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Front-Running, Smart Contracts, and Candle Auctions: Samuel@web3.foundation
Front-Running, Smart Contracts, and Candle Auctions: Samuel@web3.foundation
Front-Running, Smart Contracts, and Candle Auctions: Samuel@web3.foundation
Auctions*
Samuel Häfner Alistair Stewart
Web3 Foundation, Web3 Foundation
University of St. Gallen
samuel@web3.foundation stewart.al@gmail.com
Abstract
* We thank Georg Nöldeke, Marek Pycia, and Haoyuan Zeng for very helpful comments.
2 Related Literature
Historically, front-running refers to a (largely prohibited) trading practice in tradi-
tional financial markets that exploits the knowledge of large, upcoming trades (and
thus: price movements) by other market participants. Such behavior has long been
recognized to destabilize prices and impair liquidity (De Long et al., 1990; Brunnermeier
and Pedersen, 2005). Technical development, especially the advent of high-frequency
trading, has aggravated this problem as traders have started to compete on execution
time rather than prices (Budish et al., 2015).
At least since the advent of decentralized finance protocols, this kind of front-
running has also been recognized as a major issue in blockchain (financial) markets.
Here, front-running can be done by any market participant because the information
about upcoming trades is public information among network nodes and the network is
permissionless and pseudonymous. The technical details and the scope of such front-
running attacks are described, e.g, in Daian et al. (2019) and Eskandari et al. (2019).
Our analysis shows how certain issues with front-running can be mitigated through
design choices, at least when it comes to auctions on blockchains.
Technically, our model can be seen as a multi-stage variant of an auction in which
one bidder has a right of first refusal (Lee, 2008; Arozamena and Weinschelbaum,
2009; Burguet and Perry, 2009; Choi, 2009; Doran, 2018). The focus of these papers
is on agreements between the seller and one of the bidders that receives the right to
buy the good at the highest bid of her competitors. The main results are that in
symmetric environments such agreements typically come at the expense of the seller
but nevertheless increase the joint surplus of the seller and preferred buyer (Burguet
and Perry, 2009; Choi, 2009). This need not be the case in asymmetric settings, where
the seller might gain, too, because the right of first refusal levels the playing field
among the bidders and thus increases revenue (Lee, 2008; Doran, 2018). The focus of
our paper is different because it takes the right of first refusal as a given and asks for
a design that remedies some of its deficiencies.
Our paper also contributes to the literature on dynamic auctions, which primar-
3 Model
There is one indivisible good on auction that has no value to the seller. Time is discrete
and indexed by t = 1, 2, .... There are two players i = A, B. Each player has a valuation
vi ∈ [0, 1] for the good. The valuation of player A, vA , is common knowledge whereas
the valuation of player B, vB , is drawn from the uniform distribution on [0, 1] and only
privately known to player B. In every round t, the players are allowed to submit a
bid bit ≥ 0. If bidder i decides not to bid, then we set bit = ∅. Bids are submitted
sequentially, with bidder A moving first and bidder B moving second.
The auction has a random end date, T , which has finite support {1, 2, ..., T̄ }. The
auctioneer commits to a distribution over the end dates and after every round (i.e.,
after bidder B submitted her bid) he announces whether the auction ends in that round
or not. For notational convenience, we work with conditional ending probabilities. We
write pt for the commonly known probability that the auction ends in t provided it has
not ended before; i.e., pt = P r{T = t|T ≥ t}. These probabilities are collected in the
vector p = (p1 , p2 , ..., pT̄ ) with pT̄ = 1.
(a) βB∗ is optimal given βA∗ for every period t, every history h+
t , and every value vB .
(b) βA∗ optimal given βB∗ and beliefs F ∗ for every round t and every history ht .
(c) The beliefs F ∗ are consistent with Bayes rule whenever possible.
This definition of Perfect Bayes equilibrium is standard and follows Fudenberg and
Tirole (1991). Parts (a) and (b) require the strategies to be mutually optimal given
the beliefs and Part (c) requires the beliefs to be consistent. Consistency is required
whenever feasible; i.e., whenever the continuation strategies after a given history allow
to apply Bayes’ rule. This in particular means that beliefs have to be consistent after
any action by player A and after any on-path action by player B. After actions by
player B that are not to be expected from the continuation strategies we can choose
beliefs arbitrarily.
4.1 Equilibrium
For reasons to become clear shortly, our analysis focuses on equilibria that involve
player B choosing from a class of strategies we call match in the following.
Whenever the current highest bid is below her valuation and was not submitted by
herself, player B equalizes that bid. If her valuation equals the current highest bid then
she either equalizes the current highest bid or refrains from bidding. In any other case,
she either refrains from bidding or submits any feasible yet non-winning bid. Were
the auction to end in the respective period, then such a strategy would make her the
winner in the first case, leave her with no utility in the second case, and leave her as
the loser in the third case.
Whether or not such a strategy is optimal of course depends on the reaction of
player A, which in turn is determined by the inference that player A draws from the
behavior of player B. If player B plays match, then player A, upon submitting bA1 in
the first round, learns that vB ≥ bA1 whenever player B equalizes her bid in the first
round and she learns that vB < bA1 whenever player B does not bid. Because player
B’s strategy is pure, the posterior of player A remains uniform.
Consequently, we can completely describe the strategy of player A by a vector
a = (a1 , a2 ) meaning that she will submit a bid bA1 = a1 in the first round, bids
bA2 = a2 in the second round if player B equalizes her first-period bid, and refrains
from bidding in the second round if player B does not equalize her first-period bid
(because she knows player B’s valuation to lie below bA1 in that case). Then, we can
write the utility of player 2 in t = 2 conditional on the auction not having ended before
as
a2 − a1
U2 (a) = [vA − a2 ] ,
1 − a1
and the utility in round t = 1 as
10
vA − 2a2 + a1 = 0, (3)
and optimality of a1 in t = 1 requires [vA −2a1 ]−(1−p)[vA −a2 ] = 0. The two equalities
can be solved and the a’s can be written as functions of p,
1+p 2+p
a∗1 (p) = vA and a∗2 (p) = vA . (4)
3+p 3+p
Clearly, both a∗1 (p) and a∗2 (p) are increasing in p. That is, the higher the probability
of the first round being decisive the more aggressive player A bids. Intuitively, the
higher the probability of the first round being decisive the higher is the marginal
return from bidding in that round. Upon seeing player B equalize her bid, optimality
then also requires to bid more in the second round.
