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The IPCC's Fifth Assessment: What's in It For Latin America?
The IPCC's Fifth Assessment: What's in It For Latin America?
IPCC’s Fifth
Assessment
Report
What’s in it for
Latin America?
Executive Summary
Cover image:
Amazon family | Daniel Rosenberg
The IPCC’s Fifth
Assessment Report
offers the following key
messages for Latin America
1 2 3
4 5 6
7 8 9
Some low-carbon Latin America stands International cooperation
development options may to benefit from further is vital to avert dangerous
be less costly in the long integration of climate climate change and Latin
run and could offer new adaptation, mitigation and American governments
economic opportunities development approaches can promote ambitious
for Latin America global action
Latin America’s climate is already changing The IPCC finds with 95% scientific certainty (Box 1) that
and the impacts are already being felt increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere due to human activities have been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
mid-20th century.6 Current science provides the clearest
on Climate Change (IPCC) finds, beyond reasonable doubt
evidence yet that human activity is changing our climate.7
that the Earth’s climate is warming.2 Since the 1950s, the rate
of global warming has been unprecedented compared to The impacts of climate change will affect water availability,
previous decades and millennia. food production and quality and the incidence of vector-
borne diseases in Latin America.8 The following pages
The Fifth Assessment Report presents a long list of changes
explore these risks in more depth.
that scientists have observed around the world. Since the
mid-19th century, the average increase in the temperature Given the interdependence among countries in today’s
of the Earth’s surface has been 0.85 degrees Centigrade (°C).3 world, the impacts of climate change on resources or
commodities in one place will have far-reaching effects
Globally, sea levels have risen faster than at any time
on prices, supply chains, trade, investment and political
during the previous two millennia.4 In many parts of the
relations in other places. Thus, climate change will
world, including Latin America, changing rainfall is altering
progressively threaten and economic growth9 and human
freshwater systems, affecting the quality and quantity of
security10 in complex ways, in this region and across
water available.5
the world.
Box 1: How the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report defines scientific certainty11
The IPCC assigns a degree of certainty to each key finding Virtually certain 99% or more
based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of Extremely likely 95% or more
evidence (e.g., data, theory, models, expert judgment), and Very likely 90% or more
the degree of agreement among scientists. The terms to Likely 66% or more
describe evidence are: limited, medium or robust; and to More likely than not more than 50%
describe agreement: low, medium or high. About as likely as not 33–66%
Unlikely 33% or less
When the Fifth Assessment Report talks about ‘confidence’ in a
Very unlikely 10% or less
finding, the level of confidence derives from a synthesis of the
Extremely unlikely 5% or less
evidence that exists and the degree of scientific agreement
Exceptionally unlikely 1% or less
on what the evidence means. The levels of confidence IPCC
assigns are: very low, low, medium, high and very high. On this scale, the world’s leading climate scientists consider
it extremely likely that human activities have been the
IPCC describes the likelihood or certainty of an outcome
dominant cause of observed warming. Scientists consider
having occurred or occurring in the future in terms
95% confidence as the ‘gold standard’, the standard at which
of percentages:
theories are accepted as valid. For example, the theory of
evolution, the theory on the age of the Earth and the Big
Bang theory all meet this standard of scientific confidence.
Figure 1: Change in annual average temperature Figure 2: Change in annual average rainfall in Latin
in Latin America, 1901–201216 America, 1951–201017
Observed effects of climate change. In recent decades, Changes in weather and climatic patterns are negatively
changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and affecting human health in Latin America, with by increasing
human systems on all continents and across the oceans, morbidity, mortality and disabilities (high confidence), and
including Latin America.18 The figure below lists the through the emergence of diseases in new areas (high
observed impacts for Latin America that can be attributed confidence).22
to climate change, and the confidence in this causal link
Latin America houses the world’s largest biological
between climate and impacts.
diversity and wilderness areas, including the Amazon basin.
