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EVA, Not EBITDA A New Financial Paradigm For Private Equity Firms
EVA, Not EBITDA A New Financial Paradigm For Private Equity Firms
N UMB ER 3
S U M M ER 2 0 1 9
Journal of
APPLIED
CORPORATE FINANCE
IN THIS I SSU E: Columbia Law School Symposium on
Corporate Governance “Counter-Narratives”:
Corporate On Corporate Purpose and Shareholder Value(s)
103 EVA, Not EBITDA: A New Financial Paradigm for Private Equity Firms
Bennett Stewart, Institutional Shareholder Services
Private equity (PE) firms, as a rule, think the answer is “Yes,” ing Enterprise Value within 43 industry groups was 38% for
and not without cause. Many of them have been very success- EBITDA, it was 57% for EVA.
ful using EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, As these findings suggest, private equity firms that begin to
and amortization) as a formula to measure and grow value. use EVA will be able to value companies more accurately and
EBITDA is also a critical measure of the cash flow available with greater insight into the factors determining their value.
to service debt, and the ability to service debt is usually a PE They will also be able to use EVA as a better tool to monitor
priority. their portfolio companies and keep tabs on their performance
Nevertheless, EBITDA is less correlated to market value and plans. Some PE firms may even decide to bring EVA
than is commonly thought, and it is riddled with omissions in-house for some of their portfolio companies and use it to
and distortions that make it a highly unreliable guide to how improve their decision-making. As the PE business continues
well a company is performing. We argue that there is a much to mature and become more competitive, smart firms will look
better metric for valuation and management purposes—so for every advantage they can find. For some, EVA could make
much better that PE firms should consider adopting it to the difference between success and mediocrity.
replace EBITDA or, at the very least, to complement it.
In this article, we explore the shortcomings of EBITDA A Simple Example of Why EBITDA Is a
by comparing it to EVA (Economic Value Added), which Poor Measure of Value
measures a firm’s true economic profit after deducting a full, Let’s begin with a simple example that shows why EBITDA
weighted-average cost-of-capital interest charge on the net may provide a misleading measure of value.
assets used in the business. Imagine two companies, call them A and B, that have the
EVA is effectively the exact opposite of EBITDA in the same EBITDA and projected EBITDA growth rate. If the two
following sense: It is measured after taxes, after setting aside companies also have the same risk profile, then one would be
depreciation and amortization as a proxy for the cash needed forced to conclude that their value is the same and that they
to replenish wasting assets, and after ensuring that all inves- would trade for the same multiple of EBITDA because they
tors—lenders as well as shareholders—are rewarded with are indistinguishable.
competitive returns on their capital. EVA is the bottom-line But now suppose that company B needs to invest less
profit score that directly discounts to value. capital into its business each year to produce the same
Our empirical review suggests that stock values are deter- EBITDA as company A. Can we now say for certain that one
mined by the EVA profits that companies generate, and that of them is more valuable?
EBITDA multiples are plug figures—that is, a byproduct of In fact, we can. Company B is unquestionably worth more
valuation, not a cause of it. In our analysis of the Russell 3000, than A. Its investors are entitled to the same EBITDA year by
for example, we find that whereas EBITDA explains only year while keeping more money in their pockets. Company
9% of variations in Enterprise Value, EVA explains 22%. In B’s “free cash flow”—that is, its cash flow from operations net
a second test in which we examined the values of companies of investment spending—is higher, which leaves it with more
within distinct sectors, we found, here again, that EVA has cash to distribute to investors. Put more simply and directly,
greater explanatory power. Where the median R2 in explain- company B gives investors a higher rate of return on the capital
1 For a discussion of the rules and the decisions they induce, consult “The EVA Mea- 2 A successful adoption of EVA also requires software tools to compute, analyze,
surement Formula,” by Bennett Stewart, available at https://www.issgovernance.com/ value, and report on EVA, per the specific rules chosen to measure EVA. ISS licenses
solutions/iss-analytics/iss-eva-resource-center/. software solutions for just this purpose, which are easy to implement, configure, and use.