Next, we turn to player B. It is clear that in the last round, t = 2, player B
optimally matches the bid of player A whenever her valuation is higher and refrains
from bidding otherwise. In round t = 1, bidder B has two types of deviations that we
need to rule out. The first deviation is to refrain from bidding in t = 1 despite having
a higher valuation than a∗1 (p) and then equalizing a∗1 (p) in the second round. Doing
this yields a payoff of
(1 − p)[vB − a∗1 (p)].
On the other hand, matching the bid of player A in both periods whenever having a
higher valuation yields
Hence, matching the bid of player A in both periods is the (weakly) preferred action
for all vB ≥ a∗1 (p) if and only if
(1 − p) max{vB − a∗2 (p), 0} ≥ (1 − 2p)[vB − a∗1 (p)], ∀vB ∈ [a∗1 (p), 1]. (5)
It is clear that whenever p ≥ 1/2 then above inequality holds for all vB ≥ a∗1 (p).
Yet, for p < 1/2 above inequality is violated for all vB ∈ [a∗1 (p), a∗2 (p)]. This gives us
that matching the current highest bid when having a higher valuation is better than
refraining from bidding in t = 1 and rejoining in t = 2 for all vB if and only if p ≥ 1/2.
11
Assumption 1 (Off-Path Beliefs). Let {βA∗ , βB∗ } be part of a PBE, and let H̄t be the
set of histories that have zero probability under {βA∗ , βB∗ }. Pick any t ≥ 2 and ht ∈ H̄t .
(a) If sup hAt ≤ sup hBt , then player A believes that vB ∼ U [sup hBt , 1].
(b) If sup hAt > sup hBt , then player A believes that vB ∼ U [sup hBt , sup hAt ].
Part (a) implies that whenever player B strictly outbids the highest bid of player
A in a round, then the highest submitted bid of player B serves as the lower bound for
the (uniform) beliefs of player A in the following round. Part (b) is the counterpart to
(a) and states that, if player A should be the holder of the highest bid at the beginning
of a round, then she believes the value of player B to lie between her highest bid and
the highest bid of player B.
As the proof to our first result shows, Assumption 1 immediately implies that the
postulated strategy of player A in the following proposition is optimal for any feasible
history of play. In order to show existence, it then only remains to show that player B
never wants to submit another bid in t = 1 than that prescribed by match. This gives
the first part of the following statement:
where b̂B1 is the bid of player B as observed by player A; i.e., b̂B1 = bB1 if bB1 ≥ bA1
and b̂B1 = ∅ otherwise. For p > 1/2, expected utility of player A, expected welfare, and
expected revenue is the same in any other PBE that might exist.
Proving the second part of the statement requires some work and involves showing
that player B types never want to separate for the relevant valuations. The second part
12
An intuition for this result can be obtained from (5): Suppose player A refrains
from bidding whenever her first-round bid is not equalized. Then, it is a best response
for some types vB just above the first-round bid of player A to refrain from bidding
in t = 1. Taking this into account, it is then optimal for bidder A to raise her bid
whenever her first-period bid was sufficiently low. However, whenever bidder A raises
her bid after player B refrains from bidding, player B has a best response to which
not raising her bid is again a best response for player A. And this gives us the desired
contradiction.
Remark 1. The result does not imply that there are no Nash equilibria when p ∈
(0, 1/2). Indeed, there is a continuum of Nash equilibria in which player B (non-
credibly) threatens to equalize any bid of player A in t = 1 if the bid is below a certain
threshold. In Appendix C we explicitly construct and briefly discuss such an equilibrium.
Remark 3. The (Perfect Bayes) equilibrium strategies that we derived for one-sided
incomplete information in Proposition 1 are analogous to the equilibrium strategies
that would obtain in a corresponding game with two-sided incomplete information (i.e.,
player A’s valuation is also private information). The reason is as follows: whenever
player B plays match, then player A would not have an incentive not to reveal her type
in the first round. Conversely, playing match remains a best response for player B.
13
vA2
U ∗ (p) = ,
3+p
which decreases in p. That is, we can make bidder A better off by moving away from a
hard-closing rule with p = 1. In fact, bidder A’s utility is maximized under a uniform
ending probability, p = 1/2.
An analogous conclusion holds with respect to total revenue. Such is not a priori
clear, because increasing p makes bidder A more aggressive and thus revenue might be
expected to increase. To see why this is not the case, consider the following expression
for total revenue,
Expected revenue is equal to a∗1 (p) in case vB ≤ a∗1 (p) and equal to pa∗1 (p) + (1 − p)a∗2 (p)
in case vB > a∗1 (p). That is, revenue depends on a∗2 (p) only if the second round is
decisive. Since a∗1 (p) increases in p, the probability that vB > a∗1 (p) decreases in p.
That is, having a higher probability that the first round is decisive not only makes
bidders more aggressive, but it also reduces the weight on the higher bid in the second
round. This second effect always dominates, as the following result shows.
In conclusion, a random-closing rule both makes the auction more attractive for
the bidder being front-run and it yields more revenue than a hard-closing rule. In
particular, the expected utility of bidder A at p = 1 is vA2 /4 whereas it is 2vA2 /7 at
p = 1/2. In any case, it is lower than the expected utility in the truthful bidding
14
If the value of player B is below a∗1 (p) then player A wins, if the value is between a∗1 (p)
and a∗2 (p) then player B wins if and only if the first round was decisive, and if the value
is above a∗2 (p), then player B wins with certainty.
Proposition 4. Social welfare W ∗ (p) decreases in p. Moreover, for every p ∈ [1/2, 1],
there is v̄ ∈ (0, 1) such that W ∗ (p) ≥ vA for all vA ≤ v̄.
Ideally an auction allocates the good to the bidder with the higher valuation. This
will not necessarily happen in the candle auction with front-running, because bidder
A shades his bids in every round and thus, given a round is decisive, player B wins
whenever having a higher valuation than that round’s bid. That is, the front-running
player sometimes wins even though she has a lower valuation. Proposition 4 establishes
that this inefficiency is the worse the higher p. Again, this is not a foregone conclusion,
considering that bid shading on the part of bidder A decreases in p. Yet, as p increases,
so does the probability that the first round is decisive in which bid shading is higher.
