Short Course on

Petroleum Reserve Estimation, Production,

and Production Sharing Contract (PSC)

PMRE, BUET,
29-30 April, 2008
Resource and Reserve Classification System
Resource Assessment
 Prospect Evaluation
• A prospect is identified and mapped on the basis of geophysical
and geological data. Lead is an indication of presence of play.
• Quantitative data for the prospect is derived from the most
likely geological model and is given with a range of uncertainty.
• Risk is assigned to the probability of discovery of a minimum
volume derived from volumetric estimate, and is evaluated with
respect to the geological risk.
• Reliability of of the prospect definition will depend on the
adequacy of the database and on the choice of reliable models
for the relevant geological factors.
• Risk assessment is an analysis of the reliability of occurrence of
the geological models relevant to the prospect under evaluation.
• For each prospect a value of probability of discovery is
estimated

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 2

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation
• For resource estimation in any basin,
petroleum system, prospects and leads
are identified on the basis of
geophysical and geological data.
• Estimation of hydrocarbon resources in
any basin/petroleum system is made
following volumetric method and using
risk factor.

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 3

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation

• Hydrocarbon is distributed in the earth’s

crust.
• Hydrocarbon deposits are concentrated
in relatively few basins.
• Exploration is not an equal chance
game.

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 4

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation

• Four different concepts of exploration

– Basin framework
– Petroleum System
– Play
– Prospect

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 5

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation

• Basin Framework
• Sedimentary basin containing source rock,
reservoir, trap and migration in proper timing
• Petroleum System Framework
• Defined as a volume of sedimentary rock
containing hydrocarbon and charged by
source rock. In a defined system there will be
single source rock.
DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 6
Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation

• Play
• Play is the elemental part of a
petroleum system, and recognized as
having one or more hydrocarbon
accumulations identified by common
geological character of reservoir, trap,
and seal; timing and migration;
preservation.

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 7

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation
• Prospect Definition
• Geological Model and risk assessment
• Reservoir
• Presence of Reservoir facies
• Effective pore volume
• Trap Mechanism
• Presence of mapped structure
• Effective seal mechanism
• Petroleum charge
• Presence of mature source rock (sufficient)
• Effective migration
• Retention after accumulation

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 8

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect definition
GEOLOGICASL FATURES
P ro bability
Reservoir trap Charge Retention
facto rs
Vo lumetric
Facies Porosity Mapping Seal Source Migration Retention
facto rs
Structural shape,
VOLUMETRIC ESTIMATION

Vo lume
Hydro carbo n
Co lumn
Reservo ir
Thickness

P o ro sity

Net/Gro ss ratio

Saturatio n

P ro po rtio n o f o il
& gas

Reco very facto r

Fo rmatio n
Vo lume facto r
Relatio n between geo lo gical mo dels and input parameters fo r vo lumetric estimtio n
So urce: CCOP Guidelines fo r risk assessment o f petro leum pro spects, 2000. www.cco p.o r.th
DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 9
Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Prospect Evaluation

• Geological risk assessment requires

evaluation of geological factors that are
critical to the discovery of hydrocarbons in a
mapped prospect.
• The probability of discovery is defined as the
product of the following major probability
factors, each of which must be evaluated with
respect to presence and effectiveness.
• Reservoir, Trap, Charging, Retention and
Accumulation
DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 10
Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Presence of Reservoir Facies
Data Indirect data,
Relaiabilituy Direc data, Limited data,
Direc data, mo re Seismic
P ro ximal disco ntino us
Depo sitio nal distal depo sit sequence
depo sit depo sit
Enviro nment analysis
Shalo o w
0.9 -1.0 0.7 - 0.8 06 - 0.7 0.4-0.6
marine
Co astal,
0.8 -1.0 0.7 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6
deltaic tidal

Submarine fan 0.7 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5 0.1- 0.3

Carbo nates 0.8 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.5

Lacustrine
0.7 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5
deltaic
A lluvial fan,
B raided
stream, 0.7 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5
M eandering
channel
Eo lian 0.8 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.6 0.4 - 0.6

Feactures
0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5 0.2 - 0.4 0.1- 0.3
basement
Fracrured
0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5 0.2 - 0.4 0.1- 0.3
po ro us lava
P ro bability Scheme. P resence o f effective reservo ir

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 11

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
 Reservoir Depth Vs. Data

Data Reliability Direc data, Direct but less Limited data,

P ro ximal data, mo re uncertain Indirect data
depo sit distal depo sit co nditio ns
Reservo ir depth
Ho mo geneo us,
0.9-1.0 0.8 - 0.9 0.7 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.7
clean reservo ir
M ixed unclean
0.8-1.0 0.7 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6
reservo ir
Ho mo geneo us,
0.8 - 0.9 0.7 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.5
clean reservo ir
M ixed unclean
0.7 - 0.9 0.6 - 0.7 0.5 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5
reservo ir
Ho mo geneo us,
0.7 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.5
clean reservo ir
M ixed unclean
0.6 - 0.9 0.3 - 0.5 0.2 - 0.4 0.1- 0.3
reservo ir
Reservoir depth vs. data
Lat e uplif t Take maximum burial into consideration
Calcite cement ation Consider regional studies
Illit isat ion Regional studies, clay content
Dolomitisation Consider regional studies
Early mirgat ion M ay preserve reservoir porosity

Secondary porosit y Pressure/solution st udies et c.

