Base Oils (Asia-Pacific) 15 May 2020

15 May 2020
Base Oils
Asia Pacific
Chemical Prices | News | Analysis Editor: Matthew Chong
Overview | Outlook | Prices | Upstream | Production | News
Please click here for full details on the criteria ICIS uses in making these price assessments.
Overview
• Group I prices largely stable-to-soft
• Group II 70/150N prices see biggest declines
• Chinese demand for Group II 500/600N improves
Group I prices were mostly stable-to-soft in quiet trade, with buyers holding back on their purchases due to poor
downstream off take.
Group II prices for light grade 150N continued to fall by a larger extent as compared to heavy grade 500/600N, with
demand for the latter having seemingly improved in China, although overall demand outside China remained suppressed
on extended lockdowns in several countries.
Key Group II refiners in northeast Asia have slashed their 150N prices amid mounting inventory pressure.
In India, buying interest for cargoes stayed muted, with the extension of lockdown restrictions to 31 May from 17 May
in some areas including Maharashtra further dampening market sentiment. 70N import prices saw the biggest declines,
tracking lower offers and buying indications in tandem with weakening 150N prices.
Group III 4, 6cSt prices were stable-to-soft on lower selling indications from a South Korean refiner.
Outlook
• India demand unlikely to improve on lockdown extension
• Recent crude recovery to give battered sentiment a boost
• Refiners likely to further cut output as inventory piles up
Substitution Spread - Gas Oil and 150N NE Asia
The following chart shows the spread between gas oil FOB Singapore prices and 150N FOB NE Asia spot prices. Refiners'
huge incentive to produce base oils rather than gas oil fell further following the relatively sharper drops in base oils
prices.
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1

Base Oils Asia Pacific

Prices
SPOT PRICES - GROUP I BASE OILS
Price Range Four Weeks Ago
Base Oils Group I Paraffinic SN150
SN150 EX-TANK S'PORE USD/tonne -20 490-530 -20 615-645
SN150 FOB ASIA (EXP) USD/tonne -20 360-410 n/c 490-520
SN150 CFR INDIA USD/tonne -20 400-450 n/c 530-560
Base Oils Group I Paraffinic SN500
SN500 EX-TANK S'PORE USD/tonne n/c 500-550 n/c 585-615
SN500 FOB ASIA (EXP) USD/tonne -20 400-430 n/c 470-510
SN500 CFR INDIA USD/tonne -20 450-480 n/c 520-560
SN500 CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne -20 450-480 n/c 520-560
Base Oils Group I Paraffinic Brightstock
B/STK EX-TANK S'PORE USD/tonne -15 670-720 -15 755-785
B/STK FOB ASIA (EXP) USD/tonne -15 505-540 n/c 555-570
B/STK CFR INDIA USD/tonne -15 555-585 n/c 580-610
B/STK CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne -15 560-590 n/c 610-615
Click here for the list of deals and discussions.
SN150
In the regional Asian market, prices were stable-to-soft on lower buying indications at the low end of the range.
In the ex-tank Singapore market, the low end of the assessed range was dropped in line with FOB Asia prices, while the
high end of the assessed range was dropped in line with the low end.
2


In the India market, prices were stable-to-soft in a quiet market. The low end of the assessed range was dropped on a
notional basis in line with FOB Asia prices.
SN500
In the ex-tank Singapore market, prices were maintained amid muted talks.
In the India market, prices were stable-to-soft, with the low end of the assessed range dropped on a notional basis in
line with Asia prices.
Brightstock
In the ex-tank Singapore market, the low end of the assessed range was dropped in line with FOB Asia prices, while the
high end of the assessed range was dropped in line with the low end.
In the India market, the low end of the assessed range was dropped on a notional basis in line with Asia prices.
Group I domestic China

