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IJERA Journal
Forecast ing t he direct ion of st ock market index movement using t hree dat a mining t echniqu…
IJERA Journal
St udy of Various Rainfall Est imat ion & Predict ion Techniques Using Dat a Mining
ajer research
ABSTRACT
Crime prediction is an attempt to identify and reducing the future crime. Crime prediction uses past data and
after analyzing data, predict the future crime with location and time. In present days serial criminal cases rapidly
occur so it is an challenging task to predict future crime accurately with better performance. Data mining
technique are very useful to solving Crime detection problem. So the aim of this paper to study various
computational techniques used to predict future crime. This paper provides comparative analysis of Data mining
Techniques for detection and prediction of future crime.
Keywords- Crime Data, Crime Prediction, Data Mining Technique, Predictive Accuracy.
I. INTRODUCTION is measured as follows:
Crime has been a part of society ever since n
x
i
laws were first approved. It is defined as an act ������ = n
committed or omitted in violation of a law forbidding i1
or commanding it and for which punishment is n
imposed upon conviction. y
= i
������ n
Crime is classically unpredictable. It is not
necessarily random, neither does it take place i1
persistently in space or time. A Good theoretical
understanding is needed to provide practical crime Intuitively, Centrography find the mean x-coordinate
prevention solutions that equivalent to specific places and the mean y-coordinate and associate this pair
and times. Crime analysis takes past crime data to with the criminals residence [3].
predict future crime locations and time [1]. Crime
prediction for future crime is a process that find out 1.1.2 Journey to Crime
crime rate change from one year to the next and Journey to crime supports the notion that
project those changes into the future. Crime crimes are likely to occur closer to an offender’s
predictions can be made through both qualitative and home and follow a distance-decay function (DDF)
quantitative methods. Qualitative approaches to with crimes less likely to occur the further away an
forecasting crime, as environmental scanning, offender is from their home base. It is concerned with
scenario writing, are useful in identifying the future the ‘distance of crime’ and that offenders will in
nature of criminal activity. In contrast, perceptible general travel limited distances to commit their
methods are used to predict the future scope of crime crime[4].
and more specifically, crime rates a common method
for develop forecasts is to projects annual crime rate 1.1.3 Routine Activity Theory
trends developed through time series models. This According to Cohen and Felson (1979), the
approach also involve relating past crime trends with union of three elements in time and space are
factors that will influence the future scope of crime required for a crime to occur: a likely offender, a
[2]. suitable target and the absence of a capable guardian
against crimes [5].
1.1 Standard Crime Prediction Techniques
1.1.1 Centrography 1.1.4 Circle Theory
Centrography is the inspection of the descriptive In the circle method, the distances between
statistics used in measurements of central crimes are measured and the two most distant crimes
susceptibility, such as centrality of population or are chosen. Then, a extreme circle is drawn so that
population potential. In Centrography, crimes are both of the points are on the great circle. The
assigned x and y coordinate and the center of mass midpoint of this extreme circle is then the assumed
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Nikhil Dubey et al Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 4, Issue 3( Version 1), March 2014, pp.396-400
location of the criminal's residence and the area V. Fuzzy Time Series
bounded by the great circle is where the criminal
operates. This model is computationally economical 2.1 SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE
and easy to understand. Moreover, it is easy to use Support Vector Machines were introduced
and requires very little training in order to master the by Vladimir Vapnik and colleagues. The first main
technique. However it has some drawback. paper seems to be (Vapnik, 1995) [7].
For example, the area given by this method Support Vector Machines (SVM) have
is often very large and other studies have shown that recently gained prominence in the field of machine
a smaller area success. Additionally, a few outliers learning and pattern classification. Classification is
can generate an even larger search area, thereby achieved by realizing a linear or non-linear separation
further slowing the police effort [6]. surface in the input space.
Hot-Spots Prediction Using Support Vector
1.2 Advantages of Crime Prediction Techniques: Machine [8]. This technique used Support vector
Machine for Crime prediction and experiment the
The advantages of crime prediction following approach: for a given percentage of the
Risk is reduced.
subset of the crime dataset to label; and then based on
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Nikhil Dubey et al Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 4, Issue 3( Version 1), March 2014, pp.396-400
The effectiveness of technique has been Illustrated in (5) Set the threshold of accept probability of final
depth on Indian crime dataset provided by the Indian geographic profile, �� . And plot the area where the
National Crime Records Bureau The technique probability is greater than threshold.
