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Spatial Analysis of Pediatric Burns Shows Geographical Clustering of Burns and Hotspots' of Risk Factors in New South Wales, Australia
Spatial Analysis of Pediatric Burns Shows Geographical Clustering of Burns and Hotspots' of Risk Factors in New South Wales, Australia
of Pages 9
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Article history: Objective: Pediatric burns are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, and it is
Accepted 23 February 2016 estimated that more than 80% are preventable. Studies among adults have shown that
burns risk are geographically clustered, and higher in socioeconomically-disadvantaged
Keywords: areas. Few studies among children have examined whether burns are geographically
Pediatric burns clustered, and if burn prevention programs are best targeted to high-risk areas.
Trauma Method: Retrospective analyses examined the 2005-to-2014 NSW Severe Burns Injury Service
Burns prevention data. Geospatial imaging software was used to map the relative-risk and clustering of burns by
Health policy postcodes in Greater Sydney Area (GSA). Cluster analyses were conducted using Getis-Ord and
Plastic surgery Global Moran’s I statistics. High- and low-risk populations and areas were examined to
ascertain differences by sociodemographic characteristics, etiology and the extent of the burn.
Results: Scalds were the most common types of burns and boys were at greater risk than girls.
There was significant clustering of burns by postcode area, with a higher relative risk of burns
in western and north-western areas of Sydney. The high-risk clusters were associated with
socioeconomic disadvantage, and areas of low burns risk were associated with socioeconomic
advantage. In both high- and low-risk areas burns occurred more frequently in the 12–24
months and the 24–36 months age groups. The implication of this study is that pediatric burns
risk clustering occurs in specific geographic regions that are associated with socioeconomic
disadvantage. The results of this study provide greater insight into how pediatric populations
can be targeted when devising intervention strategies, and suggest that an area-targeted
approach in socioeconomically-disadvantaged areas may reduce burns risk.
# 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.
* Corresponding author at: Burns Unit, Concord Repatriation General Hospital, Hospital Road, Concord, NSW 2139, Australia.
Tel.: +61 2 9767 7775; fax: +61 2 9767 7435.
E-mail address: dgoltsman@optusnet.com.au (D. Goltsman).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
0305-4179/# 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
Fig. 1 – Location map of New South Wales and the Greater Sydney Area.
Index of Education and Occupation. The indices were divided analyses showed a significant Global Moran I statistic
into deciles, to improve map comparison accuracy. ( p = 0.05), confirming spatial clustering of burns among
children in the greater Sydney area.
AHURI also identified socio-demographically typologies
3. Results within these ‘disadvantaged places’. The 2 typology categories
that occur in the western and north western ‘hot spots’ are
3.1. Spatial distribution of burns typology category 1 (high on young people and single parent
house holds) and typology category 2 (high on overseas
The map of burns risk by area in The Greater Sydney Area is movers and two parent families).
shown in Fig. 2 Higher risk was seen in the western and north In the greater Sydney area, spatial clustering of high risk
western areas of Sydney corresponding with the ‘disadvan- was evident in the western and north-western areas (Fig. 3),
tage places’ identified by the Australian Housing and Urban and two clusters of low risk were seen in the eastern and
Research Institute (AHURI) [44]. The spatial autocorrelation south-eastern areas. The high-risk clusters were associated
with socioeconomic disadvantage, and one of the areas of low
burns risk was associated with socioeconomic advantage
(Fig. 4).
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
risk of scald burns, 5 times the risk of contact burns, and 4 were mainly due to scalds (64.29%) and flames (35.71%).
times the risk of flame burns compared to low-risk areas. (Fig. 8)
The etiology of burns differed between boys and girls,
however the gender patterning of burns did not vary between 3.4. Adequacy of first aid
high-and low-risk areas (Fig. 7).
In high-risk areas, burns involving less than or equal to The adequacy of burn first aid was assessed on the basis of
10% TBSA were mainly due to scalds (61.15%), contact clinical history provided by patients on admission to hospital.
