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Chính sách thương mại quốc tế của Việt Nam trong bối cảnh chiến tranh thương mại Trung - Mỹ-đã chuyển đổi
Chính sách thương mại quốc tế của Việt Nam trong bối cảnh chiến tranh thương mại Trung - Mỹ-đã chuyển đổi
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Abstract
Twenty two years since Vietnam began signing the first trade agreement AFTA in 1996, Vietnam has so far signed and
negotiated 16 international trade agreements. All that show that Vietnam is an active and reliable partner, a lucrative gold mine
that partners are targeting in Southeast Asia in particular and in Asia in general. When the rights between bilateral and
multilateral partners are affected, they will impose policies to cover losses from these agreements. And that is the first US
military gunfire against the Chinese economy, the most populous country and the world's largest factory. Following this wave,
we will have a more objective view of the level of influence as well as the opportunities for Vietnam to grasp the future of
trade war between the US and China.
92
Advantages of free trade policy are + Help regulate national payment, rational use of foreign
+ Any international trade barriers are removed to help currency payment of each country.
promote the freedom of domestic trade circulation. Disadvantages are when trade protection is too tight:
+ Making domestic market richer, consumers have the + Hurting the development of international trade will lead to
conditions to satisfy their needs in the best way. the economic isolation of a country that goes against
+ Creating a fierce competition environment in the domestic common trend of today’s global business.
market, stimulating manufacturers to develop and improve. + Protection too tight, leading to conditions to develop
+ If domestic manufacturers are strong enough to compete conservatism and stagnation in domestic businesses,
with foreign firms, the free trade policy will help domestic resulting in a lack of motivation to promote the development
traders expand abroad. Indeed, free trade policy first and improvement of the domestic economy.
appeared in England, the "cradle" of capitalism. England at + Many countries that protect too closely lead to losses to
that time was an industrial powerhouse, producing using domestic consumers because the market of goods is less
machines instead of manual labor forces to reduce the costs. diversified, designs and quality of goods are poorly
Goods produced were plentiful compared to the other improved, commodity prices are more expensive than their
developed neighbor nations such as France, Germany and real values.
Russia. It was able due to the implementation of the free
trade policy that helped British capitalists quickly invade the 3. Research Methodology
world market, causing other countries to enforce trade This article is using major research methods in social
protection regime against mass invasion of goods from science including dialectical materialism and historical
England. But after the economies of those countries have materialism, statistical and comparative methods, analyzing
been developed strongly, the free trade policy was to replace and synthesizing methods. This article is also using
the trade protection policy. appropriate statistical data in the process of analyzing and
+ Implementing a free trade policy is not synonymous with synthesizing information on applying and completing
weakening the role of the state in international trade
Vietnam's international trade policies; analyzing and
relations. In contrast, facilitating trade liberalization in the synthesizing international experience (United States, China)
domestic market to weaken or abolish trade protection in completing international trade policy summarizing the
policies in other countries provides the basis for domestic theory and practices of international trade policy in the
traders to easily access and to penetrate new developing context of US-China trade war; comparing context of
markets. Vietnam with the context of the countries mentioned above.
However, implementing a free trade policy has many typical The instruments of international trade policy of Vietnam are
disadvantages as follows: compared and contrasted within each of the historical
+ The domestic market is regulated mainly by the law of periods. This article is also using the Global Trade Analysis
freedom of competition so the economy is easy to fall into Project (GTAP) to assess the impact of the Early Harvest
crisis situation, unstability and fragility. Program (EHP) within the framework of the ASEAN-China
+ The domestic manufacturers are not strongly developed Free Trade Agreement to the Vietnamese economy.
enough, so they are in serious trouble in front of the attack
of foreign goods. 4. Research Results
Because of these disadvantages, even in today’s world, even Vietnam's economy has recently grown at a record rate
countries with strong economies such as the US and Japan thanks in part to foreign investment (FDI). In the first half
do not implement fully free trade policy for all industries, of 2018, Vietnam's growth was 7.08%, the highest level
but only industries strong enough to compete globally and since 2011. First-half FDI growth rate also reached 8.4%
for only a certain period of time. According to Do Duc Binh over the same period last year, a record of the past 10 years.
and Nguyen Thuong Lang (2012) [2], the policy of trade The shift of manufacturing from China to more stable
protection is the foreign trade policy of the countries in countries is a current trend. US-China investment tensions
order to use the measures to protect the domestic market in could also be an opportunity for Vietnam to attract more
the face of fierce competition of foreign imported goods. On investment from the US and is a boost for this shift to take
the other hand, the State also supports domestic traders to place faster. In the context that American businesses are
expand to foreign markets. increasingly struggling to do business in China, they will
likely turn to Vietnam as a change of business orientation.
