Economics of Climate Resilient Development

Module 2: How to Adapt Framework Overview

Step 2: Identify Climate Risks and Impacts

Identifying Current Climate Variability, Future Climate Change, Impacts and

Vulnerability
Climate A. Current B. Predicted C. Vulnerability C. Likely
variables/ climate future climate (e.g. sectors, Impacts on
parameter variability* changes regions, Development
communities) Goals
Temperature • Temperature • Rise of 2-4oC • Agriculture, Reduction in
(variation and stresses on in highland health, agricultural yields
mean values) crops area by 2050 biodiversity & productivity
• Increasing • Rise of 1-2oC • Highland impacting:
number of hot in the lowland areas
days per year plains • Agricultural
self
sufficiency
goal
Annual • Above • Reduction in • Agriculture, Changes to
precipitation average annual health hydrological
(changes in annual rainfall precipitation of • Farming balance
between 2 and communities
intensity, impacting:
5% in X
timing and • 100% access
province
spatial to drinking
distribution) water goal
• agricultural
self
sufficiency
goal
Seasonal • Variable • Increase in • Agriculture • As above
precipitation rainfall variability of • Farming
• Highly precipitation communities
seasonal in X
rainfall province
• Heavy rainfall
in short
periods of
time

Sea level • Coastal • Rise in sea • Infrastructur Stalinization of

flooding, level of 0.3m e & services, irrigation water,
storm surges by 2050 fisheries drinking and crop
• Submergence • Coastal damage
of 10% of X province of
river delta • 100% access
X and Y
to drinking
water goal
• agricultural
self
sufficiency
 Economics of Climate Resilient Development
Module 2: How to Adapt Framework Overview
Step 2: Identify Climate Risks and Impacts

Climate A. Current B. Predicted C. Vulnerability C. Likely

variables/ climate future climate (e.g. sectors, Impacts on
parameter variability* changes regions, Development
communities) Goals
goal
Water runoff • Snow melt • High reservoir • Natural Changes to
& evaporation run-off earlier evaporation resources, hydrological
and changes • More variable losses health & balance
river flows • Recharge to agriculture
in water impacting:
• Reduced shallow • Riverine
storage surface water groundwater • 100% access
communities
stores reduced by 10- to drinking
, farmers,
15% by 2050 water goal
pastoralists
• Coastal • agricultural
•
aquifers more self
saline sufficiency
goal
Extreme • Increase • Projected • Infrastructur Damage to
events frequency/ increase in e, services, infrastructure and
(frequency, magnitude heavy rainfall agriculture, services will
contributing to health,
intensity and indirectly impact
increase in fisheries,
duration) e.g. local flooding and flooding/
tourism
droughts, Cyclone • Coastal drought will
floods, maximum wind communities directly impact:
tropical speed likely to • Groups • 100% access
storms increase whose to drinking
impacts livelihoods water goal
• Droughts will depend on • agricultural
intensify coastal self
resources sufficiency
goal
•
Length of • Etc. • Etc. • Etc. • Etc.
growing
season,
number of
consecutive
dry days etc.
Ø TIP: this tool can be used for a region, country or sector