Pr

edi
cti
onoff
act
orsi
mpact
ings
tudent
sdur
ingCOVI
D-1
9

CHAPTER1

I
NTRODUCTI
ON
1
.1PREAMBLE
Educat
ioni
sthepr
oces
sofdev
elopi
ngone’
sski
l
lsandknowl
edge.Suddenl
yther
eis
adr
ast
icchangei
ntheeducat
ional
sys
temduet
othecov
id-
19col
l
eges
/school
sar
ecl
osed
andt
heys
tar
tedanewwayoft
eachi
ngl
i
keE-
Teachi
ng.
Duet
othi
scov
id-
19,
ther
ear
eal
ot
ofchal
l
engesi
nsoci
o-economi
cas
pect
sacr
osst
hewor
ld.
Inor
dert
oreducet
rans
mis
sion,
manycount
ri
eshav
edeci
dedt
otakemeas
urest
opr
events
oci
algat
her
ingsandt
opr
omot
e
s
oci
aldi
stanci
ng.
Duet
othes
eres
tri
cti
ons
,hi
gherl
ear
ningi
nst
it
uti
onshav
emadechanges
t
othei
rteachi
ng met
hodsi
.
e.f
rom cl
ass
room-
bas
ed t
eachi
ng met
hodst
o e-
lear
ning
met
hods
.Duet
othi
ski
ndoft
eachi
ng,
student
sst
art
edf
eel
i
nguni
nter
est
edt
owar
dss
tudi
es.

1
.2PROBLEMSTATEMENT:
Atpr
esentOnl
i
neLear
ningi
stheoneoft
hemai
nas
pecti
nthef
iel
dofEducat
ion.
Duet
othi
ski
ndoft
eachi
ngs
tudent
sar
efaci
ngl
otsofchal
l
engesi
nadopt
ingt
henewway
oft
eachi
ngdur
ingt
het
oughphas
es.Thes
echal
l
engesi
ncl
udet
hei
nabi
l
it
ytoacces
sthe
onl
i
nel
ear
ningandt
eachi
ngt
ool
s,t
hedi
ff
icul
tyf
ors
tudent
sli
vi
ngi
nrur
alar
eas
,thos
efr
om
l
ow-
incomef
ami
l
ies
,as
soci
ateds
tres
s,depr
ess
ion,
andanxi
ety
.

1
.3OBJECTI
VEOFTHEPROJECT:
Themai
nobj
ect
iv
eoft
hiswor
kist
opr
edi
ctt
heaccur
acyoft
hes
tudent
sthatar
e
i
mpact
edbycov
id-
19.
Int
hiswear
eus
ingmachi
nel
ear
ningmodel
sins
teadofques
tionand
ans
wers
urv
eyt
oobt
ainbet
teraccur
acy
.

1
.4METHODOLOGY
I
nor
dert
osol
veorpr
edi
ctt
heaccur
acyoft
heabov
edi
scus
sedpr
obl
em.Wewi
l
l
us
etheMachi
neLear
ningal
gor
it
hmsl
i
keLogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion,
Nai
veBay
es,
RandomFor
est
Cl
ass
ifi
erand ANN.
Wewi
l
lus
eas
tudentdat
asetf
ori
mpl
ement
ingt
heabov
efourmodel
s
/
Algor
it
hmst
oknowwhi
chmet
hodgi
vest
hebet
terr
esul
t.

1
.5SI
GNI
FICANCEOFTHEWORK
Ear
lyandexactanal
ysi
sonf
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdur
ingcov
id-
19hel
psi
n
under
standi
ngt
hef
act
orst
hatar
emaki
ngt
hes
tudent
sles
sint
eres
ttowar
dst
hes
tudi
es.
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orsi
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Si
nceasapar
entorat
eacherwecan’
tabl
etounder
standt
hef
act
orst
hatar
egoi
ngt
o
ef
fectt
heeducat
ionoft
hechi
l
dren.
Wi
tht
hiss
tudywear
egoi
ngt
ofi
ndt
hef
act
orst
hatar
egoi
ngt
oimpactt
hes
tudent
dur
ingt
hebl
endedl
ear
ning.Hencef
ori
dent
if
yingt
hef
act
orst
hatar
egoi
ngt
oaf
fect
chi
l
dreneducat
ionweus
edas
tudentdat
aset
.

1
.6ORGANI
SATI
ONOFTHEWORK
Thepr
esentchapt
erdi
scus
sesaboutt
hei
ntr
oduct
ionoft
hepaperi
.
e.,i
tcont
ains
i
nfor
mat
ionaboutwhati
sthepr
obl
emandt
hemet
hodol
ogywhi
chi
sgoi
ngt
obeus
edi
nthi
s
paper
.I
tal
sodi
scus
sesaboutt
hei
mpor
tanceoft
hewor
k.
Thes
econdchapt
err
epr
esent
sthel
i
ter
atur
erev
iewi
.
e,i
tdi
scus
sesaboutt
hev
ari
ous
met
hodol
ogi
esus
edbydi
ff
erentaut
hor
sint
hei
rpaper
stof
indt
hef
act
orsi
nfl
uenci
ngt
he
s
tudent
sdur
ingcov
id-
19.
Thenextchapt
erdi
scus
sesaboutt
hes
oft
war
erequi
rement
si.
e.
,f
ront
endt
ool
sand
backendt
ool
sfort
hepr
oject
.
Thef
our
thchapt
erdi
scus
sesaboutt
hemet
hodol
ogyus
edi
nthi
spr
ojectandhowt
he
met
hodi
simpl
ement
ed.
Ital
soexpl
ai
nst
heent
ir
epr
oces
sbyus
ingt
hear
chi
tect
uredi
agr
am.
Thel
astt
wopar
tsr
esul
tandconcl
usi
onexpl
ai
nsaboutt
heout
putobt
ainedby
i
mpl
ement
ingt
hemet
hodol
ogi
es.Al
sogi
vesacl
earpi
ctur
eonr
esul
tsbyus
ingbargr
aphs
andcompar
isont
abl
es.

