Political Science Project

India –Pakistan relations: The way forward

By:Soham Roy- 2012/BA.LLB/051

1
Table of contents:

1. Acknowledgements

2. Introduction

3. A brief history of trade relations between India and Pakistan

4. Economic Relations: The road ahead

5. Steps to bolster trade relations between India and Pakistan.

6. Terrorism and India –Pakistan relations

7. India –Pakistan main issues and the way forward.

8. The Kashmir solution

9. Sir Creek issue

10. Siachen issue

11. Is diplomacy the way forward in India-Pakistan relations

12.Conclusion

2
 Acknowledgements:
I take this opportunity to express my profound gratitude and deep regards to my guide Prof.

Afroz Alam for his exemplary guidance, monitoring and constant encouragement throughout

the course of this project. The blessing, help and guidance given by him time to time shall

carry me a long way in the journey of life on which I am about to embark. I also take this

opportunity to express a deep sense of gratitude to our librarian and the support staff which

helped me in completing this task through various stages. Lastly, I thank almighty, my

parents, brother, sisters and friends for their constant encouragement without which this

assignment would not be possible.

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 Introduction:
In the past century or so, the world has seen many complex relationships between countries
but few would disagree with the fact that the relationship between India and Pakistan is one
of the most complex relationships there can ever be. Not so long ago, there was no Pakistan
these two countries were a single country ruled by the greatest colonial power the world has
ever seen –Great Britain. After these two nations came into being in the year 1947, these 2
nations have been embroiled in constant conflict over the disputed territory of Kashmir and
have also been in involved in armed wars on four different occasions along with numerous
border skirmishes and military stand offs.1

But it would also be very hard to deny the fact these two nations share more
similarities than differences than most nations in the world do .Political tensions define the
relationship between India and Pakistan. Other aspects of the relationship between these two
neighbours have been rather neglected. Although in the recent past, the cultural similarities
have received some focus mainly due to the shared passion for cricket and Bollywood , it is
the political tension which defines the relationship between these two nuclear armed
neighbours.

The economic and trade relationship of been these two countries has been
neglected and suffered as a result of the political tensions which has prevailed between two
since their very inception. In the past there have been numerous instances of nations having
excellent trade relations despite political tensions. The relationship between India and China
or the one between US and Russia can be very good examples of such a relationship. India
and Pakistan have enormous potential for developing trade relationships and the trade
relationships between these two nations can be increased manifold The economic
relationship between these two countries will lead to better ties between these two countries
but it would be very unrealistic for anyone to expect that the enhancement of economic ties
will solve the political differences. Enhancement of trade ties should be looked as an end in
itself which will lead to prosperity for the people of these two nations.

India and Pakistan are the two largest economies in South East Asia but the trade
relationship between these two nations is way below potential. One can presume that the
political differences between the two countries is the major reason as to why the trade

1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars

4
relations between these two countries is what it is. 2The current volume of trade between the
two countries is less than 3 billion3 and Pakistan accounts for less than 1% of India’s trade
and India accounts for less than 5% of Pakistan’s trade. 4. This figure includes informal trade
which accounts for nearly half and is almost equal to the formal trade between these two
counties. 5

The paper also takes a relook at the political disputes in which these two countries are
involved and tries to forecast the future and looks at the viability of the solutions to these
political disputes. The paper also focuses on the impact terrorism has had on the bilateral
relationship between India and Pakistan.

2
Muhammad Iqbal Tabish and Mujeeb Ahmed Khan HARNESSING INDIA PAKISTAN TRADE POTENTIAL, INDO –
PAKISTAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION , SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry Report 2011, Pg.2.,
http://www.tdap.gov.pk/word/SAARC_REPORT_2011.pdf
3
.http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ASIA_121219_Pakistn%20India%20Trade%20rptFINAL.pdf
India-Paksitan trade –What needs to be done? What does it matter? -Edited by Michael Kugelman Robert M.
Hathaway pg.1
4
Ibid.
5
Ibid.

5
A brief History of trade relations between India and Pakistan:

At the time, when both these countries gained independence in 1947, India and Pakistan had
excellent trade and were heavily reliant on each other when it came to trade. In the year
1948/49, more than 70% of Pakistan’s trade was with India and more than 63% of India’s
trade was with Pakistan. 6 . It was the year 1949 which brought about the down turn in the
trade relations between India and Pakistan. Between May 1948 and March 1960, 11 Indo-Pak
Trade and Payments Agreements were signed but bilateral official trade declined from Rs.
184.06 crore of Indian rupees in 1948-49 to Rs. 13.63 crore in 1958 and to all time low of
Rs.10.53 crore in 1965-66.7

India and Pakistan declared war on each other in 1965 and after the war there was a
trade embargo till 1974 and despite several attempts made by India to create a distinction
between economic and political ties between the two countries ; the embargo continued to be
in force.8 The Shimla agreement lifted the trade embargo between the two nations on 7 th
December, 1974.