Latin America is a region with abundant freshwater Conversion of natural ecosystems is the main cause of
resources, but these are unevenly distributed. Existing biodiversity and ecosystem loss in the region, and is the
resources are very important for urban water supply, for the second biggest driver of human-induced climate change
agriculture practiced by the hundreds of millions of people (high confidence) accounting for 17–20% of total greenhouse
in the region, and for hydropower, which meets 60% of the gas emissions during the 1990s.23 Climate change is also
region’s electricity demand.19 Changes in stream flow and altering coastal and marine ecosystems, with mangrove
water availability have been observed (high confidence), in degradation due to climate change observed on the north
the La Plata River basin, spanning parts of Argentina, Bolivia, coast of South America, for example.24
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, for example.20 The Andean
glaciers are retreating, affecting the seasonal distribution of
stream flows (high confidence) and changes in surface water
run-off in the La Plata River basin and Central Andes have
been associated with changes in rainfall (high confidence).21
9 3 7
1 Glacier retreat in the Andes in South America
9 1
6
2 Streamflow increase La Plata Basin
4
7 9 Increase in heavy precipitation and in risk of land slides and flooding
Grado de confianza en la atribución
1 9
3 in southestern South America, and in Central America and northern
6
9 South America
High
11 4 5
Biological systems
Continental 7
Degrading and receding rainforest in Amazonia and in Central America
scale and northern South America
Low
3 10 8
5 8 Reduction in fisheries stock
Human and managed systems
Increase in frequency and extension of dengue fever and malaria
Very low
9
8 7
10 Increases in agricultural yield in southeastern South America
Key
Food production
Livelihoods, health
and/or economics
Terrestrial
ecosystems
Wildfire
Marine
ecosystem
Confidence in attribution to
climate change
Very high Medium Low
• Shrinkage of Andean glaciers (high confidence, major contribution from climate change)
• Changes in extreme flows in Amazon River (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)
Snow & ice,
• Changing discharge patterns in rivers in the western Andes (medium confidence, major contribution from
rivers & lakes,
climate change)
floods & drought
• Increased streamflow in sub-basins of the La Plata River, beyond increase due to land use change (high confidence,
major contribution from climate change)
• Increased tree mortality and forest fire in Amazon (low confidence, minor contribution from climate change)
Terrestrial
• Rainforest degradation and recession in the Amazon, beyond reference trends in deforestation & land degradation
ecosystems
(low confidence, minor contribution from climate change)
• Increased coral bleaching in western Caribbean, beyond effects from pollution and physical disturbance (high
Coastal erosion confidence, major contribution from climate change)
• Mangrove degradation on north coast of South America, beyond degradation due to pollution and land use (low
& marine ecosystems
confidence, minor contribution from climate change)
• More vulnerable livelihood trajectories for indigenous Aymara farmers in Bolivia due to water shortage, beyond
Food production effects of increasing social and economic stress (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)
• Increase in agricultural yields and expansion of agricultural areas in southeastern South America, beyond increase
& livelihoods
due to improved technology (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change)
IMPACTS
Natural Socioeconomic
Variability Pathways
Governance
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
Image:
Aerial view of the Amazon rainforest | Neil Palmer, CIFOR The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report | What’s in it for Latin America? — 7
Regardless of future emissions,
we are already committed to
further warming.30
Further climate change is inevitable in the The IPCC warns that if global society continues to emit
coming decades greenhouse gases at current rates, the average global
temperature could rise by 2.6–4.8°C by 2100 (according to
the IPCC’s highest emissions scenario; see Box 3).32
Regardless of future emissions, we are already committed
to further warming, largely due to past emissions and The figure in Box 3, below, illustrates projected warming
inertia in the climate system. Globally, most greenhouse under a low-emissions scenario, a high-emissions scenario33
gas emissions due to human activities have come from and two intermediate emissions scenarios, and the
few countries. Total emissions since 1970 have continued temperature changes associated with each. Whether global
to rise, and emissions between 2000 and 2010 have been society continues to emit greenhouse gases at today’s rate,
the highest yet.31 or cuts greenhouse gas emissions sharply now, does not
make a big difference in terms of climate impacts in the
next few decades. It does however make a big difference
and irreversible difference to the risks in the longer run.
In assessing future climate change, the Fifth Assessment will continue beyond 2100 under all emissions scenarios
Report presents four scenarios, known as Representative except the lowest and will continue to vary between years
Concentration Pathways (RCPs – see figure at right). The and between decades.
scenarios show the result of different levels of emissions
of greenhouse gases, from the present day to 2100, on
Global mean temperature change (C relative to 1986–2005)
5 5
5 5
4 4
4 4
3 3
Global mean temperature change
Global mean temperature change
3 3
2 2
(C relative to 1986–2005)
(C relative to 1986–2005)
2 2
2003–2012
1 1
1 1
0
0 0
Unique & Distribution Large-scale
threatened of impacts singular
°C °C °C systems Extreme Global events °C
weather aggregate (disasters)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 events impacts
Year
RCP2.6 (a low-emissions
scenario) Undetectable High
Curbing emissions to maintain global temperatures below geographically, most notably showing a reduction of -22%
2°C would need urgent action at global level. However, the in Northeast Brazil, with an increase of +25% in Southeastern
benefits to the global climate – and societies and ecosystems South America (low confidence). By 2100, projections show
that depend on it – will only emerge in the latter half of the an increase in dry spells in tropical South America east of the
century. The IPCC lists the many reasons why mitigation Andes (medium confidence).
action must start now and the kinds of immediate benefits
Projected sea level rise: Global average sea level will
it can deliver (see page 21). In contrast, taking action on
continue to rise during the 21st century; under all emissions
adaptation today can deliver immediate benefits now and in
scenarios – low and high – the rate of sea level rise will very
the future. But, there are limits to adaptation.36 For this reason,
likely exceed that observed during the past three decades.41
both adaptation and mitigation are needed; they each deliver
Global average sea level rise by the last two decades of the
benefits but over different timeframes.37
21st century (as compared to sea levels in 1986–2005) will
Projected temperature trends:38 Climate projections likely be in the range of 26–55cm under a low-emissions
suggest increases in temperature across Latin America by scenario, but 45–82cm for a high-emissions scenario –
2100 (medium confidence). Under a range of medium and with total sea level rise of up to 98cm by 2100 under this
high emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), warming varies latter scenario.42
from +1.6°C to +4°C in Central America +1.7°C to +6.7°C
in South America (medium confidence). Projections show
increases in warm days and nights in most of South America Climate change poses challenges to
by 2100 (medium confidence). Under a low emissions
growth and development in Latin America
scenario (RCP2.6), warming is projected to increase across
the region by +1°C to +1.5°C.39
The Fifth Assessment Report identifies a set of climate-related
Projected rainfall trends:40 Increases or decreases in rainfall risks for Latin America. These are:
have been projected for the region (medium confidence).