1
.7SUMMARY
I
nthi
schapt
erwedi
scus
sedaboutt
hef
act
orst
hatar
egoi
ngt
oimpactt
hes
tudent
s
dur
ingCOVI
D-1
9 andexi
sti
ngappr
oachesf
ors
olv
ingt
hepr
obl
em andal
soaboutt
he
met
hodol
ogyus
edi
ntt
hispaper
,thedat
asetcol
l
ect
edf
ori
mpl
ement
ingt
hemet
hodol
ogy
,
anddi
ff
erentt
ypesofexi
sti
ngmet
hodsf
ors
olv
ingt
hepr
obl
em.
Als
o,t
hes
igni
fi
canceoft
he
pr
obl
emi
sexpl
ai
ned.

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orsi
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CHAPTER2

LI
TERATUREREVI
EW

2.
1PREAMBLE
I
nthi
spr
evi
ouschapt
erwehav
edi
scus
sedaboutt
hef
act
orsi
nfl
uenci
ngt
he
s
tudent
sdur
ingcov
id-
19duet
obl
endedl
ear
ning,met
hodol
ogi
esf
ors
olv
ingi
t,andal
so
aboutwhati
sthemet
hodus
edi
nourwor
k.Nowt
hispaperemphas
izesabouts
omeoft
he
met
hodsus
edbyt
heaut
hor
sint
hei
rwor
k.Di
ff
erentr
ecogni
zabl
epr
oofs
trat
egi
eswer
e
pr
opos
edandev
aluat
edher
e.Ther
ear
evar
ioust
echni
quesut
il
i
sedf
orpr
edi
cti
ngt
he
f
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdur
ingcov
id-
19.

2.
2RELATEDTOPI
COFLI
TERATUREREVI
EW
Theaccompl
i
shmentofanydi
gi
tal
sys
temi
sdependi
ngoni
tsus
agebyus
ers[
15]
.
Ther
efor
e,i
nst
udent
s’poi
ntsofv
iewadopt
ingdi
gi
taleducat
ioni
sthekeycr
it
eri
onf
ort
he
s
ucces
soft
heonl
i
nel
ear
nings
yst
em.Att
hes
amet
ime,i
tisi
mpor
tantt
oaddr
esst
he
pr
obl
emst
hatar
efaci
ngwhi
l
ee-
lear
ningadopt
ion.Manys
tudi
esexpl
ai
nedaboutdi
gi
tal
educat
ionpr
obl
emsacr
osst
hewor
ld.I
n[1
6],UAE s
tudentaccept
ancef
oradopt
inge-
l
ear
ning t
echnol
ogy was quant
if
ied. St
udi
es r
elat
ed t
o onl
i
ne l
ear
ning (
vi
rt
ual
cl
ass
room/
cour
se-
war
e)hav
ebeenwi
del
yres
ear
ched. s
ever
als
tudi
esr
elev
antt
othe
cont
extoft
hisr
esear
chwer
esel
ect
ed.

Mahar
ishiMar
kandes
hwar(
DeemedobeUni
ver
sit
y),Mul
l
ana,Ambal
aDi
str
ict
,
Har
yanahav
ecol
l
ect
edt
hedat
athr
oughanonl
i
nes
urv
ey,
ands
eri
esofques
tionnai
reswer
e
cr
eat
edf
ort
hes
urv
ey,
thes
urv
eyi
sconduct
edf
ory
oungandmi
ddl
eagedadul
tsbas
edon
I
nter
nat
ionalPhy
sicalact
iv
it
yques
tionnai
re-
shor
tfor
m(I
PAQ-
SF)
.TheSur
veycont
ained
t
hrees
ect
ions
.

Thef
ir
sts
ect
ioni
ncl
udesas
eri
esofdemogr
aphi
cques
tions
,thes
econds
ect
ion
oft
hes
urv
eycompr
isedofphy
sicalact
iv
it
ybef
oret
hel
ock-
downper
iod,andt
het
hir
d
s
ect
ion oft
he s
urv
ey compr
ised ofphy
sicalact
iv
it
y dur
ing t
he l
ock-
down per
iod.
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orsi
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Demogr
aphi
c-r
elat
ed ques
tionsi
ncl
uded i
nthe s
urv
eywer
e age,wei
ght
,gender
,and
s
ubj
ect
iv
est
atement
swhi
chi
ncl
ude,f
earr
egar
dingCOVI
D-1
9andr
educt
ionofphy
sical
act
iv
it
yduet
oCOVI
D-1
9lock-
down.

