Combined Research Projects PDF

Study of the revival of Indian Economy
Post 2020 downturn
GOKHALE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS

AND ECONOMICS, PUNE
SURVEY REPORT
January, 2021
SALONI SOM
DURVA SHETYE
KOMAL PHUTANE
DEEPANSHU GUPTA
HRISHIKESH TEMBE
Objective
The objective of this study is to primarily understand experts and consumers opinion regarding the
revival process of Indian Economy post the covid-19 pandemic. The data and analysis interpreted
in this report will enable readers whether exports and market agents are optimistic with respect to
economic revival or they have pessimistic approach towards the revival process. On the basis of
certain parameters these aspects are analyzed.
Introduction
The current covid-19 pandemic affected the Indian economy adversely and now everyone is
eyeing at the revival process of Indian economy. India’s GDP contracted 23.9% in the Q1 itself.
Various agencies have projection of India’s GDP contraction for FY21. Asper the IMF, GDP is
likely to contract by 10.3%. Similarly World Bank estimates GDP is likely to contract by 9.6% for
FY21. Moody’s also downgraded India’s growth rate to 5.3% in 2020 due to downside risk of
covid-19. The disruption in supply chain has had a contagion effect on manufacturing, agriculture
and the pharmaceutical industry. Sectors like tourism, health care, hospitality faced the immediate
effects and those have been fragile state. The disrupted supply chain also resulted in inflation.
The Indian equity market has also been observed to be entered bear market territory. The economic
crisis has spread like the virus. The strict lockdown restriction and travel restriction resulted in
halting the tourism industry and further affecting adversely. Reporters believe that there have been
decline in the level of income, especially daily wage earners due to sluggish economic activities.
Literature Review
Covid-19, first witnessed in Wuhan, China on 31st December 2019, captured lives of more than
two lakhs people. India, a developing economy is certainly not immune to such unforeseen and
disastrous external shocks, hence the experience of pandemic has been disastrous even before the
point it reached its peak, resulting in dramatic economic collapse.
In particular the sectors such as healthcare, textile, agriculture, tourism and aviation witnessed
losses in crores due to pandemic, there has been a clear escalation in demand of crops such as
wheat, rice and vegetable affecting agriculture sector to another level. Many companies allowed
their employees to work remotely from the comfort of their homes to avoid exposure to infection.
Consumer electronic firms and smartphone makers ordered shutdown and consequently witnessed
revenue loss. There is a strict need to restore profit of businesses and similar jobs, resuming to
original state On the other hand, mental health of many was on stake sowing the seeds of fear and
insecurity in the lives of many.
India’s management of Covid-19 outbreak has been well appreciated by WHO, UN, IMF and
certain advanced economies such as US, UK, ITALY etc. The injury to exports and imports cannot
be ignored, which affected Indian central and state government economically, politically, socially
and institutionally as the lockdown was implemented.
The fact that the phase of outbreak of the virus has thrown the entire world into ambiguity, lead to
many consequences on mind-set of people, pushed several challenges on board cannot be
ignored.It can be concluded that Covid-19 has paid to all the hopes of transforming the economy
to a better one in near future, also its way too clear that in order to handle such unforeseen external
shocks, improving the capability of the economy is the need of the hour today. Therefore there is
a strict need to apply balms to old wounds, revive trust and help society to pace up once more.
Research methodology
The questionnaire was prepared with the objective to understand expert’s opinions and we
attempted to make the questions induced in nature so that with minimum questions we can gather
maximum information from the respondents. As the aim of the study is to understand the expert’s
opinion therefore, the target audience was restricted to working professionals and research
scholars. Individuals who are updated and read about Indian Economy day to day basis. The study
was not restricted to any specific location. The sample size used for the study was around 60% of
the total data which was collected via google form and every member of the group had to reach
out to the respondents.
Analysis
The intent is to analyse the effects of certain interdependent factors on pertinent economic
parameters. The critical factors that we intend to examine would be as follows-
1. Unemployment
2. Valuation of the rupee
3. Inflation
4. Economic Growth
5. Poverty
1. Unemployment: - The approach to curtailing Unemployment has been observed by placing focus
on two main priorities mainly increasing development expenditure and providing for further
employment. These, along with the focus on health sector are the top priorities of the policy makers
for the FY2021-22. The pandemic has resulted in a heightened amount of unemployment as a
result of labour lay-off. We expect the job market post the covid-19 pandemic to advance its pace
and provide livelihood to the ones seeking employment. More than half (64%) of the respondents
are optimistic of the Indian job market revival post covid-19.
Post Covid Job Market

70.00% 64.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00% 24.00% Total
20.00%
10.00% 6.00% 6.00%
0.00%
declining growing at a not sure picking up pace
declining rate
The paradigm of progression in the exhaustive commodity sector paves way for infrastructural
development and attracting positive investment leading to growth in opportunities. The opinions
casted by our industry professionals and research scholars reflect a stark contrast in the confidence
that the exhaustive commodity sector could bring in the form of revenue and good investment.
Surprisingly, while 36% of the respondent population believes in the positive impact that the
exhaustive commodity sector could bring, 42% of the respondents feel otherwise. This leads us to
cross referencing further parameters in order to gauge the direction and progress that this decision
could make.
Investment in exhaustive commodity

sector
6%
12% Agree
36%
Disagree
Neutral
42% 4% Strongly agree
Strongly disagree
The global pandemic has brought a degree of ambiguity in the remuneration that the employed
population would receive in exchange to the jobs they do. The analysis undertaken on the basis of
responses received reflect that the population of respondents, almost in equal measure, opine that
the work pay would increase, decrease and remain the same respectively. While the majority i.e.
32% believes in the salary increasing, 42% believe that the salary would decrease, while 26%
estimates that the pay scale would remain the same.
Future Salary Estimation
26%
42%
Decrease
Increase
32% Stay Same
While employment, development of infrastructure and catering to the health sector stands to have
utmost priority, there are concerns regarding whether the work environment and employment
opportunities would stand to improve post the times of the pandemic for the coming approximately
5 years.
2. Valuation of Rupee: - The monetary and fiscal authorities command immense control over the
stability and oscillation of legal tender. The changes executed by these bodies influence the
international and domestic stand of the rupee. 26% of our experts assert that the appreciation or
depreciation of the rupee would create no significant impact on the economic situation. Followed
by this, 22% of our respondents state that significantly appreciating the rupee would result in the
improvement in the economic situation in the country.
Movement of the rupee

fluctuated with a
downward trend
10% 12% fluctuated with an upward
trend
22% 14%
movement is immaterial
remains unchanged
16% 26%
significantly appreciated
significantly depreciated
Convertibility of the rupee calls for higher liquidity in the international market and allows for easy
financial transactions pertaining to export and import of goods and services. Almost half i.e. 48%
of the respondents wish to retain the partial convertibility of rupee. This shall facilitate in retaining
the valuation internationally and yet provide for easier financial transaction in the global market.
Convertibility of the rupee
convertibility would not

36%
matter
48%
full convertibility of the
rupee
16% retain partial convertibility
of the rupee
The Aatmanirbhar package pioneers in minimizing imports and providing opportunities to locals
for the development and growth in businesses. A substantial number of respondents i.e. 74% of
them believes that this package will not reduce our exports and devalue the rupee.
Effect of Aatmanirbhar package on exports and the rupee
Yes 22.00%
No 74.00%
Total
It depends on how the policy is designed 2.00%
Devaluation is immaterial 2.00%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%
The UNCTAD’s export value index is our reported for most economies in the world where Export
values are the current value of exports converted to U.S. dollars and expressed as a percentage of
the average for the base period. A significant 68% of our research professionals and corporate
leaders believe that the Aatmnirbhar package will have a positive effect on our export value index
and hence, result in an increase in the export as well.
Effect of Aatmanirbhar package on

Export Value Index
8%
24% Negative
Neutral
68%
Positive
Our respondents positively hold the opinion that the rupee shall be well placed in the global market,
in the coming future. There is a significant amount of confidence rested in the jurisdiction of
Aatmnirbhar package.
3. Inflation: - The increase in the circulation of money leads to inflation. The Reserve Bank of India
hold direct control over the supply of money in the economy. In these unprecedented times of
economic turmoil, 40% of the population asserts that we need to lower interest rate, as a result
increase in the real income of man in order to spur growth.
RBI action for economic revival
keep interest rates

8% unchanged
18%
10% lower interest rates to spur
growth
24% progressively lower interest

rates
40%
progressively raise interest
rates
raise interest rates to
control inflation
The Government of India holds the authority to monitor fiscal discipline. When asked to the
respondents, 40% of them believe in the ideology of tax reduction in order to work towards
economic revival. 32% of the respondents want the government to provide subsidies to the people
until economic revival takes place.
Government should do to revive the economy

2.00%
Welfare to bridge the gap 2.00%
2.00%
Spend much more on public infrastructure and skill… 2.00%
6.00%
provide subsidies till economy revives 32.00%
40.00%
Large scale public spending 2.00% Total
2.00%
Increase capital and infrastructure spending 2.00%
2.00%
Ensure that a person does not get double benefits. A… 2.00%
2.00%
Depends on individual sector's reqirment 2.00%
0.00% 5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%
The respondents as a whole, wish the government and the RBI to be lenient and subsequently
further financially and socially supportive of its citizens.
4. Economic growth: - The advancement in the national income along with social, cultural and
economic improvement of the people, among others encompasses economic growth. Information
technology, Pharmaceutical sector and the banking and financial services sector is expected to see
a highest GDP contribution in 2021-22.
Sector wise growth

