Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349

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Bioresource Technology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biortech

Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous modeling of a large anaerobic

digester producing biogas from cattle waste
Anil K. Dhussa a, Surinder S. Sambi b, Shashi Kumar c, Sandeep Kumar c, Surendra Kumar c,⇑
a
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India, Block-14, CGO Complex, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India
b
University School of Chemical Technology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector – 16 C, Dwarka, Delhi 110078, India
c
Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, Uttarakhand, India

h i g h l i g h t s

 Anaerobic digester yields dynamic behavior under frequent changes in feed.

 An empirical approach utilizing ANN has been used.
 NARX network has been used to model the dynamic behavior.
 Predictions of biogas produced compare well with plant data within ±8% deviation.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In waste-to-energy plants, there is every likelihood of variations in the quantity and characteristics of the
Received 24 May 2014 feed. Although intermediate storage tanks are used, but many times these are of inadequate capacity to
Received in revised form 21 July 2014 dampen the variations. In such situations an anaerobic digester treating waste slurry operates under
Accepted 22 July 2014
dynamic conditions. In this work a special type of dynamic Artificial Neural Network model, called Non-
Available online 1 August 2014
linear Autoregressive Exogenous model, is used to model the dynamics of anaerobic digesters by using
about one year data collected on the operating digesters. The developed model consists of two hidden
Keywords:
layers each having 10 neurons, and uses 18 days delay. There are five neurons in input layer and one neu-
Biogas
Artificial Neural Network
ron in output layer for a day. Model predictions of biogas production rate are close to plant performance
NARX model within ±8% deviation.
Anaerobic digester Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cattle waste treatment

1. Introduction
Anaerobic processes are one of the most attractive methods for
the treatment of organic liquid effluents and organic solid wastes.
The reason is obvious because it produces biogas which contains
methane and carbon dioxide. Biogas is a renewable energy source.
It can be used as a fuel and can be converted into electricity using
biogas engine. Biogas can also be upgraded or enriched to contain
more than 95% methane (also known as bio-methane), which can
be used to produce chemicals or fed to natural gas grid to supple-
ment its requirement. Due to these benefits, anaerobic digestion
over a period of time has become a well-established technology
for the treatment of liquid and solid organic wastes.
At Haebowal (in Ludhiana, Punjab, India), Punjab Energy Devel-
opment Agency (PEDA), Chandigarh established a waste-to-energy
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 9897077460; fax: +91 1332273560.
E-mail address: skumar.iitroorkee@gmail.com (S. Kumar).
plant in October 2004, which utilizes 235 ton/day cattle dung
(manure). Location of the plant was rightly chosen as there was a
huge dairy complex nearby, producing more than 2000 ton/day
of cattle dung/manure. This facility was created as one of the major
initiatives of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government
of India, to set up waste-to-energy demonstration plants based
upon different technologies under United Nations Development
Programme – Global Environmental Facility (UNDP-GEF pro-
gramme). This waste-to-energy (WTE) plant demonstrates BIMA
(Biogas Induced Mixing Arrangement) digester technology, which
is the patented technology of Entec, Austria.
Initially the plant operated successfully, but with the passage of
time plant faced shortage of raw material due to one or other rea-
son such as prolonged rainy season, improper management of cat-
tle dung collection from dairies by the contractor due to very early
milking of cattle, and higher raw material cost insisted by the
farmers. This resulted in short supply of cattle dung/manure vary-
ing in wide range between 110 and 235 ton/day. Due to frequent
variation in operating conditions namely influent flow rate, dry

