DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

10 May, 2011

MARKET S-TERM L-TERM STRATEGY/ ENTRY OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

MULTI-DAY MULTI-WEEK POSITION LEVEL

EUR/USD Ð Ï SHORT 2 1.4490 1.4150/1.4000 (Entered on 06/05/2011) 1.4490

GBP/USD Î Ï Sell limit 3 1.6620 1.6490/1.6308/1.6166 1.6750

USD/JPY Î Î Buy limit 3 80.50 81.50/82.83/85.54 79.50

USD/CHF Ï Ð Buy limit 3 0.8655 0.8760/0.8879/0.9012 0.8550

Ron William, CMT, MSTA USD/CAD Î Ð Buy stop 3 0.9714 0.9825/1.0000/1.0210 0.9630

AUD/USD Ð Ï Biased towards shorts under 1.0830.

GBP/JPY Î Ï Buy limit 3 130.50 131.50/134.27/136.12 129.50

EUR/JPY Î Ï Possibly looking to buy.

EUR/GBP Î Ï Buy limit 3 0.8740 0.8840/0.9043/0.9150 0.8640

Bijoy Kar, CFA
EUR/CHF Ð Î SHORT 1 1.2730 1.2350 (Entered on 06/05/2011) 1.2660

GOLD Ð Ï Sell Stop 3 1474 1442/1411/1380 1490

SILVER Ð Ï Await fresh signal.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthe stopwillbemovedtotheentry

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES pointforanearriskͲfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis
Please read the disclaimer and the published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.
disclosures which can be found at
the end of this report
MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
EUR/USD
EUR/USD
10 May, 2011

Initial demand seen close to trend-line support.

­ EUR/USD’s sharp correction, which was helped by a confluence of DeMark

exhaustion signals, is weighing on the major trend.

­ We now require a break under 1.4158 to confirm a false break over daily
channel resistance last week at 1.4941.

­ Today’s failure to break under yesterday’s 1.4256 low suggests that we are
potentially in the midst of a corrective phase. We have also seen initial
demand close to trend-line support from 1.3429.

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP ­ Scope is now seen for a return to 1.4420 initially and then possibly the
1.4500 region. Above 1.4680 is required to dampen the current short-
term bearish stance.

EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP L-T TREND STRATEGY

Ð Ï Short 2 at 1.4490, Obj: 1.4150/1.4000, Stop: 1.4490.

www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
2
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
GBP/USD 10 May, 2011

Lower high sought for a continuation of the corrective phase.

­ GBP/USD has broken back below 1.6431 weakening the near-term

structure.
­ Last week also saw the formation of a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick
reversal pattern, warning of further losses ahead.
­ This now reduces the potency of the prior break over long-term trend-line
resistance off 2.1162.
­ Below 1.5937 is required to weaken the medium-term bullish structure.
­ We view the fall from 1.6747 to 1.6270 as being the initial leg in a
corrective phase. Scope is now seen for a swing higher and the formation
of a lower high in the region between 1.6574 and 1.6625.

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Ï Sell limit 3 at 1.6620, Objs: 1.6490/1.6308/1.6166, Stop: 1.6750.

www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
3
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
USD/JPY 10 May, 2011

Initial support seen close to 61.8% retrace.

­ USD/JPY’s sharp bearish slide has found initial support near 80.00.

­ We note that so far demand has been witnessed close to the 61.8% retrace
of the 76.25-85.54 rise, at 79.80. We see scope for a higher low to form in
this region, but await the development of short-term structure to help
confirm a recovery.

­ Only a sustained close below 80.00 would offer risk to 78.80, which would
possibly lead to a selling climax before a resumption higher.

­ Bulls need to push back above strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then 84.50
(16th Dec peak), to resume the new long-term bull cycle.

­ A close above here opens up 85.52/85.93 (September 2010 peak), to add

further confirmation that a longer-term upside reversal is in place.

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Î Buy limit 3 at 80.50, Objs: 81.50/82.83/85.54, Stop: 79.50.

www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426
4
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
USD/CHF 10 May, 2011

Scope for further recovery potential.

­ USD/CHF has possibly completed the phase of weakness initiated from

0.9340, where an extension lower has subsequently met 0.8554.
­ This broke below the support of a daily channel formation meeting our
target zone near 0.8650.
­ Failure to find support in the 0.8650 region then led to the evolution of an
hourly falling wedge. This bullish structure has since triggered a recovery
higher, confirming a false break lower.
­ We now seek a short-term squeeze lower, for the creation of a higher low
and a further recovery leg.
­ A return back towards 0.8835 would be sought initially.

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Ï Ð Buy limit 3 at 0.8655, Objs: 0.8760/0.8879/0.9012, Stop: 0.8550.

www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

5
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
USD/CAD 10 May, 2011

Sharp reversal from multi-year lows.

­ USD/CAD has reversed sharply from its multi-year lows, after breaking
below the support of a multi-month falling channel. Back over 0.9974 is
required to confirm a false break lower, weakening the prior bearish
structure.

­ Bulls need to sustain a close above 0.9722 (18th April high) to offer further
upside extension into 0.9825 (TDST line) and 0.9968 (17th March high),
then towards 1.0000 (parity level).

­ Immediate support can be found at 0.9565 (old wedge pattern ceiling),

then 0.9446 (29 April low) and 0.9286 (projection). Only a close below here
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP would unlock eventual probes towards the 2007 major low at 0.9059.

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Ð Buy stop 3 at 0.9714, Objs: 0.9825/1.0000/1.0210, Stop: 0.9630.

www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
6
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
AUD/USD 10 May, 2011

Below 1.0830 maintains our near-term bearish stance.

