Wyckoff Watchlist UK

6 May 2020

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Featured Stocks Today
BREAKOUTS:

POLYMETAL (UPDATE)
CENTRALNIC (UPDATE)

SPRINGS:

HISCOX (UPDATE)
PEARSON (UPDATE)

LONG TERM STRUCTURES:

SHORTS:

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP (UPDATE)

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You will see in the long term section of tonight’s report SPGP
is analysed, this is a gold miner ETF and applying the Wyckoff Supply Shoots
method to SPGP’s chart helps add conviction to my bullish
thesis as well as the numerous economic / fundamental
reasons why precious metals could be a good asset allocation.
POLY is a precious metal miner. As per the previous chart with
BMY, this chart coincidently helps illustrate the point of
buying what looked like a Wyckoff Wave Pattern Sign of
Strength / breakout but actually turned out to be an Upthrust
Action (UTA) in Phase B. Note at the second UTA in Phase B
multiple supply shoots suggesting price is struggling to break
the Buying Climax (BC) resistance. However, we can now see
supply decreasing and Higher Lows (HLs) forming as shown by
the black circles, this is structurally bullish.
Forward Analysis Bull Case:
• Looking for a breakout above the BC
resistance and a re-accumulation
structure to form between the UTA
resistance (dashed black line) and BC
level. A Phase C Spring type action
return back to the BC level would be
THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR POLY IS FROM THE 18 DEC 2019 my preferred method of entry.
REPORT, PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE. • Alternatively, a Spring type action of
the Shakeout (SO) and Secondary
Test (ST) level could provide the
Spring type entry I’m after.
• I prefer Springs to breakouts!

Structural Higher
Lows (HLs) forming
and supply
decreasing, bullish.

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 SoSBB
POLY breaking out from a Wyckoff re-
accumulation structure and note the SoSBB
entry point. POLY has exposure to gold,
which from a fundamental and Wyckoff
standpoint I am bullish on. The next optimal
Wyckoff entry will be a BURBB. Note how
supply has remained low in Phase C and D,
suggesting the Composite Operator (CO) is
not exiting their positions. Successful Higher Low Test
reverses on increased
demand, bullish.

THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR POLY IS FROM THE 3 FEB 2020
REPORT, PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.

Structural Higher
Lows (HLs) forming
and supply
decreasing, bullish.

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 Previous BURBB Entry
THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR POLY IS FROM
As price structures develop so does my Wyckoff analysis Previous SoSBB Entry
to feed into the Bayesian decision making model
THE 30 MAR 2020 REPORT, PLEASE SEE
process. What was thought to be the SoSBB and BURBB THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.
is now currently known to be an Upthrust Action (UTA)
in Phase B. Remember, the Wyckoff method enables us
to contextualise what happens within the structure and
at particular points. Identifying these potential
particular points are of the upmost important when
attempting to take advantage of the fractal patterns the
markets and financial assets form (PSS, SoSBB, BURBB).
The SoSBB and BURBB entries were briefly profitable.
The current PSS is performing well and so far has
correctly identified and taken advantage of the Phase C
Spring in the Wyckoff re-accumulation structure. By
having a repeatable process you are right for the right
reasons and when you’re wrong (such as the SoSBB and
BURBB entry) you / I know why. Important to note you
can be wrong on the labelling / identification but still
make money if your price targets are achieved.

I am looking for a SoSBB entry above the 1,393p resistance level. However, the current
rally looks extended so a period of consolidation underneath the resistance level prior
to the breakout would be constructive (assuming supply remains low).

Note the numerous demand tails in Phase C

indicating supply is being absorbed by the
Strong Hands, this is bullish in the context of
a possible Phase C Spring type action.

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 Previous BURBB Entry
In the 30 March 2020 report I commented “I am THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR POLY IS FROM SoSBB Entry
looking for a SoSBB entry above the 1,393p resistance THE 6 APRIL 2020 REPORT, PLEASE SEE
level. However, the current rally looks extended so a THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.
period of consolidation underneath the resistance
level prior to the breakout would be constructive Previous SoSBB Entry
(assuming supply remains low)”. There was another
brief pullback that quickly reversed so I took an ‘early’
reduced size SoSBB entry as price closed above
1,393p. My trading tactics are to increase the position
as price overcomes 1,436p. Supply continues to
remain low, which is encouraging for the bullish case.

Note the numerous demand tails in Phase C

indicating supply is being absorbed by the
Strong Hands, this is bullish in the context of
a possible Phase C Spring type action.

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POLY showing relative strength as it continues
its upwards march following the large Wyckoff
re-accumulation structure breakout. I am now
looking for a Wyckoff Wave Pattern or small
Wyckoff re-accumulation structure to form
between the Sign of Strength (SoS) level of
1,728.50 and the Backing Up Action (BU) level of
1,570. A successful breakout above the 1,728.50 Previous BURBB Entry
level after a period of such consolidation would
acts as a BURBB entry. Note how long term
supply and effort is decreasing (as shown by the SoSBB Entry
black arrow) this adds to the bullish conviction.
Previous SoSBB Entry

Note the numerous demand tails in

Phase C indicating supply is being
absorbed by the Strong Hands, this is
bullish in the context of a possible
Phase C Spring type action.

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CNIC potentially forming a large Wyckoff Wave Pattern
and currently consolidating under the 97p resistance
level (very close to Jesse Livermore’s psychological
level, in this case, of £1). As with the prior pullback I
would like to see, from the bullish perspective, supply
and price volatility remain low and consolidate further
to absorb weak hands prior to a SoSBB above 97p.

THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR CNIC IS FROM

THE 29 APRIL 2020 REPORT, PLEASE SEE
THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.

