FAQ Chapter 1 - Global Warming of 1.5 ºC

11/6/21, 9:48 AM FAQ Chapter 1 — Global Warming of 1.
5 ºC
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
FAQ Chapter 1
Below is FAQ 1.1 and FAQ 1.2
FAQ 1.1 Why are we talking about 1.5°C?
Summary: Climate change represents an urgent and potentially

irreversible threat to human societies and the planet. In
recognition of this, the overwhelming majority of countries around

the world adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015, the
central aim of which includes pursuing efforts to limit global
temperature rise to 1.5°C. In doing so, these countries, through the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), also invited the IPCC to provide a Special Report on
the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways.
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/ 1/9
11/6/21, 9:48 AM FAQ Chapter 1 — Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
At the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December

2015, 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement2. The first
instrument of its kind, the landmark agreement includes the
aim to strengthen the global response to the threat of
climate change by ‘holding the increase in the global
average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase
to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
The first UNFCCC document to mention a limit to global

warming of 1.5°C was the Cancun Agreement, adopted at the
sixteenth COP (COP16) in 2010. The Cancun Agreement

established a process to periodically review the ‘adequacy of
the long-term global goal (LTGG) in the light of the ultimate

objective of the Convention and the overall progress made
towards achieving the LTGG, including a consideration of

the implementation of the commitments under the
Convention’. The definition of LTGG in the Cancun

Agreement was ‘to hold the increase in global average
temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’. The

agreement also recognised the need to consider
‘strengthening the long-term global goal on the basis of the

best available scientific knowledge…to a global average
temperature rise of 1.5°C’.
Beginning in 2013 and ending at the COP21 in Paris in 2015,

the first review period of the long-term global goal largely
consisted of the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED). This was

a fact-finding, face-to-face exchange of views between
invited experts and UNFCCC delegates. The final report of

the SED3 concluded that ‘in some regions and vulnerable
ecosystems, high risks are projected even for warming

above 1.5°C’. The SED report also suggested that Parties
would profit from restating the temperature limit of the

long-term global goal as a ‘defence line’ or ‘buffer zone’,
instead of a ‘guardrail’ up to which all would be safe, adding

that this new understanding would ‘probably also favour
emission pathways that will limit warming to a range of

temperatures below 2°C’. Specifically on strengthening the
temperature limit of 2°C, the SED’s key message was: ‘While
science on the 1.5°C warming limit is less robust, efforts

should be made to push the defence line as low as possible’.
The findings of the SED, in turn, fed into the draft decision
adopted at COP21.
With the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the UNFCCC

invited the IPCC to provide a Special Report in 2018 on ‘the
impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial

levels and related global greenhouse gas emissions
pathways’. The request was that the report, known as SR1.5,

should not only assess what a 1.5°C warmer world would
look like but also the different pathways by which global

temperature rise could be limited to 1.5°C. In 2016, the IPCC
accepted the invitation, adding that the Special Report

would also look at these issues in the context of
strengthening the global response to the threat of climate
change, sustainable development and efforts to eradicate

poverty.
The combination of rising exposure to climate change and
the fact that there is a limited capacity to adapt to its

impacts amplifies the risks posed by warming of 1.5°C and
2°C. This is particularly true for developing and island
countries in the tropics and other vulnerable countries and
areas. The risks posed by global warming of 1.5°C are greater

than for present-day conditions but lower than at 2°C.
FA Q 1 . 1 , F I G U R E 1 HD  
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A timeline of notable dates in preparing the

IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of
1.5°C (blue) embedded within processes and
milestones of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC;
grey), including events that may be relevant for
discussion of temperature limits.
FAQ 1.2 How close are we to 1.5°C?
Summary: Human-induced warming has already reached about

1°C above pre-industrial levels at the time of writing of this Special
Report. By the decade 2006–2015, human activity had warmed
the world by 0.87°C (±0.12°C) compared to pre-industrial times
(1850–1900). If the current warming rate continues, the world

would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around
2040.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cut
greenhouse gas emissions with a view to ‘holding the
increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

While the overall intention of strengthening the global
response to climate change is clear, the Paris Agreement
does not specify precisely what is meant by ‘global average
temperature’, or what period in history should be

considered ‘pre-industrial’. To answer the question of how
close are we to 1.5°C of warming, we need to first be clear
about how both terms are defined in this Special Report.
The choice of pre-industrial reference period, along with
the method used to calculate global average temperature,
can alter scientists’ estimates of historical warming by a

couple of tenths of a degree Celsius. Such differences
become important in the context of a global temperature

limit just half a degree above where we are now. But
provided consistent definitions are used, they do not affect
our understanding of how human activity is influencing the
climate.
In principle, ‘pre-industrial levels’ could refer to any period
of time before the start of the industrial revolution. But the

number of direct temperature measurements decreases as
we go back in time. Defining a ‘pre-industrial’ reference
period is, therefore, a compromise between the reliability of
the temperature information and how representative it is of

truly pre-industrial conditions. Some pre-industrial periods
are cooler than others for purely natural reasons. This could
be because of spontaneous climate variability or the
response of the climate to natural perturbations, such as

volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun’s activity. This
IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C uses the
reference period 1850–1900 to represent pre-industrial

temperature. This is the earliest period with near-global
observations and is the reference period used as an
approximation of pre-industrial temperatures in the IPCC

