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Research Methodology Ii Investors Reactions Toward Mergers and Acquisitions
Research Methodology Ii Investors Reactions Toward Mergers and Acquisitions
Compiled by:
Nurul Fithri Sylvani
1201130435
INTRODUCTION
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1.2 Research Background
Besides the growth of company motive, Gaughan (2011) is also examined the
types of synergy which consist of operating synergy and financial synergy. Operating
synergy aims to derive revenue enhancement and cost reduction. The companies seek
for the possibility to decrease the cost of capital when one or more companies are
combined.
Several studies regarding the impact of merger and acquisition have been
conducted by some researchers and some researchers found a different result on it.
For instance, Cybo-Ottone and Murgia found positive abnormal returns for European
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Bank merger announcements (Gaughan, 2011:141). This implies the markets see
benefits, and the most obvious benefits from bank mergers would be cost economies
(Gaughan, 2000:141). Conversely, Abdi et al. (2001) found that from the observation
which is 60 companies involved; including target companies and acquirer companies
for each; “the total results indicate that the target companies earned positive CAR,
while shareholders of the acquirer/bidder companies showed negative CAR, at the
time the deals were announced” (Abdi et al., 2001). From the statistical calculation, it
shows that the target companies increase shareholder value, while the acquirer/bidder
companies destroy shareholder value (Abdi et al., 2001).
Figure 1.1
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Source: IMAA
The decreasing of either the number of transactions or the value of transactions may
be caused by the cost of mergers and acquisitions itself. Moreover, the risk behind
mergers and acquisitions are also considered.
Figure 1.2
Source: IMAA
The announcement of mergers and acquisitions can affect the market reaction,
as the result, the share prices can be increasing or decreasing. The shareholder value
measured by the returns of the shares. Since innovative events in high-tech firms are
often extremely uncertain and the economic value thereof is highly unpredictable,
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investors may well interpret such announcements in a variety of ways, causing
increased price volatility (Liu, 2000 in Fernandez et al., 2011). The event study to
measure the announcement effect towards share prices is commonly used by
analyzing the abnormal return.
Refer to the statement above and issues finding regarding to the market
reaction to merger and acquisition strategy, the author is interested in conducting a
research with the title: “The Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on Shareholders
Value in Telecommunications Firms in ASEAN members listed in ASEAN
Exchange.”
There is a difference between the theory and the research findings regarding
the impact of mergers and acquisitions on market value. The theory stated that
mergers and acquisitions enable the acquire companies to gain positive result in an
increase of share prices as one of measurement of market value. These strategic
maintains the creation of shareholders value prior to commercial objectives. In
contract to the theory, previous researcher examined that announcement of merger
and acquisition resulted in negative return (Abdi et al., 2001; Wiriastari, 2010;
Sugiarto, 2000)
This research this research aims to reanalyze the shareholder value creation of
the firms involved in mergers and acquisitions surrounding its announcement
measured by abnormal returns.
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B. Do mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN telecommunications firms lead to
an increase in volatility of share price of the firms involved?
C. Does mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN telecommunications firms
significantly impact on abnormal returns after announcement?
1.5 Research Objectives
A. To know whether mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN
telecommunications firms results in positive impact on the share prices of
the firms involved.
B. To know whether mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN
telecommunications firms leads to an increase in volatility of the share
price of the firms involved.
C. To know whether mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN
telecommunications firms significantly impacts on abnormal returns after
its announcement.
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Can be used as a guideline in decision making process regarding merger and
acquisition strategy and its implication on shareholder value creation.
C. Companies
Can be used to see the benefits and the impact of mergers and acquisitions
strategy implementation on share prices in order to enhance shareholder value
creation. It can be determined by looking at stock price response to mergers
and acquisitions that have been conducted by the firm(s) involved.
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theoretical framework leading to a conclusion, research hypotheses
and scope.
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CHAPTER II
THEORETICAL REVIEW AND RESEARCH SCOPE
A merger occurs two organizations of about equal size unite to form one
enterprise (David, 2011:158). In this case they will be looking for synergy gains,
which would arise from two companies sharing common tasks, which in turn
would reduce unit costs the higher the level of output (Abdi et al., 2001). In a
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merger, the corporations come together to combine and share their resources to
achieve common objectives (Abdi et al., 2001)
A. Horizontal Merger
A horizontal merger occurs when firms that make and sell similar
products to the same customers merge (Ferrell, 2009:164). It means
that the companies conduct merger with their competitors. According
to Westen et al. (2004), this type of merger is regulated by
governments due to the possible negative effects competition. Some
believe that horizontal mergers potentially create monopoly power on
the part of the combined firm, enabling it to engage in anticompetitive
practices (Westen et al., 2004:6).
B. Vertical Merger
When companies operating different but related levels of an industry
merge, it is known as a vertical merger (Ferrell, 2009:164). In many
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instances, a vertical merger results when one corporation merges with
one of its customers or suppliers (Ferrell, 2009:164).
C. Conglomerate Merger
A conglomerate merger results when two firms in unrelated industries
merge (Ferrell, 2009:164). Refers to Gaughan (2011), the companies
that conduct conglomerate merger are not competitors and do not have
a buyer-seller relationship. Conglomerate firms differ fundamentally
form investment companies in that they control the entities to which
they make major financial commitments (Weston et al., 2004:8).
