Porque se requiere una herramienta de toma de decisiones especifica para la

formulación de polı́ticas publicas para este sector?

Porque es necesario incluir los aspectos ambientales y sociales dentro de la

formulación?

REVISAR ESTOS AUTORES (ARTICULO 16) System-dynamics approach

has been widely used for studying the evolution of vehicle fleets (e.g. Janssen et
al., 2006; Struben & Sterman, 2008; Leaver et al., 2009; Meyer & Winebrake,
2009; Leaver & Gillingham, 2010; Park et al., 2011; Shepherd et al., 2012; Shafiei
et al., 2013).

• Why do I want to simulate a sustainable policy for vehicular fleet com-

position with environmental and social constraints? Global context in-
cluded
– Article No. 1:
∗ Increasing the security of energy supply for transportation and
reducing environmental emissions from vehicles are recognized
as the great challenges of the twenty-first century It implies that
the transition to a sustainable transportation system would be
an essential plan during the next decades.
∗ This process is not just a matter of technological change and
broader changes are needed in economy, culture, consumers’ be-
haviours, institutions and new infrastructures. Transition to-
wards a more sustainable mobility system entails the successful
development, diffusion and adoption of both improved conven-
tional internal combustion engines (ICEs) and alternative fuel
vehicles (AFVs).
– Article No.2 :
∗ Low efficient cars,dependence on fossil fuels and emissions of pol-
lutants and greenhouse gases(GHG) are some of the serious chal-
lenges passenger car transport is facing today.
∗ Eventhough efficiency of cars has improved in the last years,
GHG emissions of the entire fleet kept growing in Austria.
∗ Emissions of some pollutants could be reduced in the last years(e.g.
CO and SO2 ) while others, e.g. particular matter and nitrogen
oxides, are still a major issue.
∗ There are legitimate expectations that alternative vehicle propul-
sion technologies together with alternative fuels could alleviate
these problems.
– Article No. 5
∗ The biofuels have been considered as the most sustainable option
to replace conventional energy sources, mainly by its renewable

1
 condition. However, some works have shown that the integral
performance of the biofuels supply chain is not completely clear.
∗ There are some concerns such as climate change, food security
and economic performance are still discussed in several contexts
today.
– Article No. 6
∗ Driven by the necessity to reduce oil dependence, address the
imperative needs for energy security and mitigate the greenhouse
effect and climate change on a global level, various promising
ideas and activities for fuel substitution in the transportation
sector have seriously been investigated during the last years.
∗ The extent of the involvement of each one of the previously men-
tioned sectors (Biofuel SC) is the result of strategic and opera-
tional planning of the whole supply chain and, in the general
case, determines the efficiency of the biofuels sector. Taking also
into account the very rapidly changing opinions related to the
environmental behaviour of the whole biofuels supply chain, it
becomes very clear that the parameters in the sector are contin-
uously changing. Therefore, the consideration of an integrated
supply chain appropriately modelled is believed to be very crit-
ical and could result in the optimal solution per case, economi-
cally and/or environmentally speaking.
∗ Additionally, the public opposition that has risen relative to bio-
fuels’ sustainability throughout their Life Cycle, reinforced by
the food versus fuel debate caused a major push back in biofuels
policy and rendered a new challenge to face.
– Article No. 8
∗ The consumption of petrol and diesel derived from crude oil
is problematic due to costs, insecurity supply, greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, and air pollution. Many potential renew-
able alternatives are expensive and, with exception of ethanol
only price-competitive when subsidised. Moreover, sustainable
production biofuels is constrained by impacts on natural habi-
tats, food security, ecology and water consumption. Alternative
sources of fossil fuels, such as coal to liquids (CTL), gas to liq-
uids (GTL), tar sands, and oil shale, are also expensive and in
general produce more GHG emissions than oil-derived fuels.
∗ How to transition from the current fuels to low-cost, low-carbon
alternatives is unclear because of the problems in reconciling
the multiple goals of price restraint, ensuring security and emis-
sions reductions. The focus is now on moving away from vision-
ary, large-scale systems implementations (such as the ?hydro-
gen economy?) to more short-term incremental strategies. This
draws on the notion that a gradual transition, that builds on

2
 existing infrastructure and technology, especially cars, is more
feasible.
– Article No. 13
∗ The transition process toward a carbon-neutral renewable based
transport sector is one of the major challenges in design of 100%
renewable energy systems. This process is not just a matter of
technological change and, hence broader changes are required in
the economy, consumers’ behaviors, and infrastructure develop-
ment.
∗ To achieve a carbon-neutral transport sector, radical changes
both at supply and demand sides of the integrated energy-transport
system are required. These changes will have significant implica-
tions for energy-economic systems and alternative fuel markets.
∗ There is no single solution for the implementation of a carbon-
neutral transport sector. Hydrogen, electricity, and biofuels are
promising candidates that can be produced from renewable en-
ergy sources in Iceland.
– Article 16 (conference)
∗ The transition towards alternative fuel system is a complex pro-
cess and requires effective interactions among multiple stakehold-
ers. This process can be described by a set of nonlinear and
complex equations. Nonlinearities, multiple feedback loops and
time delays produce unexpected system behaviors over time.
∗ Thus, the formulation of effective policies to support the tran-
sition process requires a comprehensive analytical tool, enabling
us to evaluate the interactions among energy markets, infrastruc-
tures and vehicle fleets.
∗ The analytical models should represent the dynamic equilibrium
throughout time and contain endogenous representation of sup-
ply and demand for various fuels.
– Article 18
∗ The goal of the European Union’s (EU) sustainable transport
policy is to ensure that the transport system meets the economic,
social and environmental needs of society (EU, 2011).
∗ Road transport plays an important role in this context and it
covers a significant proportion of the European transport needs
as described in detail in Pasaoglu et al. (2012).
∗ Due to factors such as globalisation, changing customer needs
and economic and environmental pressures, the European road
transport sector is continually undergoing transformations, in-
cluding technology transitions. Within wider carbon reduction
targets, the EC set out in the White Paper on Transport a tar-
get of reducing transport GHG emissions by 60% of 1990 level
by 2050 (EU, 2011).