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2014.07.078
0960-8524/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349
matter (DM) and volatile solids (VS), BIMA digesters operate
under unsteady state or dynamic conditions. Such a situation is
referred to as shock loading conditions. And thus BIMA digester
always was remained/operated under shock loading conditions.
Every day production of biogas and consequently electricity
fluctuated. Under these circumstances it was necessary to make a
prior estimate of biogas production based upon past history, if
possible.
In order to achieve this goal, data were collected for a period of
one year. As anaerobic digestion is a complex biochemical process,
occurring in several sequential steps, so Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) modeling of anaerobic process based upon huge data set
has been considered a plausible option. This paper reports analysis,
modeling, and result of this study. To the best of our knowledge,
Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) model has not yet
been developed for a large size anaerobic digesters (10000 m3
volume). A NARX model consists of exogenous inputs, which
means that the model relates the current value of a time series
with past values of that series, or with the present and past values
of the same series for predictions/forecasting.
Artificial Neural Network is a very powerful modeling tool
which can represent complex input/output relationships without
requiring a detailed flow pattern of anaerobic digester. It can deal
with most of simulation and prediction problems. It is a massively
parallel network which can learn very complex nonlinear relation
from a large data set.
Artificial Neural Networks have been used by many researchers
for modeling the many chemical and biochemical processes (Çoruh
et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2001; Huanga et al., 2011; Gitifar et al.,
2013). These networks have also been applied to model anaerobic
digestion process. Yetilmezsoy (2013) developed ANN models to
predict biogas production rate and methane production rate on
the basis of the steady state data from pilot scale mesophilic ‘Up
flow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket’ (UASB) reactor of 90 L volume.
Qdais (2010) developed an Artificial Neural Network for modeling
of biogas production from Russeifah biogas plant belonging to
Jordan Biogas Company, which utilized 60 ton/day of organic waste
from slaughter house, restaurants, fruits, vegetable and dairy
markets. Their study illustrates that the error during simulation
process can be minimized using time-series data learning and
hence they set output as a time-dependent variable on the preced-
ing three days inputs. However, there was no mention of type of
dynamic network used by them for time series prediction and a
static network was only depicted in the research paper. Strik
(2005) used ‘MATLAB’ neural network toolbox to predict trace
gases namely hydrogen sulfide and ammonia in biogas stream.
They used two 20 L lab scale anaerobic continuous stirred tank
reactors (CSTRs), one for H2S and other for NH3 production.
Ozkaya (2007) developed a neural network model to predict
methane percentage in landfill gas from field-scale landfill bioreac-
tor (Placement area = 1250 m2; height of test cell = 5 m). Mahanty
et al. (2013) developed a Neural Network to produce specific
methane yield from industrial sludge of Ulsan industrial complex
at laboratory scale.
After the exhaustive literature review, it has been observed that
most of the researchers have used static neural networks for
modeling of anaerobic digesters and the digesters are of small size.
Therefore, dynamic neural networks have not yet been used for the
modeling of large size anaerobic digesters producing biogas.
Dynamic neural networks are generally more powerful than static
networks, because dynamic networks possess memory, they can be
trained to learn from time varying pattern. In dynamic networks
the output depends not only on the current input to the networks
but also on the current and/or previous inputs, outputs or states of
the network (Beale et al., 2013). So, dynamic networks are more
suitable for time series type predictions.
343
NARX network is one of the dynamic networks, which have
been used by many researchers in different fields for time series
prediction. It has been demonstrated that NARX recurrent neural
networks have the potential to capture the dynamics of nonlinear
complex systems (Diaconescu, 2008). Arbain (2012) have used
NARX network for water level forecasting of Dungun River. Su
(1992) have shown that NARX network in biological wastewater
treatment facility and in catalytic reforming system in a petroleum
refinery for multiple-step ahead prediction are more superior to
feed forward dynamic networks.
The literature review has motivated us to model the behavior of
large size anaerobic digesters operating at Haebowal under
dynamic conditions to predict the biogas production by NARX
network, and thus this is the main theme of present paper.
2. Methodology
2.1. Description of the plant
Fig. 1 depicts the process flow diagram of the WTE plant. The
fresh cattle manure is collected in the collection tank. It is mixed
with fresh water in a homogenization tank to obtain the waste
slurry of uniform characteristics (solid concentration <10%). Waste
slurry is fed to two BIMA (Biogas-Induced-Mixing-Arrangement)
digesters, connected in parallel, working volume of each digester
is 5000 m3, and so total digester volume becomes 10,000 m3. The
main advantage of BIMA digester is its mixing system (does not
require mechanical moving parts), its ability to control scum/sedi-
ments, and its capacity to handle reasonable high concentration of
solids. A biological desulphurization unit has been created in the
separated upper section in the digester to reduce H2S content of
biogas below 200 ppm. Biogas produced in the digester passes
through upper section before it can be utilized to generate power
by biogas engine. Biogas can also be stored, if necessary in a dry
type gas holder made of a synthetic polyester membrane, which
is suspended in a concrete silo. The digested substrate from the
digester is dewatered in a screw press. The BOD/COD concentration
of the press water is reduced to acceptable levels in a conventional
Effluent treatment plant. The dried manure obtained through
screw presses shows much better availability of nutrients for the
plants/crops due to its biochemical composition, and thus can be
sold to farmers. Presently it is picked up by farmers themselves
from the plant site at a nominal cost of Rs. 1100.00 per ton for their
use. Electric power generated is sold to the state utility services.
2.2. NARX model
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides a modeling technique
for modeling process systems, which is based upon measurements
of input–output variables. It does not require application of conser-
vation laws for mass, momentum and energy, and also constitutive
properties and correlations associated with the process system.
This approach is capable of developing models for steady state or
dynamic behavior of the process. NARX model is one of the neural
networks methodologies, which can be used to model the dynamic
behavior of the process. A neural network in general consists of
highly interconnected layers of neuron like nodes (Chetouami,
2007). There are input and output layers, and hidden layers placed
between them. The numbers of nodes in input and output layers
correspond to input and output variables of the process respec-
tively. The number of hidden layers and the number of nodes in
each of them are decided by the user, and can vary from one to a
finite number.
In NARX model, values of input variables and output variables
of previous times or days are utilized to predict the current value
344 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349

