Impacts of climate

change and sea-level

rise on small island
states
National and international
responses

John C. Pernetta

Few developing countries possess The Pacific Basin contains many small islands that are either indepen-
sufficient indigenous financial and per- dent states, or dependencies and territories of major powers including
sonnel resources to address adequate-
ly the predicted impacts of global cli- the USA, France, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. These varied
mate change. In recognition of this fact, political entities, hereafter referred to as ‘countries’, are listed in Table
the Oceans and Coastal Areas Prog- 1 and shown in Figure 1. Apart from Papua New Guinea, they are very
ramme Activity Centre of the United
Nations Environment Programme small. The combined land area of the other twenty-one countries is less
(UNEP) in 1987 established a series of than 100 000 km2.
regional teams to examine potential im- In contrast, the maritime areas under national control are large. Land
pacts of climate change and sea-level
rise on terrestrial and marine ecosys- constitutes less than 0.001% of the exclusive economic zones (EEZs)
tems, on coastal environments, and on that fall within national jurisdictions. For example, an isolated atoll, one
the socioeconomic structures of coun- square kilometre in size, might be surrounded by an EEZ of 325 000
tries throughout the world. Drawing
mainly on the work of the South Pacific km2. It is hardly surprising therefore that most countries of the region
Task Team, this article provides an depend on marine resource exploitation both for subsistence and
overview of interrelated environmental commercial use. Many tropical island countries rely on pelagic fish
problems and development problems in
the Indo-Pacific region and reviews resources such as tuna, for the majority of income that supports
efforts to develop response strategies. economic development. Control over these fisheries is difficult because
The case of the Maldives is highlighted. of fish migration among different EEZs and into waters outside EEZs,
where they are subject to commercial fishing by long-distance fleets.
The author may be contacted at ‘The
Smithy’, Blacksmith’s Row, Lynn Road, Whereas most small island countries are alike with respect to size and
Gayton, King’s Lynn, Norfolk PE32 IQJ, dependence on marine resources, they differ in terms of topography and
UK. relief. Pacific and Indian Ocean islands vary from low-lying atolls, at or
below 4 m above sea level, to high volcanic islands with steep profiles.
The potential effects of climate change are influenced by relief because
sea-level rise is a more serious threat to low-lying islands and because
there are contrasting rainfall and runoff patterns on high and low
islands.

0959-3780/92/010019-13 0 1992 Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd 19

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island States

Table 1. Pacific Island countries: vital statistics.

Number of Land EEZ Population Maximum

islands area (km’) area (km’) Population per km* altitude (m)
American Samoa 7 197 390 000 33 200 169 931
Cook Islands 8 241 1 830 000 18 200 76 652
Federated States
of Micronesia 17 727 2 978 000 79 500 109 791
Fiji 22 18272 1 290 000 671 712 37 1 323
French Polynesia 38 3 265 5 030 000 166 700 51 2 237
Guam 1 549 218 000 107 000 195 393
Kiribati 14 690 3 550 000 59 900 87 81
Line Islands 5 10 130 000 40 4 8
Marshall Islands 10 171 2 131 000 31 800 186 4
Nauru 1 21 320 000 8 100 386 71
New Caledonia 11 19 103 1 740 000 139 400 7 1 628
Niue 1 259 390 000 3 600 14 67
Northern Marianas 14 475 1 823 000 17600 37 965
Palau (Belau) 16 512 629 000 14 800 29 207
Papua New Guinea 22 466 973 3 123 000 3010727 6 4 694
Solomon Islands 19 27 556 1 340 000 235 000 9 2 446
Tokelau 3 IO 290 000 1 600 160 4
Tonga 29 699 700 000 97 400 139 1 125
Tuvalu 2 26 900 000 7 600 292 4
Vanuatu 9 11 880 680 000 117500 10 1 979
Wallis & Futuna 3 255 300 000 12408 49 762
Western Samoa 8 2 935 120 000 156 400 53 1 857

Source: various, South Pacific Commission Statistical Office.