Al
-Adwan et
.al
.
,conduct
ed a r
esear
ch on 435 s
tudent
sfr
om f
iv
e di
ff
erent
uni
ver
sit
ies
.Theout
comesoft
hei
rres
ear
char
ethes
elf
-abi
l
it
yofcomput
eroper
ati
on,
s
yst
emqual
i
ty,
andcomput
erpl
ayf
ulnes
sar
ethef
act
orst
hathadal
argei
mpactonadopt
ing
di
gi
tal
educat
ionmet
hods
.

KunalChat
urv
edi
,etal
.
,2020hasdoneaRes
ear
chont
hei
mpactofcov
id-
19on
s
tudent
sandt
eacher
sduet
oE-
lear
ning.Theyal
soconcl
udedt
hatmanys
tudent
sar
enot
s
pendi
ngt
imei
neducat
ionandal
soment
ionedt
hatt
heyar
esuf
fer
ingf
rom s
tres
s,anxi
ety
duet
othecov
id-
19andt
hechangei
ntheeducat
ions
yst
em.

Kecoj
evi
c,Al
eks
andar
,etal
.2020hasconduct
edas
urv
eyandt
heyas
keds
tudent
sa
s
eri
esofques
tionsondi
ff
erentas
pect
sofeducat
ionandl
i
fes
tyl
eandt
heyas
kedt
oans
wer
t
hemi
nthef
ormofr
ati
ngoft
hes
cal
e(i
.
e.f
rom1
-5)
.fr
omt
hiss
urv
eyt
heyf
oundt
hatmanyof
t
hemar
est
rongl
yagr
eedt
hatt
heef
fect
iv
enes
soft
heeducat
ions
yst
emhascamedown.

I
nsummar
ybyobs
erv
ingal
lthos
eres
ear
chpaper
sweobs
erv
edmos
toft
hem has
donet
hei
rres
ear
chi
ndi
ff
erentway
sbycol
l
ect
ingdat
afr
om di
ff
erentcol
l
eges
/regi
onsi
n
di
ff
erentway
sandpr
edi
ctedt
her
esul
tsus
ingdi
ff
erents
tat
ist
ical
/di
ff
erentmet
hods

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orsi
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TABLE2.
1COMPARI
SONOFLI
TERATUREREVI
EW
S.
No. Aut
horandYear Pr
oposed Mer
it
s Demer
it
s/Fut
ure
Met
hodol
ogy Deci
si
on

1
. Mahar
ishi anonl
i
nes
urv
ey,
and Sur
veybas
edonHer
ethe s
urv
ey
Mar
kandes
hwar s
eri
esof di
ff
erents
ect
ioni
s conduct
ed
(
Deemedobe ques
tionnai
res hel
psi
nknowi
ng bas
ed on
Uni
ver
sit
y), i
ncl
udest
hree i
n whi
ch ar
eaques
tions
s
ect
ions s
tudent
s ar
est
udent
sar
enot
s
truggl
i
ng expr
ess
ing t
hei
r
pr
obl
ems
.

2. Kecoj
evi
c,Al
eks
andar
,An onl
i
ne s
urv
eySur
veybas
edonHer
ethe s
urv
ey
etal
.2020 bas
edons
cal
i
ng(
1-5) r
ati
ng hel
ps i
nis conduct
ed
under
standi
ng among s
mal
l
t
he s
tudentgr
oup of
pr
obl
emseas
il
y.s
tudent
s.

3. Al
-Adwanet
.al
. Uni
fi
ed Theor
y ofSur
vey hel
ps i
nSmal
lgr
oup of
Accept
ance and Us
eunder
standi
ng s
tudent
s ar
e
ofTechnol
ogy t
he s
tudentcons
ider
ed
behav
iour v
erydur
ing t
his
cl
ear
ly. r
esear
ch.

4. KunalChat
urv
edi
,etMean,
chi
-squar
etes
t Hel
ps i
nli
mit
ati
on i
sthe
al
.
,2020 under
standi
ng s
ampl
i
ng

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orsi
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t
he r
elat
iont
echni
queus
ed.
among t
he
f
act
ors
.

2.
3SUMMARY
Thi
schapt
ers
ummar
izesaboutt
her
esear
chwor
kdonet
oimpl
ementt
hei
deaof
cl
ass
ify
ingt
hepr
obl
emsf
aci
ngbys
tudent
sdur
ingE-
Lear
ning.
Theabov
econt
entexpl
ai
ns
di
ff
erentmet
hodsus
edbydi
ff
erentaut
hor
sint
hei
rpaper
s.

CHAPTER3

SYSTEMREQUI
REMENTS

3.
1PREAMBLE
Chapt
er2di
scus
sest
hes
trat
egi
espr
opos
edbyv
ari
ousaut
hor
stoi
dent
if
ythe
f
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdur
ingBl
endedLear
ning.
Ital
sodi
scus
sesaboutadv
ant
ages
anddi
sadv
ant
agesoft
hos
eal
gor
it
hmi
spr
opos
ed.Now,
chapt
er3wi
l
ldi
scus
sthes
oft
war
e
r
equi
rement
sandgi
vest
hel
i
stt
ool
sthatar
eut
il
i
zedf
ort
hei
mpl
ement
ingt
hepr
opos
al
appr
oach.