Water availability, flooding and landslides: The availability
Rainfall changes for Central America range from between
of water in semi-arid and glacier melt-dependent regions
-22% to +7% by 2100, while in South America rainfall varies
and also across Central America will be affected by reduced
Amazon
Northeastern
Brazil
Southeastern
South America
Climatic factors
West Coast
South America
Average Extreme Drought
temperature temperature
both increasing and decreasing trends – both increasing and decreasing trends
snow cover, extreme rainfall, rising temperatures and The considerable threats outlined by the IPCC could
drought (high confidence).44 Urban and rural areas will be undermine the progress that Latin American countries have
affected by flooding and landslides due to extreme rainfall made in tackling poverty in the past decades, together with
events (high confidence).45 Changes in stream flow are gains in economic growth. Adaptation can reduce these
projected to continue in the near future in Latin America, risks and bring immediate benefits.
affecting already vulnerable regions (high confidence).
Declines in food production and quality: The IPCC finds
with medium confidence that food production and the Adaptation will bring immediate benefits
quality of food will decrease due to a range of climate and reduce the impacts of climate change
factors including extreme rainfall and temperature.46 in Latin America
Increases in global demand for food and biofuels led to a
Adaptation is the only effective option to manage the
sharp increase in agricultural production in Latin America, a
impacts of climate change that mitigation cannot reduce.
trend that is predicted to continue in the future.47 However,
The IPCC describes adaptation as “the process of adjustment
changes in agricultural productivity with consequences
to actual or expected climate and its effects”.53 Through
for food security are expected to vary considerably across
adaptation, societies and communities can moderate the
the region (medium confidence). In Southeastern South
harm of current and future climate risks or to take advantage
America, where projections indicate more rainfall, average
of new opportunities.
productivity could be sustained or increased until the
mid-century (medium confidence). But in Central America, In Latin America, climate change interacts with economic,
northeast of Brazil and parts of the Andean region increases social and environmental stressors to increase people’s
in temperature and decreases in rainfall could decrease vulnerabilities. For example, land use change, particularly
agricultural productivity in the short term (by 2030), high rates of deforestation in the Amazon basin and
threatening the food security of the poorest populations. Cerrado, contributes significantly to environmental
Considering that South America will be a key food- degradation, which intensifies the negative impacts of
producing region in the future, one of the challenges will be climate change (high confidence).54 There remains a high and
to increase food quality and production while maintaining persistent level of poverty in most countries of the region, in
environmental sustainability in a changing climate.48 spite of the sustained economic growth observed in the last
decade. Economic inequality is characterised by unequal
Spread of diseases: The IPCC finds with high confidence
access to water, sanitation and adequate housing. As a
that vector-borne diseases will spread across altitudes and
consequence, poorer households are more vulnerable to
latitudes across the region, due to change in average and
climate variability and change (high confidence).55
extreme temperature and rainfall.49
In many Latin American countries, a first step toward
The IPCC finds with very high confidence that climate change
adaptation to future climate changes is to reduce the
is associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,
vulnerability to present climate change.56 Indeed, effective
vector- and water-borne diseases (e.g. malaria, dengue,
adaptation can, and should, reduce the risks posed to
yellow fever, leishmaniasis, cholera and other diarrheal
livelihoods, infrastructure, ecosystem services and economic
diseases), hantaviruses and rotaviruses, chronic kidney
stability (see Figure 6, overleaf ). For example, urban and rural
disease and psychological trauma.50 Vulnerabilities vary
flood management, better forecasting and early warning
across the region depending on age, gender, race, ethnicity
systems can reduce flood risk from extreme rainfall.57
and socio-economic status, and are rising in large cities
in particular (very high confidence). Climate change will The IPCC emphasises that integrating adaptation into
increase current and future risks to health, given the region’s planning and decision-making can create many synergies
population growth rates and vulnerabilities in existing with development. ‘No regrets’ or ‘low regrets’ measures such
health, water, sanitation and waste collection systems, as safe housing and settlement structures and improved
nutrition, pollution and food production in poor regions access to education are good for development, irrespective
(medium confidence).51 of changes in climate (Table 2).
Key risk Adaptation issues and Climate drivers Time Risk and potential for
prospects frame adaptation
Very Medium Very
low high
Water availability in semi-arid • Integrated water resource
Present
and glacier-melt-dependent management
regions and Central America; • Urban and rural flood management Near-term
flooding and landslides in (including infrastructure), early (2030–2040)
urban and rural areas due to warning systems, better weather
extreme precipitation and runoff forecasts, and infectious
(high confidence). disease control Long-term 2°C
(2080–2100)
4°C
Very Medium Very
• Development of new crop varieties low high
more adapted to climate change
(temperature and drought) Present
• Offsetting of human and animal
Decreased food production Near-term
health impacts of reduced
and food quality (medium (2030–2040)
food quality
confidence).