“Since, 1975 when Trading Corporation of Pakistan, a state owned company, was
allowed to import 40 commodities, Pakistan has gradually increased the number of
commodities permitted to be imported from India.” 9 In the times to come, Pakistan gradually
10
increased the items that could be imported to India. In the year 1982, private entities in
Pakistan were allowed to have trade ties with India. 11 A very important moment which would
go on a long way in shaping India-Pakistan ties was becoming member of SAARC in 1986.
12
Pakistan agreed to import 322 import items in 1989. This led to boost in the trade relations
between India and Pakistan. Trade relations were further boosted in 1991 when Nawaz Sharif
came to power. The total volume of trade touched 522 crores in 1992/93 after it was 168
crores in 1990/91. 13 India opened its economy to a large extent in the year 1991 and Pakistan
was granted MFN status by India in the year 1996. This ideally should have bolstered trade
should have bolstered trade between India and Pakistan but trade ties were due to the nuclear

6
http://www.phdcci.in/admin/admin_logged/banner_images/1374649879.pdf pg. 5
7
Ibid.
8
Ibid.
9
http://www.ficci.com/spdocument/20183/StatuspaperonIndiaPakistan.pdf Status paper on India-Pakistan
economic relations-Loknath Acharya and Ashmia Marwaha pg. 7
10
Ibid.
11
Ibid.
12
Supra note 6
13
Ibid.

6
tests conducted by the two nations in 1998 . But it is strange to see that India –Pakistan trade
ties rose after the Kargil war in 1999 and a possible explanation could be the fact that the
conflict between India and Pakistan as to a large extent limited to a small area in Kashmir and
other bordering areas were not affected.14 By 2007/08 trade between the two countries rose to
USD 2.2 billion. But trade between the two countries decreased during 2007/08 due to the
global financial crisis and the terrorist attacks which took place in Bombay.

Economic Relations: The road ahead

The government of Pakistan is considering granting MFN status to India and this step would
lead to a huge boost in the trade relations between the two countries. The year 2012 saw a
rise in economic diplomacy between the two countries. Because of this several positive steps
such as the launch of an integrated checkpoint at the Attari-Wagah land border crossing India
allowing FDI from Pakistan in India and allowing Pakistani businessmen to set up shop in
India.15 Recently the President of Pakistan also ratified a liberal visa agreement and this
agreement is expected to ease the process of conducting business.16

Some of the major problems which the two countries face when it comes to trade are
high tariff and non tariff barriers, poor logistic arrangements, inadequate infrastructure,
17
inefficient bureaucracy , red tape and of course political opposition. Goods like leather,
textile are of particular interest to Pakistan and India’s tariff rates for these goods remains
high.18 There are other problems like transportation and stringent visa regulations. 19.

India and Pakistan have allowed trade across the LOC and this is a significant step in
taking forward the relations between India and Pakistan. The border trade is one of the major
CBM’s (Confidence Building measures) and this was agreed at a meeting between Zardari
and Singh in 2008 along the side-lines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York

14
A Road to peace ?:Prospects of developing greater Indo=Pakistan trade http://iis-
db.stanford.edu/docs/785/Patel_Ravi_Thesis_Final.pdf pg. 33
15
Supra note 3 pg.2
16
http://www.indiapakistantrade.org/data/Dr%20Ishrat%20Husain%20FEB%205%20Speech%20-
%20Normalizing%20India%20Pakistan%20trade.pdf Normalising India-Pakistan trade relations , speech by
Ishrat Hussain ,pg. 2
17
Mohsin Khan Peterson Institute for International Economics , India-Pakistan Trade: A
Roadmap for Enhancing Economic Relations, pg. 2
18
Ibid.
19
Ibid.

7
 20
City. A major plus point in trade which takes place along the LOC is that it is tariff free. 21
Agriculture, cement, engineering industry, transport equipment, tea ,pharmaceutical, textile
machinery, textile industry, chemicals, plastics and petroleum products are some of the areas
where there is a lot of potential for the development of trade ties and these areas require
increased economic corporation between the two countries. 22

India and Pakistan who are also member nations of the SAARC concluded a potentially
path breaking treaty called the SAFTA on January 6, 2004 and this treaty allows for free flow
of trade among member countries by eliminating trade barriers and scaling down tariff rates
to 0-5 percent from January 1, 2016. 23But unfortunately , trade relations between India and
Pakistan have not realised its full potential despite the SAFTA. Some of the major reasons for
this could be because of the fact “that Pakistan's sensitive list applicable to India under
SAFTA includes 58 percent of the items that have high potential for India. Similarly, India‘s
sensitive list for Pakistan has 32 percent of the items with high export potential for
24
Pakistan.” Also political differences have to a quite a large extent affected the
implementation of this agreement.

