the existence of abrasive be governed by the mainte-
++ The percentage of time dedicated to continuous foreign particles—for nance strategy.
improvement (rather than pure problem solving) which the seals were not The quality depart-
may be somewhat of a luxury in maintenance designed—rather than ment was engaged via
management, but is an absolute requirement of incorrect seal thickness or a intervention in the form
ISO 9001. Therefore, continuous improvement ini- manufacturing defect. of surveillance audits to
tiatives were documented as an attainable target ++ 5S was used to identify ensure compliance with
in performance charters to encourage pushing and eliminate waste, such the integrated system’s
this envelope, with positive results. The de- as inefficient job planning, controls. The reliability
bottlenecking of a workshop repair process was time delays, nonconforming engineer function also was
one area actioned using this method. material, equipment failure a strategic ally of the QA/
++ Because of the integration with quality, main- and contractor mismanage- QC department through
tenance performance indicators were used as ment. This was a beneficial fault tree and root cause
a prompt or trigger for corrective or improve- amalgam with the mainte- analyses of perceived trou-
ment actions, rather than simply as a database nance strategies that were ble areas.
repository. In other words, a proactive—rather ultimately implemented and ++ Competence often is taken
than reactive—system was achieved by segre- was most visible in materi- for granted, but ISO 9001
gating leading and lagging indicators. This also als management, inventory highlights the need for it in
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Valuing players
of Added A player’s value for fantasy leagues is based on his
statistics in the ranking categories. In today’s mod-
Value ern setting, actual NBA data are readily available
online from sources such as CBS Sports, ESPN and
Tables 4 and 5 show how to calculate this added Yahoo Sports, among others. Most of these sites
value to FGP or FTP for an individual player. Below provide rankings for NBA players based on their
are the equations to do so for any player where proprietary formulas that they promote for use in
AvgFG and AvgFT represent the team’s average fantasy leagues. However, while these sites provide
number of field goals and free throws multiplied by
four to represent the other four players. AvgFGA a generalized overview of the league, not all fantasy
and AvgFTA represent average attempts, while leagues measure the same categories, so rankings
FB, FGA, FT and FTA represent those made by the may not be precisely tailored for a specific league.
individual player being evaluated. We were interested in deciphering these rankings
for two reasons:
(4*AvgFG)+FG AvgFG 1. To determine their relevance to the eight
FG Add = –
(4*AvgFGA)+FGA AvgFGA fantasy scoring categories.
2. To evaluate the quality of current ranking
(4*Avg FT)+FT Avg FT schemes and identify higher quality metrics
FT Add = –
(4*Avg FTA)+FTA Avg FTA
for choosing players.
For sake of brevity, all further analyses in this
After applying this calculation to the top 50 play- article will use the CBS Sports rankings.
ers, we can build the following regression models:
++ Predict FG Add based on FG made, FG missed and Multivariable modeling
FG attempted Multivariable linear regression models are used
++ Predict FT Add based on FT made, FT missed and
FT attempted. to evaluate the current ranking metrics using a
separate model by year for nine NBA seasons. Each
model calculates a coefficient for each of the eight
metrics as predictors of the overall CBS rank. Using
this method, each predictor’s coefficient controls for
the effect of the other seven metrics, and its statis-
Calculating league standings tical significance in the overall model is evaluated.
Table 1 illustrates how league points were awarded for PTS and Both the size of the coefficient and its consistency
AST categories based on the statistics accumulated over the over multiple years are important.
2016-2017 season of a mature fantasy NBA league. This model uses the last nine NBA seasons (from
The table shows that regardless of whether a player wins a 2008-2009 to 2016-2017) based on the top 100
category by one or 1,000, only nine points are assigned to the players as ranked by CBS Sports. Table 3 (p. 47)
category—thus, you need to win a category by just a single unit offers this nine-year history of regression coeffi-
to accumulate nine points. You might think of this in the same cients for each statistical category and their
way as winning a bid on a contract: A business bidding for ser- relative strength.
vices would want to offer just enough to beat its competitors, The strength of a category can be measured by
without sacrificing too much of its own resources. the size (weight) of the regression coefficients.
2. We incorporated the FG and FT data for an indi- FT Add= 0.097 + 0.074(FT) - 0.06(FTA)
vidual player of interest. Using these regression coefficients, we can now create a new
3. The change in FGP or FTP from the four-player statistic for the percentage categories: field goal score (FGS)
team to the five-player team that includes player and free throw score (FTS).