20
15
10
0
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
EBITDA Margin (EBITDA/Sales)
that speeds decisions, enhances communication, promotes The correlation between EBITDA and EVA among those
teamwork, and supports delegating decisions to those closer firms is just 30%. Put another way, a regression of EVA to
to the action. EBITDA has an R2 of just 9%. The two measures are only
In sum, EVA, when set against EBITDA, is a far more slightly correlated. For all the reasons outlined in the paper,
comprehensive, cohesive, and value-based metric and manage- there is a great difference between EVA and EBITDA. Our
ment technique.3 PE firms would be wise to use it to measure effort next was directed at determining if one of them is a
value, and to guide and motivate managers, in their portfolio better measure of value. We began by looking at the corre-
companies. lation between EBITDA and Enterprise Value in Figure 1,
which plots EBITDA versus Enterprise Value; both variables
EBITDA versus EVA Test Results have been divided by sales, which makes it possible to compare
EVA clearly trumps EBITDA as a management technique. companies of different sizes.5 It’s a cloudy picture. The disper-
But does it beat EBITDA as a measure of stock market sion is so great that a regression of Enterprise Value to EBITDA
values? produced an R2 of only 9%. Companies plainly do not trade at
To test this proposition, we analyzed the relationships any consistent multiple of EBITDA. Of course, analysts don’t
between EBITDA, EVA, and enterprise values for Russell look at valuations relative to the whole market, but relative to
3000 companies as of March 12, 2019, excluding financials, an industry. We’ll come back to that a little later.
real estate, utilities, smaller biotech firms, and companies To examine the correlation between EVA and Enterprise
with less than $100 million in sales. This left us with 1,773 Value we need an intermediate step because, in theory, EVA
companies.4
with sales under $100 million, and 37 companies with bad or missing data.
5 Technically, the correlations and regressions were performed between the ratios
3 For a more complete description of the EVA management model, consult Best of Enterprise Value/Sales and EBITDA/Sales. Dividing by sales was necessary to size
Practice EVA, a book by Bennett Stewart (at Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/Best- adjust the variables and eliminate the spurious correlation that arises because larger
Practice-EVA-Definitive-Maximizing-Shareholder/dp/1118639383. companies tend to generate more EBITDA and trade for larger values. We also observed
4 There were 2,975 companies in the Russell “3000” as of the test date. We that Enterprise Value/Sales ratios tend to be smaller for larger, more mature firms. The
eliminated 210 financial firms, along with 75 utilities, 211 REITs and real estate devel- regression model therefore also included a “Size” variable (the natural log of the average
opment companies, 219 biotech companies with sales under $1 billion, 138 companies of sales and capital), which entered with a statistically significant negative coefficient.
20
15
MVA Margin (MVA/Sales)
10
0
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
-5
-10
EBITDA Margin (EBITDA/Sales)
does not discount to value per se. It discounts to the value Increasing MVA is thus the real key to creating wealth,
added—that is, to the spread between a company’s Enterprise adding to franchise value, and increasing the firm’s NPV, all
Value and the Capital it has invested to produce the value. We at the same time. Increasing MVA is also the key to driving
refer to this spread as “MVA,” or Market Value Added, where: shareholder returns.6
The truly important question, then, is not whether
MVA = Enterprise Value – Capital EBITDA explains Enterprise Value, but whether EBITDA
explains MVA. The short answer is no, not at all.
A company with a $1 billion Enterprise Value (market A regression of size-adjusted MVA to EBITDA produces
value of equity plus debt), for example, that has $600 million white noise, the scattered diagram shown in Figure 2, with
of total (book) capital on its balance sheet has an MVA of an R2 of just 4.8%. EBITDA is almost perfectly uncorrelated
$400 million. with MVA, just as finance theory predicts, because EBITDA
MVA is significant for three main reasons: ignores the capital side of the wealth equation.