3.
2SOFTWAREREQUI
REMENTS

3.
2.
1Py
thon3
Py
thon i
s a gener
al-
pur
pos
eint
erpr
eted and hi
gh-
lev
elpr
ogr
ammi
ng l
anguage.
Py
thoni
sint
eract
iv
e,obj
ect
-or
ient
ed,dy
nami
cal
l
yty
pedandgar
bage-
col
l
ect
ed.I
tsuppor
ts
mul
ti
pl
eincl
udi
ngpr
ocedur
al,
obj
ect
-or
ient
ed,
andf
unct
ional
progr
ammi
ng.
Py
thon3i
sthenew v
ers
ionoft
hel
anguage.Thel
anguagei
smos
tlyt
hes
ame,but
manydet
ail
s,es
peci
al
lyhowbui
l
t-i
nobj
ect
sli
kedi
cti
onar
iesands
tri
ngswor
k,hav
echanged
cons
ider
abl
y,andal
otofdepr
ecat
edf
eat
ureshav
efi
nal
l
ybeenr
emov
ed.
Ther
eas
onwhywear
eus
ingpy
thoni
s:py
thoni
shi
ghl
yint
erpr
etedl
anguagewi
th
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s
ever
alpr
e-def
inedpackages
,li
brar
iesi
nitandpr
ovi
di
ngway
stoexecut
ecompl
ext
asks
wi
thi
nles
sti
meandf
ewl
i
nesofcode.
Pyt
honi
sus
efulf
orbot
hres
ear
chanddev
elopment
anddev
elopi
ngpr
oduct
ions
yst
ems
.Py
thoni
seas
ytol
ear
n.
Py
thoni
sfr
eeopens
our
ce.So,wecani
nst
allPy
thonv
ers
ion3.
7orabov
efr
om
chr
ome(
aswehav
eins
tal
l
edpy
thon3.
764bi
t)
.Al
lver
sionsofpy
thonar
eav
ail
abl
eher
e:

ht
tps
://
www.
pyt
hon.
org/
downl
oads

Fi
g3.
2.
1:
Pyt
honI
nst
all
ati
on

3.
2.
2Jupy
terNot
ebook
Jupy
ternot
ebooki
sanopens
our
cewebappl
i
cat
iont
haty
oucanus
etocr
eat
eand
s
har
edocument
sthatcont
ainl
i
vecode,equat
ions
,vi
sual
i
zat
ions
,andt
ext
.Wecanei
ther
us
eAnacondaf
orr
unni
ngcode.

3.
3HARDWAREREQUI
REMENTS
3.
3.1PROCESSOR

cl
ass3pr
oces
sororhi
gher
.

3.
3.3RAM

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Atl
eas
t4GB

3.
4SUMMARY

Thi
schapt
ergi
vescompl
etedet
ail
sofr
equi
reds
oft
war
ecomponent
stoi
mpl
ement
t
hepr
opos
eds
yst
em.
Ital
soexpl
ai
nst
hepur
pos
eoft
hos
esof
twar
etool
s.

CHAPTER4
METHODOLOGY
4.
1PREAMPLE
Fr
omt
hepr
evi
ouschapt
erwecamet
oknowaboutt
hedi
ff
erentmet
hodol
ogi
esus
ed
bydi
ff
erentaut
hor
sfori
dent
if
yingf
act
orsaf
fect
ings
tudent
sdur
ingE-
lear
ning.
Thi
schapt
er
i
sdi
scus
esaboutwhatar
etechni
quesus
edi
nthi
schapt
erandt
hei
rwor
king.
4.
2ARCHI
TECTUREDI
AGRAM
Af
ters
tudy
ingt
hev
ari
ousappr
oachesandmet
hodst
owar
dsf
act
orsi
mpact
ing
s
tudent
sdur
ingE-
Lear
ninganewi
deat
hatwi
l
limpr
ovet
heaccur
acyofpr
edi
cti
ngf
act
ors
hasbeenus
ed.
Fig4.
2showst
hear
chi
tect
ureofpr
edi
cti
ngf
act
orsi
mpact
ings
tudent
s
dur
ingE-
Lear
ning.

Fi
g4.
1Ar
chi
tect
uref
orpr
edi
cti
ngt
hef
act
orsaf
fect
ings
tudent
s

Fi
g4.
2.
1expl
ai
nsdet
ail
edar
chi
tect
urehow wepr
edi
ctt
heaccur
acyoft
hef
act
ors

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i
mpl
ement
ingt
hes
tudent
sdur
ingE-
Lear
ning.Theus
erwi
l
lgi
vet
hedat
aandt
hedat
ais
di
vi
dedi
ntot
rai
ni
ngandt
est
ingdat
aandt
het
rai
ni
ngdat
awi
l
lbet
rai
nedbyt
hemachi
ne
l
ear
ningmodel
sandt
het
rai
neddat
aist
est
edwi
tht
est
ingdat
aset
.Itpr
edi
ctswhet
hert
he
s
tudenti
sint
eres
tedt
owar
dsonl
i
nel
ear
ningornot
.
4.
3METHODOLOGY
4.
3.1LOGI
STI
CREGRESSI
ON
Logi
sti
c Regr
ess
ion i
s one oft
he bas
ic and popul
aral
gor
it
hms t
osol
vea
cl
ass
ifi
cat
ionpr
obl
em.
Iti
snamed‘
Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion’
becaus
eit
sunder
lyi
ngt
echni
quei
s
qui
tet
hes
ameasLi
nearRegr
ess
ion.Thet
erm“
Logi
sti
c”i
stakenf
rom t
heLogi
tfunct
ion
t
hati
sus
edi
nthi
smet
hodofcl
ass
ifi
cat
ion.