X represents how much does player X moves the FGS= (1.8*FG) - (0.87*FGA)
needle. We call this the added (or subtracted) Each field goal made receives 1.8 points, while a penalty of
value that player contributes to (or costs) the team. 0.87 points is assigned to each field goal attempted.
The scope of the analysis that follows focuses on FTS= (7.4*FT) - (6*FTA)
the 2016-2017 season. Table 4 (p. 48) shows a calcu- Each free throw made receives 7.4 points, while a penalty
lation for NBA player Kevin Durant’s added value to of six points is assigned to each free throw attempted. We use
a four-player team’s FGP. We define a player’s added these scores in our construction of a new model: the player
(or subtracted) value calculated in step three as FG valuation model.
Add (when calculating the change in FGP) or FT Add
(when calculating the change in FTP). New player valuation model
Table 5 (p. 48) gives the same calculation using FT For a team to have the best chance of winning the league, the
added value rather than for FGs. Again, Durant rep- team should try to achieve a “seven,” or close to it, in each cat-
resents player X. As in Table 4, the values for players egory. Given that there are typically eight statistical categories,
one through four represent the averages for the top we can assume that a score of 56 (eight categories x seven)
50 players. See the sidebar “General Calculation of points should win the league. Of course, the number of points
Added Value” for more explanation. it takes to win the league will vary slightly by season, but 56
Between the two years for which we performed points is a good goal to set.
the earlier calculations, there was a small increase in To build the player valuation model, we begin with PTS as a
the added value, although this was not significant. baseline value. From Table 1, in 2016-2017, to “beat the seven”
We use the coefficients from these models to calcu- in points, 8,352 points were needed. In addition, to “beat the
late our new player valuation model. seven” in assists, 1,954 points were needed. The ratio of these
Using the data from Tables 4 and 5, we get the two-point totals shows that each assist is worth 4.3 points.
following regression equations: With this ratio, the individual category weights for each
FG Add = -0.02 + 0.018(FG) - 0.0087(FGA) statistical category are determined in “points.” These weights
TA B L E 4 TA B L E 5
FG = field goals FGP = field goal percentage FT = free throws FTP = free throw percentage
are used to calculate a rating for each player. Note that these Figure 1 is a histogram that shows the number
category weights vary slightly from year to year based on of players plotted against the NVR for the 2016-
that season’s rankings, similar to the regression coefficients. 2017 season. Therefore, after getting past the elite
However, as with regression coefficients—except in the case of players, this model can be used to find undervalued
a significant trend—this variation is small and therefore can be players to acquire or overvalued players to avoid.
used to determine next season’s points thresholds. The histogram shows most players in the 90-150
We call this newly calculated rating the new valuation rating range with two elite players, James Harden and
(NVR), which can be calculated as shown below. This rating Russell Westbrook, who are well above 220.
incorporates the new approach to FGS and FTS introduced in For example, DeMar DeRozan was ranked 72nd by
the needle moving section. CBS, but had an NVR of 150 that ranked 23rd overall.
NVR= (1*PTS) + 11.7(3PT) + (2.8*TRB) + (4.3*AST) + 17*ST) + This suggests DeRozan may be a better fantasy
(21.5*BK) + [(2.5*FG) - (1.1*FGA)] + [(7.4*FT) - (6*FTA)] draft pick than CBS expected. This is from the fact
This new rating system helps identify undervalued—or that his FG and FT scores may have been underval-
falsely overvalued—players from traditional ranking systems ued by CBS.
by using points as a baseline value. In addition, players are There are many more examples of differences
rated on a per-game basis, which accounts for how frequently between the CBS rank and the NVR, and these
they are playing. This can often drastically increase (or players may represent the under or overvalued draft
decrease) a player’s value, causing an inconsistency between picks for a fantasy team. While optimizing single
the rating and the CBS ranking. In addition, the new FGS and player value is important, complementing across the
FTS metrics incorporate the added (or lost) value each player combined team statistics is also important to score
brings to the team. in every ranked category. Draymond Green, ranked
The player valuation model using the rating will help a fantasy by CBS as seventh overall, had an NVR of 149, which
league participant analyze the value of each individual player ranks 25th because he had negative FG and FT scores.
to construct a well-rounded team capable of winning in many Isaiah Thomas, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard
scenarios. Because it is nearly impossible to attempt to win all or Jimmy Butler would all serve as better picks
eight categories, this model values players to “beat the seven,” over Green, given that they all had an NVR of 175 or
which, if achieved in all statistical categories, nearly guarantees better, with strong FG and FT scores. Note that all
winning the league overall. of these players played between 74 and 76 games,
FIGURE 1
14
12
Number of players
10
0
60 90 120 150 180 210
Rating
TA B L E 6 REFERENCES
1. Daniel Roberts, “The Growth in Fantasy Sports Will Not Come
Revised model coefficients From Football,” Yahoo! Finance, Sept. 28, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/
yahoo-fantasty-basket.