Human populations
About 5 million people live in the island countries of the Pacific, but
two-thirds of these are in Papua New Guinea. Densities are high,
reaching 386 per km2 in the Pacific. For example, the population density
of Eauripik Island (Federated States of Micronesia) is 9.50/km2 (1980),

r-----. l_
‘Z
, -: Northern N . Hawaii 0
/
/ i Mariana . .
+.
/ Saipan ; Islands
/ Marsha; ..\
/
/ Guam Islands
- 4. . ; \ \
l

I I
Yap L : . c_ \
Belau :’ : : ,‘. w-a
.’ _.__i. :- : ; .. ., \
Federated States of Micronzsia ‘,’L - \ ..-._ _
I .
, \
‘_ 3’ \ I. I
; T- . \ I - I Equator
Nauru * *-., Kiribati \

. .. :\\N-- - y;,,
Tuval; .‘.
Wa,lisE Western.
Futuna :amoa ‘French Polynesia ’
-. American c._ \
- ‘. ..c=;: \
Samoa
Cook’.‘, ...... \
Fiji by:;

Niue .!slands
: I
New ;;l;$a\. y . ‘- T:ga:L _ .. ‘...- ; _),, 1 _ _
---------------_____
. . Pitcaikn
Australia /- -
. . /
.
._-,-J

New Zealand

Figure 1. Island countries of the South Pacific region.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

and of Majuro (Marshall Islands) 2188/km*. In the Indian Ocean, the

population density of the Maldives is 713/km*. Fifty-six thousand people
live in the island capital of Male’, which is 1700 m long and 700 m wide.
Developments in health care and social services have greatly reduced
mortality and fuelled explosive population growth. For example, the
Maldives population had stabilized at around 60 000-70 000 in the early
1900s. After the eradication of malaria and advances in the treatment of
childhood dysentry and diarrhoea, the population rose to 214 000 by
1990. In most island communities similar developments have put heavy
strain on social services and education systems, and have helped to
produce a draniatic shortage of skilled personnel in all fields and at all
levels. ’
Typically, island country populations are growing at 3% plus per year
and the rate of emigration is high. For example, Auckland is now the
world’s largest Polynesian city and more Tokelauans live in New
Zealand than in their home islands. Internal migration rates are also
high as people leave remote locations and congregate around service
centres such as Tarawa (Kiribati), Majuro, and Male’.* Male’ has an
annual population growth rate of 7% due to births and migration.3
Out-migration provides important revenue in the form of remittances
and the living standard of many islands is maintained by the export of
labour. Thus high birth rates are responses both to the need for
remittances and the more traditional need for children to support aged
parents.5
‘J.C. Pernetta, ‘The role of professional
scientists and scientific organization in de-
velopment’, in R.J. Morton, ed, Waigani Social and economic aspects
Seminar Background Papers, Vol 2, Uni-
versity of Papua New Guinea, Port Mores- Island states account for a disproportionate amount of the world’s
by, 1984, pp 15&l 84. linguistic and cultural diversity. Over a third of all known languages are
‘J. Connell and P. Roy, ‘The greenhouse
effect, impact of sea-level rise on low coral spoken in four countries of Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, The
islands in the South Pacific’, in J.C. Per- Solomons, Vanuatu, New Caledonia). Island groups are also home to
netta and P.J. Hughes, eds. /mobcations of distinctive human cultures characterized by unique mores, dances,
Expected Climate Changes ii the South
Pacific Region: An overview, UNEP Re- traditional knowledge and technologies. Many of these cultures reflect
gional Seas Reports and Studies No 128, ecological and environmental characteristics of island homes that cannot
United Nations Environment Programme, be duplicated elsewhere.
Nairobi, 1990, pp 88-l 15.
3J.C. Pernetta and G. Sestini, The Ma/- Migration tends to weaken those elements of culture that cannot be
dives and the Impacts of Expected Climate reinforced and the difficulties of preserving cultural diversity are
Changes, UNEP Regional Seas Reports thereby increased. O’Collins points out that emigration places severe
and Studies No 104, United Nations En-
vironment Programme, Nairobi, 1989, p strains on migrants, host communities, and on those who remain
84. behind.(j However, most island societies view emigration as a temporary
40p cif, Ref 2. solution to transient problems. It is difficult to predict what will be the
5B. Schultz and R. Tenten, ‘Adjustment:
Problems of growth and change, 1892- long-term attitude of island populations to migration that is undertaken
1944’, in A. Talu et al, eds, Kiribati: in response to degrading environments and climate change.
Aspects of History, Institute of Pacific Stu- Most of the small island countries are widely regarded as not being
dies, University of the South Pacific, Suva,
1979, pp 106-127; A. Chambers, Repro- economically viable without external assistance. Their survival is closely
duction in Nanumea (Tuvalu): An tied to remittances provided by non-residents, aid, and development
Ethnography of Fertility and Birth, Working funds from the international donor community. Economic dependence
Paper No 72, Department of Anthropology,
University of Auckland, New Zealand, is reinforced by inherited Western-oriented economic links that have
1986. continued into the post-independence era.
6M. O’Collins, ‘Carteret islanders at the
atolls resettlement scheme: A response to
land loss and population growth’, in Per-
netta and Hughes, op tit, Ref 2, pp 245- Environmental problems of small island states
269; M. O’Collins, ‘Social and cultural im-
pact: A changing Pacific?‘, in Pernetta and Many island countries exhibit extreme environmental degradation as a
Hughes, op tit, Ref 2, pp 116-126. consequence of past development strategies, population growth, inter-