1. MVA measures the owners’ accumulated wealth; it is We expect EVA to be much better at predicting MVA
the spread between the total money put into a business and because, as mentioned, a company’s net present value, or
the total value coming out of it. MVA, is mathematically equal to the present value of the
2. MVA represents franchise value; it’s the valuation EVA profit it is projected to earn. In the regression we used
premium above total invested capital resources that is attrib- to test this proposition, we used a firm’s prior year’s EVA as a
utable to the firm’s distinctive organizational capabilities and proxy for its projected EVA. In effect, we assumed that each
other intangible assets. firm’s EVA will persist at its current level forever. It’s a gross
3. MVA measures the firm’s aggregate NPV. MVA is a
summing up in the market’s mind of the net present value of 6 The mathematical link between EVA, MVA, and shareholder returns asserted here
has been derived and tested, and is available in a separate ISS white paper, “The Link
all capital projects, those a firm already has in place plus those Between TSR and EVA,” available at https://www.issgovernance.com/solutions/iss-ana-
projected to materialize down the road. lytics/iss-eva-resource-center/.
20
Valuation: MVA Margin (MVA/Sales)
15
10
0
-120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
-5
-10
Profitability: EVA Margin (EVA/Sales)
simplification that ignores the potential for growth in EVA, Second, when EVA is zero or near zero, MVA tends to be
but it shows how well EVA performs compared to EBITDA close to zero, too. Just as finance theory predicts, investors are
with the same constraint. unwilling to pay much if any premium value for firms that
The regression of MVA to EVA,7 as shown in Figure 3, deliver only a basic, break-even rate of return on their capital.
shows an R2 of 21.4%. That’s not terrific—but this is a simple They will only pay for the book capital in the business. This
model, applied regardless of industry and ignoring growth shows that the cost of capital we have computed is a real cost,
potential. And the analysis demonstrates that EVA is fundamen- with a real market impact. Until a firm earns it, it does not
tally more correlated–-in fact, five times as correlated—with create wealth and it cannot produce exceptional shareholder
enhancing NPV and creating wealth than EBITDA. returns.
The correlation between EVA and MVA, however, is Observe also that the companies falling short of their cost
much stronger and more interesting when firms are clustered of capital and that are producing negative EVA tend to trade
into groups. In this analysis, we ranked companies low to high for an MVA near zero, no matter how negative EVA gets to be.
by their EVA/sales ratios, then we assigned them to 35 bins of This last finding, surprising at first hearing, is a sign of
50 companies each, thus covering 1,750 firms (or all but the market sophistication. Investors have learned from experience
23 companies with the very highest EVA-to-sales ratios). We that managers in negative EVA businesses feel pressure and
then computed the median EVA/sales and MVA/sales ratios respond. They restructure operations, redirect resources, and
for each of the 35 bins and plotted the pairs shown in Figure rethink strategies, or they liquidate assets or sell the company.
4, with the following conclusions: They manage to raise EVA to zero or near zero, or realize
First, note that once EVA turns positive, EVA multiplies something close to the net book value of their assets in a sale.
into MVA along a straight line. There’s something else going on, too. The negative EVA
group also contains emerging start-up companies that are not
yet covering their cost of capital but are forecast to reach that
7 As with the EBITDA, the variables are common sized, by dividing by sales, and
the regression model includes a term for company size, as MVA/Sales ratios tend to be
mark someday.
smaller for larger, more mature firms.