Another important way of boosting trade ties between these two countries could be
granting of MFN status to India by Pakistan. It is important to remember that India has
already granted MFN in the year 1996. Although the Pakistan government agreed to grant
MFN status to India in 2012 but it has not been given. MFN was necessary as both India and
Pakistan are members of the WTO but both countries did not follow this rule due to the
underlying political tensions between these two countries. MFN basically means that
competitive business opportunities would be equal to that of other business partners but this
would be huge step considering the strained relations between the two countries. 25

But there are also many concerns in Pakistan which is delaying the grant of MFN status
to India. One such concern is raised by the Pakistan automobile industry which believes that
grant of MFN status will destroy Pakistan’s automobile industry which is nascent and will not
be able to compete against the strong Indian automobile industry.26
20
Supra note 9 pg. 27.
21
Ibid. pg. 28
22
Ibid. pg. 29, 30
23
Supra note 2 pg. 4
24
Supra note 16 pg. 4
25
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/pakistanindia-trade-will-be-a-positive-sum-
game/article5204747.ece , SUJAY MEHDUDIA -Pakistan-India trade will be a positive sum game, Oct 7, 2013-
The Hindu
26
Supra note 3 pg. 5

8
 Also other concerns are raised by Pakistan’s agricultural lobby which believes that
heavily subsidised food imports from India will adversely affect them. 27

But this problem could be solved if Pakistan uses its increased revenue in the form of
tariff collection and trade duties once MFN status is granted to help people who have more to
lose than to gain as a result of trade normalisation between the two countries.28

Steps needed to bolster trade relations with the two countries:

1. Grant of MFN status to India by Pakistan

2.Pakistan should devise a more holistic trade policy and should make its market more
competitive by allowing Indian goods and this will in turn also make Indian manufactures
more efficient.29

3. India should export services like IT , medicine , tourism and this will also result in making
the Pakistan more competitive in these sectors.30

4. Since there are seasonal and periodic shortages both in India and Pakistan for the same
kind of agricultural items like food grains, sugar, onion, potatoes etc., India and Pakistan
can enter into special trading arrangements with respect to these agricultural items. This will
be mutually advantageous and benefit the people on either side by removing such shortages
that result in higher prices.31

5. Easing the complexities in visa procedure between the two countries will go a long way in
facilitating trade relations between the two countries.

6. The volume of informal trade is almost equal if not more than that of formal trade and one
way to regularise this is to improve trade infrastructure and bringing those items which
cannot be traded officially to the official list.32

7. Enhanced trade cooperation can also mean lower prices for millions of consumers. Given
this advantage, both the countries can jointly fight poverty deprivation, hunger and
inequality.33
27
Ibid.
28
Supra note 3. Pg 10
29
Ibid.
30
Supra note 9 pg. 51
31
Ibid. pg 52
32
Supra note 6 pg. 6
33
Ibid.

9
8. Both the countries should make trade procedures more transparent and process of doing
business should be quick and efficient.

9. More and more people to contact between businessmen of both countries will go a long
way in enhancing trade relations and this may also contribute more peaceful relations
between the two countries. In India , we already have a influx of talented artists coming in
from Pakistan and in the same way we should have more and more Indian businessmen going
to Pakistan and Pakistani businessmen coming here.

10. The world is facing an acute energy crisis and both the countries have immense potential
for energy corporation and this will certainly benefit both the countries in a big way.

Terrorism and India –Pakistan relations :

Another very important facet of the relations between India and Pakistan is the role played by
terrorism. It is a well acknowledged fact that Pakistan has emerged as the global epicentre of
terrorism. Most people believe that Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI along with the military
play an active role in exporting terrorism in India. Now let us look what made terrorism such
a key issue in Indo-Pakistan diplomacy.

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 Terror first featured in the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan when India
alleged that Pakistan was complicit in funding Khalistani terrorists in Punjab and ISI played
an active role in spreading insurgency in Punjab during the 1980’s. 34 Bu Pakistan’s role in
sponsoring state sponsored terrorism goes back a long time in fact immediately after gaining
independence.

Immediately after independence in the year 1947, Pakistan had taken the help of
tribesman to spread violence and fear in Kashmir and this was done in order to facilitate a
military takeover in Kashmir. The next time when terror formed an important component of
bilateral talks between India and Pakistan was during the insurgency in Punjab in the 1980’s.
India was convinced that Pakistan had a role to play in the insurgency in Punjab but Pakistan
continued to deny these allegations as baseless and this denial was a problem for India back
35
then and this continues to be problem till date. In fact the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv
Gandhi publicly decried Pakistan as the biggest supporter of terrorism on Planet Earth in
Bonn.36

Pakistan has lost each war against India which has been fought by the armies of
the two nations. It is widely known that Pakistan has been funding insurgents, separatists and
other military groups in Kashmir and this can be called as Pakistan’s proxy war against India.
Now let us see the genesis of this proxy war.