Multivariate Time Series Clustering based on (6) Back to step (4) if k is not the maximum number
Dynamic Time Wrapping and Minkowski model are of crime.
efficient for finding similar crime trend and also The result of this technique is impressive and
predict them properly. prediction accuracy is very high. This approach
efficiently use geographical factor of crime and used
2.3 BAYESIAN NETWORK them for future prediction.
A Bayesian network, belief network, Bayes
network, or probabilistic directed acyclic graphical 2.4 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
model is a probabilistic graphical model (a type In 1943, McCulloch and Pitts, gives the first
of demographical model) that represents a set model of artificial neuron. According to Nigrin, A
of random variables and their conditional neural network is a circuit composed of a very large
dependencies via a directed acyclic graph. Bayesian number of s processing elements that are called
networks are directed acyclic graphs whose random Neuron. Each element works only on local
variables represent nodes in the Bayesian sense: they information. Furthermore each element operates
may be perceptible quantities, untapped variables, nonparellerliy, thus there is no system clock.
unknown parameters or supposition. Edges represent Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and
conditional dependencies, nodes that are not disorder[12]. This technique introduces for crime
connected represent the variables that incident prediction by concentrate on geographical
are conditionally independent of each other. Each areas of concern that outshine traditional policing
node is link with a probability function that takes as boundaries. The computerized procedure employ a
input a particular set of values for the geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to
nodes parent variable and relinquish the probability identify clusters with relative high levels of crime hot
of the variable represented by the node [10]. spots. This collection gives sufficient data for
A Novel Serial Crime Prediction Model training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of
Based on Bayesian Learning Theory[11]. This modeling trends within them. The approach to ANN
technique introduce a novel serial crime prediction specification and assessment is enhanced by
model using Bayesian learning theory. Author mainly application of a novel approach, the Gamma test.
studied the factor related to geographic report. For The results of this technique are satisfactory using
each factor, by using a discrete distance decay artificial neural network and gamma test provide the
function which derives from the crime prediction facility to predict future crime.
theory Journey to Crime, create a geographic profile
which is a probability distribution of being the next 2.5 FUZZY TIME SERIES
crime site on known geographical locations. The The Fuzzy time series forecasting was
concluding prediction is made by combining all originally originate by Song & Chissom. They
geographic profiles weighted by effect functions proposed it in a series of papers to forecast student
which can be adjusted adaptively based on enrolments at the University of Alabama. The Fuzzy
Bayesian learning theory. time series models developed by Song and Chissom
By testing this technique on a crime dataset were associated by high computational overheads due
of a serial crime happened in Gansu, China, can to complex matrix operations [13]. To reduce the
successfully capture the offender's intentions and computational overhead, Chen [14] simplified the
locate the neighborhood of the next crime scene process and proposed a simplified model that
The working step of this technique are as follow. includes only simple arithmetic operations.
(1) Download the map of Baiyin city from Google. Applicability of Soft computing technique
(2) Make the populated parts of the map gridded into for crime Forecasting A Preliminary Investigation
number of rectangles with the same size which will [15] In this technique, Author investigated
help a lot to calculate the distribution in (3). applicability of Fuzzy Time series technique for
(3) Make the geographic portrait of each factor crime forecasting. The scope of present technique is
selected above by the discrete distance decay limited to probe the suitability of fuzzy time series
function. method to predict the crime and to provide practical
(4) With the first ��ℎ (k≥1) crime sites known, we computational techniques. In this study, seventeen
combine each factor's geographic profile by the years actual historic crime data of Delhi city have
dynamic prediction model . been used and implemented the Fuzzy Time Series
method on three different sets of universe of
discourses obtained by partitioning it into five
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Nikhil Dubey et al Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 4, Issue 3( Version 1), March 2014, pp.396-400
intervals (Scheme-I), ten intervals (Scheme-II) and approach used in this technique are also worked
twenty intervals (Scheme-III). The computed forecast properly even if some data are not available.
shows good accuracy. The result of this technique In the next section the observation of the
are satisfactory for predicting the future crime. The survey are presented.
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