500%
Valuation: MVA Margin (MVA/Sales)
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Profitability: EVA Margin (EVA/Sales)
-100%
-200%
For whichever reason, the market sets a floor on the value Valuations within Industry Groups
of negative EVA companies considered as a portfolio.8 This is The regressions we’ve reviewed so far assume that investors
another critical valuation insight that EVA gets but EBITDA assign the same multiples to all Russell 3000 firms regardless
does not. of industry. It’s more realistic to assume that valuation multi-
Given this relationship, we reran the regression of MVA ples cluster within industry groups. We therefore assigned
to EVA by setting the value for EVA to 0 whenever a firm’s all 1,773 companies into 44 groups using standard industry
EVA was negative. In effect, we assumed that the expected classification (SIC) codes and performed the same regressions
long-run EVA of all negative EVA companies is zero. It’s a within each group.
bold assumption, but does it work? As an example, here is the plot of size-adjusted EBITDA
The regression R2 did drop a tad, from 22.4% to 21.9% versus Enterprise Value for the 34 companies in the Aerospace
(because there is, in fact, a slight valuation penalty as EVA and Defense industry. There is an evident upward slope
becomes more negative), but in exchange, the coefficient on connecting the dots.
EVA increased from 17.6 to 18.5 and the t-statistic rose from The R2 is 42%; the coefficient on EBITDA is 17.6,
18.2 to 19.5 (99.9999% confidence). The new model is better. with a t-stat of 4.8 (significant at the 99.9% confidence level).
It more closely fits the actual line connecting EVA and MVA. Enterprise Values tend to increase as a multiple of EBITDA
It sets a more positive and significant slope to EVA when in this industry, as in many others. The statistics confirm it:
EVA is positive and sets the slope on EVA to zero when EVA clustering companies by industries makes sense.
is negative.9 We use this version of the model in the industry Good as that is, EVA is much better. A regression of size-
regression runs discussed below. adjusted MVA to EVA has an R2 of 62%10 with a coefficient
on EVA of 32.8 and t-stat of 6.6.
8 This is not a new phenomenon or peculiarity of the current market. The relation
between EVA and MVA documented in this study was also documented in 1991 with the
publication of The Quest for Value, by Bennett Stewart. The assumption that negative R2 a tad, but the coefficient and t-stat on it were much smaller and much less significant
EVA companies as a group will rebound, restructure, or sell and generate a long-run than on the EVA positive variable we chose to ignore it.
breakeven for EVA is apparently a permanent feature of the valuation landscape. 10 Technically, the R2 of size-adjusted EVA with MVA was 58%, but it is 62% versus
9 We also tested a second EVA variable that was set to zero when EVA was positive, Enterprise Value because a portion of the portion of the variation in Enterprise Value is
in other words, it was populated only when EVA was negative. Adding it increased the due to variation in Capital. Consult the Technical Appendix for more details.
8
Valuation Margin (Enterprise Value/Sales)
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
EBITDA Margin (EBITDA/Sales)
EVA, note, packs almost twice the punch of EBITDA. • The median R2 of the correlation with Enterprise
A 1% increase in a firm’s EVA/sales ratio tends to increase Value across all industries was 32% for EBITDA and 47%
its MVA wealth premium by 32.8% of sales; a 1% increase for EVA. The EVA advantage is even larger—a median R2 of
in its EBITDA-to-sales margin increases Enterprise Value by 58% versus 38% for EBITDA—when we limit our analysis
only 17.6% of sales; it’s half as helpful. But not only that, to the 29 industries that contain 20 or more companies and
EBITDA increases a firm’s Enterprise Value while saying where EBITDA or EVA are significant valuation variables. In
nothing about how much capital was required to do it. EVA, those cases, EVA thus has approximately 15% to 20% more
however, increases MVA. It tells us how much the firm’s Enter- explanatory power.
prise Value increased above the capital that the firm invested, • EVA was more significant than EBITDA in 22 indus-
which is a much more significant result. tries, and EBITDA in 8. And three of those eight industries
We ran the same regressions for all 44 industries. As contained very few observations: Biotech (with more than $1
summarized in the Appendix, we found the following: billion in sales) was represented by only 12 companies, Inter-
• Neither EVA or EBITDA performed well in nine net Services by 11, and Wireless Communication by just 9.