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island stutes

island migration, and the breakdown of traditional social and cultural

values. Pollution and waste disposal are among the most visible
afflictions. For example, inadequate sewage disposal is widespread and
often leads to contamination of drinking water supplies, eutrophication
of lagoons, and human health problems. Because land for dumping is
often unavailable, solid waste disposal is difficult on small islands. Items
that vary in size from plastic packaging to cars and ships are often
disposed of in the adjacent marine environment. The use and disposal of
pesticides and other toxic chemicals present particularly serious
problems.7
On the small islands, virtually all land-based pollutants are imported
because few of them possess any industries. Some fish processing and
copra drying may occur, but the processing of primary products
generally takes place elsewhere. Mining, ore processing, large-scale
agriculture and major processing of products like sugar and palm oil
tend to be confined to large islands like New Guinea.
Despite the visibility of land and water pollution, physical modifica-
tion of atolls as a consequence of engineering projects is perhaps more
significant, especially in the context of future climate changes. Har-
bours, wharves, jetties, piers, groynes and other shore stabilization
structures alter local currents and sediment transport regimes, and
initiate or exacerbate coastal erosion. In places like Tarawa lagoon
(Kiribati), major biological changes have followed the joining together
of isolated sandy islets (m&u) to create single long islands. Gaps
between motu provide channels that facilitate the exchange of lagoon
and ocean water.
Increasing populations have exerted increased demands for construc-
tion materials and this has led to the mining of lagoon sediments for
sand or, in some cases, excavation of coral substrate on which an entire
country rests. Such activities cause direct damage to marine ecosystems
and increase turbidity in ways that affect coral communities well beyond
the immediate area of operations.
Many of the existing environmental problems of small island states
will be accentuated both by climate change and by sea-level rise, as well
as unrestricted growth of human populations. Failure to manage these
problems will leave island countries highly vulnerable to predicted
future changes. Efforts to assist such states to cope with climate change
and sea-level rise must include the management of existing social and
environmental problems.

Climate change and small Indo-Pacific island states

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
and other bodies, the twenty-first century is likely to witness marked
climate changes. In island states, modified regional atmospheric circula-
tion patterns can be expected to change local climates dramatically.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to be sure what will happen because there is
a general absence of regional and subregional climate models and of
models that are capable of predicting rainfall patterns.
From what is known, it is believed that the frequency of tropical
cyclones may increase in areas that are not normally affected by them.
‘D.L. Mowbray, Pesticide Use and Abuse fhis include-s places like Milne Bay Province of Papua New Guinea,
in the Pacific Region, Regional Seas Fie- Vanuatu, and the Solomons. Changes in rainfall and temperature are
ports and Studies No 89, United Nations
Environment Programme, Nairobi, 1987. also likely to impact terrestrial biological communities and human

