Arne Duncan

Founder, Chicago CRED

Managing Partner, Emerson Collective
Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce
January 26, 2022
Chicago has more police and more murders per
capita than NYC or LA
Chicago New York Los Angeles

Homicides (2021) 797 485 397

Homicide Rate 29.5 5.5 9.9

Per Capita (100K)

Sworn Police 43.5 39.4 25

Per-Capita (10K)

Arne Duncan: Chicagoland Chamber of

2
Commerce 1-26-22
A POLICE DEPARTMENT IN CRISIS: THE FACTS
POSITIONS CUT IN 2021

INCREASED VACANCIES

DISTRICTS DEPLETED FOR CITYWIDE UNITS

RETIREMENTS AND TRANSFERS INCREASING

POLICE OVER-COMMITTED TO NON-VIOLENT CALLS

LOW ARREST RATES FOR HOMICIDES AND SHOOTINGS

THOUSANDS ON SICK LEAVE

GUN CONFISCATION SHOWS NO CORRELATION WITH HOMICIDES

DECLINING CONFIDENCE IN LEADERSHIP

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 3

At Least 1,400 Fewer Police Officers
Today Than Three Years Ago
Nearly 1,000 positions left vacant
More than 600 positions cut in 2021
Slow rate of replacements
____________________________________
Bottom Line: Sworn Officers
January 2019 -- 13, 353
January 2022 -- 11,900
Source: Office of Inspector General

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 4

Creating citywide units has left
neighborhoods under-patrolled
875 police officers were assigned to a citywide unit for the last two years, reducing police
presence in the neighborhoods.

The citywide strategy, “Tends to alienate the

community that’s involved.”

-Interim Police Superintendent Charlie Beck

-Source: Chicago Sun-Times, January 3, 2022

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 5

Rising Retirements/Transfers Have Cost
Chicago Experience and Leadership
339 (2018) 1000

900
475 (2019)
800
560 (2020) 700

893 (2021) 600

500
4-Yr. Total: 2257
Source: Chicago Sun-Times 1/6/22 400

300

200

100

0
2018 2019 2020 2021

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 6

Police spend too little time on violent crime;
8 out of 10 shootings in Chicago unsolved
Police typically spend just 4% of their time on violent crime. (New York Times, 6/19/20)
(Note: Does not include data on CPD, which has done a “calls for service” analysis but has
not released it.)
Chicago Arrest Rates for Shootings (fatal and non-fatal)

Citywide: 18% (December 2016-July 2021)

Roseland: 8% (January 2020-July 2021)

(Source: Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office)

Total Arrests 2019 (90,606) vs. 2020 (52,326)

Source: CPD Annual Report. 2021 figures not yet published.

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 7

As many as 2600 officers (over 20%)
have recently been out sick.
(Source: Chicago Sun-Times quoting FOP)

THE CITY RESPONSE UNDERMINES MORALE

CANCELLED VACATIONS AND DAYS OFF
LENGTHEN SHIFTS FROM 8 TO 12 HOURS
INCREASE OVERTIME
RISING RATES OF SUICIDE; OTHER SIGNS OF STRESS
MORE POLICE GET SICK
MORE QUIT

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 8

No correlation between gun confiscation and
homicides in Chicago
Guns
Year Homicides
Recovered
2011 7,303 437
2012 7,444 506
2013 6,681 421
2014 6,762 416
2015 6,762 485
2016 8,452 769
2017 8,834 658
2018 7,273 577
2019 7,835 495
2020 11,343 769 SOURCES: CHICAGO CRIME
LAB; CPD ANNUAL REPORTS
SOURCES: CHICAGO CRIME LAB; CPD ANNUAL REPORTS
2021 12,000+ 797
ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 9
False Statements/Bad Approaches
Undermine Confidence in Leadership
Misleading the Public on Electronic Monitoring
“I can’t think of one member of
Mayor Lori Lightfoot and police leaders lean on flawed information to argue the command staff that is
releasing criminal defendants on electronic monitoring worsens violence willing to back him.”
problem” -Chicago Tribune, 1/14/22
-Anonymous CPD Police Supervisor
Talking About The Superintendent
Going After Gang Assets Invites Abuse Chicago Sun-Times, January 19, 2022