Prices in east China
Grade Change change
(CNY/tonne)
SN150 n/c 6,750-6,800 n/c
SN400 -100 6,850-6,900 -100
Brightstock n/c 7,000-7,200 n/c
Group I SN150 was unchanged with one week ago as the offers from Dalian Petrochemical and regional traders were
steady. However, SN400 fell amid the lower offers from regional traders as Dalian Petrochemical cut list prices of
SN400.
Brightstock prices were flat on last week as both Karamay Petrochemical and importers maintained the offers. However,
some market players said the prices will fall further as fresh cargoes will arrive soon with lower import costs.
SPOT PRICES - GROUP II BASE OILS

Base Oils Group II N150
150N EX-TANK S'PORE USD/tonne -50 480-520 -50 615-645
150N FOB NE ASIA USD/tonne -40 335-355 -30 440-490
150N CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne -40 350-370 -30 460-510
150N CFR INDIA USD/tonne -40 350-370 -30 460-510
500N EX-TANK S'PORE USD/tonne -5 575-615 n/c 655-680
500N FOB NE ASIA USD/tonne -10 465-490 -10 510-530
500N CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne -10 490-510 -10 530-550
3


150N
In the regional Asian market, prices fell on lower deals and bid.
In the ex-tank Singapore market, prices slipped on lower deals at the low end of the range. The high end of the
assessed range was dropped on a notional basis in line with the low end.
In the India market, prices were dropped on a notional basis in line with northeast Asia prices.
500/600N
In the regional Asian market, prices declined on lower deals and offers.
In the ex-tank Singapore market, prices were stable-to-soft on lower deals at the low end of the range.
In the India market, prices were dropped on a notional basis in line with northeast Asia prices.
70N
In India, prices declined on lower offers and buying indications.
Group II domestic China

Grade change change
(CNY/tonne)
60N n/c 5,350-5,400 n/c
150N -300 5,550-5,600 -300
70N n/c 8,900-9,000 n/c
500N -200 6,700-6,900 -100
Regional traders' offers of Group II N60 from Sinopec Gaoqiao were unchanged as the producer maintained its list
prices.
Imported N150 prices declined as Asian refiners cut further of its spot offers to China, so more import cargoes arrived
with much lower import costs in May. Therefore, importers reduced their offers to boost sales. After the continuous
decrease, imported N150 prices were much cheaper than local ones so more end-users were willing to take imported
N150.
Imported N500 prices dropped on the lower offers of Taiwan-origin and South Korea-origin from importers. The buying
sentiment of N500 was still healthy and importers still had the margins despite of cutting the offers to the end-users.
Imported Group II N70 prices were unchanged as spot discussions were within the published range.
4


SPOT PRICES - GROUP III BASE OILS
Base Oils Group III 4cSt
4cSt FOB ASIA USD/tonne n/c 600-750 -20 700-820
4cSt CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne n/c 630-780 -20 730-850
6cSt FOB ASIA USD/tonne n/c 610-760 -20 710-830
6cSt CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne n/c 640-790 -20 740-860
8cSt FOB ASIA USD/tonne n/c 590-600 n/c 690-700
8cSt CFR NE ASIA USD/tonne n/c 620-630 n/c 720-730
Spot prices of 4, 6cSt were stable-to-soft on lower selling indications at the high end of the range from a South Korean
refiner, while 8cSt prices held steady amid thin talks.
Group III domestic China

Grade change change
(CNY/tonne)
100N n/c 8,100-8,900 n/c
150N n/c 8,100-8,900 n/c
250N n/c 8,100-8,150 n/c
Group III prices were steady as importers maintained their offers of South Korean Group III cargoes. Importers also
maintained the offers of Middle East-origin Group III. However, sales was stagnant.
RELATED OIL PRODUCT PRICES (SPOT)