• Offsetting of economic impacts of
land-use change CO2
Long-term
2°C
• Strengthening traditional indigenous (2080–2100)
knowledge systems and practices 4°C
* Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have particularly outside temperate climates. Just as the table in the Fifth
been shown to increase plant growth and plants’ water use efficiency. This Assessment Report (above) indicates that climate change will increase
positive effect is called the ‘carbon dioxide fertilisation effect’ and applies food insecurity, the IPCC also notes elsewhere in its assessment that climate
to forests, crops and other vegetation [high confidence]. However, not change may increase the incidence of drying and forest fires. These trends
all plant communities respond positively to increasing levels of carbon indicate that the ‘carbon dioxide fertilisation effect’ on forests, crops and
dioxide. In some instances, nutrient limitation can impede the fertilisation other vegetation should not be viewed in isolation.
effect. Significant uncertainties remain on the magnitude of this effect,
Box 6: Women, children and the elderly Box 7: Action on climate change and
can be more vulnerable to climate development are inextricably linked60
change impacts59
The IPCC concludes:
Women often experience additional duties as labourers • People who are socially, economically, culturally,
and caregivers as a result of extreme weather events politically, institutionally or otherwise marginalised in
and climate change, as well as from society’s responses society are often highly vulnerable to climate change.
to climate change (e.g., male migration). They face more
psychological and emotional distress, reduced food • Climate change impacts are projected to slow
intake and adverse mental health outcomes due to economic growth, make poverty reduction more
displacement, and in some cases, increasing incidences difficult, further erode food security, and prolong
of domestic violence. existing and create new poverty traps, particularly
in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger.
Children and the elderly are often at higher risk due to
narrow mobility, susceptibility to infectious diseases, • Climate change poses an increasing threat to
reduced caloric intake and social isolation; young equitable and sustainable development. Sustainable
children are more likely to die from or be severely development and equity provide a basis for
compromised by diarrheal diseases and floods. The assessing climate policies and addressing the risks
elderly face disproportional physical harm and death of climate change.
from heat stress, droughts and wildfires. • Business-as-usual development pathways can
contribute to climate risk and vulnerability, and
miss out on innovations and opportunities to build
resilience in social and economic sectors.
Poverty alleviation Improved access to and control of local resources; land tenure; disaster risk reduction; social safety nets and social
protection; insurance schemes.
through development, planning and practices including many low regrets measures
Livelihood security Income, asset, and livelihood diversification; improved infrastructure; access to technology and decision-making
fora; increased decision-making power; changed cropping, livestock, and aquaculture practices; reliance on
social networks.
Disaster risk Early warning systems; hazard and vulnerability mapping; diversifying water resources; improved drainage; flood
management and cyclone shelters; building codes and practices; storm and wastewater management; transport and road
infrastructure improvements.
Vulnerability and exposure reduction
Ecosystem Maintaining wetlands and urban green spaces; coastal afforestation; watershed and reservoir management;
management reduction of other stressors on ecosystems and of habitat fragmentation; maintenance of genetic diversity;
manipulation of disturbance regimes; community-based natural resource management.
Spatial or land-use Provisioning of adequate, housing, infrastructure and services; managing development in flood-prone and other
planning high risk areas; urban planning and upgrading programmes; land zoning laws; easements; protected areas.
Engineered and built environment options: sea walls and coastal protection structures; flood levees; water
storage; improved drainage; flood and cyclone shelters; building codes and practices; storm and wastewater
management; transport and road infrastructure improvements; floating houses; power plant and electricity
Adaptation including incremental and transformational adjustments
grid adjustments.
Technological options: new crops and animal varieties; indigenous, traditional and local knowledge, technologies,
and methods; efficient irrigation; water-saving technologies; desalinisation; conservation agriculture; food storage
and preservation facilities; hazard and vulnerability mapping and monitoring; early warning systems; building
Structural/physical insulation; mechanical and passive cooling; technology development, transfer and diffusion.
Ecosystem-based options: ecological restoration; soil conservation; afforestation and reforestation; mangrove
conservation and replanting; green infrastructure (e.g., shade trees, green roofs); controlling overfishing; fisheries
co-management; assisted species migration and dispersal; ecological corridors; seed banks, gene banks and other
ex situ conservation; community-based natural resource management.
Services: social safety nets and social protection; food banks and distribution of food surplus; municipal services
including water and sanitation; vaccination programmes; essential public services; enhanced emergency
medical services.
Economic options: financial incentives; insurance; catastrophe bonds; payments for ecosystem services; pricing
water to encourage universal provision and careful use; microfinance; disaster contingency funds; cash transfers;
public-private partnerships.
Laws and regulations: land zoning laws; building standards and practices; easements; water regulations and
agreements; laws to support disaster risk reduction; laws to encourage insurance purchasing; defined property
Institutional rights and land tenure security; protected areas; fishing quotas; patent pools and technology transfer.