Heat Exchanger
Water

Power
Exhaust Grid
Gases
Biogas Flare

Bio Gas
BIMA engine
Digester Gas Capacity
Storage 1 MW
Make-up Fresh Biodesulphurization
Animal Manure Water Unit

Digested
slurry
Cattle Dung Homogenization
Collection Tank Effluent
Tank
Buffer Tank

Treated water

Heat
Exchanger Digested Slurry

Clarifier Water Evaporated

Screw press
Press
water
Aerated Effluent
Digested Solids
Treatment Basin
Yard

To Drain

Solids Dewatered Sludge Biofertilizer

Fig. 1. Process flow sheet of the waste-to-energy plant.

of output variable. Fig. 2 depicts a NARX model of a system. u(tn), yðtnþ1 Þ ¼ /½yðt n Þ;:::::;yðtk Þ;::::;yðtndþ1 Þ;uðt n Þ;:::::;uðt k Þ;::::::;uðt ndþ1 Þ
u(tn  1), . . .. . .u(tn  d + 1) are input variables on nth, (n  1)th. . .. . . ð1Þ
and (n  d + 1)th days, and y(tn), y(tn  1), . . .. . .y(tn  d + 1) are corre-
sponding output variables. z1 represents one time or day lag. where y(tk) is the Auto-Regressive Variable or predicted process
There is one hidden layer of neurons. The model predicting the output, u(tk) is the exogenous variable or process input, and /
output variable can be written as follows: denotes a nonlinear function. d represents days or time delay.
Let x be a column vector containing input variables, y(tk) and
Output Layer
u(tk), and w(k) be the vector of weights associated with each input
Input Layer Hidden Layers
variable. Then, input to the jth neuron in input layer can be calcu-
lated as
y(tn) One Two
X
p
netj ðt k Þ ¼ wji ðt k Þxi ðt k Þ þ bj ð2Þ
Z-1 i¼1

where p is the number of input nodes (neurons), i.e. d + d = 2d;