(26.20%) and friction (5.64%) burns. Burns in high-risk areas Using ISBI and NSW SBIS guidelines adequate first aid was
that accounted for 10% or more TBSA were mainly due to considered to be cooling the burn surface by the application of
scalds (78.95%), flames (14.04%) or radiant heat (7.02%). A running cold water.
similar pattern was seen in low-risk areas, with burns 10% In high-risk areas fewer burns received adequate first-aid
TBSA being due to scald (58.69%), contact (31.83%) and flame (57.27%) compared to low-risk areas (64.77%). One death due to
(4.06%) burns. In low-risk areas burns over 10% of TBSA burns occurred over the study period.
Fig. 7 – Table showing the mechanisms of pediatric burns for high and low risk areas according to gender.
Fig. 8 – Table showing the mechanisms of pediatric burns for high and low risk areas according to extent of injury (%TBSA).
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
3.5. Socioeconomic characteristics of areas to identify areas of increased/decreased risk and their
association with sociodemographic factors, burn etiology
Fig. 9a shows spatial clusters of low risk in socio-economical- and adequacy of first aid. Overall, the findings support that
ly-advantaged areas, as captured by the composite SEIFA an area-based approach targeting lower socioeconomic areas
index, corresponding with postcodes in the Sydney area. The may be effective for the prevention of pediatric burns in NSW
scatterplots shown in Fig. 9b illustrates no association and Sydney.
between burns risk and access to economic resources (ABS, The findings of the current study concur with similar
2013). However, burns risk increased with lower levels of research that was conducted in the Sydney area. Goltsman
education and occupation (Fig. 9c). et al. [7] applied similar geospatial methods to assess burns in all
age groups and found similar associations as seen in this
pediatric population. Poulos et al. [8] applied geospatial analyses
4. Discussion on pediatric burns in NSW from 2000 to 2005 and also found a
greater relative risk of pediatric burns in the western Sydney
This study used geospatial analyses to examine clustering of area. A key difference between Poulos et al. and the current
pediatric burns in the greater Sydney area. The findings study is that Poulos et al. used local government areas (LGAs)
showed significant clusters of high- and low risk in Sydney. rather than postcodes as spatial units of analysis. The use of
Furthermore, this study extended previous knowledge of LGAs may limit an examination of associations between
pediatric burns by utilizing a novel spatial analytical method relative burn rates and area-level sociodemographic factors,
Fig. 9 – Scatter plots showing association between the statistic (Gi*) indicating level of local spatial clustering and (a) index of
relative socio-economic disadvantage, (b) index of economic resources and (c) index of education and occupation. Red
indicates postcodes within statistically significant positive clusters (higher relative risk of pediatric burns), blue indicates
postcodes within negative clusters (lower relative risk of pediatric burns) and yellow indicates postcodes which are not
significantly clustered. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web
version of the article.)
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
due to local level variability within these larger areas. LGAs 95% of flammable liquid burns occurred in young adolescent
encompass several postcodes and their use as spatial units in males [26].
analysis tends to lead to a ‘dilution’ of associations within area- The results of our study concur with those seen in multiple
level sociodemographic characteristics. The current study studies, which assess developmental stages in children, and
represents a significant addition on previous Australian the mechanisms of burn injuries. The majority of burns in
research by using postcode areas, thereby enabling a more children aged 0–36 months were from scalds. A detailed
detailed and nuanced examination of area-level socioeconomic assessment by the National SAFE KIDS Campaign [27] in the US
characteristics on pediatric burns risk in Australia than has had similar findings with scald burns accounting for the
been achieved previously. The geospatial methodology used majority of burns in this age group yet, they had further
provides a unique platform for in-depth social ecological identified that given the curiosity encountered at this age,
exploration to understanding the determinants of burns. these injuries occurred mostly from hot liquids being spilled in
Differences in the incidence and nature of burns were evident the kitchen or dining room. Agran et al. assessed 23,173
by area-level socioeconomic characteristics. The results of this pediatric injuries by 3 monthly age intervals considering
study showed a significant association between high-risk burns pediatric stages of development. The study further identified
areas and areas associated with the 30th percentile of most that for children aged 12–17 months the leading cause for
socioeconomically disadvantaged communities in Australia. injuries were hot liquid and vapor injuries [28]. This age
International studies in developing and industrialized countries coincides with the child satisfying their growing curiosity by
have identified risk factors for burns in the community, also physically interacting with their surroundings. With the
finding that high population density, low literacy, ethnic attainment of milestones such as independent mobility and
minorities and income deprivation are associated with greater exploratory behavior they are able to better pursue interesting
burns risk [15,45]. Furthermore, risk is increased in single- objects, noises and cues. As a result of these characteristics
parent families and among people residing in sub-optimal living and a child’s primitively developed hazard awareness and
environments (i.e. crowded housing and lack of running avoidance skills [23,25], they are at high risk of accidents.