National and government policies and programmes: national and regional adaptation plans including
mainstreaming; sub-national and local adaptation plans; economic diversification; urban upgrading programmes;
municipal water management programmes; disaster planning and preparedness; integrated water resource
management; integrated coastal zone management; ecosystem-based management; community-based
adaptation.
Educational options: awareness raising and integration into education; gender equity in education; extension
services; sharing indigenous, traditional and local knowledge; participatory action research and social learning;
knowledge-sharing and learning platforms.
Informational options: hazard and vulnerability mapping; early warning and response systems; systematic
Transformation
Social monitoring and remote sensing; climate services; use of indigenous climate observations; participatory scenario
development; integrated assessments.
Behavioural options: household preparation and evacuation planning; migration; soil and water conservation;
storm drain clearance; livelihood diversification; changed cropping, livestock and aquaculture practices; reliance
on social networks.
Practical: social and technical innovations, behavioural shifts, or institutional and managerial changes that produce
substantial shifts in outcomes.
Political: political, social, cultural, and ecological decision and actions consistent with reducing vulnerability and
Spheres of change
risk and supporting adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development.
Personal: individual and collective assumptions, beliefs, values, and worldviews influencing climate
change responses.
Adaptation is fundamentally about risk Some development pathways, like rapid urbanisation of
management coastal zones, can increase the vulnerability of certain
groups to future climate change.65 Measures to reduce
climate-related risks for the long-term may include
In Latin America, governments, businesses and
providing adequate housing, infrastructure or services,
communities will have to take both short- and long-term
or mainstreaming climate change into planning processes
approaches to managing climate risks. In the short term,
(see Table 2).
integrating climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction
will help withstand shocks to human security and economic Risk-based approaches to decision-making provide a
development from which recovery can be costly. The poor useful foundation for assessing potential opportunities,
level of climate adaptation in Latin American countries is constraints and limits associated with adaptation of human
shown by the fact that responses to disasters are mainly and natural systems (high agreement, medium evidence).
reactive rather than preventative.62 Much can be done to Risk management frames the consequences of climate
anticipate and reduce risk, rather than reacting after impacts change and potential adaptation responses in the context
have occurred. Some early warning systems are being of peoples’ values, objectives and planning horizons as
implemented, but the capacity to respond to a warning is they make decisions under uncertainty.66 Coping with new
often limited, particularly among poorer populations.63 situations may require new approaches, such as multi-level
risk governance associated with decentralisation in decision-
Support for effective disaster relief and recovery needs
making and responsibility.67
to continue, along with proactive efforts to reduce risk.
These include integrating comprehensive risk assessments
and risk reduction measures into national economic and
development policy. Adaptation experience in Latin America
is growing and regional cooperation is
The development and implementation of systemic
adaptation strategies, involving institutional, social, helping to facilitate adaptation at scale
ecosystem, environmental, financial and capacity
In Latin America, countries are already accumulating
components to reduce vulnerability to present climate
practical experience in adapting to climate change at the
extreme events is a key step towards climate change
national and local levels. Experiences of effective adaptation
adaptation in Latin America.64
are being documented, as are instances of ‘maladaptation’
In the longer term, governments, businesses and (see Glossary for a full definition of ‘maladaptation’). Lessons
communities need not only to prepare for the kinds have already been learned from these first experiences
of climate impacts experienced up to now but also for and tools, such as the Index of Usefulness of Practices for
different and more intense climate impacts and extreme Adaptation (IUPA) to evaluate adaptation practices.68
events. There are good reasons to start now in the
Evidenced by these practical experiences, there is a wide
process of adapting to these longer-term risks. The IPCC
range of options to foster adaptation and the capacity to
cautions against overemphasising short-term outcomes
adapt to climate change in the region. Adaptation options
or insufficiently anticipating consequences. Given that
highlighted in the Fifth Assessment Report for the Latin
climate change cuts across sectoral boundaries, poorly
America region as a whole are presented in Table 3.
conceived development programmes or sector-specific
adaptation strategies could lower resilience in other sectors
or ecosystems.
Vulnerabilities compounded by climate impacts in Options for adaptation or for adaptation and
Latin America mitigation combined
Changes in stream flow and water availability has been observed and will • Ongoing constitutional and legal reform towards more efficient and effective
continue in the future (high confidence). water resources management and coordination (medium confidence).
• Groundwater pumping, fog capture, reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure in
semi-arid areas.
• Improved agricultural water management practices.
• Flood management practices (medium confidence).
Biodiversity and ecosystem loss caused by conversion of natural • Ecosystem-based adaptation practices are increasingly common across the
ecosystems (high confidence) increasing exposure to climate risk and region, such as the effective management and establishment of protected
greenhouse gas emissions. areas, conservation agreements and community management of natural areas.
Risk of flooding in coastal and low-lying areas. • Coastal planning to facilitate mangrove restoration and reduce coastal erosion.
• Redirecting new settlements to safer locations and promote investments in
appropriate infrastructure.
Changes in agricultural productivity with consequences for food security • Genetic advances and suitable soil and technological management.
(medium confidence). • Conservation agriculture.
• Improved water conservation and management.
• Index-based insurance.
• Local and indigenous knowledge.
• Livelihood diversification.