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 12

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
Presence of effective structural closure
Data Reliability 2D seismic
3D seismic
Dense grid Open grid Very o pen grid

Lo w structural
0.9 -1.0 0.9-1.0 0.8 - 1.0 0.7 - 0.9
co mplex
High structural
0.7 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7
co mplex
Lo w relief,
uncertain depth 0.6 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.6
co nversio n
Lo w structural
0.9 - 1.0 0.8 - 1.0 0.7 - 0.9 0.5 - 0.8
co mplex
High structural
0.7 - 0.9 0.6 - 0.9 0.4 - 0.8 0.3 - 0.7
co mplex
Lo w relief,
uncertain depth 0.5 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.5
co nversio n
Lo w structural
0.9 -1.0 0.7 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7
co mplex
High structural
0.4 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.5 0.1- 0.4
co mplex
Lo w relief,
uncertain depth 0.3 - 0.7 0.2 - 0.6 0.1- 0.5 0.1- 0.4
co nversio n

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 13

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
Probability of an effective sealing mechanism
Seal Quality
Seal Mechanism
Top Structural Very Good Good Acceptable Poor
Bottom Side
Surface Style
A nticlines,
B urried Highs,
Co nfo rm N/A B uild ups, 0.9 -1.0 0.8 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.6
Faulted
Structures
Faulted
Unco nfo rm N/A 0.8 - 0.9 0.7 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.5
Structures
Onlap, Lo w
Co nfo rm Unco nfo rmity 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.5 0.3 - 0.4 0.1- 0.3
stand wedge
Do wn faulted
Co nfo rm Faults 0.6 - 0.8 0.5 -.06 0.3 - 0.5 0.1- 0.3
Structures
Facies
Co nfo rm Shale o ut 0.6 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.6 0.1- 0.3
Change
Subcro p
Unco nfo rm Co nfo rm 0.4 - 0.5 0.3 - .07 0.2 - 0.4 0.1- 0.3
Structures
Probibility of Effective Seal Mechanism
Salt, A nhydrite, carbo nates Very go o d sealing pro perties
Thick shales Go o d sealing pro perties
Thin Shales A cceptable to go o d ealing P ro pertiers
B asalt A ccetable to go o d sealing pro perties
Faults cutting to p surface P o o r to acceptable sealing pro perties
Faults P lanes Depend o n sand/shale o r shale /sand

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 14

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
Probability of effective source rock with respect to quantity
and maturity
Depo sitio nal Restricted marine M ixed marine o r Deltaic
Enviro nment o r Lacustrine Lacustrine enviro nment with
enviro nment with enviro nment with mo stly humic
co ncentrated dispersed o rganic matter
sapro po lic o rganic sapro po lic o rganic (terrestrial: mo stly
Data Reliability matter matter gas)
Sufficient
0.9 -1.0 0.8 - 1.0 0.8 - 1.0
Vo lume
M arginal
0.5 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.7
Vo lume
M arginal
0.3 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.5 0.2 - 0.5
M ature
Sufficient
0.7 - 0.9 0.6 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.8
Vo lume
M arginal
0.4 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.6
Vo lume
M arginal
0.2 - 0.5 01- 0.4 01- 0.4
M ature
Sufficient
0.5 - 0.8 0.4 - 0.7 0.4 - 0.7
Vo lume
M arginal
0.3 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.6 0.3 - 0.6
Vo lume
M arginal
0.1- 0.4 0.1- 0.4 0.1- 0.4
M ature
Sufficient
0.4 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.7
Vo lume
M arginal
0.2 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.5 0.2 - 0.5
Vo lume
M arginal
0.1- 0.4 0.1- 0.3 0.1- 0.3
M ature

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 15

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08
Probability of effective migration and timing
Timing Trap
Trap formed
Trap formed formation
when source
before onset and timing of
rock
of migration migration
overcooked
Migration overlapping
Local Migration 0.9 -1.0 0.4 - 0.8 0.1 - 0.4

Lateral Migration
0.8 - 0.9 0.4 - 0.7 0.1 - 0.3
w ithout barriers
Lateral Migration
0.5 - 0.8 0.2 - 0.5 0.1 - 0.3
w ith barriers
Vertical Migration
0.7 - 0.9 0.3 - 0.6 0.1 - 0.3
w ithout barriers
Vertical Migration
0.4 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.4 0.1 - 0.2
w ith barriers
Long Distance
0.4 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.4 0.1 - 0.2
"fill-spill"
Trap in the
shadow of 0.2 - 0.4 0.1 - 0.3 0.1
migration
Probability of Effective Migration and Timing

DCE-PMRE. BUET, Prospect 16

Evaluation.29-30, Apr. 08