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

populations via modifications of evapotranspiration, humidity, runoff

and groundwater. Direct impacts on vegetation involve possible in-
creased uptake of carbon dioxide, increased temperatures and changes
in moisture balance. Temperature and moisture changes are expected to
have the greatest effects on natural and anthropogenic vegetation.
Higher temperatures may increase drought stress on plants in areas that
now have limited water supplies but impacts may be quite variable
because of local modifications of dominant wind and rainfall patterns.
Significant changes in altitudinal vegetation zones are likely to occur.
On Pacific islands, zone boundaries may eventually rise by around 333
m but the time required for this transition is unknown. As a result alpine
grasslands may be reduced by 50% in Papua New Guinea, remaining
only in ten isolated areas. Alpine habitats are not found on other islands
but corresponding reductions in high-altitude vegetation formations are
likely. Mid-montane rain forest between 1400 and 2300 m will probably
come under heavier pressure from human use, as agricultural productiv-
ity increases therein. As the length of growing seasons increases at
higher altitudes, there may be a reduction in number of days of frost, an
increase in yields, and shorter times to harvest.’ The balance between
plantation and smallholder production of cash crops might be affected,
with consequence impacts on national economies. For example, coffee
is grown by small-scale producers and large-scale producers in the
highlands of New Guinea. An upward altitudinal shift of coffee produc-
tion would favour increased smallholder production on steeper slopes
that cannot readily be used for plantations. Altitudinal changes of land
use have profound implications for demography in the highlands of New
Guinea but will have less impact in other Pacific island states where
higher elevations are restricted in extent.
Significant latitudinal changes in continental vegetation zones are
expected to be a major consequence of global climate change but -
given the fragmented and localized character of island environments - it
is difficult to assess the impacts of such changes in the Pacific region.
Under the warmer and drier conditions that will occur in some areas
there may be increased capillarity in limestone soils. Soil fertility may be
reduced as a result. Elsewhere, under conditions of increased rainfall,
erosion may accelerate, especially where land-use practices are not
designed to reduce soil loss. All of the preceding effects may have major
tertiary implications for species loss, adaptation and conservation.
If rainfall decreases, forestry in rainshadow areas may be adversely
affected, as will commercial and subsistence crops that require irriga-
tion. Agricultural crops that are already stressed by the direct effects of
climate change may become more susceptible to diseases, particularly
pathogenically caused ones such as bacterial wilt. Generation times of
pests may change such that more than one generation may affect a single
crop.
Human health is another potential casualty of climate change.
Warmer and drier conditions will produce airborne dust that exacer-
bates respiratory inflammation and infections. As a result, patterns of
tuberculosis and other respiratory diseases are likely to shift. Changes in
the distribution of vector-borne diseases like malaria may be even more
‘P.J. Hughes and M. Sullivan, ‘Climatic dramatic. Altitudinal shifts in mosquito populations may be followed by
change and agricultural production in the
an upsurge of chronic malaria in the highlands of New Guinea.
highlands of Papua New Guinea’, in Per-
netta and Hughes, op tit, Ref 2, pp 270- Fortunately, among Pacific islands malaria is confined to Melanesia and
279. there are no major centres of population outside the altitudinal limit of

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

the vector in the Solomons and Vanuata. Other regionally important

vector-borne diseases include filiariasis and dengue fever. Increased
rainfall and longer wet seasons are likely to lead to more outbreaks and
cases of both diseases.
A general and widespread deterioration of human comfort is likely to
follow projected climate changes in the Indo-Pacific region. This will be
particularly so in areas of existing high humidity.” There is little that can
be done about increased humidity out of doors but air-conditioners and
fans may ease the burden indoors leading to increased power consump-
tion and economic costs. Changes in architectural design and building
materials may follow. Workers in the primary sector (outdoors) may
experience reduced productivity, while workers in service, industrial
and commercial sectors will require the installation of cooling devices.
Some areas that are already close to the comfort limit for human
habitation will exceed it under the anticipated climatic regimes.“’