Vulnerabilities in urban settlements and industry are compounded by • Integrating climate policies with disaster risk management and land use and
climate change. economic development planning.
Renewable energy based on biomass can impact on land-use change and • Advances in second-generation bioethanol from sugarcane and other
deforestation (medium confidence). feedstocks will be important as a measure of mitigation.
• Integration of biofuel crops with conservation measures.
Negative impacts on human health (high confidence). • Investment in research and development, as well as improved governance and
systems for prevention and response.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to adaptation. No Another kind of autonomous adaptation is the southward
one single adaptation strategy will meet the needs of all displacement of agriculture activities (e.g. wine, coffee)
communities and contexts in Latin America. Moreover, through the purchase of lands that will become favourable
the characteristics of community or society’s capacity to in a warmer climate. In Argentina, the increase of rainfall
adapt to climate change will differ from place to place, and observed during the past 30 years contributed to a
depend largely on specific contexts. westward displacement of the annual crop frontier.
However, local adaptations like these may undermine
This is why autonomous adaptation experience is mainly
the long-term resilience of systems when local, short-
realised at the local level with examples found, for instance,
term strategies designed to deal with specific threats or
for rural communities in Honduras, indigenous communities
challenges do not integrate a more holistic and long-
in Bolivia and coffee agroforestry systems in Brazil. In certain
term vision.71
regions or communities, such as Anchioreta in Brazil,
adaptation is part of a permanent process and is actually
tackled through a clear objective of vulnerability reduction,
maintaining and diversifying a large set of natural varieties
of corn and allowing the farmers to diversify their planting.70
Some low-carbon development options In 2010, governmental Parties to the United Nations
may be less costly in the long run and Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
meeting in Cancun82 pledged to reduce emissions to
could offer new economic opportunities
achieve the long-term goal of limiting global warming to
for Latin America 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. The Fifth Assessment
Report finds that actual government pledges made at and
Ambitious climate change mitigation at the global level
since Cancun fall short of what is needed to achieve the
must start now in order to limit the magnitude of long-term
long-term goal.
climate change and reduce the risks. Delaying action on
mitigation will not only mean that adaptation costs will rise, The IPCC also finds that mitigation efforts and the costs of
but will substantially increase the difficulty of transitioning, mitigation vary between countries; developing countries
globally, towards a low-emissions development pathway as have a significant proportion of the opportunities for low-
countries invest in low-cost but potentially carbon-intensive cost mitigation.84 To be cost-effective on a global scale, most
infrastructure.76 Between 15% and 40% of emitted carbon mitigation needs to take place in countries projected to
dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for more than 1,000 have the highest emissions in the future. But it is important
years. This creates a major intergenerational challenge to recognise that, although deep cuts in greenhouse gas
in terms of rights and responsibilities to act on climate emissions are technically possible, making such cuts will
change. The Fifth Assessment Report provides a global carbon entail substantial technological, economic, institutional and
budget (See Box 8, below), which outlines the magnitude of behavioural changes.
this challenge.77
As such, Latin American countries can play a role in global
The world’s governments have pledged to limit warming climate stabilisation efforts by taking advantage of low-
to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Above the 2°C warming carbon options that bolster their own development
threshold, climate change impacts become severe and needs. For example, there are opportunities to reduce
unmanageable. Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions deforestation, manage livestock sustainably, manage
– at global level – would limit warming to 2°C and avoid agricultural lands in climate-smart ways, adopt energy
dangerous climate change. The IPCC states that under efficient transport systems and plan innovative low-
this ambitious scenario, emissions would peak in Latin carbon towns and cities . Managed carefully for social
America by 2030 then decline;78 under such a scenario, Latin and environmental impacts, such actions can bring large
American emissions in 2040 would be 1% higher than they benefits beyond reducing the impacts of climate change.
are today.
Key drivers of emissions in Latin America include the use of
fossil fuel-based energy, population increases and economic
growth.79 Emission growth rates are (relative to the global
level) low at 0.8% between 2000 and 2010.80 Whilst total
emission levels are the lowest for all regions in the world,
per capita emission levels remain higher than in both Africa
and Asia.81 Mitigation efforts in Latin America would need to
concentrate more on keeping emission levels low and less
on emission reduction.
In expanding economically and meeting their to avoid greenhouse gas emissions provide generous
development needs, Latin American countries have gains in economic productivity, human development and
abundant opportunities to adopt clean, efficient low- quality of life. For example, the development of low-carbon
carbon technologies and practices. They can side step the mass transit systems can boost economic productivity, by
inefficient, fossil fuel-dependent infrastructure that heavily reducing traffic congestion, and can improve air quality,
industrialised countries are ‘locked into’.90 At the same thus benefiting public health. This is a major opportunity.
time, they can put in place the policies and regulations
The IPCC states, “…in rapidly growing and urbanising
and develop the markets that value and incentivise the
regions, mitigation strategies based on spatial planning
sustainable management of the precious forest and soil
and efficient infrastructure supply can avoid lock-in of high
resources that act as globally-important carbon stores.
