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6.3 Political and Monetary Union
6.3 Political and Monetary Union
robust — most significantly the first two noted previously. Others are less so.50 On
the other hand, by using the same model, we are able to make consistent comparisons
that are not otherwise possible because the existing literature uses a variety of
models.
An additional reason for placing less emphasis on particular quantitative results is
that we use a linear approximation to the model around a nonstochastic steady state.
Chari, Christiano, and Kehoe (1995) provide examples of inaccuracies that can arise
when doing so. Albanesi (2003) argues that concerns about the methods we use can
be more serious because of the unit roots or near unit roots in the responses of key
var- iable to shocks. On the other hand, both Benigno and Woodford (2006) and
Schmitt- Grohe and Uribe (2004a) find that their log-linear approximations do not
suffer from accuracy problems. Benigno and Woodford (2006) examine the model
considered by Chari et al. (1995). They find that the numerical results they obtain
using their lin- ear-quadratic methods are quite close to those Chari et al. (1995)
report based on more computationally intensive projection methods, but substantially
different from those Chari et al. (1995) report based on log- linearization. Schmitt-
Grohe and Uribe (2004a) address accuracy concerns by comparing the moments
computed from exact solution of their model with flexible prices to those computed
from a log-linear approximation. They find the differences are small, except that the
approximate solu- tion produces an inflation volatility that is about one percentage
point too low. They cannot compute the exact solution of their model when prices are
sticky but they com- pare the moments computed from a first-order approximation to
the model with those computed from a second-order approximation in samples of 100
years. They argue that if the unit root behavior is a serious problem and over 100
years variables wander far from the point around which the model is approximated,
then the errors are likely to be considerably larger in the moments computed from
the second-order approxima- tion. They find the results from the first- and second-
order approximations are very close. Our reason for reporting moments computed
from simulated samples of 200 quarterly observations is the hope of mitigating these
problems.
We begin by considering the optimal choice of inflation and the tax rate on wage
income when profits are fully taxed. The implications for optimal inflation and
interest rates are summarized in Table 3 and Figures 7A and B. Not surprisingly, the
Friedman rule is optimal when prices are flexible. The nominal interest rate is zero in
every period so that both the average interest rate and its volatility are zero. Average
inflation is approximately -1% per quarter, which is approximately minus one times
the real interest rate (gross inflation in the nonstochastic steady state is equal to b).
Unexpected
50
For example, the incentive to use inflation to tax profits is robust, but the magnitude of steady-state inflation is not.
We find positive inflation is optimal when profits are less than fully taxed. Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2004b) find
that nominal interest rates are positive but that deflation (albeit less deflation than under the Friedman rule) is
optimal unless the elasticity of substitution between the intermediate goods is lower than our benchmark value.
When we consider a model similar to theirs, we replicate their results.
The Politics of Monetary Policy
1045
52
See Alesina and Perotti (2004) for a critical view of the process of European Unification. Issing (2010) also noted
how the euro will have to live without a political union behind it.
53
Ireland, for instance, at the onset of the crisis introduced emergency banking policies that negatively affected British
Banks.
54
See Alesina, Ardagna, and Galasso (2010) for a recent discussion of the effect of the euro adoption on labor and good
market reforms.
55
On these issues see Alesina and Perotti (2004) and several essays in Alesina and Giavazzi (2010).