Logi
sti
cregr
ess
ioni
sas
uper
vis
edl
ear
ningcl
ass
ifi
cat
ional
gor
it
hm us
edt
opr
edi
ct
t
he pr
obabi
l
it
y ofa t
argetv
ari
abl
e.The nat
ure oft
argetordependentv
ari
abl
eis
di
chot
omous
,whi
chmeanst
her
ewoul
dbeonl
ytwopos
sibl
ecl
ass
es.

Fi
g4.
2Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ions
chemadi
agr
am

I
nsi
mpl
ewor
ds,
thedependentv
ari
abl
eisbi
nar
yinnat
urehav
ingdat
acodedasei
ther1

(
standsf
ors
ucces
s/y
es)or0(
standsf
orf
ail
ure/
no)
.

Mat
hemat
ical
l
y,al
ogi
sti
cregr
ess
ionmodel
predi
ctsP(
Y=1
)asaf
unct
ionofX.
Iti
sone
oft
hes
impl
estMLal
gor
it
hmst
hatcanbeus
edf
orv
ari
ouscl
ass
ifi
cat
ionpr
obl
emss
uchas
s
pamdet
ect
ion,
Diabet
espr
edi
cti
on,
cancerdet
ect
ionet
c.

Fr
omt
hef
ig4.
2wecans
ayt
hatl
ogi
sti
cregr
ess
iont
akest
hef
act
orst
hatar
egoi
ngt
o
caus
ethepr
obl
em ort
hef
act
ori
nthef
igt
hedependentv
ari
abl
esar
ew1
,w2,
w3,
w4whi
ch
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ar
e goi
ng t
o caus
e di
abet
icsher
ethe f
act
ort
hati
sdependentont
he v
ari
abl
esl
i
ke
w1
,w2,
w3,
w4 bas
ed ont
hos
evar
iabl
esorf
act
orswear
egoi
ng t
o concl
udet
hatt
he
r
espect
iv
eper
sonhast
hatf
act
or.
Thi
sty
peofcl
ass
ifi
cat
ionhel
psi
nthi
sres
ear
chpaperbycl
ass
ify
ingwhet
hert
hes
tudent
s
at
eimpact
edornotbycons
ider
ingt
her
equi
redf
act
orsi
ncl
ass
ify
ingt
hes
olut
ion.

4.
3.2NAI
VEBAYES
Naï
veBay
esal
gor
it
hm i
sas
uper
vis
edl
ear
ningal
gor
it
hm,whi
chi
sbas
edonBay
es
t
heor
em andus
edf
ors
olv
ingcl
ass
ifi
cat
ionpr
obl
ems
.Naï
veBay
esCl
ass
ifi
eri
soneoft
he
s
impl
eandmos
tef
fect
iv
eCl
ass
ifi
cat
ional
gor
it
hmswhi
chhel
psi
nbui
l
dingt
hef
astmachi
ne
l
ear
ningmodel
sthatcanmakequi
ckpr
edi
cti
ons
.

Naï
ve Bay
esal
gor
it
hmsi
sa cl
ass
ifi
cat
ion t
echni
que bas
ed on appl
yi
ng Bay
es’
t
heor
em wi
thas
trongas
sumpt
iont
hatal
lthepr
edi
ctor
sar
eindependentt
oeachot
her
.In
s
impl
ewor
ds,
theas
sumpt
ioni
sthatt
hepr
esenceofaf
eat
urei
nacl
assi
sindependentt
o
t
hepr
esenceofanyot
herf
eat
urei
nthes
amecl
ass
.

Forexampl
e,aphonemaybecons
ider
edass
mar
tifi
tishav
ingt
ouchs
creen,
i
nter
netf
aci
l
it
y,goodcamer
aet
c.Thoughal
lthes
efeat
uresar
edependentoneachot
her
,
t
heycont
ri
but
eindependent
lyt
othepr
obabi
l
it
yoft
hatt
hephonei
sas
mar
tphone.
4.
3.2.
1NAI
VEBAYESCLASSI
FIER
TheNai
veBay
escl
ass
ifi
eri
sol
atesi
nfor
mat
ioni
ntov
ari
ouscl
ass
esasi
ndi
cat
edby
t
he Bay
es Theor
em,al
ongs
ide t
he s
uppos
iti
on t
hatev
eryone oft
he i
ndi
cat
ors ar
e
aut
onomousofeachot
her
.Itaccept
sthatas
peci
fi
ccomponenti
nacl
assi
sn'
tident
if
ied
wi
tht
hepr
esenceofdi
ff
erenthi
ghl
i
ght
s.
Thi
sal
gor
it
hm i
squi
tepopul
arbecaus
eitcanev
enout
per
for
m hi
ghl
yadv
anced
cl
ass
ifi
cat
iont
echni
ques
.Mor
eov
er,
it
’squi
tes
impl
e,andy
oucanbui
l
ditqui
ckl
y.
Her
e’st
heBay
est
heor
em,
whi
chi
sthebas
isf
ort
hisal
gor
it
hm:
P(
c|x)=P(
x|c)P(
c)/
P(x)
I
nthi
sequat
ion,
‘c’
standsf
orcl
ass
,and‘
x’s
tandsf
orat
tr
ibut
es.
P(c/
x)s
tandsf
ort
he
pos
ter
iorpr
obabi
l
it
yofcl
assaccor
dingt
othepr
edi
ctor
.P(
x)i
sthepr
iorpr
obabi
l
it
yoft
he
pr
edi
ctor
,andP(
c)i
sthepr
iorpr
obabi
l
it
yoft
hecl
ass
.P(
x/c)s
howst
hepr
obabi
l
it
yoft
he
pr
edi
ctoraccor
dingt
othecl
ass
.