emission patterns.” 92 Because emissions in Latin America
The Fifth Assessment Report identifies many low-carbon are driven mainly by energy and given the low emission
opportunities and co-benefits.91 Many of the measures base, there is scope to produce dual wins by concentrating
future energy investments into renewable energy (such Certain low-carbon development options cost more than
as hydropower) which can help expand energy supply, ‘conventional’ options. However, taking the long view, the
meeting growing population needs, but also keeping cost of adopting low-carbon options now is less than the
emissions from the sector low. cost of waiting for the development of improvements
in renewable technologies or locking infrastructure into
Urbanisation strategies for mitigation (such as intelligent
high-emissions pathways and then cutting emissions
urban planning, low carbon transport infrastructure etc.)
more precipitously, later. Globally, estimates indicate
will be important for the rapidly growing continent. The city
that the growth in economic consumption is 1.6–3% a
of Curitiba in Brazil is already heralded as one of the world’s
year. Adopting ambitious climate mitigation measures
most sustainable cities using well planned transit corridors
would reduce this consumption growth by around 0.06
that make extensive use of public transportation systems,93
(in the range of 0.04–0.14) percentage points per year
an approach that is also being taken up in Mexico and
over the 21st century.106
Guatemala.94 Such sustainable cities improve lives (reducing
pollution) and increase efficiency (reducing traffic and
transit times).
Latin America stands to benefit from
Renewable energy is already a cost effective solution for
further integration of climate adaptation,
energy production in rural areas if Brazil,96 wider adoption
of such technologies across Latin America could have mitigation and development approaches
significant positive impacts for livelihoods and productivity
The IPCC points out that there are many complementarities
in rural areas whilst maintaining low emission levels.
among climate adaptation, mitigation and development
Efficiency measures in industry (i.e. substituting coke
and provides a wealth of evidence to support this.107 Many
with charcoal for iron smelting97 or improving the energy
sustainable development pathways combine adaptation,
efficiency of industrial machinery)98 can be cost efficient
mitigation and development approaches.
and improve productivity in the manufacturing sector
across Latin America. Coupled with existing reductions in Various examples demonstrate possible synergies between
energy intensity (i.e. in Mexico)99 these changes can reduce development, adaptation and mitigation planning, which
production costs (increasing competitiveness) and maintain can help local communities and governments to allocate
(or even lowering) emissions in the continent. efficiently available resources in the design of strategies to
reduce vulnerability.108
Reducing deforestation is seen as a cost-effective mitigation
action which can also help reverse the current decline For example, payment for ecosystem services (or PES)
in forested land,100 especially through the use of REDD+ involve conditional payments or compensations to
incentives.101 Even though agricultural emissions in voluntary providers who can secure ecosystem services,
Latin America are low and are mainly driven by livestock which can include regulation of freshwater flows, carbon
rearing,102 emission and efficiency (i.e. yield) improvements storage, provision of habitat for biodiversity and scenic
can still occur through the increased intensification of beauty.109 Assigning values to these services and designing
agricultural production.103 Brazilian bioethanol production conservation agreements based on these can be an
has shown to be a greater creator of employment than effective way of helping local communities to adapt to
the country’s petroleum sector,104 suggesting that shifts in climate change. Simultaneously, it can help protect natural
agriculture towards dual use crops (i.e. for both energy and areas and improve livelihoods and human wellbeing
food) such as sugar cane, can improve the energy supply (medium confidence).110
as well as provide effective livelihood opportunities. Energy
However, adopting such actions at continental scale
efficiency measures can also be applied at the household
requires that Latin American citizens and governments
level i.e. the success of the National Cookstoves Programme
are faced with the challenge of building new governance
in both Mexico and Peru105 shows that clean energy
models, where imperative development needs, vulnerability
measures can also have beneficial livelihood impacts.
reduction and adaptation strategies to climate stresses will
have to be truly intertwined.111
International cooperation is vital to avert policy options and their implementation in a range of
dangerous climate change and Latin country contexts. The Fifth Assessment Report provides
the strongest scientific evidence of climate change yet.
American governments can promote
The report also indicates that waiting or doing nothing
ambitious global action is no longer an option and makes a compelling case for
immediate global action on climate change. Political
Since the IPCC’s formation in 1992, its work has given us a
processes need to reflect this. Ensuring the right choices
better understanding of climate science and has provided
now requires every government to participate in global
us with a better picture of vulnerabilities in different parts
climate negotiations towards a collective solution.
of the world. The IPCC has reviewed the range of potential
What is the global carbon budget? How fast are we burning it?
