ANALYSIS OF UTTAR

PRADESH ELECTIONS IN 2012

& 2017

Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics

Saloni Som
MAECO2037
 Introduction
“Elections are the culture of Indian Society” and nothing can be better to analyse
than the heart of India “Uttar Pradesh”. Election to legislative assembly
constituencies of Uttar Pradesh is held 33 years and conducted by Election
commission of India whereas the election to local bodies of Uttar Pradesh is
conducted by the Election Commission of Uttar Pradesh Parliamentary
constituencies and Legislative assembly constituencies are also called "Lok
Sabha seats" and "Vidhan Sabha seats" respectively. There are 80 parliamentary
constituencies and 403 legislative assembly constituency in Uttar Pradesh. The
state has seen 17 Vidhan Sabha elections and 16 Lok Sabha elections since
independence. The Chief Minister of the state is elected by legislators of the
political party or coalition commanding an assembly majority, and serves a five-
year term with a provision of re-election. The Governor is the head of state, but
his or her role is largely ceremonial.
The most populous state of India saw two complete opposite dimensions of voters
in 2012 and 2017 legislative elections. From Samajwadi Party forming a
complete majority of government with 224 seat in 2012 to not even crossing the
60 mark in 2017, and BJP from just 47 seats in 2012 to a historic 325 mark in
2017, it can be observed that 2017 elections proved to be a complete game
changer.

Objective
The objective of this study is to understand the analysis of elections held in Uttar
Pradesh in 2012 and 2017, understand the reason behind the change in pattern of
voting trends if any, and the other significant changes in patterns from 2012 to
2017.
 Data Collection

The data has been collected by using the election commission datasets for two
years 2012 and 2017 in which the election held in Uttar Pradesh. The data
collected is secondary in nature.

Methodology

After collecting the data, it was analysed by using Microsoft Excel tools. The
descriptive statistic was applied to check the voting percentage of male and
female. The analysis is based on Uttar Pradesh elections in 2012 and 2017. The
data was prepared solely by studying the trends of Uttar Pradesh elections of the
year 2012, analysing the trends of Uttar Pradesh elections of the year 2017, and
thereby noticing the significant changes, the reasons behind the change in pattern,
and then end up comparing both.
 Analysis & Result
Total ELECTORS
Male Female Others Total Male% Female%
General 55320221 45035345 3142 100358708 55.12249 44.87438
SC 14936638 12196657 833 27134128 55.04742 44.94951
ST 0 0 0 0
Total 70256859 57232002 3975 127492836
Table 1. Total Electors in 2012
ELECTORS WHO VOTED
Male Female Others Postal Total Male% Female%
Others%
9.51E-
Gen 32567608 27214202 57 133227 59915094 54.35627 45.42128 05
5.01E-
SC 8657804 7286114 8 28568 15972494 54.20446 45.61663 05
ST 0 0 0 0 0
Total 41225412 34500316 65 161795 75887588
Table 1. Total Electors who voted in 2012

The 2012 elections in Uttar Pradesh welcomed the “Youngest Chief Minister”,
Mr. Akhilesh Yadav. The Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections, they
were held in seven phases beginning from 8 February to 3 March respectively,
and the results for the same were announced on 6 march, 2012. The chief minister
Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party, was defeated by none of that Mulayam
Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi party. The SP increased the vote share to the highest
29.15 per cent of the total number of votes polled, from 25.43 per cent, helping
the party to raise the tally from 97 from last time to a notable record of 224. The
party which was ruling in 2007, BSP witnessed a major drop by 126 seats and
could barely manage the vote share up to 25.91%.The 60%, the voters' turnout
was the notably highest ever in the state, making it to 14 percent points above
than previous assembly election. The increment in voters compared to previous
year (2007) was 45%, which clearly indicates the rise in turnout was not a
correction. The fact that turnout of women was higher than that of men and which
went up by 18 percent points compared to previous year. The total number of
contestants increased to 6839, a clear an increase of 12 percent points. UP has
almost 38.4 million Muslims,19.2% of its 200 million people, the most of almost
any state and third, obviously by proportion, after Assam and Kerala, despite of
that Muslims in Uttar Pradesh assembly came down to 5.9% from 17.1% in the
last election.Bhartiya Janta Party was over with the third with total 47 percent
points since 2007 in terms of seats, 15% of vote, a decline of number of seats,
which was undoubtedly best performance by four seats and 2% votes of any party
since the victory of Congress in 2007. Congress managed to win 269 of the total
of 425 seats, witnessing a marginal increase in the seats by 6 since undivided
Uttar Pradesh. Other parties in 2012 which participated were Janata Dal, Shiv
Sena, Republican Party of India, Forward Bloc Communist Party of India
Marxist-Leninist etc.