A. Friendly Acquisition
Friendly acquisition is the business combination in which the target
firm agrees acquired by the acquirer firm. This is due to the agreement
between CEO of the acquirer firm and the target firm’s management
group to approve the acquisition.
B. Reverse Acquisition
Reverse acquisition is the acquisition in which the acquirer firm
purchases the target firm by issuing voting shares to a target firm
which will result in the transfer of ownership (PSAK no.22, 2010
revision).
C. Hostile Acquisition
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Hostile acquisition is the acquisition in which the target firm disagrees
with the acquisition, or in other words it is the acquisition by force.
However, the target firm cannot refuse as the majority of shares have
been bought by the acquirer company in the secondary market
(Dasmanto, 2012).
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Firms may decide that a merger will create value by combining
complementary resources of two partners. For example, a firm that has a
strong distribution unit could benefit from merging with a firm that has a
strong distribution unit.
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can collude to restrict their output and raise price, thereby increasing their
profits.
2.2 Value Creation
There are number of ways to measure value creation, but many academics
favor event studies. These studies estimates abnormal stock returns on, and
around, the merger announcement date. An abnormal return is usually defined as
the difference between an actual stock return and the return on a market index or
control of group stock. (Ross et al., 2008:835).
The abnormal return is the actual return of the stock over the event
window less normal return that would be expected if the event did not arise
(Campbell, Lo & McKinlay, 1997 in Abdi et al., 2001). The abnormal return can
be calculated by using three method: mean adjusted return method, market model
method, and market adjusted return method (Weston et al., 2004; Jogiyanto,
2003). Those methods are explained by Weston et al. (2004, 152-153) as follow:
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To use the market model, a clean period is chosen, and the market model is
estimated by running a regression for the days in this period. The predicted
return of firm for a day in the event period is the return given by the market
model on that day using these estimates.
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2. Once the event dates are known, returns are collected around these dates
for each of the firms in the sample. In doing so, two decisions have to be
made. First, the analyst has to decide whether to collect weekly, daily, or
shorter-interval around the event. Second, the analyst has to determine
how many periods of returns before and after announcements date will be
considered as part of the event window.
3. The returns, by period, around the announcement date, are adjusted for
market performance and risk to arrive at excess returns for each firm in the
sample.
4. The excess returns, by period, are averaged across all firms in the sample,
and a standard error is computed.
5. The question of whether the excess returns around the announcement are
different from zero is answered by estimating the t statistic for each
period, by dividing the average excess return by the standard error. If the t
statistics are statistically significant, the event affects returns; the sign of
the excess return determines whether the effect is positive or negative.
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research to examine share price response to alliance announcements (Chan et al.,
1997; Das et al., 1998; Neill et al., 2001; Zhang & Aldridge, 1997 in Fernandez et
al., 2011). Market model will be used in this research to know the return on the
days in the period. While, to analyze the return for several different event periods,
CARs (Cumulative Abnormal Returns) is computed. An approach proposed by
Beaver (1968) in Fernandez et al. (2011) is used to test the volatility hypothesis. It
is measured by calculating AVARit (Average Abnormal Return).
Strategic Alliances,
Mergers and
Acquisitions
Share returns
(Data Processed)
Variables &
Researcher(s Object of Variable
Hypothesis Results
) Research Differences
Method
Delaney & Shareholder Abnormal Not include -. The cumulative
Wamuziri Wealth: Return, Market abnormal returns for
target shareholders
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(2004) Financial Market Adjusted increased significantly
Performance and Adjusted Return and bidding firms did
not change
Abnormal Share Return,
significantly.
Returns -. The main increase in
abnormal returns for
target shareholders,
while there is a small
value added to
shareholders of the
bidding firm.
Won, Cheung, Share prices and Abnormal Not include -. The market reactions
& Mun (2009) Factors Returns Regression of target firms is
negative
Affecting CAAR Normal Model
-. There is no abnormal
Returns, return on target firms at
Regression the times surrounding
the announcement
Model
period.
t-statistics -. CAAR for target
firms during the pre-
announcement, the
announcement period
and the post-
announcement are
negative
Ma et al., Share prices, Abnormal -. Using t- -. The stock market
(2009) Valuation Returns, paired test have positive
cumulative abnormal
Effects Normal
returns in three
Returns different event
Wilcoxon windows
-. Valuation effects of
Signed-Rank
information leakage
Test about M&A deals are
statistically significant
Sugiarto Return for
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(2000) Shareholders,
Share Prices
Movement
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CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research method used in this research is quantitative data, since the
data required to analyze the shareholder value is share prices taken from Yahoo
Finance and ASEAN Exchange indexes. Sekaran and Bougie (2010: 105) stated
that descriptive study is undertaken in order to ascertain and be able to describe
the characteristics of the variables of interest in situation. In this research, the
author will measure the variable in daily abnormal return (AR), average abnormal
return (AVAR), and cumulative abnormal return (CAR).
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Table 3.1
Research Variable and Operational Definition
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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