30.00%
25.17%
25.00%
20.00% 17.22% 17.22%
15.00% 10.60%
9.27%
10.00% 5.96% 6.62% 5.96%
5.00% 1.99%
0.00% Total
The estimation and forecasting of the national income growth rate provides analytical
understanding of the country’s growth trend. The pandemic has obstructed the growth in India’s
national income and require measures to mitigate he losses. 64% of the respondents compute the
expected GDP growth rate in the coming 5 years to be within the range of 5-10% growth rate.
Expected GDP Growth Rate in 5

years
30%
0 to 5
64% 6% 10+
5 to 10
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends
in manufacturing. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19
industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. About 46% of the respondents claim
that the Purchasing Manager Index of India would be greater than 50.
Purchasing Manager Index of India

50.00% 46.00%
45.00%
40.00% 38.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
Total
20.00% 16.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
50 above 50 below 50
As a whole, the respondents are reasonably positive in their expectation of experiencing economic
growth in India, in the future.
5. Poverty: - The policy decision undertaken by economist significantly have an effect on various
economic indicators and parameters. Policymakers need to devote special attention in GDP
growth, improving development expenditure, employment measures and the health sector.
Priorities of Policy Makers

social security 7.21%
Skill development program 0.90%
inflation control 5.41%
increasing development expenditure while -… 8.11%
health 18.02%
Total
GDP growth 13.51%
fiscal discipline 5.41%
employment 38.74%
defence infrastructure 2.70%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%

With the pandemic resulting in unprecedented times and loss of livelihood, the opinions of the
respondents were taken with regards to saving money for future pandemics. 40% of the
respondents asserts that the situation of the corona virus pandemic will result in people saving for
unfortunate events, such as more pandemics in the future.
Immediate money and future

saving
8%
Agree
20% 40% Disagree
Neutral
14%
18% Strongly agree
Strongly disagree
The Universal Basic Income is a mechanism adopted by the government in order to provide for
the basic livelihood of the citizens of India. While the pandemic has resulted in mass employee
layoff, 56% of our corporate and research experts are of the opinion that the UBI should be raised.
Universal Basic Income
does not matter
22% 16%
4% lowered
2%
raised
56% suspended
There should not be any

Universal Basic Income
As future savings are expected to increase and individuals wants the UBI to be raised in order to
deal with these difficult time, these favourable situations should lead to poverty alleviation in the
post pandemic Indian economy.
Conclusion
Evaluating the progress of the Indian economy and its revival constitutes of the amalgamation of
multitudinal parameters that are evaluated and computed with the intention of generating a certain
outcome or observing a particular trend that could positively or negatively influence the Indian
economy, especially in the times of the Novel Corona Virus pandemic. It becomes increasingly
important to forecast the trajectory of our economy.
The economy is expected to advance in its operation with regards to the job sector. As the pay
scale is expected to increase, unemployment is expected to be tackled positively and curbed
eventually in the post pandemic situation. There are specifically positive expectancies about the
performance and effect of Aatmnirbhar package on positively valuating the rupee. The RBI, as
released in its report, adopts the strategy of choosing growth in the economy, even at the cost of
higher inflation. In the year 2020, the government has been lenient and postponing the final
submission dates for EMI payments, GST Income Tax Return, among others and is lending support
to the citizens in these challenging times. Economic growth in the country is estimated and
analysed to be positive and promising, in the future. With the joint efforts of the monetary and
fiscal authorities, poverty alleviation is expected to a certain degree.
The Indian economy is in the midst of the global pandemic and is working hard towards abridging
the current facilities offered and the prospects that need to be developed. Therefore, the study of
India’s economic future is of utmost importance to the learned in the society and the common man.
References: -
1. Das & Patnaik (2020), The Impact of Covid 19 in Indian Economy – An Empirical Study,
(IJEET)
2. Goyal (2020), Post Covid-19: recovering and sustaining India’s growth, (Indian Economic
Review)
3. Dr. D. Paul Dhinakaran & Kesavan (2020), Exports and Imports Stagnation in India During
Covid-19 – A Review, (GIS Business)
4. Debata, Patnaik & Mishra (2020), COVID-19 pandemic! Its impact on people, economy, and
environment, (Wiley)
PROJECT SUBMISSION
MACROECONOMICS 1
AN EVALUATION OF THE MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN

INDIA AND BHUTAN FROM 2015 TO 2019
GUIDE NAME: MS PRANITA PATHAK
SUBMITTED BY :
KOMAL PHUTANE (MAECO2033)
SALONI SOM (MAECO2037)
GOKHALE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

OBJECTIVE
The objective of this study is to provide a contemporary analysis of the two

developing countries, India and Bhutan. The data and analysis interpreted in
this report will enable readers to track the progress of both the countries with
respect to the indicators which are evaluated in a comparative framework.
This shall provide the trend analysis of the countries. The study lays focus on
these countries during a period of 2015 to 2019.
Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune

INTRODUCTION
Bhutan’s economy is based on hydro-power, forestry and agriculture which

provide livelihood for the majority of the population. The Indian economy
encompasses village farming, traditional agriculture as well as modern
industries and services.
Though Bhutan is physically small with a limited scope, it has proved itself to
be one of the most peaceful economies which is free of threats from terrorism,
militancy etc. Indeed, Bhutanese students enroll almost 4 000 Bhutanese
students at Indian Universities at all times; many of them still have Indian
government bursaries.
This study will explore the trend wise comparative analysis of both the
countries taking macroeconomic parameters such as GNI per capita, GDP,
trade, inflation, Human Development Index, Gender Parity Index, Consumer
Price Index, forest area, population growth etc, into consideration.
The bilateral relations between India and Bhutan were formed when the Indo-
Bhutan Treaty was signed. India with a GDP of $2.7 T, was the 7th largest
economy while Bhutan was the 172th with a GDP of $2.4 B. The purchasing
power parity conversion factor was noted to be 21.81 for Bhutan and 18.1 for
India and the GNI per capita was noted to be $3 k for Bhutan and $2 k for
India respectively. In India, the literacy rate was noted to be 74.4% as of 2018
whereas in Bhutan, it is 66.6% marked in 2017. In India, 8.5% of adults are
unemployed in 2017, the number is 3.25% for Bhutan. Bhutan accounts for 40%
of all its revenues and 25% of its Gross Domestic Product, from its energy
export to India. Planned attempts to establish Bhutan started at the beginning
of the 1960s. In 1961 Bhutan's First Five Year Plan began. India has also
extended funding to the Bhutan's Five Year Plan. India remains the main
donor to Bhutan's socio-economic growth. The two countries exchange a
vibrant cultural heritage. Bilateral relations between India and Bhutan are
marked by frequent high-level political exchanges, which help to reinforce
bilateral ties. If we look at the past 20 years, Bhutan has been a recipient of aid
not only from India but also for other countries. This eventually helped
Bhutan in achieving its economic goals as the country managed to be called a
developing from a least developed one.

LITERATURE REVIEW
India and Bhutan share an almost five decade old golden bond. This has led to
not only changes in Government of India, but also in layering out the larger
geopolitical or social circumstances. These countries share a long standing
cordial relationship, which has its roots in goodwill and mutual understanding.
This was further accompanied by a tag known as, ‘Treaty of Friendship’ signed
between both countries in 1949, which was updated in 2007. The original
treaty stated that Bhutan was to be guided by India in its foreign policy.
According to amendment none of the countries will let anyone to use their
territories for any activity.
The year 2018 marks 50 years of friendship between the two countries. The
initiation of this bond is credited to the efforts of Indian Prime Minister
Jawahar Lal Nehru and his Majesty Jigme Dorji Wangchuck, who is known as
the third king of Bhutan.
Bhutan is aligned with India via trade, and links related to the monetary sector.
It signed a memorandum with India and Bangladesh in July 2017. It was agreed
upon, to construct a hydro-power plant in order to export electricity to
Bangladesh. The cooperation in hydro-power projects is one of the most
highlighted examples of a win-win situation between the two. Bhutan was
always pivotal in India’s major foreign policies, Neighbourhood First Policy
and Act East Policy,

LITERATURE REVIEW
The total trade increased by about fifty times during 2000-2019. The bulk of
Bhutan’s trade is engaged with India. Though Bhutan’s share in India’s total
exports to the world has been fluctuating. Nevertheless, India stands as
Bhutan’s largest trading partner and the most prominent source of its imports.
Cross border trade of electricity between India and Bhutan is taking place
under the Bilateral Power Trade Agreement, which was signed between both
the countries in 2006.
India stands as Bhutan’s leading development partner. As the First Five Year
Plan of Bhutan was launched in 1961, India was present to financially support
Bhutan’s FYPs and allotted Rs 4500 crore to Bhutan’s 12th FYP. While India
and Bhutan share a remarkable bond, issues such as the state of relations with
China prove to be a matter of concern for both countries.
The year 2014 marks PM Narendra Modi, who led BJP Government being into
power put major emphasis was on India’s neighbourhood and its relations with
Bhutan, which have been tension free since then. It has been observed that
over the last 40 years, the interactions of Bhutan have significantly increased at
bilateral and multilateral levels. We observe the phase of Bhutan’s transition to
democracy. From 1998 onwards, India performed as a steadfast support
system for Bhutan in various ways to achieve economic stability.
Currently, India stands as Bhutan’s major partner in achieving its aim of

development goals. It should be noted that India has also benefited from this
relationship with Bhutan. India was able to satisfy its growing demand for
electricity, somehow through the energy imports from none other than
Bhutan. Ever since the two countries marked this special bond, it proved that it
is possible to pursue a journey filled with mutual benefit and peace, even if the
atmosphere is marked with terrorism, conflict and economic disparity.

RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
The study intended to draw an overall macroeconomic comparison between

the countries of Bhutan and India. The indicators namely economic indicators,
social indicators, environmental indicators, global indicators, and population
indicators were chosen in order to compare these countries. The time period
of analysis was from 2015 to 2019. The study was a secondary database survey
study and the information was procured from the World Bank website. The
sources of information used from the World bank data have been provided
links to, in the references section.

ANALYSIS
The intent is to analyse the various macroeconomic indicators that can be

utilised to map the progress of India and Bhutan from 2015-2019.
The various indicators used for the analysis are as follows:

1. Economic indicators
2. Social indicators
3. Environmental indicators
4. Global indicators
5. Population indicators

ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
India and Bhutan experience a positive Gross National Income per capita for
the years 2015 to 2019. India experiences an approximate 28% increase in the
GNI per capita starting from $5400 to $ 6290 for the time period. Bhutan has a
27% increase starting from $8820 to $11230. Bhutan's GNI per capita is higher
by $4940 in 2019, than in India. Overall, Bhutan fairs better than India as it
starts off with the higher GNI value in 2015, although it it has a similar rate of
growth.
India experiences a steady decrease in the GDP growth over the years from
2015 to 2019. The highest amount of GDP growth was experienced in 2016
which was 8.3 %, and the lowest amount of GDP growth was experienced in
2019 which was 4.2 %. The difference between the GDP growth of these two
years has been 4.1 %. The GDP of Bhutan has followed of fluctuating pathway.
The highest GDP growth rate in Bhutan was in the year 2016 which was 8.1 %
and the lowest was in the year 2018 which was 3.1 %. This makes a difference of
exactly 5% in the the growth of GDP in the country over these five years. The
average GDP growth rate of India has been 6.7% Whereas the average GDP
growth rate in Bhutan has been 5.6%.

ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
The inflation in India has experienced a study increase from 2015 to 2018 and
experienced a sudden fall in the inflation in 2019. There was a steady increase
in the inflation rate in Bhutan from 2015 to 2017, after which there was a steep
reduction in the inflation in the year 2018. The inflation rate reduced even
more in 2019. While India reached the peak of its inflation rate in 2018,
Bhutan simultaneously experienced its steepest fall in the inflation rate in the
same year. The average inflation rate in India is 3.4 % while it is 3.18% in
Bhutan.
India and Bhutan are running in negative net profits implying that the exports
are lesser than the imports for both the countries. The net profits in India
reduced from 2015-2018 and experienced a hike in 2019. The net profits in
Bhutan have been steadily increasing during the five-year period. The
reduction of the net profits in India have been on an average 2.74%. While the
net profits reduced by 24.74% in Bhutan, the reduction in net profits in India is
extremely low when compared to that of Bhutan.

SOCIAL
INDICATORS
There is a steady increase in the consumer price index for the countries of
India and Bhutan in the time period of 2015 to 2019. While the average value
of the CPI is 162.5 in India, it is 157.1 in Bhutan. The dispersion of the CPI
values for the time period for both the countries is significantly close to that of
the previous year.
The percentage of unemployed people comprising of the total labour force

have been a very study number in both the countries for the time period
considered. The percentage of unemployed people are lower in Bhutan than
India. On an average, 5.42% of the total labour force comprises of unemployed
people in India while It is 2.36% in Bhutan.

SOCIAL
INDICATORS
The final consumption expenditure in terms of USD has been compared for
both the countries in the given time period. There is a steady increase on the
consumption expenditure for India and Bhutan.
The average final consumption expenditure for India has been
1,778,742,524,398.26 while Bhutan experiences it at 1,733,004,855.75.
The human development index of India and Bhutan have been very similar
during the given time period. The HDI in 2015 for India was 0.624 while it was
0.628 in Bhutan. The HDI for India and Bhutan in 2019 was 0.645 and 0.654
respectively. The increase in the HDI value has been very slow for both the
countries. While Bhutan experienced an increase in the HDI value, the HDI for
India reduced in 2016 and increased throughout the remnant years. The
average HDI value for India is 0.636 while it is 0.643 for Bhutan.

GLOBAL
INDICATORS
There was a steady trend in the FDI in in India where the FDI value was
approximately 44 million dollars in 2015 which grew to 50 million dollars in
2019. While the FDI investment experiencea a fluctuation for Bhutan during
the time period, a significant reduction in the the FDI investment value was
experienced in the year 2017. This was the only negative FDI investment value
during the period.

ENVIRONMENTAL
INDICATORS
The absolute amount of forest area in India is higher than the forest area in
Bhutan. This is so due to the large territorial expansion of India when
compared to that of Bhutan. The average forest area in India for the period is
712,276 while it is 27,181.5 in Bhutan. As of 2019, the total forest cover in India
is 712,249 Sq km (71.22 million hectares), which is 21.67% of the total
geographical area. The forest area in terms of percentage of the total land area
of Bhutan was 72.48% as of 2016.
The carbon dioxide damage is significantly higher in India as compared to

Bhutan. The average carbon dioxide damage over the years in India was
$81456530941 while it is $43932734.2 in Bhutan. This can also be explained by
the amount of land dedicated to forest area which in turn acts as a major
catalyst in mitigating the damage caused on account of the carbon dioxide
release.

POPULATION
INDICATORS
The percentage of population growth has been decreasing for India and
Bhutan. The graph of the decrease of percentage of population growth in India
has been steeper than Bhutan, which implies that the Indian population has
been growing at a lesser rate than that in Bhutan. While the population
percentage in India in 2015 was 1.12%, it reduced to 1.02% in 2019. The same
was 1.22% and 1.15% for the years 2015 and 2019 respectively, for the country of
Bhutan. The average population growth has been 1.06% in India and 1.19% in
Bhutan.
The percentage population growth in urban areas in India has been steadier
than that in Bhutan. The Urban population growth in India was 2.323% in 2015
and was 2.306% in 2019. The same was 3.2 % in 2015 for Bhutan and 2.9% in
2019.

CONCLUSION
Bhutan is a small economy in terms of its geography and economic

development. It is a closed economy situated in the eastern Himalayas
between India and of course People’s Republic of China. If we observe the data
of 2017 Census, Bhutan has been a shelter to a population of around 7,35,000
people which was ruled by a popular monarchy till 2008. Soon, the monarchy
decided to transform Bhutan to a democratic state in order to ensure that
people could actually feel voice to run their future. Integral to the Bhutanese
ethics as well as its philosophy stands their belief in Vajrayana Buddhism
which has laid a pivot for the country’s progress for many years around. At the
heart of this philosophy there are some key components of compassion and
respect for everyone as well as for the government to look after their citizens
.This small yet developing economy is driven by three key parameters known
as hydroelectric power, tourism and agriculture. Bhutan tends to enjoy trade
connections with India at large scale, which has been a constant supporter over
the years.
Significant progress in the level of real per capita GDP ranging from about
US$400 in 1980 to US$2,800 in 2016 was observed, and now Bhutan is nearing
middle-income status. Over the years, a constant discussion over the Gross
National Happiness has been there in the case of Bhutan, which is referred to
as a major indicator of its development. In 1972, the fourth king of Bhutan,
Jigme Singye Wangchuck declared that “Gross national happiness is more
important than Gross domestic product”. As GDP growth in Bhutan is highly
dependent on investment made by the government, majorly in the
hydropower and construction sector, which is related with the former. It was
noted that India’s GDP was steadily falling from 2015 to 2019, the current
slowdown in India is the third slowdown since 1996 and is noted to be the
longest since the last 23 years.