Impacts of sea-level rise

Permanent inundation is likely to occur in parts of high islands where
the coastal profile is flat and gently sloping. The extent and nature of
land loss has been estimated for a number of such islands.” Inundation
will be extremely important economically because most fertile agricul-
tural areas are at, or close to, sea level. In addition, many roads and
most urban centres lie close to the sea. Loss of coastal agricultural land
will push agriculture inland, frequently onto steeper slopes that carry
the possibility of increased erosion and reduced fertility.
Permanent submergence of low-lying wetlands would reduce their
extent and reduce the diversity and abundance of freshwater species.
Inundation will cause serious difficulties in Melanesia where the largest
estuarine and deltaic systems are backed by relatively flat coastal plains.
In such areas coastal recession may be extensive thereby placing
increased pressure on endangered species like crocodiles and turtles.
Some small island states may lose parts of their EEZs as outlying islands
are submerged by rising water.
Increased cyclone activity is likely to increase the frequency and
geographic spread of episodic flooding in the coastal zone. Storm-water
drainage and sewerage systems in urban areas would be affected while
areas of swamp-backed beach ridges that are now subject to intermittent
‘G. McGregor, ‘Possible consequences of flooding may be rendered permanently uninhabitable by prolonged
climatic warming in Papua New Guinea inundation. ‘*
with implications for the tropical South
The impact of global changes in carbon dioxide availability on the
West Pacific area’, in Pernetta and
Hughes, op tit, Ref 2, pp 25-40. growth of symbiotic algae and, hence, the hermatypic, reef-building
“/bid. corals, is not yet known. A rise in temperature is likely to decrease the
“Pernetta and Hughes, op tit, Ref 2.
solubility of carbon dioxide but increase the solubility of calcium
‘*P J Huahes and L. Bualia. ‘Murik Lakes
and the mouth of the Sepik’ River, Papua carbonate. Many species of hermatypic corals are now growing at the
New Guinea’, in Pernetta and Hughes, op upper limit of thermal tolerance. Any increase in lagoon water tempera-
tit, Ref 2, pp 243-246.
tures could increase coral bleaching with resulting changes to the
13J C Pernetta and D.L. Elder, Climate,
Se8 Level Rise and the Coastal Zone: structure and growth of the entire coral community.‘3 Of course, it is
Management and Planning for Global possible that upward growth of corals will keep pace with rising sea
Changes, International Union for the Con-
servation of Nature and Natural Re-
levels and that existing barrier reefs will continue to provide the same
sources, Gland, 1990 (also Oceans and protection to coastlines. But if this does not occur, increased wave
Shoreline Management (in press); M. Sulli- action will probably result in increased erosion of currently protected
van and J.C. Pernetta. ‘The effect of sea
level rise on atolls and motu’, in Pernetta
shorelines.
and Hughes, op tit, Ref 2, pp 1-15. Existing models of sand genesis and movement in atoll systems do not

24 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

adequately explain the processes of motu formation and erosion. Since

the bulk of atoll sand is derived from biological sources, changes to
growth rates of corals or sand-producing algae may alter sand budgets
and influence the rate of motu formation and destruction. Coral atolls
may be expected to shrink or disappear entirely as sand is lost to
offshore sinks. In any event, the plan and alignment of beaches will alter
as a result of changes in wave patterns generated by winds. Such
changes have potentially important consequences for coastal marine
communities of sea grasses, coral flats, and algal beds as well as sand
budgets.
In estuarine areas, the inland extension of tidal action will increase
saltwater contamination of groundwater. A rise in sea level will cause
water tables to rise with consequent reductions in the volume of water
that is available for human consumption and agricultural use.14 Such
changes are likely to render small atolls uninhabitable long before
erosion removes them.
Vegetation changes may be most dramatic on flat coastal plains.15
The distribution and zonation of mangroves and other species will be
affected, perhaps involving a reduction of transitional habitats on their
seaward edges and consequent reduction of nursery areas for important
offshore resources such as prawns.16
It is clear that small islands will suffer some or all of the above-
mentioned effects of climate change and sea-level rise, but local
conditions will play important roles in determining outcomes. Case
studies of specific islands or island countries are needed to provide a
more detailed picture of potential impacts. The following analysis of
present and future problems in the Maldives and their capital Male’
provides useful illustrations.

The Maldives: a case study

The Republic of the Maldives consists of 19 major atolls in a double
chain that stretches from 7”N to 1/2”S. The total land area is about 300
km2. This includes approximately 1190 islands, of which 202 are
inhabited. The surrounding EEZ is 107 500 km2. Atolls vary in shape
from oval to pear-shaped and they surround lagoons 40-60 m deep.
Individual islands frequently migrate in response to storms and are often
formed or destroyed by them. No island stands more than 3 m above
mean sea level and most are less than 1 m high. The largest island is
about 10 km2 but most inhabited islands are between 1 and 2 km2.
‘%W. Buddemeier and J.A. Oberdorfer, The Maldives experience a tropical monsoon climate and rainfall
‘Climate change and island groundwater averages 1950 mm per year with 2540% interannual variations. Soils
resources’, in Pernetta and Hughes, op tit, are thin, deficient in nitrogen, manganese and aluminium, but rich in
Ref 2, pp 56-67.
15J.C. Pernetta and P.L. Osborne, ‘Deltaic phosphorous, calcium and magnesium. Groundwater resources are
floodplains: The Fly river and the man- incompletely surveyed and saltwater intrusions often occur during dry
groves of the Gulf of Papua, Papua New seasons. Contamination by fecal pathogens is common - a product of
Guinea’, in Pernetta and Hughes, op tit,
Ref 2, pp 200-217. poor waste disposal practices.
‘“J.C. Ellison, ‘Possible effects of sea level Little is known about wave or tidal regimes except around the capital
rise on mangrove ecosystems’, Paper island of Male’. There the tidal range averages 1 m. Swells generated by
MDVISLR18, presented to the Small States
Conference on Sea Level Rise, Male’, distant storms, sometimes as far away as the southern Indian Ocean,
Maldives, 14-18 November 1989. often cause serious flooding. ” Tide gauges have been installed and
‘?‘. Goda, Causes of High Waves at Male’ wave recordings have recently begun at Male’ and two other locations
in April 7987, unpublished report, Depart-
ment of Public Works and Labour, Male’, but there is no in-country capacity to store and analyse the data from
1988. them.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992 25