Chart1. Seats Won by Parties

 Total ELECTORS
Male Female Others Total Male% Female%
General 61460151 51477951 6105 112944207 54.41638 45.57821
SC 15582456 13135796 1187 28719439 54.25752 45.73834
ST 0 0 0 0
Total 77042607 64613747 7292 141663646
Table 3. Total Electors in 2017
ELECTORS WHO VOTED
Male Female Others Postal Total Male% Female% Others%
Gen 36321579 32533428 233 228252 69083492 52.57635 47.09291 0.000337
SC 9248488 8372695 44 50780 17672007 52.33411 47.37829 0.000249
ST 0 0 0 0 0
Total 45570067 40906123 277 279032 86755499
Table 4. Total Electors who voted in 2017

Keeping a close comparison of both the elections, Voter’s participation rose from
59.4% in 2012 to 61.4% in 2017, the increase in turnout was carried exclusively
by women, who outvoted men by almost 3%.In 2002, 17 parties won
representation in state Assembly and in 2017, candidates from only nine parties
won the seats. Also, between 2012 and 2017, the BJP scores an impressive gain
of 24.7% of vote share, which is more than the total vote share obtained by the
Bahujan Samaj Party (22.2%) or the Samajwadi Party (21.8%) in this election.
Before this, the party had peaked in 1993, with a 33% vote share, which had
declined. In case only the seats contested are taken into account, its vote share
rise up to 28.3%, 1% less than in 2012. Whereas, the Congress’s vote share in
seats is only 22%, which clearly indicate that the alliance did not work well. Or
we can say, the BJP’s 39.7% share got converted into 77% seats, while the
Samajwadi Party’s 28% vote share produced just 11% of total seats. Despite of
that the Bahujan Samaj Party’s vote share and regional performance improved
for sure, if we observe its performance in the constituencies on individual basis,
it lost more grounds than it gained. Samajwadi Party turned out to be more
competitive in the second phase, BJP soon claimed that it won election on the
platform of inclusive growth development, by reaching out to those sections that
do not get major representation in the society.
 Conclusion
To conclude ,2017 Legislative elections showed the emergence of a complete
new phase of Modern Indian society, the zeal with which people showed their
belief In the Modi Government was Historic and Uttar Pradesh saw a historic one
sided after almost 3 decades.The better part was that the winning party constituted
votes from almost all sections of the society. It gave a hint to all the political
parties of our country that how the democracy chops off the roots of those who
take it for Granted. The Major evolution observed this time was that the votes
were casted without any discrimination of caste and religion. Also in comparison
to previous elections the female voting ratio increased considerably as Modi
Government has taken Women empowerment as their primary concern. One of
the major reason for BJP winning the state election was the role played by the
Central government under the dynamic leadership of our honourable Prime
Minister Mr. Narendra Modi.

References:
i) U.P. Election data (2017), https://eci.gov.in/files/file/3471-uttar-pradesh-general-
legislative-election-2017/
ii) U.P. Election data (2012), https://eci.gov.in/files/file/3262-uttar-pradesh-2012/
iii) U.P. Assembly Election Result (2012), Uttar Pradesh assembly election results 2012 |
Uttar-Pradesh Election News - Times of India (indiatimes.com)
iv) Uttar Pradesh 2017: These 13 charts examine the BJP's surge in India's heartland (scroll.in)
v) Elections in Uttar Pradesh - Wikipedia