Output y(tn-1) different d’s may be assumed for input and output variables; wji is
the connection weight between ith input neuron and jth hidden
Z-1 neuron; bj is the bias term for jth hidden neuron. Output from the
jth neuron in hidden layer can be determined as follows:
y(tn+1)
zj ðtk Þ ¼ f j ½netj ðt k Þ ð3Þ
y(tn-d+1)

where fj is a function, which is generally taken as sigmoid function.

z(tk) is the vector of outputs from q neurons in hidden layer. Now,
u(tn-d+1) one can compute input from jth neuron in hidden layer to lth
neuron in output layer.
Z-1 X
q
netl ðt k Þ ¼ wlj ðt k Þzj ðt k Þ ð4Þ
j¼1
Input u(tn-1)
wlj is the weight for the connection between jth node in hidden
Z-1 layer and lth node in output layer. Finally the output from lth node
in output layer is calculated by using fl linear activation function as
u(tn)
follows:
v l ðtk Þ ¼ f l ½netl ðtk Þ ð5Þ
Fig. 2. NARX model.
 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349 345

It is mentioned that if felt necessary bias term can also be incor-

porated in neurons in hidden and output layers, i.e. in Eqs. (4) and
(5), as done previously in Eq. (2).

2.3. Collection of data

Values of operational variables were collected from the plant for

350 days. The data include flow rate, % DM (dry matter), and % VS
(volatile solids) of feed slurry, and pH and temperature in the BIMA
(Biogas-Induced-Mixing-Arrangement) digester, and biogas gener-
ation per day. The statistical summary of the variables are given in
the Table 1. In this study flow rate, % DM, % VS, pH and Tempera-
ture were taken as input variables and biogas generation as target
or output variable. The data were pre-processed by transforming
the data into normalized data using the maximum value of the cor-
responding variables. Hence normalized data were having a range
of [0–1]. This is suitable for the treatment by the sigmoid activa-
tion function in the ANN.
Fig. 3 shows variation of variables viz., % DM (dry matter), % VS
(volatile solids), influent flow rate, and biogas generated for a typ-
ical month. During this month pH and the temperature remained
constant close to 6.6 and 24 °C respectively.

2.4. Implementation of NARX model

In this study, MATLAB R2013a was used for modeling and sim-
ulation of anaerobic process. 350 data sets were divided into two
parts, one part contained 335 data set and other one contained
15 data set only. 335 data sets were used for the training of Neural
Network and rest 15 data set were used for validation of the model
by comparing the biogas production obtained in the plant with
that predicted by the model.
The development of NARX model architecture involves several
steps which are to be performed iteratively to arrive at optimum
architecture and methods. These are as follows:
(a) Assume Network architecture i.e. number of hidden layers,
neurons in each hidden layer and number of delays.
(b) Divide data set (335 data) into 3 data set viz. training set,
validation set and test set. For this step also suitable function
is to be chosen.
(c) Optimize network architecture by using appropriate criteria.
This also includes the selection of appropriate training
algorithm.
In the following subsections, above details have been described
for optimized network only.
2.4.1. Division of data set
The data set was divided into three subsets, training set, valida-
tion set and test set. Training set is used for computing the gradient
and updating the network weights and biases. Validation set is
used to get an estimate of out of sample error. Validation error is
unbiased estimate of out of sample error provided that out of
Fig. 3. Daily variation of operating variables in a particular month.
sample error is just measured and is not used. In present work this
error has been used as the stopping criteria for iteration. During
the training process validation error initially decreases, however
when the network tends to overfit the data, the validation error
begins to increase. The weights and biases are saved at the mini-
mum of validation set error. Hence, validation error is no more
an unbiased estimate of out of sample error. To get an unbiased
out of sample error a third set called test set has been used (CC
BY-NC-ND, 2012).
In this work, 70%, 15% and 15% data sets were used as training
set, validation set and test set respectively. Three type of functions
provided by MATLAB for dividing the data namely, dividerand,
divideblock and divideint were tested. dividerand divides the data
set randomly into the three subsets i.e. training set, validation
set and test set. divideblock divides the data set into three subsets
using three contiguous blocks. The first 70% of the data are
assigned to the training set, the next 15% to the validation set

Table 1
Statistical summary of operating variables based upon plant data for 350 days.

