1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting

This is a timed quiz. 

1. A seasonal index of ________ indicates that the season is average.

(1 Point)

0.5

10

None

2. Four components of time series are trend, moving average, exponential

smoothing, and seasonality.
(2 Points)

True

False

3. Demand for Y is shown in the table. What is the slope of the appropriate trend
equation?

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Y 28 42 49 74 78 93 115 129

(3 Points)

11.28

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1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

14.38

5.48

2.88

None

4. Scatter diagrams can be useful in spotting trends or cycles in data over time.
(2 Points)

True

False

5. The tracking signal is the running sum of the forecast errors divided by the
(2 Points)

MSE

RSFE

MAD

Bias

None

6. The following table shows the number of pies consumed by the deans' suite
during a monthly pie-eating contest. What is the forecast bias?

Month January February March April May June July

Forecast # Pies 18 20 23 29 37 44 50

Actual # Pies 15 18 26 31 34 39 45
(2 Points)

-1.04

1.86

1.04

-1.86

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1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

None

7. The most common quantitative causal model is regression analysis.

(2 Points)

True

False

8. In picking the smoothing constant for an exponential smoothing model, we

should look for a value that
(2 Points)

produces a nice-looking curve.

equals the utility level that matches with our degree of risk aversion.

causes the least computational effort.

produces values which compare well with actual values based on a standard measure of
error.

9. A seasonal index must be between -1 and +1.

(2 Points)

True

False

10. A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts. This
tracking signal was positive. This would indicate that
(2 Points)

demand is greater than the forecast.

the MAD is negative.

demand is less than the forecast.

demand is equal to the forecast.

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1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

None

11. The following table shows the number of pies consumed by the deans' suite
during a monthly pie-eating contest. What is the forecast tracking signal for
June?

Month January February March April May June July

Forecast # Pies 18 20 23 29 37 44 50

Actual # Pies 15 18 26 31 34 39 45

(3 Points)

-2.67

0.75

-0.75

2.67

None

12. The following table represents the new members that have been acquired by a
fitness center.

Month Jan Feb March April

New members 45 60 57 65

Assuming α = 0.3, β = 0.4, an initial forecast of 40 for January, and an initial

trend adjustment of 0 for January, use exponential smoothing with trend
adjustment to come up with a forecast for May on new members.

(2 Points)

58.57

55.81

52.25

63.23

None

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1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

13. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) is simply the sum of forecast errors.
(2 Points)

True

False

14. A graphical plot with sales on the Y axis and time on the X axis is a
(2 Points)

scatter diagram

line graph

radar chart

trend projection

None

15. Time series models extrapolate historical data from the variable of interest.
(2 Points)

True

False

16. Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods
with large forecast errors?
(2 Points)

MSE

MAPE

MAD

Decomposition

None

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17. Demand for Y is shown in the table. What is the intercept of the appropriate
trend equation?

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Y 28 42 49 74 78 93 115 129

(3 Points)

5.48

2.88

11.28

14.38

None

18. Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. What is the
MAPE?

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Y 28 42 49 74 78 93 115 129

Forecast 25.667 40.047 54.429 68.809 83.19 97.571 111.952

126.333

(3 Points)

6.12%

5.92%

6.02%

6.22%

None

19. When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naïve forecasting
model?
(2 Points)

α = 0.5

α=1

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1/21/22, 5:59 PM QA, F21, Quiz 3, Forecasting (UCP-AFMT1003-A-FOMS, F21)

never

α=0

20. As one increases the number of periods used in the calculation of a moving
average
(2 Points)

greater emphasis is placed on more recent data.

it requires a computer to automate the calculations.

the emphasis placed on more recent data remains the same.

less emphasis is placed on more recent data.

None

21. Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, the
MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7.
We can then say
(2 Points)

method two is the least preferred.

the third method is the best.

the second method is the best.

We cannot make a determination as to which method is best.

None

22. Demand for Y is shown in the table.

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Y 28 42 49 74 78 93 115 129

Develop a forecast using a trend line. What is the forecast for period 10?

(3 Points)

151.7

157.3
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153.9

155.1

None

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