The current insurgency problem in Kashmir can be traced back to 1986 when the
electoral polls in Kashmir was rigged and Pakistan took this opportunity to inflame passions
37
against the Indian government. What happened during this this time was that the National
Conference was the only dominant party in the valley and the support for the part was waning
during the 1980’s and the orthodox MUF(Muslim United Front) became popular. So the
National Conference rigged the elections. 38 This caused a huge wave of anger against the
National Conference government. Soon riots broke out in Kashmir against the Farooq

34
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1828640,00.html
35
Sanam noor article Pakistan Horizon Pakistan-India relations and terrorism pg.69
36
Dawn 9th June 1988
37

https://ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/27703/CrossBorderTerrorisminIndiaCounterterrorismStrateg
iesandChallenges.pdf?sequence=2 Cross Border terrorism in India –Counter terrorism strategies and
challenges-Vandana Asthana University of Chicago Urbana Champaign June 2010 pg. 4

38
India, Pakistan, and Kashmir: Antinomies of Nationalism
Author(s): Ashutosh Varshney http://www.jstor.org/stable/2645304 University of California Press

11
government and many muslims started to regard him as a traitor to the Kashmir cause. 39 Now
this was also a time when the military in Pakistan was getting stronger under the leadership of
President Zia and a lot of arms were being supplied to Pakistan by the US. So, the separatists
in Kashmir found an ally in Pakistan They did this by arming young Kashmiris and
supporting groups like The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), a militant
separatist movement, was initially responsible for all political violence and insurgency in
Kashmir.40 Gradually groups like the LET and Hizbul Mujahidden also emerged with the
tacit support of the military and ISI.

India has blamed Pakistan for its role in the Mumbai bomb blasts, Parliament attacks
in 2001 and also for the attacks which took place in Mumbai in 2008. The attacks in Mumbai
in the year was seen as a major setback in the bilateral ties between India and Pakistan. The
attacks in 2008 in Mumbai were unprecedented in the sense that the attacks were not carried
out with the help of bombs but were carried out through human agencies. This was attempted
at gaining the attention of the entire world by holding South Asia’s financial capital hostage
for three days. This attack was also different in the sense that foreigners including US and
European citizens were also harmed.

The only terrorist who was caught in the attack Ajmal Kasab only confirmed the role of
ISI and Pakistan’s military in actively supporting and planning the attacks. Further
investigations by India only confirmed Pakistan’s active support to the terrorists. According
to B Raman, Pakistan’s objective behind this support was the following

“Pakistan has three strategic objectives: (1) to change the status quo in J&K and force
the Government of India to reach a compromise with Pakistan which will concede it at least
part of the territory; (2) to hinder the emergence of India as a major power in Asia on par
with China, an objective shared by China; and (3) to disrupt India’s growing strategic
relationship with the US and Israel. While China has no reasons to be worried about India’s
relations with Israel, it is concerned about the growing military co-operation between India
and the US (particularly between the two navies, including joint exercises in the Indian
Ocean and the Bay of Bengal). It suspects that Indo-US co-operation is directed at
containing Chinese naval power.”41
39
Ibid.
40
Supra note 37
41
Indo-Pakistani Relations After 26/11(ARI) –B Raman
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_eng/Content?
WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/asia-pacific/ari20-2009

12
 The bilateral relations between these two countries reached to an all time low as
Pakistan continued to deny its role in this ghastly and cowardly attacks and called Kasab a
non state actor. India desperately wanted Pakistan to go after the perpetrators and stated that
normalcy would only happen after Pakistan acts against groups like the Let 42 . But this
response was different from India’s reaction when Parliament was attacked .At that time
India stationed its troops near the border and the fear of war real but this did not happen in
43
2008. In a statement issued by the then EAM 44, Pranab Da said that India wanted three
things from Pakistan :

(1) the arrest and handing over to India of the LET’s Pakistan-based operatives named by
the lone terrorist survivor as the brains behind the terrorist attack;

(2) the dismantling of the LET’s anti-India terrorist infrastructure and of other Pakistani
jihadi organisations in Pakistani territory; and

(3) the arrest and handing over of 20 other suspects (Indians as well as Pakistanis, Muslims
as well as Sikhs) wanted for prosecution in India on charges of terrorism.45

Pakistan did arrest the main accused Hafiz Saeed for a while but he went scot free. India
continued to meet representatives from Pakistan in multilateral forums and bilateral relations
resumed in 2011.46 This is because the UPA government believes that diplomacy is the way
forward .

Major or Terrorist Incidents in India (post-9/11) [Source-Newspapers]

• 1 October 2001: Attack on Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. •

3 October 2001. Hijacking attempt of an Indian Airlines aircraft reported by the media and
linked to Pakistan-based terrorists by India. Later it proved to be a farce'. •

13 December 2001: Attack on Indian parliament building. • 22 December 2001: Attack on

American Centre in Kolkata. India accused Pakistan for staging the attack. •

42
Lashkar e toiba
43
http://www.observerindia.com/cms/export/orfonline/modules/issuebrief/attachments/india-pakistan-
relations_1253684871230.pdf pg. 5
44
External Affairs minister
45
Supra note 41
46
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-12-14/news/45191149_1_sartaj-aziz-bilateral-dialogue-
process-india-pakistan-dialogue

13
14 May 2002: India accused Pakistan of an attack in Indian-held Kashmir near Jammu. • 13
July 2002: Attack in Kasmanagar, Kashmir, leaving 27 civilians dead. India accused
Pakistan.