Multi-model results show that for a two-thirds chance Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities reached
(>66% probability) of limiting total human-induced warming 49 GtCO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) per year in 2010,
to less than 2°C relative to the period 1861–1880 would plus or minus 4.9 units.119 Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel
require cumulative CO2 emissions from all human activities combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78%
since 1870 to remain below around 2,900 GtCO2 (with a range of the total greenhouse gas emissions increase from 1970 to
of 2,550–3,150 GtC CO2). About 1,900 GtCO2 of this ‘budget’ 2010, with a similar percentage contribution for the increase
had already been emitted by 2011.117 during the period 2000 to 2010 (high confidence). Other
emissions come from land use, land use change and industrial
How much carbon budget is left? processes.120
Human society could ‘afford’ to burn 1,000 GtCO2 more, to
have a two-thirds likelihood of limiting temperature rise at or How great are the remaining fossil fuel reserves?
below two degrees. Because one tonne of carbon is equal to The total fossil carbon available in reserves is 3,670–7,100
3.667 tonnes of CO2, that leaves about 270 ‘tonnes of carbon’ GtCO2 (as measured in 2011) – many times greater than the
in the global ‘budget’. The IPCC sets out its best assessment of ‘carbon budget’ human society could afford to burn and still
the facts: it is up to politicians to decide whether they can live keep temperature rise below two degrees.121
with a two-thirds chance or whether they prefer to increase
the odds of staying below two degrees and limit remaining
net emissions even more than this.118
CO2 concentration
Arctic summer sea ice Heatwaves
Impact on seasons Ocean warming
Glacial melt Surface temperature
Sea level rise
Ocean pH
Climate indicators
IPCC process
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Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or Resilience: The capacity of a social-ecological system to
expected climate and its effects. In human systems, cope with a hazardous event or disturbance, responding
adaptation seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial or reorganising in ways that maintain its essential function,
opportunities. In natural systems, human intervention may identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity
facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. for adaptation, learning, and transformation.
Greenhouse gas: Greenhouse gases are those gaseous Scenario: A plausible description of how the future may
constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and caused develop based on a coherent and internally consistent
by human activity. Greenhouse gases trap energy from set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., rate of
the sun in the atmosphere causing it to warm. Water technological change, prices) and relationships. Note
vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts,
methane (CH4), and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse but are useful to provide a view of the implications of
gases in the Earth’s atmosphere; while hexafluoride (SF6), developments and actions.
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Social protection: In the context of development aid and
are also of concern. Moreover, there are a number of
climate policy, social protection usually describes public
entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
and private initiatives that provide income or consumption
such as halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-
transfers to the poor, protect the vulnerable against
containing substances.
livelihood risks, and enhance the social status and rights
Maladaptive actions (or maladaptation): Actions that may of the marginalised, with the overall objective of reducing
lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, the economic and social vulnerability of poor, vulnerable,
increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished and marginalised groups.
welfare, now or in the future.
Transformation: A change in the fundamental attributes of
Mitigation (of climate change): A human intervention a system, often based on altered paradigms, goals, or values.
to reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance Transformations can occur in technological or biological
the sinks (those processes, activities, or mechanisms that systems, financial structures, and regulatory, legislative,
remove a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere). or administrative regimes.
Representative concentration pathways (RCPs): Scenarios Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be
that include time series of emissions and concentrations adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety
of the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols and of concepts including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm
chemically active gases, as well as land use and land cover. and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
The word ‘representative’ signifies that each RCP provides
only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the
specific radiative forcing characteristics (i.e., greenhouse gas-
related warming). The term ‘pathway’ emphasises that not
only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but
also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome.
1 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science 22 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
Basis. Headline Statements from the Summary for and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (p4).
Policymakers. 23 Ibid. (p17).
2 Ibid. 24 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
3 The range shown is 0.65–1.06°C. IPCC (2013). Climate and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Table SPM.
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for A1, p34).
Policymakers (p5). 25 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
4 “The rate of sea level rise has been greater than the and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (p14).
mean rate during the previous two millennia (high 26 Ibid. (Figure SPM.2 p36).
confidence).” IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The 27 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers (p11). and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Table SPM.
5 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation A1, p34).
and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (p4). 28 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
6 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (Figure 27–8).
Science Basis. Headline Statements from the 29 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
Summary for Policymakers. and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (TS.1, p60).
7 Ibid. 30 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
8 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation Basis. Summary for Policymakers (p27).
and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Box SPM.2 31 During the decade 2000–2010, emissions have been
Table 1, p29). higher “than any previous decade since 1750” and
9 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation “between 2000–2010, greenhouse gas emissions grew
and Vulnerability. Chapter 10 (p4). on average 2.2% per year compared to 1.3% per year
10 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation over the entire period 1970–2000”. IPCC (2014). Climate
and Vulnerability. Chapter 12 (p2). Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Technical
11 Insert the correct endnote here for box 1 Summary (pp9–10).
12 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation 32 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (p2). Basis. Summary for Policymakers (p23).
13 Ibid. 33 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
14 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Figure
and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (p9). SPM.4, p38).
15 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science 34 All analysis in Box 3 including the figure are derived
Basis. Chapter 13. from IPCC (2013). The Physical Science Basis. Technical
16 Observed temperature and precipitation data are Summary (Figure TS-15, p89).
given in IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical 35 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers (pp6,8). and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Figure
Observed temperature and precipitation maps are SPM.4, p38).
also presented in IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: 36 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Technical Summary and Vulnerability. Chapter 16 (p3).
(Figure TS.5, pp64–65). 37 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
17 Ibid. and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (p13).
18 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation 38 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (p6). and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (pp2–3).
19 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation 39 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (p14). and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers (Figure
20 Ibid. SPM.4, p10).
21 Ibid. (p3). 40 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Chapter 27 (pp2–3).
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Climate Change. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I.
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