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KMC MM Office Briefing 3q 2021
KMC MM Office Briefing 3q 2021
KMC MM Office Briefing 3q 2021
Metro Manila
Office Briefing 3Q 2021
Metro Manila | Office Briefing
915,787 sq m 416,392 sq m
QUEZON CITY C5 CORRIDOR
1,217,214 sq m
565,681 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER
MAKATI FRINGE
460,540 sq m
GREATER ORTIGAS
1,415,969 sq m
MAKATI CBD
NAIA
2,242,005 sq m
BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY
1,297,747 sq m
BAY AREA
493,616 sq m
MCKINLEY
Metro Manila
GRAPH 1 ■ Metro Manila’s Grade A office market was
Stock & Vacancy hampered by an accumulated supply of around
525,000 sq m along with a bearish market
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock
sentiment. Its vacancy rate further increased
8,000
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate
24% to 15.5% – more than double compared
to 3Q/2020. Movement mainly came from
preleasing activities in anticipation of new supply.
6,000 18% Meanwhile, due to Delta variant concerns, some
'000 sq m (GLA)
600
break record level highs.
400
TABLE 1
Key Figures - Grade A Office
Makati Ortigas Quezon
3Q 2021 Unit BGC Alabang Bay Area
CBD Center City
PHP/sq m 1,097.6 1,019.4 692.9 668.0 730.9 864.2
Average net rental
rate
USD/sq ft 2.02 1.88 1.28 1.23 1.35 1.59
Development Pipeline
sq m 106,974 299,686 279,493 123,324 176,735 338,442
2021-2024
* Makati CBD includes Premium Offices
kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3
Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Makati CBD
GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up
1,500 20% 160
'000 sq m (GLA)
'000 sq m (GLA)
900 12% 80
600 8% 40
300 4% 0
0 0% -40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY 150
Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
160 30%
120
140 20%
'000 sq m (GLA)
120 10% 90
3Q 2007 = 100
100 0%
60
80 -10%
60 -20% 30
40 -30%
0
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
20 1
21
1Q200
3Q200
1Q200
3Q 00
1Q200
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q202
1Q202
3Q202
2
2
2
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ Vacancies across the premier financial district settled at 15.3% – jumping more than four-folds during the third quarter
compared to the same period last year. A total of 21,600 sq m of Grade A office space was vacated, while the addition of
Alveo Financial Tower and Ayala Triangle Tower 2 pushed vacancies higher.
■ Landlords are more inclined to offer heavily discounted rents once in the negotiation process. We have observed a drop of
4.2% YoY in average rents, ending the quarter at PHP 1,097.6 per sq m / month – reverting to 2018 levels and the highest
recorded decline in 10 years.
■ Overall weakness of market fundamentals will continue in the near term. Tenants of all sizes are seeking quality space
combined with the opportunity to take advantage of increasingly tenant-favorable conditions. Despite the muted supply in the
next few quarters, the vacancy rate in Makati CBD is still expected to remain in the mid to high-teens until 2022.
4
3Q 2021
GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up
2,500 10% 400
350
2,000 8% 300
'000 sq m (GLA)
'000 sq m (GLA)
250
1,500 6%
200
150
1,000 4%
100
500 2% 50
0 0% -50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY 160
Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
180 40%
140 20%
120 10%
3Q 2007 = 100
80
100 0%
80 -10%
60 -20% 40
40 -30%
20 -40% 0
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
20 1
21
1Q200
3Q200
1Q200
3Q 00
1Q200
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q202
1Q202
3Q202
2
2
2
2
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ Bucking the trend, market conditions in BGC slightly improved as demand outperformed supply with vacancy rate declining
to 9.8%. We still saw a significant number of non-renewals while large transactions remain scarce. Amid the completion of
Alveo Park Triangle Tower, net take-up in the submarket managed to close at 40,600 sq m.
■ After experiencing a slump for five consecutive quarters, average rents in BGC recorded a 0.3% quarterly growth in 3Q/2021
from a reduction of 0.5% in 2Q/2021. Rents closed at PHP 1,019.4 per sq m / month. The market remains in the middle of
a price correction against a backdrop of all-time high vacancies. Premium spaces are still looking to achieve pre-pandemic
rates while older buildings are priced at a discount.