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

Like most atoll countries, the Maldives terrestrial environment is

biologically impoverished. Only 583 plant species have been recorded.
Wood for construction and fuel is in short supply and most of the 46 766
cultivable acres are used for subsistence production of taro, cereals and
vegetables. However, imported rice is the dominant dietary staple.
Offshore, reef systems support a complex and diverse community of
corals which literally provide the fundamental underpinning of the
republic. Corals are mined for building and construction materials and
the bioclastic sands of lagoons are pumped ashore for land
reclamation. ‘* Fish and marine products account for about half of the
country’s exports - ie 71 million rufiya out of 151 million rufiya.”
The economy is based largely on two ‘export’ activities: fishing and
tourism. Although the economic base has grown by 8.9% annually since
1978, it is limited. Fisheries is the leading economic activity, followed in
order by tourism, power generation and infrastructure projects.
Current marine environmental problems include coral deaths due to
bleaching, apparently associated with thermal stress. In 1987, at least
twelve species of reef-building corals suffered some mortality down to
depths of 30 m. These deaths coincided with periods when lagoon
temperatures were 2-3°C above normal and Indian Ocean surface
waters were 1.5”C higher than normal. In view of the predicted rise in
global temperatures associated with greenhouse warming, such exten-
sive mortalities are cause for concern. In addition to bleaching, localized
problems of environmental pollution from sewage and solid wastes are
causing problems in reef, lagoon and other coastal waters.
Marine conservation issues have been addressed in a number of
reports, most of which remain unimplemented because they exceed the
capabilities of available institutions and personnel, or conflict with
social and cultural values. For example, although literacy is high,
secondary and post-secondary education is limited. In 1986 only 53
people received matriculation-level education; by 1990 the total number
of Maldivians with first degrees was 216, but few have Masters degrees
and none have received doctoral degrees. As a consequence, the
availability of trained personnel is low and is not keeping pace with the
burgeoning population.

Local impacts: the case of Male’

“B.E. Brown and R.P. Dunne, Report on a
Preliminary Investigation into the Environ-
mental Impact of Coral Mining on the
Reefs of the Maldives: An Assessment and
Recommendations, unpublished report,
Department of Marine and Fisheries Re-
search, Male’, Maldives, 1988.
19$US1 = 8.25 rufiya.
Male’ houses 56 000 people and contains a very high proportion of the
Maldives’ service sector. Most government employees live there. Most
tourist resorts are located in North Male’ atoll, with some in South
Male’, and others planned for development in nearby atolls. The
country’s major port lies adjacent to the city and its sole international
airport is situated on neighbouring Hulule island.
At its highest point Male’ is just over 2 m above sea level, but more
than 85% of the original land area was less than 1 m above sea level.
Much of the city stands on reclaimed land that was created by pumping
sand from a lagoon onto a seaward facing reef flat (Figures 2 and 3). Its
entire perimeter is flanked by seawalls. The lagoon contains the fishing
boat (dhoni) harbour and the port. A substantial breakwater flanks the
ocean side of the island. Constructed as a Japanese aid project at a cost
of US$SOOO per metre, the breakwater is composed of 3-tonne tetrapod
units which were poured on-site using imported cement, sand and
aggregate.

26 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

Lagoon

/Iv r) Palace

MaI& Island

Figure 2. Sketch map of the island of Male’ based on admiralty charts of the 1890% showing the original extent of the
island and surrounding coral reef flat.