• 23 March 2003: India accused Pakistan for the massacre of 24 Hindus in Indian-held
Kashmir.

• 25 August 2003: Bomb blasts in Mumbai, killing 52 people. Pakistan blamed for the attack.

• 5 July 2005: Attack on Ram temple in Ayodhya. Pakistan accused.

• 29 October 2005: Three serial blasts in New Delhi, leaving 70 dead.

• 7 March 2006: Pakistan accused for three bomb blasts in Varanasi, killing 21 people.

• 11 July 2006: Bomb blasts in commuter trains in Mumbai, killing nearly 200 civilians and
putting a temporary halt to the peace process

. • 8 September 2006: Series of bomb blasts in Malegaon, Maharashtra.

• 19 February 2007: Crude blasts inside bogies of Samjhota Express near bilateral talks is
not an option .

26 November 2008-Terrorist attacks in Mumbai

All the above attacks have been said to have been carried out by some assistance with the ISI
and Paksitan army funded military groups like Lashkar and Jaish e Mohammed.

India –Pakistan main issues and the way forward:

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads since the day the two countries were brought
into existence . Now, this segment will look at the issues which continue to derail the
relations between the countries and try to predict the way forward. The first important issue
is security concerns:

Security :

14
This part has been extensively dealt in the previous portion, this section will only be
concerned with the possible solutions to the problems posed by terrorism. Security remains a
major bone of contention between India and Pakistan. It is well known that Pakistan supports
extremist activities in Pakistan and actively sponsors and aids terrorist groups like the Let and
Jaish e Mohammed. Delinking ISI, Pakistan military from terror groups is sine qua non for
assuaging India’s security issues.

It is also very important to stop madrasas in Pakistan from imparting extremist jihad to
students, The government of Pakistan should crackdown on such institutions and ensure that
kids in Pakistan are not brainwashed. Stopping madrassas from becoming recruitment
centres for terrorist groups like Let and Jaish will go a long way in solving the scourge of
terrorism.

It is also high time that the military establishment in Pakistan realises that India is
not Pakistan’s main threat and securing Pakistan’s eastern borders should not be Pakistan’s
Pakistan’s interest and concern. Pakistan should aim at eliminating the terror infrastructure
which prevails in the country and should look to eliminate groups like the Taliban. This can
be done if Pakistan moves troops from its eastern borders and starts a full-fledged offensive
against the Taliban in Waziristan and other Taliban strong holds.

Taking this step will go a long way in removing the tag of being the “epicentre of
terrrosim” and this will also demonstrate Pakistan’s willingness to combat terror which
indirectly will also bolster overall bilateral ties with India.

The Kashmir problem:

The main bone of contention which has stood in the good relations between India and
Pakistan has been Kashmir. The roots of the Kashmir problem dates back to 1947 at the time
when the two countries were divided. But the problem in 1947 was exacerbated due to the
47
division and animosity created between Hindus and Muslims by the British. Kashmir was
47
http://www.stanford.edu/class/e297a/India,%20Pakistan,%20and%20the%20Kashmirk.pdf India , Pakistan
and the Kashmir Conflict:Towards a lasting solution –Vivek Sankaran and Ramit Sethi pg. 3

15
one the 560 princely states in India present back then and the delay made by the then king of
Kashmir –Hari Singh to confirm the decision of joining either India or Pakistan was the root
cause of this problem.48.

The irony of the Kashmir issue was that Kashmir in 1947 had a Hindu ruler with a
Muslim majority population.49 Maharaja Hari Singh was not inclined to side with either India
and Pakistan, he was non –committal.50 But later Pakistan led tribesman attacked Kashmir
and Hari Singh took the help of Lord Montbatten to combat the tribesman but he agreed on
51
the condition that Kashmir will accede to India. . After this, India and Pakistan fought a
war in 1947 which led to the division of Kashmir into POK and India controlled territory
after the UN mandated ceasefire.52 It is very important to remember that POK is an important
part of India and it has illegally occupied by Pakistan since Kashmir was invaded by
53
tribesmen supported by Pakistan in 1947. The UN had also mandated a plebiscite in
Kashmir but the Indian side felt this was irrelevant due to the fact the free and fair elections
were held in Kashmir , so it can be inferred that the people of Kashmir want to be part of
India.54Another reason as to why plebiscite could not be held was because India felt that
Pakistan did not satisfy the precondition for any kind of plebiscite to be held. 55 The
precondition was related to the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the state of Jammu and
Kashmir.56 So, India felt that the conditions for holding a plebiscite could not be created.