“Lightfoot Renews Stalled Push for Plan to Go After Gangs’ Profits as

Opponents Mobilize”–WTTW, 1/13/22

Arrest Quotas Undermine Morale and Lead to Abusive Policing “When threats of demotion
replace steady leadership,
“CPD leaders told to pump up arrests, solve more murders — or face something is very, very wrong.”
demotion, sources say after private meeting with mayor, top cop” –Chicago
Sun-Times, 1/5/22
Retired CPD Lieutenant, Bob Angone
(Sun-Times 1/9/22)

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 10

More Civilian Employees Could Help
Accelerate Reform
Ratio of Sworn to Civilian:

2.4/1 3.5/1 10/1 3.5/1 3.75/1

New York Los Angeles Chicago Houston Philadelphia

Source: Governing Magazine (2016)

Civilians help drive reform; New York and Los Angeles are both 20 years ahead of Chicago
on reform.

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 11

Going Forward: Four Core Strategies

1. RESTORE PATROL 2. RETHINK THE 3. TAKE 4. GIVE YOUNG

AND ACCELERATE ROLE OF POLICE VIOLENCE MEN AT RISK A
REFORMS TO TO FREE THEM PREVENTION PATH INTO THE
BUILD POLICE UP TO FOCUS TO SCALE LEGAL
MORE ON ECONOMY
LEGITIMACY
VIOLENT CRIME

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 12

1. RESTORE PATROL AND POLICE LEGITIMACY
WALK NEIGHBORHOODS – BUILD RELATIONSHIPS – ESTABLISH A POLICE PRESENCE
Give District Commanders the resources they need and hold them accountable.

FOCUS on officer ELIMINATE citywide HIRE MORE CIVILIANS

EXPAND neighborhood
wellness to take care of policing to every officer in unit and put them back to accelerate reform that
our police and get them every neighborhood. in the neighborhoods help restore legitimacy.
back on the beat under district
commanders.

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 13

2. Longer Term: Rethink Policing
Shift many calls to social service & outreach workers and other public safety professionals to
free up police so they can focus on violent crime. Currently we have a pilot co-responder
program for mental health calls. We should go much further.

Traffic Accidents Community Juvenile Mental Health

Complaints Delinquency Calls

Property Crime Other Medical Calls

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 14

3. Take Violence Prevention to Scale
Direct and Indirect Cost of Gun Violence - $7B per year
Police, courts, prisons, health care, loss of jobs and tax revenues

Cost of taking violence prevention to scale - $400M per year

ROI – 19:1 (Source: Joint analysis with Bain Consulting)

2021 Spending (Public and Private Sectors) - $93M

2022 Spending (Public and Private Sectors) - $167M (anticipated)
NOTE: A lot of public money for violence prevention is one-time federal funds. We need a sustained
commitment to violence prevention.

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 15

Scale of Gun Violence
Estimated Number at Risk of Shooting or Being Shot – 25,000
One Neighborhood – North Lawndale
Five Community-Based Organizations – CP4P, CRED, READI, UCAN, NLEN

27 Separate Factions

1,250 Men and Women at Risk

Chicago CRED Scale – 2016-2021

650 Served

330 Hired

200 earned HS diplomas

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 16

4. Public and private sectors must provide job
opportunities for young people at risk

High School Students

Disconnected Youth 16-24
Formerly Incarcerated

Guests:
Richard Klawiter – Partner, DLA Piper Law Firm
Jeremy Jordan – Case Assistant, DLA Piper

ARNE DUNCAN: CHICAGOLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 17