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Fi
g4.
3schemadi
agr
amf
orNai
veBay
es

f
ig4.
3showst
hatNai
veBay
escl
ass
ifi
erhel
psi
ncl
ass
ify
ingt
hegi
vendat
abas
edon
t
hegi
vendat
aandf
act
orsi
ti
sgoi
ngt
ospl
i
tthedat
aandgi
vest
hedes
iredout
put
.

4.
3.3RANDOMFORESTCLASSI
FIER
Random For
esti
sacl
ass
ifi
ert
hatcont
ainsanumberofdeci
si
ont
reesonv
ari
ous
s
ubs
etsoft
hegi
vendat
asetandt
akest
heav
eraget
oimpr
ovet
hepr
edi
cti
veaccur
acyof
t
hatdat
aset
.

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orsi
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Fi
g4.
3RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
er
Random f
ores
tcl
ass
ifi
eri
sapower
fult
ooli
nthemachi
nel
ear
ningl
i
brar
y.Wi
tht
his
cl
ass
ifi
er,
wewi
l
lbeabl
etogethi
gheraccur
acyandt
rai
ni
ngt
imes
houl
dbel
ess
.Ini
ti
al
ly
,we
hav
etobui
l
damodelandbys
pli
tt
ingv
ari
abl
esi
ntot
rai
ni
ngandt
ests
et.Af
ters
pli
tt
ingt
he
dat
a,t
rai
nthedependentv
ari
abl
esandpr
edi
ctt
her
espons
e.
RandomFor
estcl
ass
ifi
erdi
vi
dest
hegi
vendat
aseti
ntons
ubpoi
ntsandt
hedat
ais
s
entt
othedeci
si
ont
reecl
ass
ifi
eraf
tert
hedat
aiss
entdeci
si
ont
reecheckswhet
hert
he
gi
vendat
aiss
ati
sfy
ingt
hegi
vencondi
ti
oni
twi
l
lchecki
fits
ati
sfi
est
heni
twi
l
lgi
veones
et
s
etofout
putbas
edont
hef
act
or
i
fitdoes
n’ts
ati
sfi
est
heni
twi
l
lanot
hers
etofi
nst
ruct
ionsandout
put
.Now t
he
al
gor
it
hmwi
l
lcheckal
lt
her
emai
ni
ngdat
apoi
ntout
put
s.Theni
twi
l
lcheckt
hemaj
ori
tyoft
he
out
putwhi
chhast
hes
amev
aluebas
edont
hev
oti
ng.
Itwi
l
lpr
edi
ctt
hev
alue.
4.
3.4ANN
Ar
ti
fi
ci
alNeur
alnet
wor
ks(
ANN)orneur
alnet
wor
ksar
ecomput
ati
onal
algor
it
hms
.
Aneur
alnet
wor
kisamachi
nel
ear
ningal
gor
it
hm bas
edont
hemodelofahumanneur
on.
Thehumanbr
aincons
ist
sofmi
l
li
onsofneur
ons
.Its
endsandpr
oces
ssi
gnal
sint
hef
ormof
el
ect
ri
cal
andchemi
cal
signal
s.Thes
eneur
onsar
econnect
edwi
thas
peci
als
truct
ureknown
ass
ynaps
es.Sy
naps
esal
l
ow neur
onst
opas
ssi
gnal
s.Fr
om l
argenumber
sofs
imul
ated
neur
onsneur
alnet
wor
ksf
orms
.

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orsi
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AnAr
ti
fi
ci
alNeur
alNet
wor
kisani
nfor
mat
ionpr
oces
singt
echni
que.
Itwor
ksl
i
ket
he
wayhuman br
ainpr
oces
sesi
nfor
mat
ion.ANN i
ncl
udesal
arge numberofconnect
ed
pr
oces
singuni
tst
hatwor
ktoget
hert
opr
oces
sinf
ormat
ion.
Theyal
sogener
atemeani
ngf
ul
r
esul
tsf
romi
t.
We can appl
yNeur
alnet
wor
knotonl
yforcl
ass
ifi
cat
ion.I
tcan al
so appl
yfor
r
egr
ess
ionofcont
inuoust
argetat
tr
ibut
es.
Ar
ti
fi
ci
alNeu
ral
Net
wor
kLa
yer
s
I
nputl
ayer–
Theact
iv
it
yoft
hei
nputuni
tsr
epr
esent
sther
awi
nfor
mat
iont
hatcanf
eedi
nto
t
henet
wor
k.