industries, including Tech Hardware, Software, Pharma, Life • EVA was significantly better in most capital-intensive
Sciences, Internet Media, and Health Care Equipment and industries, such as Auto and Suppliers, Oil and Gas, Media,
Supplies. In dynamic businesses like these, the percentage of Communication Equipment, Construction, Household
Enterprise Values attributable to current earnings and cash Durables, Paper and Packaging, and Semiconductors. That’s
flow—what we call “current operations value,” or COV— expected, because EVA explicitly recognizes the cost of capital.
tends to be pretty low (in some cases, as little as 25%), and • EVA also outperforms EBITDA in Commercial Services
the value attributable to what we call “future growth value” and Supplies, Food and Beverage Retailing, Specialty Retail,
quite high. In such cases, the current levels of EBITDA and and Professional Services, which might be surprising; after all,
EVA are likely to fail to convey much information.11 these are businesses that aren’t especially asset intensive. The
11 In the analysis for the tests for these nine industries with low COV and high FGV, reason to expect that EVA would significantly outperform EBITDA since EVA discounts to
we did not attempt to model future growth expectations. Had we done so, there is every NPV while EBITDA does not.
8
Valuation: MVA Margin (MVA/Sales)
0
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
-2
Profitability: EVA Margin (EVA/Sales)
cost of capital, though, can still be a considerable charge and we have documented in this paper follow as a natural
an important valuation factor relative to the meager margins by-product.
that these companies typically work with.
The finding that EVA dominates EBITDA as a measure Using EVA to Determine Enterprise Value
of stock market value will no doubt surprise many. After all, Given that EVA is an effective valuation metric, how, specif-
sell-side research reports and the business media are rife with ically, can PE firms use it to measure value? After all, EVA
references to EBITDA and notably scarce on EVA. But our does not discount to share price or market value per se; EVA
findings don’t imply or require that investors literally compute discounts to net present value—that is, to MVA, which is a
or analyze EVA in determining value. Some investors do—ISS company’s Enterprise Value minus the Capital invested in its
provides EVA-based research to an expanding clientele of insti- business:
tutional investors, for example—but many do not explicitly
consider EVA. No matter. MVA = Enterprise Value – Capital
As has been noted, the present value of EVA and the net
present value of cash flows are mathematically identical. So By rearrangement, Enterprise Value is:
long as most investors measure intrinsic value by analyzing
and discounting cash flows (or indirectly, by looking at indica- Enterprise Value = Capital + MVA
tors that help them gauge the magnitude, quality, timing, and
risk of cash flows), then EVA and MVA, and by extension, And MVA, the company-wide NPV, is equal to the
EVA and Enterprise Value, will be strongly correlated. present value of EVA:
This is a very important point. One does not have
to believe in “EVA” to think it is sensible to use EVA. As Enterprise Value = Capital + The Present Value of EVA
long as one subscribes to the view that valuations follow
discounted cash flows, the significance of EVA as a valua- The formula says that the enterprise value of a
tion metric and the correlation to creating wealth that business viewed as a going concern is the amount of
capital money put into it plus the present value of the
6 Commercial Services and Supplies EBITDA 55 22% 6.7 (4.1) -0.06 (-0.3)
8 Conglomerates and Machinery EBITDA 103 68% 16.5 (14.8) -0.18 (-2.9)
13 Electronics and Office Equipment EBITDA 56 45% 11.9 (6.1) -0.48 (-3.1)
16 Food and Beverage (ex Tobacco) EBITDA 52 65% 18.9 (9.8) -0.42 (-4.0)
17 Food and Staples Retailing EBITDA 21 41% 12.0 (4.0) -0.02 (-0.6)
19 Health Care Equipment and Supplies EBITDA 70 4% -2.4 (-0.6) -0.57 (-1.5)
22 Household and Personal Care EBITDA 23 42% 20.0 (4.2) -0.24 (-1.4)
continued
32 Oil & Gas Exploration and Production EBITDA 99 29% 5.1 (6.2) -0.14 (-1.0)
41 Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods EBITDA 24 46% 16.3 (4.0) 0.07 (0.5)
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