Variables Unit No. of data Minimum Maximum Average Median

3
Feed flow rate m /day 350 59 442 228.87 232
HRT day 350 22.62 169.49 49.29 43.1
DM % 350 3.24 38.31 9.03 9.09
VS % 350 72 88.52 82.03 82.3
pH 350 6.1 6.9 6.58 6.6
Temperature °C 350 20 33 26.95 27
Biogas generated m3/day 350 1008 7000 3874.89 3600
346 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349

Table 2
Evaluation of functions used for dividing the data.

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Function Overall Training set Validation set Test set Correlation coefficient, R
dividerand 0.0059 0.0053 0.0069 0.0076 0.9013
divideint 0.0048 0.0039 0.0069 0.0072 0.9195
divideblock 0.0044 0.0035 0.0059 0.0071 0.9265

Table 3
Determination of appropriate time lag.

Time lag, No. of days Overall performance Training Validation Test Correlation coefficient, R
5 0.0061 0.0053 0.0079 0.0081 0.8988
10 0.0059 0.0050 0.0087 0.0075 0.9004
15 0.0056 0.0051 0.0059 0.0075 0.9068
20 0.0044 0.0030 0.0069 0.0087 0.9284
25 0.0055 0.0038 0.0087 0.0101 0.9097
16 0.0054 0.0034 0.0092 0.0111 0.9110
17 0.0056 0.0041 0.0074 0.0110 0.9088
18 0.0044 0.0035 0.0059 0.0071 0.9265
19 0.0047 0.0040 0.0052 0.0074 0.9236

Table 4
Selection of neurons in hidden layer.

Mean Square Error (MSE)

NARX model Number of neurons in hidden layers Overall Training set Validation set Test set Correlation coefficient, R
With d = 18 days 5–5 0.0047 0.0031 0.0065 0.0109 0.9219
10–10 0.0044 0.0035 0.0059 0.0071 0.9265
15–15 0.0056 0.0051 0.0059 0.0075 0.9068
20–20 0.0045 0.0031 0.0073 0.0082 0.9270
25–25 0.0049 0.0030 0.0078 0.0111 0.9187
50–50 0.0046 0.00084 0.0109 0.0163 0.9251
5–10 0.0053 0.0045 0.0066 0.0081 0.9112
10–5 0.0054 0.0046 0.0070 0.0074 0.9107
10–8 0.0051 0.0040 0.0079 0.0072 0.9152
10–12 0.0050 0.0040 0.0079 0.0072 0.9152
12–12 0.0051 0.0039 0.0067 0.0088 0.9200
13–13 0.0054 0.0040 0.0063 0.0111 0.9099
14–14 0.0050 0.0039 0.0075 0.0079 0.9156