CONCLUSION
The 2019 slowdown of Indian economy has been credited by the

amalgamation of both internal and external factors as synchronised the global
slowdown, demonetisation, poor implementation of GST, declining
investment in construction and infrastructure. The slowdown has pushed
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream of making India a five trillion
economy by 4 years. The reasons for the previous longest slowdown were
noted to be high inflation fuelled by rising crude prices, inflation had
remained persistent despite RBI hiking the repo rate. Bhutan’s FDI was noted
to be persistently negative in 2017 as the share of FDI in Bhutan's GDP tends to
remain comparatively low if compared to the other developing countries. If
we look at UNCTAD 2020 World Investment Report, the total stock was
marked at USD 141 million during 2019. As it turned negative in 2017, FDI
inflows we observed to recover in 2018 and reached USD 6 million and even
increased to about USD 7 million in 2019. Despite this recent rise in FDI
inflows, Bhutan still remains to be an Asian country who still stands at the
position of attracting the least FDI, maybe due to its small size. Also the real
effective exchange rate has been stable in Bhutan, as it can be noted that
nominal exchange rate is depreciating since 2018, since the time Bhutanese
ngultrum is pegged to Indian rupee. The main reason for depreciation is due
to the Indian rupee as India accounts for about 80 percent of the country’s
trade, the price developments of these countries are noted to be parallel.
External debts are observed to remain high but have not increased so much.
India’s positive economic outlook can be framed by the fact that the most
recent India Macro Poverty Outlook in October 2016, has estimated that real
GDP growth between the years 2016 and 2018 is estimated to be 7.6% to 7.8%,
almost the similar growth performance in 2014 as well as 2015 provided the
strong economic relationship between Bhutan and India, the positive
economic outlook is quite beneficial for Bhutan. Also, the framework for
continued poverty reduction is noted to be positive. With such an accelerated
growth, the poverty headcount rate is noted to be 1.9% in 2015 and 0.9% in
2018.

CONCLUSION
We observed that there has to be no impact of an increase in economic growth

on unemployment reduction, both in the short as well as long run. This
implies that the Okun’s Law failed to hold true in the case of Bhutan. However,
studies confirm an inverse relation between inflation and unemployment in
the short run, which implies that Phillip’s Curve stands to hold true for Bhutan
in the short run. As inflation rises, unemployment falls or we can interpret this
as employment rise, the prices of goods and services also rise.

REFERENCES
Reference links
1. Bhutan indicators
https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&country=BTN
2. Indian indicators
https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&country=BTN
3. Overview of Bhutan
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bhutan/overview
4. Overview of India
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/overview
5. Indicator classification
https://databank.worldbank.org/views/reports/reportwidget.aspx?
Report_Name=CountryProfile&Id=b450fd57&tbar=y&dd=y&inf=n&zm=n&co
untry=BTN
6. Bhutan Report- HDI and GDI

http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/BTN.pdf
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/IND.pdf

Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics
ANALYSIS OF FII DATA

Basic Econometrics Assignment MA Economics Group-1
Deepanshu Gupta MAECO2008

Akash Kolte MAECO2023
Durva Shetye MAECO2009
Aditi Joshi MAECO2014
Saloni Som MAECO2037
Komal Phutane MAECO2033
Hrishikesh Tembe MAECO2045
Pranjal Sharma MAECO2039
Introduction
Financial inclusion, in its broadest sense, refers to universal access to a wide range of affordable
financial services. It is noticed that the entire structure of publicly funded digital infrastructures
has the potential to enable a wide range of financial services while also deepening financial
inclusion and development. As a result of mobile phones and the internet, a new generation of
financial services has evolved. If a lack of faith in financial institutions is a key barrier to account
ownership, good product design and strong consumer protection rules may be able to help. In
addition, mobile phone ownership is high, and among those who do not have access to a banking
institution account who mentioned distance as a hindrance.
Globally, 9% of individuals, or 13% of account holders, established their first account to receive
private-sector income, government payments, or payments for the sale of agricultural products. In
some developing economies, simply receiving digital payments for public sector wages has
resulted in significant increases in account ownership. If governments digitize transfer payments,
women and poorer persons may benefit disproportionately. Account ownership has also increased
as a result of digital payments of public sector pensions. Making agricultural payments via mobile
phones is projected to be particularly beneficial for unbanked farmers living in distant rural
locations, many of whom have access to a phone. Sending money to friends or relatives in another
part of the country is a popular habit that provides opportunities to grow account ownership. In
developing nations, 260 million adults without a bank account send and receive domestic
remittances in cash or through an over-the-counter service like Western Union.
Although having a bank account is the first step toward financial inclusion, the benefits come from
actively using that account to save, manage risk, and send and receive payments. Many
governments are already utilizing digital payment systems to pay public employees and issue
social benefits and pensions. When it comes to utilizing digital payrolls, businesses often lag
behind governments. Around 300 million account holders work in the private sector and are paid
in cash around the world, with 90 million in India. At least 145 million persons with bank accounts
get all of their self-employment payments in cash. It has been discovered that 1 billion persons
with bank accounts still pay their power bills in cash. People in certain countries have the option
of paying utility bills online, however, some opt-out due to exorbitant fees, a lack of proof of
payment, or other issues. For utility payments, digital technology could be a viable replacement
1|Page
for cash. Despite having a bank account and a mobile phone, roughly 910 million adults in the
world pay their utility bills in cash.
Financially, marginalized sectors of the population are largely ignored in our culture. Their
livelihoods are rarely monetized, and they are mostly excluded from financial inclusion.
Furthermore, they are unaware of the banking services offered, on the other hand, banking
personnel is unaware of the demands and capacities of the individuals in this section. As a result,
banks are unable to bring people into the financial inclusion umbrella. As a result, achieving
financial inclusion necessitates widespread financial literacy and awareness among the poor and
marginalized.
Literature Review
Financial inclusion is to channelize the excluded section of society in mainstream financial