Gasoil 0.05%
0.05% GAS OIL USD/tonne +21 220-221 +21 236-237
Upstream
Crude prices firmed as the easing of lockdown measures across the globe fuelled upbeat sentiment on the demand side.
The first draw in US crude stocks since 17 January and an additional 1m bbl/day voluntary supply cut from Saudi Arabia
lent further support.
Crude oil 15-May* 08-May 01-May 24-Apr
ICE Brent 32.19 30.97 26.44 21.44
WTI 28.27 24.74 19.78 16.94
*Prices at 15:00 Singapore time
Click here for the Asia feedstocks and petrochemicals weekly summary.
5


Production
Company Location Grade tonnes/year Shutdown duration
To shut from mid-Aug
S-Oil Onsan, South Korea Group I 164,507 to end-Sep 2020 for
regular maintenance
45% of its Group
II/II+ production will
be stopped from mid-
S-Oil Onsan, South Korea Group II/II+ 1,150,000
Aug to end-Sep 2020
for regular
maintenance
Idle since 1 Aug
SK Lubricants Ulsan, South Korea Group II 300,000
2019
Op rate cut to 80%
from mid-Mar due to
1,150,000 (Group II)/ reduced raw material
GS Caltex Yeosu, South Korea Group II/III
148,000 (Group III) supply caused by
maintenance at its
crude distillation unit
Running at below full
ExxonMobil Singapore Group I 650,000
rates as of Aug 2019
Running at lower op
ExxonMobil Singapore Group II 1,700,000
rates
*Op rate resumed to
100% in end-Apr
after it was cut to
90% in mid-Apr 2020
Formosa due to technical
Mailiao, Taiwan Group II 600,000
Petrochemical Corp issues.
Turnaround delayed
to July 2020 from
June 2020.
Shandong
Weifang Shida Chang Weifang, Shandong, Shut since early May
Group II 300,000
Sheng Energy China 2019
Technology Co
Op rate cut to 50%
from full from early
March 2020 due to
PetroChina Dalian poor margins.
Dalian, China Group I 449,823
Petrochemical
50-day maintenance
delayed to 20 May
from late-Apr 2020.
Op rate cut to 70%
Sinopec
Shandong, China Group II 150,000 from 90% in Feb
Jinan Petrochemical
2020
To shut from mid-May
CNOOC Huizhou
Guangdong, China Group II 400,000 to late-Jun 2020 for
Petrochemical
regular maintenance
Restart date extended
from mid-April after it
CNOOC Taizhou
Jiangsu, China Group II 400,000 was shut since mid-
Petrochemical
Mar 2020 for regular
maintenance
Op rate cut in early
IRPC Rayong, Thailand Group I 340,000 Jan 2020 due to weak
production margins
Note: Updates are denoted with *
News
6


Visit the ICIS Coronavirus and oil price war topic page for analysis of the impact on chemical markets and links to latest
news.
Visit the ICIS US-China trade war topic page for analysis of the impact on chemical markets and links to latest news.
PODCAST: Asia Special Report - Asia Base Oils
Plant status: China Ningbo Bohui’s newly-built base oil unit starts up
Plant status: China’s Shandong Jincheng to start new base oil unit
Middle East base oils slump deepens on UAE port congestion
Freight rates
Load Port Discharge Port Cargo Size (tonnes) Rates ($/tonne)
South Korea Mainland China 3,000-5,000 25-35
South Korea Taiwan 3,000-5,000 28-30
South Korea Southeast Asia 1,000 70-75
South Korea Southeast Asia 3,000 65-70
South Korea West India 2,000-3,000 50-55
South Korea West India 2,000-7,000 45-50
South Korea West India 10,000 and above 35-40
Taiwan West India 3,000-5,000 60-62
Taiwan West India 10,000 and above 45-50
Source: Market sources
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15 May 2020

Substitution Spread - Gas Oil and 150N NE Asia

Group I domestic China

SPOT PRICES - GROUP II BASE OILS

Group II domestic China

Group III domestic China

RELATED OIL PRODUCT PRICES (SPOT)

Full Report List | Methodology | Publishing Schedule | Glossary

ICIS News | Supply & Demand | Analysis & Forecasting | Training | Consulting |

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