Characteristics of trade protection policy are Moreover, imports from China to the United States will fall
+ The State uses tariff and non-tariff measures such as inevitably, and this means there will be a gap to be filled.
tariffs, domestic tax system, import and export licenses, Vietnam can completely fill that gap. Experts at Deutsche
quotas, technical measures, etc. to restrict imported goods. Bank Hong Kong predict that exports from Vietnam to the
+ The State supports domestic exporters by reducing or
US will increase by 1.7%. In addition, Vietnam's economic
exempting export tax, value-added tax, corporate income
growth is still maintained at a high level. Data from the
tax, domestic currency subsidies, export subsidies, so that
General Statistics Office show that from January 2018 to
they can easily be exported to expand to foreign markets.
June 2018, Vietnam's economic growth is at 7.08%. This is
Advantages of trade protection policy:
the growth momentum that has been very good foundation
+ Reduce the competitiveness of imported goods with
since 2017, the highest level since 2010.
domestically produced goods.
However, Vietnam's economy still has many risks to face.
+ Protect domestic manufacturers and enterprises; help them
The US and China are also the two largest export markets of
strengthen their strength in the domestic market.
Vietnam, China is the largest import market, so the trade
+ Help exporters increase their strength to compete in
tension between the two major economies certainly affects
foreign markets.
Vietnam. This is worrisome because Vietnam has struggled
in recent years to diversify trade to balance the trade deficit also be affected. The US taxation on Chinese goods will
with China. As mentioned, the trade deficit between the two lead to the risk of Chinese products flooding the Vietnamese
countries is worrying. In 2015, this figure was at USD 33 market. Vietnam has applied safeguard tax on steel and
billion and by 2017 it will remain at USD 22.7 billion. fertilizer. When China's textiles, furniture, leather and
There are concerns that China will use economic leverage to footwear are blocked from exporting to the US, China will
put pressure on Vietnam. However, this problem is much boost exports to Vietnam. Forecast of the export activities in
more complicated. When China is in a trade war with the the second half of the year 2018, besides favorable factors
US, the pressure from economic sanctions can hurt both for growth such as production and export of industrial
sides. It is difficult to imagine the case of China beginning goods, is expected to increase positively, exports also
to directly put pressure on Vietnam's economy. What China continue to face many difficulties and challenges. The risk
can do is to use its economic power to limit Vietnam's of Chinese goods will masquerade Vietnamese goods to be
commercial activities, as it did in March and July with exported to the US, will seriously affect Vietnam's export to
exploration on oil fields in Vietnam's exclusive economic the US. In fact, in recent years, products such as iron, steel,
zone. This is very troublesome when Vietnam is making cement in Vietnam have been repeatedly accused by the US
efforts to promote the maritime economy, an important of originating from China but borrowing Vietnamese brands
factor for Vietnam's economic success. With the import of to export to the US market to benefit on tax rates. Chinese
many goods from China, there is also concern that steel products are currently subject to very high taxes from
Vietnamese businesses will not be able to compete with the US, so instead of exporting to the US, China exports to
Chinese businesses. This may negatively affect the Vietnam and from Vietnam to the US. Therefore,
development of the domestic manufacturing industry. Vietnamese businesses need to be careful of possible
Chinese goods are often more competitive due to price and consequences.