The second part of the statement implies that whenever welfare is a sufficiently
strong criterion for the auctioneer and the valuation of player A is sufficiently low, then
an auction is preferred over a direct sale to player A. This result is quite intuitive: For
values of vA close to one, it is always better to give the good to player A, considering
that the expected value of player B is one half. For values of vA close to zero the
reverse is true.
5 Longer Auctions
We now turn to the analysis of the auction with an arbitrary length, T̄ ≥ 2. In view
of the results from Propositions 1 and 2, we focus on PBEs in which player B plays
15
5.1 Equilibrium
We aim to establish that the following candidate beliefs F ∗ are part of a PBE involving
bidder B to play match.
(b.i) If sup hAt ≤ sup hBt , then the belief of player A is given by
0 if x < sup hBt
x − sup h
Bt
Ft∗ (x; ht ) = if x ∈ [sup hBt , 1) (8)
1 − sup hBt
1 else.
(b.ii) If sup hAt > sup hBt , then the belief of player A is given by
0 if x < sup hBt
x − sup h
Bt
Ft∗ (x; ht ) = if x ∈ [sup hBt , sup hAt ) (9)
sup hAt − sup hBt
1 else.
Point (a) just reiterates that the prior is uniform. For any equilibrium in which
player B plays match, the beliefs F ∗ described under point (b) are consistent on the
equilibrium path of play and thus satisfy Point (c) in Definition 1. Moreover, the beliefs
comply with Assumption 1 on off-path beliefs that we have used in the last section.
Given these candidate beliefs, we first determine the best response of player A
to player B playing match. To do so, consider a round t ≥ 1 and suppose player
16
With probability Ft∗ (at ; ht ) player B will not equalize bAt = at in which case player A
wins for sure in one of the remaining rounds. If, on the other hand, player B equalizes
the bid of player A then the game continues, provided the auctioneer does not end it
in the current period.
The proof to the following statement uses the recursive definition of Ut (a) in (10)
together with Definition 3 of Ft∗ to provide a characterization of the optimal plan of
future actions a = (at , at+1 , ..., aT̄ ) in a round t and, thus, of the optimal strategy of
player B.
Lemma 1 (Best Response of Player A). Fix a round t and any history ht . Suppose
player B plays match in round t and thereafter. Let a = (at , at+1 , ..., aT̄ ) be recursively
defined by aτ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )aτ −1 with initial condition at−1 = min{vA , sup hBt } and
f = (ft , ..., fT̄ ) being part of the unique solution (f, Û ) ∈ [0, 1]2(T̄ −t+1) to
The main insight used in the proof is that, to determine the optimal course of future
1−at−1
actions for player A, it is possible to scale Ut (a) from (10) by a factor (vA −at−1 )2
, which
yields (11). Equality (12) is then the associated first-order condition, which is both
sufficient and necessary for optimality.
The characterization in (11)–(12) reveals that the optimal f only depends on the
17
Corollary 1 (Monotonicity of a in the initial condition). Take any t ∈ {t, ..., T̄ } and
let f = (ft , ..., fT̄ ) be part of the unique solution (f, Û ) to (11)–(12). Suppose the
vectors a = (at , at+1 , ..., aT̄ ) and a0 = (a0t , a0t+1 , ..., a0T̄ ) solve aτ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )aτ −1
and a0τ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )a0τ −1 with initial conditions at−1 and a0t−1 , respectively. If
at−1 > a0t−1 then aτ > a0τ for all τ = {t, t + 1, ..., T̄ }.
With Corollary 1 and Lemma 2 at hand, we can now turn to the optimal choice of
player B. To determine the best response of player B, observe that the utility Vt (a)
of player B with valuation vB in round t (conditional on the auction not having ended
before) when: (i) she plays match in the current and all future rounds and (ii) player
A plays according to a plan of actions a = (at , ..., aT̄ ) as outlined in Lemma 1, is
with VT̄ +1 (a) = 0. For the following arguments, we observe that because T̄ is finite,
the one-shot deviation principle applies (Fudenberg and Tirole, 1991). That is, it is
necessary and sufficient for match to be optimal if player B does not gain by deviating
in one single period.
Consider again Definition 2 of the class of match strategies. It is clear that player
B is indifferent between all the possible choices in the second and third case in (1).
Thus, as in the example, we have to consider two types of deviations. First, we consider
a deviation in which bidder B submits a bid that is higher than the bid of player A
in that round. If bidder B bids bBt > at in round t, then player A will change her
planned actions to some â = (ât+1 , ât+2 , ..., âT̄ ) satisfying âτ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )âτ −1 for
18
In view of (15), Corollary 1 implies that the difference in continuation utility, Vt+1 (a)−
Vt+1 (â), is weakly positive so that (16) always holds. That is, bidding above the bid
of bidder A is never profitable. The reason is that this would make player A just bid
more aggressively in future rounds, which is detrimental to B’s interests.
Hence, we need to rule out that there is a profitable deviation in which bidder B
refrains from bidding for a round and continues to play match afterward. In that case,
player A changes his plan of action once bidder B rejoins. Specifically, if player B
submits an empty bid in t and resumes with playing match in round t + 1, player A
will adapt his planned course of action in t + 2 to some plan â = (ât+2 , ât+3 , ..., âT̄ )
satisfying âτ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )âτ −1 for all τ ≥ t + 2 with initial condition ât+1 = at .
Consequently, such a deviation is not profitable if
The proof to the following lemma shows that under the condition given in the
statement the inequality in (17) always holds.
Then, playing match is a best reply to player A’s strategy βA∗ described in Lemma 1.
Proposition 5. Suppose (18) holds. Then, a PBE {βA∗ , βB∗ , F ∗ } exists in which bid-
der A plays βA∗ according to Lemma 1, bidder B’s strategy βB∗ is match as defined in
Definition 2, and the beliefs F ∗ satisfy Definition 3.