■ Despite an uptick in leasing activity in BGC, landlords continue to be at a disadvantage with soaring vacancies throughout
Metro Manila. However, vacancies are expected to stabilize as development pipelines ease in the coming quarters. Given the
premium spaces available in the submarket, flight-to-quality may remain a prominent trend which could effectively have rents
fluctuating.
kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5
Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Ortigas Center
GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up
1,400 35% 300
'000 sq m (GLA)
'000 sq m (GLA)
400 10% 50
200 5% 0
0 0% -50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY 300
Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
160 30%
140 20%
'000 sq m (GLA)
200
120 10%
3Q 2007 = 100
100 0%
80 -10% 100
60 -20%
40 -30%
0
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
20 1
21
2
2
2
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ Even with the current landscape, Ortigas Center managed to register another period of positive net absorption with 46,200 sq
m in 3Q/2021. However, the influx of new supply has been feeding the rising vacancy rate in the submarket. Around 178,300
sq m of fresh Grade A office space was added to the total stock since the onset of the pandemic. By the end of the quarter,
the vacancy rate closed at 20.2%.
■ Stable tenant inquiries and steady demand translated to a better-than-expected leasing activity during the quarter. This has
pushed landlords to keep rents almost unchanged as we only saw a marginal drop of 0.2% YoY while an uptick of 0.3%
QoQ. As such, average rents have settled at PHP 692.9 per sq m / month.
■ The improving stock, complemented by its affordability has been attracting potential occupiers – having closed large
e-commerce players such as Shopee and Grab during the first nine months of the year. In terms of rents, the submarket
has shown resilience due to its insignificant movement. Vacancies are expected to continue pointing upwards with around
231,300 sq m of new supply coming on stream in the next 12 to 15 months.
6
3Q 2021
Alabang
GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply
Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up
800 32% 100
80
60
600 24%
'000 sq m (GLA)
'000 sq m (GLA)
40
20
400 16%
0
-20
200 8%
-40
-60
0 0% -80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Alabang Rental Growth, YoY 70
Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 60
160 30%
140 20% 50
'000 sq m (GLA)
120 10% 40
3Q 2007 = 100
100 0% 30
80 -10% 20
60 -20% 10
40 -30% 0
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
20 1
21
1Q200
3Q200
1Q200
3Q 00
1Q200
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q201
3Q 01
1Q201
3Q201
1Q 01
3Q202
1Q202
3Q202
2
2
2
2
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ The increasing number of pre-terminations and non-renewals in Alabang CBD has resulted in a vacancy rate of 18.9% by the
end of 3Q/2021. Around 10,100 sq m of office space was vacated during the quarter, with the majority of the tenants coming
from the POGO sector and BPO companies that were downsizing their office portfolios.
■ Following the continuous rise in vacancies in the submarket, average rents declined by 2.5% QoQ to PHP 668.0 per sq m /
month. Landlords exhibit a more flexible attitude towards asking rates and maintain generous incentives due to intensifying
competition to secure limited demand.
■ Given the adoption of flexible work models, organizations are cautiously evaluating future real estate needs. Occupiers will
continue to seek short-term opportunities to extract cost savings. With more than 120,000 sq m of new Grade A office space
scheduled in the next few quarters, Alabang CBD may further experience higher vacancies. We forecast the vacancy rate to
hover around the upper twenties until 2022.
kmcmaggroup.com/research | 7
Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Quezon City
GRAPH 19 GRAPH 20
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Quezon City Grade A Office Stock Quezon City Grade A Office Supply
Quezon City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Quezon City Grade A Office Take-Up
800 24% 250
200
600 18%
'000 sq m (GLA)
'000 sq m (GLA)
150
50
200 6%
0
0 0% -50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 21 GRAPH 22
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Quezon City Rental Growth, YoY 120
Quezon City Grade A Office Rental Index
Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index
160 30%
140 20%
'000 sq m (GLA)
80
120 10%
3Q 2007 = 100
100 0%
80 -10% 40
60 -20%
40 -30%
0
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
20 1
21
2
2
2
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ Transaction volume in Quezon City was sluggish and was negated by tenant departures – witnessing another deficit of
around 2,500 sq m of office space vacated during the quarter. By the end of 3Q/2021, its vacancy rate ended at 18.6%.
Despite vacancies in an upswing, the pace of acceleration slowed down during the quarter.
■ Amid the ongoing lull in signed leases, the quarterly decrease in average rents was still nominal at 0.6% in 3Q/2021
compared to 0.1% in 2Q/2021. Rentals in the submarket finished the quarter at PHP 730.9 per sq m / month. Landlords will
hold firm on asking rates but are expected to continue to offer aggressive concessions to secure and retain tenants.