It is instructive to examine the problems that resulted in the break-

water’s construction. Originally, the island included a wide strip of
fringing reef on its oceanic side. Overcrowding and the need for deeper
water promoted dredging and reclamation using sand pumped from the
lagoon. Much of the reef was covered by piled coral rubble and the
island extended to twice its original size. In 1987 a distant storm
generated swells that removed 30% of the sand fill and further damage
occurred in 1988, leading to construction of the breakwater. Damage
elsewhere in the country was confined to islands that had undergone
reclamation.
In Male’ the supply of groundwater is in jeopardy. Estimates suggest
that it will be totally depleted by the mid 1990s. Originally the
freshwater lens was more than 20 m deep and sufficient to supply the
entire community. By 1982 it was found to be only 13 m deep; between
October 1983 and February 1986 gross freshwater storage declined from
6.14 million to 4.84 million m3. By 1989 the average depth of freshwater
in the centre of the island was estimated at just over 3 m. Average daily
withdrawals are estimated at 2055 rns per day. The obvious decline is
due to several factors. These include increased population, reduction in
recharge area due to increased housing density, and compaction of road
surfaces which leads to reduced permeability and increased runoff.
Problems of fecal contamination of the aquifer resulted in construction
of a flush sewage system that increased aquifer withdrawal by pushing
up freshwater consumption. Several donor governments have offered
desalination plants as partial solutions to the water supply problems of

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992 27

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

Flooded areas

Figure 3. Modern Male’, capital city of the Maldives. The city now extends over the entire reef and the shaded area
indicates the extent of flooding in 1987.

Male’. Unfortunately, such offers are of dubious merit because the cost
of supplying the whole population with desalinated water exceeds the
current annual export earnings of the country from all sources (US$48
million in 1989). Two desalination plants are already operating and a
third is planned.
These examples do not exhaust the list of environmental problems.
For example, municipal wastes are smothering corals in neighbouring
reefs and inadequate municipal incineration causes severe air pollution
during the southwest monsoon season. Municipal wastes that were
employed as landfill have contaminated wells and many give off the
distinctive smell of hydrogen sulphide.
As several of these examples show, attempts to solve one environ-
mental problem have merely resulted in the proliferation of others.
Much of the blame must be attributed to the sectoral approach to
problem solving that has been used by the Maldives’ government and by
the donors of international aid. A chain of undesirable consequences
follows. The chain eventually breaks when the export sector of the
economy fails to generate sufficient income to meet the recurrent costs
of the ‘solutions’.
Clearly, the Maldives faces a variety of economic and development
problems that are compounded by a restricted natural resource base and
rapid population growth. The prospect of increasing sea level and
accompanying increased storm damage - both driven by global climate

28 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

Table 2. Problems in the Maldives associated with global climate change.

(1) Increased rates of coastal erosion and alteration of beaches with increased impacts from high
waves.
(2) Changes in aquifer volume associated with increased saline intrusion.
(3) Increased energy consumption (eg air-conditioning).
(4 Coral deaths as a result of increased seawater temperatures.
Source: J.C. Pernetta and G. Sestini, The Ma/- (5) Accelerated inter-island migration due to declining stability and habitability of islands
dives and the Impacts of Expected Climate (61 Loss of caoital infrastructure on smaller tourist resort islands.
Changes, UNEP Regional Seas Reports and (jj Changes in reef growth and current patterns.
Studies No 104, United Nations Environment (9) Increased vulnerability of human settlements due to aggregation and increasing size.
Programme, Nairobi, 1989.

change - poses major threats. A UNEP mission to the Maldives in late

1988 identified eight major problems (Table 2).*’

The Maldives’ response

Some concerns about environmental degradation were voiced in the
Maldives during the 1970s but little attention was paid to them until the
flooding of 1987. At that time, President Abdul Maumoon Gayoom
requested the United Nations to assist in determining whether that
unusual event was connected with the Greenhouse Effect. A United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) mission was subsequently
dispatched. It recommended the training of local personnel to monitor
and evaluate impacts of expected environmental changes and the
development of strategies that would permit sustainable development.
The objective was to establish an integrated programme that included
both training of personnel and provision of an environmental database.
It was planned to place a resident scientific advisor in the Maldives who
would be responsible to a National Environment Commission.
Despite intensive efforts by the government of the Maldives to secure
two million dollars to initiate this programme, it has not yet been
implemented. This cost is roughly equal to 10% of the country’s annual
export income. Individual activities included in the programme have
been funded by donors who signed bilateral agreements with the
Maldives. However, bilateral agreements fragment and destroy the
holistic approach that is needed for a successful outcome to the
country’s problems. Bilateralism also tends to favour some alternatives
at the expense of others. In the long term bilateral approaches increase
dependence rather than foster independence.
One important by-product of the Maldives’ experience is the begin-
ning of a general awareness about global change problems among small
island states. The Maldives has played a leading role in encouraging
small islands to band together to devise a unified stance to global change
problems and to seek solutions in common. In late 1989, in concert with
the Commonwealth Secretariat, the Maldives hosted a Ministerial Level
Meeting on sea-level rise that was attended by representatives of 14
small states and observers from several larger countries. The outcome
was the Male’ Declaration on global warming and sea-level rise. This
calls on the international community to assist small states to tackle
environmental problems. It also encourages states to take active mea-
sures to address global change problems and urges industrialized
countries to develop mechanisms for funding, training and technology
transfer.
The international community’s response to these entreaties has been
muted and sometimes has taken the form of downgrading the concerns
2oOp tit, Ref 3. of the small island states. For example, it has been argued that because