19
at
ft
0.30
0.4
0.25
0.3
0.20
0.2
0.15
0.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
t t
Figure 1: The left panel shows the values of the vector f = (f1 , ..., fT̄ ) as defined in
Lemma 1 for a uniform ending-time distribution and T̄ = 50. The right panel shows
the vector a = (a1 , ..., aT̄ ) where at = ft vA + (1 − ft )at−1 with a0 = 0 and vA = 0.8. The
graph suggests that, after an initial phase of exploring the value of bidder B, bidder A
bids relatively close to her valuation.
The first inequality in Condition (18) corresponds to the requirement that the un-
conditional ending probability, P r{T = t}, decreases in t. The second inequality states
that the hazard rate of the ending time probability distribution increases in t. These
two conditions play different roles for existence. The second inequality ensures that ft
increases in t (Lemma 2). The first inequality in (18), together with an increasing ft ,
can then be used to show that playing match is indeed a best response for player B
(cf. the proof to Lemma 3).
Figure 1 exemplarily shows a vector f (left panel) in conjunction with the cor-
responding vector a (right panel). In the plots, we used T̄ = 50, a uniform ending
probability distribution (i.e., Pr{T = t} = 1/T̄ for all t ≤ T̄ ), and vA = 0.8. If player
B keeps equalizing the bids of player A, then the behavior of player A shows an initial
exploration phase of player B’s value, in which she first bids low but then escalates
her bidding quickly if B remains in the auction. After that phase, the bids of player A
remain close to her valuation. As we show in Appendix B, this holds more generically.
In particular, for all t < T̄ we have at − at−1 > at+1 − at . Moreover, it is one of the
findings in Section 5.3 below that, as T̄ grows large, this exploration phase becomes
shorter and shorter relative to the phase in which bidder A bids close to her valuation.
While we cannot establish an equilibrium uniqueness result akin to that for the
two-period case, we can show that from the perspective of player A there is no PBE
that is worse. Formally,
20
We view this result as important because it establishes that the equilibrium delin-
eated in Proposition 5 and further analyzed below yields a lower bound on the utility
of the disadvantaged player in any possible PBE.
is the set of all hazard rates such that an equilibrium of the sort described in Proposition
5 exists.
We begin by discussing the utility of player A. As observed in the proof to Lemma
2, we can use (11) and (14) to express equilibrium utility of player A, U ∗ = Û1 vA2 , as
a function of the ending probabilities p as follows:
vA2 1
U∗ = (1 − f1 ), where 1 − ft = (19)
2 2 − (1 − pt )(1 − ft+1 )
with fT̄ = 1/2. Inspection of (19) then immediately yields the following result.
Proposition 7. The hazard rate p∗ ∈ P that maximizes the equilibrium utility of player
A, U ∗ , satisfies (1 − p∗t )p∗t+1 = p∗t for all t ∈ {1, ..., T̄ − 1}. This corresponds to the
uniform ending-time distribution, qt∗ = 1/T̄ for all t.
The expected revenue from round t onward (provided the auction has not ended before)
21
T̄
X T̄
X X
∗
R = at [1 − at ] qt + at (at − at−1 ) qt . (20)
t=1 t=1 τ ≥t
Lemma 4. For the uniform ending-time distribution, i.e., with qt = 1/T̄ and pt =
22
0.42
0.40
0.41
R * (p)
R * (p)
0.39 0.40
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.37 0.37
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1 1
√ ≤ ft ≤ √ , ∀t.
1+ T̄ − t + 1 3/4 + T̄ − t + 1
The proposition establishes that the payoff to player A approaches that from the
truthful equilibrium in a standard second-price auction as we let the number of periods
diverge to infinity. In the truthful equilibrium of the second-price auction player A bids
vA , thus winning with probability vA and paying the conditional expectation of player
B’s value, vA /2.
An analogous connection between the the candle auction and the second-price auc-
tion holds for revenue. In the truthful equilibrium of the second-price auction, revenue
is vA (1 − vA ) + vA2 /2: In case vA ≤ vB the resulting price is vA whereas in case vA > vB
the resulting price is the conditional expected value of player B, vA /2. As regards
23
T̄
X X
∗
R = E[a](1 − E[a]) + V ar(a) + at (at − at−1 ) qt .
t=1 τ ≥t
The next lemma describes how the terms in above expression behave as the number
of rounds, T̄ , grows large. For its proof, we rewrite the expressions in terms of f instead
of a and make use of the bounds from Lemma 4.
Points (a) and (b) reflect the fact that the bidding phase in which player A explores
the valuation of player B — discussed in Figure 1 above — becomes shorter and shorter
relative to the total number of rounds as T̄ grows large. More, when the number of
potentially decisive rounds is large, then bidder A bids close to his value most of the
time. In the limit, bidder A thus comes to win the object if and only if her valuation is
greater than the valuation of player B. Consequently, because her utility approaches
that from a second-price auction (Proposition 8), so must her expected payment, which
is the term in (c).
Points (a)–(c) from Lemma 5 give us that whenever the candle auction grows suf-
ficiently large, then revenue approaches that of a second-price auction without front-
running. Without further proof, we thus have
Proposition 10. In the limit T̄ → ∞, the candle auction with uniform ending-time
distribution allocates the good efficiently.
24
25
A Proofs
A.1 Proofs of Section 4
Proof of Proposition 1. To show existence, it remains to show (i) that it can never pay
player B to submit a bid bB1 that is strictly higher than bA1 and (ii) that bA2 as given
in the statement is optimal.
First, consider (ii). We know that bA2 is optimal in case bB1 = bA1 or bB1 = ∅. So
consider bB1 > bA1 . Then, by Assumption 1, player A believes that vB ∼ U [bB1 , 1].
Hence, the optimality condition (3) gives that if bB1 < vA , then bA2 must satisfy
vA − 2bA2 + bB1 = 0. If bB1 ≥ vA , then not submitting a bid (which would have to be
strictly greater than vA ) is clearly optimal. Together, we get bA2 as in the statement.
As regards (i), observe that bA2 increases in bB1 . So, bidding higher than bA1 not only
yields lower utility in t = 1 but also in t = 2 and can thus not be profitable for player
B.
