Bloomberg Webinar Commodities: Boom, Bust, Boom?: Mike Mcglone Aanand Venkatramanan

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Bloomberg Webinar

Commodities: boom,
bust, boom?
Mike McGlone Aanand Venkatramanan
Senior Commodity Strategist Head of ETF Investment Strategies
Bloomberg Intelligence LGIM

June 17, 2020


June 2020 Legal & General Investment Management

Bloomberg Webinar

Commodities: boom, bust, boom?


Accessing diversified basket of commodities through ETFs
ETFInvestments@lgim.com

Intended for professional clients only. Not to be distributed to retail clients.


BCOM Spot recovering from support line?

Source: Bloomberg
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Supercontango – is the worst over?

4
Source: Bloomberg
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Commodities versus other asset classes
Ranking of Yearly Returns
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US US US Commo US Global US US US US US US
Commod REITs Commod REITs REITs REITs REITs Commod REITs Commod REITs REITs REITs REITs Commod
Equity Equity Equity d Dollar HY Equity Dollar Equity Dollar Equity Equity
16.52% 35.27% 27.24% 26.37% 13.93% 37.13% 31.58% 30.24% 35.06% 25.31% 27.95% 8.28% 19.70% 28.03% 23.14%
1 37.58% 33.36% 28.58% 33.30% 6.01% 59.40% 32.39% 9.26% 21.83% 4.40% 31.49% 19.46%
EM EM World World US EM Global Global US World World US US Global World US Global World US
Cash REITs Commod Commod Commod REITs Cash REITs
Bonds Bonds Equity Equity Bonds Bonds HY HY Dollar Equity Equity Bonds Bonds HY Equity Equity HY Equity Bonds
6.50% 20.26% 21.16% 41.21% 26.40% 2.83% 2.81% 28.66%
23.16% 28.33% 22.78% 23.56% 8.44% 12.26% 32.42% 13.17% 12.76% 17.95% 7.09% 5.24% 7.84% 19.60% 24.10% 13.69% 14.27% 20.11% 14.94%
2
World Global US World US EM EM US US World World EM US US EM US EM EM Global US US US Global US World EM
Cash
Equity HY Equity Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Dollar Bonds Equity Equity Bonds Equity Bonds Bonds Equity Bonds Bonds HY Dollar Equity Equity HY Bonds Equity Bonds
1.43%
3.36% 20.54% 22.96% 14.17% 8.69% 23.07% 13.73% 6.56% 10.25% 30.81% 12.84% 12.27% 15.79% 6.97% 34.23% 15.06% 6.97% 17.95% 7.33% 12.79% 1.38% 11.96% 10.43% 0.01% 25.19% 8.96%
3
World Global EM US US Global Global US US EM Global Global US US EM EM EM EM
REITs Cash Commod REITs Commod REITs REITs REITs REITs
Equity HY Bonds Equity Bonds HY HY Equity Equity Bonds HY HY Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
3.17% 5.07% 12.38% 12.16% 14.85% 27.99% 2.86% 8.67% 8.83%
18.70% 17.85% 13.19% 21.04% 11.63% 2.26% 4.14% 28.68% 5.49% -14.75% 14.82% 3.12% 16.00% 5.97% 1.29% 9.88% -2.46% 13.11%
4
US US World US Global Global US EM EM World Global EM Global World EM US World US EM EM Global US
Cash REITs Cash REITs REITs
Equity Bonds Equity Dollar HY HY Dollar Bonds Bonds Equity HY Bonds HY Equity Bonds Equity Equity Dollar Bonds Bonds HY Dollar
1.88% 3.82% 0.61% 8.63% -4.04%
1.32% 18.47% 11.72% 13.08% -4.82% 10.43% 7.55% 26.93% 11.89% 7.56% 13.69% 5.16% -26.88% 26.98% 12.84% 2.11% 13.18% 0.33% 4.76% 8.17% 12.56% 5.64%
5
US Global US US EM US US EM US World US US World US World Global Global
REITs Cash Cash Cash Commod Cash Commod Cash Commod Commod
Bonds HY Dollar Dollar Bonds Equity Equity Bonds Equity Equity Dollar Bonds Equity Bonds Equity HY HY
15.27% 5.56% 6.40% 1.38% 18.95% 4.70% -28.92% 0.25% 7.56% 10.37%
-2.92% 12.84% -5.50% 8.18% 1.43% 10.88% 4.91% 9.96% 26.46% 9.55% 1.46% 4.22% 2.93% 0.55% 5.32% -4.06% 3.12%
6
Global US US EM Global US US US US Global US US US US Global US US US US World
Commod Cash Cash Cash Cash Commod Cash
HY Dollar Bonds Bonds HY Equity Dollar Bonds Bonds HY Equity Bonds Bonds Bonds HY Dollar Bonds Equity Bonds Equity
8.25% 6.00% 4.54% 5.36% 0.58% 3.73% 0.26%
-6.16% 3.96% 9.65% -11.60% 1.04% -11.89% -12.76% 4.10% 4.34% 3.16% -37.00% 5.93% 6.54% -2.02% -2.72% 3.63% 3.54% -4.38% 8.72% 2.90%
7
US US US World World Global US US US World EM Global World US World
Cash Commod Cash REITs Cash Cash REITs Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash
Dollar Bonds Equity Equity Equity HY Bonds Dollar Dollar Equity Bonds HY Equity Bonds Equity
5.63% 3.76% 5.81% -17.50% 1.15% 2.56% -37.73% 0.25% 0.31% 1.69% 1.91% 0.32%
-8.38% -0.82% -9.10% -17.83% -21.06% 3.59% 4.33% -8.31% 1.50% -7.62% -4.12% 0.01% -2.74% 2.65% -10.44%
8
EM US US World US US US US US World US US US US
Commod Commod REITs Commod REITs Cash Commod Commod Commod Commod Cash Commod Commod
Bonds Dollar Bonds Equity Equity Dollar Dollar Bonds Dollar Equity Dollar Dollar Dollar Dollar
-9.83% -19.76% -4.62% -18.25% -15.69% 0.30% -8.12% -8.65% -17.04% -18.40% 1.00% -10.55% -15.60%
-13.74% -4.46% 3.63% -14.05% -22.10% -14.66% -6.98% 2.43% -8.25% -42.08% -4.24% -0.51% -9.87% 0.22%
9