water) [16]. Given the lag between a child’s cognitive development and
Although a strength of the study, the use of postcode as advances in their motor skills, children may lack the ability to
the spatial unit to characterize area-level socioeconomic escape dangerous situations and comprehend the ramifica-
conditions was also a limitation. SEIFA scores for larger tions of their actions.
geographies, such as postcodes, are derived from the While some burns can be life threatening to children, the
population weighted average of smaller unit scores which majority leave them with characteristics similar to chronic
may mask socio-economic diversity within an area. Use of illness due to serious long-term physical and psychosocial
postcode level SEIFA information as a proxy for socio- problems [29]. Studies by have suggested that 20–50% of
economic disadvantage of individuals is susceptible to children experience psychological maladjustment issues
ecological inference fallacy particularly if there is individual showing symptoms such as depression, anxiety and a fear
diversity within the area. Although limitations of postcode of interacting with others after a severe burn [30]. Several
level data need to be recognized in examining association studies have shown that the most problematic of the
between pediatric burn incident and socio-economic disad- depressive reactions include suicidal ideations, self-rejec-
vantage, SEIFA is a robust data source that has potential for tion, aggressiveness, and irritability [31–36]. Anxiety is a more
informing the targeting of broader scale community aware- common complaint among pediatric burn patients compared
ness initiatives. to depression [36,37]. The most prevalent complaint of
Worldwide, children are commonly the victims of serious patients with anxiety meets the DSM criteria for posttrau-
burn injuries and often suffer pain, deformity, disability, matic stress disorder [34,37]. PTSD and symptoms of PTSD
and occasionally death [17]. The higher incidence has been have been observed as being prevalent in burns survivors of
attributed to common characteristics associated with all ages [37,38].
children at this age: impulsiveness, lack of awareness, high The leading cause of pediatric burns is scalds [23,25], which
energy levels, natural curiosity and total dependence on are avoidable in most instances. Studies in the US by Kemp
their caregiver [18–22]. In their thorough review of global et al. have shown that 1-years old children are 10 times more
burns Rayner and Prentice found that globally children likely to sustain burns or scalds than any other year school-
under the age of 2 years had the highest risk of DALYS lost aged child [39,40]. The incidence of scald burns drops
due to burns with the highest incidence occurring in dramatically at 3 years of age, this is thought to be the
children aged 7–12 months [23]. Mechanisms such as scalds consequence of increased cognitive awareness of the dangers
in this age group were attributed to care givers since infants of heat, coupled with more cautiousness and anticipatory
were unable to walk [24], in contrast older children had a management by parents and a greater time spent out of the
greater incidence of flame burns due to their age-related home [40].
characteristics [24,25]. Our study concurs with theses There is significant evidence from our study and other
finding of there being a significantly greater proportion of studies to suggest that pediatric burns are associated with
scald burns occurring in children aged 12–36 months, and a socioeconomic disadvantage [5,7,8,23,25,40]. Various issues
higher proportion of flame burns were seen in young and parental factors have been shown to play a significant role
adolescents aged 11–15 years in both high- and low-risk in children suffering burns. These include factors such as:
areas of Sydney. This result was similar to the findings of an income, parental knowledge of burn prevention and care,
Australian study by Henderson et al. which identified that education, literacy, parental age, supervision, home crowding,
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026
JBUR-4888; No. of Pages 9
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Please cite this article in press as: Goltsman D, et al. Spatial analysis of pediatric burns shows geographical clustering of burns and ‘hotspots’ of
risk factors in New South Wales, Australia. Burns (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2016.02.026