2. The Supreme Court of the United States, “Murphy, Governor of New
and p-values: 2016-2017 Jersey, et al. v. National Collegiate Athletic Assn. et al.” opinion, May 24,
2018, www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-476_dbfi.pdf.
Coeffi- P-value
Predictor cient
AST = assists
3PT 0.23 0.00 BK = blocks
TRB 0.03 0.01 FGP = field goal George Recck is director of the math
percentage resource center at Babson College in
AST 0.04 0.00 FTP = free throw
percentage Wellesley, MA, and founder of Total
ST 0.28 0.00 PTS = points scored Information Inc., an information
3PT = three-pointers consulting businesses providing service
BK 0.35 0.00 made to small businesses. He holds an MBA
TRB = total rebounds from Babson College.
PTS 0.02 0.01 ST = steals
FGS 0.04 0.06
FTS 0.01 0.36
The Complete
Picture
Together, NPS and CSAT metrics can better gauge customer loyalty
by Christopher A. Seaman, I. Elaine Allen and Julia E. Seaman
The net promoter score (NPS) was proposed by Calculation and eight are called passives.
Frederick Reichheld in 2003 as “the one number of the NPS The original question metric
you need to grow.” 1 It is now ubiquitous in market- Reichheld’s single question has 11 levels, though it can
ing and for reporting organization growth. to measure satisfaction of a appear with just 10 levels
It is based on a one-question survey that asks customer (“How likely is it (one to 10).
the respondent the likelihood of recommending a that you would recommend While the NPS respondent
product or organization from zero to 10, using an [brand or organization X] to a may choose between up to 11
extended Likert scale. However, given the process of friend or colleague?”) has the levels, the results are grouped
creating one's score, this metric is condensed into a respondent choosing a num- into just three. Specifically,
dichotomous two-point framework, and much of the ber between zero and 10, with the NPS that is reported is
information collected is ignored.2 Even Reichheld zero labeled “not at all likely” calculated as the percent-
now admits that his initial findings were imperfect, and 10 labeled “extremely age of promoters minus the
and a causal connection between the NPS and likely.” The distribution of the percentage of detractors and,
growth has not been validated.3 responses is calculated and according to Reichheld, any
Despite the evidence against its use, the NPS has summarized in each numbered positive score is good and
become ingrained in business analytics. It is an easy category and transformed into indicates growth, with a score
score to calculate, compare and interpret, driving a single statistic. of 50 or more being stellar.
its use and adoption. It is now its own industry with The respondents, who The middle group—the
specialized graphics and benchmarks tailored to give ratings of nine or 10, are passives—are ignored. None
industries and the Fortune 500.4 In this article, we combined and called promot- of the ordinal nature of this
statistically explore the NPS to demonstrate the ers, while respondents with scale is being used because
variability and indeterminate value, highlighting how ratings from zero to six are it is being reduced to just
any one NPS can be derived from many different called detractors. Those in the two levels (promoter or
survey scenarios. middle with ratings of seven detractor) without regard to
75%
Clearly, it is important
to understand the
50% percentage of your
sample the net promoter
score represents, as well
25% as the actual score.
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
any differences between a The score stays the same if one pro- The possible combinations for these NPS
definitive detractor (= 0) and moter and one detractor both change values of 10, 30 and 60 are shown in
a marginal detractor (= 6). their ratings to become passives. plots in Figures 1-4 (pp. 53-55).
As the number of respondents These plots illustrate that although an
How many ways increases, the number of combinations NPS might be identical to another NPS,
can we obtain the with the same score increases as well. making any conclusions that they are
same score? With 10 respondents, there are five measuring the same thing—when in one
For the NPS, businesses ways to achieve an NPS of 10. With 100 case, all or most of the respondents are
want to maintain and report respondents, meanwhile, there are 46 promoters or detractors, and in another
as high a score as possible, different combinations of promoters, case, they are mostly passives—would
ideally above 50. However, passives and detractors. Also, even with be incorrect. It is rare for any business to
there are multiple ways of the same number of responses, the provide details around its reported NPS,
getting the same NPS with number of combinations possible for a so determining where one is on these
different combinations of particular score increases as the score examples is almost impossible.