Hiddenl
ayer–
Todet
ermi
net
heact
iv
it
yofeachhi
ddenuni
t.
Theact
iv
it
iesoft
hei
nputuni
ts
andt
hewei
ght
sont
heconnect
ionsbet
weent
hei
nputandt
hehi
ddenuni
ts.
Ther
emaybe
oneormor
ehi
ddenl
ayer
s.

Out
putl
ayer–
Thebehav
iouroft
heout
putuni
tsdependsont
heact
iv
it
yoft
hehi
ddenuni
ts
andt
hewei
ght
sbet
weent
hehi
ddenandout
putuni
ts.
4.
4SUMMARY
Thi
schapt
ers
ummar
izesaboutt
he pr
oces
sinv
olv
ed i
nident
if
ying t
he f
act
ors
i
mpact
ingons
tudent
s.I
tal
sodes
cri
besaboutt
hemet
hodol
ogi
esus
edf
orpr
edi
cti
ngt
he
f
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdur
ingE-
Lear
ning.
Ital
sos
howst
hear
chi
tect
uredi
agr
am of
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orsi
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t
hepr
oces
sandal
soexpl
ai
nst
hear
chi
tect
ureofmet
hodsus
ed.

CHAPTER5

RESULTSANDDI
SCUSSI
ON

5.
1PREAMBLE
I
nthepr
evi
ouschapt
er“
met
hodol
ogi
es”wehav
edi
scus
sedaboutt
hemet
hodsl
i
ke
Logi
ati
cRegr
ess
ion,Nai
veBay
es,Random For
estCl
ass
ifi
er,ANN whi
char
eus
edi
nour
pr
ojectt
ocl
ass
ifywhet
hert
hes
tudent
sar
eimpact
edornot
.Now i
nthi
schapt
erwewi
l
l
di
scus
saboutt
her
esul
tsobt
ainedf
orus
ingabov
emet
hodol
ogi
es.
5.
2RESULTS
Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ionachi
evesanaccur
acyof84%,Nai
veBay
esonVar
_smoot
hing
achi
evesanaccur
acyof81
%,RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
erachi
evesanaccur
acyof84%,
ANN
achi
evesanaccur
acyof81
%.
her
e we getRecal
l
,Pr
eci
si
on and F1
-scor
eval
uesf
ordi
ff
erentand t
hei
rval
uesar
e
cal
cul
atedbybel
owf
ormul
as
Recal
l
:Recal
li
sgi
venascor
rect
lycl
ass
ifi
eddat
adi
vi
dedbyt
otal
numberofcor
rect
ly

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orsi
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cl
ass
ifi
eddat
a.

TP
Recal
l= -
---
--Equ(
1)
TP+FN

F1
-scor
eisgi
venasahar
moni
cmeanbet
weenpr
eci
si
onandr
ecal
l
.

(
2*Preci
si
on*Recal
l)
F1-Scor
e= -
-Equ(
2)
Preci
si
on+Recall

Accur
acyi
sgi
vent
otal
numberofcor
rectcl
ass
ifi
cat
ionsondat
asetbyt
otal
clas
sif
icat
ionsi
n
dat
aset
.

TP+FN
Accur
acy= -
---
-Equ(
3)
TP+TN+FP+FN
5.
3CONFUSI
ONMATRI
X
Thebel
owt
abl
esar
etheConf
usi
onmat
ri
cesf
ort
hemodel
sLogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion,
Nai
veBay
es,
RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
erandANN.

TABLE5.
1:
CONFUSI
ONMATRI
XFORLOGI
STI
CREGRESSI
ON
Pr
edi
ctedcl
ass

Pos
iti
ve(
1) Negat
iv
e(0)

Pos
iti
ve(
1) TP=281 FN=5
Act
ual
class
Negat
iv
e(0 FP=49 TN=5
)

TABLE5.
2:CONFUSI
ONMATRI
XFORNAI
VEBAYES
Pr
edi
ctedcl
ass

Pos
iti
ve(
1) Negat
iv
e(0)

Pos
iti
ve(
1) TP=51 FN=235

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Act
ual Negat
iv
e(0) FP=7 TN=47
cl
ass

TABLE5.
3:CONFUSI
ONMATRI
XFORNAI
VEBAYESAFTERVAR_
SMOOTHI
NG
Pr
edi
ctedcl
ass

Pos
iti
ve(
1) Negat
iv
e(0)
Act
ual
Pos
iti
ve(
1) TP=276 FN=1
0
cl
ass
Negat
iv
e(0) FP=54 TN=0

TABLE5.
4:CONFUSI
ONMATRI
XFORRANDOMFORESTCLASSI
FIER
Pr
edi
ctedCl
ass

Pos
iti
ve(
1) Negat
iv
e(0)
Act
ual Pos
iti
ve(
1) TP=285 FN=1
cl
ass
Negat
iv
e(0) FP=52 TN=2

Fr
om t
he abov
e conf
usi
on mat
ri
x,one can der
ive Tr
ue Pos
iti
ve(
TP)
,Tr
ue
Negat
iv
e(TN)
,Fal
sePos
iti
ve(
FP)
,Fal
seNegat
iv
e(FN)whi
chcanbeunder
stoodf
rom t
he
bel
owf
igur
e.

