Case Study insight: “Want of a Bolt”

By: K. Krishnamurthy
Deputy Manager (Safety)-ARDC

1.Back ground of the Case Study: In the present study, A research and
Development program of Aero Engine was delayed due to persistent
failures during testing in the test Bed. The current modification is 7th
modification which required changing attachments of lugs to the gear
box casting structure. However, the new modification necessitated a
continues close follow up of 5 months to appraise the Foundry Division,
as the priorities of production division will be different. Further it was
observed that there snags in all the four castings that required to be
cleared and owing to these certain risks and uncertainties which may
further delay the project Which eventually lead to huge cost over runs of
the project. In order to get the gear box ready for accelerated test bed
Tests, GM of the Engine Development program wanted to know all the
Risks are suitably addressed for success of the project with minimum
time and cost overruns. Further, The new gear box requires special bolts
for installation different from previous. A decision of Making by reducing
the diameter of existing bolts or buying from OEM or designing the new
also involves certain risks of failure and time and cost overruns. Hence
GM wanted to resolve the issues with expert committee of people in the
company.

2. The Risk management principle in the case study

(learning from the study)
This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to risk management
through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk
factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining
probability and severity, and various alternative responses are
generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The
expected monetary values can be then derived for each alternative in a
decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the
decision process in managing risks.

3. Recommendation:

A Risk, managent team shall be Constituted with experts and A Project

Risk manager shall be responsible to draw the decision models
eventually submit to Top management.