promoters, passives and gets closer to zero. With 100 respon- Another important issue with the NPS
detractors depending on dents, there are 46 combinations for an is its lack of confidence bounds. This
the score and the number of NPS of 10, 36 ways for an NPS of 30 and interval estimate would be calculated
ratings. This is because the 21 combinations for an NPS of 60. based on the total number of respon-
method of calculation does Clearly, it is important to understand dents in the promoter and detractor
not account for total num- the percentage of your sample the NPS categories. The properties of a variety of
bers or the passive group: represents, as well as the actual score. methods of examining interval estimates
FIGURE 2
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
means that it is possible to
have different CSAT scores Passive percentage (%)
and standard deviations for
the same NPS and number
TA B L E 1
of responses. Table 1 demon-
strates some of the values
possible in even a small set CSAT vs. NPS vs. Std Dev
of responses with
Score Responses Score Responses Score Responses
the same NPS.
While your NPS equals 10 1 4 1 1
for all three of these survey 2 2 2
responses, CSAT is different 3 3 3
and, more concerning, its
4 4 4 Despite the evi-
variability changes an order
5 5 5 dence against its
of magnitude from 0.3 to 4.5,
6 6 4 6 use, the NPS has
indicating a different pattern of
become ingrained
CSAT and number of custom- 7 1 7 1 7
in business ana-
ers recommending a brand 8 8 8 9 lytics. It is an easy
to other potential customers.
9 9 5 9 1 score to calculate,
Incorporating variabil-
10 5 10 10 compare and inter-
ity into the estimate of
Total 10 Total 10 Total 10 pret, driving its use
CSAT is important, and
and adoption.
including the passives in CSAT 6.1 CSAT 7.6 CSAT 8.1
the calculation is essential, NPS 10 NPS 10 NPS 10
the interpretation of the
Std Dev 4.5 Std Dev 1.5 Std Dev 0.3
CSAT and the NPS together
may give additional insight CSAT = customer satisfaction
NPS = net promoter score
into customer behavior. Std Dev = standard deviation
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Birkett, Alex, “What Is Customer Satisfaction Score
(CSAT)?” Aug. 16, 2018, HubSpot, https://tinyurl.com/
birkett-blog-nps.
CJM Research, “Limits of the Net Promoter Score
(NPS) System,” May 13, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/
Seeing a complete picture cjm-research-nps.
The popularity of the NPS is not likely to change in the near future. While Hayes, Bob E., “Customer Loyalty 2.0,” Quirk’s Marketing
Research Review, 2008, https://tinyurl.com/
further evidence disproves its initial purpose, NPS reporting has become nps-hayes-quirk.
a standard and expected brand analysis. As we have demonstrated here, Spool, Jared M., “Net Promoter Score Considered Harmful,”
however, the NPS may not tell the whole story, and there may be a large User Interface Engineering, 2017 https://tinyurl.com/
uie-spool-nps.
difference between two brands with the same score. An alternative to the
NPS, the CSAT, does show the variability in the scores, and examining it in
the context of a given NPS is helpful.
NPSs don’t tell the whole story on their own. Tracking NPS is better than
having no measurement of consumer sentiment, but to understand how Christopher A. Seaman is
your customers feel, you must look at the distribution of the ratings. There- director of data science of the
fore, while the NPS can be a good comparator tool, it is useful to try to look Quahog Research Group in
Oakland, CA, and a statistical
behind the numbers to see a complete picture. consultant for Babson Survey
Finally, by asking “How likely is it that you would recommend [brand or Research Group at Babson
organization X] to a friend or colleague?” you are asking the respondent College in Wellesley, MA. He
earned his master’s degree
to judge the usefulness of the product or brand for someone else. What if in mathematics and cryptography and is all but
I think that the product is far too simple for my complex needs, but would dissertation (ABD) in mathematics from the City
work for my friend’s simple application? It would be an error to assume University of New York.
that I was loyal to the product, I would probably always avoid it.
Likewise, I could love it, but think my own needs are unique, and therefore
I might not recommend it for my friends. Of course, if I have little under- I. Elaine Allen is professor
of biostatistics at the
standing of what my friends actually need, I’d tend to give some middle
University of California, San
ground ranking, which would show no relationship to the quality of the Francisco, and emeritus
product, but rather my not understanding the specific needs of my friends. professor of statistics at
Babson College. She is also
This can be far worse when ranking a specific product rather than a brand
director of the Babson Survey
because the match of product to user can be specific. Research Group. She earned
a doctorate in statistics from Cornell University in
REFERENCES
Ithaca, NY. Allen is a member of ASQ.
1. Fredrick Reichheld, “The One Number You Need to Grow,” Harvard Business Review,
December 2003, https://tinyurl.com/hbr-nps-reichheld.