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992 29

Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

Table 3. Vulnerability of Pacific Island countries to climate change impacts.

Category A Profound impacts - these countries may cease to exist in the event of worst-case
scenarios:
Tokelau
Marshall Islands
Tuvalu
Line Islands
Kiribati

Category B Severe impacts - economic and social disruption accompanied by inter-island

movement of population and out-migration:
Federated States of Micronesia
Palau (Belau)
Nauru
French Polynesia
Cook Islands
Niue
Tonga

Category C Moderate to severe impacts, locally devastating - major changes to crop production
systems, demographic patterns and social infrastructure:
American Samoa
Fiji
New Caledonia
Northern Marianas
Solomon Islands

Source: J.C. Pernetta, ‘Projected climate change Category D Locally severe to catastrophic impacts - need for forward planning on local and sub-
and sea-level rise: a relative impact rating for the regional levels:
countries of the Pacific Basin’, in J.C. Pernetta Vanuatu
and P.J. Hughes, eds, lmplicafionsof Expected Wallis and Futuna
Climate Changes in the South Pacific: An Over- Papua New Guinea
view, UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies Guam
No 128, United Nations Environment Program- Western Samoa
Nairobi, 1989, pp 14-24.

atolls survived high rates of sea-level rise during the Pleistocene period,
they will survive changes predicted for the next century. However, coral
reef specialists are aware that not all reefs ‘kept up’ during that period;
some ‘gave up’ and became sunken patch reefs, while others were
initially submerged but eventually ‘caught up’.
If and when international action is taken to assist the small island
states, it will be necessary to address the issue of priorities for action.
Table 3 represents a first step in that direction. It provides a priority
ranking of Pacific Island countries based on relative vulnerability to the
physical impacts of rising sea level. Broader social impacts and other
effects of climate change are not included.

Conclusion
The changes in assistance and cooperative programmes that will be
necessary to enable developing country governments to cope with global
climate change and sea-level rise may be almost as great and as
far-reaching as the predicted impacts of climate change itself. Many of
these countries are already ill equipped to handle existing environmen-
tal problems which will worsen as climate changes. It is therefore
incumbent on industrial countries - which are largely responsible for the
problem - to provide financial and technical assistance to the small
island states. Moreover, it is imperative that these programmes should
be individually tailored to meet island needs.
Given that the small island countries have little responsibility for
causing the greenhouse effect, they should press for adoption of policies
that are designed to limit greenhouse-gas emissions and should lobby
the developed industrial states to accept their own culpability. They
might also promote the international adoption of environmental

30 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992

 Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on small island states

accounting which includes the concept of ‘natural debt’.‘l Since more

natural carbon dioxide is fixed by the tropical rain forests, oceans, coral
reefs and mangroves of small island states than is emitted in the form of
“J C Pernetta, ed, ‘Record of discussions
held during the UNEP Symposium “Re- locally produced greenhouse gases, these states are effectively subsidiz-
gional cooperation on environmental pro- ing the economies of industrial countries which are net produders or
tection of the marine and coastal areas of exporters of carbon dioxide.
the Pacific Basin” including resoluGons
passed and forwarded to OPA/PAC’. in Failure to solve existing environmental problems of small island states
Regional Cooperation on Environmental hodcs ill for the future. It suggests that global climate change - and the
Protection of the Marine and Coastal attendant problem of sea-level rise - will place the goal of sustainable
Areas of the Pacrfic Basm. UNEP Regional
Seas Reports and Studies No 134. UNEP. dcvclopmcn1 beyond the reach of small island states and may indeed
Nairobi, 1991, pp 193-196. thrc;itcn tlicir sllrvivid.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE March 1992 31