and the last 15% to the test set. divideint divides the data set by an
interleaved method i.e. data is to cycle between the training set,
validation set and test set according to percentages. Initially we
took divideblock for data division as suggested in Matlab Central
(2013) for time series prediction. Later when optimum NARX
architecture and optimum training algorithm were obtained, then
the same was verified by taking all 3 divide functions to determine
one, giving the smallest Mean Squared Error (MSE).
From the Table 2, it can be seen clearly that divideblock function
gives smallest overall MSE, as well as smallest MSE for test set, and
highest correlation coefficient, R. Therefore, the divideblock was
chosen as the divide function for this study.
2.4.2. Selection of appropriate delay or time lag
There are two BIMA digesters in WTE plant, each of 5000 m3
volume. In digesters, sampling ports at various heights have been
provided. The analysis of samples withdrawn from various ports
clearly indicates that the mixing in the BIMA digester can be
approximated as that in an ideal CSTR. From the residence time
distribution (RTD) functions of an ideal CSTR, it is known that
the effluent at any time comprises of fluid elements of different
ages (Levenspiel, 1999; Fogler, 2006). Therefore, the biogas pro-
duction not only depends on the feed conditions of that day but
also depends on feed conditions of several previous days. To get
the optimum number of delays that could describe the system
dynamics as closely as possible, different values of delays for NARX
network were considered during simulations. Chosen NARX net-
work consists of two hidden layers and ten neurons in each hidden
layer. The results with traincgb training algorithm are shown in
Table 3. From this table, it can be inferred that the delay line with
a maximum delay of 18 days for each input and target or output
vectors gives overall best performance .
2.4.3. Optimization of neurons in hidden layers
Choosing the right network architecture is an important task of
ANN-based studies. This is very important for getting good predic-
tion by the developed network. In this study the simulations were
conducted for NARX network by taking various numbers of neu-
rons in the hidden layers with 18 days delay. tangent sigmoid
transfer function (tansig) at the hidden layers and linear transfer
function (purelin) at the output layers were used. Sigmoid transfer
function is the most suitable function to describe non-linear rela-
tionship such as the case in biogas production (Kanat and Saral,
2009).
The Table 4 shows that the simulations were started from 5
neurons in each layer, which were increased by an interval of 5.
It was observed that the best validation and test performances
(MSE) should lie between 5 and 15 neurons in each hidden layer.
Too many neurons lead to over fitting; for example the case with
50 neurons in each hidden layer gives very low training set error
 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349 347

Table 5
Comparison of performance of training algorithms.

Functions Algorithms MSE Correlation coefficient, R

trainlm Levenberg–Marquardt 0.0065 0.9044
trainbfg BFGS quasi newton 0.0047 0.9225
trainrp Resilient backpropagation 0.0070 0.8828
trainscg Scaled conjugate gradient 0.0049 0.9188
traincgb Conjugate gradient with Powell/Beale restarts 0.0044 0.9265
traincgf Fletcher–Powell conjugate gradient 0.0045 0.9255
traincgp Polak–Ribiere conjugate gradient 0.0048 0.9222
trainoss One step secant 0.0053 0.9108
traingdx Variable learning rate gradient descent 0.0052 0.9139
traingdm Gradient descent with momentum 0.0099 0.8283
traingd Gradient descent 0.0101 0.8272

Fig. 4. (a) Variation of MSE with Epochs and, (b) auto correlation of error.