activities. The prevalence of financial inclusion in urban India is much better than the rural India.
Often people living in rural India rely on informal institutions for their credit requirement. In rural
India 86% of total household belongs to the marginal landholders. This households are mainly
vulnerable to informal lending & Indebtedness. Only few 20 % of rural household have access to
the formal credit. Among this almost 80 % of Non-Cultivators don’t have access of formal credit.
(P. Gupta, B. Singh 2013)
Here technology can rescue us from financial exclusion trap. Technology can connect the financial
institutions to the excluded sections of society. In India with 1.3 billion people, only 200 million
people have access to bank account & almost 760 million are users of smartphone which is 60%
of total population. Mobile phone technology will help to include this leftover people in financial
activity net. Commercial and even public bank don’t find any profit to open banks in rural India.
Whereas technology reduces this gap by avoiding infrastructure cost and increase banks business.
(S. Bansal, 2014)
CBS (Core Banking Solutions) can provide us feasible, effective & quality services. CBS includes
various financial products like NEFT, RTGS, Mobile Banking, Internet Banking, ATM Services
etc. Aadhar linked bank account will help to keep track on tractions of fraud customers. Aadhar
2|Page
linking facility also can help in providing government transfer payments like DBT services,
Scholarships, Pensions & Social security nets. (Alka Singh, 2017)
Mobile technology is good medium to increase financial inclusion till last left people from
financial net. According to the census survey data 2011, the rate of use of banking services had
increased to 59% in 2011 from 35 % in 2001.The Aadhar linking & CBS (Core banking Services)
had enhanced the speed of penetration of banking services in masses at large. (Financial Inclusion
Report, 2015)
According to the national RBI recommendation financial inclusion should be measured through
three dimensions. First, the access of banking account via branches, ATMs and CBS (Core
Banking Services). Second, the rate of use of bank account (active bank accounts).Third is the
quality of service measurement mechanism (Grievance Redressal, service quality etc.).
Additionally periodical survey of current situation of financial inclusion in country can also help
to increase financial inclusion. Still there is several impediments to financial inclusion (such as
issues faced while using digital services, knowledge of customer rights and attitude of service
provider, etc.). (National Financial Inclusion Strategy, 2020)
Women with better financial facilities will be more capable of taking vital decisions of their lives
like education, career opportunities, marriage, whether to use contraception, whether to leave
abusive relationship and so on. The gender gap has persisted despite the growth in the number of
people with the access of financial services and the gap is larger among poor people. The most
explored and analyzed financial products by women are credit and microfinance. Studies have
analyzed gendered preferences in risk, liquidity, privacy depending on their position within the
institutions of states, markets, society. These study show that women are more risk-averse men.
This implies the cautious approach of women towards financial institutions and relying upon them.
Gender asset gap is also one the most emphasized constraint in the studies of financial inclusion.
Historically, there is lack of documentation with respect to the assets owned by women which can
be used as the collateral for loans. (ICRW, 2017)
Kendall et. All (2010) reported that despite of around 6.2 billion bank accounts in the world,
approximately more than one per adult, 3.2 accounts per adult were found in developed countries
and only 0.9 account per adult in the developing countries. Despite such a large no. of bank
accounts roughly 19% of the developed country adults don’t have a bank account and closer to
3|Page
72% adults in developing countries don’t have bank accounts. It was predicted that mobile phones
will be most intensively used in poor countries where infrastructure like paved roads, post offices,
taxis, public phones, rail transport are lacking. The combination of Mobile telephony and IT allows
servicing banks to improve efficiency through multiple inter-connected channels.
On the basis of the financial inclusion plans of many countries, India is creating their own models
to tackle the problems of financial inclusion. In South Africa, they’ve used a No-frill banking
system wherein there are very negligible minimum deposits and certain no. of transactions also
free. This helped to create more than 6 million new such accounts. However, only 58% of these
accounts are active. In Brazil, they used agents in the name of Bank Correspondents to facilitate
branchless banking system. Eventually 150,000 of such correspondents helped in opening more
than 120 million new bank accounts. Kenya has demonstrated best use of technology to fight the
problems of Financial Inclusion. Banking services were provided through mobile phone
companies. 40% of Kenya’s population has used this system. All of these models were based on
the RBI and GOI policies. These policies include no-frill accounts, simplified KYC norms,
General Purpose Credit card facility, establishment of Financial Stability and Development
Council, UID (Unique Identity) number for smart card etc. (ICTMS-2013)
Research Methodology
The data used for the analysis of financial inclusion in India is FII report 2013 & 2018 with the
sample sizes of 45,024 and 48,027 respectively. The data is quantitative and qualitative in nature.
The report attempts to establish relationship among various variables by using parametric and non-
parametric statistical techniques. The inferences and interpretation have been constructed by
formulating hypothesis.
Key Findings of FII Report 2018
 Financial inclusion in India increased from 78% of adults in 2017 to 81% in 2018. This
change was driven by increases in registered users of banks and non-bank financial
institutions (NBFIs).
 The banks provided access to financial services for 82% of adults in India, in 2018.
4|Page
 Financial inclusion increased to 81% of adults in 2018 compared to previous years. The
percentage of active bank users grew significantly from previous years to 2018. In contrast,
the proportion of active mobile money users decreased to less than 1% in 2018. Instead of
mobile money, United Payments Interface (UPI) mobile wallets, such as PayTM and
BHIM, are satisfying demand for digital payments
 Brand awareness of payments banks grew from 8% to 22% of adults from previous to 2018,
with PayTM in the lead. FII data showed that the top reason why people did not register
with a payments bank was a greater preference for cash. Despite brand awareness, few
survey respondents understood the specific benefits of a payments bank account.
 Across all phone types, women own phones at a much lower rate than men. In 2018, there
was only a 3 percentage-point gender gap in digital inclusion, but a gap of 31 percentage
points in mobile phone ownership. Women are thus far less likely to be equipped with the
technology necessary to use digital payments unassisted via a mobile phone.
 Digital payments or transfers were used by 27% of women, versus 35% of men
Government-to person (G2P) payments were the most frequently reported activity. Among
women who used digital payments via a bank account, a higher proportion (60%) received
G2P payments compared to men (47%). Uptake of digital transfers, bill pay, and merchant
payments was greater among men, with a gender gap of 9, 8, and 10 percentage points,
respectively.
 Among those who did not own a mobile phone, 49% reported their main reason was they
do not have enough money to buy a phone, and a smaller, yet substantial, proportion (46%)
reported a lack of need to own one themselves. Despite the large gender gap in phone
ownership, there was little difference between men and women on reasons for not owning
a phone.
 Three percent of the population reported having ever used a mobile phone for any type of
payment, and five percent reported using an Aadhar or Rupay card. While mobile phone
ownership and internet access are rising, consumers in India are still new to conducting
transactions via phones. Many adults still lack the basic skills needed to conduct digital
transactions, such as the ability to text and financial literacy. A greater effort to market
5|Page
services such as Aadhar Pay and the Aadhar-enabled Payment System (AePS) could
encourage greater use of digital payments.
 The large majority of beneficiaries of the largest government schemes used Aadhar, but
less than half were able to authenticate their Aadhar number digitally. Aadhar fingerprint
authentication was attempted by 62% of adults at least once in the previous 12 months, but
only 16% said the fingerprint scan always succeeded.
 From Previous years to 2018, the proportion of male and female nonusers decreased and
the gender gap closed after 2016. In 2018, there was a gender difference of 1 percentage
point or less across all segments of the customer journey, except for advanced users. Male
and female active basic users have increased the most strongly over the last five years, but
the female proportion of the group grew faster between Previous and 2018.
 Nearly seven in 10 adults (68%) live in rural areas, and the rural share of the population in
every customer journey segment was greater than the urban share. Rural residents account
for most of the growth in the active basic and advanced user groups since 2014. In 2018,
urbanites were, however, still overrepresented in the advanced user group relative to their
overall share of the population.
 In 2018, the FII survey measured the use of store credit as a method of borrowing – which
is common in India and is used widely by adults across segmentation groups and
demographics. Borrowing through informal means is more popular than formal methods,
across the groups – 26% of advanced users borrowed with an informal institution versus
20% who borrowed through a formal institution.
 Despite lacking a formal financial account, over a quarter (28%) of nonusers have saved
and more than 1 in 5 (22%) have borrowed.
 The most common reason for borrowing in 2018 was to pay for emergency expenses. Less
than 40% of both the included and excluded groups reported having an emergency fund.
 Overall, the share of advanced bank users decreased while the share of NBFI users
increased in 2018 compared to the previous year.
6|Page
ANALYSIS OF HYPOTHESIS
Year 2018
Problem Statement 1:
In this sample dataset, respondents were asked their literacy level and whether the household have
a bank account or not. These variables are explained as follows:
 FN1.2. Do you have a bank account that is registered in your name?

(i) Yes- 1
(ii) No - 2
 DG4. What is your highest level of education?
Code Description
1 Illiterate – no formal education
2 Literate – no formal education
3 Below primary schooling (Standard 4th)
4 Primary schooling (Standard 5th)
5 Middle (Standards 6-8th)
6 Matriculation/secondary (Standard 10th)
7 Higher secondary (Standard 12th)
8 Non-technical diploma or certificate not equal to degree
9 Technical diploma or certificate not equal to degree
10 Graduate
11 Post graduate and above
96 Other
-2 DK [DO NOT READ]
The Chi-Square Test of Independence can only compare categorical variables. It cannot make
comparisons between continuous variables or between categorical and continuous variables.
Additionally, the Chi-Square Test of Independence only assesses associations between categorical
variables, and cannot provide any inferences about causation. Now we need to perform chi 2 test
7|Page
(also known as Pearson chi2) to test the association between level of education and having a bank
account.
Chi2 Test (For independence)

To test whether there is any relationship between level of education and having a bank account,
we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through Chi 2 test for level of significance (a) =
0.05.
H0: There is no statistical relationship between the level of education and having a bank account.
H1: There is statistical relationship between level of education and having a bank account.
Contingency table:
| FN1_2
DG4 | 1 2 | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
-2 | 34 27 | 61
1 | 10,249 3,379 | 13,628
2 | 1,329 609 | 1,938
3 | 2,216 783 | 2,999
4 | 2,973 925 | 3,898
5 | 6,659 2,118 | 8,777
6 | 5,847 1,636 | 7,483
7 | 4,325 937 | 5,262
8 | 540 98 | 638
9 | 280 52 | 332
10 | 2,096 289 | 2,385
11 | 530 64 | 594
96 | 17 15 | 32
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 37,095 10,932 | 48,027
The above contingency table shows the level of education (DG4) in row and having a bank account
(FN1_2) in column. This table is showing the combination of different levels of education with
respect to having a bank account or not. The total sample in this case is 48,027.
8|Page
Chi 2 statistics
| FN1_2
DG4 | 1 2 | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
-2 | 34 27 | 61
1 | 10,249 3,379 | 13,628
2 | 1,329 609 | 1,938
3 | 2,216 783 | 2,999
4 | 2,973 925 | 3,898
5 | 6,659 2,118 | 8,777
6 | 5,847 1,636 | 7,483
7 | 4,325 937 | 5,262
8 | 540 98 | 638
9 | 280 52 | 332
10 | 2,096 289 | 2,385
11 | 530 64 | 594
96 | 17 15 | 32
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 37,095 10,932 | 48,027
Pearson chi2(12) = 480.4868 Pr = 0.000
In the above test statistics, the degree of freedom is 12, the value of Pearson chi 2 is 480.4868 and
the p-value is 0.000. In this case p-value < 0.05 which means that there is a very small probability
of the observed data under the null hypothesis of no relationship. So, we reject the null hypothesis.
This concludes that there is a significant relationship between the level of education and having a
bank account.
Problem Statement 2
From the following data set, we have attempted to understand the proportion of people having
access to mobile phones in rural and urban areas. In order to do the same, respondents were asked
to reveal their accessibility of mobile phones and the area they belong to. The certain variables
that were considered are as follows:
 AA7: Town class of respondent (Urban/Rural)

 MT2: Access to mobile phone
(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
Now we need to perform the two sample proportion test to check whether there is any significant
difference between rural and urban people having mobile access or not.
9|Page
Proportion test (Two sample variable)
To test whether there is any difference between the proportion of having mobile phone in rural and
urban area, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion test at 95%
confidence Interval.
H0: The proportion of people having mobile phone in rural and urban area is same. (βu = βr)
H1: The proportion of people having mobile phone in rural and urban area. (βu ≠ βr)
Contingency Table
| Mobile
Area | 1 2 | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Rural | 18,423 14,576 | 32,999
Urban | 10,216 4,812 | 15,028
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 28,639 19,388 | 48,027
The above contingency table is showing the different combination of mobile phones with respect
to rural and urban area. In urban area, proportion of people having mobile phone is 67.9% while
the proportion of people using mobile phone in rural area is 55.8%, which shows that in urban
area, majority of people are using mobile phone than rural area.
Proportion test statistics

Two-sample test of proportions Rural: Number of obs = 32999
Urban: Number of obs = 15028
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable | Mean Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Rural | .4417104 .0027337 .4363524 .4470683
Urban | .3202023 .0038058 .312743 .3276616
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .1215081 .0046859 .1123239 .1306922
| under Ho: .0048284 25.17 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
diff = prop(rural) - prop(urban) z = 25.1654
Ho: diff = 0
Ha: diff < 0 Ha: diff != 0 Ha: diff > 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
From the above test statistics, we can clearly infer that the z- statistics value is 25.1654 and the p-
value is 0.000. The z-critical value is 1.96. So, in this case there is zcalculated. > zcritical, and the p-
10 | P a g e
value < 0.05. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis. This concludes that the proportion of
people having mobile phone in rural and urban areas are not same.
Problem Statement 3
In this sample dataset, respondents were asked about their official identification card/s and whether
they have a bank account registered on their name. These variables are explained as follows:
● FN1.2. Do you have a bank account that is registered in your name?

