Why a wide-scale return to the

office is a myth

For two years, employees have been waiting for ‘the day’ when
everyone goes back to the office. But it’s probably never coming.

Workers were meant to have returned to the office by now. Our

expectation, back in early 2020, was that once the pandemic had ended,
we’d all collectively resume our pre-Covid patterns of office-based
working.

Yet that’s not how things have turned out. Two years on, employees
around the world continue to face ongoing uncertainty as to when – and if
– they’ll be expected back at the workplace in person. The emergence of
different Covid-19 variants has exacerbated matters; Omicron has
triggered record cases globally, forcing employees who were slowly
adapting to a partial, hybrid return to the office to reverse course and work
remotely again.

Today, the idea that we’ll all return to the office together again seems
highly unrealistic. Some companies have already switched permanently to
remote work or hybrid models. And, while others may be holding out for
staff to come back to their desks, each delay further entrenches flexible
working patterns – rendering a full-staff return less likely.

“The return-to-office date has died,” says Nicholas Bloom, professor of

economics at Stanford University, US. “Endless waves of Covid have led
most CEOs to give up, and instead set up contingent policies: if, when
and how to return to the office.”

But if we finally abandon the idea that there will ever be a day when we’re
all permanently back at our office desks, what should we expect instead?

The days of workers jamming streets to get to work en masse may

become a relic of pre-pandemic days

Why there’s no ‘back to normal’

When the pandemic first hit, and its scale was still to be mapped, a
widespread return to the workplace seemed likely in 2020.

Employers and employees alike anticipated a hard date to come back:

some kind of reversion to a pre-pandemic normal – the majority of
workforces together in offices, at least a few days a week. In turn, the
expectation was that many prior characteristics of work, such as the fixed
nine-to-five schedule, would be restored.
Businesses of all kinds, across multiple sectors, set return-to-office dates
throughout 2020. However, as the pandemic dragged on, companies
pushed plans back. This was in part due to ongoing health concerns in
many countries, but also because workers had become comfortable – and
remained productive – in their remote set-ups, and some even pushed
back against these dates.

“Early in the crisis CEOs would pronounce return-to-office plans only for
them to get wiped out by each new wave and variant,” explains Bloom.
And even when employers did fully expect to bring workers back at a
defined moment regardless, the unpredictable nature of the pandemic
meant return-to-office dates were increasingly kicked down the road.

Now, in the third year of Covid-19, the return-to-office date remains a

constantly moving target. It seems increasingly improbable to expect a
universal return. Flexibility and remote work have become so deeply
rooted that reimposing pre-pandemic working models appears a nigh-on
impossible task. “Habits are hard to break,” says Almuth McDowall,
professor of organisational psychology at London’s Birkbeck University.
“We’ve all harnessed more innovative, efficient ways of doing our jobs.”

Early in the crisis CEOs would pronounce return-to-office

plans only for them to get wiped out by each new wave
and variant – Nicholas Bloom
Uncertainty around health remains rampant; we don’t know when the
pandemic will end, whether Covid will become endemic or if another
variant will emerge – let alone rough dates for when these might occur.
And employees will continue to have different levels of risk tolerance; for
instance, a healthy, single person may be more willing to go back to the
office than an immunocompromised worker, or one with children too
young to be vaccinated. “Amid Omicron, there is much low-level anxiety –
many don’t want to rush back to the office,” adds McDowall.

Considering all these factors, setting a sweeping, all-employee return-to-

office date the way companies have been attempting – and workers have
been anticipating – since 2020 seems like a fantasy: a construction of the
past that no longer reflects our changing world.
Devil in the details

Ultimately, the office return will look different across sectors and
companies; there won’t be a one-size-fits-all ‘back to work’ date – and for
some employees, there won’t be a date at all. How does a worker figure
out what’s next for them?

The ways – and reasons why – employers have already planned to bring
back their workers during the pandemic may be a good indicator for how
they’ll try to do so in the future.
On one hand, it’s likely many of the sectors who’ve tried mightily to pull
employees back into the office multiple times during the pandemic will be
keen to create the fastest, most sweeping return-to-office policies.

Some industries, like finance, are more likely to return to the office as
quickly as possible – but their plans are still up in the air

For example, in finance, executives have been aggressive in their

timelines to bring people back. This is in part due to a highly in-person
work culture, but also due to “aspects of financial services, particularly
around the trading floor, which aren’t as easy to do remotely”, says Chris
Leahy, founder of due-diligence investigative firm Blackpeak. Essentially,
businesses like these are less nimble than others, often hamstrung by
regulations and decades-old practises still assuming that, at some point,
everyone will return.

Even in other sectors that aren’t so regulation-bound, many businesses

have repeatedly set hard return dates, though they’ve had to move
them, sometimes multiple times. Although it’s still murky as to when,
workers at companies like these should plan to return to the office at
some point, since it’s clear their employers are still placing emphasis on at
least some in-person work.

Yet, despite these indicators, the future may be even more malleable than
we expect. Even as some sectors cling to pre-pandemic ways of working,
worker power may potentially destabilise some employers’ best laid plans.

Many bosses haven’t been able to make a firm decision

yet, because we don't know exactly what will happen –
Almuth McDowall
For instance, Bloom says employees’ desire to work from home has
strengthened as the pandemic has lingered, meaning many return-to-
office plans have received staff backlash, both in the finance and tech
industries, particularly from younger workers who question the wisdom of
returning to the office at all. Bloom adds that the ongoing hiring crisis also
means that workers in some sectors currently have more power than
before; if their employer won’t accommodate requests for different job
conditions such as flexible working, employees can choose to switch to
one who will.

Simply, the devil will be in the details for every individual company and
role: what the ‘return-to-the-office’ will look like in practice will differ from
worker to worker – a process that’s still taking time. “Many bosses haven’t
been able to make a firm decision yet, because we don't know exactly
what will happen,” says McDowall. “If you don't think it’s the right thing for
your business to go fully remote or hybrid, then it makes sense to delay
for as long as possible.”
No matter when leaders can start making those decisions, however, it
seems all but certain that the day when we’re all back together on the
train platform, heading into our offices for a Big Bang restart, is gone.
Although it may not be confirmed yet by bosses, the formal end to the full
office return is coming – if not yet already here. “Unless something
drastically changes, then the full return to the office is likely a myth,” says
McDowall.

By – Alex Christian