Next, we show the claim regarding utility, welfare, and revenue for p > 1/2. To
start, observe that in the last period, t = 2, playing match is clearly uniquely optimal
for player B. We can proceed to show the following auxiliary lemma:
Lemma 6. Suppose p > 1/2. In any PBE, the first-round bid of player B with type
9
There are also existing models of shill bidding that treat it as part of the model (i.e., the bidders are
aware of the potential presence of a shill bidder). See for example Graham et al. (1990); Chakraborty
and Kosmopoulou (2004).
26
Proof of Lemma 6. Consider the last case in (21) first. If bA1 > vB , the only actions
that do not yield strictly negative utility are either to refrain from bidding or to submit
any feasible bid strictly below bA1 , as stated.
Next, consider the case bA1 < vB . In this case, bidder B’s bids that are both
feasible and distinguishable for player A are in [bA1 , ∞) ∪ {∅}. We first show that it
can never be in PBE that types vB ∈ [bA1 , vA ] separate by submitting non-empty bids.
Specifically,
Claim 1 : In no PBE can it be that there are two sets X, Y ⊂ [bA1 , 1] satisfying
inf X, inf Y < vA , and X ∩ Y = ∅ and two bids bids bX Y
B1 , bB1 ≥ bA1 such that, if B
bids bZB1 , then the (correct) belief of player A satisfies P r{vB ∈ Z} = 1 and P r{vB ∈
[inf Z, vA )} > 0 for Z ∈ {X, Y }.
Proof of Claim 1: Before we give the proof, observe that bX Y
B1 6= bB1 for otherwise no
inference is possible. Moreover, because we restrict attention to pure strategies the
posterior is again uniform.
Now, let bZA2 be A’s equilibrium response to bidder B bidding bZB1 for Z ∈ {X, Y }.
First, observe that, for both Z ∈ {X, Y }, it must hold that bZA2 > inf Z: Clearly, if
bZA2 ≤ inf Z then bidder A looses with certainty in t = 2 as player B then plays match.
So, player A can strictly gain by raising her bid in t = 2 to some bid equal to inf Z +
with 0 < < vA −inf Z, because she now wins at least against some types with positive
probability and still pays strictly less than vA (because inf X, inf Y < vA ).
To continue, without loss suppose bX Y X
A2 ≥ bA2 and pick vB ∈ X such that bA2 ≥ vB ≥
bYA2 , which exists by the observation in the last paragraph. Then, submitting a bid bX
B1
in t = 1 yields p[vB − bX Y Y
B1 ] whereas submitting bB1 yields at least p[vB − bB1 ] + (1 −
p)[vB − bYA2 ]. Consequently, optimality requires that
p[bYB1 − bX Y
B1 ] ≥ (1 − p)[vB − bA2 ].
27
Because all types vB ∈ [bA1 , vA ) must obtain at least zero utility, it thus follows
from Claim 1 that whenever such a type submits a non-empty bid it must be equal to
bA1 (if it were higher, then those types below the bid would obtain strictly negative
utility).
Claim 1 does not, however, rule out the possibility that some types vB ∈ [bA1 , vA )
want to pool with with types vB ∈
/ [bA1 , vA ) by submitting an empty bid. Consequently,
we have so far established that any type vB ∈ [bA1 , vA ) either submits bA1 or ∅. The
next claim establishes that bA1 is the strictly better choice than ∅ for all vB ∈ (bA1 , vA )
To finish the proof of Lemma 6 we observe that in case vB = bA1 submitting either
bA1 or ∅ yields utility of zero whereas any other higher bid yields negative utility.
For p > 1/2, Lemma 6 implies that any PBE involves bidder B types vB < vA
playing match. Yet, Lemma 6 does not rule out that there might be PBEs in which
some types (or subset of types) vB ≥ vA want to submit an empty bid or want to
separate by submitting a higher bid than player A. In the remainder of the proof we
28
So, because p > 1/2, it can never be optimal for bidder B with vB ≥ vA to submit an
empty bid in t = 1 and obtain an expected (1 − p)[vB − a∗1 (p)] from round t = 2.
Next, suppose there is a set of types X ⊆ [vA , 1] and a bid b̃B1 > a∗1 (p) such
that player A’s belief is P r{vB ∈ X} = 1 upon observing b̃B1 . If player A believes
P r{vB ≥ vA } = 1, then she can never obtain positive utility and is indifferent between
all bids below vA . So, in order that type vB ≥ vA finds it profitable to reveal himself
by submitting b̃B1 , player A must change her bid in t = 2 to some b̃A2 satisfying
p[vB − b̃B1 ] + (1 − p)[vB − b̃A2 ] ≥ p[vB − a∗1 (p)] + (1 − p)[vB − a∗2 (p)]. (22)
Because b̃B1 > a∗1 (p), above inequality gives b̃A2 < a∗2 (p).
Further, it must not be profitable for any vB < vA to pretend being of a type in X.
This gives
p[vB − b̃B1 ] + (1 − p) max{vB − b̃A2 , 0} ≤ p[vB − a∗1 (p)] + (1 − p) max{vB − a∗2 (p), 0}.
We know that vA > a∗2 (p). So, for vB close to vA , we must have
p[vB − b̃B1 ] + (1 − p)[vB − b̃A2 ] ≤ p[vB − a∗1 (p)] + (1 − p)[vB − a∗2 (p)]. (23)
The inequalities (22)–(23) together imply that, in any PBE in which some types
vB ≥ vA separate, the utility of any of these types cannot be different from their utility
in a PBE in which they pool with the types vB ∈ (a∗1 (p), vA ).
Further, the fact that the behavior of player A is (if ever) only different in case
vB ≥ vA (conditional on which her utility is zero in any equilibrium), implies that the
29
Proof of Claim 1 : By contradiction, suppose bpA2 > bA1 is part of the equilibrium and
consider any type vB ∈ [bA1 , bpA2 ). First, observe that equalizing the bid of player A in
t = 2 is optimal for player B if and only if her valuation is higher than that bid. Going
backward, the expected utility of player B when not bidding in period t = 1 is then
zero (as vB < bpA2 ). On the other hand, the utility from equalizing or raising bidder
A’s bid in t = 1 is p(vB − bB1 ), which is strictly positive as long as bB1 ∈ [bA1 , vB ) and
implies that all vB ∈ [bA1 , bpA2 ) optimally equalize the bid of player A in t = 1.