Fifth Assessment Report.
Once scientists have defined ‘pre-industrial’, the next step is

to calculate the amount of warming at any given time
relative to that reference period. In this report, warming is
defined as the increase in the 30-year global average of

combined air temperature over land and water temperature
at the ocean surface. The 30-year timespan accounts for the

effect of natural variability, which can cause global
temperatures to fluctuate from one year to the next. For
example, 2015 and 2016 were both affected by a strong El

Niño event, which amplified the underlying human-caused
warming.
In the decade 2006–2015, warming reached 0.87°C (±0.12°C)
relative to 1850–1900, predominantly due to human activity

increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. Given that global temperature is currently
rising by 0.2°C (±0.1°C) per decade, human-induced

warming reached 1°C above pre-industrial levels around
2017 and, if this pace of warming continues, would reach
1.5°C around 2040.
While the change in global average temperature tells
researchers about how the planet as a whole is changing,

looking more closely at specific regions, countries and
seasons reveals important details. Since the 1970s, most land

regions have been warming faster than the global average,
for example. This means that warming in many regions has
already exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Over a

fifth of the global population live in regions that have
already experienced warming in at least one season that is

greater than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
FA Q 1 . 2 , F I G U R E 1 HD  
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Human-induced warming reached

approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels in
2017.
At the present rate, global temperatures would reach 1.5°C around

2040. Stylized 1.5°C pathway shown here involves emission
reductions beginning immediately, and CO2 emissions reaching
zero by 2055.
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11/6/21, 9:48 AM FAQ Chapter 1 — Global Warming of 1.

FAQ 1.1 Why are we talking about 1.5°C?

Summary: Climate change represents an urgent and potentially

recognition of this, the overwhelming majority of countries around

At the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December

The first UNFCCC document to mention a limit to global

sixteenth COP (COP16) in 2010. The Cancun Agreement

the long-term global goal (LTGG) in the light of the ultimate

towards achieving the LTGG, including a consideration of

Convention’. The definition of LTGG in the Cancun

temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’. The

‘strengthening the long-term global goal on the basis of the

temperature rise of 1.5°C’.

Beginning in 2013 and ending at the COP21 in Paris in 2015,

consisted of the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED). This was

invited experts and UNFCCC delegates. The final report of

ecosystems, high risks are projected even for warming

would profit from restating the temperature limit of the

instead of a ‘guardrail’ up to which all would be safe, adding

emission pathways that will limit warming to a range of

temperature limit of 2°C, the SED’s key message was: ‘While

science on the 1.5°C warming limit is less robust, efforts

With the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the UNFCCC

impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial

pathways’. The request was that the report, known as SR1.5,

look like but also the different pathways by which global

accepted the invitation, adding that the Special Report

strengthening the global response to the threat of climate

change, sustainable development and efforts to eradicate

The combination of rising exposure to climate change and

the fact that there is a limited capacity to adapt to its

2°C. This is particularly true for developing and island

countries in the tropics and other vulnerable countries and

areas. The risks posed by global warming of 1.5°C are greater

A timeline of notable dates in preparing the

FAQ 1.2 How close are we to 1.5°C?

Summary: Human-induced warming has already reached about

Report. By the decade 2006–2015, human activity had warmed

the world by 0.87°C (±0.12°C) compared to pre-industrial times

(1850–1900). If the current warming rate continues, the world

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cut

greenhouse gas emissions with a view to ‘holding the

increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C

above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the

temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

response to climate change is clear, the Paris Agreement

does not specify precisely what is meant by ‘global average

temperature’, or what period in history should be

close are we to 1.5°C of warming, we need to first be clear

about how both terms are defined in this Special Report.

The choice of pre-industrial reference period, along with

the method used to calculate global average temperature,

can alter scientists’ estimates of historical warming by a

become important in the context of a global temperature

provided consistent definitions are used, they do not affect

our understanding of how human activity is influencing the

In principle, ‘pre-industrial levels’ could refer to any period

of time before the start of the industrial revolution. But the

we go back in time. Defining a ‘pre-industrial’ reference

period is, therefore, a compromise between the reliability of

the temperature information and how representative it is of

be because of spontaneous climate variability or the