(i) Yes- 1
(ii) No - 2
● DG5. Please tell me whether or not you have the following documents.
DG5.1 Aadhar Card 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.2. PAN Card 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.3. Passport 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.5. Driver’s License 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.6. School issued ID 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.7. Voter card 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.8. Ration card 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.9. Govt. Employee ID 1=YES 2=NO
DG5.10. MNREGA job card 1=YES 2=NO
variables, and cannot provide any inferences about causation.
11 | P a g e
Identificarion Card & Bank Account
Access
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
Identification Card Yes
15000
10000 Identification Card No
5000
0
Yes No
Bank Account
Chi2 Test
We want to test the association between having at least one kind of official identification card
from the above mentioned list and owning a bank account. For this purpose we will be
employing a Pearson’s Chi2 test of independence.
H0: There is no relationship between having an official identification card and owning a bank
account; they are independent.
H1: There is a relationship between having an official identification card and owning a bank
account; they are not independent.
12 | P a g e
Chi 2 Test for Independence
Bank Account
ID Total
NO YES
NO 260 61 321
81.00 19.00 100.00
2.38 0.16 0.67
YES 10,672 37,034 47,706
22.37 77.63 100.00
97.62 99.84 99.33
Total 10,932 37,095 48,027
22.76 77.24 100.00
100.00 100.00 100.00
Pearson chi2( 1) = 623.3571 Pr = 0.000
The above contingency table displays the identification cards in the rows and owning a bank
account in the columns. The total sample size is 48,027.
In the above test of independence, the Pearson chi2 statistic is 623.3571 with a level of
significance (α): 0.05 and degrees of freedom = 1. The calculated p-value is 0.000, which we can
say, is significantly smaller than (α) = 0.05. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis, and
safely conclude that the two variables are not independent. However, the chi2 test only tests
association and does not imply causality.
As we can see from the above contingency table, the odds of having a bank account while having
at least one kind of official identification card (607.11) are far greater than the odds of having a
bank account while not having any kind of official identification (0.001). 19% of the total
respondents who do not own a bank account give the reason for not having the required
documents. From this we can infer that making the process of getting an official ID more
accessible or more efficient might lead to increased bank account ownership and thus leading to
more financial inclusivity.
13 | P a g e
Problem Statement 4
From the following data set, we have attempted to determine the proportion of males and females
using mobile phones. In order to do the same, respondents were asked to reveal their gender and
the respective access to mobile phones. The certain variables that were considered are as follows:
 DG2. Is the respondent a male or a female?

(i) 1: Male
(ii) 2: Female
 MT2. Do you personally own a mobile phone?

(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
Now we need to perform the two-sample proportion test to check whether there is any significant
difference between males and females using mobile phones.
To test whether there is any difference between the proportion of males and females that using
mobile phones, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion test at 95%
confidence interval.
H0: The proportion of males and females using a mobile phone is the same. (βm = βf )
H1: The proportion of males and females using a mobile phone is not the same. (βm ≠ βf )
14 | P a g e
Frequency table
Gender and Mobile Ownership

20000
15000
10000
Female Yes
5000 Male No
0
Yes No
Own a Mobile
| Mobile
Gender | No Yes | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Female | 13,806 11,356 | 25,162
Male | 5,582 17,283 | 22,865
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 19,388 28,639 | 48,027
The above contingency table is showing the different combinations of the employment
status of males and females. While 45.13% of females own mobile phones, 75.58% of
males own mobile phones. This infer that more number of males own mobile phones than
females.
15 | P a g e
Two-sample test of proportions Female: Number of obs = 25162

Male: Number of obs = 22865
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Female | .5486845 .0031371 .5425359 .5548331
Male | .2441286 .0028408 .2385606 .2496965
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .3045559 .0042322 .2962609 .312851
| under Ho: .0044827 67.94 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
diff = prop(female) - prop(male) z = 67.9395
Ho: diff = 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
value is 0.000. The value of z-critical is 1.96. So, in this case there is z calculated is greater than
the z critical, and the p-value is lesser than 0.05. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis. This
concludes that the proportion of males and females using a mobile phone are not the same.
Problem Statement 5
From the following data set, we have attempted to understand the proportion of people having
mobile phones and a bank account. In order to do the same, respondents were asked to reveal their
accessibility of mobile phones and their accessibility for bank accounts. The certain variables that
were considered are as follows:
 MT2. Do you personally own a mobile phone?

(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
 FN1.2. Do you have bank account that is registered in your name?
(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
difference between people owning mobile phones and people having a bank account registered in
their name.
16 | P a g e
To test whether there is any difference between the proportion of people having mobile phone and
people having a bank account, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion
test at 95% confidence interval.
H0: The proportion of people owning a mobile phone and owning a bank account is same. (βm
= βb )
H1: The proportion of people owning a mobile phone and owning a bank account is not the same
(βm ≠ βb)

Two-sample test of proportions Mobile: Number of obs = 48027
Bank Account: Number of obs = 48027
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Mobile | .4036896 .0022388 .3993016 .4080776
Bank Account | .227622 .0019133 .223872 .2313719
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .1760676 .002945 .1702956 .1818397
| under Ho: .0029993 58.70 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
diff = prop(var3) - prop(var4) z = 58.7034
Ho: diff = 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
concludes that the proportion of people owning a mobile phone and owning a bank account is not
the same.
17 | P a g e
Problem Statement 6
From the following data set, we have attempted to understand the relation of people having access
to Bank Account & Using mobile phone for payment. In order to do the same, respondents were
asked to reveal their ownership of bank account and use of phone for payment purpose. The certain
variables that were considered as follows:
Qustion Label (FII Data 2018) Question Values

MT2 MT2. Do you personally own a 1=Yes
mobile phone? 2=No
UP2.1 UP2.1. Have you ever made or 1=Yes

received a payment using a 2=No
mobile phone?
variables, and cannot provide any inferences about causation.
Chi2 test
We want to test the association between having a mobile phone and using payment service through
it. For this purpose we will be employing a Pearson’s Chi2 test of independence.
H0: There is no statistical relationship between owning a mobile phone & using it for payment.
H1: There is a statistical relationship between owning a phone & using it for payment.
Contingency Table
own a | Payment using Phone
Phone (MT1 | (UP2_1)
) | Yes No | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Yes | 1,518 27,121 | 28,639
No | 74 19,314 | 19,388
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 1,592 46,435 | 48,027
The above contingency table shows owning a mobile phone (MT1) in row and using payment
through mobile (UP2_1) in column. The total sample in this case is 48,027.
18 | P a g e
Chi 2 Test Statistics for independence
own a | Payment using Phone
Phone (MT1 | (UP2_1)
) | Yes No | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Yes | 1,518 27,121 | 28,639
No | 74 19,314 | 19,388
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 1,592 46,435 | 48,027
Pearson chi2(1) = 872.7774 Pr = 0.000
In the above test statistics, the value of Pearson chi 2 is 872.774 and the p-value is 0.000. In this
case p-value < 0.05 which means that there is a very small probability of the observed data under
the null hypothesis of no relationship. So, we reject the null hypothesis. This concludes that there
is a significant relationship between the having a mobile phone and using mobile payment.
Year 2013
Problem Statement 1
From the following data set, we have attempted to determine the proportion of employed and
unemployed persons having a bank account. In order to do the same, respondents were asked to
reveal their accessibility of bank accounts and their employment status. The certain variables that
were considered are as follows:
 DL1. Do you currently have a job that earns you income?

(i) 1:Yes
(ii) 2: No
 FN1.2. Do you have bank account that is registered in your name?
(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
difference between employed and unemployed people who own a bank account.
19 | P a g e
To test whether there is any difference between the employed and unemployed people who own a
bank account, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion test at 95%
H0: The proportion of employed and unemployed people having a bank account is the same.
(βe = βue )
H1: The proportion of employed and unemployed people having a bank account is not the same.
(βe ≠ βue)
Contingency table:-
Employment and Bank Account

15000
10000
Employed Yes
5000
Unemployed No
0
Yes No
Bank Account
| Bank Account
Job Status | Yes No | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Employed | 12,147 10,527 | 22,674
Unemployed | 8,548 13,802 | 22,350
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 20,695 24,329 | 45,024
The above contingency table is showing the different combinations of the employment status of
males and females. While 53.57% of employed people have bank accounts, 38.24% of unemployed
people have bank accounts. More number of employed people have bank accounts, when
compared to those are unemployed.
20 | P a g e
Two-sample test of proportions Unemployed: Number of obs = 22350

Employed: Number of obs = 22674
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Unemployed | .6175391 .0032508 .6111677 .6239106
Employed | .4642763 .003312 .4577848 .4707677
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .1532629 .0046408 .1441671 .1623587
| under Ho: .0046975 32.63 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
diff = prop(unemployed) - prop(employed) z = 32.6262
Ho: diff = 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
concludes that the proportion of employed and unemployed people owning a bank account is not
the same.
Problem Statement 2
From the following data set, we have attempted to determine the proportion of male and female
being employed. In order to do the same, respondents were asked to reveal their gender and
employment status. The certain variables that were considered are as follows:
 DG2. Is the respondent a male or a female?