Consequently, whenever bidder B does not bid in t = 1 then bidder A knows that
bidder B’s valuation cannot be in [bA1 , bpA2 ). This implies that bidder A can do strictly
better by marginally lowering bpA2 in t = 2. Indeed, because bidder B with a value
vB ∈ [0, bA1 ) will never bid in the first round, the probability for player A of not being
outbid in the second round is at least bA1 , which by assumption is strictly above zero.
Because bidder B’s valuation cannot be in [bA1 , bpA2 ), marginally lowering bpA2 does not
change the probability of not being outbid in the second round. It does, however,
strictly increase the payoff when not being outbid. Q.E.D.
Claim 2 : In any PBE, there is v > bpA1 such that any bidder B type vB ∈ [0, v] refrains
from bidding in t = 1.
Proof of Claim 2 : Suppose the claim is false; i.e., there is a neighborhood around bA1
such that all valuations vB ≥ bA1 in that neighborhood do submit a bid bB1 ∈ [bA1 , vB ].
(Clearly, all vB < bA1 optimally refrain from bidding.) Let bm
A2 (bB1 ) be the bid of bidder
A in case bidder B submits a bid bB1 ≥ bA1 . More, let bpA2 be the bid of bidder A in
case bidder B refrains from bidding in t = 1. As established in the first claim above, it
30
Specifically, consider vB = bA1 + with > 0. From above inequality, it must hold
Because p < 1/2, the term on the right is strictly positive. The first term on the
left side is negative. Consequently, the second term on the left side must be strictly
positive. In other words, it must hold for all bB1 ∈ [bA1 , bA1 + ] that
bA1 ≤ bm
A2 (bB1 ) < bA1 + .
Because this must hold for all > 0, we obtain limbB1 ↓bA1 bm m
A2 (bB1 ) = bA2 (bA1 ) = bA1
and, hence, that bm
A2 (bB1 ) is weakly increasing in a neighborhood of bA1 . In view of
(24), monotonicity of bm
A2 (bB1 ) in turn implies that for all vB sufficiently close to bA1 it
is obtimal to submit a bid bB1 = bA1 .
Consequently, the beliefs of player A upon observing bB1 = bA1 are well defined.
In particular, bidder A must expect a period-two bid of bA2 = bA1 in case bB1 = bA1
to be overbid with certainty. Hence bm
A2 (bA1 ) = bA1 cannot be optimal, because bidder
A could marginally raise bA2 and thus strictly increase her payoff. This gives us a
contradiction and thus establishes that in any PBE there is v > bpA1 such that any
bidder B having valuation vB ∈ [0, v] refrains from bidding in t = 1. Q.E.D.
Proof of Claim 3 : If there is v > bpA1 such that all vB ∈ [0, v] refrain from bidding in
t = 1 then bidding bpA2 = bA1 is not optimal. To see this, note that conditional on being
below v, vB is uniform on [0, v]. That is, for bids bpA2 ∈ [bA1 , v], the payoff of player A
is proportional to
bpA2 (vA − bpA2 ),
which has a slope of vA − 2bpA2 . This strictly increases in bpA2 for bpA2 = bA1 < vA /2.
That is, player A could increase her payoff by marginally raising bpA2 . Q.E.D.
31
Now, observe
dR∗ (p)
which together with (4) gives that the sign of dp
is equal to the sign of
ρ(p) = p − 3 + vA (1 + p).
Clearly ρ(p) is linear in p. Together with the observations that ρ(0) = −3 + vA < 0
and that ρ(1) = −2 + 2vA ≤ 0 we thus have the claim.
Substituting for a∗1 (p) and a∗2 (p) from (4), as well as using
32
dW ∗ (p) 4 1 3 2 1
= pvA2 + (1 − p)vA
2
− vA
dp (3 + p)3 (3 + p)3 2 (3 + p)2
2
vA
=− [7 − 3p] < 0.
2(3 + p)3
To establish the second claim. We observe that for vA = 0 we have W ∗ (p) = 1/2 > vA .
On the other hand, for vA = 1 we it must hold W ∗ (p) < vA because player B has a
strictly positive probability to win. Moreover, W ∗ (p) is continuous in vA and, hence,
the intermediate value theorem applies.
1 − aτ −1
Ût ≡ Ut (a) , (25)
(vA − aτ −1 )2
we can work with the following reformulation of (10) instead,
Now, we assume (and later verify) that Ût ≤ 1. Then, the right side of (26) is
concave. This implies that f describes an optimal strategy if and only if
∂ Ût
= 1 − 2ft − 2(1 − ft )(1 − pt )Ût+1 = 0.
∂ft
33
Proof of Lemma 2. We first verify (14). To this end, we rearrange (12), to obtain
(1 − pt )Ût+1 in terms of ft ,
1
(1 − pt )Ût+1 = 1 − .
2(1 − ft )
1 − ft
Ût = (1 − ft )(ft + (1 − ft )(1 − pt )Ût+1 ) = . (27)
2
1
gt (f ) ≡ 1 − .
2 − (1 − pt )(1 − f )
Consider a fixed point ft∗ of this relation; i.e., the value ft∗ for which gt (ft∗ ) = ft∗ . We
have
(1 − pt )(1 − ft∗ )2 − 2(1 − ft∗ ) + 1 = 0
1 − pt
gt0 (f ) = .
(2 − (1 − pt )(1 − f ))2
34
Proof of Lemma 3. As observed in the text, we need to rule out that it is ever profitable
for bidder B with a valuation vB that is higher than the current highest bid of bidder
A, vB > at , to refrain from bidding for a round and then to continue playing match
thereafter.
First observe that in the last round t = T̄ it is clearly always better to equalize the
current highest bid by bidder A. So, consider round t = T̄ − 1. Recall
and that a one-shot deviation in the form of refraining from bidding once in round t
and then continuing to play match in t + 1 yields
Now, for t = T̄ − 1, we have Vt+2 (a) = 0 for any a and, hence, playing match is better
than refraining from bidding once and then rejoining by playing match if
which is equivalent to
35
which is equivalent to
From at+1 ≤ ât+2 together with ft+3 ≥ ft+2 and vA > at+1 , ât+2 , we obtain at+2 ≤ ât+3 .