­ AUD/USD’s sharp reversal has found initial support close to the 38.2%
retrace of the 0.9706-1.1012 rise, at 1.0513. This reversal was triggered by
an evening star pattern in the daily timeframe.

­ We now look for a sustained break below 1.0513, to open further

weakness into 1.0443 (TDST line) and 1.0359 (50% Fib).

­ While below 1.0830 the bounce from 1.0537 is viewed as being corrective
in nature, with a further bout of weakness anticipated.

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP ­ With this in mind, we seek a lower high and will monitor short-term
structure, should weakness re-assert.

AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Ð Ï Biased towards shorts under 1.0830.

www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
7
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
GBP/JPY 10 May, 2011

Approaches a region where longs are favoured again.

­ GBP/JPY continues to exhibit features on long-term charts that suggest a

larger recovery remains possible.
­ We have seen a confirmed false break lower to 122.36 and in the process a
push back over the 50 week moving average. Combined with this, long-
term trend-line resistance has been tested as support.
­ Recent trade has also seen an initial test of the 50% retrace of the 122.36-
140.01 rise. We view this region as offering a reasonable zone for the
consideration of longs.
­ Combined with this we have also re-tested the 50 week moving average
after pushing back over it earlier in the year.
­ A final squeeze lower is now sought within the short-term timeframe for
the creation of a higher low versus 122.36.
GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
­ Longer-term a push back under 122.36 is required to dampen the recovery
potential.

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Ï Buy limit 3 at 130.50, Objs: 131.50/134.27/136.12, Stop: 129.50.

www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

8
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
EUR/JPY 10 May, 2011

Approaches a region where demand is expected to manifest.

­ EUR/JPY has experienced a strong recovery higher from 106.61, peaking

at 123.33.
­ The corrective phase that has followed has broken under the 38.2% retrace
of the 105.44-123.33 rise and also tested the region near 115.68/116.00 as
support.
­ We will now monitor shorter-term price action with the intention of
structuring a long trade.
­ A break back under the key 113.56 level will considerably weaken the
evolving recovery, warning of further weakness ahead.
­ Thus trade in the current region is key to maintaining the recovery seen
since 105.44.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Ï Possibly looking to buy.

www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
9
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
EUR/GBP 10 May, 2011

Strong support expected in the current region.

­ All three objectives met, closing out our short position. Look to buy.
­ EUR/GBP has maintained it’s long-term bullish structure after basing at
0.8068, suggesting that the correction off 0.9812 is complete.
­ The pullback that we have been expecting has followed after the formation
of a rising wedge in the daily timeframe and a rising channel in the hourly
timeframe.
­ Weakness has today tested the region where we expected demand to
manifest. We thus switch back to the longer-term bias and look to buy, as
we view the current zone as one where a higher low is favoured to form.
­ Back under 0.8672 is required to dampen the current longer-term bullish
structure.

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Î Ï Buy limit 3 at 0.8740, Objs:0.8840/0.9043/0.9150, Stop: 0.8640.

www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

10
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
EUR/CHF 10 May, 2011

Under 1.2730 triggers a developing bear flag.

­ Second objective met. Stop moved to 1.2660. Final objective moved to

1.2350.
­ EUR/CHF appears to have completed a three legged recovery from the all-
time low made at 1.2402, with the 200 day moving average acting as
resistance, ahead of recent weakness.
­ Also, daily structure has seen the formation of a bear flag, with scope for a
return to 1.2433 now that a sustained break of 1.2730 has been achieved.
­ Also noted is that the break under 1.2730 constitutes a push under the
61.8% retrace of the 1.2433-1.3243 rise, further weakening the near-term
outlook.
­ A move back over the lower high at 1.2749 is now required to dampen
bears.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Ð Î Short 1 at 1.2730, Obj: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2660.

www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
11
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
GOLD 10 May, 2011

Sharp correction holds steady near 1474 (38.2% Fib).

­ Gold’s sharp correction has found support near 1474.69 (38.2% Fib). The
major reversal was triggered after puncturing above its multi-year bull-
channel ceiling, while also developing a DeMark exhaustion signal.

­ We continue to watch Gold’s COT net speculation positions which is

currently unwinding lower and should soon play catch up with the s/t
bearish price activity.

­ Bulls need to push back above 1518 and 1543.24 (04 May), in order to
offer a recapture of the all-time high at 1577.57. Only a close above there
Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP would confirm a resumption of the major uptrend into the next
psychological glass-ceiling at 1600.00.

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Ð Ï Sell Stop 3 at 1474, Obj, 1442/1411/1380, Stop: 1490.

www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
12
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
SILVER 10 May, 2011

Lower high sought for fresh losses.

­ Silver recovering after unwinding from extreme oversold conditions, after

its sharp reversal fell just over 30% in only 5 days.

­ The move, (which also followed a confluence of DeMark exhaustion signals

across daily/monthly charts), smashed through key support levels at
40.0000 (psychological) and 39.7660 (61.8% Fib).

­ This suggests further deterioriation of the parabolic upside move which

gained 90% this year. Keeping this in mind, we favour a further downside
extension into 31.7819 (24th Feb low) and 30.0000 (old psychological
level).

Spot Silver daily,Bloomberg Finance LP ­ We continue to watch silver relative performance against Gold, which is
currently unwinding from extreme oversold conditions.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Spot Silver hourly,Bloomberg Finance LP
Ð Ï Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

13
 LEGAL DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
TERMS 10 May, 2011

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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
 

www.migbank.com

14
 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
CONTACT 10 May, 2011

Howard Friend
www.migbank.com
Ron William Bjioy Kar MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or
Chief Market Strategist Technical Strategist Technical Strategist info@migbank.com CH-2008 Neuchâtel
h.friend@migbank.com r.william@migbank.com b.kar@migbank.com www.migbank.com Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15