(0.00084) but errors in validation and test sets are very high i.e.
0.0109 and 0.0163 respectively. Thereafter, simulations were per-
formed by using the model having neurons in hidden layers
between 5 and 15. It can be seen clearly from the Table 4 that
the model with 10 neurons in each hidden layer gives best valida-
tion and test set performance (smallest MSEs). Thus, final neural
network architecture for NARX model consists of 2 hidden layers
each containing 10 neurons, and tapped delay lines with delay of
18 days for each input and output vectors.
2.4.4. Selection of training algorithm
In MATLAB, several training algorithms are available to train a
network. These algorithms use the gradient of the performance
function (MSE) to determine the adjustment of weights to mini-
mize the performance criteria (MSE). The gradient is determined
using a technique called back propagation (Beale et al., 2013). In
single layer perceptron the desired output is known and synaptic
weights can be directly modified to minimize the error. But in
Fig. 5. Daily variation of operating variables during 15 days for which predictions of
biogas production rate have been made.
multi-layer perceptron synaptic weights can be modified only for
the output layer; synaptic weights of the preceding hidden layer
cannot be modified as its desired output is not known. Back prop-
agation technique propagates the output error backward to the
immediate preceding hidden layer, and so on. In this way it distrib-
utes the error in order to arrive at a best fit or minimum error.
There are many variations of the back propagation algorithm. It
is very difficult to know which algorithm is best for a particular
network and data set. Generally the Levenberg–Marquardt algo-
rithm is the fastest training algorithm and is commonly used. How-
ever, in this study all training algorithms given in MATLAB were
used one by one to train the network, consisting of 10 neurons in
each hidden layer of NARX network with 18 days delay for every
input and target or output variables. divideblock for dividing data,
tangent sigmoid transfer function (tansig) in hidden layer and
348 A.K. Dhussa et al. / Bioresource Technology 170 (2014) 342–349
linear transfer function (purelin) in output layer were used to
perform respective tasks. Results in respect of MSE and R with
different functions and algorithms are given in the Table 5.
It is obvious (Table 5) that traincgb is the best suited training
algorithm for NARX model of present anaerobic digester as it gives
minimum MSE 0.0044 and maximum value of R = 0.9265.
Fig. 4(a) provides plots of MSE versus number of Epochs
obtained during training, validation and testing of optimized
network with associated algorithms for anaerobic digesters.
During the validation, MSE reaches to the minimum value in 21
iterations, but training continues for 6 more iterations before it is
stopped.
Autocorrelation is the cross-correlation of a time series data
with itself. In fact, it is the similarity between observations as a
function of time lag between them. For a perfect prediction model,
there should only be one nonzero value of the autocorrelation
function and it should occur at zero lag. This would mean that pre-
diction errors were completely uncorrelated with each other. As
shown in the Fig. 4(b), the autocorrelation of errors in present
study falls approximately within the 95% confidence limits around
zero except for the one at zero lag. Thus the model appears to be
adequate to represent the dynamic behavior of anaerobic digesters
(M.D.C., 2014).
Fig. 6. (a) Comparison of NARX model prediction with actual biogas production,
and (b) comparison of actual and predicted values (biogas production rate).
3. Results and discussion
After ascertaining the prediction capabilities of developed
NARX neural network model, the model was used to predict biogas
production day by day for the next 15 days. This was done by using
one day ahead prediction method. As the 335 data sets were used
to train the network, so prediction of biogas were made on 336th
day by using that day input data set and the model. Then for the
337th day, actual production of bio-gas of 336th day was also used
as input in the trained network, and so on. In order to show the
daily variations in influent flow rate, % DM, and % VS during these
fifteen days, Fig. 5(a) and (b) have been prepared. It is obvious that
there are considerable variations in these three variables. However,
the pH is constant, and there are very small variations in operating
temperature.
The predictions of biogas production rate made by the model
are shown in the Fig. 6(a) where both the actual and predicted bio-
gas production rates are plotted as a function of time. Besides, the
accuracy of measurement of biogas production rate is ±1%. So the
dotted lines corresponding to +1% and 1% deviations with respect
to measured values (actual values) have also been shown in the
figure. It can be seen from Fig. 6(b) that the developed NARX
model is capable of predicting the quantity of biogas produced
in the anaerobic digesters of a WTE plant within ±8% deviation
inspite of significant variations in operating conditions during
these days.
4. Conclusion
Anaerobic digesters of a considered WTE plant treat cattle
manure to produce biogas, and subsequently electricity. Being
microbial process, it is desired to have minimum possible variation
in operating conditions. However it is difficult to achieve this goal
in practice and the digester shows the dynamic behavior. This
work demonstrates the use of NARX network to model the dynam-
ics of a large size anaerobic digester. Developed NARX model
predicts daily biogas production rate within ±8% deviation. It is
our view that NARX model may be used to estimate daily biogas
production rate accurately and also to develop appropriate control
strategies for the process.
Acknowledgements
Authors acknowledge the support provided by Punjab Energy
Development Agency (PEDA), Chandigarh, and the Ministry of
New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, New
Delhi, during the course of this research work.
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