PERT (Project evaluation and review technique): out the activity, the time cannot be specified correctly.

he time cannot be specified correctly. Say, for example, if you ask

a contractor how much time it takes to construct the house, he may answer you that

The academic differences between PERT network and CPM network are:
(i) PERT is event oriented and CPM is activity oriented. This is to say that while
discussing about PERT network, we say that Activity 1-2, Activity 2-3 and so on.
Or event 2 occurs after event 1 and event 5 occurs after event 3 and so on. While
discussing CPM network, we say that Activity A follows activity B and activity C
follows activity B and so on. Referring to the network shown in figure 9, we can
discuss as under. PERT way: Event 1 is the predecessor to event 2 or event 2 is the
successor to event 1. Events 3 and 4 are successors to event 2 or event 2 is the
predecessor to events 3 and 4.
it may take 5 to 6 months. This is because of his expectation of uncertainty in
carrying out each one of the activities in the construction of the house. Another
example is if somebody asks you how much time you require to reach railway
station from your house, you may say that it may take 1 to 1½ hours. This is
because you may think that you may not get a transport facility in time. Or on the
way to station, you may come across certain work, which may cause delay in your
journey from house to station. Hence PERT network is used when the activity
times are probabilistic.

CPM way: Activity 1-2 is the predecessor to Activities 2-3 and 2-4 or Activities 2-
3 and 2-4 are the successors to activity 1-2.

There are three time estimates in PERT, they are:

(a) OPTIMISTIC TIME: Optimistic time is represented by to. Here the estimator
(ii) PERT activities are probabilistic in nature. The time required to complete the thinks that everything goes on well and he will not come across any sort of
PERT activity cannot be specified correctly. Because of uncertainties in carrying

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uncertainties and estimates lowest time as far as possible. He is optimistic in his
thinking. 3. Variance:

2
 Pessimistic Time  Optimistic Time 
(b) PESSIMISTIC TIME: This is represented by tP. Here estimator thinks that
Variance     2

everything goes wrong and expects all sorts of uncertainties and estimates highest  6
possible time. He is pessimistic in his thinking.

(c) LIKELY TIME: This is represented by tL. This time is in between optimistic Difference
CPM PERT
and pessimistic times. Here the estimator expects he may come across some sort of For each and single activity a single duration is Each activity will have three time estimates
uncertainties and many a time the things will go right. So while estimating the time given a. Optimistic time
b. Most likely time
for a PERT activity, the estimator will give the three time estimates. When these c. Pessimistic time

three estimates are plotted on a graph, the probability distribution that we get is
closely associated with Beta Distribution curve. For a Beta distribution curve as
shown in figure 6.10, the characteristics are:
Question # 01
Consider the following table summarizing the Details of a project
1. Expected Time or Average Time (MEAN):

OptimisticTime  4* Most likely time  Pessimistic Time

Mean / exp ected duration  te  Atcitty Predecessor Duration (in weeks)
6 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
time time time
A - 5 6 7
B - 1 3 5
2. Standard Deviation: C - 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
 Pessimistic Time  Optimistic Time  E B 1 2 9
Standard Deviation      F C 1 5 9
 6 G C 2 2 8
H E, F 4 4 10
I D 2 5 8
Where tp –to = known as range
J H, G 2 2 8

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Required: Atcitty Duration (weeks)
1. Construct the project network
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Mean Variance
time time time Duration σ2
2. Find the expected duration of project and variance of each activity
3. Find the critical path and expected project completion time A 5 6 7 6
4. What is the probability of completing the project on or before 22 weeks? B 1 3 5 3
C 1 4 7 4
Solution: D 1 2 3 2
E 1 2 9 3
F 1 5 9 5
G 2 2 8 3
H 4 4 10 5
I 2 5 8 5
J 2 2 8 3

“Variance means Square of standard deviation”

2
 Pessimistic Time  Optimistic Time 
Variance     2

 6

Atcitty Duration (weeks)

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Mean Variance
time time time Duration
A 5 6 7 6 0.11
B 1 3 5 3 0.44
C 1 4 7 4 1.00
D 1 2 3 2 0.11
E 1 2 9 3 1.77
OptimisticTime  4* Most likely time  Pessimistic Time F 1 5 9 5 1.77
Mean / exp ected duration  te 
6 G 2 2 8 3 1.00
H 4 4 10 5 1.00
I 2 5 8 5 1.00
J 2 2 8 3 1.00

5 6
Critical Path

Critical time means longest path which is going to take the maximum time. We can find from the
project network diagram.

Mean duration time will be using here directly as calculated above.

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 There are total foul path to reach the node 8.

I 6+2+5 = 13 WEEKS

II 3+ 3+5+3 = 14 WEEKS

III 4+ 5+5+3 = 17 WEEKS

IV 4+3+3=10 WEEKS

3rd is the longest path therefore the critical path is the 3rd one.

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For Part 4

To estimate the probability we need the critical path Question # 02:

Activity Mean duration Variance A project consists of 9 activities and the three time estimates are given below. Find the project
µ
completion time (TE). Write the network for the given project and find the project completion
time?
C 4 1.00
F 5 1.77
H 5 1.00
J 3 1.00

P (x ≤ 22) = P[(x-µ)/σ] 17 σ2 = 4.77

µ = Average = 17

Standard deviation = σ = 2.1840 (square root of variance)

x
P( x  22)  P 
  

 22  17  5 50
P( x  22)  P   
 2.19  2.19

Z  2.28
We will check this Z value against the table of 2.2 and 0.08

Solution:
Then we will obtained the 0.9897 probability value

Means 98.97% chances for project completion on time.

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 Critical activities Mean duration Variance
I J σ2

10 20 4.00
20 30 0.44
30 70 2.25
70 80 1.00

P (x ≤ 58 days) = P[(x-µ)/σ] σ2 =

Network diagram

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Question # 03 (Practice Problem):
Steps involved in executing an order for a large engine generator set are given below in a
jumbled manner. Arrange them in a logical sequence, draw a PERT network and find the
expected execution time period.

Time in weeks
Activities (not in logical order)
to tL tp
Order and receive engine 1 2 3
Prepare assembly drawings 1 1 1
Receive and study order 1 2 3
Apply and receive import license for generator 3 5 7
Order and receive generator 2 3 5
Study enquiry for engine generator set 1 2 3
Fabricate switch board 2 3 5
Inspect engine 1 1 1
Complete assemble engine generator 1 2 3
Submit quotation with drawing and full 1 2 3
Prepare base and completing 2 3 4
Order and receive meters, switch gears for switch 2 3 4
board
Test assembly 1 1 1

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