(i) 1: Male
(ii) 2: Female
 DL1. Do you currently have a job that earns you income?
(i) 1: Yes
(ii) 2: No
difference between proportion of males and females being employed.
21 | P a g e
To test whether there is any difference between the proportion of males and females that are
employed, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion test at 95%
H0: The proportion of males and females being employed is the same. (βm = βf )
H1: The proportion of males and females being employed is not the same. (βm ≠ βf )
Contingency table
Gender & Employment

20000
15000
10000
Female Yes
5000
Male No
0
Yes No
Employment
| Employment
Gender | No Yes | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Female | 18,617 7,897 | 26,514
Male | 3,733 14,777 | 18,510
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 22,350 22,674 | 45,024
The above contingency table is showing the different combinations of the employment status of
males and females. While 29.78% of females are employed, 79.83% of males are employed. More
number of males are employed than females.
22 | P a g e
Proportion test statistics (Two sample variable)
Two-sample test of proportions female: Number of obs = 26514
male: Number of obs = 18510
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
female | .7021574 .0028085 .6966528 .7076619
male | .2016748 .0029493 .1958943 .2074552
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .5004826 .0040726 .4925005 .5084646
| under Ho: .0047889 104.51 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ho: diff = 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
From the above test statistics, we can clearly infer that the z- statistics value is 104.5079 and the
p-value is 0.000. The value of z-critical is 1.96. So, in this case there is z calculated is greater than
concludes that the proportion of males and females having a job is not the same.
Problem Statement 3
From the following data set, we have attempted to determine the proportion of male and female
using bank account. In order to do the same, respondents were asked to reveal their accessibility
of bank accounts and their gender. The certain variables that were considered are as follows:
 DG2. Is the respondent a male or a female? (check for 2013)

(i) 1. Male
(ii) 2. Female
 FF1. Do you have a bank account with your name?
(i) 1. Yes
(ii) 2. No
difference between the proportion of males and females having bank account.
23 | P a g e
To test whether there is any difference between the proportion of males and females having bank
account, we have formulated the hypothesis and tested it through proportion test at 95% confidence
interval.
H0: There is no significant difference between male and female having bank account. (βm = βf)
H1: There is a significant difference between male and female having bank account. (βm ≠ βf)
Contingency table
| Bank Account
Gender | Yes No | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
Male | 10,347 8,163 | 18,510
Female | 10,348 16,166 | 26,514
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 20,695 24,329 | 45,024
The above contingency table is showing the different combinations of the having bank accounts
of male and female. While 39.02% of females have bank account, 55.88% of males have bank
accounts. This infers that males have more bank accounts than females.

Two-sample test of proportions Female: Number of obs = 26514
Male: Number of obs = 18510
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Female | .6097156 .0029958 .6038439 .6155873
Male | .4410049 .0036494 .4338522 .4481576
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
diff | .1687108 .0047216 .1594567 .1779649
| under Ho: .0047734 35.34 0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ho: diff = 0

Pr(Z < z) = 1.0000 Pr(|Z| > |z|) = 0.0000 Pr(Z > z) = 0.0000
the z critical, and the p-value < 0.05. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis. This concludes
that the proportion of males and females having bank account is not same.
24 | P a g e
Conclusion
The objective of financial Inclusion is easy access to financial services for every one irrespective
of geography and demography, but unfortunately it is not happening, while moving from financial
Exclusion to Financial Inclusion, care should be taken that it should not become Illusion. This
Paper covers concept of Financial Inclusion and scenario at 2013 and 2018. The importance of
financial inclusion is recognized after the global financial crisis 2008-09 as the major portion of
the world was excluded from financial services. The situation In India is not different than the
world; still a major portion of the society is derived from basic financial services. Today financial
literacy is a biggest challenge for the society. It is essential for overall socio-economic
development of the county. Financial inclusion helps to achieve the sustainable development of
the country, by providing financial services to the unreached people with the help of financial
institutions. We saw how financial services have growing in India. With high saving rate, favorable
demography and use of technology this sector will grow multiple times in coming years throwing
lot of employment opportunities. Literacy is a strong weapon which can root out the social issues
like dowry, corruption and child labor. Literate population can contribute manifolds in the
economic and social development of a nation.
References
 Alka Singh, Role of Technology In Financial Inclusion ,International Journal of Business

and General Management (IJBGM)
 Bansal, S., 2014. Perspective of Technology in Achieving Financial Inclusion in Rural
India. Procedia Economics and Finance, 11, pp.472-480
 Bansal S. (2013) "Perspective of Technology in Achieving Financial Inclusion in Rural
India" (SIMSARC)
 Fanta A., University of Stellenbosch Business School, Makina D.,University of South
Africa "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCIAL
INCLUSION: CROSS-SECTIONAL EVIDENCE"
 Fanta A., Makina D., "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TECHNOLOGY AND
FINANCIAL INCLUSION: CROSS-SECTIONAL EVIDENCE"
25 | P a g e
 Gammage S., Kes A., Winograd L., Sultana N., Hiller S., Bourgault S., 2017 "Gender and
digital financial inclusion: What do we know and what do we need to know?" International
Center for Research on Women
 Gupta, P. and Singh, B., 2021. Role of Literacy Level in Financial Inclusion in India:
Empirical Evidence. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, Vol. 1(No. 3),
pp.272-276
 Gwalani.H and Parkhi. S, (2013), "Financial Inclusion -Building a success model in the
Indian context), Symbiosis Institute of Operations Management
 Thankom A., Kamath R., 2015 "Financial inclusion: Policies and practices"
 https://prsindia.org/policy/report-summaries/national-strategy-financial-inclusion
 https://finclusion.org/reports/#Inida
26 | P a g e
POPULATION STUDIES
MIGRATION AND ITS THEORIES
A BRIEF ANALYSIS
PERIODICAL-III
Submitted by
Saloni Som
MAECO2037
5/7/21
0
MIGRATION
A permanent or semi-permanent change of domicile is referred to as migration.
There are no restrictions on the length of the journey or whether it is voluntary
or involuntary, and no distinction is made between external and internal
migration. Every act of migration, no matter how short or long, easy or difficult,
has an origin, a destination, and a set of impediments in between. The distance
of the motion is one of the sets of intervening obstacles that are always present.
Individuals, groups, or populations desiring to make generally permanent
changes of residence are referred to as migrants. A person who makes a
somewhat permanent change of residence from one place to another during a
specific length of time is referred to as a migrant.
GROSS MIGRATION
Data that refer to all moves or all migrants, within a specific definition of
migration that is being applied, are concerned with "gross" migration.
Concerning a given area, the sum of in-migration and out-migration is referred
to as gross migration, and of in-migrants and out-migrants as gross migrants
NET MIGRATION
Net migration refers to the balance of movements in opposite directions.
Concerning a given area, it is the difference between the volume of in-migration
and out-migration. When in-migration exceeds out-migration, the net going to
area is called "net in-migration", which takes a positive sign. In the opposite
case, there has been "net out-migration", which takes a negative sign
MIGRATION STREAM
A migration stream is a group of migrants who leave a common point of origin
and arrive at a common point of destination over a set period.
MIGRATION EFFICIENCY
The ratio of net migration to gross migration is known as migration efficiency.
Migration in a given area may be either efficient or inefficient. If there has been
a lot of in-migration and minimal out-migration, for example
MIGRATION INTERVAL
The period during which the migration takes place is referred to as a migration
interval. Because migration is a time-consuming procedure, it must be divided
down into intervals so that migration data may be assembled independently for
each interval.
•Intra-district migration, i.e. migration within the district
• Inter-district migration, i.e. migration from one district to another within state
• Inter-State migration, i.e. migration from one state to another
• International migration, i.e. migration from one country to another
FACTORS AFFECTING MIGRATION
The elements that influence the decision to migrate and the migration process
can be categorized into four categories
•Factors associated with the area of origin
•Factors associated with the area of destination
•Intervening obstacles
• Personal factors
People who live in a given location have an immediate and frequently long-term
familiarity with it and are usually able to make informed and unhurried
judgments about it. This isn't always the case with factors related to the
destination area. Knowledge of the destination region is rarely exact, and some
of the benefits and drawbacks of a place can only be appreciated by living there.
Another significant distinction between characteristics linked with origin and
destination areas is connected to life cycle stages. For many migrants, their place
of origin is the place where they spent their formative years, and where the
general good health of youth and the lack of bothersome responsibilities result
in an overvaluation of the positive aspects of the environment and an
undervaluation of the negative aspects in retrospect.
There are two types of migrations
•Internal Migration
•International Migration
INTERNAL MIGRATION
Internal migration is a change of permanent residence within a country that
involves a geographic relocation across a political boundary, usually a county or
country-like geographical unit. However, not all changes in residency constitute
migrations. Demographers do make a distinction between "movers" and
"migrants."
Residential migration to a destination location is referred to as in-migration,
whereas migration from a source area is referred to as out-migration. The area
of origin is the neighborhood where the migration started, and the area of
destination is the neighborhood where the migration finished. The term "return
migration" refers to people returning to their home country following an initial
out-migration.
IN-MIGRATION
Residential migration of people to a destination location is referred to as in-
migration.
OUT-MIGRATION
Out-migration refers to the migration of persons from an area of origin.
RETURN MIGRATION
The term "return migration" refers to people returning to their home country
following an initial out-migration.
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
International migration is the movement of people from one country to another.
IMMIGRATION
An immigrant is a person who enters a new country of permanent residency and
crosses an international border in the process.
EMIGRATION
Conversely, emigration refers to the permanent departure of people from a
country, an emigrant migrates away from a country to establish a permanent
residence elsewhere.
REMIGRATION
The term "remigration" refers to international migrants returning to their home
nations. A migrant is an international migrant who returns to his or her home
place of residence at a later date.
ASYLUM SEEKER
A refugee or asylum seeker is someone who is forced to from their home country
due to persecution, violence, or extreme deprivation, and typically ends up in a
nearby nation.
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
Within internal migration, there is a four-way classification of migration
according to their direction of movements within and between rural and urban
areas; these are:
• Rural to Rural migration
• Rural to Urban migration
• Urban to Rural migration
• Urban to Urban migration
Demographers have usually looked at internal migration in LDCs in the context
of urbanization. In some ways, migration from rural areas to towns and cities
resembles patterns seen in MDCs. Urban economic and social changes made
cities more appealing, while changes in rural areas freed up agricultural labor
triggered a major migration of people from rural areas to towns and cities.
Rural-rural migration is a major component of internal migration in LDCs,
however, it is not as large as a rural-urban movement in terms of numbers.
Various national governments have actively fostered, openly coordinated, and
in some cases forcibly imposed migration to rural areas in many countries.
People migrate spontaneously from one rural region to another in reaction to
population increase and land shortages in densely populated rural areas, the
opening of more fertile fields for settlement, and soil fatigue. Because tropical
soils are weak and quickly depleted, some settlers relocate after a few years to
fresh, undeveloped forces.
THEORIES OF MIGRATION
The following theories have been discussed:
•Ravenstein’s law of migration
•Lee’s theory of migration
•Todardo’s model of Rural-Urban Migration
RAVENSTEIN’S LAW OF MIGRATION