It is also important to understand the reason as to why POK region is so important .

“Because of its location, PoK is of immense strategic importance. It shares borders with
several countries Pakistan, the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan and Tajikistan to the west
and the Xinjiang province of the People's Republic of China to the north. Ever since the
Karakoram highway (KKH) was built to connect Pakistan with China via PoK, the
geopolitical significance of PoK has increased manifold. If PoK were under Indian control,
the geopolitics of the subcontinent and its global fall out would have been very different from

48
http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol._1_No._6;_June_2011/21.pdf Kashmir Conflict: Solutions and
Demand for Self-determination –Rashmi Sehgal-International Journal of Humanities and Social ScienceVol. 1
No. 6; June2011 pg. 188.
49
dl.tufts.edu/file_assets/tufts:UP149.001.00063.0000 pg. 135
50
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/5030514.stm
51
Ibid.
52
Supra note 47, pg.5
53
http://www.idsa.in/system/files/book_PakistanOccupiedKashmir.pdf Pakistan occupied Kashmir :Changing
the Discourse Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses New Delhi pg. 9
54
Ibid. Pg. 10
55
http://www.mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/19156_Kashmir_The_True_Story_19-01-2004.pdf pg. 3
56
Ibid.

16
what it is today. This is because PoK is a gateway to Central Asian republics and to their
expanding markets. Hypothetically speaking, access to Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor
bordering PoK would have given the allied forces a viable option for transporting supplies
for NATO forces.” 57

So, solving this dispute is imperative for global peace and security as this dispute is
so inextricably linked with other global problems like state sponsored terrorism etc.

The future:

Now let us look at the possible solutions to this problem which has embroiled most of South
Asia in the past two decades.

1. An independent Kashmir:

Kashmir can be made an independent country. This is possibly the most difficult scenario as
Kashmir is located in a very strategic location and neither India nor Pakistan would want to
58
give up its hold over Kashmir. It is also certain that this would not be accepted by neither
India nor Pakistan as no country would want to cede a certain part of her territory. Moreover ,
Kashmir would have to start its development policies and programmes from scratch which no
country which might prove difficult for the inhabitants of Kashmir.. Granting independence
to Kashmir might also lead to similar claims made by other countries which may result in the
59
“Balkanisation “ of the region. , Also it would be very difficult to manage the economy of
Kashmir as it is a land blocked country and it would be dependent on India and Pakistan for
resources.60. Granting independence could also make it a safe haven for terrorist outfits like
the Al Qaeda and Taliban.

2. Granting the whole of Kashmir to Pakistan:

This is what Pakistan wants and this solution will never be acceptable to India. Moreover a
substantial part of Pakistan’s population consists of Hindus and Buddhists and they would
simply not accept this solution given Pakistan’s track record in protecting minorities.

3. The whole of Kashmir joining India:

57
Ibid. pg. 11
58
Supra note 48 ,pg. 191
59
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/south_asia/03/kashmir_future/html/4.stm
60
http://www.academia.edu/824927/Possible_Solutions_to_Kashmir_Conflict

17
This is what India wants and this solution would never be acceptable to Pakistan. Moreover
the primarily muslim dominated Azad Pakistan region would never want to be a part of
Hindu majority India.61 Also , Islamic extremists in Pakistan and Afghanistan would never
tolerate and this may cause them to direct terror attacks against India. 62

4. Making Kashmir Valley an independent country, giving Ladakh and Jammu to India and
maintaining status quo in Azad Kashmir:

This can be a victory for everyone as the Hindus and Buddhists in Jammu and Ladakh enter
India and only making Kashmir valley and independent region would deny victory to both
63
Pakistan and India. . But concerns would remain over the terrorist threat it would impose
on India and doubts remain as to whether an independent Kashmir Valley would be
economically viable.

5, Making the status quo official:

This step would result in making LOC the international border between India and Pakistan.
India has expressed its support for this solution but Pakistan has shown reluctance to accept
this solution.64 This solution in my view would be the most acceptable solution between the
two countries as it just makes official the current position. India should make attempts at
convincing Pakistan that this is the most feasible solution to solve this long standing dispute
which has cause tremendous bloodshed and pain for people from both the countries for more
than sixty five years.

Sir Creek issue:

Although Kashmir remains the main bone of contention between Indian and Pakistan, there
are other issues such as Sir Creek and Siachen which further exacerbate the relations between
India and Pakistan.