Consequently, we may repeat the argument to obtain more generally that Vτ (a) ≥
(1 − pτ )[pτ +1 max{vB − aτ } + (1 − pτ +1 )Vτ +2 (â)] holds for all rounds τ ∈ {t, ..., T̄ − 2}
provided it also holds for τ = T̄ − 1. For τ = T̄ − 1, we have Vτ +2 (a) = 0 for all a and,
hence, the condition becomes (31), which we know to hold if (18) holds.
bA1 = a1
a , where n = min{n̂ ≥ t : b̂
n Bt−1 ∈ [supτ <t bAτ , an̂ )} if b̂Bt−1 =
6 ∅
bAt =
∅ if b̂Bt−1 = ∅,
36
T̄
X
UA = (vA − ak ) P r{T = t}.
t=k
We want to show that βB∗ maximizes −UA among all βB under which B bids at
most his valuation. In order to do so, we can invoke the one-shot deviation principle
(Fudenberg and Tirole, 1991) and show that the following two one-shot deviations
increase UA : At some t < k,
2. play bBt = ∅.
Consider (1) first. Let b̃B = (b̃Bt , b̃Bt+1 , ..., b̃B T̄ ) be the vector that A chooses after
such a deviation, and let k̃ be the lowest integer κ for which b̃Bκ > vB holds (setting
k = T̄ + 1 if no such integer exists). Clearly, k̃ ≤ k. If k̃ = T̄ + 1 we are done. For
k̃ ≤ T̄ , we have ak = bB k̂ . Then,
T̄
X T̄
X
(vA − bB k̃ ) P r{T = t} ≥ (vA − ak ) P r{T = t} = UA .
t=k̃ t=k
Next, consider (2). If player B refrains from bidding in period t, then A wins in period
t, which yields an additional
37
Since, ak > at and P r{T = k} > P r{T = t} under (18) we obtain that the utility of
player A is higher than UA under this deviation, too.
the lower bound for fτ follows from Lemma 2. To verify the upper bound, we first
observe that
1
ft ≤ √ ⇐⇒ 1/ft∗ − 1/ft ≤ 1/4.
3/4 + T̄ − t + 1
For t = T̄ , we have already shown that fT̄ = fT̄∗ = 1/2 and so the right inequality
above indeed holds. To establish that it holds for all t < T̄ , let us define
1 1
et = ∗
− .
ft ft
Now,
det −(1 − pt )
= −h ii2 ≥ 0.
det+1
h
(1 − pt ) + pt f ∗1 − et+1
t+1
38
We want to show that this holds for all T̄ ≥ 2 and all positive t ≤ T̄ −1. For readability,
we define x ≡ T̄ − t. This gives
√
(x + 1) x + 43
√ 1
x+1− ≤ √ .
4 x + x + 34
√ √ √
1 3 3
x+1− x+ x+ − [x + 1] x+ ≤0
4 4 4
√ √ √
1 1 3
⇐⇒ x+1− x+1+ x− − [x + 1] x+ ≤0
4 4 4
h√ √ i √ 1 √
1
⇐⇒ [x + 1] x + 1 − x − 1 + x+1− x− ≤0
4 4
√ 1 √
1 1
⇐⇒ [x + 1] √ √ −1 + x+1− x− ≤0
x+1+ x 4 4
√ √
√ √ 1 h√ √ i
1− x+1− x 1
⇐⇒ [x + 1] √ √ + x+1 x− x+1+ x + ≤0
x+1+ x 4 16
h √ √ i √ √
⇐⇒ [x + 1] 1 − x + 1 − x + (x + 1) x + x x + 1
1h √ √ i 1 h√ √ i
− x+1+2 x x+1+x + x+1+ x ≤0
4 16
x 3 √ 1√ √ 1 √
h √ i
⇐⇒ + − x+1− x x+1+ x+1+ x ≤0
2 √ 4 2 16
x h√ √ 3 15 √ 1√
i
⇐⇒ x− x+1 + − x+1+ x ≤ 0.
2 4 16 16
39
for all t ≥ 2. Now, take any α ∈ (0, 1) and consider an increasing sequence of final
dates T̄m → ∞ such that αT̄m is an integer for all m = 1, 2, .... We want to establish
that
lim aT̄n − aαT̄n = 0. (34)
m→∞
So, consider the term on the right side above involving the square brackets, which we
express as √
√ α T̄m
" #αT̄m " # T̄m
1 1
1− = 1− .
p p
1 + T̄m 1+ T̄m
p
Let x ≡ −(1 + T̄m )−1 . Then, we can write the term in the outer square brack-
1
ets of above expression as [1 + x]− x −1 , which approaches 1/e as x approaches zero.
Consequently, as T̄m grows large, our upper bound approaches
4vA p
(1 − α)T̄m exp −α T̄m .
7
40
Next, we establish that limT̄ →∞ aT̄ = vA . The limit in (34) implies that for any > 0
there is T̄ sufficiently large such that aT̄ − aT̄ −1 ≤ . Now, suppose it is an equilibrium
in which there is δ > 0 such that for all T̄ sufficiently large we have vA − aT̄ −1 ≥ δ.
Given that player B has equalized all player A bids before round t = T̄ , the problem
of player A in round t = T̄ is to choose
a − aT̄ −1
max [vA − a].
a>aT̄ −1 1 − aT̄ −1
Optimality gives a = (vA + aT̄ −1 )/2, implying a − aT̄ −1 = (vA − aT̄ −1 )/2 ≥ δ/2, which
contradicts the fact that aT̄ → aT̄ −1 as T̄ → ∞.
Next, pick some α ∈ (0, 1), a corresponding sequence T̄m , and write
αT̄m T̄m
1 X 1 X
E[a] = at + at .
T̄m t=1 T̄m
t=αT̄m +1
The first term of the two terms in above sum is bounded below by zero and bounded
above by αvA . In the limit T̄m → ∞, the second term above approaches (1 − α)vA . We
thus obtain bounds
(1 − α)vA ≤ lim E[a] ≤ vA .
T̄m →∞
Because this must hold for all α ∈ (0, 1) we thus obtain limT̄ →∞ E[a] = vA , giving us
claim (a) in the statement.