3
 ∗ Recent European policy initiatives targeting the decarbonisation
of road transport, which contributes about a fifth of total EU
emissions (EEA, 2014a), are directed towards
· enforcing CO2 reductions on a fleet level for all vehicles (EC,
2009d, 2011b, 2014b; EC, 2009a, EC, 2011a),
· reducing the carbon intensity of the fuel mix and energy
supply (EC, 2009b, EC, 2009a),
· supporting research, development and demonstration (R, D
& D) (Zubaryeva and Thiel, 2013; EEA, 2014a) and promo-
tion (EC, 2009c) of alternative technologies,
· the provision of consumer information on fuel efficiency and
CO2 emissions (EC, 1999) and
· fostering the deployment of the infrastructure necessary for
alternatively fuelled vehicles (EU, 2014).
∗ These actions are supplemented by demand-side measures in
the Member States, such as scrappage schemes and reduction of
taxes on low CO2 cars to stimulate alternative vehicle purchases
by customers.
– Article 19
∗ Biofuels have been recognized as low-carbon alternative fuels
that can replace fossil fuels in the short- to medium-term with-
out major changes in the conventional existing infrastructure and
vehicle fleets
∗ Biofuels based on waste resources and biomass residues are of
specific interest due to economic and environmental advantages
such as rural development, less land requirement , waste man-
agement, and the use of local potential
∗ Nevertheless, the limited biomass resource potential in some re-
gions/ countries, low efficiencies , uncertainties in the cost of dis-
tributed biomass feedstock, and supply chain complexities may
restrict their market development.
– Article 22
∗ Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have many potential
advantages over conventional vehicles, but it is not clear what
combinations of policies will be most cost-effective in promoting
successful market penetration of this new vehicle technology.
– Article 23
∗ In response to oil shortages, air pollution and climate change,
an increasing number of governments have begun to set goals for
energy savings and emission reductions (Zhang etal.,2014, 2011a,
2011b; USEPA,2012).
∗ More than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities.
What is more, their Greenhouse Gas(GHG) emissions accounted

4
 for more than80% of the world’s total GHG emissions (Fenge-
tal.,2013).
∗ Currently, there are many researchers interested in urban trans-
port energy conservation and emissions reduction measures (AASHTO,
2009; RossMorrowetal.,2010; Grossetal.,2009;Seckin etal.,2013).
∗ Substantially,these measures can be divided into two categories:
· a clean vehicles strategy, which reduces energy consumption
and emissions of vehicles or other automotive devices per
kilometer using related technical improvements for vehicles
or fuel;
· and a mobility management strategy, which reduces traffic
volume through a variety of measures. This one will be
excluded from the dissertation
· However, there have been many debates regarding which strat-
egy is optimal overall. Researchers who support a clean vehi-
cles strategy usually think that mobility management is diffi-
cult to implement because there is great uncertainty and the
potential for great harm to residents’ utility and the urban
economy (CoxandMoore,2011; Hartgen etal.,2011; McKin-
sey,2007; Moore etal.,2010). Others who support a mobility
management strategy argue that the effect of mobility man-
agement on energy conservation and emissions reduction is
more economical and efficient (TRB, 2009; USDOT, 2010;
Gross etal.,2009).
– Article 26
∗ In order to advance the inter-/cross-/trans-disciplinary notions of
industrial ecology, ecological/ evolutionary economics, biophysical/thermo-
economics, sustainability science and engineering in confronting
development-related issues (e.g., global warming, energy secu-
rity, rural and developing countries? development, poverty, etc.),
we need to develop transformative, life cycle, systems-oriented
thinking frameworks, tools and methods to support policy and
regulation formulation as well as for corporate decision making.
The urgency in developing these integrative tools and methods
to support policies, regulations and practices for sustainable de-
velopment both at national and international levels have been
stressed in various sustainability-related studies [1-6].
∗ However, there are significant computational challenges in inte-
grated sustainability assessment (ISA) for design of policies, reg-
ulations and practices for sustainable development [1,9]. These
fall into the realm of computing and information science (e.g., op-
timization, data mining & analysis, artificial intelligence, dynam-
ical models, etc.). An integrated systems modelling belongs to
the emerging field of computational and quantitative sustainabil-
ity. Computational sustainability (CS) aims to apply techniques

5
from computer and information science (e.g., cloud computing)
and related disciplines (e.g., operations research, management
science) to the balancing of environmental, economic, and soci-
etal needs, in pursuit of sustainable development [10-12].