Subprime
Dotcom Crisis Moderate to high growth Low inflationary period Last 5 years
Crisis

5 Source: Bloomberg, LGIM as of close 29 May 2020. Returns are based on the total return indices. Indices representing the relevant markets are: World Equity: MSCI World
Index, REITS: FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS Total Return Index; US Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD; Global HY: Bloomberg Barclays
Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Unhedged; US Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Total Return Index Value Unhedged; US Dollar: The US Dollar Index;
Commodities: Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index.
Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Bloomberg Webinar

Commodities: boom,
bust, boom?

June 17, 2020


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7
Broad Commodity
Deflation Leadership
Mike McGlone

Except for Gold, Low Tide Likely


Distant for Broad Commodities
Gold Is Riding the Bull-Market Wave

9
Dollar-Gold Following Euro-Term Trajectory

10
Gold on Path Toward $3,000 If QE a Guide

11
Diminishing Fed-to-Equity Returns Support Gold

12
Gold/S&P 500 Ratio Set to Revert to the Mean

13
Gold Bull Appears Similar to the 1970s, 2000s

14
Gold's Enduring Upper Hand vs. Almost Everything, Notably Copper

15
Lower Copper, Commodities and Bond Yields

16
Copper Bear Market Despite Rising Equities

17
Copper's Return to Normal Is a Bear Market

18
Declining Bond Yields and Copper vs. Gold

19
Metals Shining vs. Commodities, Equities

20
A Catalyst for Gold Above $1,700 -- WTI Crude Dropping From $40

21
Enduring Trends: Gold Up, Crude Down

Deflationary Indicators
Set to Stay the Course

22
Elevated Crude Bear-Market Bounce Risks

Diminishing Return Risks


to Declining Rates

23
For WTI Crude Oil, $40 Is the New $50

24
Realism Set to Prevail vs. Crude Demand Optimism

Brent Was Headed Lower


Before Demand Plunge

25
Crude Oil's Responsive Sellers Set to Prevail

Oil Rollover Risks Elevated


With Small Caps

26
Crude Spikes Should Find Responsive Sellers

27
Lower Crude Oil Is Fuel for Higher Gold

28
Agriculture Vulnerable on the Back of Corn

29
On the Rise Since 2008: Gold vs. BCOM

Elusive End in Sight:


Gold vs. Commodities

30
Enduring Downtrends: Commodities, Bond Yields

31
Declining China GDP, Commodities and More QE

32
Strong Dollar & Equities vs. Weak Commodities

33
BCOM Appears Elevated vs. Rallying Greenback

34
Commodities Have Little Chance If Stocks Flip

35
From Rivals to Companions - Commodities vs. The Stock Market

36
Forward Indexes Outperform

37
Gold, Bitcoin, Crude Oil Await Fed Discount vs. 1980s Premium

38
Introduction to Commodity Indices
Plain vanilla versus enhanced indices
Seeking better returns through enhancements

Plain Vanilla (Beta) Indices Enhanced (Beta) Indices

• Typically use front-month futures contracts, rolled • Designed to minimise futures roll costs
monthly
• Use a range of optimisation techniques, for
• Sell futures contract as it approaches expiry
example
• Buy the next month’s contract
• Using a range of futures contracts for each commodity
• Exposed to the shape of the futures curve (e.g. 1m, 3m, 1 year)
• Selecting specific contracts based on shape of the
• Suffer from contango
futures curve or other idiosyncratic properties
• Benefit from backwardation
• Rolling more frequently/over extended periods to reduce
• Can be over-exposed to market impact market impact

• Roll over a short, fixed period each month • Typically outperform beta indices but are more
complex.
• Typically underperform commodities spot prices

Examples: Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), S&P GSCI Examples: Optimised roll yield, multi-factor indices
(formerly the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index), Rogers indices

40
L&G commodities product offering
L&G Longer Dated All Commodities
L&G All Commodities UCITS ETF L&G Commodity Index Fund L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced
UCITS ETF L&G Longer Dated All Commodities ex- (SICAV) Commodities UCITS ETF*
Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETF

Broad-based exposure to
Broad-based exposure to Broad-based exposure to
Underlying Broad-based exposure to commodities commodities with enhancement
commodities as an asset commodities with roll yield
Index with a potential lower roll yield effect strategies able to boost
class enhancement
performance

Key Core benchmark with fixed Core benchmark with fixed weights between Single factor based solution Multi-factor based solution that allows
Feature weights between each each commodity as determined by with BCOM weights for varying the weights of each
commodity as determined Bloomberg commodity away from BCOM weights
by Bloomberg

What it Tracks the commodity Tracks the commodity futures contract Tracks the commodity futures Tracks the commodity futures contract
does? futures contract with the whose expiry is deferred by 3 months as set contract whose expiry date is whose expiry date is dynamically
nearest expiry date as set out by Bloomberg dynamically determined by the determined according to a factor
out by Bloomberg shape of the forward curve specific to such commodity & tilts its
weight

How does it BCOM index: BCOM longer dated index: a simple BCOM roll select index: an Barclays multi-strategy enhanced
differ from the a core commodity adjustment to the core benchmark to provide additional dynamic adjustment index: an enhanced solution that
benchmark? benchmark that invests increased stability and better risk adjusted to the core benchmark to provides optimal exposure the
into the most liquid and return mitigate potential negative roll commodities asset class whilst aiming
heavily produced yield for better risk adjusted to reduce drawdowns in order to
commodities BCOM longer dated ex Agriculture and return extract superior returns
Livestocks index: replicates the BCOM
longer dated index but excludes agricultural
commodities and livestocks

Enhanced Beta Enhanced Beta


Beta Beta+
(single factor) (Multi-factor)

41
Source: LGIM. *The L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodity ETF is pending listing.
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Breakdown of total returns

Bloomberg All Commodities Index Bloomberg 3M Forward Commodities Index

50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
-10% -10%
-20% -20%
-30% -30%
-40% -40%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Spot return Roll yield Collateral yield Total return Spot return Roll yield Collateral yield Total return

42
Source: LGIM, Barclays.
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Seasonal enhancement
Cumulative outperformance of seasonal enhancement
over BCOM, using Natural Gas as an example
• Some commodities have historically exhibited a 35%
seasonal pattern due to supply and demand 30%
characteristics, for example, prices of natural gas
25%
tend to be higher during winters than during the
summer months. 20%
15%
• The seasonal contract typically is the one that 10%
tends to be the most liquid and provides 5%
exposure during a key point of the production or
0%
demand cycle.
-5%
-10%
US Natural Gas Consumption Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18
3500

3000
Seasonal Enhancement Seasonal Contract
2500
Heating Oil December
2000 Gasoil December
Natural Gas December
1500

1000
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

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Source: LGIM, Barclays.
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Roll yield enhancement
Cumulative outperformance of roll yield enhancement
over BCOM, using WTI Crude Oil as an example
• When futures curves are downward-sloping (i.e. 30%
backwardated), holding a long futures contract
position may be beneficial to an investor as futures 25%
price may increase as it moves close to expiry.
20%
The opposite is true when curves are upward-
sloping (i.e. contango). 15%