The dispute over Sir Creek can be traced back to the pre-independence period, to
around 1908, when an argument ensued between the rulers of Kutch and Sind over a pile of
firewood lying on the banks of a creek dividing the two principalities. The dispute was taken
up by the government of Bombay state, which, in 1914, resolved the dispute supported by

61
Supra note 48 pg. 193
62
Ibid.
63
Ibid. Pg. 194
64
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/south_asia/03/kashmir_future/html/

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Map Number B44 and subsequently B74.1 Nothing significant happened in the next 40-50
years, and the dispute came alive again only in the 1960s.65

The Sir Creek relates to conflicting claims over a sixty mile estuary located in the Rann
of Kutch which separates the Sindh province located in the Southern part of Pakistan from
66
the western Indian state of Gujarat. The Rann of Kutch is situated on the border between
Gujarat and Sindh. 67. Following the second war which took place between India and Pakistan
in 1965, Pakistan claimed half of the territory (Rann ) ran along the 24 th parallel and hence
belonged to Pakistan.68. India responded by claiming that the boundary ran roughly along the
northern edge of Rann.69.

The matter was then referred to an international tribunal for arbitration which was
70
known as the “Indo-Pakistani Western Boundary Case Tribunal “. The ad hoc tribunal
awarded 90% of the disputed Kutch to India whereas India was awarded only 10% of the
71
disputed territory. However both these nations did not seek the tribunal’s assistance in
demarcating the territorial boundary along Sir Creek.72

Historically, this issue was always placed on the backburner but is has assumed
importance of late because this dispute has a direct bearing on the boundary delineations
which in fact determines the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) and the Continental Shelf of
both the countries. 73

Diplomatic progress on this issue has been quite slow and it would be fair to say that
both India and Pakistan has initiated a dialogue process in 2008 which came close to solving
this issue but unfortunately everything was put on hold once the attacks in Mumbai took
place. It can be said that in this both the sides should refrain from taking extremist positions

65
https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/ibru/publications/bsbfirstpages/bsb8-4_misra_p1.pdf The Sir Creek
Boundary Dispute :A victim of India-Pakistan linkage politics
66
MARITIME ISSUES BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA: SEEKING COOPERATION AND REGIONAL STABILITY
-Muhammad Ali Thesis
67
THE SIR CREEK BOUNDARY DISPUTE: A Victim of India-Pakistan Linkage Politics –Ashutosh Mishra, IBRU
Boundary and Security Bulletin, Winter 2000-2001 pg. 91
68
Ibid.
69
Ibid.
70
http://lawreview.vermontlaw.edu/files/2012/02/shah.pdf River Boundary Delimitation and the resolution of
the Sir Creek Dispute between India and Pakistan –Sikandar Ahamad Shah Vermont Law Review Vol 34:357 pg.
357
71
Ibid. Pg. 358
72
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/sir-creek-dispute-gujarat-chief-minister-narendra-mod-rann-of-
kutchmaritime-boundary/1/237992.html
73
Supra note 70 pg. 360.

19
and solving this issue could go a long way in restoring confidence in the diplomatic process
of settling disputes between India and Pakistan.

Siachen issue:

The Siachen issue is another major irritant in relations between India and Pakistan. The
Siachen glacier is one of the most inhospitable and glaciated regions of the world. 74 It was
earlier thought that troops cannot survive in Siachen and the region was considered to be
completely inhospitable. Below given is a brief history of the Siachen conflict:

The initial CFL signed via the Karachi agreement in 1949 did not cover the glaciers because
there were difficulties in delineating the line. 75 The decision to take over the Siachen glaicier
was taken in September 1983 by the then prime minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi. . 76In 1984, there
were intelligence reports that Pakistan was about to capture and occupy the area and in
response to this, Mrs. Gandhi ordered the Indian army to occupy the glacier. 77

“Since then, the Indian army has been in physical possession of most of the heights on
the Saltoro Range west of the Siachen Glacier, while the Pakistan army has held posts at
lower elevations of western slopes of the spurs emanating from the Saltoro ridgeline. The
Indian army has secured its positions on the ridgeline, now called the Actual Ground
Position Line (AGPL).”78

Demilitarisation is sine qua non to solve the Siachen dispute. Below mentioned are
certain transcripts of solutions proposed by the India’s strategic community to end the
deadlock.

“ Soon after a political agreement to demilitarise the Siachen conflict zone is reached,
the disengagement process can begin with the Indian and Pakistani armies negotiating its
basic framework The two DGMOs, assisted by civilian representatives from the MEA and
the MoD, can together chair a Joint Working Group (JWG) to finalise the modalities of the
disengagement and monitoring process. This JWG should decide the extent of the area to
beincluded in the demilitarised zone and the stages of demilitarisation. The JWG should also

74
http://www.academicjournals.org/article/article1381925989_Padder.pdf Siachen Stalemate International
Journal of Peace and Development Studies –Sajad Padder pg. 35
75
Ibid.
76
http://in.boell.org/sites/default/files/downloads/Siachen-End-to-the-Impasse.pdf Siachen :End to the
impasse pg. 6
77
Ibid.
78
Ibid.

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work out the stages and the time frame for each stage of the process of disengagement to be
completed. It should be possible for the two sides to agree to demilitarise the area over a
eriod of two summers.