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Fi
g5.
1:
Conf
usi
onMat
ri
xTempl
ate

5.
4DI
SCUSSI
ON
Asexpect
edLogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ionandRandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
ermodel
sshows
hi
ghes
tPr
eci
son,
Recal
l
,F1
-scor
eandAccur
acyv
aluescompar
edt
oremai
ni
ngmodel
s.
TABLE5.
5:COMPARI
SONOFPRECI
SION,
RECALL&F1
-SCORE

Al
gor
it
hm Pr
eci
si
on r
ecal
l F1
-scor
e

Logi
sti
cregr
ess
ion 0.
85 0.
98 0.
91

Nai
veBay
es 0.
88 0.
18 0.
3

Nai
ve 0.
84 0.
97 0.
9
Bay
es(
var
_smoot
hing)

RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
er 0.
85 1 0.
91

ANN 0.
85 0.
93 0.
89

Thef
oll
owi
ngbargr
aphr
epr
esent
sthePr
eci
si
on,
Recal
landF1
-Scor
eval
uesof
Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion,
RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
er,
Nai
veBay
esandANN.

BAR-
PLOTFORTABLE5.
5:

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orsi
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9

Fi
g5.
2:Barchar
tforPr
eci
si
on,
Recal
lAndF1
-Scor
e
Asexpect
edLogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion,
RandomFor
estcl
ass
ifi
erhasobt
ainedhi
gh
accur
acyv
alueswhencompar
edt
oot
herMLmodel
s

Tabl
e5.
6:Accur
acyv
aluesf
orf
oll
owi
ngal
gor
it
hms
ALGORI
THM ACCURACY

Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion 0.
84

Nai
veBay
es 0.
29

Nai
ve 0.
81
Bay
es(
var
_smoot
hing)

RandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
er 0.
84

ANN 0.
81

Thef
oll
owi
ngBarGr
aphi
stheAccur
acyv
aluesf
orLogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ion,
Random
For
estCl
ass
ifi
er,
Nai
veBay
es,
ANN.

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orsi
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ings
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D-1
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Fi
g5.
3BarChar
tforAccur
acy
5.
5SUMMARY
Thi
schapt
ers
ummar
izesaboutt
her
esul
tspr
oducedbyus
ingdi
ff
erentmet
hodsof
t
rans
ferl
ear
ning.Weal
sodi
scus
sedaboutt
hepar
amet
ersandaccur
aci
esoft
hemodel
s.
Conf
usi
onmat
ri
xisal
sos
howni
ntabl
es.
Acompar
isont
abl
eandbarchar
tar
eal
sogi
venf
or
bet
terunder
standi
ngofr
esul
t.
Final
l
yaf
teri
mpl
ement
ingt
hef
ourmet
hods
,iti
spr
ovent
hat
Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ionandRandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
ergi
venmor
eaccur
acyt
hanr
emai
ni
ngt
wo
model
s.Byus
ingt
hist
echni
quewecanpr
edi
ctwhet
hert
hes
tudent
sar
eimpact
edornot
.

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orsi
mpact
ings
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ingCOVI
D-1
9

CHAPTER6
CONCLUSI
ONANDFUTUREENHANCEMENTS
Thi
spaperconcent
rat
esonpr
edi
cti
ngt
hef
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdur
ingCOVI
D-1
9
duet
oE-
Lear
ning.
Thef
undament
alcaus
eist
ofi
ndt
hef
act
orsi
mpact
ingons
tudent
sdue
t
oE-
Lear
ningwhi
chhel
psi
nsol
vi
ngt
hepr
obl
em s
othats
tudent
scanr
educes
tres
sand
anxi
ety
.weappl
i
edt
hebes
tmachi
nel
ear
ningal
gor
it
hmsf
orpr
edi
cti
ngt
hef
act
orsi
mpact
ing
s
tudent
s due t
o cov
id-
19.Thes
e al
gor
it
hms gener
ate bet
teraccur
acy v
alues when
compar
edt
opr
evi
ous
lyci
tedr
esear
chpaper
s.Logi
sti
cRegr
ess
ionachi
evesanaccur
acyof
84%,Nai
ve Bay
es on Var
_smoot
hing achi
evesan accur
acyof81
%,Random For
est
Cl
ass
ifi
erachi
evesanaccur
acyof84%,ANN achi
evesanaccur
acyof81
%.wehav
e
obs
erv
edt
hatl
ogi
sti
cRegr
ess
ionandRandomFor
estCl
ass
ifi
erhav
ebet
teraccur
acywhen
compar
edt
onai
veBay
esandANNal
gor
it
hms
.

I
nthi
sPaperweus
edt
hedat
asetofhi
ghereducat
ions
tudent
sfori
mpl
ement
ing.
Fort
hef
utur
eenhancementoft
hispr
ojectt
hes
amei
deacanbei
mpl
ement
edont
he
di
ff
erentagesofpeopl
ewhoar
eus
ingE-
Lear
ningwhi
chwi
l
lbehugebenef
itf
orchi
l
dren
andEducat
ionFi
el
d

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orsi
mpact
ings
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ingCOVI
D-1
9

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