To continue, again pick some α ∈ (0, 1), a corresponding sequence T̄m , and write
αT̄m T̄m
1 X 1 X
V ar[a] = [at − E[a]]2 + [at − E[a]]2 .
T̄m t=1 T̄m
t=αT̄m +1
The first term ot the two terms in above sum is bounded below by zero and bounded
above by αvA2 . In the limit T̄m → ∞, the second term above approaches zero. We thus
obtain bounds
0 ≤ lim V ar[a] ≤ αvA2 .
T̄m →∞
41
implying that
T̄
X X
at (at − at−1 ) qt
t=1 τ ≥t
corresponds to the expected payment of player A. From the argument establishing (b)
above, it follows that, in the limit T̄ → ∞, player A wins with certainty whenever
vA > vB but loses in case vA < vB . That is, expected gross utility from the auction is
vA2 . Together with the fact that expected net utility is vA2 /2 in the limit T̄ → ∞ from
Proposition 8, we thus get (c).
Lemma 7. Fix a round t and any history ht . Suppose player B plays match in round
t and thereafter. Let f = (ft , ..., fT̄ ) be part of the unique solution to (11)–(12) and
suppose the vector a = (at , at+1 , ..., aT̄ ) solves aτ = fτ vA + (1 − fτ )aτ −1 with initial
condition at−1 = min{vA , sup hBt }. Then, the list a = {at , at+1 , ..., aT̄ } satisfies,
T −1
X τ̂
Y
[aτ −1 −aτ −2 ] = (1+pτ −1 )[aτ −aτ −1 ]+1{τ ≤T̄ −1} · pτ −1 [aτ̂ +1 − aτ̂ ] (1 − pτ̃ ) . (35)
τ̂ =τ τ̃ =τ
Proof of Lemma 7. In any round t, optimality requires ∂Uτ (a)/∂aτ̂ = 0 for all τ ≥ t.
Iterating (10) once and using the beliefs as given in Definition 3, we obtain
42
holds for all τ . We now derive (35) recursively. First, for τ = T̄ it holds pτ = 1 and
hence (37) gives
vA − aT̄ = aT̄ − aT̄ −1 . (38)
vA − aT −2 = aT −2 − aT −3
+ (1 − pT̄ −2 )[aT̄ −1 − aT̄ −2 ] + (1 − pT̄ −2 )(1 − pT̄ −1 )[aT̄ − aT̄ −1 ]. (40)
which is equivalent to
43
or
T −1
X τ̂
Y
[aτ −aτ −1 ] = [aτ −1 −aτ −2 ]−pτ −1 [aτ −aτ −1 ]−1{τ ≤T̄ −1} ·pτ −1 [aτ̂ +1 − aτ̂ ] (1 − pτ̃ ) .
τ̂ =τ τ̃ =τ
Now, it is obvious from (35) that as long as vA > at−1 we have aτ − aτ −1 > aτ +1 − aτ
for all τ ≥ t. This implies, as claimed at the end of Section 5.1, that bidder A increases
her bid by most in the first round and then reduces the increment over time. In a
sense, she decreases experimentation as the auction progresses.
b if bA1 ≥ vA /2 and vB ≥ vA
A1
∗
βB1 (h+
1) = bA1 if bA1 < vA /2
∅
else,
sup h+ if sup h+ ≤ v
∗ 2 2 B
βB2 (h+
2 ) =
∅ else.
Player B will equalize the bid of player A if her value is above that of player A and
player A submits a bid above half her value, vA /2, or if player A submits a bid below
vA /2. In any other case, player B will not submit any bid.
44
∗ vA
βA1 (h1 ) =
2
vA vA
∗
2(1−p)
if bB1 ≥ 2
βA2 (h2 ) =
∅ else.
Clearly, the strategy of player B is not optimal in the subgame after player A
submits bA1 ∈ (0, vA /2). Hence, the strategies βA∗ and βB∗ cannot be part of a Perfect
Bayes equilibrium. Nevertheless, we can establish the following claim.
Proposition 11. The strategies βA∗ and βB∗ constitute a Nash equilibrium.
Proof of Proposition 11. We first verify that the strategy of player B is a best response
to that of player A. In period t = 2, it is clearly always a best response to equalize
the current highest bid and play bB2 = sup h+
2 as long as the valuation vB is higher.
So, let’s look at period t = 1. Because the bid of player A in t = 2 only takes on two
values, depending on whether bidder B raises the current highest bid or not, player B
will rationally never bid more than the current highest bid in t = 1. Consequently, the
question for player B is to either match the current highest bid or to pass. Since, the
winning bids are non-decreasing over time, player B with vB < bA1 = vA /2 will always
pass. For, vB ≥ vA /2, matching the current highest bid gives
h vA i vA
p vB − + (1 − p) max vB − ,0 ,
2 2(1 − p)
Comparing above expression gives that, for all vB ∈ [vA /2, vA /(2(1 − p))], it is
always optimal to refrain from bidding. For values vB > vA /(2(1 − p)), matching the
currently highest bid is optimal if
h vA i vA
vB − ≥ ,
2 2
which clearly holds for all vB ≥ vA . Because vA /(2(1 − p)) < vA whenever p ∈ (0, 1/2),
45
vA
bA2 = < vA
2(1 − p)
is a best response. Next, suppose bB1 = ∅. In that case, player A knows that vA ∼
U [0, vA ] and, hence, her utility when submitting any feasible bid bA2 ∈ (vA /2, vA ] ∪ {∅}
is
bA2 (v − b ) if bA2 ∈ (vA /2, vA ]
vA A A2
.
vA if bA2 = ∅
4
Together, (42) and (43) imply that b∗A1 = vA /2 is the optimal choice.
46
vA2 v2
UA∗ (p) = p + (1 − p) A .
2 4
As we reach p = 1/2 from below, this utility is higher than the utility player A gets
in the PBE at p = 1/2. This is not surprising, because in t = 1 player B bids less often
than she does in the PBE; i.e., instead of equalizing the bid whenever having a higher
value than the bid by player A, player B only equalizes when having a higher valuation
than that of player A. This also implies that in t = 2, if player B did not equalize in
t = 1, the game presents itself to player A as a one-shot auction with front-running.
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