The demilitarised zone north of NJ 9842 should be free of all military and para-military
personnel. The demilitarisation process can begin from the northern sub-sectors that have
the highest posts and proceed systematically to the south. Infantry personnel and artillery
observation post parties should destroy their bunkers and other weapons emplacements after
vacating them. The gun and mortar positions can be vacated simultaneously. Where it is not
possible to take the guns back, these will need to be destroyed in situ. The base camps and
the forward logistics camps on both the sides and the staging camps on the Indian side will
have to be the last to be demilitarized due to the difficulty of the terrain in these areas. Some
of the camps that have good fiberglass huts can be left intact for subsequent use by
mountaineering expeditions and by the teams of international scientists who may be given
access when the Glacier and its surrounding areas are declared a ‘science park’.

Monitoring of the disengagement process to ensure compliance with the demilitarisation

agreement can be done to mutual satisfaction by using national technical means such as
aerial and satellite imagery. Today, aerial reconnaissance through manned fixed wing and
helicopter sorties, side-looking airborne radars and UAVs flying well within each country’s
airspace, provide viable means to monitor disengagement and detect intrusions. Certain
ground-based sensors that are suitable for the terrain and climatic conditions obtaining in
the area can also be used. The monitoring process could be initially unilateral and could
slowly graduate to joint and cooperative monitoring with a jointly manned monitoring centre
established at the LoC between Chalunka and Siari on the south bank of the Shyok River.

The Siachen Glacier and the mountain ranges surrounding it have very little strategic
significance. Therefore, the continued military occupation of the area by both India and
Pakistan is counterproductive and is a retrograde step for pursuing a genuine
rapprochement process. It would be more appropriate to demilitarise the area as a prelude
to negotiations on he extension of the LoC beyond NJ 9842. After demilitarisation has been
successfully completed, the Siachen DMZ can be declared a ‘science park’. Environmental
cleaning will need to be undertaken as a high priority task so that the mess left by 25 years of
military occupation can be cleared up.79
79
http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/IB125-Ploughshares-Gurmeet.pdf Resolving Siachen :Perspectives from
India –Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal pg. 4

21
Demilitarization of the Siachen glacier will boost Indo-Pak bilateral relations to a great
extent.80 So far, diplomatic talks on this issue have not been very productive and it would
require greater political will from leaders of both the countries to break this impasse and
reach a solution.

Is the diplomacy the way forward in India –Pakistan relations: (My

personal opinion)

In the recent past, there has always been a controversy whenever Pakistan violates
the border agreements and there are skirmishes along the border. The controversy has always
been on whether diplomacy and talks should continue between India and Pakistan despite
skirmishes and regular violations by Pakistan along the LOC.

In my humble opinion, India should present itself as a weak state and therefore there
should not be dialogue between India and Pakistan when such unfortunate incidents take
place. When PM Manmohan Singb recently met PM Nawaz Sharif in New York , there was
a huge uproar by right wing parties like the BJP that India is positioning itself as a weak state
and Pakistan military was simply taking advantage of this.
80
Ibid.

22
 I personally subscribe to the realist view of international politics and view all politics as a
game of power. To stop Islamabad or rather Rawalpindi from directing terrorist activities
against India, we need the government in New Delhi to stop all diplomatic dialogue with
Pakistan and doing this will send a strong signal to Rawalpaindi. As we know in Politics ,
perception is reality and India by stalling the dialogue process ,India will be perceived by
Pakistan as a strong state.

Conclusion:

These are two countries that have been born out of bloodshed but they have been born at the
same time. It is important for people from both countries and the whole world to realise that
peaceful relations between these two counties is imperative for global peace and tranquillity.

Both India and Pakistan have too much to lose through war and much to be gained
through peace. It is important to realise that both India and Pakistan are grappling with huge
amounts of poverty and underdevelopment . So peaceful relations between both the countries
will ensure that more funds are directed towards empowering these neglected inhabitants by
transferring some of the funds allocated to defence expenditure. Both these countries should
realise that defence is not an area where ideally these two countries would want to be
allocate resources at this stage of development .

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 Both Pakistan and India have to give upon certain entrenched positions to ensure that
dialogue between these two countries continues . But as we all know that the fundamental
differences in the view points of both these two countries when it comes to contentious issues
like Kashmir is very divergent and it will not be easy for both these countries to resolve these
disputes.

So what I propose is that India and Pakistan should forget their former positions and
look at the issue of Kashmir and even other issues like Siachen and Sir Ceek from a new
perspective keeping in mind that it is in the best interest of both these counties to seek peace
as war will cause mutual damage to both these countries.

Also I want to advocate that the economic relations between both these two countries
should not be hampered even when the political relations is at its lowest ebb. India and
Pakistan can both take the example of Sino-India ties because economic corporation between
India and China is strong despite political differences.

Bibliography:

1. The New York Times

2. The Hindu

3. Vermont Law Review

4. SAARC reports

5. FIICI reports

6. The times of India

7. BBC world

8. Ministry of External Affairs

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