•Most migrants only proceed a short distance, and toward centers of absorption
The majority of migrants go only a short distance
•Migration occurs in steps
Migration proceeds step by step
•Long-range migrants usually move to urban areas
Migrants going long distances generally go by preference to one of the great
centers of commerce or industry
•Each migration moves in the opposite direction
Each current of migration produces a compensating counter-current
•Rural dwellers are more migratory than urban dwellers
The natives of towns are less migratory than those of rural areas
•Internal migration rates are higher among females
Females are more migratory than males within the Kingdom of their birth, but
males more frequently venture beyond
•Large towns grow more by migration than by a natural increase
Families rarely migrate out of their county of birth
•Migration increases with economic development
Migration increases in volume as industries and commerce develop and
transport improves
•Major migration flows are from rural to urban areas
Migration is mostly due to economic causes
EVALUATION
Ravenstein's rules sparked outrage, with some claiming that while he had
observed migration patterns, this was not the same as uncovering "natural
laws." He delivered another study four years later, this time on migratory trends
in Europe and North America, in which he pointed out an exception to migration
patterns based on the American frontier experience. People are more prepared
to go large distances to occupy unsettled territory than they are in a more
settled country, such as the United Kingdom, he said.
LEE’S MIGRATION MODEL

•Migration varies with the degree of diversity of areas
•Volume varies with the diversity of people
•Volume is related to the intervening obstacles
•Volume varies with fluctuations in the economy
•Volume increases with time unless severe checks are made
•Improved technology diminishes intervening obstacles (cheap transport)
•Volume varies with the state of progress in an area (high rate of progress lead
to more mobility)
LAWS RELATING TO CHARACTERISTICS OF MIGRANTS

•Migration is selective
•Migrants responding primarily to plus factors at destination tend to be
positively selected (professionals, academics, etc.)
•Migrants responding primarily to negative factors at origin tend to be
negatively selected (distress migrants)
•Taking all migrants together, selection tends to be bi-modal. For any origin,
some are positively selected some are negatively selected
•The degree of positive selection increases with the difficulty of the intervening
obstacles
•Characteristics of migrants tend to be intermediate between the
characteristics of the population at origin and destination
EVALUATION
•.In order to anticipate migratory trends, Lee's model takes into account
push/pull forces as well as intervening impediments. A motive to leave a country
or location is referred to as a push factor. A draw factor is a reason to visit a
particular location. Something in the way of migration is an intervening
impediment. Lee's approach isn't flawless because it doesn't take human nature
into consideration.
TODARO'S MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION

•Migration is stimulated primarily by economic consideration of relative costs
and benefits.
•The decision to migrate depends on “expected” rather than “actual” urban-
rural real wage differentials.
•The “expected” differential is determined by the interaction of the two
variables:
actual urban-rural wage differential; and
probability of successfully obtaining employment in the urban modern sector.
•The probability of obtaining an urban job is inversely related to the urban
unemployment rate.
•Migration rates over urban job opportunity growth rates are not only possible
but also rational and probable in the case of continued positive urban-rural
expected income differentials
The basic Todaro model is expressed as:

m = f (current urban employment rate, urban-rural real income differential,
personal factors, and other factors)
(Other factors: distance, personal contacts, urban amenities)
Empirical testing of Todaro model: For empirical testing of Todaro’s model
econometrics studies have used the following kind of macro-level variables:
Mij/Pi = f (Yi, Yj, Ui, Uj, Zi, Zj, Cij, Dij)
Where Mij = Migration from (i) place to (j) place
Pi = Population at (i)
Y = Wage/income at (i) and (j)
U = Unemployment rates at (i) and (j)
Z = Degree of urbanization
Dij = Distance between (i) and (j)
Cij = Friends/relatives of place (i) at place (j)
EMPIRICAL TESTING OF THE TODARO MODEL FOUND THAT:
• The rate of migration increases with the size of the urban-rural wage
differential.
• The job probability variable and urban unemployment rates have come
out as strong explanatory variables.
EVALUATION
• Todaro’s model has been well received by the economists
• A large number of empirical studies (both micro and macro) were made
• Todaro did not incorporate the employment opportunities available to
migrants in the urban informal sector in LDCs
• The volume of migration is not very high where rural-urban wage
differentials are maximum
• Migrants often do not migrate just to maximize their expected income but
they move to places where their friends/relatives have already gone
• The issues of the relations among poverty, mobility, underdevelopment,
and migration in the LDCs are not at all taken into account by Todaro
CONCLUSION
A permanent change of residence of such time and distance that a change in
the physical and social surroundings happens is referred to as migration. It's
commonly measured as a shift of residence across political lines, usually
between counties. Every year, on average, one out of every five people
relocates. One out of every fourteen people moves from one county to
another. A substantial portion of interregional migration occurred from east to
west and south to north until around 1950. The latter flow has since reversed.
Both whites and blacks are flocking to the South these days. In terms of age,
race, and socioeconomic level, there are significant inequalities among people
who move. Small adults, as well as young children who move with their
parents, are the most prone to relocate. Whites are more likely than blacks to
migrate, however, the latter do so more frequently. The qualities of only one
place or element are rarely used to explain migration. Any migration requires a
determination that the benefits of the destination place outweigh the
disadvantages of moving.
In general, people relocate to “improve their lot” in life. This is still happening
now, and it will continue to happen as long as individuals believe there are
better prospects and living circumstances abroad. Humankind has always been
and will continue to be peripatetic.

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Study of the revival of Indian Economy

Post 2020 downturn

GOKHALE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS

Post Covid Job Market

30.00% 24.00% Total

10.00% 6.00% 6.00%

Investment in exhaustive commodity

Future Salary Estimation

32% Stay Same

Movement of the rupee

Convertibility of the rupee

convertibility would not

Effect of Aatmanirbhar package on exports and the rupee

Devaluation is immaterial 2.00%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%

Effect of Aatmanirbhar package on

RBI action for economic revival

keep interest rates

24% progressively lower interest

Government should do to revive the economy

Sector wise growth

Expected GDP Growth Rate in 5

Purchasing Manager Index of India

Priorities of Policy Makers

0.00% 5.00% 10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%

Immediate money and future

Universal Basic Income

does not matter

There should not be any

AN EVALUATION OF THE MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN

GUIDE NAME: MS PRANITA PATHAK

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