diversity. Vietnamese manufacturers need to continue to
innovate and improve product competitiveness. In addition, 5.3 Keeping neutral economic position
disputes can arise between Vietnam, the US and China on Vietnam, with nearly 100 million consumers at the middle
the issue of product origin. China and Vietnam currently income level, is an attractive market and will be interested
have seven cross-border trade zones, part of China's Belt by many countries. Moreover, Vietnam is the gateway to the
and Road strategy. ASEAN market and CPTPP (Comprehensive Partnership
and Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement). Therefore, the
5. Research Result Discussion business environment in Vietnam, in the context of world
5.1 Two way impact trade war, is very fiercely competitive. Besides, Vietnam,
According to the Report of the Influence of US-China trade like other countries, will have to fight constantly to preserve
war recently announced by the National Center for Socio- and develop its export markets. In the immediate future, the
Economic Information and Forecasting (Ministry of direct impact of the war is the difficulties brought by the US
Planning and Investment), Vietnam can suffer from two- government to prevent the export of steel, aluminum and
way impacts of the trade war. Positive impact is the US catfish to this market. When the commercial war broke out
market opportunity when Chinese goods are limited. between the two superpowers, either party wanted to draw
However, this impact is not significant because Chinese Vietnam to its side. In order to avoid falling into a dilemma
products subject to taxation are not key products of and a danger to national sovereignty, it is best not to follow
Vietnam, and at the same time, FDI enterprises will have a any faction, to keep an economic neutral position. In order
greater advantage than domestic enterprises. Opportunities to implement the policy of economic neutrality, while
with the Chinese market are not much. On the contrary, maintaining the level of economic growth, Vietnam on the
Vietnam may be negatively affected by the global overall one hand must maximize the economic relations. The
growth rate being reduced, leading to lower demand for signing of the CPTPP agreement is a very good step that we
Vietnamese goods. Except for the EU, Vietnam's major need to go to supplement the markets that no longer exist.
trading partners are negatively affected. Vietnam's export On the other hand, we must prevent domination, in any form
growth rate will decrease by 0.3 percentage points in 2019 of a country or economic bloc, on the Vietnamese economy.
and decrease more sharply in the years 2021-2023. The first step will be to maximize multilateral economic and
Similarly, the growth rate of imports will decrease by 0.6%, trade relations through new-generation FTAs, and will not
this is an evidence that enterprises' production, especially in let any partner have a position to dominate the national
the FDI sector, will be affected by dependence on imported economy. This policy not only applies to demand side but
materials. The positive impact may be from FDI inflows, as also to supply side for the national economy. To implement
countries move from China to Vietnam. However, the this step, the Vietnamese government will amend the
calculation shows that this impact is not significant, even Competition Law in accordance with the spirit of the market
FDI into Vietnam may decrease. This may be due to the economy, ensure fair competition and prohibit the market
impact of trade impact on the production situation of the dominance of a business, a country or a economic block.
FDI sector, so there will be a slight restriction of investment
flows. 6. Conclusion and Recommendation
6.1 Conclusion
5.2 Risk of Chinese goods flushing into Vietnam The broader effects of trade war are likely to be felt in the
Vietnam needs to assess the situation more thoroughly and next few months. Vietnam's economy is deeply integrated
in many respects. The US not only imposed taxes on China into the world economy, so it is also naturally influenced by
but also applied trade defense measures to its allies. This global economic fluctuations. To minimize the negative
war will not only affect exports but also technology effects, Vietnam should continue to improve administrative
copyright, credit monetary policy, economic structure will procedures, complete the investment environment and
International Journal of Commerce and Management Research
6.2 Recommendation
(a) Not to be taken advantage of in export: The
consequences of the trade war are very hard to tell right
away. The trade war between the two countries will
certainly escalate. Especially, the US is aiming to prevent
the possibility of China to implement its future plan to
increase export of high-tech goods directly to the US until
2025. In bilateral trade relations, Vietnam is a country that
imported mostly from China. The US is also a major export
market of Vietnam. When two major markets are in conflict,
it is necessary to worry first about the negative aspects that
will occur. Currently, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry
and Trade has issued a warning about many beef products
from the US that can go through Vietnam to China. At that
time, Vietnam will be a means to avoid taxes. On the other
hand, China can also take advantage of Vietnam as a place
to attach Vietnamese brands to the goods to the US.
Vietnam is the 5th largest country in terms of trade surplus
to the US so if it becomes a processing place for export
goods to avoid taxes, then Vietnam is vulnerable to
economic sanctions. This is very important to avoid
countries taking advantage of Vietnam in their export
activities. Vietnamese steel has been taxed by the US and
Australia last year as the happened lesson to be learned.
(b) It is necessary to strictly control all import stages:
When the trade war between the US and China explodes, it
is possible to create a wave that makes Chinese goods
massively imported into Vietnam, after the Chinese Yuan is
depreciated and Chinese goods cannot be exported to the US
as much as before. If China wants to maintain its capacity
and growth, it must find new markets. One of the country's
potential markets may be Vietnam. The US-China trade war
will reduce the confidence of investors, along with reducing
investment abroad because it sees that the current market is
not safe and they have to search new markets to continue
investment and expansion in the future. This is a
consequence that Vietnam needs to consider and make the
best effort to avoid negative impacts on its own economy.