2. Daniel B. Schneider, Matt Berent, Randall Thomas and Jon S. Kosnick, “Measuring Julia E. Seaman is research
Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty: Improving the ‘Net-Promoter’ Score,” 2008, director of the Quahog
Semantics Scholar, https://tinyurl.com/schneider-cust-sat. Research Group and a
3. Timothy L. Keiningham, Bruce Cooil, Tor W. Andreassen and Lerzan Aksoy, “A statistical consultant for the
Longitudinal Examination of Net Promoter and Firm Revenue Growth,” Journal of Babson Survey Research
Marketing, Vol. 71, July 2007, pp. 39-51. Group at Babson College.
4. Customer Guru, “Net Promoter Benchmarks for Fortune 500 Companies,” 2018, She earned her doctorate in
https://customer.guru/net-promoter-score/fortune-500. pharmaceutical chemistry
5. Brendan Rocks, “Interval Estimation for the ‘Net Promoter Score,’” American and pharmacogenomics from the University of
Statistician, Vol. 70, No. 4, 2016, pp. 365-372. California, San Francisco.
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Standards-related developments and activities
Standard Issues
AS9100
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A look at what made the transition to the AS9100D series of standards a success
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A critical component of AS9100 series conformity perform audits.
assessment is ensuring auditor knowledge of the Probitas, the auditor authentication body in the Americas, was
new requirements and consistency in their appli- required to update the auditor certification status. Initially, there was
cation. The IAQG partnered with its contracted concern that a significant number of auditors wouldn’t transition to the
training developer, Plexus, to produce online train- new requirements. However, as seen in Table 1, the number of auditors
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Quality and safety are integral The culture of learning and the ability to document incremen-
aspects of software-driven medical tally is the benefits of agile. This helps fulfill legal and regulatory
and diagnostic devices. The authors obligations pertaining to various aspects including traceability,
lament that ensuring quality, safety safety, risk and design. The fourth chapter deals with applying
and performance through validation and documentation often agile principles. There is no one way of implementing agile and
is viewed by organizations as an unavoidable cost and not as they share several agile implementation situations.
a benefit. The authors saw an alternative to this outlook in an The book details forming agile teams, documentation and
approach used by agile teams that integrated quality control risk management. The rest of the book details agile project
activities into the development process leading to better and implementation, such as planning techniques, and impact and
safer products. story-mapping techniques. The last part of the book discusses
The book is organized into 12 chapters. The first part of how to track progress and accelerate learning when using agile.
the book provides a detailed explanation of the agile method The last chapter discusses maintaining agile.
and its origins. The authors contend that agile is a mindset This book is written in a simple and readable manner with
and, in the software world, is established through four val- emphasis on understanding and implementation. Theory is kept
ues, grounded by 12 principles, and manifested through many to a minimum. This book should be in the reading list of quality
different practices. The dual feedback loop comprised of agile professionals and those appearing for the ASQ certification exams.
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Footnotes
Quality Experience Telemetry: How to Effectively Use Telemetry for Improved
Customer Success
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The telemetry method to enhance customer satisfaction by methods. Chapter three covers the use
proactively recognizing and addressing problems experienced of data, its classification, quality, protec-
by the end user throughout the product or service life cycle has tion, security and storage, and the use of various databases. It
been rarely used. Telemetry is “an automatic way of collecting also includes a case study on the use of automation leading to
data at remote sites or locations and transmitting the data to improved customer experience.
collectors at the receiving equipment for monitoring, analyzing, Chapters four and five focus on the application of telemetry
and taking appropriate actions based on the insights pro- in a software development organization and the required talent
vided by the data analytics.” The insights gained through this for successful integration. Also included is a list of risk factors
adoptive method will result in more cost effective and efficient considered in designing a telemetry-enabled system. In the
customer service. concluding chapter the previous five chapters are summarized
The book is structured in six chapters. Chapter one provides and include examples of the application.
a basic introduction to several topics, such as customer experi- This book is a valuable resource for those are tasked with
ence, technological tipping points for productivity and growth, development and implementation of a telemetry-based system
proactive versus corrective and preventive actions, and change in organizations with the capacity and desire for enhanced and
in management. sustainable customer loyalty programs beyond the use of tradi-
Chapter two provides a detailed overview of telemetry and tional methods of measuring customer satisfaction.
telemetry structures and compares past and newly developed —Herzl Marouni, Houston
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qualityprogress.com❘ ❘February
qualityprogress.com January 2019 55
QP 63
Risk on
A new twist on an established
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The Radar
Combine likelihood, consequence and detectability with a radar chart by James L. Gooding
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