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Forecasting Incidence of Dengue in Rajasthan
Forecasting Incidence of Dengue in Rajasthan
85]
Original Article
Abstract
Aim: To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series
data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Materials and
Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling.
Results: During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal
variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and
mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance
explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung–Box test (Q statistic 4.910
and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for
the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Conclusion: Application
of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious
diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.
of DF/DHF enables suitable allocation of resources for approximately stationary. A stationary time series is one
improved public health interventions. whose statistical properties such as mean and variance
are constant over time. Seasonality usually causes the
The outbreaks of DF/DHF can be predicted by series to be nonstationary because the average values at
epidemiological modeling thus enabling the health some particular times within the seasonal span may be
systems to be in readiness to manage outbreaks. Time different than the average values at other times.
series analysis has been increasingly used in the field of
epidemiological research on infectious diseases, such as SPSS version 19.0 was used to determine the best-fitting
influenza4 and malaria5-7 and dengue.8-13 model. The stationarity of the series was made by means
of seasonal and nonseasonal differencing. The order of
The objective of the present study was to develop a autoregression (AR) and moving average (MA) were
prediction model for DF/DHF using time series data over identified using autocorrelation function (ACF) and
the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast the monthly partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the differenced
DF/DHF incidence for the year 2011. series.
at annual lags (and its multiples), which indicated the Discussion and Conclusion
need to include a 12-month difference term in the models
(S = 12, D = 1) [Figure 1]. The ACF and PACF plots ARIMA models are useful in modeling the temporal
of the differenced series provided further support for dependence structure of a time series as they explicitly
these conclusions [Figure 1]. Therefore, a SARIMA assume temporal dependence between observations.16
(p,0,q) (P,1,Q)12 was selected as the basic structure of Particularly for seasonal diseases, ARIMA models have
the candidate model. been shown to be adequate tools for use in epidemiological
surveillance.17 Our study provides an example of applying
Among the statistical models, SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 a SARIMA model to forecast incidence of DF/DHF.
was selected as the best model, with the lowest normalized Although these models have been utilized to forecast
BIC of 9.426 and a MAPE of 263.361 [Table 1]. The DF/DHF incidence in several countries,8-13 such analyses
model explained 54.3% of the variance of the series has not been undertaken in an Indian situation before.
(stationary R-squared). The model parameters were
significant (P-value <0.001) with MA in the model, Among all candidate models, SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12
seasonal lag 1 of β = 0.756 (SE = 0.135). was the most suitable predictive model in our study, which
showed the highest stationary R-squared and the lowest
Ljung–Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996) normalized BIC and MAPE values. In a recent study in
suggested that there were no significant autocorrelation Brazil, SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1)12 model offered best fit for
between residuals at different lag times and the residuals the dengue incidence data.8 However, in a previous study
were white noise. This was further corroborated by by Luz et al.,10 for monitoring dengue incidence in Rio
plotting the ACF and PACF of the residuals [Figure 2]. de Janeiro, Brazil, no seasonal differencing was reported
and SARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0)12 model was deemed best fit.
Moreover, the same model was also returned by the Choudhury et al.,9 reported SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,1)12 as
expert modeler. Having tested its validity, the prediction the most suitable model for forecasting dengue incidence
model was used to forecast incidence of DF/DHF cases in
the upcoming season in 2011. Figure 3 shows the month- Table 1: Normalized bayesian information criteria (BIC), mean
wise trends of DF/DHF over the past 10 years and for absolute percentage error (MAPE) and stationary R-squared
2011. The cases showed a similar seasonality, with a peak values of SARIMA models
in the month of October similar to previous years with an Models MAPE Normalized Stationary
BIC R-squared
estimated 546 cases (95% CI 311–781). The momentum
SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 263.361 9.426 0.543
in dengue would begin in August 2011, peak in October, SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,0)12 299.842 9.809 0.330
and then wane off toward December [Figure 3]. SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,1)12 245.526 9.590 0.516
SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,0)12 198.894 9.727 0.445
SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0)12 160.090 9.761 0.394
a b c d
Figure 1: Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial autocorrelation function (PACF)
of data and transformed series Footnote: (a) shows time series data without any
difference; (b) shows transformed series with seasonal difference (1, period 12);
(c) shows transformed series with nonseasonal difference (1); (d) shows transformed Figure 2: Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF)
series with both seasonal (1, period 12) and nonseasonal difference (1) of residuals
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Source of Support: Nil. Conflict of Interest: No.
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