10%
• The roll yield strategy aims to maximise positive or
minimise negative roll returns by dynamically 5%
selecting the optimal contract.
0%
Price
Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18

Roll Yield enhancement


WTI Crude
Brent Crude
Unleaded Gasoline
Aluminium
US Copper
Price increase
Nickel
Zinc
Time to expiry

44
Source: LGIM, Barclays.
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
Momentum Alpha enhancement
Cumulative outperformance of momentum alpha
enhancement over BCOM, using Live Cattle as an example
40%
• The Momentum Alpha strategy seeks to
capitalise on the recent trends exhibited by price 35%
of futures contracts of certain commodities. 30%

25%
• The index take a long position in the futures 20%
contract with the highest one-year annual
outperformance compared to the front contract. 15%

10%

5%

0%

Illustrative example: -5%


Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18
Front 1M 2M 5M
Index Value
Contract Deferred Deferred Deferred
Day 1 100 100 100 100
Momentum Alpha Enhancement
Wheat Coffee
Day 2 101 102 105 103
Kansas Wheat Sugar
Corn Cotton
Annualised
1% 2% 5% 3% Soybean Live Cattle
return
Soybean Oil Lean Hog
Annualised
- 1% 4% 2% Soybean Meal
outperformance

45
Source: LGIM, Barclays.
The value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up; you may not get back the amount you
originally invested.
L&G All Commodities UCITS ETF
Product data Tax information
Listing date 11 July 2017 UK reporting status Yes

Currency (base) USD EU savings directives Out-of-scope


ISA eligible Yes
Currency hedged No, this product is not protected against adverse currency movements
SIPP eligible Yes
AUM $50 million
CTF (UK) Yes
USD IE00BF0BCP69 BCOM LN
Legal information
ISIN/Ticker GBP IE00BF0BCP69 BCOG LN
Securities regulator Central Bank of Ireland
EUR IE00BF0BCP69 ETLF GY
Legal structure ETF
Underlying Index Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (USD) Legal form Shares
Index Ticker BCOMTR Index Synthetic – unfunded
Replication method
swap backed by collateral
Physical delivery No
Management and administration Short / leveraged No
Issuer Legal & General UCITS ETF Plc UCITS Yes
Registrar Computershare Investor Services (Ireland) Ltd Sharia compliant No
Trustee The Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV Domicile Ireland
Collateral manager The Bank of New York Mellon Fees

Registered Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, TER 0.15%
countries Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom Entry / exit fee None on exchange

46
Source: Bloomberg, LGIM. AUM as at 10 June 2020.
L&G Longer Dated All Commodities UCITS ETF
Product data Tax information
Listing date 18 March 2010 UK reporting status Yes
Currency (base) USD EU savings directives Out-of-scope
Currency hedged No, this product is not protected against adverse currency movements ISA eligible Yes
AUM $416 million SIPP eligible Yes
USD IE00B4WPHX27 COMF LN CTF (UK) Yes
EUR IE00B4WPHX27 ETL2 GY
Legal information
ISIN/Ticker EUR IE00B4WPHX27 COMF NA
Securities regulator Central Bank of Ireland
EUR IE00B4WPHX27 COMF IM
Legal structure ETF
CHF IE00B4WPHX27 COMF SW
Underlying Index Bloomberg Commodity 3 Month Forward Index (USD) Legal form Shares

Index Ticker BCOMF3T Index Synthetic – unfunded


Replication method
swap backed by collateral
Physical delivery No
Management and administration Short / leveraged No
Issuer Legal & General UCITS ETF Plc UCITS Yes
Registrar Computershare Investor Services (Ireland) Ltd Sharia compliant No
Trustee The Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV Domicile Ireland
Collateral manager The Bank of New York Mellon Fees

Registered Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, TER 0.30%
countries Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Switzerland Entry / exit fee None on exchange

47
Source: Bloomberg, LGIM. AUM as at 10 June 2020.
Thank You

Contact the Analyst: Contact the Analyst:


Mike McGlone Aanand Venkatramanan
Senior Commodity Strategist Head of ETF Investment Strategies
Bloomberg Intelligence LGIM
Tel: +1 (212) 617 7650 Tel: +44 203 124 3064
Email: mmcglone8@bloomberg.net Email: aanand.venkatramanan@lgim.com
or ETFInvestments@lgim.com

Access BI Research: Access L&G ETFs:


BI COMD <GO> www.lgimetf.com

48
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