■ Quezon City is anticipated to experience increasing vacancies in the next coming quarters because of weak business
sentiment combined with a glut of inventory. Reduction in occupancies was predominantly driven by the BPO sector,
trimming down their office footprint due to the implementation of remote work policies.
8
3Q 2021
Bay Area
GRAPH 23 GRAPH 24
Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up
Bay Area Grade A Office Stock Bay Area Grade A Office Supply
Bay Area Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bay Area Grade A Office Take-Up
1,400 35% 300
'000 sq m (GLA)
800 20% 150
400 10% 50
200 5% 0
0 0% -50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
GRAPH 25 GRAPH 26
Rental Performance Development Pipeline
Bay Area Grade A Office Rental Growth YoY
Bay Area Grade A Office Rental Rates 300
1,400 12%
1,200 10%
'000 sq m (GLA)
1,000 8% 200
Php / sq m / month
800 6%
600 4%
100
400 2%
200 0%
0
0 -2% 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1Q
2Q
3Q
MARKET IN MINUTES
■ The Bay Area suffered substantial losses during the quarter with vacancy rates climbing to 18.5% from 8.2% in 2Q/2021.
Negative net absorption was at 63,800 sq m – the biggest decline recorded in one single quarter. Majority of vacancies came
from non-renewal of leases from the POGO industry.
■ Average rents followed suit as it dipped further by 0.6% YoY, closing at PHP 864.2 per sq m / month. We anticipate further
price correction in rentals due to excess supply and lethargic demand.
■ Since the start of the pandemic, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) reported that POGO locators
across Metro Manila were slashed by half, from 60 to 33. In terms of office space, POGOs now only account for 26% in the
submarket. A surge in vacancies in the Bay Area is expected as the BPO sector reevaluates its office requirements and over
313,000 sq m of new supply planned for completion in the next 9 to 12 months.
kmcmaggroup.com/research | 9
Metro Manila | Office Briefing
Other Submarkets
'000 sq m (GLA)
■ Vacancies in Greater Ortigas and the 1,200
40
0
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
The McKinley submarket is Rockwell Center, Century C5 Corridor covers a stretch The Greater Ortigas
located south of Bonifacio City and Circuit Makati, as of Eulogio Rodriguez Jr. submarket predominantly
Global City, covering well as areas outside the Avenue from Quezon City covers the cities of Pasig
McKinley West and McKinley Makati Central Business to Pasig City. Located and Mandaluyong–which
Hill. District, comprise the Makati north are Eastwood City, include Capitol Commons,
Fringe submarket. Circulo Verde, Bridgetowne Portico, Robinsons
Business Park, and Cybergate Center and
Parklinks; farther south are Greenfield District–and the
Frontera Verde and ArcoVia. areas of Quezon City that
surround the Ortigas Center.
10
3Q 2021
PROJECT FOCUS
SIZE PER 3,000 (can be subdivided) or open for Build-to- Strategically located near
WAREHOUSE (SQ M) Suit warehouses
CAVITEX toll plaza, South
September 2021 (first phase) Seven Collective (SS Kawit) is a
COMPLETION DATE
• 6 warehouses (1,500 sq m each) OR 3
duplex warehouses (3,000 sq m each)
9-hectare warehouse complex
• 6,000 sq m warehouse development at the south of
Metro Manila. The property
TURNOVER DATE 2Q 2021 consists of 32 build-to-suit
warehouses measuring 1,500 sq
• Warehouses can be subdivided m or 3,000 sq m each (can be
OTHER FEATURES • Customizable warehouse design and size
depending on requirements (Build-to-Suit) combined).
JM WAREHOUSE
Osmeña Highway, Makati City
PARKING
1:1,000 sq m
ALLOCATION
GRAPH 29
12-month Supply Forecast by Building
100
80
'000 sq m (GLA)
60
40
20
0
DoubleDragon Tower
One Filinvest
Filinvest Axis Tower 4
Southkey Hub 2
Worldwide Plaza
iMet 2
iMet 3
iMet 4
SMDC Air
One Proscenium
SM Megatower
The Index
One Trium Tower
NXTower
8912 Aseana Ave
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2021 2022
Makati CBD BGC Ortigas Center Alabang Bay Area C5 Makati Fringe
kmcmaggroup.com/research | 11
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