Steel companies importing steel from China and then
exporting to Vietnam to take advantage of trade agreements
that Vietnam has signed. Thereby, the US can also impose
very high taxes, up to 50% on Vietnam's steel exported to
the US that are originating from China. Vietnam needs to
strictly control the origin of exported goods to avoid a major
blow executed by the US. Because once the US attacks
China, it is hard to rule out the possibility that the US could
one day issue a similar tax attack to Vietnam. Besides,
Vietnamese enterprises need more efforts in improving
quality, competitiveness and reducing costs.
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Từ khóa: chính sách thương mại quốc tế, kinh tế Việt Nam, Chính sách thương mại quốc tế bao gồm hệ thống, quan
chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ - Trung điểm, chủ trương, nguyên tắc, công cụ và biện pháp phù hợp
mà nhà nước sử dụng để điều chỉnh hoạt động thương mại
quốc tế của mỗi quốc gia nhằm đạt được những mục
92 tiêu phát triển kinh tế - xã hội nhất định .
2,2 Sứ mệnh của chính sách thương mại quốc tế
International Journal of Commerce and Management Researc Chính sách thương mại quốc tế là một bộ phận của chính
h sách kinh tế - xã hội của nhà nước. Nó tác động mạnh mẽ
1. đến quá trình tái sản xuất, chuyển dịch cơ cấu kinh tế quốc
dân, đến quy mô và phương thức tham gia của mỗi quốc gia
vào phân công lao động quốc tế và thương mại quốc
Giới thiệu tế. Chính sách thương mại quốc tế có vai trò to lớn trong
việc khai thác triệt để lợi thế so sánh của nền kinh tế trong
Bước vào năm 2018, chính quyền của Mỹ Tổng thống nước, phát triển công nghiệp và dịch vụ trong nước với quy
Donald Trump áp đặt nhiều loại thuế trên hàng hóa nhập mô tối ưu, thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế và nâng cao hiệu
khẩu từ Trung Quốc như máy giặt hoặc một số sản phẩm quả các hoạt động kinh tế (Đinh Thị Liên, Trương Tiến Sĩ,
thép. Tình hình leo thang nhanh chóng khi Mỹ đề xuất áp Nguyễn Xuân Đào , 2014) [1]
từ Mỹ. Tổng thống Trump chính thức áp thuế 25% sách thương mại tự do là chính sách ngoại thương mà nhà
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25% trên 500 mặt hàng nhập khẩu từ Mỹ, bao gồm đậu ngoài nước, tạo điều kiện cho thương mại quốc tế phát triển
nành, thịt bò, thịt lợn, xe hơi và whisky. Các Mỹ tiếp tục trên cơ sở nguyên tắc tự do cạnh tranh.
phản ứng với USD 200 tỷ của hàng hóa từ Trung Quốc đề Các đặc điểm chính của chính sách thương mại tự do là:
xuất để áp đặt một khoản thuế 10%, nhiều khả năng để có + Nhà nước không sử dụng các công cụ để điều tiết xuất nhập
hiệu lực vào tháng năm 2018. (Nicholas Chapman khẩu.
(10/2018), LÀ CỦA VIỆT NAM VÀ MẤT GÌ TRÊN CỦA + Quá trình xuất nhập khẩu được tiến hành tự do.
TÔI - TRUNG THƯƠNG MẠI WAR , + Quy luật tự do cạnh tranh điều chỉnh hoạt động của sản
new.zing.vn) xuất, tài chính và thương mại trong nước.
Việt Nam là quốc gia hội nhập sâu rộng trong hệ thống 92
thương mại toàn cầu, có tính phụ thuộc lẫn nhau rất
cao. Người ta thường thấy rằng không có bên nào thắng
trong chiến tranh thương mại. Vì vậy, có một số bên International Journal of Commerce and Management Research
sẽ là bên chiến thắng và bên thua cuộc trên một quy mô nhất
định? Làm thế nào Việt Nam cần được chuẩn bị trong điều 92
kiện của chính sách thương mại quốc tế của mình trong bối
cảnh của cuộc chiến thương mại Mỹ-Trung Quốc? Những
câu hỏi đó được điều tra trong bài viết này International Journal of Commerce and Management Research
Ưu điểm của chính sách thương mại tự do là
99
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