Note how supply remains low on a relative

basis and price volatility decreases as
consolidation under resistance occurs. This is
bullish given the structural context.

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 Bullish reversal and
characteristics as price
approaches the 97p line
of least resistance.
Note how supply remains
low on a relative basis and
price volatility decreases
as consolidation under
resistance occurs. This is
bullish given the
structural context.

In the 29 April report I commented “CNIC potentially forming a large

Wyckoff Wave Pattern and currently consolidating under the 97p
resistance level (very close to Jesse Livermore’s psychological level, in
this case, of £1). As with the prior pullback I would like to see, from the
bullish perspective, supply and price volatility remain low and
consolidate further to absorb weak hands prior to a SoSBB above 97p.”.
Note how price continues to consolidate under the 97p level and the
bullish candlestick today. I continue to wait for a SoSBB entry above 97p
as supply and price volatility continues to remain low on a relative basis.

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THIS SLIDE & ANALYSIS FOR HSX IS FROM
THE 4 MAY 2020 REPORT, PLEASE SEE THE
FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.
HSX potentially undergoing a Secondary Test (ST) in Phase A of a developing
Wyckoff accumulation structure following a potential Selling Climax (SC) and
Automatic Rally (AR) which acted as a Change of Character (CHoCH). Of
course, Wyckoffians would now expect some form of trading range to
develop following a CHoCH. Note the long demand tails on the Preliminary
Support (PS), SC and ST candlesticks, this is bullish and indicates absorption of
supply (remember the structural context of where this happens). I am looking
for a PSS entry around the 654p level should price close below that level and
recover within 2 trading days. The question will be whether demand can halt
the clear level of high supply that is present (black circle). There is favourable
risk vs reward due to the large AR which reversed at 895p.

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The main reason for featuring HSX in tonight’s report is help teach the
Pivot Spring Strategy that is implementable across all time frames due
to the fractal nature of the market. Note how well the 4 hour PSS
entry worked to play the expected Phase A Secondary Test (ST). As we
progress throughout the Bear Market there will be fantastic Pivot
Spring buying opportunities at Phase B Secondary Tests, Phase C
Springs and then in the Wyckoff re-accumulation structures as we
transition from the Phase 1 Accumulation into the Phase 2 Markup of
the Wyckoff Price Cycle. It is when a large quantity of stocks are in
Phase C of their respective Wyckoff accumulation structures I will start
to campaign positions for the next bull market. The reason I’m
currently not campaigning stocks (other than precious metal miners) is
due to the majority being in Phase A / early Phase B, therefore, it is an
inefficient use of capital. A more efficient use of capital, to my mind, is
to swing trade positions more actively, such as HSX, to increase and
free up capital when Phase C Spring opportunities occur in due course.
By focusing on the when to buy (for me, PSS, SoSBB & BURBB)
substantial profits will be made in the next bull market when the
‘trend becomes our friend’ again. Those who are proactively prepared
and with a sound knowledge base of when to buy will perform best.

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PSON was covered in the 25 April 2020 Wyckoff Watchlist video report
as a potential PSS candidate as it underwent a potential Phase A
Secondary Test (ST). This position was at a circa 10% profit and has
now pulled back to support of 436.80p. Note the large increase in
effort on the final candlestick indicating supply is present. Currently,
there is only one close below support so we’ll watch for a return back
into the trading range within 2 days to satisfy the PSS criteria. It will be
interesting whether supply significantly decreases and there is an
increase in demand on the potential return to the trading range. I
don’t take PSS trades if the close below support is > 8%. Why?
Because the probabilities of a successful outcome diminish the deeper
the pullback. An interesting spot for PSON.

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 LLOY’s running into overhead supply as it tried to overcome the long term resistance of 71.35p and more immediate resistance of 66.50p (black Supply shoots
dashed line). Long term I still don’t understand how banks business models work in negative rate environments (not sure anyone does) and it seems with large effort
a matter of when not if that will happen in many western countries. Through the Wyckoff lens due to the level of supply that came on the two early warning
breakout attempt (supply shoot) candle bars further testing action is probable. First prior support levels are 55.50p and 51p – these would be my sign of pullback
targets. If continued high supply comes to the market this could quickly turn into a distribution structure. Note the increase in price volatility in the likely.
second half of Phase B onwards and also the Lower Highs (LHs) and Lower Lows (LLs) forming, as shown by the black circles.

THIS IS THE SLIDE & ANALYSIS FROM THE 13

JAN 2020 REPORT FOR LLOY, PLEASE SEE
THE FOLLOWING SLIDE FOR THE UPDATE.

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LLOY’s formed a large re-distribution structure on the weekly time frame. Note
the behavioural characteristics in Phase C. Successive large supply shoots
indicate supply is the dominant force. I am looking for another short entry in
LLOY. See the next slide which focuses on the Major Sign of Weakness (MSoW)
on the daily time frame.

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 Note the strong supply
and price rejection at
circa 35p.

LLOY on the daily time frame and note the price rejection at
circa 35p on increased supply. This is an area I am looking to
short LLOY as the risk vs reward is favourable. I still think this
Bear Market has further to go and, historically, recessions, let
alone depressions, are not good for banks. I don’t doubt
there will be an optimal time to buy LLOY’s on the long side.
But for me it isn’t now. It’s later on during a Phase C Spring
(should the opportunity arise).

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If you’re looking for user friendly and comprehensive trading software I would
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I personally use the ‘Pro’ subscription and there is an affiliate link below.
The charts within the Wyckoff Watchlist Reports are from TradingView.
https://tradingview.go2cloud.org/SH4GG

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