CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: RENACCI DONORS

FROM: TONY FABRIZIO, DAVID LEE, & TRAVIS TUNIS

RE: RENACCI LEADS DEWINE IN GOP GOVERNOR’S PRIMARY; DEWINE’S

RATINGS UNDERWATER

DATE: JANUARY 20, 2022

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates recently completed a survey of n=800 likely 2022 Republican Primary
voters (RPV) in Ohio (See methodology statement and key demographics on last page). We found
that Gov. Mike DeWine’s key ratings are underwater with these RPV’s and are ready for someone
new, specifically Jim Renacci, who is well liked and leads DeWine in the Republican primary ballot
for Governor.

Not Surprisingly, Ohio RPV Strongly Approve of Trump and Disapprove of Biden

9-in-10 Ohio RPV disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, including 85% who
strongly disapprove. Conversely, 89% of these same voters approve of the job President Trump
did, with 70% strongly approving. In no uncertain terms, Ohio GOP primary voters will vote for
someone who stands firmly with Donald Trump and against Joe Biden.

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job

[Joe Biden is doing/Donald Trump did] as President?
Biden Trump
TOTAL APPROVE 8 89
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 90 10
Strongly approve 2 70
Somewhat approve 6 19
Somewhat disapprove 5 3
Strongly disapprove 85 8
DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1 1

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DeWine Image Underwater with a Majority Unfavorable, while Renacci has Better than 2-to-1
Favorables

Most Ohio RPV have a negative opinion of Mike DeWine, with only 44% viewing him favorably
and 52% unfavorably, including 33% who have a very unfavorable opinion of the incumbent
Governor. On the other hand, Jim Renacci is viewed favorably by a 40%-18% margin. While he is
undefined to 42%, Ohio RPV with an opinion of Renacci cleary feel positive toward him.

Now I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of each person? If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person,
just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
TOTAL TOTAL
Very Smwt Smwt Very No Never
FAVOR- UNFAVOR-
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opin Heard Of
ABLE ABLE
Mike DeWine 44 52 17 27 19 33 3 1
Jim Renacci 40 18 14 26 10 8 23 19

Most Plan to Vote Against DeWine and they are Mixed on his Job Performance

Despite being in the same party, Ohio GOP primary voters are not thrilled with how Mike DeWine
is performing as Governor. They are statistically split, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving.
Ohio RPV are more likely to strongly disapprove (28%) than strongly approve (16%). DeWine’s
negative image and mixed job approval causes a 50% majority to say they’ll vote against him,
while only 32% will vote to re-elect DeWine. The remaining 18% are unsure, but he is in trouble.

Generally speaking, do you Which of following statements regarding Mike DeWine

approve or disapprove of the comes CLOSEST to your current vote intentions?
job Mike DeWine is doing as TOTAL RE-ELECT 32
Governor? TOTAL VOTE AGAINST 50
TOTAL APPROVE 48
TOTAL I will DEFINITELY vote to re-elect Mike DeWine for
49 Governor, regardless of who runs against him in 14
DISAPPROVE
Strongly approve 16 the Republican primary.
Somewhat approve 33 I will PROBABLY vote to re-elect Mike DeWine for
Somewhat Governor, but it depends on who runs against him 18
22
disapprove
Strongly disapprove 28 in the Republican primary.
DK/Refused (DO I am UNSURE how I will vote in the Republican
2 18
NOT READ) primary at this point.
I will PROBABLY vote against Mike DeWine for
Governor, but it depends on who runs against him 17
in the Republican primary.
I will DEFINITELY vote against Mike DeWine for
Governor regardless of who runs against him in 33
the Republican primary.
DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1

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Despite Lower Name I.D., Renacci has a Sizeable Lead over DeWine in the Gov. Primary

Jim Renacci is undefined to 42% of Ohio RPV, but he still leads the near universally-known Mike
DeWine, 46% - 38%, in the GOP gubernatorial primary ballot. Renacci would only need to pick up
a small portion of the undecideds (16%) to break the 50% mark. Jim Renacci is clearly in command
of this race and his lead will only grow as he becomes more well-known.

If the Republican Primary election for Governor were

held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Mike
DeWine and Jim Renacci, for whom would you vote? IF
UNDECIDED, ASK: And if you had to choose today,
which candidate are you leaning toward (ROTATE)
Mike DeWine or Jim Renacci?
TOTAL RENACCI 46
TOTAL DeWINE 38
Definitely Renacci 22
Probably Renacci 19
Lean toward Renacci 5
Lean toward DeWine 2
Probably DeWine 16
Definitely DeWine 20
Firmly Undecided 16

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METHODOLOGY STATEMENT: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 800 likely 2022
Republican primary voters from January 11 – 13th, 2022 in Ohio. The interviews were split 35%
cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the cell and landline
phone portion. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent Republican primary
elections. Gender, age, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity were matched to demographic
profiles of likely voters based on the voter file, exit polls, and state data. Respondents were
randomly selected from lists of known Republican primary voters and new registrants since the
2020 Republican primary election. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 800
voters is ±3.46%.

KEY DEMOGRAPHICS

Race/Ethnicity Party Affiliation

White 93% Republican 76%

African American/Black 2% Democrat 1%
Latino/Hispanic 1% Independent 18%
Asian American 1% Other (VOLUNTEERED) 5%
Other (DO NOT READ) 2% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) <1%
Refused (DO NOT READ) <1%
Gender
Age
MALE 50%
18-44 18% FEMALE 50%
45-54 16% Female, working outside the home 28%
55-64 26% Female, homemaker 22%
65-74 26% Female/Refused 1%
75+ 14%
Refused (DO NOT READ) <1% DMA

Ideology Cleveland-Akron (Canton) 30%

Columbus 21%
CONSERVATIVE 80% Cincinnati 15%
MODERATE 17% Dayton 13%
LIBERAL 2% Toledo 8%
Very conservative 51% Youngstown 4%
Somewhat conservative 29% Charleston-Huntington, WV 3%
Somewhat liberal 2% Lima 3%
Very liberal <1% Wheeling, WV-Stuebenville 2%
DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1% Zanesville 1%
Parkersburg, WV 1%
Ft. Wayne, IN 1%

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